NIAS Area Studies


PAKISTAN READER

Photo Source: The New York Times
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1724, 19 June 2025
Conflict Weekly
Conflict Weekly #286

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286, 19 June 2025, Vol.6, Nos. 25
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Aparna A Nair and Kumari Gargi

The Middle East: Iran-Israel Strikes and Counter-Strikes
Aparna A Nair
 
In the news
On 13 June, Israel launched air and drone assaults on Iran. It targeted over one hundred military and nuclear sites, including facilities in Natanz, Arak, Isfahan, and around Tehran. The strike killed key figures, including Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps head Major General Hossein Salami, Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri, former national security chief Ali Shamkhani and top nuclear scientists. 

On the same day, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the operations “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat." Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, said the strikes on Iran were an "act of national preservation.” 

On the same day, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, accused the US of being complicit “beyond doubt.”

On 14 June, Iran responded with a coordinated barrage of over 100 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israeli territory. Israeli missile defence systems intercepted the vast majority. Several missiles struck urban areas and injured dozens. Israel responded immediately with airstrikes. President Netanyahu issued a stark warning: "Tehran will burn."

On 15 June, the fire exchange continued. The Israeli military issued a warning and asked people living near weapon facilities to evacuate. Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, said: "The Israeli military will strike these sites and will continue to peel away the Iranian snake’s skin in Tehran and everywhere — targeting nuclear capabilities and weapons systems."

On 16 June, Iran struck Tel Aviv and Haifa. In response, Netanyahu declared: “Tehran will pay the price and soon.” Israel fighter jets retaliated by targeting Iran’s aircraft on the ground and key command centres of the IRGC. The G7 leaders in a joint statement affirmed that Israel has the right to defend itself and reiterated their support for Israel’s security. The statement highlighted that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

On 17 June, President Trump stated that he wanted “not a ceasefire, a real end” to the ongoing conflict.

On 18 June, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejected Trump’s calls for “unconditional ceasefire,” and stated that any US intervention would cause “irreparable damage.”

On 19 June, Iran’s missile aimed at an Israeli military site hit the Soroka medical centre. Israel attacked Iran’s heavy water reactor at Arak and the Natanz facility. Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, stated the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader as one of the goals.

Issues at large
First, a background to Israel-Iran hostilities. The crisis is the culmination of over four decades of hostilities between Iran and Israel. Before 1979, Iran had cooperative relations with Israel. However, following the Iranian Revolution, the new regime labelled Israel as a “Zionist enemy” and made its destruction a central part of its foreign policy. In response, Israel adopted a policy, the Begin Doctrine, to carry out a preemptive strike against any state in the region that develops nuclear weapons. It struck Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria’s Al-Kibar reactor in 2007. The same framework has been used for the current actions against Iran. Meanwhile, Israel’s recent operations against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthis in Yemen took down Iran’s network of proxies across the region, weakening Iran’s leverage in the region. These proxies were used to serve Iran’s strategic interests.

Second, Israel and Iran’s nuclear programs. For long, Israel’s primary goal in Iran has been to degrade or destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities; it considers Iran’s nuclear programme as an existential threat. Keeping Iran’s support for the proxies in Lebanon and Yemen as a background, Israel has used the latest IAEA report on Iran’s breach of nuclear non-proliferation obligations as a trigger. An additional point to justify its support is the US-Iran nuclear negotiations that have not been successful. The report stated that Iran has amassed around 400 kilograms of uranium, enriched to 60 per cent, beyond the level needed for civil atomic purposes. Iran failed to provide a credible explanation. For Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat, it was unacceptable.

Third, the US open and tacit support for Israel’s approach towards Iran. The US has always been a strong supporter of Israel’s position on Iran in the past. Under Trump and Netanyahu, despite minor irritants, there has been a larger American support at the global level (at the United Nations for example), and at the regional level (in the Middle East, in terms of pressurizing the American friends). Both are crucial for Israel. Equally important for Israel is the US policy and strategies towards Iran. Since 1979, the US approach towards Iran has remained uniform; the only big difference has been the nuclear negotiations and the signing of the JCPOA, which also seems to be in tatters.
 
In perspective
Iran’s leadership is under pressure, internationally, to surrender and abandon nuclear enrichment, and domestically, over heavy civilian and military losses. Additionally, its “axis of resistance” is currently weak and fractured. There is silence from the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan.

The UK, France, Germany, and the EU are pushing for a diplomatic solution. However, the trajectory of the war will depend on the US stance, which Trump has yet to make. If the US aids Israel in the war, it would escalate the risk of an all-out war in the region. 

FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots and early warnings on acute food insecurity outlook: Four takeaways
Kumari Gargi
 
On 16 June, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) published the “Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity June to October 2025 outlook.” The report classified countries into three categories: highest concerns, very high concerns, and hotspots. The report highlighted 13 countries as the hunger hotspots. They are: Mali, Haiti, Sudan, South Sudan, Palestine, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen, Myanmar, Somalia, Chad, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Burkina Faso.

World Food Programme Executive Director, Cindy McCain, said: This report is a red alert. We know exactly where hunger is rising, and we know who is at risk.” 

The report includes an emphasis on early proactive measures to “save lives, reduce food gaps, protect assets,” and country-specific recommendations for immediate measures to mitigate the upcoming crisis, including anticipatory actions with early warning and emergency response.

The following are the major takeaways of the report.

1. Armed violence is a prominent cause that has led to food insecurity
The report highlights the connection between armed violence and food insecurity. 12 out of the 13 hotspots face armed violence that led to food insecurity, including the civil-war-induced famine-like conditions in Sudan, and gang violence in Haiti.  The report refers to a 25 per cent increase in conflict in 2024 compared to 2023, and early 2025 data suggest a rise in violence. Armed conflicts are causing forced displacement and economic disruptions, playing an indirect role in food insecurity. They have destroyed key infrastructure, including seaports and storage facilities, which has significantly affected food distribution. Armed violence is hindering agricultural activity and driving up the cost of essential household items, thereby contributing to inflation.

2. Extreme weather conditions are affecting food insecurity
The study highlighted that severe weather conditions, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, cyclones, and erratic rainfall, played a significant role in exacerbating severe food insecurity. It affected agriculture, industrial facilities, and critical infrastructure, leading to the displacement of communities. It additionally increased the risk of the spread of many diseases. With armed conflict and an unstable economy, the extreme weather conditions make the reach of humanitarian assistance complex. 

3. Lack of funding is compounding the situation
The fund granted is not proportional to the demands. The affirmed amount is USD 12.2 billion for food security and USD 2.6 billion for nutrition, but only nine per cent and four per cent, respectively, have been received. Moreover, there has been a decline in the grant of funds. In 2023, it decreased by seven per cent, and in 2025, by 13 per cent. The four major countries, particularly the US, account for half of the donations. Trump’s 90-day freeze on funds, around USD 1.3 billion, severely impacted the food aid programme. WFP chief Cindy McCain said that reduction of funds "will deepen hunger, fuel instability, and make the world far less safe." The Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC) financing analysis indicated a 45 per cent decline in funds. 

4. Limited data has placed ten countries under the close monitoring category
The report specifies that several other countries require close monitoring. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Colombia, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Cameroon, and Guinea are under this category. These countries were categorised among those requiring close monitoring amidst inadequate data and limited evidence supporting food insecurity. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashre Ananfhan, Femy Francis, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, R Preetha, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Kejia Reddy, Farhaz Rashid Ahmed, Rizwana Banu S, Santhiya M and Merin Treesa Alex 

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Beijing drops tariffs on 53 African countries
On 12 June, the BBC reported that following a China-Africa cooperation meeting, China announced its willingness to drop tariffs on imports from 53 African countries. China imports a large amount of raw materials from Africa, especially from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea. China has been Africa's largest trading partner for the past 15 years. Africa’s exports to China were worth around USD 170 billion in 2023. The joint ministerial statement denounced "certain countries' [efforts to] disrupt the existing international economic and trade order" through the unilateral imposition of tariffs and called on the US to resolve the trade issues under “equality, respect and mutual benefit.”

