Putinâ€™s Visit to North Korea and Vietnam, and China-South Korea 2+2 Dialogue

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CWA # 1355, 24 June 2024

The World This Week

Putinâ€™s Visit to North Korea and Vietnam, and China-South Korea 2+2 Dialogue

GP Team

The World This Week #268, Vol. 6 No. 22, 23 June 2024

Lakshmi Karlekar, Sayeka Ghosh and Akhil Ajith

Putin's Visit to North Korea, and its Implications
Lakshmi Karlekar

What happened?
On 19 June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Pyongyang, his first visit to North Korea since 2000. Putin also met Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong, and top aide and ruling party secretary Jo Yong Won. Putin also visited Pyongyang's Church of the Life-Giving Trinity and presented an icon of the Trinity to the Orthodox church.

Kim celebrated the "immortality of the invincible DPRK-Russia relations that are the envy of the world" at the dinner before Putin left for Vietnam. Putin said: "A close neighbour is better than a distant relative."

On 19 June, the two leaders signed a Defence Partnership Agreement that included a pledge to “provide mutual assistance in case of aggression.” This agreement essentially revives a 1961 mutual defence treaty that was supplanted by a much weaker one in 2000. It states that it requires both North Korea and Russia to render immediate military assistance to each other when targeted by armed aggression. The deal could upend the balance of power in East Asia, strengthening the growing security ties between the US and its allies South Korea and Japan and posing difficult questions for China. Additionally, the agreement makes it even more challenging to stop North Korea's nuclear aspirations

On 20 June 2024, South Korean activists claimed to have sent 20 balloons containing 300,000 propaganda leaflets, 5,000 USB sticks containing South Korean pop songs and TV dramas, and 3,000 US dollar bills from the South Korean border town of Paju. On 21 June, South Korea’s soldiers fired warning shots following reports that North Korean soldiers had crossed the border for the third time during the month.

What is the background?

First, deepening Russia and North Korea relationship. Since Moscow started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Pyongyang (according to the US and South Korea) has been providing Moscow armaments for use in Ukraine in return for technological know-how to advance weaponry development as Kim modernises his nation's armed forces.

Second, Putin’s visit amidst the tensions in the Korean peninsula. Seoul has been using speakers critical of North Korea. It has been observed that North Korea is erecting walls at certain locations along the border following reports that several of its soldiers suffered fatal injuries while removing rubble in mine-filled areas. The US has expressed "extreme concern" over Putin's threat to arm North Korea. As tensions along the border increased, South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador to express disapproval of the agreement with North Korea. Additionally, Seoul has indicated that it may think about arming Ukraine. This has infuriated Russian Ambassador Georgy Zinoviev, who has stated that attempts to intimidate and blackmail Russia are intolerable, according to Russia's Tass news agency. During their meeting, Russia was urged to immediately stop its military cooperation with North Korea, and South Korea's Vice-Foreign Minister, Kim Hong-Kyun, denounced the treaty.

North Korea seeks to purchase advanced technologies such as fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armoured vehicles, building materials, and equipment for ballistic missile production from Moscow. The United States and South Korea claim to have evidence that Pyongyang has already supplied Russia with a sizable quantity of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. North Korea has responded to the accusations by labelling them as "absurd."

What does it mean?
At a time when both Russia and North Korea are facing international isolation, Putin is making his first visit to the capital of North Korea in 24 years, a visit that could drastically alter decades' worth of ties between the two countries. According to Russian media, Putin stated that Moscow is opposing the US and its allies' hegemonic, imperialist policies.

According to North Korea's official news agency, KCNA, Putin's visit shows the strength and endurance of the two nations' friendship and unity, and their partnership is an "engine for accelerating the building of a new multi-polar world". He also pledged to "build an equal and indivisible security architecture in Eurasia" and "develop alternative trade and mutual settlement mechanisms not controlled by the West." On the eve of the visit, Putin also declared in a presidential order that Moscow intended to execute a "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" alongside North Korea.

Putin’s Visit to Vietnam: Reinforcing Strategic Partnership and Regional Influence
Sayeka Ghosh

What happened?

On 19 June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a state visit to Vietnam, his fifth visit to Vietnam following the 2001 and 2012 partnerships. The visit, coinciding with the 30th anniversary of the Treaty on Principles of Friendly Relations, saw the signing of 12 cooperation agreements across various sectors, including education where Russia agreed to increase scholarships for Vietnamese students, particularly in basic sciences and cultural arts, transport, justice, customs, finance, science-technology boosting plans for a Southeastern Centre of Artificial Intelligence and energy sector where both sides agreed to create favourable conditions for their businesses to effectively carry out existing projects and expand investment in oil and gas. These agreements underscore the commitment of both countries to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership.

During his two-day visit, Putin engaged in high-level meetings with Vietnamese leaders, including General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, President To Lam, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, and Chairman of the National Assembly Tran Thanh Man. The discussions focused on enhancing bilateral cooperation across multiple domains, from economic ties to defence and security collaborations.

The two leaders signed a Defence Partnership Agreement that included a pledge to “provide mutual assistance in case of aggression.” This agreement revived a 1961 mutual defence treaty that was supplanted by a much weaker one in 2000. It states that it requires both North Korea and Russia to render immediate military assistance to each other when targeted by armed aggression. The deal could upend the balance of power in East Asia, strengthening the growing security ties between the US and its allies South Korea and Japan and posing difficult questions for China. Additionally, the agreement makes it even more challenging to stop North Korea's nuclear aspirations.

What is the background?
First, the the decades-long bilateral relationship. The 30-year Treaty on Principles of Friendly Relations, signed in 1994, laid the foundation for the current comprehensive strategic partnership. This partnership has evolved from Russia's support during Vietnam's struggle for independence to present-day cooperation in various fields, including energy, defence, and education. Russia's position as one of Vietnam's top priority partners in foreign policy stems from the above historical context. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, provided crucial support to Vietnam during its fight for independence and subsequent development. This historical backing has translated into a modern partnership that encompasses economic, military, and technological cooperation.

Second, Russia’s “Look East” policy and Vietnam's strategic importance. Russia's "Look East" policy, particularly its focus on China, represents a strategic pivot away from the West. This shift has been accelerated by tensions with the West, following the Ukraine conflict. By strengthening ties with China and other Asian countries, Russia aims to diversify its economic partnerships and geopolitical alliances. In this context, Vietnam offers Russia several key advantages. As a rapidly growing economy in Southeast Asia, Vietnam provides Russia with expanded market access and investment opportunities. Vietnam's strategic location in the South China Sea also enhances Russia's regional influence. Vietnam's longstanding relationship with Russia, coupled with its policy of maintaining balanced international relations, makes it an ideal partner for Russia's broader Asian strategy. Vietnam can offer Russia a friendly foothold in ASEAN, cooperation in energy and defence sectors, and support in international forums, all while helping Russia to counterbalance Western influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

What does it mean?
First, Putin’s visit opens significant potential for trade growth and investment opportunities. The ambitious goal of reaching USD 15 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 reflects the complementary nature of the two economies. Russia's expertise in energy and technology aligns well with Vietnam's developmental needs, while Vietnam's agricultural products and manufacturing capabilities offer attractive prospects for Russian markets.

Second, Putin’s visit strengthens Russia's position in the Asia-Pacific region. By deepening ties with Vietnam, Russia will gain a stronger foothold in Southeast Asia, potentially balancing against other major powers in the region. This strategic partnership will allow Russia to project influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood and participate more actively in regional affairs.

Third, Vietnam’s delicate balancing act. While strengthening ties with Russia, Vietnam also maintains its policy of independence and self-reliance, carefully navigating its relationships with other major powers like the United States and China. This approach aligns with Vietnam's “bamboo diplomacy,” which aims to maintain flexibility in foreign relations while preserving national interests.

China-South Korea 2+2 Dialogue
Akhil Ajith

What happened?
On 18 June, the first vice-ministerial level diplomatic and security “2+2” talks were held between China and South Korea in Seoul. The talks were co-chaired by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, Deputy Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of the Central Military Commission Zhang Baoqun, and South Korea’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Hong-kyun, Director General of the International Policy Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense Lee Seung-bum.
South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concerns about President Putin’s visit to North Korea, the defence treaty, and Pyongyang’s aggression. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson said that Putin’s visit to North Korea would bring peace and stability to the Korean peninsula.

What is the background?
First, a background to the 2+2 talks. Set up at the director-general level in 2002, the 2+2 dialogue was adopted as a key framework to enhance bilateral relations. The dialogue was upgraded to the vice-ministerial dialogue in 2020. In May 2024, the 2+2 dialogue was agreed on the sidelines of the trilateral dialogue between China, South Korea, and Japan. The dialogue includes track 1.5 dialogue between government and non-government officials. The dialogue’s main goal was to enhance the overall economic ties between the two countries.

Second, China-South Korea economic relations. For South Korea, China is the second most important trading partner, as its exports to Beijing in 2023 were USD 124.8 billion, a 20 per cent decrease. Meanwhile, imports from China reached 142.8 billion in 2023. According to Bloomberg data, South Korea’s FDI into China fell by 78.1 per cent to USD 1.87 billion in 2023. The decline in FDI results from declining car sales in China, followed by geopolitical tensions, intense price competition, and the rapid transition to electric vehicles. Both countries share the benefits of supply and value chain integration with each other on many products.

What does it mean?
First, the search for common ground. During the 2+2 talks, both sides had serious differences on key issues, such as Taiwan and North Korea, affecting their bilateral relations for many years. China’s demand for South Korea to adhere to the One-China principle and avoid any economic and political links with the Taiwanese government is non-negotiable for Beijing.

For South Korea, the threat from North Korea is non-negotiable as it considers a serious threat to its security. These issues loom over every bilateral discussion, widening the trust and confidence between the two sides.

TWTW Regional Round-ups

News from around the World
Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith, Sayeka Ghosh, Mugdha Chaturvedi, Ayan Datta, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Cris Fernando, Shilpa Joseph, Sanjay Manivanan, Ken B Varghese, Govind Anoop

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Celebrations on 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties with Malaysia
On 20 June, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, on his visit to Malaysia, stated that China hoped to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties with Malaysia and mentioned Chinese and Malaysian relations at the forefront among regional countries. The two leaders have agreed that China and relevant countries should independently solve the disputes in the South China Sea, manage disputes and differences, and promote dialogue and cooperation. Li also met the King of Malaysia, Sultan Ibrahim, and attended a ground-breaking ceremony at a construction site for the East Coast Rail Link, part of China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI). China-Malaysia relations have been playing a pioneering and exemplary role for other ASEAN countries. Li’s visit comes as tensions in the South China Sea have escalated due to the continued provocations by the Philippines with support from the US. As one of the claimant countries in the South China Sea dispute, Malaysia is focused on properly managing the situation and controlling disputes. China-Malaysia signed a range of agreements on 19 June, renewing a five-year economic cooperation pact and allowing fresh durians.

China: Berlin urges Beijing to participate in global climate finance
On 20 June, State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action at the Federal Foreign Office, Jennifer Lee Morgan, stated that Germany would drive China to participate in global climate finance by helping poor countries with their mitigation and adaptation measures. She also expressed that it is “very important” for the group of seven developed countries and other large economies, including China, to take the lead and make contributions. Germany has been having talks with China to “have the capacity to contribute, especially to multilateral funds.” Morgan stated: “The representatives will be looking to see how we can be working together to accelerate the implementation of China's measures to help keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial level in sight.” Germany is cooperating with China on a stable grid and energy efficiency. Morgan commented that Germany has been working on a bilateral collaboration with Japan and also mentioned that Germany has been trying to avoid over-reliance on Chinese production and technologies.

China: Xi Jinping stresses “national unity” on his visit to a Tibetan temple in Qinghai
On 19 June, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited a middle school for Golok Tibetans and a Tibetan Buddhist temple in Xining, the capital of Qinghai. He called for national unity at a Tibetan Buddhist temple as Tibet became a point of contention again in its relations with the US. The temple has been a key to Beijing’s communication with Tibetan Buddhist leaders since 1951. Xi’s visit was reportedly focused on local efforts to deepen education to forge a strong sense of community for the nation. It also aimed to strengthen love for country and religion. He met government officials and provincial members of the Communist Party and stressed building national unity in the province concentrated with ethnic minorities. He also discussed the mission of the province to preserve ecological security as the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau has a rich, diverse but fragile ecosystem. The President said: “Provincial leaders should accelerate the construction of a world-class Salt Lake industrial base and make the province a national clean-energy industry highland, an international ecotourism destination, and green energy and agricultural and livestock product export base.”

EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC THIS WEEK
Japan: Tokyo and Wellington approve security agreement to exchange classified information
On 20 June, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his New Zealand counterpart Christopher Luxon reached a substantive accord on an information security agreement, allowing for the sharing of classified data between their nations. The leaders, meeting in Tokyo, also agreed to advance discussions on a bilateral acquisition and cross-servicing agreement to facilitate military supply exchanges. Kishida expressed his expectation for enhanced security and defence ties, while Luxon emphasised collaboration on regional issues. Both leaders acknowledged the importance of communication with Australia and South Korea in promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific. The prime ministers agreed to cooperate on an upcoming Pacific island countries summit hosted by Japan. Additionally, Luxon announced two significant business developments where New Zealand's Fabrum will supply Toyota with its liquid hydrogen storage system, and Japan's Obayashi will acquire a 50 per cent stake in Eastland Generation for approximately NZD 500 million to support renewable energy operations.

South Korea: To consider supplying arms to Ukraine amid Russia-North Korea agreement
On 21 June, South Korea reassessed its stance on providing weapons to Ukraine following the mutual defence pact signed between North Korea and Russia. National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin stated that the decision would be influenced by Russia's future approach to its relations with North Korea. This marks a potential shift from South Korea's previous policy of only supplying non-lethal aid to Ukraine. A presidential official emphasised: “There are various options for providing weapons, and our position... depends on how Russia approaches the situation going forward.” Possible arms under consideration include 155-mm artillery shells and air defence systems. In response to South Korea's deliberations, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine would be a “big mistake.” South Korean officials are maintaining strategic ambiguity about specific weapon types, likely as a diplomatic tactic to pressure Moscow against transferring key military technology to Pyongyang.

South Korea: Hanwha Group acquires US Philly shipyard
On 21 June, South Korea's Hanwha Group made a USD 100 million investment to acquire Philly Shipyard, marking the first entry of a Korean company into the US shipbuilding sector. The acquisition, involving Hanwha's defence units Systems and Ocean, aims to tap into the US naval market and expand its global presence. Philly Shipyard, established in 1997, has been a major player in constructing large US Jones Act commercial ships and training vessels for US Maritime Administration MARAD. Hanwha plans to utilise the shipyard's facilities for building, maintaining, and repairing vessels, addressing the US Navy's production shortage. Hanwha Systems CEO Eoh Sung-chul stated: “The opportunity to collaborate with Philly Shipyard... is an exciting strategic opportunity that will allow Hanwha Systems to deploy its state-of-the-art naval systems and associated technologies in the US market.” The acquisition also enables Hanwha to develop autonomous merchant ships and diversify its product range in midsized tankers and container ships, leveraging Philly Shipyard's expertise.

South Korea: NHRC Chief calls for the revision of the Refugee Act
On 20 June, The chief of the National Human Rights Commission, Song Doo-hwan called for a revision of the Refugee Act to improve the daily living conditions of people with a refugee status in South Korea. He expressed that protecting the rights of the refugees is a joint responsibility of the international community. Song stated: “In many cases, those who apply for refugee status are faced with unstable legal status for a lengthy period due to backlog of cases up for evaluation, and they go on living under economic difficulties,” and “Even if they are granted refugee status, relevant law makes them off limits to social security, unable to receive the treatment as inscribed by law.” The individuals receiving refugee status receive the same social security as a citizen under the Refugee Act, however, people with refugee status only receive house support for the vulnerable class in reality.

South Korea: Investigation on imported vehicles from Japan for fraudulent certifications
On 20 June, the South Korean government investigated the imported models of the Japanese automakers Toyota Motor and Yamaha Motor for fraudulent certifications in Japan. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport looked into 38 models and discovered some models of Toyota's Lexus RX line and Yamaha's Tmax and YZF-R3 motorcycles contained problematic engines. The ministry has decided to monitor measures taken by Japanese authorities for the 6,749 registered Lexus RX units, 1,910 Yamaha Tmax units and 1,318 YZF-R3 units in the country and investigate if they fail to meet the safety standards.

Papua New Guinea: Delay in 2024 Census
On 21 June, Papua New Guinea's 2024 national census in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville was postponed by a week due to the late arrival of materials. The census which began on 17 June is scheduled to continue until the end of the month. Bougainville's provincial census coordinator Michael Omepa stated: “Due to delays in the freighting of materials, the Autonomous Region of Bougainville will postpone its 2024 Census by one week.” The census is experiencing setbacks in training enumerators and distributing electronic tablets for data collection. Prime Minister James Marape emphasised the government's commitment to the census, stating: “We are conscious about the cost, whatever the cost is, in my view we must spend to get the quality data.” The budget has been reduced from PGK 300 million to PGK 157 million. RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent Scott Waide highlighted the unrealistic two-week deadline set by the government stating: “Two weeks for an urban centre is workable, [but] two weeks for rural centres in the provinces near impossible.” Waide also reported that many tablets, contracted from an Indian company, are still warehoused in Port Moresby, forcing some workers to use paper forms.

SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
India: Minister of External Affairs visits Sri Lanka
On 20 June, India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited Sri Lanka at the beginning of his second term in office. During his visit, he held discussions with the Sri Lankan leadership to enhance the bilateral relationship. Additionally, both countries officially launched a USD 6 million Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre, funded by India. He discussed plans to increase cooperation in various areas such as power, energy, connectivity, port infrastructure, aviation, digital technology, healthcare, food security, education, and tourism. Additionally, Jaishankar virtually presented 154 homes as part of the Model Village Housing Project and Indian Housing Project, showing India's consistent support through development and connectivity initiatives.

Nepal: President and Prime Minister visits Germany
On 17 June, President Ramchandra Paudel and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited Germany and Switzerland. They participated in the inaugural forum of the Global Coalition for Social Justice and the high-level segment of the 112th session of the International Labour Organisation. President stressed expanding trade and commerce with Germany and also stated that: “Nepal is committed to achieving sustainable peace, stability, and development. We express our gratitude for the support received from Germany during the peace process. We are confident that Germany will continue to provide support and cooperation as Nepal advances on its path to development”. He appealed to the German government to lift the ban on Nepali airlines in European airspace and to rescue Nepali hostages in Ukraine.

Sri Lanka: IMF delays debt restructure
On 14 June according to Sun Siyam Media, Sri Lanka was facing challenges in restructuring its foreign debt due to delays in negotiations with some of its creditors, including China. While the IMF has provided financial assistance to help the country's economy recover from a government default in 2022, the goal of finalising the debt restructuring before the disbursement of the IMF funds has not been met. According to the IMF's mission chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer, there are procedural issues that need to be addressed despite an agreement on financial and legal terms. With a presidential election scheduled for later this year, opposition parties have pledged to review the terms of the USD 2.9 billion IMF bailout loan.

Bhutan: Adani Group to construct Wangchhu hydropower project
On 18 June, Kuensel highlighted that The Druk Green Power Corporation (DGPC) and India's Adani Group have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to develop the Wangchhu Hydropower Project. The project offers two alternatives: a 570 MW run-of-the-river scheme or a 900MW reservoir scheme. Both parties will engage in discussions to assess the technical and cost considerations and determine the optimal approach. The DGPC and Adani Group have committed to working together closely to finalise the project specifics within the next three to five months. This partnership exemplifies the continued collaboration between Bhutan and India in the domains of hydropower and solar energy.

Pakistan: PM Shehbaz and Turkish President Erdogan vow to strengthen bilateral ties
On 16 June, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a telephone conversation where they emphasised their commitment to boosting bilateral cooperation in various sectors like trade, investment, defence, and tourism. They also shared wishes on the occasion of Eid ul Adha. Sharif’s office issued a statement saying: “They expressed serious concern about the current situation in Palestine while urging the international community to redouble peace efforts to end the sufferings of the innocent Palestinians. Both leaders agreed to continue working together to address common challenges and to support each other’s core national interests.”

Pakistan: Protection of Chinese nationals is Pakistan’s priority, says Interior Minister
On 16 June, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong at the Chinese embassy in Pakistan. The meeting focused on the protection and security of Chinese citizens in Pakistan. Naqvi highlighted how the recent visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to China helped strengthen ties between both countries. During the meeting, Naqvi detailed the measures for the protection of Chinese citizens in Pakistan, as well as the security plan for Chinese engineers and staff of CPEC and other projects. He also noted the establishment of a Special Protection Unit (SPU) for the safety of foreign nationals. He stated: “The protection of our Chinese brothers working for Pakistan's development is the government’s top priority. The everlasting friendship between Pakistan and China is unbreakable, and any conspiracy against it will be defeated.” In response, the Chinese ambassador expressed satisfaction with the security measures.

