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CWA # 1826, 9 October 2025
Conflict Weekly
A Breakthrough in Gaza and Protests in Madagascar

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #301&302, 9 October  2025, Vol 6, No. 40 & 41
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Brighty Ann Sarah and Rizwana S Banu

Breakthrough in Gaza: 
Trump’s 20-Point Plan, A New Opening, and Its Challenges
Brighty Ann Sarah
 
In the news
On 10 October, Israel’s Parliament ratified a ceasefire with Hamas, paving the way to suspend hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours and free Israeli hostages held there within 72 hours. Further, the Israeli forces will partially withdraw to the "yellow line" retaining 53 per cent control, and 600 daily aid trucks will be allowed into the enclave.

On 9 October, President Trump stated that the deal agreed between Israel and Hamas marks the first steps toward a "strong, durable, and everlasting peace" that will end the two-year-old Gaza war.

On 8 October, Hamas released the list of missing hostages and prisoners to be released in the first phase of the 20-point plan

On 3 October, Hamas signalled partial agreement to Trump’s peace plan, accepting key terms including the release of all hostages as well as the handover of Gaza's administration to a technocratic Palestinian body. 

On 30 September, Prime Minister Netanyahu backed President Trump’s 20-point peace proposal for Gaza stating: "I support your plan to end the war in Gaza, which achieves our war aims.”  

Issues at large
First, Trump’s 20-point deal.  The plan envisions an initial phase of ceasefire and the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces, alongside the exchange of hostages. The second phase includes full IDF withdrawal, and Hamas demilitarization, and in the final phase, a technocratic governance replacing Hamas with PA involvement.  The plan was developed in consultation with leaders of Islamic countries on the sidelines of the 80th UN General Assembly session. 

Second, concessions by Israel and Hamas. Unlike previous failed negotiations, Israel is to suspend military operations in Gaza without a concrete deal and agreed to a comprehensive hostage exchange without demanding Hamas’s complete disarmament. Hamas, in turn, accepted a partial Israeli withdrawal instead of full de-occupation. Hamas also agreed to an “all for all” hostage exchange. Israel also had to roll back on its plans of eliminating the top brass of Hamas leadership and resort to negotiations. 

Third, the US-Arab coordination and the making of the Middle East actors a stakeholder. The Trump plan involved a steady consultation of the Arab countries, especially Qatar and Egypt and elevating them to key stakeholders. The active consultation of the Arab leaders on the sidelines of the UNGA session also highlights their centrality to the cause. The Arab coalition is also key to the post-war rebuilding of Gaza, with the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) led by Jordan and Egypt to secure borders and revitalise the Palestinian police forces. Additionally, Egypt is set to manage the departure and return of Palestinians and aid through the Rafah crossing. The post-war reconstruction of Gaza also envisions “modern miracle cities in the Middle East,” hinting at the developmental cooperation of countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In negotiating the implementation of the first phase, Qatar played a key role in pressuring Hamas leaders like Khalil al-Hayya for compliance. 

In perspective
First, challenges to lasting peace. Despite the execution of the first phase of the 20-point peace plan, challenges to future negotiations and the ultimate lasting peace remain. Israel and Hamas remain divided over key aspects of the peace plan- including the complete disarmament of Hamas and the dismantling of its structures, its exclusion from post-war governance, and most importantly, the larger question of Palestinian statehood. While the first phase has halted the military campaign and bought time for further negotiations, these factors could potentially derail the possibility of lasting peace.  

Second, for Palestine, the ceasefire and the 20-point peace plan offer the immediate reprieve from the dire humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region and the possibility of reconstruction under the supervision of the International Stabilisation Force. However, in the long run, the potential technocratic governance structure and the Board of Peace led by external actors, including the US and the Arab countries, question the possibility of Palestinian statehood. The peace plan also remains vague in its acceptance of a sovereign Palestinian state. Further, the internal contestation between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas complicates the prospect of a stable and coherent alternative. While the peace plan ensures Israel does not annex Gaza, it does not address the occupation and settlements in the West Bank, adding to the complexities of a viable Palestinian state. 

Third, for Israel, the Trump plan is a strategic recalibration both internationally and domestically. Israel has achieved its central demand for the release of all hostages, and the plan further offers the dissolution of Hamas. Despite the contention from the far-right bloc of Netanyahu’s coalition, the domestic support for the administration has been bolstered by the ceasefire and the imminent return of hostages. It also guarantees Israel a “security perimeter,” and the IDF’s handover of Gaza under favourable terms. However, the chance of a potential state of Palestine contradicts the major demands of Israel’s security doctrine, which can complicate future negotiations. 

Finally, for the region, the peace plan is an opportunity for united efforts in restoring regional stability. The US efforts and the peace plan could potentially bind US-Arab ties closer, evidenced by the severity of the US response to Israel’s attack on Doha. The deal also hints at the possibility of an Arab-Israeli normalisation. The dismantling of Hamas and the technocratic governance of Gaza is also an experimental opportunity for the region. 

Madagascar: Gen Z protest over socio-economic discontent
Rizwana S Banu
 
In the news
On 25 September, youth-led protests erupted in Madagascar’s capital, Antananarivo, over power outages and water shortages. At least five people were killed during the clashes with the security forces. 

On 26 September, the protests continued across various cities, including Antsirabe and Antsiranana. The government dismissed the Minister of Energy and Hydrocarbons, Olivier Jean Baptiste, citing failure to address the power issues. 

On 29 September, President Andry Rajoelina dissolved the government in response to escalating protests. However, the protests continued, with protesters demanding systemic reforms. The UN reported at least 22 deaths and over 100 injuries. 

On 1 October, despite the government's dissolution, protests intensified in Antananarivo and other regions. Security forces continued to use force to disperse crowds, leading to further casualties. The Presidency urged “calm and dialogue.” 

On 2 October, youth-led protests continued; protesters marched towards cities such as Toliara and Diego Suarez. 

Issues at large
First, socio-economic issues at the root. According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), Madagascar's youth unemployment rate stood at 5.39 per cent in 2024, three times higher than adult rates. This is one of the major reasons that angered the educated young generation. Meanwhile, the rising costs of living and limited access to essential services such as electricity and clean water intensified the grievances. According to Trading Economics, the inflation rate was reported at 8.4 per cent in June 2025, reflecting the economic instability. The UN noted that such inequalities served as structural triggers for unrest, particularly when the young population feels excluded from economic growth. 

Second, the nature of Gen-Z protest. The protests were carried out by the Gen-Z population, reflecting a shift in political engagement in the country. The Gen-Z population utilised social media platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok to organise protests, share narratives, and gain support. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) highlighted that “digital activism allows young people to amplify local struggles to a global audience.” The Gen Z participation also reflected a preference for decentralised and leaderless forms of mobilisation, similar to that of the Nepal protests earlier this year and the Kenyan protests in 2024. 

Third, bad governance. Corruption and lack of transparency have eroded trust in public institutions. Transparency International reported that governance deficits in Madagascar hinder effective service delivery and deepen inequality. The World Bank noted that inadequate governance and policy gaps have created socio-economic distress, contributing to cycles of unrest, with over 75 per cent of the population living below the poverty line in the country. Weak institutional frameworks and delayed policy responses to pressing issues contributed to public dissatisfaction. 

Fourth, the state’s response to the protests. The reliance on security measures such as arrests, dispersals, and the use of tear gas and rubber bullets reflected a harsh approach to dissent. Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned the government's response and said that such approaches tend to escalate tensions rather than resolve the crisis. The absence of open dialogue or effective communication channels worsened the situation. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has emphasised that “respect for peaceful assembly and dialogue is essential to resolving civic unrest.” 

In perspective
The protests were not only a reaction to immediate issues of power and water shortages, but also an expression of deeper frustration over long-standing economic issues. This approach contrasts with the traditional nature of protests that relied on formal organisational structures, enabling Gen-Z to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and reach a broader audience. The digital nature of this protest made their grievances more visible and harder to ignore, adding a new dimension to protests in Madagascar. Social media platforms enabled rapid mobilisation, real-time updates, and wider outreach. This represents a growing trend among young activists who are using digital tools to challenge bad governance. However, the dissolution of the government is unlikely to address the issues behind the protests. Without substantive reforms, the protest may continue for a long time. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, Rizwana Banu and Vaihali Chittrothu 

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Beijing providing intelligence to Russia, reports Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Agency
On 5 October, Reuters reported that China is providing Russia with intelligence to launch missiles inside Ukraine. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Agency informed that China was passing on satellite intelligence on targets, including those benefiting from foreign investment. They said: “There is evidence of a high level of cooperation between Russia and China in conducting satellite reconnaissance of the territory of Ukraine to identify and further explore strategic objects for targeting.” Ukraine’s President Zelensky has previously accused China of supporting Russia and its invasion efforts in Ukraine.

China: Zambian farmers sue Chinese firm over toxic acid spill
On 6 October, SCMP reported on Zambian farmers suing two Chinese mining companies of USD 80 billion lawsuit, over a major toxic acid spill. This has become a major problem in China and Zambia's long-standing friendship. The lawsuit filed by 176 Zambians against Sino-Metals Leach Zambia and NFC Africa Mining – two local subsidiaries of state-owned Chinese firms – alleges that a tailings dam wall collapse in February released acidic waste into streams, rivers and farms near the town of Kitwe, about 285km (180 miles) north of the capital Lusaka, reports SCMP. The farmers call this an economic catastrophe, which violated their constitutional rights and destroyed their habitat and livelihood. They demand USD 80 billion in an escrow account and a monthly payment of USD 336 per month for the cost of temporary relocation.

China: Uncrewed drone testing in the South China Sea, reports Navalnews
On 24 September, Navalnews reported that China tested its underwater drones, which are 40 meters long, bigger than the US Navy Orca XLUUV. The two uncrewed submarines are being tested in the waters of Hainan in the South China Sea. They are temporarily based in Gangmen Harbour, west of the main naval base at Sanya, where China’s nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers and other uncrewed vehicles have been observed.

South Korea and Japan: Prime Minister Ishiba visits Seoul and discusses denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula
On 30 September, at the invitation of South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung, Japan's outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visited Seoul. South Korea's spokesperson said: "The two leaders shared the view that ... Korea and Japan, as neighbours and global cooperation partners with similar positions, should act together to address challenges," and added that both reaffirmed commitment to the "complete denuclearisation" of the Korean peninsula. Additionally, both agreed to continue discussion on common social issues such as low birth rates, ageing populations, balanced national growth and countermeasures for suicide.

Papua New Guinea and Australia: Port Moresby approves defence treaty with Canberra
On 2 October, Papua New Guinea’s cabinet approved the Pukpuk defence treaty with Australia, committing to come to the other’s aid if attacked. Under the agreement, up to 10,000 Papua New Guineans will be able to serve with the Australian Defence Force under dual arrangements. Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape said that the treaty reflects “the depth of trust, history, and shared future” between the two countries. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese welcomed the approval, calling it an elevation of the bilateral relationship into a formal alliance. The agreement requires ratification by both countries’ parliaments. The treaty is part of Australia’s broader effort to counter China’s growing security presence in the Pacific and follows a US-PNG defence pact signed in 2023.

Myanmar: Rakhine state faces an alarming hunger crisis, says WFP
On 1 October, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) warned that Myanmar’s war-torn Rakhine state is facing an “alarming” hunger crisis as over 16 million people face acute food shortage. WFP’s country representative Michael Dunford said: “This is obviously contributing to the spike in hunger that we are seeing… we know there are populations that require our support.” Aid workers reported that children are surviving on grass and leaves, and more than 100,000 are suffering from acute malnutrition. The crisis stems from a combination of conflict, military blockades and aid funding cuts. While the US and the UK pledged USD 96 million in support for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh at the UN conference in New York, aid convoys remain unable to move food beyond Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine state. This leaves hundreds of thousands trapped in worsening conditions.

Myanmar: Military strike kills 20 civilians at anti-coup festival in Sagaing
On 8 October, in Chaung-U township, Sagaing region, at least 20 civilians were killed on 6 October, when explosives were dropped by a motorised paraglider, also known as a paramotor. Local resistance groups, Amnesty International, and the shadow National Unity Government confirmed the toll, branding it "mass murder." According to Ko Thant, an information officer for the Chaung-U Township People's Defence Force, the military has used paramotors to bomb this area approximately six times before this latest incident. This marks the seventh such paramotor strike in the area since December 2024, amid escalating airstrikes, 1,134 in early 2025 alone, as the junta's civil war rages on.