Taiwan: Chinese national detained for damaging an undersea cable
On 13 June, the BBC reported that a Chinese national was sentenced to three years in prison for damaging an undersea cable between Taiwan and the Penghu Islands. The detainee was the captain of a Togolese vessel, Hong Tai 58. It marked Taiwan's first sentence in such a case. Authorities suspect deliberate sabotage, part of Beijing’s “grey zone” tactics, although China denied involvement. In February, Taiwan’s Coast Guard detected the vessel lingering near the southern coast. Minutes after it left, a cable was found severed. Investigations revealed the ship dragged its anchor over the cable’s path, contradicting the claim of accidental damage due to rough seas. Between 2019 and 2023, Taiwan recorded 36 similar cable disruptions. Taiwan’s Deputy Digital Minister, Herming Chiueh, warned that cutting cables could spark wider conflict, underscoring the strategic importance of undersea communications infrastructure.

China’s nuclear arsenal growing faster than any other country, reports SIPRI
On 16 June, a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated that China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country. According to the report, China has included 100 more warheads to its nuclear stockpile each year since 2023. SIPRI Associate Senior Fellow Hans Kristensen said: “There could be several factors behind the rapid warhead build-up, including President Xi Jinping’s call that China must be a world-class military power by the middle of the century.” The report further stated that China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force could match that of Russia and the US in a decade.

Taiwan: China’s Huawei and SMIC in trade blacklist
On 16 June, CNBC reported that Taiwan has added China’s tech giants, Huawei and SMIC, to its trade blacklist. The move places the firms and their subsidiaries under Taiwan’s “Strategic High-Tech Commodities Entity List,” requiring licenses for Taiwanese exports to these entities. Taiwan’s International Trade Administration cited national security and arms proliferation concerns behind the blacklisting. Huawei and SMIC are already subject to US restrictions regarding their advanced chip technologies. In 2023, TSMC was linked to Huawei’s AI chip supply, prompting a US Department of Commerce crackdown. Due to which TSMC had to pay a USD one billion penalty.

Cambodia: UNODC releases report on organised crime and cybercrime
On 18 June, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) released a report on their findings on organised crime, cybercrime, and online scam operations worldwide. They concluded that, under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Manet in Cambodia, there has been an increase in organised crime. Profits made from these crime compounds are reportedly received by political elites. Their report includes a map of global scam centres, along with the scale and the geography of the activities. The map compiled by the UNODC found multiple scam hubs at the Thai-Cambodian border. According to the report, Cambodia is currently the leading hotspot for cybercrimes.

South Asia
Pakistan: Five terrorists alleged to be members of an “Indian-proxy” group killed in KP
On 16 June, The Express Tribune reported that Pakistan’s security forces killed five terrorists belonging to an alleged Indian proxy group, Fitna al Khawaraij, in two separate intelligence-based operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sanitisation operations have been launched in North Waziristan and the Peshawar districts to eliminate any remaining threats. Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari said that the operations will continue until the elimination of terrorism from the country. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said: “Anti-human terrorists will have to pay a heavy price for endangering the lives and property of innocent people.”

Pakistan: Bilawal Bhutto highlights challenges posed by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty
On 17 June, The Express Tribune reported that the Pakistani delegation, led by former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, concluded its Brussels tour. The tour was aimed at securing international support in preventing escalation between India and Pakistan, particularly from the EU. The delegation pushed for a dialogue and counter-terrorism cooperation with India, and it has emphasised the danger of a nuclear conflict. Bilawal highlighted the challenges posed due to the suspension of India’s Indus Waters Treaty, and he added that “Europe, as a champion of international law, must help us de-escalate this situation.”

Pakistan: Prime Minister Sharif backs Iran, calls out Israel for “unprovoked and unjustified aggression”
On 14 June, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif spoke to Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian. Sharif affirmed support to Tehran and termed Israel’s actions as “unprovoked and unjustified aggression.” He denounced the assaults on Iran, calling them a violation of the UN charter and international law. Pezeshkian expressed gratitude to Sharif for backing Iran, especially in the UN Security Council.

The Middle East and Africa
DRC: UN-led talks with M23 rebels in Goma
On 14 June, the BBC reported that the UN peacekeeping mission in DR Congo held talks with Rwanda-backed M23.  The talks focused on civilian protection in the areas under the control of the rebels. The UN Secretary General's special representative, Bintou Keita, said that the rebels spoke of wanting a peaceful solution to the crisis. She added that the talks have brought “a spirit of listening and exchange” towards resolving the conflict.

Kenya: Violent protests over blogger's custodial death
On 17 June, Al Jazeera reported the death of a protester in a police firing in Kenya. Protests across the country were triggered by the death of a 31-year-old teacher and blogger, Albert Ojwang, under police custody. However, it turned violent when the police used tear gas to contain it. The protesters held placards saying: “Stop killing us.” The protests against police violence have been recurring in Kenya recently. 60 people were killed by the security forces in 2024 during the June protests. According to the Independent Policing Oversight Authority, more than 20 people died in police custody in the past four months.

Europe and the Americas
Ukraine: Receives 6000 bodies of fallen soldiers from Russia
On 16 June, the BBC reported that Ukraine and Russia completed their final stage of the exchange of bodies of fallen soldiers. Ukraine's Interior Minister, Ihor Klymenko, accused Russia of “deliberately complicating” the identities of the bodies, and said that the bodies remain disfigured, with the body parts in different bags. On 15 June, The Moscow Times reported that Ukraine received 1200 bodies from Russia, as per the agreement reached in Istanbul. Both countries agreed to send 6000 bodies each. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that around 46,000 soldiers have been killed and 380,000 wounded in the war. Russian media outlet Mediazona and the BBC have identified around 111,000 dead Russian soldiers. 

Ukraine: Russian drone and missile attack in Kyiv kills 15 
On 17 June, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the aerial attack by Russia on Kyiv. It resulted in the death of 15 and the injury of 75. Zelenskyy reported on attacks across Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv. According to Zelenskyy, Russia used more than 440 drones and 32 missiles. 

Spain: Protests against overtourism
On 15 June, protests took place across major Spanish cities, including Barcelona and Palma de Mallorca, against overtourism. Protesters claimed that excessive tourism has caused increased housing costs, strained local resources, and disrupted daily life. Slogans such as “Tourists go home” and “Mallorca is not for sale” were displayed. Demonstrators urged the government to impose stricter regulations on short-term rentals and tourist accommodations. Residents expressed concern over the transformation of neighbourhoods into tourist zones. Activists demanded sustainable tourism policies that would prioritise residents' needs and preserve the environment.

Russia: Women from Africa recruited for drone assembly hubs, DW report
On 17 June, Deutsche Welle reported a study on African women coming to Russia for a better standard of living and employment, but being forced to make drones. The majority of women arrived in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, an industrial area in Tatarstan, Russia. According to a report drafted by the Global Initiatives against Transnational Organised Crime, many women were made to assemble cheap drones in poor conditions. One of the labourers said that the African women were exposed to highly dangerous and harmful chemicals without any protective gear. The Alabuga SEZ is a major factory hub for Gerean-2 drones, which are made similar to the Iranian Shahed 136. The SEZ was made to attract investments into Tartarstan. However, since the war, the facility has been used for drone production.

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Fleur Elizebeth Philip are Research Assistants at NIAS.  Merin Treesa Alex, R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah are postgraduate students from Stella Maris College, Chennai. Aparna A Nair, Kumari Gargi, Santhiya M, Rizwana Banu S and Lekshmi M K are postgraduate students at Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

Print Bookmark

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn