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CWA # 1448, 22 August 2024
Conflict Weekly
Blinken’s Ninth Visit to Israel and the Mpox Outbreak in Africa

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #242, 22 August 2024, Vol.5, No.34
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta and Anu Maria Joseph

Blinken’s Ninth visit to Israel: US and the War in Gaza
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 19 August, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, told the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, that he would send Mossad Chief David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, and Israel Defence Forces (IDF) Major General Nitzan Alon to Cairo for negotiations with Hamas. Additionally, Israel accepted Blinken’s “bridging proposal” for a ceasefire and hostage exchange, and the US urged Hamas to do the same. 

On 18 August, Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv to advance the Israel-Hamas negotiations, marking his ninth visit to Israel since the war began. Blinken stated: “This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a cease-fire.” 

The same day, Hamas leaked the terms of Blinken’s proposal, which included the following: the IDF would declare a temporary ceasefire and reduce its presence at the Philadelphi Corridor, the Palestinian Authority (PA) would govern the Rafah crossing under Israel’s supervision, the IDF would control the Netzarim Corridor and screen Palestinians passing through it, and Israel have the right to veto the release of 100 Palestinian prisoners demanded by Hamas. Furthermore, Israel would deport multiple Palestinian prisoners, and its military would be allowed to resume operations against Hamas if the group were to refuse its demands.

On the same day, Hamas rejected Blinken’s proposal for being biased towards Israel. The armed group reiterated its demand for a permanent ceasefire and stated: “We are not facing a deal or real negotiations, but…American diktats.” Hamas added that negotiations should implement the armed group’s 2 July proposal, based on US President Joe Biden’s three-stage plan, instead of discussing new proposals. 

On 17 August, the US, Qatar and Egypt announced a “bridging proposal” to Israel and Hamas, which was “consistent with the principles laid out by Biden on May 31, 2024. On the same day, Hamas stated that there was no progress on ceasefire-hostage negotiations and accused the US of creating a “false positive atmosphere.”  
 
Issues at large
First, the US objectives in the Gaza war. According to The Times of Israel and Al Jazeera, Washington aims to secure a hostage deal and permanent ceasefire, support Israel’s right to self-defence and its goal of destroying Hamas but with lower civilian casualties, deter Iran and its proxies from escalating the conflict, and establish a two-state solution with Gaza under the PA’s control.

Second, the US’ strategies. Since 7 October, Washington has pledged “ironclad support” for Israel through diplomatic support and weapons shipments and used its regional presence to counter Iran and its proxies. The US has kept negotiations alive by engaging regional partners, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the UAE, and the PA, proposing a ceasefire-hostage exchange plan and facilitating aid delivery in Gaza through international platforms and the Gaza Aid pier. According to the Economist, Blinken has played a crucial role in the US diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire. Previously, he visited Israel five times between October and November 2023, leading to a 7-day pause. In 2024, he visited Israel nine times to reach a new ceasefire agreement.

Third, limitations of the US. According to the Times of Israel, the US’ aims of securing a permanent ceasefire and support for the elimination of Hamas are contradictory because the permanent ceasefire would lead to Hamas’ revival as a governing force. Furthermore, Israeli leaders have consistently rejected a two-state solution and PA rule over Gaza, instead supporting the IDF’s “overriding security control” over the enclave. Additionally, the Institute for National Security Studies reported that Hamas' immense popularity in Gaza, massive tunnel network, and weapons stockpiles complicate any endgame involving the group’s destruction and rule of any other group over the enclave. 
 
In perspective
Blinken’s visits to Israel mark a revival of the “shuttle diplomacy” approach to the Middle East conflicts, popularised by Henry Kissinger during the Arab-Israeli war of 1973-74. Blinken rarely met Israeli leaders in isolation, with his visits usually followed and preceded by trips to Arab states. However, unlike Kissinger, who successfully extracted concessions from Israel, Blinken provided unconditional support, limiting US leverage over Netanyahu. His bridging proposal reflects Israel’s desire to recreate the pre-2005 political arrangement in Gaza, with a weak PA in charge and IDF enjoying a substantial presence, completely alienating Hamas in the process. As long as the US carte blanche to Israel continues, its efforts to resolve the conflict are unlikely to succeed. 

Mpox Outbreak: Africa and Beyond
Anu Maria Joseph

In the news
On 20 August, the World Health Organization Europe (WHO Europe) director Hans Kluge stated: “Mpox is not the new COVID” and that “we know how to control mpox. And, in the European region, the steps needed to eliminate its transmission altogether.”

On 19 August, the Philippines reported the first clade Ib variant mpox case. Subsequently, the health ministries of South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia announced precautions and alerts to avoid a spread.

On 15 August, the WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) amidst the Mpox outbreak in Africa. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that the possibility of a spread beyond Africa "is very worrying." He added: "A co-ordinated international response is essential to stop this outbreak and save lives." 

On 16 August, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) advised travel warnings for the regions affected by mpox virus. It came after the first clade Ib variant case was detected in Sweden. 

Previously, on 13 August, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) declared a health emergency in Africa. It reported that since January more than 13,700 cases and 450 deaths due to clade Ib mpox variant have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It has spread to other African countries including Burundi, the Central African Republic, Kenya and Rwanda. 

On the same day, Africa CDC Director General Jean Kaseya stated: “We didn’t start vaccinations yet. We’ll start in a few days, if we are sure that everything is in place. End of next week vaccines will start to arrive in DRC and other countries.”

Issues at large
First, the mpox virus, origin, symptoms, mutants, and cure. Mpox, also known as monkeypox, was first identified in monkeys in a laboratory in Denmark in 1958. It is a zoonotic disease which can be transmitted from animals to humans. The first human case was reported in 1970. Mpox spreads through close contact with an infected via sex, skin-to-skin contact and body fluids. The symptoms are skin lesions and flu-like symptoms. The disease is at times fatal. It is similar to smallpox which was eradicated from the world in 1980. According to public health and virology professor at Texas State University, Rodney Rohde, mpox is a DNA virus, which does not mutate rapidly unlike RNA viruses. However, 50 variants of the mpox virus have been identified so far; all having a low impact on the severity of the disease. The strand which has been spreading in the DRC is clade 1b. It is highly contagious and deadly, and was described by the scientists as "the most dangerous yet." Meanwhile, smallpox vaccines are said to be 80 per cent effective in mpox.

Second, previous mpox outbreaks. This is not the first time the mpox outbreak has been reported worldwide. The first outbreak of the disease was reported in the US in 2003 with 70 cases. The virus was believed to be brought to the US through an infected prairie dog from Gambia. Cases were also reported in the UK, Israel, and Singapore, and among people who recently travelled to African countries. In May 2022, another mpox clade II variant outbreak was reported with active cases in the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and several other countries, affecting nearly 100,000 people. In January 2023, a major outbreak of mpox clade I in the DRC reported 19,000 cases and 900 deaths.

Third, vulnerable gender, age and geographies. The disease has been endemic in Africa since 1970 and limited to several western and central African countries. However, presently, the new variant has been identified in other African countries including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa and Uganda. The lack of access to vaccines and vaccination facilities, and slow precautions and responses have accelerated the spread. Africa CDC reported that children and women are highly affected in number and have an increased fatal risk. The conflict-hit regions in eastern DRC, especially internally displaced camps in the North Kivu province, are vulnerable to a rapid spread as isolation is impossible. 

In perspective
The frequency of the outbreak has increased, new strands are appearing and rapidly spreading, and the fatality rate is increasing. It seems that the virus is more concerning, unlike the previous outbreaks. Besides the DRC, conflict-hit regions in Africa including Sudan, Chad, Somalia and Ethiopia are more vulnerable to the spread of the disease. The absence of state apparatus, health facilities, and disrupted life in the conflict-hit regions make it susceptible to the spread of disease. 

An endemic in African countries gained international concern when the number of cases and the possibility of a global spread increased. It implies Africa's double burden of carrying communicable diseases while international actors remain ignorant. African countries lack state-level capacity to take precautions to control such a virus spread. Regional and international responses to the DRC outbreak were too late and too little, despite the WHO acknowledging Africa’s disease burden. The outbreak needs to be controlled by vaccinating the vulnerable groups in the vulnerable geographies. As Madeline Barron says, "diseases don't know boundaries," something the world learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Global Protests Tracker #3
Zimbabwe and Venezuela
Anu Maria Joseph

It seems the protests in the UK, Kenya, Nigeria and Bangladesh have come to an end. However, a revisit after a few months would tell the melting point, and success of these protests. This week, protests continued in Venezuela. Meanwhile, much attention is not received on the protests in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe: An isolated anti-government protest
In Zimbabwe, the crackdown on opposition parties and leaders has been ongoing for a long time under the ZANU-PF party, during Robert Mugabe's regime and now under Emmerson Mnangagwa. However, it intensified after Mnangagwa passed the Patriotic Bill right after the 2023 elections, criminalising “wilfully damaging the sovereignty and national interest of Zimbabwe” and imposing sentences of up to 20 years. The law targeted opposition groups, human rights groups and journalists. Since then, parallel to recurring protests, several opposition members have been arrested, abducted, and tortured. Since June 2024, security officials have been attacking the opposition members and their protest venues, accusing them of trying to sabotage the SADC summit. This is the first time the country is hosting the SADC summit. According to Amnesty International, at least 160 people have been arrested since June. While the anti-government protests continue isolated, the opposition supporters blame the SADC, and other regional actors for their silence on Zimbabwe's illiberal democracy.

Venezuela: Strengthening protests
On 18 August, BBC reported on continuing protests in Venezuela against Nicolás Maduro's disputed election victory. Thousands have joined the protest supporting opposition leader María Corina Machado. The UN, the US, the EU and several Latin American countries have refused to recognise Maduro's victory. Maduro's government has used force and arbitrary arrest against opposition members and its supporters. It seems the protest is gaining momentum with increased participation and international support. However, it remains uncertain whether Maduro will give up.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Clashes with the Filipino coast guard in the South China Sea
On 19 August, the Chinese Coast Guard accused the Filipino counterpart of “unprofessional and dangerous” behaviour and a deliberate collision. Chinese spokesperson Gan Yu warned the Philippines to “cease its infringement and provocation” or face consequences. The Filipino vessel 4410 reportedly rammed Chinese vessel 21551 after ignoring warnings. This incident follows ongoing disputes between the countries over the Second Thomas Shoal and the Sabina Shoal. The Filipino Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela asserted their right to operate in the area stating: “Our Philippine Coast Guard vessels have the right to operate within the lagoon of Escoda Shoal for as long as necessary, without requiring permission from any other country.”

Taiwan: Hotel chain faces boycott over refusal to hoist Chinese flag
On 16 August, SCMP reported that a Taiwanese hotel chain, Evergreen Laurel, faced boycott calls from China after its Paris branch refused to hoist China’s flag during the Olympics. Videos of the incident have spurred outrage on Chinese social media. The Beijing Daily’s social media page demanded boycotts of Evergreen Laurel. A Taiwan official Liang Wen-chieh denounced the move of using nationalism to disrupt business. This incident comes amidst consumer boycotts in China against firms perceived to offend nationalist sentiments. The hotel’s website later listed locations by cities from countries, amid accusations of not recognising Taiwan as part of China.

South Korea: North Korean soldier found near the Military Demarcation Line
On 20 August, The Korea Times reported that a North Korean soldier was found on the northern part of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) by the South Korean Military. The Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) confirmed the defection and stated that an investigation is underway. This comes 12 days after a North Korean resident reached South Korea by crossing the neutral zone of the Han River. Recently, South Korea has been conducting full-scale anti-Pyongyang broadcasts in response to the North's repeated launches of trash balloons.

Japan: 79 years of World War II surrender
On 15 August, Japan Today reported on Japan marking the 79th anniversary of its Second World War surrender. Emperor of Japan Naruhito, Empress of Japan Masako, and Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida attended the ceremony. The ceremony mourned the three million Japanese civilians and soldiers who died during the war. During his speech, Kishida ignored Japan’s wartime aggression and focussed on free and open international order. Emperor Naruhito expressed his “deep remorse.” 

Japan: Lifts Nankai Trough megaquake alert, urges continued vigilance
On 15 August, Japan lifted its first-ever Nankai Trough megaquake alert. Despite the alert’s cancellation, authorities emphasised that the risk of a major earthquake persists. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi stressed the importance of ongoing preparedness, advising citizens to secure furniture and familiarise themselves with evacuation sites. The alert system, triggered by abnormal seismic activity along the Nankai Trough, does not guarantee safety once lifted. Toyo University Professor Isao Nakamura explained that the danger does not suddenly decrease, but diminishes gradually. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for clear communication about post-alert measures. Minister of Disaster Management Yoshifumi Matsumura noted the need to examine information dissemination and address discrepancies in tsunami arrival times within municipalities.

