NIAS Area Studies


PAKISTAN READER

Photo Source: Al Jazeera
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1687, 29 May 2025
Conflict Weekly
Conflict Weekly # 282-83

 

Conflict Weekly #282&283, 29 May 2025, Vol.6, No. 21 & 22
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta and Padmashree Anandhan

Gaza: The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive 
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 28 May, thousands of Palestinians rushed into a US and Israeli-backed aid distribution centre in Rafah, resulting in a stampede that killed four people. Palestinian sources claimed that the fatalities were caused by warning shots fired by Israeli troops present at the scene. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which was providing the aid, distributed around 8000 food boxes but had to scale down its operations because of the overcrowding. 

Previously, on 27 May, the then GHF chief, Jake Wood, resigned from the organisation. Wood hinted that the agency’s composition of “loose constellation of...a wide range of stakeholders” hampered its ability to uphold “humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence.” On the same day, Germany’s Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, criticised Israel’s ongoing military offensive in Gaza, claiming that the latter’s actions were unjustifiable. 

On 22 May, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the IDF had established control over 50 per cent of Gaza’s landmass as part of its Operation Gideon’s Chariots, and was planning to “separate civilians from Hamas.”  Previously, Israeli airstrikes stalled the entry of 65 aid trucks into Gaza through the Kerem Shalom Crossing. 

Issues at large
First, Israel’s new offensive and stalled hostage negotiations. The ongoing IDF operations are part of Israel’s fresh Gaza offensive. Beginning on 16 May, the operation aims to destroy Hamas’ remaining military and political capabilities and secure Israeli control over the entire Gaza Strip. The operation unfolded alongside failed hostage negotiations led by Egypt and Qatar. Around the same time, Netanyahu publicly shifted his war priorities, stating that defeating Hamas and reoccupying the enclave was now his “supreme objective,” rather than rescuing the remaining hostages.

Second, the UN-Israel disagreements over aid suppliers. Ever since the IDF established control over Southern Gaza and the enclave boundary areas with Israel, Netanyahu has used the GHF to provide aid to the Palestinians, instead of UN agencies. The decision has faced staunch criticism from the UN agencies, especially the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), on several grounds. First, unlike the UN agencies, which work through established local channels, GFA is untrained and untested in Gaza. Second, the GHF is headed by former IDF officers, reservists, Israeli businessmen, and former CIA officers. These political links compromise its impartiality, making it complicit in Israel’s tactics of delays, diversion, and discrimination in aid provision. In contrast, the UN-affiliated staff function as an international civilian presence in Gaza, providing impartial coverage of Israel’s actions. Third, unlike UN agencies that operate across the Strip, GHF’s reach is limited to southern Gaza. This arrangement forces Palestinians to travel from northern Gaza to the Israel-occupied south, contravening the norm of providing aid at the recipient’s location and enabling Israel’s unstated policy of displacing Gazans. However, for Netanyahu, UN agencies harbour an anti-Israel bias and are prone to infiltration and diversion of aid by Hamas, which necessitates a US-Israeli presence.

Third, Western partners’ criticism of Israel. Merz’s remarks followed growing criticism against Israel’s latest operations from its major Western partners. Previously, the leaders of France, Canada, and the UK penned a letter to the Israeli government, urging it to halt its latest operations. The trio warned of “concrete actions,” including recognising the State of Palestine, if Netanyahu did not comply. Merz’s remarks appeared to depart from the established post-World War II German foreign policy consensus, which treated Israel’s security, as defined by Israel itself, as Germany’s national interest. With public opinion in Europe turning increasingly anti-Israel, Merz and other European leaders’ statements broke the norm against criticising Israel prevailing in western capitals since 7 October 2023.
 
In perspective
First, Israel’s re-occupation of Gaza is likely to deepen the Israeli-Palestinian divide. As political history shows, previous periods of Israeli occupation did not root out Palestinian nationalism. Second, Netanyahu does not view the debate over aid suppliers as a matter of expertise or training, but of undermining Hamas’ political capabilities by consolidating Israeli presence in Gaza. While Israel’s occupation is problematic, there is a grain of truth in Netanyahu’s argument about Hamas infiltration. The problem is particularly severe in Gaza, since Hamas is deeply embedded in Palestinian society.  Third, recent Western statements against Israel do not reflect a change in their Israel policy. Most Euro-American criticisms have only called for a slowdown in the pace and intensity of IDF operations, rather than any fundamental shift in the re-occupation policy. Moreover, unless Western partners take any tangible measures against Israel, like sanctions or cessation of weapons supplies, their carte blanche to Netanyahu effectively continues. 