Pakistan: COAS condemns India for “false propaganda and provocations against Pakistan”
On 17 June, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir celebrated Eid ul Adha with the troops in Haji Pir sector. He offered prayers along with officers and soldiers and paid respects for the loss of lives in Pakistan. While addressing the troops, COAS stated: “As soldiers, we take pride in celebrating such festivities away from our homes and loved ones while on duty, ensuring the security of our country and fellow citizens.” He discussed the ongoing struggles of the Kashmir population in Jammu and Kashmir and reemphasized Pakistan’s stance which is aligned with UN resolutions. He condemned India’s sustained “oppression and brutalities against Kashmiris” underlining the surge of aggression post-elections through “false propaganda and provocations against Pakistan.” The ISPR statement read: “Such tactics, including manufacturing false flag operations, have become a routine political tool of India.” Munir warned that while “Pakistan has always supported peace and stability in the region,” any form of “provocation or violation of Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty will be met with a swift and resolute response, with the full support of the nation.”

Pakistan: Fitch rating shows significant debt reduction in the FY25 budget
On 19 June, The Express Tribune reported that as per predictions of the rating agency Fitch, Pakistan’s FY25 budget will significantly reduce government debt, which is set to decline to 68 per cent of GDP by the end of FY24. This reduction is due to high inflation and deflator effects. It is also estimated that there will be a strong decline in inflation and interest costs because of economic growth and primary surpluses. The budget for FY25 saw a target of a headline deficit of 5.9 per cent of GDP and a two per cent primary surplus when compared to FY24’s figures of 7.4 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. Pakistan’s external liquidity and funding remain critical challenges. Though the budget aims for a growth rate of 3.6 per cent in FY25, it could potentially face resistance within the parliament due to a weaker-than-anticipated mandate of the coalition government. As per Fitch’s revised fiscal forecasts, there will be a primary surplus of 0.8 per cent considering potential revenue shortfalls and higher current spending, while the growth forecast for FY25 has been adjusted to three per cent from 3.5 per cent.

Pakistan: New political party “Awaam Pakistan” announced on X
On 20 June, a new political party named “Awaam Pakistan” was announced on X after months of speculation. Ex-Finance Minister Miftah Ismail and Former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi both earlier affiliated with the PML-N along with former PPP senator Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar had been working on the project since they left their respective parties over differences. Following their exit, they conducted a series of nationwide seminars in 2023 on ‘Reimagining Pakistan’. Abbasi is the convener and Ismail is his deputy of the Awaam Pakistan’s organising committee. Due to the launch date differences, however, Mr Khokhar is no longer part of the group. Ismail stated: “It’s not [a decree] from heaven that only traditional politicians like Nawaz Sharif or Asif Zardari or Fazlur Rehman can do politics. We, the non-traditional, can also do that. The people of Pakistan can do that.” Abbasi announced the formal launch will take place on 06 or 07 July with their 17 founding members. He stated: “We have not actually pursued anybody. These are people who want to work and think it’s a good platform. They are people who are worried about the country.”

THE MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet
On 17 June, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved the country’s war cabinet. Communications Specialist at the Prime Minister’s Office, David Mencer, stated that the war cabinet had been set up for Benny Gantz and his National Unity Party as a “prerequisite” for them joining the unity government formed after 07 October and that “with Mr Gantz leaving government (on 09 June), there is no need for the cabinet.”

Iran: Presidential elections to be held on 28 June
On 20 June, the Middle East Monitor reported that Iran would hold presidential elections on 28 June. The registration of candidates will begin on 30 May. The new president will replace Mohammad Mokhber, who became acting president after President Ibrahim Raisi’s death.

Iran: IRGC listed as a “terrorist” group by Canada
On 19 June Canada designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “terrorist” entity to counter “countering terrorist financing.” In a statement, the Canadian government revealed that the decision was taken to send a “strong message” that Canada would do everything in its power “to combat the terrorist activity of the IRGC.” Canada’s minister of public safety Dominic LeBlanc explained the rationale behind the decision stating: “The Iranian regime has consistently displayed a complete disregard for human rights, both inside and outside Iran, as well as a willingness to destabilise the international rules-based order. Listing the IRGC builds on the Government of Canada’s broader efforts to ensure that there is no impunity for Iran’s unlawful actions and its support of terrorism.” Following the decision, Canada advised its citizens in Iran to leave and others not to visit it for fear of “arbitrary detention.” Fars news agency reported that in response, Iran deemed the action “unwise and unconventional politically motivated step.” Further, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Nasser Kanaani stated: “Canada’s action will not have any effect on the Revolutionary Guards’ legitimate and deterrent power.”

Turkey: Erdogan says open to talks with Assad
On 17 June, according to Reuters, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he was open to meeting Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad for negotiations if Turkish military withdrawal from Syrian territory was not a pre-condition. Since 2011, Turkey has been assisting Syria’s opposition forces in northwestern Syria.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Africa: World leaders to invest in vaccine production
On 20 June, at the Global Forum for Vaccine Sovereignty and Innovation in France, an African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator was launched to provide financial incentives for local vaccine manufacturers in Africa. The French President Emmanuel Macron proposed USD 1.1 billion and the EU pledged USD 800 million to the scheme. Africa was unfairly locked out of access to treatment tools, vaccines and testing equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. The African Union (AU) Commission Chief Moussa Faki Mahamat approved the initiative stating: “It could become a catalyst for promoting the pharmaceutical industry in Africa and fostering collaboration between member states.”

Somalia: Government seeking slow withdrawal of ATMIS troops
On 20 June, Al Jazeera reported that Somalia’s government wrote a letter to the African Union Peace and Security Council in May 2024 seeking a slow withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), fearing a potential security vacuum. In a joint assessment in March, the government recommended the AU for a timely withdrawal according to the capabilities and readiness of Somali forces. National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali explained the need for the postponement fearing the al-Shabab resurgence.

South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa sworn in for the second term
On 19 June, President Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in for his second term. At the ceremony, he announced the beginning of a “new era” referring to the country’s first coalition. The ANC has formed a coalition with its major opponent, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and three smaller parties. Calling for cooperation among his colleagues, he stated: “They have directed their representatives to put aside animosity and dissent, to abandon narrow interests, and to pursue together only that which benefits the nation.” Although the two parties are ideologically at odds, they have agreed on a common agenda to focus on the country’s infrastructure, providing basic services, and creating jobs. Chief Justice Raymond Zondo administered the oath of office. The opposition party, MK, led by Jacob Zuma boycotted the parliament’s first sitting.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The Netherlands: Prime Minister Mark Rutte to head NATO
On 20 June, Romanian President of Romania, Klaus Iohannis backed off from clearing war for Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, to become the next new NATO chief. Klaus said that his country's Defence Council will have strong support for Mark Rutte as the alliance's secretary general. Council members said: “Declared themselves in favour of Romania's support for the Dutch prime minister's candidacy.” The nomination of a NATO head requires consensus from all 32 alliance members and every member has agreed to support Rutte. However, Hungary and Slovakia have not approved it. Though he was a strong supporter of Ukraine, his governance lost the coalition in 2023 but he quickly gained support from NATO major leaders the US, France, Britain and Germany.

Belarus: Report on Human Rights issues released jointly with Russia
On 20 June, Russia and Belarus released a joint report on the human rights situation in over 40 countries. The reports were published on the websites of their respective Foreign Ministries and looked at several EU countries, the UK, the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Ukraine and Moldova. In an address to the reader in the report, both Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Yuri Ambrazevich and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin noted that the Western ‘model democracies’ have shown racist and neo-colonial views. The report looked at past and present examples to portray the “negative human practices and trends”. The authors also highlighted the double standards seen in the assessment of the events and observed that authorities in Western nations were attempting to “justify their failure to act by hypocritically claiming the allegedly absolute nature of the right to freedom of expression”. Some of the accusations brought up include systemic racism, police misconduct and unilateral sanctions in the US, neo-Nazi propaganda being spread in Ukraine and the treatment of migrants by Poland.

Hungary: Government offers to mediate between Russia and Ukraine
On 16 June, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto offered to be the mediator between Ukraine and Russia. He stated: “What is needed is to prevent family separations and protect young people, given the large Hungarian population of at least 150,000 in western Ukraine.” Budapest is willing to convey messages to Moscow to ease tensions. While Switzerland is hosting a high-level conference on Ukraine from 15 to 16 June around 92 countries have been invited except Russia. 55 countries have confirmed that they will attend it.

THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Ecuador: National power blackout blamed on lack of investment in power sector
On 19 June, a senior Ecuadorian government minister said that the nation had experienced a nationwide blackout which left about 18 million people in the dark for hours. The subway system of the capital city of Quito had to be halted and traffic lights stopped working. The Public Works Minister Roberto Luque stated that the lack of investment in electrical systems had led to the outage, which is “just more proof of the energy crisis” the country is dealing with. He lamented that “for years,” the government has “stopped investing in these systems and today,” the country is “experiencing the consequences.” Separately, Quito’s Mayor, Pabel Munoz, said that the “major” incident “knocked out power to the metro, which has its own separate system.” Recently in April, a drought forced the government to announce a series of planned blackouts. Reports also stated that access to drinking water had been suspended in a few areas. A few hours following the outage. Luque announced that 95 per cent of the country’s electricity was up again.

Ecuador: Foreign Minister announces temporary suspension of waived visa agreement with China
On 18 June, Ecuador announced the suspension of its waived visa agreement with China for Chinese citizens travelling to South America. The decision came under the increasing worry of irregular migration after authorities reported that about 50 per cent of Chinese nationals didn’t leave “through regular routes” nor adhere to the 90 days permitted under this agreement. Ecuador's foreign minister stated that the suspension is temporary, and will be initiated on 01 July. As per data from Washington-based think tank Niskanen Centre, which cited official data by the Ecuadorian government, Chinese nationals entered Ecuador 48,381 times in 2023 but left only 24,240 times.

Mexico: Rights and recognition of Indigenous people is top priority, says President-elect Sheinbaum
On 18 June, Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum stated that she thinks of the “respect and recognition of Indigenous and Afro-Mexican peoples” as a “priority” in upcoming talks. The newly elected Congress will be serving from September, which is when they will discuss reforms put forth by the outgoing government. According to a census in 2020 by the National Statistics Office, Mexico is home to 68 Indigenous regions, which at the time represented around 15 per cent of the population.

The US: President Biden announces new executive order allowing hundreds of thousands of immigrants to get citizenship
On 18 June, US President Joe Biden announced one of his largest immigration regulation programmes, as part of which he announced that hundreds of thousands of immigrants would be able to apply for citizenship. Through the measures, more than 500,000 spouses of US citizens and roughly 50,000 noncitizen children under 21 (whose parents are married to a US citizen), will be able to apply for permanent residence and then citizenship without having to leave the US. Biden said that the new action to fix the “cumbersome” system is a “common-sense fix” since under the current system, undocumented spouses “have to leave their families in America with no assurance that they will be allowed back.” Thus, they stay in the US “in the shadows, living in constant fear of deportation without the ability to legally work.” Biden opined that these measures would “fix” the problem but also not make “any fundamental change” to the immigration law. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also appreciated the measures, saying it would bring “stability” to American families and help “keep American families together and allow more young people to contribute” to the US economy.

The US: White House accuses President Biden’s opponents of spreading misinformation through videos
On 17 June, the administration of US President Joe Biden criticised Biden’s opponents for spreading disinformation about his physical and mental fitness and wellbeing after a series of viral videos were released, creating concerns about Biden’s age. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that the clips had been deceptively edited or misrepresented to show Biden’s decline, and said that the “cheapfake” videos showed “how desperate Republicans are.” These clips showed Biden freezing up or wandering off on his own during events, including the G7 summit. One clip showed him motionless while surrounded by people who were dancing, to which Jean-Pierre commented: “The president stood there listening to the music, and he didn’t dance… Excuse me, I didn’t know that not dancing was a health issue.”

The US: State Department sanctions Tsav 9 for blocking aid
On 14 June, the US Department of State sanctioned the Israeli group Tsav 9 for “blocking, harassing and damaging convoys carrying life-saving humanitarian assistance” to Gaza and the West Bank. Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated: “The Government of Israel has a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of humanitarian convoys transiting Israel and the West Bank en route to Gaza. We will not tolerate acts of sabotage and violence.”

About the Authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Associate at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Cris Fernando, Govind Anoop, Ken B Varghese, Shilpa Joseph and Mugdha Chaturvedi are Research Interns at NIAS. Sanjay Manivanan is a postgraduate scholar at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, University of Madras.