Australia and New Zealand: AUKUS to boost security
On 16 August, Reuters quoted Australian and New Zealand leaders that Australia, the UK, and the US (AUKUS) defence pact would improve regional security and stability. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that both countries would collaborate on security and prosperity. Although New Zealand is not a part of AUKUS, it has been seeking to collaborate on “pillar two” of the pact, focusing on shared military technology. Albanese said: “We share very much common values and we share common objectives, and it is not surprising we will look at any opportunity for including New Zealand in pillar two.” Prime Ministers issued concerns over tensions in the South China Sea and the need to maintain peace and stability. Additionally, they emphasised cyberattacks, targeting territorial integrity, political independence, and national security. 

Myanmar: KIA seizes the Moumauk town in Kachin state
On 19 August, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) claimed to have captured the Momauk Township in Kachin State, the last remaining junta base in the state. According to KIA, it seized arms and ammunition and six military vehicles. KIA spokesperson Colonel Naw Bu said that the armed group took control of the whole town. They claimed to have struck the Battalion 437 headquarters, an important base for the junta’s military operations.

Myanmar: Thousands flee Gwa township to Ayeyarway region
On 20 August, Irrawaddy Times reported that 1,300 civilians fled southern Rakhine State’s Gwa Township to neighbouring Ayeyarwady region amidst intense fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the junta troops. The AA with the joint resistance forces seized Kyeintall in Gwa Township in August.

Vietnam: Thousands of children to face difficulties in returning to school, warns Save the Children
On 20 August, Save the Children in Vietnam warned that around 4,500 children in northern Vietnam would face difficulties returning to school following the flash floods and landslides. In July, the region was affected by heavy downpours and flash floods that destroyed crops and displaced several communities.

South Asia
Pakistan: Seven TTP militants killed in Kurram, reveals ISPR
On 15 August, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) revealed that seven Fitna Al Khawarij or the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists were killed in an intelligence operation in the Kurram district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. ISPR stated that five other terrorists were captured. Separately, ISPR reported that three soldiers and five members of Fitna Al Khawarij were killed on 18 August. The Pakistani forces successfully prevented an infiltration attempt along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in the Bajaur District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The ISPR repeated its request to the Taliban regime to maintain effective management on their border. It added that it is important to prevent Afghan terrorists from using the shared territory to launch attacks on Pakistan.

Pakistan: Opposition parties to hold a peaceful rally 
On 20 August, The News International reported that the opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leaders decided to carry out a peaceful rally against the ruling government. A senior leader said: “It is our moral, constitutional and public duty to speak on issues and challenges being faced by the nation and the incompetence of the government will find even a little way forward and way out.” The PTI has planned to hold the rally on 22 August at Tarnol in Islamabad and other opposition parties would participate. At a meeting of opposition parties, they discussed the political and economic state of affairs and reiterated the supremacy of the constitution and the parliament. The participants are uniformly concerned about the government’s “self-serving” actions “at the cost of the Constitution and its spirit.” PTI member and National Assembly opposition leader Omar Ayub said: “Efforts will continue to restore the Constitution and rule of law in Pakistan and a nationwide campaign against the government will be announced soon.” 

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: Polio case detected in Gaza, UN chief urges “polio pause”
On 16 August, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza reported the first case of polio in the Gaza Strip, with the victim being a ten-month-old baby from Deir-el-Balah. On the same day, Hamas supported a proposal by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for humanitarian pauses to vaccinate Gaza’s population. 

Israel: IDF continues attacks in Gaza, recover six hostages’ bodies
On 21 August, the IDF stated that its forces struck a Hamas compound “embedded and hidden” in Gaza City’s Mustafa Khaft school, killing 12 people. On 20 August, the IDF recovered the bodies of six hostages in Khan Younis. On 19 August, according to Al Jazeera, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) killed 35 Gazans. On 17 August, the IDF carried out attacks in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis city, northern Gaza’s Jabalia camp, and central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp. Additionally, the IDF ordered Palestinians to leave parts of central Gaza’s Maghazi refugee camp. On 16 August, the IAF struck targets in northern Gaza’s Ta al-Hawa neighbourhood and southern Gaza’s Zeitoun neighbourhood. 
 
Israel: Tel-Aviv unveils new West Bank settlements amid continuing raids and settler violence
On 18 August, Israeli forces raided the Baqat al-Hatab in Qalqilya in the western West Bank. On 17 August, Israel’s government announced plans to establish a new settlement in the occupied territory in response to multiple European countries recognising the state of Palestine. Additionally, according to the Times of Israel, the IDF and Shin Bet killed two Hamas members in West Bank’s Jenin city, alleging that the duo planned a shooting attack that killed one Israeli. On 16 August, Israeli settlers attacked the northern West Bank village of Jit, killing one Palestinian. The attackers fired at residents, burning cars and destroying homes and property. 

Sudan: Health ministry declares cholera epidemic
On 19 August, the Sudanese Ministry of Health announced a cholera epidemic after 354 cases and  22 deaths were reported in the recent weeks. The WHO reported that 78 people have died due to cholera in the country between 1 January and 28 July. Seasonal floods and a 16-month civil war between the military factions have exacerbated the situation. Minister of Health Haitham Mohamed Ibrahim stated that the outbreak was “because of the weather conditions and because drinking water has been contaminated.” 

Mali: 15 soldiers killed in a clash with jihadists
On 17 August, Africanews reported that at least 15 members of Mali’s Defence and Security Forces (FDS) were killed during clashes with jihadists in the Mopti region. The jihadists belonged to the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM). 

Democratic Republic of Congo: 16 villagers killed in a clash with M23 rebels
On 16 August, Africanews reported that at least 16 villagers were killed in a clash between the M23 rebels and pro-government militias in the Rutshuru region of North Kivu Province. The fighting has raised concern on the break of a ceasefire which came into effect on 4 August. Issac Kibira, an administrative official, stated: "The M23 rebel position was attacked by the Wazalendo youth (and) unfortunately, seven civilians died.” 

Southern Africa: 68 million requires assistance amidst drought, reports SADC
On 17 August, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Executive Secretary Elias Magosi stated that 17 per cent of the population in the region, nearly 68 million people, require assistance amidst the El Nino-induced drought. The bloc has warned of depleted crop and livestock production, causing food shortages in several countries. Magosi stated: “The 2024 rainy season has been a challenging one with most parts of the region experiencing negative effects of the El Nino phenomenon characterised by the late onset of rains.” Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi are reported to be the most affected. 

Europe and The Americas
Russia: Ukrainian troops destroy a second bridge in the Kursk region
On 18 August, Politico reported that the Ukrainian forces destroyed a second bridge over the Seim River in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. Ukrainian Air Force Commander, Mykol Oleshchuk, said: “The Ukrainian air force continues to deprive Russia of its logistical capabilities with accurate airstrikes, which significantly affects the course of hostilities.” Kursk’s acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, confirmed the attack and reported the destruction of two bridges by HIMARS missiles. The military resupplies to Russian forces are predicted to be disrupted.

France: Delay in Pacific leaders’ visit to assess unrest in New Caledonia
On 21 August, the Pacific Islands Forum’s planned visit to the French territory of New Caledonia has been postponed due to concerns raised by the local government over “due process and protocol.” The 18-country forum intended to send a delegation, including the PIF chair and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, to help resolve the ongoing violence that has claimed 11 lives since mid-May. However, New Caledonia Congress President Roch Wamytan accused France of trying to control the visit, stating that it was “an unacceptable form of humiliation.” France’s High Commissioner to the Pacific, Veronique Roger-Lacan, denied any responsibility for the delay, stating that France was “ready anytime to welcome such a mission.” The unrest in New Caledonia points to the indigenous Kanaks’ struggle for independence. The French government’s attempted electoral reforms further fueled tensions. The UN has criticised France’s “excessive use of force,” undermining the decolonisation process.

Haiti: Shootout between police and escaped prisoners
On 17 August, a spokesperson for Haiti’s National Police, Michel Ange Louis Jeune, said that eleven escaped prisoners in Saint-Merc were killed and one was arrested after a shootout with the police. This is the third similar incident in 2024, where inmates break out of prison. Citizens of Haiti are undergoing a continuous humanitarian crisis due to gang violence. The escaped prisoners burned down the police dormitories and archives. Citizens of Saint-Merc have been asked to stay vigilant. Haiti prisons suffer from overcrowding. 

Chile: Worker union’s strike against Lundin Mining continues
On 19 August, Reuters reported no signs of resolution between the workers’ union and Lundin Mining, a Canadian mining company, after a week of workers’ strike at the Caserones copper mine in Chile. President of the Caserones union, Marco Garcia, said that copper prices have been favourable to the industry but the profits are not being given to the workers. The workers are demanding higher wages and better working conditions. Meanwhile, the Head of the Chilean mining association SONAMI, Jorge Riesco, said that there needs to be a balance between workers’ pay and industry competitiveness. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Samruddi Pathak is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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