Ukraine: Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners 
Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 27 May, Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched 60 drones at Ukraine overnight attack. On 26 May, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy accused Russia of preparing a new offensive following the largest drone attack, along with cruise missiles. The attack targeted civilian infrastructure across northern, central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, resulting in 13 deaths. 

During 23 and 25 May, Politico reported on the prisoner swap of 1000 each between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Among those who returned today are soldiers from our army, the State Border Service, and the National Guard of Ukraine.”

On 27 May, US President Donald Trump warned Putin, "playing with fire" and severe consequences. On 26 May, he criticised Putin following a wave of deadly drone and missile attacks on Ukraine and warned: “Putin’s ambition to take all of Ukraine would ultimately lead to Russia’s downfall.” While acknowledging his historically good relationship with Putin, Trump said the Russian leader had "gone absolutely CRAZY." 

On 26 May, the Kremlin warned that any Western move to lift range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine would be "dangerous." Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that such decisions, if confirmed, would undermine hopes for peace and escalate the conflict further. On 27 May, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, reported on the ongoing process for a draft memorandum outlining its conditions for a potential peace deal to end the war. 

On 29 May, the German government signed a EUR five billion agreement with Ukraine to deepen military cooperation. The deal focuses on the joint production and procurement of long-range missile systems made in Ukraine, with no restrictions on their range.

Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s inability to defend its airspace. Russia continues to launch missiles and drones. Ukraine’s struggles to intercept these attacks highlight its weakness in air defence capacity. Till now, Ukraine has received Patriot missile systems, IRIS-T, NASAMS and new Gravehawk systems from the western allies. However, it faces a shortage of modern air defence systems as the pledged support of the West has been insufficient or delayed. This gap has resulted in the loss of major infrastructure and urban centres, increasingly making Ukraine’s military and civilians vulnerable. 

Second, Trump’s big words with no concrete action. Trump positioned himself as a staunch mediator capable of ending the war. His repeated efforts for the ceasefire through signalling trade deals with Russia or warning against imposing sanctions have not materialised. The calls with Putin have been rather symbolic than actual measures to pressure Russia into a ceasefire. While no peace framework, timeline for talks or sanction measures have been decided, Ukraine continue to be at the brunt of aerial attacks, casualties and damage.

Third, Russia’s contradicting strategies. Putin proposed direct talks but to not show up in Istanbul. He appreciates the Trump administration as more understanding of Russia’s interests but no concrete agreements resulted from the calls or meetings. He insists on not returning the Donbas and Crimea regions and demands legal recognition of the annexed territories, but demands that Ukraine should never join NATO. On the ground, there have been a few proposals from Russia calling for a short-term ceasefire however, the drone strikes and capturing of villages in the eastern front do not seem to stop. 
 
In perspective
First, Russia’s ambiguity is a strategy to win all. Russia has managed to deter the US from sending full-scale military aid to Ukraine by keeping the talks always on edge. This has helped it to continue its strikes on the ground, only strengthening its negotiation position. Europe’s sanctions and the threat of unrestricted supply of a range of weapons have earned strong objections from Russia. Putin’s direct threat to Europe on using “military winnings” will add more concern to European security as Europe still grapples with balancing between defence investments and economic stress. Russia's current stance on the ground and in the negotiations has broken all the predictions of non sustaining a prolonged war. It has strategically managed to use its resources within such as Wagner troops, and external aid from Iran, Belarus, North Korea, and China to strengthen its position in the war.  Thereby successfully keeping all the supporting allies of Ukraine in tense. 

Second, the European push. With Trump leading the negotiations with Russia, European leaders have been keen on mounting pressure on Russia through sanctions. However, the sanctions have failed to slow down Russia. The latest measure to lift restrictions on the range of weapons supply combined with aid to develop Ukraine’s long-range missile production, showcases Europe’s push to not only pressure Russia but strengthen Ukraine’s defence for the long term.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Farhaz Rashid Ahmed, Rizwana S, and Lekshmi Muthu

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Afghanistan
On 21 May, China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi hosted trilateral talks with his Pakistan and Afghanistan counterparts, Ishaq Dar and Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Beijing. China pledged to support both countries in defending sovereignty, security, and national dignity. The three sides agreed “in principle” to exchange ambassadors soon. Wang emphasized strengthening diplomatic ties and cooperation under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The ministers agreed to boost collaboration on law enforcement, counterterrorism, and safeguarding against foreign interference. These developments came after the escalation of military tensions between India and Pakistan and a recent school bus bombing in southwestern Pakistan. China, while not formally recognising the Taliban, has supported it economically since 2021. Wang reaffirmed China’s “ironclad” support for Pakistan and vowed to deepen economic, security, and diplomatic ties with Afghanistan, promoting peace, stability, and mutual development across the region.

China: Foreign Ministry criticises the US “Golden Dome” missile defence plan
On 21 May, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning expressed strong opposition to the US “Golden Dome” missile defence project. He described it as a serious threat to global stability. The program aims to create a worldwide, multi-layered missile shield by 2029, which China views as a violation of international agreements. Chinese military expert Song Zhongping warned that the project, which may cost over USD 831 billion according to the Congressional Budget Office, could provoke a new arms race in space. He stated that the initiative reflects a US desire for military dominance and described it as an advanced version of Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” program. China's Ministry of National Defence criticised the plan and urged the US to abandon Cold War thinking. A joint statement by China and Russia rejected the militarisation of outer space.

China: Beijing sending military supplies to Russia, claims Ukraine’s intelligence agency
On 26 May, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Chief, Oleh Ivashchenko, reported that China is supplying Russia a range of goods used in defence manufacturing industries. He said: “There is information that China supplies tooling machines, special chemical products, gunpowder, and components specifically to defence manufacturing industries.” He added that Ukrainian intelligence had information on at least five cases of Russia-China cooperation in the aviation sector in 2024-2025, including the supply of equipment, spare parts, and documentation. Without providing details, he noted that there were six cases of “large shipments” of special chemicals. In April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Beijing of providing direct military assistance to Moscow, which Beijing retaliated against as “groundless.”

China: President Xi sets regulations to protect military-industrial facilities
On 26 May, China’s President Xi Jinping signed a set of new regulations to protect China’s important military-industrial facilities. The regulation, jointly published by China’s State Council and Central Military Commission (CMC), aims to secure important military-industrial facilities, ensure their effectiveness and standard operations to modernise the country's national defence. This will apply to buildings, sites, and other facilities used for the research, production, testing, and storage of important weaponry and equipment. It mandates security measures, including the establishment of protection zones without authorisation, and the prohibition of activities like photography, videography, or documentation. The violation of the rules may result in criminal penalties. This regulation comprises 51 articles in seven chapters and will take effect on 15 September 2025.

China: Imposes 74.9 per cent anti-dumping duties on polyoxymethylene products from the US, the EU, Japan, and Taiwan
On 18 May, China imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of POM copolymers from the US, the EU, Japan and Taiwan for the next five years. Polyoxymethylene is a high-performance engineering thermoplastic known for its strength, rigidity, and dimensional stability. China’s Ministry of Commerce stated: “The highest anti-dumping rates of 74.9 per cent were levied on imports from the United States, while European shipments will face 34.5 per cent duties.” Japanese imports incurred 35.5 per cent duties, except the Asahi Kasei Corp, which received a company-specific rate of 24.5 per cent. Similarly, Taiwan incurred general duties of 32.6 per cent, except Formosa Plastics, which received a four per cent tariff and Polyplastics Taiwan 3.8 per cent.

China: Establishes new military schools for PLA’s modernisation
On 16 May, SCMP reported that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and China's Ministry of Defence announced the establishment of new military academies for its newly reorganised service branches. This is intended to facilitate the PLA's reform towards a modern, high-technology warfare by 2027 and a world-class army by 2049. The ministry spokesperson, Jiang Bin, stated that these academies will assist in adapting to the restructuring requirements and enhancing the training of the military. The new units are the PLA Ground Force Service Academy in Hefei, the PLA Information Support Force (ISF) Engineering University in Wuhan, and the PLA Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF) Engineering University in Chongqing. These will enrol high school graduates. Current academies are being affiliated to create new ones, while the PLA Ground Force would run several specialist academies.

North Korea: Kim Jong Un oversees the air force drills
On 17 May, the Korea Times reported on air force drills supervised by Kim Jong Un. He called them “a breakthrough in war preparation.” According to the report, in less than a month, Kim oversaw a missile test, visited the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang to reaffirm the alliance with Russia and supervised tank firing drills and special operations unit training. North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson stated: "The more the U.S. provokes the DPRK with unnecessary and inefficient malicious acts, the further it will escalate the irreconcilable hostility between the DPRK and the U.S.”

South Korea: Military claims North Korea likely received Russian support for air-to-air missiles
On 19 May, the Korea Times reported that the South Korean military raised the possibility of North Korea receiving technological assistance from Russia to develop a new air-to-air missile. The development came after North Korea’s state media, KCNA, reported that the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, oversaw anti-air combat and air drills the previous week. The drills unveiled a suspected live-fire drill involving a new air-to-air missile launched from a Mi-29 fighter jet.  

South Asia
Pakistan: Dismisses India’s assertion of establishing a new normal
On 16 May, Pakistan dismissed India’s narrative of a new normal in Pakistan-India ties. Pakistan demanded that the regard for “sovereignty and territorial integrity” must remain unchanged in the relations between the two countries. The assertions came from the Foreign Office after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on 10 May. Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan appealed to international partners to ensure India does not resort to any form of “aggression.” Meanwhile, India’s Minister of Defence, Rajnath Singh, demanded the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reconsider the USD one billion financial assistance to Pakistan. Singh stated that Islamabad could use the aid to spread terrorism. Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson, Shafqat Ali Khan, responded that New Delhi was attempting to “politicise” the IMF. 

Pakistan: Four levies killed in armed attack along CPEC route in Khuzdar
On 17 May, Dawn reported on an armed attack that killed four levy personnel near the Sanand levies check post in the Khuzdar district along the CPEC road. The officials stated that no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

Pakistan: Balochistan car bomb explosion kills four, injures over 20
On 19 May, The News International reported four deaths and over 20 injured in a car bomb explosion at a Jabbar commercial market in Gulistan town of Balochistan on 18 May. The target of the attack is claimed to be Faizullah Ghabizai, “a pro-government tribal elder.” A heavy firing between Frontier Corps (FC) personnel and unknown armed men followed the explosion. The banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has reportedly claimed responsibility for the FC fort attack. 

Pakistan: Beijing to host trilateral talks with Pakistan and Afghanistan on regional peace
On 19 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan are set to hold trilateral talks in Beijing on 20 May to discuss regional peace and security. The meeting follows recent India-Pakistan tensions and alleged Afghan support for India. Pakistan’s Foreign Office confirmed that Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, is travelling to China on 19 May at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart. 

The Middle East and Africa
Iran: Judiciary condemns the arrest of Iranian cleric in Saudi Arabia
On 27 May, Iran’s judiciary condemned the arrest of cleric Gholamreza Qassemian in Saudi Arabia as “unjustified and illegal.” Qassemain was arrested when he posted a video criticising Saudi Arabia’s recent social reform as a “moral corruption.” He commented: "People will now be able to go to Mecca and Medina for casinos, brothels, and vulgar concerts instead of going to Antalya.” The incident ignited over social media throughout Iran, with mixed reactions. 

Israel: IDF intercepts Houthi missiles at Ben Gurion airport
On 25 May, the Times of Israel reported that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) intercepted a Houthi missile in Yemen, targeting Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv. No injuries or damages have been reported. It was the third attack in four days.

The War in Gaza: Israeli airstrike kill 85; the EU and the UK review trade deals with Israel amidst aid block
On 18 May, Israel's Prime Minister's Office announced approval of a "basic amount" of food into Gaza, easing a full blockade that has been in place for more than two months. Israel has been facing intense international pressure to allow the flow of aid. It was announced hours after the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) began "extensive ground operations" in Gaza. Israel additionally denied Hamas's ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance. Gaza's Ministry of Health reported to AFP that 57 children died from hunger during the blockade. 

On 21 May, Israeli airstrikes killed 85 Palestinians in Gaza, reported by health authorities. The agreed delivery of aid has been troubled by Israel’s security procedures. Although Israel mentioned that 93 trucks entered Gaza on 20 May, the UN confirmed a few dozen to have entered. The UN has warned of a famine affecting Gaza's two million residents. 

On 20 May, the EU diplomat, Kaja Kallas, announced that the bloc will reconsider its trade agreement with Israel over its aid block in Gaza. Kallas stated: “The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The aid that Israel has allowed in is of course, welcomed, but it's a drop in the ocean. Aid must flow immediately, without obstruction and at scale, because this is what is needed.” France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noel Barrot, said that 17 out of 27 member countries support this move. Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: "We completely reject the direction taken in the statement, which reflects a total misunderstanding of the complex reality Israel is facing.” It added: "Ignoring these realities and criticising Israel only hardens Hamas’s position and encourages Hamas to stick to its guns.”

On 20 May, the UK paused free trade talks with Israel amidst escalating military actions in Gaza. It summoned Israel’s Ambassador to the UK, Tzipi Hotovely, and announced new sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank region. UK’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, David Lammy, condemned the Israeli offensive as "monstrous" and a “dark new phase,” and criticised Israel’s Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich’s, words about potentially cleansing Gaza and relocating its residents. Lammy additionally called for an end to the aid blockade of aid and warned of more action if the offensive continues. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the actions as necessary for self-defence, describing it as a "war of civilisation over barbarism" and dismissed the UK’s criticism. 

Syria: Security forces kill three militants in Aleppo
On 17 May, Syrian security forces killed three militants and arrested four during raids in Islamic State (IS) hideouts in Aleppo. One security guard was killed, and one militant blew himself up during the raid.

Yemen: Houthis declare blockade on Israel's Haifa Port 
On 19 May, Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a "maritime blockade" on Israel's Haifa port in response to Israel's continued offensives in Gaza. Houthis spokesperson, Yahya Saree, warned: “All companies with ships present in or heading to this port are hereby notified that, as of the time of this announcement, the aforementioned port has been included in the list of targets.” 

Syria: The EU agrees to lift sanctions
On 20 May, the EU diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said that the foreign ministers in the bloc have agreed to lift economic sanctions on Syria. He stated: “We want to help the Syrian people rebuild a new, inclusive and peaceful Syria.” However, the bloc will maintain sanctions related to the Assad regime “as well as sanctions based on security grounds, including arms and technology that might be used for internal repression,” stated the Council. Besides, it will “introduce additional targeted restrictive measures against human rights violators and those fuelling instability in Syria.” Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: “The Syrian government stands ready to enhance collaborative ties with European businesses and investors, fostering an environment conducive to economic revitalisation and sustainable development.”

Sudan: RSF turns the Zamzam camp into a military base
On 26 May, Africanews reported that Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) transformed the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur into a full-fledged military barrack. This camp hosts 300,000 displaced people and faces severe food shortages. RSF fighters replaced tents with fortified positions, installed checkpoints, and cut off access to aid workers. International watchdogs and rights groups condemned the move.

Mauritius: The UN welcomes the UK-Mauritius deal on the Chagos Islands
On 24 May, the UN welcomed the deal between the UK and Mauritius concerning the Chagos Archipelago, including Diego Garcia. The UK agreed to hand sovereignty over the Islands to Mauritius, while leasing the Diego Garcia base for 99 years with an annual payment of GBP 101 million (USD 136 million). This agreement aims to resolve a long-standing dispute, despite opposition from residents of the islands, who were forcibly evicted in the 1960s and 1970s for the US-UK military base. 

Namibia: Commemorates first Genocide Remembrance Day
On 28 May, Namibia observed the first official Genocide Remembrance Day. The day was dedicated to commemorating the victims of German-run concentration camps between 1904 and 1908. Tens of thousands of people from the Herero and Nama communities were executed during this period. In 2022, Germany acknowledged the genocide and pledged EUR 1.1 billion worth of development aid over 30 years.

Sudan: The UAE blamed for drone attacks on Port Sudan  
On 20 May, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of attacking Port Sudan on 4 May. It is the first time the SAF has blamed the UAE for direct military intervention in its ongoing war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The SAF claimed that the attack involved drones and warplanes launched from an Emirati base, in retaliation for the SAF’s attack on a UAE-linked warplane in the RSF-controlled Nyala region. The UAE denied the accusations, calling them baseless. 

Africa: Global hunger reached a record high in 2024 amidst conflict and extreme weather, a UN-backed report
On 16 May, a UN-backed report, the 2025 Global Report on Food Crises (GFRC), indicated that global hunger hit a new high in 2024, affecting 295 million people across 53 countries and territories. 22.6 per cent of the world's worst-hit regions experienced crisis-level hunger or even worse. According to the report, the main drivers are conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks. Conflict affected 140 million people across 20 countries, leading cause of hunger. This includes Gaza, South Sudan, Haiti and Mali. Economic shocks like inflation and currency devaluation affected 59.4 million people and caused food crises in 15 countries. Extreme weather like El Niño-induced droughts and floods affected 96 million people, especially in Southern Africa, Southern Asia, and the Horn of Africa. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the findings a failure of humanity and stressed the urgency of global action. 