South Asia
India: UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets Narendra Modi; UK agrees to supply missile systems
On 9 October, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both leaders expressed optimism about the India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) signed in July. Starmer said that the trade deal has resulted in a “6 billion pound boost in trade and investment,” highlighting that “it’s time to invest in the United Kingdom, invest in this relationship and invest in our shared future.” In response, Modi affirmed his confidence in both countries enhancing their trade in accordance with Vision 2035, emphasising that PM Starmer's visit, accompanied by the largest-ever trade mission, “reflects the new energy and broad vision” of the partnership between the UK and India. The joint statement released by both countries covered multiple areas of cooperation, including economic growth, technology and innovation, defence and security, climate and energy, education, culture, and people-to-people exchanges, and regional and multilateral cooperation. Further, it stated that the UK will provide India with an “initial supply of Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM) systems."

India: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visits Canberra; the two countries agree to boost maritime security and defence industry cooperation
On 9 October, during the two-day visit to Australia, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held talks with his Australian counterpart Richard Marles on further expanding bilateral strategic ties. The two leaders reviewed cooperation across cyber defence, maritime domains, and regional challenges, reaffirming the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Both countries have signed a pact for mutual submarine rescue operations, enhancing maritime security amid Indo-Pacific tensions. The leaders also pledged deeper ties in defence technology and industry, with India proposing to service Australian naval vessels in its shipyards. Marles said: "All of that is taking our high-level strategic alignment and taking this to a much deeper operational level." He emphasised that two defence forces would increase information sharing. Rajnath Singh wrote on X: “Had a productive meeting with Australia’s Deputy PM & Defence Minister. We reviewed the full spectrum of India-Australia defence cooperation, including defence industry, cyber defence, maritime security, and regional challenges.”

The Middle East and Africa
War in Gaza: Hamas and Israel agree to the first phase of the ceasefire plan 
On 8 October, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the proposed first phase of the ceasefire plan, including an exchange of captives. Making this announcement on Truth Social, he also confirmed that following the sign-off, all remaining Israeli hostages (48, out of which 20 are believed to be alive) will be released and Israel will withdraw to an agreed-upon ceasefire line. Hamas has also submitted a list of Palestinian prisoners that they want released. Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Majed al-Ansari confirmed the news on X. On 7 October, senior officials from Qatar, Turkiye, Egypt and the US had joined the delegations in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, where the negotiations for the implementation of Trump’s 20-point peace plan are taking place. 

Syria: Ceasefire announced between Syrian security forces and Kurdish fighters 
On 7 October, Al Jazeera reported that after the death of one person and injuries to several others in violence that broke out in Aleppo between the Syrian security forces and Kurdish fighters, the Syrian government had announced a ceasefire. The ceasefire was announced by Syria’s Minister of Defence, Murhaf Abu Qasra, who said that both sides had “agreed on a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts and military positions in northern and northeastern Syria.” The news was confirmed by the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi. According to the government-run news agency SANA, clashes had occurred following the SDF’s attack on checkpoints in the city. The SDF has denied the allegations and blamed the government of “violent aggression.” 

The War in Gaza: Netanyahu affirms Trump's 21-point peace plan to end the war in Gaza with an immediate ceasefire and hostage exchange; Trump warns Hamas of a “very sad end” if the group declines the proposal
On 30 September, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed President Trump’s 20-point peace proposal for Gaza that would end the war and require the return of all hostages, living and dead, within 72 hours of an immediate ceasefire. Netanyahu stated: "I support your plan to end the war in Gaza, which achieves our war aims. It will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas' military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.” According to the proposal, Gaza would be administered by a temporary “technocratic, apolitical” committee consisting of Palestinians and international experts, operating under the Board’s supervision. This body would be responsible for shaping policy and managing funds for Gaza’s reconstruction until the Palestinian Authority completes significant reforms. According to the plan, residents of Gaza will not be displaced, and the "New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbours.” The Palestinian Authority welcomed the proposal, and said that it “affirms its confidence in his ability to find a path toward peace." Mediators from Qatar and Egypt have shared the proposal with Hamas, which has been given four days to respond. Trump has warned of "a very sad end" if the group rejected the proposal.

The Foreign Ministers of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey affirmed their support for the plan, stating their intent to “engage positively and constructively with the United States and the parties toward finalising the agreement and ensuring its implementation, in a manner that ensures peace, security, and stability for the peoples of the region.” The EU stated that it is “ready to help it succeed. Israel has signed on to the plan. Hamas must now accept it without delay, starting with the immediate release of hostages.” Leaders of Germany, France, the UK, and Russia have positively affirmed the proposal. The UN spokesperson in Geneva stated that “we stand ready to support any peace plan with everything we can do, including the provision of humanitarian assistance.”

Iran: Over 400 Iranians to be deported after the deal with the US
On 30 September, the Iranian Foreign Ministry's Director General for Parliament Affairs, Hossein Noushabadi, said that the US was "planning to deport around 400 Iranians, most of whom entered the country illegally,” in line with the new anti-immigrant approach of the Trump administration. He said that in the first step, 120 Iranian deportees, who entered the US illegally through Mexico, will return to the country within “the next one or two days.” It is reported that a US-chartered flight has these deportees on board, taking off from Louisiana on the night of 29 September and arriving in Iran via Qatar on 30 September. This development comes after the Trump administration reached bilateral deportation agreements with numerous countries, including Panama and Costa Rica.

The War in Gaza: Italy and Greece request Israel to refrain from attacking the flotilla carrying aid; the Red Cross halts operations in Gaza
On 1 October, Italy and Greece called on Israel not to harm activists aboard an international flotilla attempting to deliver aid to Gaza. In a joint statement issued by the Foreign Ministers, they stated that "(We) are calling on the Israeli authorities to ensure the safety and security of the participants and to allow for all consular protection measures." The activists had rejected a compromise proposal from Rome and Athens to hand over aid to the Catholic Church to avoid confrontation with Israel. The flotilla members shared that a key part of their mission is to challenge and expose Israel's naval blockade on Gaza, reported Reuters. The International Committee of the Red Cross stated that it has been forced to temporarily suspend operations in Gaza City and relocate staff due to escalating hostilities. The organisation will continue its activities from its offices in Deir al-Balah and Rafah, which remain fully operational, it said in a statement.

Ethiopia: Eritrea accused of preparing a proxy war amidst Red Sea dispute
On 9 October, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of preparing for war in alliance with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), escalating tensions over Red Sea access. In a letter to the UN, Ethiopia’s foreign minister claimed Eritrea is backing armed groups in the Amhara region, including Fano militias. Eritrea has controlled the coastline since its independence in 1993. The dispute follows Ethiopia’s renewed push for Red Sea access and rising internal unrest. TPLF leader Debretsion rejected the claims as diversionary, while Eritrea dismissed Ethiopia’s rhetoric as “bizarre.” 

DR Congo: Ex-President Joseph Kabila sentenced to death in absentia for treason and war crimes
On 30 September, a military tribunal in the Democratic Republic of the Congo sentenced former President Joseph Kabila to death in absentia. He was convicted of treason, murder, torture, and support for the M23 rebel group, which has seized territory in eastern DRC. Kabila, who left the country in 2023, did not attend the trial and was unrepresented. 

DR Congo: Congo-Rwanda security measures to begin in October under US-facilitated accord
On 26 September, Reuters reported that the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda will initiate joint security measures in October as part of a peace agreement supported by US President Donald Trump. The accord, signed earlier in 2025, targets long-standing instability in eastern Congo, where armed groups, including M23 rebels, have operated. Officials in Kinshasa and Kigali view October as a pivotal moment to test regional cooperation and international backing, amid concerns over past failures to sustain peace efforts.

Morocco: Two people killed during anti-government protests 
On 1 October, two people were killed in Lqliaa, near Morocco’s Agadir, after police opened fire to prevent protesters from storming a police station. These are the first deaths reported since the youth-led protests against the Moroccan government began last week. Further, violence spread to regions such as Salé, Tangier, and Souss-Massa, where people hurled stones at police, looted shops, vandalised banks, and burned police vehicles. It is reported that a group called “GenZ 212” is organising these protests. The protests were triggered by public anger over the government's decision to invest in preparations for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, while neglecting widespread corruption and inadequate funding of education and healthcare.

Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: North Korea backs Russia; President Zelensky reports gains in Donetsk; EU questions US sanctions moves 
On 9 October, North Korea pledged full support for Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, signalling Pyongyang’s alignment with Moscow in its ongoing campaign. Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said its forces inflicted frontline losses on Russian troops in the Donetsk region, while Moscow mounted heavy defences. He added that Russian gasoline supplies may have fallen by one-fifth after strategic strikes on fuel infrastructure, increasing pressure on the Kremlin’s energy mobilisation. Amid these events, EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan reported that US President Donald Trump continues to keep Western allies uncertain about additional sanctions on Russia, complicating coordination among Kyiv’s supporters.

Ukraine: US seeks clarity over Ukraine's Tomahawk missile plan; Moscow warns escalation
On 7 October, US President Donald Trump said he would want to know how Ukraine plans to use Tomahawk missiles before offering full support, emphasising caution over the deployment of long-range weapons. The Kremlin also said it was awaiting clarity from Washington on reports that the US could supply Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. It also warned that such a move could further escalate tensions. Moscow questioned whether the US would provide targeting data or even operate the systems directly, reflecting rising unease. Meanwhile, Russia stated that a Ukrainian drone had crashed near a nuclear power plant in Voronezh, but caused no damage or casualties. 

Russia: Sabotage group launches surprise attacks 
On 6 October, Ukraine's commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported Russian sabotage groups operating inside Pokrovsk, launching surprise attacks and targeting key infrastructure. Ukrainian forces have tightened security and increased patrols in the region. He said: "The enemy is putting pressure on us (and) we are doing our best to repel them." He added: "At the moment, we are evenly matched." According to the report, Russia has targeted Pokrovsk for several months as it makes incremental gains in the east and south of Ukraine. 

Ukraine: UN nuclear head calls for action to restore Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
On 3 October, UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi urged both Moscow and Kyiv to show “political will” to restore external power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The plant, Europe’s largest, has been disconnected from Ukraine’s grid and is currently relying on emergency diesel generators, a temporary measure that poses serious nuclear safety risks if not resolved quickly.

The War in Ukraine: Russia slams the EU frozen asset plan as "crazy"; US expands intelligence aid to Ukraine 
On 2 October, the Kremlin stated that the US and NATO already supply Ukraine with intelligence regularly, downplaying reports of a major shift. On the same day, Moscow called an EU proposal to use frozen Russian assets as loans for Kyiv “crazy,” warning of retaliation if it proceeds. On 1 October, Washington decided to expand its support by providing Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, targeting energy infrastructure such as refineries, pipelines, and power plants.

The War in Ukraine: EU strengthens with "drone wall" defences against Moscow's drone threats
On 1 October, the European Union leaders convened in Copenhagen to discuss the establishment of a "drone wall" after recent airspace violations in Denmark and other EU countries. They debated deploying sensors, anti-drone systems, and troops to strengthen regional security. Several member states pledged support to Denmark, while some officials speculated on potential Russian involvement, which Moscow denied. The summit highlighted the EU’s concern over unmanned aircraft strikes that temporarily disrupted Danish airports and threatened civilian safety. Leaders assessed technical and strategic measures to detect, track, and neutralise drones effectively, aiming to prevent future violations. The discussions emphasised coordination among EU countries, intelligence sharing, and enhancing aerial surveillance systems. 

The US: Defence Secretary deploys 200 National Guards in Portland; Oregon sues President Trump for overstepping his authority by infringing on its sovereign power and law management
On 28 September, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth deployed 200 National Guard into Portland. Oregon responded by suing President Trump, the US Defence Secretary and the Homeland Security Secretary for infringing on Oregon's sovereignty and its law enforcement. On 27 September, President Trump deployed national guards to protect federal immigration facilities from "domestic terrorists,” wherein he authorised them to use "full force, if necessary.” On 27 September, the Oregon Governor said that there was no national security threat in Portland. Violent crime in Portland had dropped in the first six months of 2025, according to the data released by the Major Cities Chiefs Association in its Midyear Violent Crime Report. Homicides fell by 51 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Swati Sood is an undergraduate student at Vivekananda College, University of Delhi. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, St Ann's College for Women, Hyderabad.

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