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CWA # 1518, 25 October 2024
Conflict Weekly
Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Attacks and a Militant Attack in Kashmir

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #251, 25 October 2024, Vol.5, No.43
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
 

Samruddhi Pathak and Akriti Sharma

The Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas War in the Middle East
Samruddhi Pathak
 
In the news
On 22 October, the Times of Israel reported that the drone launched by Hezbollah on 18 October had caused damage to Israle’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea. 

On 20 October, IDF Colonel Ehsan Daksa, commander of the 401 Armoured Brigade, was killed in Gaza’s Jabalia by Hamas fighters in northern Gaza’s Jabalia. He was killed by a Hamas Improvised Explosive Device (IED). It exploded while he was dismounting his tank. He was the fifth high-ranking IDF officer to be killed in the Gaza War. According to the New York Times, the continuing deaths of IDF officers indicate that Israel has not fully degraded Hamas’ fighting capabilities because it remains a powerful guerilla group in Gaza.

On 19 October, IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised briefing: “The Israeli Air Force carried out a series of precise strikes on these Hezbollah financial strongholds.” According to the IDF, it was underneath a hospital in south Beirut. 

On 18 October, a drone fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon exploded in the central seaside town of Caesarea. It targeted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home, his office said. 

Issues at large
First, Israel's continuing attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has increased targeted attacks on Hezbollah. The IDF assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah and now his heir as well. Despite being criticised by the international community over civilian killings, Israel is continuing its offensive in the region.

Second, Hezbollah's counter-attack. Hezbollah has enhanced its capabilities by installing precision-guided missiles and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. Despite their leader and heir being assassinated, the non-state armed actor has not toned down their attacks on Israel.  

Third, Israel's delicate distinction between civilians and militants. The IDF spokesperson, Rear Admiral Hagari, asserted that Israel is at war with Hezbollah and not the Lebanese people, adding that the IDF would not launch a strike on the hospital. However, more than 1,600 lives have been claimed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon. More Lebanese people have been killed than militants. 

Fourth, international response. Heads of the UN World Food Programme and UNICEF urged Israel to let the humanitarian aid reach the civilians in Gaza. However, Israel is continuing its stance that Hamas is blocking the aid and that the aid is strengthening Hamas. It maintains a similar strategy for carrying out attacks in Lebanon. 
 
In perspective
Despite the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and IDF officials being attacked and assassinated, the warring parties have shown no sign of de-escalation. Instead, the intensity of the war has further increased. At this juncture, all actors directly involved in the conflict will likely look towards an escalation. Escalation would be through surprise attacks. The war is not slowing down as Hezbollah and Hamas are also intensifying their attacks. Ceasefire talks remain off the table. Important players like Iran and the US must assert influence for diplomatic solutions.

The international community is turning critical of Israel’s attacks in Lebanon. France has announced that it will not supply weapons to Israel. Gradually, with many countries imposing embargoes against Israel, it will face isolation. Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon is also causing a divide between the US and the rest of the West. For the war to de-escalate, financial isolation of actors is also necessary.

India: Militant attack on infrastructure project in Jammu and Kashmir
Akriti Sharma
 
In the news
On 20 October, seven people, including a doctor and six construction workers, were killed in a terrorist attack on the ongoing construction site of Z Morh tunnel in the Ganderbal district of Jammu and Kashmir. The Resistance Front (TRF), affiliated with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

On 20 October, the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah, said on X: "Very sad news of a dastardly & cowardly attack on non-local labourers at Gagangir in Sonamarg region. These people were working on a key infrastructure project in the area.”

On 20 October, the Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah said on X: “The dastardly terror attack on civilians in Gagangir, J&K, is a despicable act of cowardice. Those involved in this heinous act will not be spared and will face the harshest response from our security forces.”

Issues at large
First, targeted attack following a newly elected government in J&K. This was the second attack since the first elections took place in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370. On 17 October, a dead migrant worker was in Shopian. With peaceful elections taking place a few days before, this was a move by TRF to establish itself in the region.  

Second, the difficulty of combating TRF. The TRF, an ally of LeT, has been active in the past few years. It has targeted migrant workers, Kashmiri pandits, and government employees as a part of its strategy to hinder peace and stability in the region. Although the security forces have conducted vast security operations to kill the terrorists, the TRF continues to operate and is a challenge to the security forces of the region. TRF is also known for being funded heavily and has a high recruitment rate.

Third, targeted attacks are on the rise. Targeted attacks on migrant workers have been on the rise for the past few years. The targets have been teachers, migrant workers, village councillors, policemen, and civilians. There has been a surge in targeted killings since the abrogation of the A-370, according to the South Asian Terrorism Portal. The surge has occurred in the Jammu region more than in Kashmir and has spread to other areas than Rajouri and Poonch, including Doda, Kathua, and Reasi.

Fourth, the Z-Morh tunnel project and its significance. The Z-Morh tunnel project is in the Gaganeer village of the Ganderbal district and is part of the Zoji-la tunnel project. It aims to provide all-weather connectivity to Sonamarg (a key tourist destination). Z-Morh tunnel is 6.4 kilometres long, which is crucial for connecting Sonamarg, which is mostly inaccessible during the winter due to heavy snow.

Fifth, targeted attacks on infrastructure projects. The attacks have targeted a critical infrastructural development project in the region, aiming to provide all-season connectivity to the Srinagar-Leh highway. The tunnel is instrumental for quick military access to Ladakh, the gateway to two strategic choke points, eastern Ladakh and the Siachen base camp with China and Pakistan. The government of India is undertaking several infrastructural projects in the region to enhance connectivity and access. This is a first-of-its-kind attack on the strategically key infrastructural project.
 
In perspective
First, another blow to restoring normalcy in the region. The attack has exposed the infrastructure projects to vulnerability in the region. This is a move to hinder peace and stability in the region, as the elections were peacefully conducted a few days ago. With heavy deployment of the security forces in the region, the terrorists have been able to retain. This challenges the security of other ongoing strategically crucial projects in the region.

Second, a challenge to the newly elected government. It will be challenging for the Omar Abdullah-led government to combat the terror attacks and operational outfits in the region. Terrorist outfits like TRF have reestablished themselves through violent means and will continue to do so. While the government has been able to provide security in the urban areas, rural and peripheral areas remain vulnerable to terrorism, demanding a need to combat terrorist networks.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Beijing objects to opening the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in Mumbai
On 17 October, China lodged diplomatic protests against opening the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in Mumbai. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning stated: “There was but one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.” China perceives this development as a breach of the one-China principle. The government objected to India and Taiwan holding their first naval exercise. Mao called upon India to “strictly abide by the commitments it has made” and not engage with Taiwan at the official level. The latest office in Mumbai makes three offices that TECC has in India. This might further complicate diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants.

China: Protest against Myanmar over attack on consulate in Mandalay
On 21 October, SCMP reported that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed shock over an attack on the Chinese consulate in the city of Mandalay in Myanmar. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian informed that China has lodged a solemn protest with Myanmar over the attack. The spokesperson urged Myanmar to enhance the security provided for Chinese institutions, projects, and personnel in Myanmar, and prevent similar incidents. Lin urged authorities in Myanmar to investigate the attack and bring the perpetrators to justice. Following the attack, the Consulate-General of the People’s Republic of China in Mandalay issued a security warning, urging all Chinese nationals, companies, and organizations to pay attention to local situations and improve security measures.

South Korea: Plans to monitor North Korean troops deployed by Russia
On 22 October, The Korea Times reported that South Korea is considering sending a team of personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops deployed by Russia. Seoul's spy agency said: “North Korea sent some 1,500 special forces to Russia this month to take part in the war in Ukraine. The North is expected to dispatch a total of 12,000 troops from an elite special force’s unit, according to an intelligence source. There is a possibility that personnel will be sent to Ukraine to monitor the tactics and combat capabilities of North Korean special forces dispatched in support of Russia.” Additionally, the government is considering giving weapons support to Ukraine. This is a shift in South Korea’s policy where they avoided openly providing lethal aid. The Korea Times quoted an unknown source: “While watching signs of North Korea-Russia military cooperation, the response measures will be taken in steps. Rather than lethal weapons, defensive weapons will be prioritized, and even if lethal aid is provided, a way to send them indirectly will be first considered.” 

North Korea: Telegram photo shows Russian and North Korean flags together on the battlefield
On 22 October, The Korea Times reported on a pro-Russia Telegram account with a photograph showing the Russian and North Korean flags together on a Ukrainian battlefield. The photograph was posted by a blogger named @rvvoenkor_bot on 21 October. It cautioned that the North Korean flag has recently been raised on a hill at the mine near the city, where North Korean soldiers are believed to be stationed. On 21 October, Russian Ambassador to South Korea Georgy Zinoviev told First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun: “The cooperation with North Korea is not directed against South Korea's security interests and claimed that the cooperation is carried out within the framework of international law.” 

North Korea: Pyongyang Troops’ presence reported in Russia’s Far East region
On 20 October, The Korea Herald reported on evidence of North Korean troops' presence in Russia's Far East region. The intelligence authorities of Seoul and Kyiv stated that North Korea is formulating to deploy its soldiers to the front line in the ongoing Ukraine War, termed to be Pyongyang's first major involvement in an international conflict. Ukraine's Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security on 19 October released an audio-visual showing North Korean soldiers lined up and receiving uniforms and equipment. Meanwhile, CNN revealed surveys with uniforms and gear written in Russian and Korean languages. Additionally, South Korea's National Intelligence Service spotted that the soldiers were transported via seven Russian naval vessels between 8 and 13 October. Meanwhile, the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, said he could not immediately confirm the media report but said that Washington would investigate the case further. He stated: "I can't confirm those reports at this point, if that's true, it's serious, (it's) something that we'll continue to watch. We know that (Putin) continues to lose a lot of people, reiterating his earlier estimate that at least 350,000 people have been killed or wounded since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. "

Myanmar: Junta troops amass in the Myawaddy town
On 22 October, The Irrawaddy reported on the deployment of junta troops in Karen State’s Myawaddy town, a major trading hub along the border with Thailand. The junta was reported to have deployed up to 1,000 troops to defend the border town against expected resistance attacks. The ethnic Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU), and allied People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), the armed wing of the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) have been guarding the town for months. This occupation came after the KNLA and PDF captured a junta base on Swal Taw Mountain in Lay Kay Kaw town south of Myawaddy.

South Asia
Pakistan: Protestors barred from rallying against enforced disappearances in Karachi
On 20 October, law enforcement forces blocked activists trying to protest inside the Karachi Press Club (KPC). The protestors belonged to the groups including Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) and Voice for Missing Persons. They held banners reading "Ending silence on enforced disappearances" and attempted marching towards the KPC. However, police blocked all roads that led to the venue, citing security reasons. The leader of the protesting group, Sammi Dean Baloch, told the media that nine students were taken away. However, the protesters were unarmed civilians displaying pictures or portraits of the missing persons. The BYC alleged that the police carried out a baton charge. Meanwhile, the Karachi Press Club president Saeed Sarbazi, secretary Shoaib Ahmed, and other members condemned the police’s acts. The Press Club stated: “Any attempt to restrict individual or collective rights to protest by blocking access to the press club will be met with strong condemnation. The actions of the Sindh government and law enforcement mirror those of a dictatorial regime. The use of Section 144 to justify blocking roads is completely unacceptable. Sindh's governor and chief minister must urgently address this critical issue."

India: US calls for swift investigation on assassination of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun
On 22 October, the US called upon India to ensure accountability after investigating the involvement of Indian nationals in the assassination of dual US and Canadian citizen and leader of the Sikh separatist group, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. A US official said: “We have been emphasising that we hope that India will move as quickly as possible through their investigative process.” However, the Indian embassy did not respond to the US statement.

India: China agrees on border de-escalation agreement near LAC
On 21 October, BBC News reported that the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Government of India had agreed upon patrolling agreements to de-escalate tensions on the India-China border. The Foreign Secretary of India, Vikram Misri, informed about the agreement, which would lead to disengagement and resolution of issues in the areas in the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which arose in 2020 after the Galwan clashes. However, Misri did not provide any details about the disengagement process, and whether it would cover all the points of conflict on the border. The new agreement is a breakthrough in talks between China and India over reducing tensions along the border. The clashes in Galwan, Sikkim, and Tawang have adversely impacted bilateral and business relations between China and India.

Bangladesh: Floods in 19 districts affect one million people
On 22 October, Bangladesh's Disaster Management and Relief Adviser, Farooq-e-Azam, announced that the recent floods across Bangladesh led to the loss of about BDT 14,269.68 crore, affecting 942,811 individuals. He highlighted the high degree of crop damage due to the current year's floods and the impact on the market for essential commodities. He stated that rehabilitation for those affected has started, and committees at the central, district, and upazila levels have been constituted to monitor the relief efforts. He announced that the government allocated about BDT 7.34 crore in assistance, about BDT 69.45 lakh for housing and BTD 1.80 crore for children and livestock sustenance.

Bangladesh: Cyclone Dana may hit India and Bangladesh on 24 October
On 21 October, according to the India Meteorological Department, Cyclone Dana is set to cause landfalls along the coastlines of India and Bangladesh on 24 October. The cyclone is likely to affect the coasts of West Bengal and Odisha, and the districts of Satkhira and Khulna in Bangladesh. According to meteorologists, the most severe threat posed by the cyclone may be a storm surge, landfalls and high tides.

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: Seven people arrested alleged to be Iranian spies
On 22 October, the BBC reported that Israel had arrested seven people accused of being Iranian spies. Israel has alleged that they were planning to carry out attacks at Iran’s behest. Israel’s domestic security agency, Shin Bet, revealed that the group was planning to assassinate a senior Israeli scientist and a city mayor “under Iranian direction.” The statement added: “This investigation underscores Iran’s efforts to recruit Israeli citizens for terrorism.” This is the second such arrest made in the week. All those arrested had immigrated from Azerbaijan and are accused of carrying out at least 600 espionage missions in Israel.

Israel: IDF kills Yahya Sinwar in Rafah; Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran issue defiant responses
On 18 October, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Yahya Sinwar in Rafah’s Tal-al-Sultan area. IDF On the same day, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Sinwar’s death marked the “beginning of the end” of Gaza. While IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that Israel was taking measures to increase the humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza, he and Netanyahu stressed that military operations would continue until Israel achieved all its goals, including securing the around 100 Israeli hostages in Gaza who were still alive. Separately, Hamas Political Bureau member Basem Naim confirmed the death, stating that every time Israel assassinated Hamas leaders, the armed group “became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations to continue the journey towards a free Palestine.” Hezbollah expressed condolences for Sinwar and vowed to start a new phase of war against Israel, referring to its recent use of precision-guided rockets and suicide drones against Israel. Additionally, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian called Sinwar’s death “a deep loss” but added that it “will not weaken the resistance” against Israel. Iran’s Mission to the UN upheld the Hamas leader as an example of the Muslim world, stating, “…when Muslims look up to martyr Sinwar standing on the battlefield — in combat attire and out in the open, not in a hideout, facing the enemy — the spirit of resistance will be strengthened.” 

Israel: IDF strikes and identifies Hezbollah “financial hubs” as it targets Netanyahu residence
On 21 October, the IDF alleged that Hezbollah had built bunkers under Beirut's Al Saleh hospital and was using civilian buildings as their "finance hub." While emphasising that the IDF would not strike the hospital, IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that "the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out a series of precise strikes on these Hezbollah financial strongholds," with their primary targets being "an underground vault with tens of millions of dollars in cash and gold. The money was being used to finance Hezbollah's attacks on Israel." Furthermore, Hagari stated the IAF struck around 30 targets across Lebanon, including those linked to Al-Qard-Al-Hassan, a charity that Hagari alleged was a Hezbollah front. Previously, on 19 October, according to the Times of Israel, a Hezbollah drone struck Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in eastern Israel’s Caesarea town. There were no casualties. Netanyahu claimed that “agents of Iran” made a “bitter mistake” by trying to assassinate him. Reiterating his war aims, he said: “We will continue to eliminate your (Hamas and Hezbollah) terrorists, we will return our hostages from Gaza, we will return our residents in the north.” Hezbollah stated that it took “full, complete and exclusive responsibility for the Caesarea operation targeting… Netanyahu.” 

Israel: Hamas kill IDF officer in Gaza
On 20 October, IDF Colonel Ehsan Daksa, commander of the 401st Armoured Brigade, was killed in Gaza’s Jabalia by Hamas fighters in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya. He was killed by a Hamas Improvised Explosive Device (IED), which exploded near him as he was dismounting his tank. Daksa was the fifth IDF officer and the highest-ranking one to be killed in the Gaza War. According to the New York Times, the continuing deaths of IDF officers indicated that Israel had not fully degraded Hamas’ fighting capabilities because it remained a powerful guerilla group.

Africa: Governance progress stagnant since 2022, says Ibrahim Index of African Governance 
On 23 October, the Ibrahim Index of African Governance released its latest edition. It found that governance progress in Africa has been stagnant since 2022. It reports a governance backsliding in 21 African countries, almost half of the continent. Linking the governance backsliding with violence, philanthropist Mo Ibrahim was quoted by Al Jazeera: "If there is deterioration in governance, if there is corruption, if there is marginalisation … people are going to pick up arms." Referring to the civil war in Sudan and the series of coups in West Africa, he highlighted "a huge arc of instability and conflicts" in the continent. The report says there were improvements in 33 countries in infrastructure and women's equality. However, the scores went down in areas of rule of law, rights, political participation and security. 

Africa: Global warming causing deadly floods, warns WWA
On 23 October, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) said that anthropogenic climate change, caused by the use of fossil fuels, has increased global warming, causing heavy rains across the Niger and Lake Chad basins. The exceptional rainfall, 5-20 per cent worse this year, would potentially cause a humanitarian catastrophe in the region. According to OCHA, the floods have killed about 1,500 people and displaced more than one million in West and Central Africa this year. WWA warned that the conditions would continue if the global temperature increases to two degrees Celsius. 

Sudan: Russian cargo plane shot down in Darfur
On 22 October, BBC quoted the Russian embassy in Sudan that a Russian cargo plane with a crew was shot down in Darfur, where the civil war between the SAF and the RSF has been ongoing. According to the Russian embassy, the aircraft, Ilyushin Il-76, was delivering equipment and medicine to el-Fasher city. On 21 October, the Rapid Support Force (RSF) claimed that they had shot down a Russian plane flown by the Egyptian military, which was bombing civilians. Egypt denied the accusations. 

South Sudan: One million affected by floods, says OCHA
On 21 October, BBC quoted OCHA that over a million people in South Sudan have been affected by the floods. In the Pibor region, at least 112,000 people have been displaced due to the heavy floods. According to OCHA, the floods have disrupted aid supply routes, affecting nearly 500,000. 

Somalia: Seven people killed in a suicide bomb attack
On 18 October, Al Jazeera reported that at least seven people were killed in a suicide bomb attack in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. The attack happened outside a police training school. Al Shabab has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

Kenya: UNHCR raises concerns over repatriation of Turkish nationals
On 21 October, UNHCR raised concerns over the repatriation of refugees from Kenya to Turkey. Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that four Turkish refugees were repatriated at the request of the Turkish government. This comes after several Turkish citizens and a British national were kidnapped by armed men the previous week. The UNHCR stated: “It urges the Government of Kenya to abide by their international legal obligations, and in particular, to respect the principle of non-refoulment [forced return of refugees], which protects asylum-seekers and refugees from any measure that could lead to their removal to a place where their life or freedom would be threatened.” The four migrants are said to be followers of the Gulen movement, an Islamic community which runs schools in Kenya and worldwide. The group has been blamed for the 2026 coup attempt in Turkey. Turkey’s government has not responded yet. 

Mozambique: Violent protests over electoral fraud
On 21 October, the riot police in Mozambique fired tear gas to disperse the masses protesting against election fraud. This comes after two opposition leaders of the Podemos party were shot dead on 19 October. The EU, the AU, and the UN condemned the incident. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on all "Mozambicans, including political leaders and their supporters, to remain calm, exercise restraint and reject all forms of violence." The AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat expressed "deep concern" over "reported cases of post-election violence and in particular the recent killings." 

Ghana: Parliament suspended after chaos over majority row
On 22 October, Ghana’s parliament speaker suspended proceedings indefinitely after chaos over the parliamentary majority. The previous week, four Members of Parliament (MPs) defected to the opposition party to run for the 7 December general election. However, speaker Alban Bagbin declared defection unconstitutional while in power. Despite being challenged legally, the new changes have put the opposition National Democratic Congress in the majority in the parliament. The Supreme Court directed the speaker to suspend his declaration until the court verdict. Meanwhile, the situation worsened when the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and NDC tried to occupy the seats of the majority party during the first sitting after the Supreme Court directive. 

Ghana: Illegal gold mining causing environmental impacts, BBC story
On 20 October, a BBC story discussed illegal gold mining and its environmental impacts in Ghana. According to the report, the illegal miners have been using mercury to extract gold on a massive scale in forests and farms. This has led to land degradation and water pollution. It says that the waters in the region are so thick and discoloured that the group WaterAid calls it "ecocide." Ghana is the sixth largest exporter of gold in the world. Recently, protests have been held in the capital, Accra, demanding that the government end illegal mining. The hashtags, including #stopgalamseynow and #freethecitizens, became popular and mobilised the young people. However, the government has taken too little action to curb the situation. 

Europe and The Americas
Turkey: Terrorist attack in Ankara
On 23 October, a terrorist attack was carried out against the Turkish Aerospace Industries Inc. (TUSAS) facilities in the capital Ankara. The Minister of the Interior of Türkiye, Ali Yerlikaya, informed that three individuals were killed in the attack, and two terrorists were neutralized. TUSAS is responsible for the maintenance of F-16 fighter jets in Türkiye and the sale of systems including military and training aircraft. The Minister of Justice of Turkiye, Yilmaz Tunc, stated that the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office had launched a judicial investigation into the attack. NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, expressed support for Türkiye following the terror attack. 

Russia: South Korea and the US warn against North Korea's troop deployment
On 23 October, Yonhap News Agency quoted South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) that around 3000 soldiers were expected to have been sent to Russia for military support. The agency added that 10000 more are believed to be stationed by December 2024. On 23 October, Politico reported that NATO and the US had confirmed the alleged deployment of North Korean troops in Russia. According to the US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, this is a serious issue which would impact Europe and the Indo-Pacific. He said that the US was investigating the rewards North Korea would receive for helping Russia. NATO spokesperson, Farah Dakhlallah, said: “Allies have confirmed evidence of a DPRK troop deployment to Russia. If these troops are destined to fight in Ukraine, it would mark a significant escalation in North Korea’s support for Russia.”

Russia: More than 100 Ukrainian drones destroyed
On 20 October, Russia Today reported on the destruction of more than 100 Ukrainian drones in the Russian region. A report from Reuters suggests that Ukraine had targeted an explosives plant along with a storage facility in the Lipetsk region. The plant located deep inside Russia was one of its kind, subject to several sanctions from the US and the EU. Meanwhile, the Russian Air defences intercepted 110 UAVs over the Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Bryansk and Moscow regions. According to the governor of Nizhny Novgorod region, Gleb Nikitin, the attack aimed to target an industrial zone. He added that it injured four firefighters.

Russia: Prisoner exchange with Ukraine
On 19 October, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation confirmed the swap of 95 Ukrainian soldiers for an equal number of Russian soldiers in a deal with the Government of Ukraine. The ministry also informed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) helped broker the exchange deal. The human rights centre, Zmina, informed that Maksym Butkevych, a Ukrainian human rights activist and co-founder of an independent radio station, was among the prisoners released. The Ukrainian government did not confirm the hostage exchange deal. Several prisoner exchange deals between Russia and Ukraine have been agreed upon since the war, with the UAE, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia helping to broker. 

Ukraine: The Prosecutor General's office investigates the execution of Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region
On 21 October, Ukrinform reported on the execution of captured Ukrainian soldiers by Russian forces. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office (PGO) launched a pre-trial investigation into the execution of two Ukrainian soldiers near the Selydove, Donetsk region. According to preliminary data, Russian military servicemen captured the two on 18 October in the Pokrovsk district of the Donetsk region. They put them face down on the ground and shot them at close range with automatic rifles. According to PGO, the shooting of the prisoners violated the Geneva Conventions. The investigation was headed by the Main Directorate of the Security Service of Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Russia: Second maritime exercise with Myanmar
On 21 October, The Moscow Times reported on the "Second Myanmar-Russia joint maritime security exercise" (MARUMEX) conducted between 20 and 24 October. The three-day joint drill aimed to defend against air, sea and land threats alongside maritime security measures. The previous drill between the countries was held in November 2023. Four corvettes and a logistic vessel from Russia had arrived at Thilawa port in the Yangon region of Myanmar. Previously, the junta had informed that it would hold a live-fire maritime security exercise in the North Andaman Sea. Regarding this, it had restricted fishing boats and aircraft from travelling around the region.

Ukraine: European Council meeting concludes in support of delivery of air defences
On 17 October, the European Council reported on the conclusions from a meeting of the EU leaders. The EU leaders reiterated their commitment to a comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine in line with the UN Charter and the support of the Ukrainian government. Additionally, they requested the Council to accelerate the delivery of air defence systems, missiles and ammunition systems to Ukraine and increase support for the Ukrainian defence industry. The leaders welcomed the sanctioning of a loan and a loan cooperation mechanism. The need for fair sharing and solidarity with G7 partners was also stressed. EU leaders condemned Russian attacks on the energy and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and called for further action to integrate the energy systems of Ukraine and the EU. They decided to continue sanctions on Russia and ensure effective enforcement. The EU stated its commitment towards imposing new sanctions and import tariffs on Russian and Belarussian products. They stressed the need to ensure accountability for human rights violations committed by Russia. 

Cuba: Hurricane Oscar claims six lives
On 23 October, Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel said that hurricane Oscar caused landfall in the city of Baracoa on 22 October, killing six people. The hurricane destroyed 1,000 homes. Guantánamo province is the worst hit. The hurricane also caused huge power cuts, leaving over ten million Cubans without electricity since 22 October. 

Haiti: Worsening gang violence
On 22 October, the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) informed that there were more alliances between gangs in Haiti being formed, ramping up the violence. Currently, around 3,000 troops are fighting the armed gangs in the country. Residents are pleading with the international community for more security resilience. Since 17 October, more than 4,200 people have been displaced due to violence. Haiti is dealing with famine-like conditions due to heightened gang violence. 

The US: Six more Chinese companies in the export blacklist for supporting Iran
On 22 October, SCMP reported that the US added six Chinese companies to an export blacklist for supporting the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by Iran and the modernization of the Chinese military. The US Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, Thea D Rozman Kendler, stated that the US would cut off firms that acted against US national security. The Entity List entitlement restricts the companies from receiving US technology and goods without a special license. One of the Chinese firms added to the list was Beijing Moreget Creative Technology.  It acquired US-origin items related to aviation simulation technology in support of China’s military modernization. Other firms were Small Leopard Electronics and Shenzhen Dragonfly Supply Chain. Additionally, three other Chinese firms were added for procuring or attempting to procure US-origin items for the WMD and drone-development programs of Iran.

About the authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Samruddhi Pathak and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Advik S Mohan and Sachin Aravind are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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