Somalia: 13 people killed in a suicide bomb attack
On 13 May, Al Jazeera reported that at least 13 people were killed in a suicide bombing at the Damanyo base in Mogadishu, Somalia. The attack targeted young recruits at the army recruitment centre. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

Equatorial Guinea: ICJ rules against Gabon on the disputed three oil-rich islands
On 19 May, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favour of Equatorial Guinea in a dispute over three islands located in the oil-rich waters. The islands are Conga, Mbanié and Cocoteros. The dispute has been going on since the 1970s. The ICJ concluded that Equatorial Guinea holds sovereignty over the islands under the 1900 treaty, dividing French and Spanish colonial assets. The court dismissed Gabon’s sovereignty claims over those islands under the 1974 Bata Convention, which switched the islands’ sovereignty in its favour. 

Ethiopia: TPLF condemns the “ban” threatening the Tigray peace deal
On 16 May, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) condemned the ban on its activities as a “serious threat” to the peace deal signed in 2022, which ended the two-year conflict in Tigray. The party was deregistered by the National Election Board of Ethiopia for not holding a general assembly. The TPLF urged the AU to mediate with the federal government. The Tigray interim government is unable to hold general elections due to internal divisions. 

Nigeria: Chinese company invests in defence sector
On 16 May, SCMP reported that Nigeria struck a deal with a leading Chinese defence company, Norinco, on local production of military-grade ammunition, upgrading military hardware, servicing battle tanks and training defence personnel. Nigeria’s Minister of State for Defence, Bello Muhammed Matawalle, said: “This collaboration is a cornerstone of our ambition to achieve self-reliance in defence production.” In March, a high-level Norinco delegation visited Nigeria to discuss local arms production through collaboration and technology transfers. Nigeria used to depend mostly on Western countries for military equipment. Currently, with help from China, it's trying to build domestic weapons and gear to counter security threats. 

Europe and the Americas
Spain: Thousands protest against privatising healthcare in Madrid
On 25 May, Euronews reported that 30,000 people rallied in Madrid against the regional government's healthcare policies, which they argue are leading to the privatisation and dismantling public health system. Organised under the slogan "Let’s Save Our Public Health," the demonstration highlighted widespread dissatisfaction with long waiting times, staff shortages, and the privatisation of health services. Protesters, led by the platform "Vecinas y vecinos de los barrios y pueblos de la Comunidad de Madrid," demanded more funding for primary care. Left-wing parties and trade unions lent their support to the rally, with some accusing the regional government of cronyism, particularly on the ties between Madrid's president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and the Quirón Group, a private healthcare provider. Demonstrators called for a shift toward preventative care and greater accessibility to high-quality public health services.

Norway: Hosts secret command centre
On 22 May, the BBC reported that Norway is hosting a secret command centre, carved into a Norwegian mountain. According to the report, this centre serves as a strategic hub for coordinating military operations against Russia in the Arctic region. NATO allies, led by Norway, have been conducting military drills in Arctic waters. 

Norway: Mark Rutte’s visit to Norway’s High North 
On 22 May, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Northern Norway. Rutte met Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Minister of Foreign Affairs Espen Barth Eide, and Minister of Defence Tore Sandvik. During the visit, Rutte observed a demonstration of NATO’s multidomain capabilities in the High North region. He emphasised the strategic significance of the High North and praised Norway’s leadership in the region. Rutte highlighted the importance of coordination among the seven NATO countries with territory in the High North. Rutte underscored the need for increased defence spending among allies to address threats from Russia, China’s military build-up, and terrorism. He advocated for investments above two per cent of the GDP. 

Finland: Military presence in Rovajärvi threatens the habitat of reindeer
On 26 May, Eurasantimes reported on the concerns of Finland’s reindeer herders over the growing military presence in the Arctic following Finland’s accession to NATO. The military activities in Europe’s largest artillery practice range in Rovajärvi have disrupted the natural environment, threatening the habitat of the reindeer. Finland has 4,305 reindeer farmers and around 184,000 reindeer, living in 57 reindeer husbandry districts. Some belong to the indigenous Sami population and some to the non-Sami population. Military drills and noise have been disturbing the traditional grazing routes and practices. 

The UK: Tensions with Iran over national security concerns
On 19 May, the UK and Iran summoned each other’s diplomats in London and Tehran after the former charged three Iranian nationals under the National Security Act 2023 in a counter-terrorism investigation. The men are accused of assisting the suspected Iranian intelligence service between August 2024 and February 2025. Iran called it “false claims” and demanded an explanation. The UK Foreign Office stated: "The UK Government is clear that protecting national security remains our top priority and Iran must be held accountable for its action.” In May, four Iranians were arrested in a separate case under the same allegations.

Russia: Deploys Tu-95MS bombers in Olenya airbase in the Arctic
On 19 May, the Bulgarianmilitary.com reported that Russia sent two additional Tu-95MS strategic bombers to the Olenya airbase in the Arctic. The airbase currently hosts five Tu-95MS bombers, five An-12 transport aircraft and 38 Tu-22M3 bombers. The Tu-95MS bomber has nuclear capability and can carry long-range cruise missiles. The aircraft has upgraded avionics and weapons systems, extending its operational lifespan and effectiveness. The airbase is situated 1,800 kilometres north of Ukraine and 150 kilometres from Finland.

The Netherlands: Thousands protest against Israel’s activities in Gaza
On 19 May, thousands marched in the Hague, calling themselves the Red-clad protesters, demanding government action over Israel’s activities in Gaza. The protests were organised by several human rights groups, including Amnesty International, Médecins Sans Frontières, Save the Children, Pax, Oxfam Novib, The Rights Forum and Plant een Olijfboom. According to Amnesty International’s Marjon Rozema, the protestors called for an end to the Dutch government’s support for Israel. He stated: “We are calling on the Dutch government: stop political, economic and military support to Israel as long as it blocks access to aid supplies and while it is guilty of genocide, war crimes and structural human rights violations in Gaza and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.”

The US: Federal judge pauses Oklahoma immigration law
On 20 May, a US federal judge temporarily blocked the usage of an Oklahoma immigration law, HB 4156, which criminalises non-citizens' illegal entry into the state. Oklahoma District Judge Bernard Jones ruled that the law likely violates the federal government’s authority over immigration and temporarily paused it for 14 days. A longer injunction will be considered in early June. The case, led by the American Civil Liberties Union on behalf of local organisation Padres Unidos de Tulsa and individual plaintiffs, celebrated this as a win for Oklahoma’s immigrant community. It called the decision a key step toward permanently blocking the law. Meanwhile, critics condemned the ruling as “outrageous,” arguing it disrupts the state’s efforts to fight drug trafficking and criminal activities. 

The US: Judge warns US deportations to South Sudan may breach court order
On 20 May, a US federal judge warned the administration regarding the violation of a court order against deporting migrants to South Sudan. This came after immigration attorneys reported that a flight carrying about a dozen individuals, some reportedly from Myanmar and Vietnam, had landed in South Sudan. Judge Brian Murphy had previously ordered that migrants cannot be deported to a third country without a "meaningful opportunity" to challenge the deportation. In an emergency appeal, attorneys from the National Immigration Litigation Alliance urged the court to intervene. The judge mandated that those deported remain in US custody and be "treated humanely" until the hearing scheduled for 21 May. 

The US: Supreme Court blocks Trump’s use of Alien Enemies Act for migrant deportations
On 16 May, Al Jazeera reported that the US Supreme Court granted an emergency petition, blocking the Trump administration’s attempt to use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 for expedited deportations. The case relieved two Venezuelan migrants in Texas. It reaffirmed that migrants are entitled to due process before removal, emphasising a fair hearing. The ruling stated: “We have long held that ‘no person shall be’ removed from the United States ‘without opportunity, at some time, to be heard.” This marks another legal setback for Trump's immigration agenda. The administration accused the two Venezuelans involved in the case of affiliation with the Tren de Aragua gang and stated undocumented migration as an “invasion,” invoking the centuries-old wartime law, which has only been used three times in US history and solely during declared war situations.  

About the authors
Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad. Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Fleur Elizebeth Philip is a Research Assistant at NIAS.  Merin Treesa Alex, R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah are postgraduate students from Stella Maris College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu S and Lekshmi M K are postgraduate students at Madras Christian College, Chennai. Farhaz Rashid Ahmed is an undergraduate student at St Joseph's University, Bangalore. 

Print Bookmark

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn