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CWA # 1599, 20 February 2025
Conflict Weekly
Europe's Ukraine Dilemma

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #269, 20 February 2025, Vol.6, No. 8
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Advik S Mohan and Padmashree Anandhan

Europe’s Ukraine dilemma: Dealing with the Trump challenge
Advik S Mohan and Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 19 February, following the meeting in Riyadh on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US President Donald Trump criticised Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump stated that Ukraine “should have never started” the war and could have stricken a deal instead of mishandling the US aid. In response, Zelenskyy countered Trump’s statement on Ukraine starting the war and said: “I would like to see more truth from the Trump team…I am counting on the unity of Europe and the pragmatism of America”

On the same day, Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said: “Recent developments and this different view of things from the United States now oblige us not only to face the truth, but to move at a very high speed and implement decisions that we have been discussing for long.”

On 18 February, Russia’s government and the US government began talks in Saudi Arabia over ending the war in Ukraine. Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov representing Russia at the negotiations stated Trump’s efforts as a positive shift for US-Russia relations and a positive development to engage in a dialogue. He added: The US had “started to better understand our positions.”

On the same day, US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio who is negotiating for the US said: “The goal is to bring an end to this conflict in a way that's fair, enduring, sustainable and acceptable to all parties involved.”

On 17 February, the emergency summit hosted by the French government to shore support for Ukraine amid Trump’s attempts to negotiate with Russia only showcased the gap in European unity. Leaders from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, Nordic and the Baltic took part however, no concrete support plan for Ukraine was reached. France’s President Emmanuel Macron said: “There is now a necessity for Europeans to do more, better and in a coherent way, for our collective security.”

On 15 February, Zelenskyy called for the creation of an “armed forces of Europe” during his speech at the MSC.  The Ukrainian President also stated that the US could no longer be trusted to come to the defence of Europe.

On 14 February, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen warned at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) that Ukraine's failure would weaken both Europe and the US. Germany’s Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock stated that Europe faced an existential moment and needed to unite for a meaningful peace.

Issues at large
First, Trump’s push for a Ukraine deal. During the presidential election campaign in 2024, Trump stressed to end the Ukraine war quickly. He is observed to be willing to negotiate with Putin, agree to Russian demands, especially after his phone call with Putin, he reiterated to end the war. The US Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth stated it was unrealistic to expect Ukraine to return to its borders before the war began in 2014, or for Ukraine to become a member of NATO. According to a leaked 100-day US peace plan, the Trump administration expects the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk Oblast and for Kyiv to recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories.

Second, the trans-Atlantic divide and Europe’s internal fault lines over Ukraine endgame. Several discussions have been held in the past year to unite Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine. While, Trump’s overtures towards Putin and willingness to negotiate have shocked European leaders. The new president in the US now wants to look inward on domestic issues and cut its external losses resulting in tariffs and claims to acquire Greenland. Trump’s recent actions reflect a clear departure from the, then shared common goal of aiding Ukraine until victory with Europe. However, the larger issue, Europe has to now contend with is the divide within on Ukraine. Hungary and Slovakia’s governments opposing further aid for Ukraine, and the gradual rise of the right across Europe has further rifted the unity for Ukraine. This can be seen on the support for Trump to end the war, pointing to the lack of an EU mandate for a ceasefire in Ukraine and not inviting all European countries for the Paris Summit. The difference over sending of troops to Ukraine was also divided within Europe. Since France started the idea in 2024 to send peacekeeping forces, was supported by the UK and Sweden but was opposed by the Netherlands and Poland while Germany also failed to give a clear stance. Increasing the defence spending is also a key factor where Portugal, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Croatia, Luxembourg and Slovenia continue to fall short of two per cent expenditure threshold of NATO and call to increase will have an impact on domestic politics.

Third, the Trump-Zelenskyy war of words. On Ukraine's exclusion from the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, Zelenskyy stated Trump was living in a disinformation space. Trump angrily reacted to the criticism, calling Zelenskyy a "dictator." Trump also criticised Zelenskyy for delaying the elections, and accused him of breaking a deal over rare earth minerals with the US. Previously, US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent visited Ukraine, offering an agreement wherein Washington would gain access to 50 per cent of the rare earth materials present in Ukraine in exchange for continued military aid. However, the proposed agreement was rejected by Zelenskyy for not offering security guarantees.  Despite the recent criticism from Trump, Zelenskyy attempted to reach out to the US. Before a meeting with the US Special Advisor for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, Zelenskyy stressed the importance of maintaining constructive cooperation with the US. He also stated that a secure peace could be achieved only with the cooperation of the US and Europe.
 
In perspective
First, Europe’s quandary in the Ukraine war. The consecutive summits held amongst the European leaders have neither helped lay a clear path to approach the war in Ukraine post-Trump nor has helped plan to fill the gap in Europe’s security. Both in sending weapons and troops into Ukraine, Europe stands torn as political shift and economic stress sets in. Europe’s dilemma and widening differences with the US towards Ukraine have given way for the Trump administration to dominate the negotiation process which considerably seems to end in favour of Russia.

Second, Trump’s objective to force-end the war. Trump’s efforts in Saudi Arabia indicate the rush to end the conflict however it is uncertain if the deal would favour Ukraine in any way. The exchange of rare earths between the US, and Ukraine and the Kursk region does not provide a stronger base for Ukraine to demand against Russia’s Donbas dream. The predicted Trump peace deal does not promise the end of Russian aggression in the region as well.

NIAS Conflict Tracker:
Where, When and What

Anu Maria Joseph and D Suba Chandran

Gaza: A fragile ceasefire, exchange of hostages, Trump's threat and Arab's search for alternatives
17 February was 500 days after Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel which triggered the war which has killed more than 49,000 people across Israel and Gaza. After a year and three months, a three-phased ceasefire was successfully mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt on 19 January. So far, Hamas has released 24 Israeli hostages and Israel 656 Palestinian prisoners. Negotiations for the second phase are yet to begin. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s proposal to displace the two million Palestinians in the enclave to neighbouring countries is being discussed, criticised and debated across the region. 

Arab countries are in search of an alternative plan. Nevertheless, the international pressure, especially the ‘Trump fear’ not only so far kept the ceasefire in place but also is pressuring Arab countries to find a plan which could supersede Trump’s proposal. Egypt is leading the discussions and the proposal is expected to be finalised during the Arab summit on 4 March in Cairo.

On 20 February, Hamas released the bodies of four Israeli captives. While addressing the families of Israeli captives Hamas said: “Your army and government leaders chose to kill them instead of bringing them back.” Netanyahu's government is being criticised by Israelis for prioritising “land than the lives of people.” However, the public divide is the least of concern for Netanyahu. Hamas will be releasing six other Israeli captives and Israel 502 Palestinians by the end of the week. 

Sudan: SAF's win in Khartoum and rivals' promise of parallel governments 
The civil war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has reached 22 months. A power rivalry between the leaders of the two military factions evolved and intensified with a geographic expansion, Arab-non-Arab ethnic divide and involvement of external actors. The conflict has created the "largest humanitarian crisis in the world." The war is believed to have killed more than 20,000 and displaced above 12.5 million. Nine rounds of ceasefires, mostly led by Saudi Arabia, the US and Egypt, have failed. While much attention and pressure is on Gaza, talks for peace in Sudan are on hold. 

The last week saw significant developments in Sudan with the SAF recapturing large areas of the capital Khartoum and promising a transitional government. The RSF has also announced plans for a parallel "Government of Peace and Unity." 

On 14 February, the RSF attacked the Zamzam displacement camp in el-Fashir where the UN previously declared a famine. On 19 February, BBC reported that the RSF executed around 200 unarmed civilians al-Kadaris and al-Khelwat regions in the White Nile state. Following the setback in Khartoum, the RSF is planning for a rival government with the regions under its control.

The SAF is confident in defeating the RSF once the entire Khartoum is in their hands. However, considering the RSF's control over the other regions, forced recruitment, and abundant weapon supply, the SAF is in no position to defeat the RSF. Besides, despite SAF's proximity to legitimate authority in Sudan, the popular support is not much favourable. 

DR Congo: M23 captures Bukavu town in South Kivu
The Democratic Republic of Congo's M23 problem resurfaced in 2021 against the marginalisation of minority ethnic Tutsi in eastern DRC. M23 has also enjoyed support from Rwanda for its Tutsi kin connection and animosity towards the Hutus who fled to DRC after carrying out the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Three decades after the genocide, it triggered two Congo wars and now another wave of violent conflict with the potential to evolve into a regional crisis. The crisis in eastern DRC has killed thousands and displaced more than six million, marking one of the world's largest humanitarian crises.

The last week of January saw the fall of Goma into the hands of M23, marking the group's major advancement. For M23, capturing Goma was not only politically important but also strategically significant, giving access to many mineral mining towns and trade networks which will be a major source of funding. 

Well anticipated, M23 captured the city of Bukavu in South Kivu this week on 16 February. The rebels have promised to "restore security" in the region. On 17 February, the rebel alliance stated that it would help the people of Bukavu who were "abandoned" by the Congolese army. Many have fled and others have welcomed M23's Bukavu capture. The AU, the UN, the UK, and France are calling to end the fighting and are alarmed about a potential regional spillover. It is highly unlikely that the rebel group will stop advancing with Bukavu and its next target and political intentions in remain unclear.

Myanmar: Continuing military strikes, and the breakdown of negotiations with TNLA
Ever since the coup in 2021 (and even before that), the military in Myanmar has been waging a series of battles with different ethnic armed groups within the country. Some of the major ethnic armed groups include the following: Arakan Army (AA) (based in the Rakhine State), Kachin Independence Army (KIA) ((present in the Kachin State), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and United Wa State Army (UWSA) (both present in the Shan State)

On 20 February, a news report in Irrawady claimed the military killing more than 50 people in its airstrikes during the last ten days. Another report on 20 February in Irrawady referred to the capture of a military base in the Kachin state.

During the week, there was a negotiation in China between Myanmar's military and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The TNLA operates mainly in Shan and Kachin states; while the negotiation was taking place in Kunming, Myanmar's military was reported to have continued its strikes on the TNLA. The negotiations ended with no agreement.The TNLA along with the Arakan Army (AA)and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) forms the "Three Brotherhood Alliance."

Pakistan: Sectarian Violence in Kurram continues
Kurram was a tribal agency in the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and now is a district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Divided into lower and upper regions, the district has a border with Afghanistan in the west. and with other tribal districts - Waziristan, Khyber and Orakzai. Populated by the Pashtun tribes mainly the Turi, Bangash and a few others, the district also has a sectarian difference. While the Turis are Shites, the rest are mostly Sunnis. Throughout the history, the district has witnessed multiple sectarian violence. The latest round of sectarian violence in Kurram started in 2024, and is continuing despite numerous ceasefires and military efforts. 

During the last week, on 18 February, a convoy of security forces and civilian trucks were targeted while crossing lower Kurram to Parachinar, the district capital in upper Kurram. Nine people including five security personnel were killed. On 19 February, the state launched an operation.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Fleur Elizebeth Philip and C Shraddha

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi chairs UNSC debate on International Peace and Security
On 18 February, China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi chaired a debate session at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The debate focused on multilateralism, reformation, global governance, and a call for the “Maintenance of International Peace and Security.” Wang Yi expounded that for the past 80 years, the world saw polarization and globalization, now the global south has risen and grown in strength, and societies have come out of the shadow of the world wars. Yi said: “The international community drew painful lessons from the scourge of two world wars, and the United Nations was founded” and that there is a need to “reinvigorate true multilateralism, and speed up efforts to build a more just and equitable global governance system.” He asserted that China will support peace talks to resolve conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. Wang Yi noted: “Gaza and the West Bank are the homeland of the Palestinian people, not a bargaining chip in political trade-offs. The Palestinians governing Palestine is an important principle that must be followed in the post-conflict governance of Gaza.”

China: Protests US omitting statements on Taiwan’s independence  
On 17 February, BBC reported that the US Department of State omitted a statement from their website on the US not supporting Taiwan’s independence. The statement sparked complaints from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said: “This sends a wrong and serious signal to separatist forces advocating for Taiwan independence and is another example of the U.S. stubbornly persisting with its wrong policy of using Taiwan to contain China.” The US’ move was appreciated by Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-Lung as a positive friendly wording towards Taiwan. Meanwhile, the American Institute in Taiwan noted that this showcases the unofficial relations between Taiwan and the US. 

China: Calls US tariffs a threat to the global trading system at the WTO
On 18 February, China condemned US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration at the World Trade Organization (WTO). China’s Ambassador to WTO Li Chenggang said: “These 'Tariff Shocks' heighten economic uncertainty, disrupt global trade, and risk domestic inflation, market distortion, or even global recession,” and that “worse, the US unilateralism threatens to upend the rules-based multilateral trading system.” WTO’s Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged that the member countries should refrain from retaliating against these tariffs as it might lead to trade wars. Trump administration imposed ten per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports leading to China filing a complaint at the WTO.

Myanmar: 50,000 Chinese nationals deported after accused of running scam centres
On 18 February, Myanmar’s military regime deported over 50,000 Chinese nationals suspected of being involved in online scams. Myanmar's scam centres have mushroomed especially in the borderlands, staffed and managed by foreigners, working illegally. The majority of these borderland scam groups are run by militias and have been used by resistance groups to fuel income against the Junta. The Chinese government has inadvertently supported the resistance groups in Myanmar to strike a balance and maintain peace at the border. This has led to Chinese nationals often migrating to Myanmar to open scam businesses. 

Myanmar: Chinese and Thai pressure on scam compounds of Myanmar
On 17 February, China’s Assistant Minister of Public Security Liu Zhongyi met the victims of the online scam compounds in Karen state. Lui, Myanmar Deputy Minister of Home Affairs Major General Aung Kyaw, and several Thailand officials visited the compound, as three countries’ crackdown the scam operations along the border. Scam compounds are operating in the territories under the control of the junta-allied Karen Border Guard Force (BGF), led by Saw Chit Thu. Thailand is preparing to arrest Chit Thu and other BGF leaders. Before the visit, Lui met with Myanmar’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Than Swe and Minister of Home Affairs General Tun Tun Naung to discuss the scam crackdown, return of the victims, and transfer of the suspects to China. The military has rounded up to 1030 undocumented migrants at Myawaddy. Until now, 61 people have returned to Thailand. The Chinese Embassy in Yangon stated that China and Myanmar have agreed to strengthen their security cooperation. In response to this, the BGF has declared its own scam crackdown claiming that they will transfer 10,000 foreign nationals back to Mae Sot, Thailand, at a rate of 500 per day. Scam centres have thrived for years in Shwe Kokko, Myawaddy, where the numbers blew up after a joint crackdown by China and the regime in the northern Shan state between 2023 and 2024. Thai Prime Minister Paetogtarn Shinawatra discussed scam operations and takedown with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing in February.

South Asia 
Pakistan: 13 terrorists killed in five separate operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 13 February, security personnel killed 13 terrorists in five different operations launched across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, according to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). The first operation in Dera Ismail Khan killed five members of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The security forces additionally encountered terrorists in Dosali and Tappi, killing five. Two terrorists were killed in Lakki Marwat while one was killed in the Bagh area of Khyber district. The ISPR statement highlighted that those killed were “actively involved in numerous terrorist activities against the security forces as well as the killing of innocent civilians.” 

Pakistan: Roadside bomb kills 11 coal miners in Balochistan
On 14 February, a bomb explosion along the road between Takari to Shahrag in Balochistan killed 11 coal miners and wounded seven others. No terrorist group has claimed the responsibility for the assault. As per the Levies officials, the attack was carried out using an improvised explosive device. The assault was criticised by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Chief Minister of Balochistan Sarfaraz Bugti, Governor of Balochistan Sheikh Jaffar Khan Mandokhail and President Asif Ali Zardari. 

Pakistan: TTP continues to receive uninterrupted backing from the Afghan government, UN report
On 15 February, Dawn cited a UN report which says that the proscribed terrorist organization Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to receive backing from the current Taliban government of Afghanistan. The backing remains uninterrupted despite Pakistan urging the Taliban government to cut off its ties with the TTP. As per the report, the “status and strength of the TTP in Afghanistan had not changed.” TTP has intensified its attacks against Pakistan and has carried out more than 600 attacks between 1 July and 13 December 2024. The report highlighted TTP receiving uninterrupted “logistics and financial support” from the Taliban regime. The report mentioned that Noor Wali Masoud, the head of TTP, receives USD 43000 from the Taliban government monthly. TTP has also increased its presence by opening “new training centres” in several provinces in Afghanistan including Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost and Paktika. In response, Pakistan has enhanced its military operations to demolish TTP bases, especially in Paktika and Khost. Military operations under Pakistan’s Azmi-Istekham comprise cross-border raids and retaliatory strikes. The report additionally mentioned TTP joining several other militant outfits such as the Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) which has increased its operational capabilities. The report cautioned that TTP has the potential to be an “extra-regional threat” and an overarching terrorist organization for all other militant outfits in the subcontinent. The report further mentioned that the Baloch Liberation Army, a separatist outfit of Balochistan, have links with the TTP and developed mutual strategic interests. 

Pakistan: Attack on Levies check post in Kalat
On 16 February, a Levies check post in Kalat, Balochistan was attacked by unknown men. The gun battle between the Levies and the attackers killed one Levies official and injured two others. Separately, on 15 February, a check post of the Frontier Corps in Kech, Balochistan was attacked by unidentified militants. FC officials retaliated. The exchange of fire killed three soldiers and wounded six others. Separately, unknown men on motorcycles attacked a police station in Noshki, Balochistan with a hand grenade. No fatalities were reported. 

Pakistan: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government embarks on an operation to root out militants after a series of attacks in Kurram
On 17 February, an aid convoy travelling along the Thall-Parachinar road was attacked in Lower Kurram. The clashes killed a soldier and wounded seven others in the convoy. Another assault on security forces attempting to prevent the militants from ransacking the trucks in the aid convoy wounded five FC personnel. FC’s Quick Response force which was sent to rescue the wounded soldiers came under attack, killing four FC personnel. Following the series of attacks, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government spokesperson Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif informed that the provincial government has initiated an operation to root out the militants from the region. He further informed that the residents would be moved out before the security forces engaged in the operation. Criticizing the role of tribal elders, he said: “The peace committees have failed to stop miscreants. Tribal elders should have handed over miscreants to the government.” 

Pakistan: Security forces neutralize 30 terrorists in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 17 February, security forces conducted an intelligence-based operation in South Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing 30 terrorists, according to ISPR. President Asif Ali Zardari expressed his commitment towards the complete neutralization of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists. He said: “The entire nation is united against terrorism.” Previously, the security forces killed 13 militants in five separate operations in KP. In January, 30 militants were killed in three operations in KP. The surge in militant attacks comes after the TTP’s unilateral withdrawal from a ceasefire agreement with the government in 2022.

Pakistan: Seven passengers from Punjab shot dead in Balochistan
On 18 February, unknown gunmen opened fire on passengers travelling in a bus in Barkan, Balochistan, killing seven people. As per Barkhan’s Assistant Commissioner, the gunmen abducted the seven passengers to a mountain after checking their identity cards. The seven passengers were from Punjab. Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti criticised the actions of the gunmen, terming it a “heinous and reprehensible act.” He warned that the terrorists “will face a strong response.” No terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

India: President's rule imposed in Manipur 
On 13 February, the President of India, Draupadi Murmu announced the President's rule in Manipur amidst the ongoing violence. This comes after Chief Minister of Manipur N Biren Singh’s resignation on 9 February. After talks with the Union Minister of Home Amit Shah and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president JP Nadda, the BJP-led government in Manipur was dissolved. It is unclear when the president's rule will continue as a consensus has to be reached between the BJP Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) and National Democratic Alliance allies including the National People's Party and the Naga People's Front. The Indigenous Tribal Leader's Forum of the Kuki-Zo group spokesperson, Ginza Vualzong, expressed hope for peace under the President's rule. He said: "The Kuki-Zo do not trust Meitei anymore, so a new Meitei CM is still far from comforting. President’s Rule will give a ray of hope to the Kuki-Zo, and we believe that it will be one step closer to our political solution."  

India: 4.0 magnitude earthquake in New Delhi
On 17 February, the Center for Seismology reported a 4.0 magnitude earthquake at a depth of five kilometres in New Delhi. Separately, a 4.0 magnitude earthquake hit Bihar which struck a depth of ten kilometres. The tremors were felt across Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad and Greater Noida. However, no damages or casualties were reported. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged those affected to "stay calm," "follow safety precautions" and stay "alert for possible aftershocks.” 

India: Fishermen protest against Sri Lankan navy
On 17 February, more than 500 fishermen protested in Karaikal against the alleged attack by the Sri Lankan Navy. The protests have been ongoing since 10 February. On 17 February, demonstrations were staged by blocking the Karaikal-Velankanni train. They demanded urgent treatment of those affected and their return. This comes after the Sri Lankan Navy allegedly assaulted and arrested fishermen who were accused of crossing the International Maritime Boundary Line (IBML) on 23 January. 

Bangladesh: Protestors call for equal water share from Teesta River
On 18 February, a 48-hour sit-in was conducted at Teesta River's banks demanding an equal share of water. The march from Lalmonirhat railway through Kaunia upazila was led by Bangladesh National Party's executive committee secretary Asadul Habib. The river dries up in summer and becomes turbulent during the monsoons. The protestors accused India of its unilateral use of water through the Gajoldoba Barrage upstream. They accused India of withholding water during the dry season causing the riverbed to turn into a desert and releasing excess water during the monsoons causing flooding in the Rangpur region of Bangladesh.

The Middle East and Africa
Jordan: Foreign Minister says Arab countries preparing Gaza plan, but Jordan cannot accept more Palestinians
On 14 February, Jordan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ayman Safadi, stated that Arab countries were jointly formulating a plan for rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians there. Addressing the Munich Security Conference, Safadi insisted “unequivocally” that since 35 per cent of Jordan’s population were already Palestinian refugees, the Kingdom could not afford any more of them. Safadi stressed: “They (Palestinians) don’t want to come to Jordan, and we don’t want them to come to Jordan.” Additionally, two European diplomatic sources revealed that Jordan’s King Abdullah had framed the Arab proposal as a counter to Trump’s plan of emptying Gaza of Palestinians. The King allegedly appealed to Trump’s business acumen by presenting the plan as a “cheaper and faster” alternative to the latter’s plans. Safadi claimed that the plan would “guarantee security and governance.” However, the Jordanian Minister highlighted that for the plan to work, “Israelis also have to think long-term. For it to live in peace and security, its neighbours need to live in peace and security.” Additionally, Safadi warned that despite the global focus on Gaza, the real danger of security escalation came from the West Bank. With mounting settler violence and Israeli security operations, the western enclave had become “a powder keg that could explode,” Safadi said. Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia was spearheading Arab countries’ efforts to develop the Gaza plan. This marked a departure from the Kingdom’s earlier policy, which saw Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman refuse any support to reconstruction efforts until a Palestinian state was promised. Trump’s position appeared to have forced Riyadh to concede its earlier position. 

Israel: IDF withdraws from Lebanon border except for five villages; LAF begins deploying
On 18 February, Israeli forces evacuated from southern Lebanon, maintaining a presence in five Lebanese border villages. The Israeli withdrawal occurred an hour before the deadline mentioned in the ceasefire deal with Hezbollah was due to expire. Confirming the pull-out, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, noted: “The Israeli army has withdrawn from all border villages except for five points.” Katz pointed out that the five locations were “strategic outposts” and constituted a “buffer zone” from where the IDF would “continue to enforce (the deal) forcefully…against any violation by Hezbollah.” Katz added that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would gradually occupy the evacuated towns and villages as damaged roads and unexploded ordnance were delaying their movements in some areas. The LAF stated that its troops had entered multiple border villages, including Aabbasiyyeh, Majidieh, Kafr Kila, Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jbeil, among several others. The LAF added that it was coordinating these deployments with the US and French-led supervising committee, the UNIFIL peacekeepers, and Israel. Although Israel had earlier asserted that it would maintain a military presence in the five positions after meeting the 18 February deadline, Najat Charafeddine, spokesperson for Lebanon’s presidency, criticised the Israeli position. In a threat to Tel Aviv, the spokesperson stated that any remaining Israeli posts on Lebanese territory would be considered occupation and made to withdraw by all means necessary. Meanwhile, the IDF intensified its presence on the Israeli side with the Lebanon border. Apart from creating new posts in front of all border communities and installing better surveillance capabilities, including radars, cameras, and sensors, the number of Israeli troops along the Lebanon border has reportedly tripled. 

Israel: Demonstrators mark 500 days of Hamas attack, call for the release of remaining hostages
On 17 February, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square to commemorate 500 days of Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack against Israel. The crowd implored the Benjamin Netanyahu government to arrange for the return of all hostages in Gaza. Before the march, the participants had held a 500-minute fast, marking the number of days since their loved ones were taken captive. Addressing the crowds via pre-recorded video, former hostage Iair Horn urged them to apply pressure on the government and get the remaining hostages released. He commented: “My body endured this captivity, and I’m telling you, the hostages do not have any more time…We’re out of time. We must return them now.” 

Israel: Katz announces new MoD directorate for “voluntary” emigration of Gaza
On 18 February, Israel’s Minister of Defence (MoD) Israel Katz announced a new directorate with the Ministry, tasked with enabling Palestinians to voluntarily leave the Gaza Strip. The directorate’s establishment followed an assessment meeting held by Katz the previous day. The new department will include representatives from various government bodies and ministries. According to the MoD’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the directorate, which is in the planning stages, would include “extensive assistance that will allow any Gaza resident who wants to emigrate to a third state.” The MoD would reportedly provide such individuals “special departure arrangements through the sea, air, and land, among other things.” Katz’s plan to establish the directorate reportedly came from US President Donald Trump’s idea of relocating all Gazans and converting the enclave into a Middle East “Riviera” along the Mediterranean Sea. Such plans, however, have been criticised for supporting the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza.

Syria: Human Rights Watch calls for removal of sanctions
On 18 February, Human Rights Watch (HRW) called for the removal of sanctions imposed on Syria by the US, the EU, the UK and others, alleging that the sanctions hinder the supply of essential services to the war-torn country. HRW stated that the sanctions, imposed as punitive measures against Syria's former regime of Bashar al-Assad, had reason to continue after his downfall. Furthermore, the sanctions lacked clear and measurable conditions for withdrawal, making them a hurdle to Syria’s economic and humanitarian reconstruction. HRW’s statements aligned with its previous observations that sanctions hindered aid delivery during humanitarian disasters, like the 2023 earthquake in northern Syria. Sanctioning parties, the rights body noted, should prioritise the well-being of Syria’s civilians and enable access to basic rights, including Syria’s access to global financial systems and trading networks. 

Sudan: UN Secretary-General calls for immediate peace
On 15 February, during the African Union Summit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for global support to address the crises in Sudan. While addressing the conference in Addis Ababa, Guterres highlighted the need for “tremendous leverage for good” and humanitarian aid to help the Sudanese people “enduring staggering violence and displacement.” He praised women-led organisations and local responders for their bravery in protecting civilians, providing aid and ensuring access. He urged for peace and an end to the incessant flow of weapons before Ramadan.

DR Congo: M23 rebels capture Bukavu in South Kivu province
On 17 February, M23 rebels captured the town of Bukavu in South Kivu province. The group later promised to “restore security” in Bukavu. According to Al Jazeera, the capture of Bukavu faced little to no resistance from the fleeing Congolese army. While many residents flew, several others welcomed the capture. The capture of Bukavu comes after the Bukavu airport was seized on 14 February. Meanwhile, On 14 February, Al Jazeera quoted a UNICEF report on the surge in targeted attacks and sexual violence against children. UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell has appealed to the M23 rebel group to stop the violence in eastern DRC. According to Russell, the number of rape cases has increased five-fold in one week across 42 health facilities. The UNICEF’s communication chief in DRC, Lianne Gutcher, told The Associated Press that out of the 527 rape cases reported, 170 were children. Additionally, on 12 February, a senior UN official told the BBC that the pause in US foreign aid has "severely impacted" humanitarian efforts in DR Congo. According to Bruno Lemarquis, the country received 70 per cent of its aid from the US, making it the largest recipient.

About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Advik S Mohan is an independent scholar based in Bangalore. Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Fleur Elizebeth Philip is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. C Shraddha is a postgraduate student at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. 

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IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn