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CWA # 1999, 6 March 2026
Conflict Weekly
The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly Focus Note
The US-Iran War, Week One:
Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty
Rohini Reenum

In the news
The US-Israel attacks
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched an extensive air and missile campaign against Iran. Code-named Operation Epic Fury (by the US) and Operation Roaring Lion (by Israel), the attacks killed the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family members. Several high-ranking officials including the Minister of Defense, Aziz Nasirzadeh and the IRGC Ground Forces Commander, Mohammad Pakpour were also killed.  A missile attack on a girls' school in Minab killed more than girls, mostly children. On 1 March, the Pentagon confirmed the killing of three US service members in retaliatory strikes on regional bases by Iran. On 3 March, Admiral Brad Cooper of US Central Command said that the US had struck nearly 2,000 targets in Iran.

On 4 March, US Defense Secretary, Peter Hegseth confirmed that a US submarine had sunk an Iranian warship in international waters off Sri Lanka’s coast, killing more than 80 sailors.

Iran’s response
On 28 February, Iran retaliated by launching approximately 170 ballistic missiles targeting Israel and US bases in the region, in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. On 1 March, Iran officially confirmed the death of the Supreme Leader and announced 40 days of mourning. On 2 March, Iran's IRGC announced the blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict expansion in Lebanon
On 1 March, Hezbollah launched a barrage of missiles and drones against Israel;  in response, Israel targeted Hezbollah strongholds in Dahieh, Beirut and southern Lebanon. Subsequently, mass displacement notices to more than 50 towns and villages in southern and eastern Lebanon were given by Israel. On 3 March, Israel launched a ground offensive in Southern Lebanon. On 4 March, Israel carried out renewed strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, while Hezbollah said it engaged Israeli soldiers in south Lebanon in combat.

Regional responses
On 3 March, Saudi Arabia condemned the Iranian attack on the US embassy in Riyadh. On the same day, Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry condemned an attack on the US embassy in the country, calling it “treacherous” and “a flagrant violation of all international norms and laws.” The UAE Defence Ministry confirmed that 186 missiles and 812 drones had been launched from Iran, killing three and injuring 68. Bahrain announced that it had destroyed 73 missiles and 91 drones. On 4 March, Turkiye announced that a ballistic ?missile fired by Iran was destroyed by NATO air and missile defence systems in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The target of the missile was not immediately clear.

Statements from the US and Iran
On 1 March, President Trump announced that the Iran war was initially “projected for four to five weeks”, adding that the US military has the “capability to go far longer than that.” On the same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian asserted that the killing of the Supreme Leader was a “declaration of war against Muslims.”

Issues at large
First, the end of the US-Iran nuclear talks.
The attacks on Iran began during negotiations between the US and Iran for a new nuclear deal. Despite three rounds of talks in early 2026 in Geneva and Muscat, no diplomatic resolution could be reached due to fundamentally irreconcilable demands on both sides. While Iran wanted the talks to be restricted to its nuclear program, the Trump administration insisted on a “comprehensive” deal that would include limits on Iran’s ballistic missile programme and the dismantling of Iranian proxy networks in the region, including Hezbollah and the Houthis. The breakdown of the talks provided the final push for the Israeli-US February attack.

Second, expanding American objectives.
The initial US demands were limited to curtailing Iran’s nuclear weapon pursuit and limiting its ballistic missile capabilities. However, the US  war objectives have expanded;  in his recent address, Trump outlined four military objectives: “preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, destroying its missile arsenal and production sites, degrading its proxy networks, and annihilating its navy—alongside a desired political outcome of regime change from within.”

Third, state of the war and regional conflagration.
While the US-Israeli attack on Iran was characterized by coordinated, high-precision strikes, Iran’s retaliation has been strategically diffuse and scattered. Rather than a symmetrical counter-attack, Iran has chosen to target regional bases. Tehran also perhaps aims to pressure the US allies in the region a strategy that would draw the entire region into the war and plunge it into an unpredictable instability.

Fourth, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait is a major transit point for global maritime trade; nearly 34 per cent of seaborne oil trade and 30 per cent of liquefied natural gas transits goes through it. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20 million barrels of oil, worth about USD 500 billion in annual global energy trade, passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2024. Major exporters that depend on this route include- Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Asian economic giants like India, China, Japan, and South Korea, receive nearly 70 per cent of their crude oil via this route.

Fifth, domestic responses in Iran and the US.
The killing of the supreme leader has stoked a civic polarisation within Iran, with reports from Reuters, Al Jazeera and The Guardian portraying a nation divided. While loyalists have held massive pro-government demonstrations, anti-regime citizens in other districts have been celebrating the strikes and chanting “Death to the Dictator.” Further, while the killing of the supreme leader and primary leadership has not led to a collapse of the government per se, the Interim Leadership Council is struggling to present a united front and immediately choose Khamenei's successor, as the IRGC has reportedly demanded. Similarly, in the US, the domestic response has been divided, primarily on the legality and the necessity of the War. On 4 March 4, the US Senate narrowly defeated a War Powers resolution that would have mandated a formal congressional authorization. While most Republicans supported President Trump, Democrats and a small group of Libertarian-leaning Republicans (led by Senator Rand Paul) argued that the administration lacks a clear “exit strategy” and has bypassed the Constitution. Recent polls from Reuters/Ipsos and CNN indicate that roughly 50-60 per cent of Americans disapprove of the operation, with many citing fears of another “endless war.” However, among Republican voters, approval remains high with nearly 80 per cent in favour of the war.

Sixth, a divided international response.
While traditional US allies like the UK, France, and Germany have refrained from participating in the strikes, they have expressed support for the removal of the nuclear threat. On the other hand, Spain has taken a hardline “No to War” stance, refusing to allow the US. aircraft to use its bases. Canada and several EU leaders have voiced concerns regarding the unilateral nature of the attack, deeming them “inconsistent with international law,” simultaneously condemning Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbors. Iran’s traditional allies, like Russia and China have condemned the US-Israeli attack in strongest terms. Countries like India, with significant energy stakes in the Middle East and a strategic partnership with the US and Israel, have tried to walk a diplomatic tightrope.

In perspective
The first week of the US-Iran War marked the definitive end of a decades-long “shadow war” between Israel and Iran and brought the US into a direct military conflict with Iran. Iran’s calibrated response has the US’s regional partners in the Middle East caught in the crossfire and ushered in a period of high-intensity, multi-domain and multi-party conflict in the Middle East.

As the US and Israel pursue the systematic degradation of Iranian military and governance assets, including warnings of a ground invasion, the orientation and timeline of this war are becoming increasingly difficult to predict.

Barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough or a sudden collapse of the Iranian security apparatus, the region appears to be headed towards a period of unpredictable, high-intensity instability that will likely redefine Middle Eastern geopolitics for the remainder of the decade and beyond.

 

Conflict Weekly Focus Note
The “Forgotten” South Sudan Conflict:
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
Akshath K

In the news
On 01 March, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said that dozens of civilians had been killed in northern South Sudan over the previous 48 hours. According to the mission, a group of unidentified armed youth attacked Abiemnom County headquarters in the Ruweng Administrative Area, near the border with Sudan.

On 03 March, Ruweng Administrative Area's Information Minister James Monyluak Mijok said that the death toll from the attack on the county headquarters had risen to 178. He alleged that the attack came from the neighbouring Unity state and was linked to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). The SPLA-IO denied any involvement and accused the government of politicising the violence.

Issues at large
First, the peace agreement and its challenges.
In 2013, two years after gaining independence, South Sudan descended into a civil war that lasted five years. While the conflict is rooted in deeper intercommunal tensions between the Dinka and Nuer communities, it took a political turn between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader, Riek Machar. A peace agreement, called the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS), was reached in Ethiopia, with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mediating talks. The agreement mandated a unity government, a national army comprising all warring factions, a new constitution and preparations for national elections in 2022. While a unity government was formed, the power-sharing arrangement was consistently strained, with incidents of intercommunal violence and clashes between government forces, ethnic militias and opposition groups taking place in several parts of the country. Implementation was slow and elections were postponed, creating animosity within the unity government, with the opposition SPLA-IO accusing the Kiir of consolidating power.

Second, a brief note on the actors.
The fighting is taking place between the South Sudan’s People’s Defence Forces, headed by President Salva Kiir, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO), the opposition party led by his long-time rival, First Vice President Riek Machar. Kiir has been president since 2011 and aims to consolidate power and fend off any threats to his rule, while Machar and his party want a share of the executive and the militias they support to be incorporated into the army under the security reforms. The UN has accused both of “systematically dismantling” the agreement multiple times.

Third, an uptick in violence over the last year.
The recent wave of violence can be traced back to the White Army’s attack on a military base in March 2025. Following the attack, the UN attempted to rescue government troops from the base before facing fire from the militia in an attack that left several troops dead. Since then, the violence has left more than 5100 people dead or injured, a 40 per cent increase over 2024, according to the UN. The UN also reported that since government and opposition forces launched attacks on residential areas in December, more than 280,000 people have fled their homes. 189 civilians have been killed in January alone, a 45 per cent increase over the previous month. Additionally, attacks on aid organisations and camps have also increased, with the latest incident involving 26 aid workers from Doctors Without Borders going missing following a government airstrike on a hospital in February. An attack on a World Food Programme (WFP) convoy in Upper Nile State in February also forced the UN to suspend food aid operations in the state.

Fourth, limited international attention.
The UN terms instability in South Sudan as the “forgotten conflict,” reflecting the lack of international attention. The UN has been calling for a return to the peace agreement and for the violence to stop. Despite its repeated warning that South Sudan is at risk of sliding back into a full-scale civil war, the international engagement has been limited, for two primary reasons. First, geopolitical priorities have shifted, with wars in Ukraine and Gaza gaining attention, and the escalating violence in neighbouring Sudan. Second, the limited economic leverage and strategic relevance of South Sudan could also be diverting attention elsewhere. Despite the US-UK-Norway joint statement last year, and meetings within the African Union and IGAD, the lack of robust enforcement mechanisms impedes their influence.

In perspective
First, the dangers of another civil war. The increase in violence over the last year and the arrest of opposition leaders, like Machar, risks conflict escalation. The presence of UN peacekeeping forces has not stopped the fighting.

Second, the humanitarian situation is set to get worse. According to INGO reports, around 25 per cent of South Sudan’s Gross National Income comes from international aid and over 70 per cent of the population relies on humanitarian assistance, with a vast majority of them being food insecure. The rising violence risks expanding displacement across the country and further exacerbating the country’s humanitarian crisis.

 

CW Column: The Ukraine War
The War in Ukraine:
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EU’s energy dependence
Padmashree Anandhan

In the news
War on the ground
On 01 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the next round of US-Russia Ukraine peace talks could depend on developments in the Middle East after US-Israeli strikes on Iran complicated the diplomatic arrangement. Zelenskyy supported the strikes, accusing Tehran of enabling Russia’s war through the supply of Shahed drones. While Russia condemned the strikes as an act of aggression and reaffirmed its partnership with Iran.

On 02 March, analysis by the Institute for the Study of War showed Russia fired more missiles at Ukraine in February than in any month since early 2023. It launched 288 missiles and over 5,000 long-range drones. On the same day, Belgium seized a tanker that is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”

On 3 March, The Guardian reported that Russia’s territorial advance slowed to its lowest rate in nearly two years, with Ukrainian forces achieving several localised gains along the southern frontline. Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal and military assets near Novorossiysk.

Moscow View
On 05 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attacking a Russian LNG carrier, although Ukraine did not confirm involvement. Ukrainian military claimed striking sites with drones in Russia’s Saratov region, forcing airport closures.

West View
On 04 March, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the US President Trump to increase pressure on Russia and insisted that Ukraine should not be forced into further territorial concessions. On the same day, Belgium confirmed that the seized Russian tanker would remain detained after inspectors discovered multiple violations linked to sanctions evasion.

Issues at large
First, a surge in long drone strikes and targets on energy and logistical infrastructure.
Compared with earlier weeks where Russian advances around key eastern hubs dominated developments, this week highlighted a surge in long-range strikes from both sides rather than major front-line breakthroughs. Russia significantly increased missile and drone attacks, targeting energy facilities, logistics infrastructure and civilian areas. At the same time, Ukrainian forces expanded deep-strike operations against Russian military and energy assets, including oil terminals and missile production sites. While Russia continues to exert gradual pressure in eastern Ukraine, the latest developments show the slowest territorial gains in almost two years.

Second, Ukraine’s defence adaptation continues with support from military lessons from the West.
The scale of Russian drone and missile attacks highlights the pressure on Ukraine’s air defence network, even as interceptions stay effective. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s vast experience with drone warfare is influencing NATO and Western defence programmes. The rapid deployment of the US low-cost combat drone system developed on Iranian Shahed drones reflects how lessons from the Ukraine battlefield are reforming international military innovation.

Third, the difference over Russian energy resistance continues within Europe.
Disputes within the EU over the Druzhba pipeline and continued reliance on Russian oil among some states (Hungary and Slovakia) reveal persistent structural divisions. Russia also stands to benefit from global energy volatility triggered by tensions in the Middle East, which could increase demand for Russian exports and provide additional resources for its war effort. Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has declined sharply but remains uneven across the continent. Before the 2022 invasion, Russia supplied roughly 45 to 48 per cent of the EU’s natural gas imports, but by 2025 this share had fallen to around 15 to 17 per cent. This is mainly due to Europe's diversification efforts, importing from Norway, the US, and Algeria.   However, the reduction has not been uniform. Hungary and Slovakia remain the EU’s most dependent countries, continuing to import Russian pipeline oil and gas through the Druzhba pipeline, while France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands remain major importers of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered by sea.

In perspective
The ground situation this week suggests fewer territorial advances and more sustained long-range strikes. Russia continues to add pressure in the Donetsk region while Ukrainian defensive resistance grows strong. War on the ground is therefore evolving into a prolonged fight for endurance and technological adaptation. In terms of Europe’s energy dependency, the EU’s REPowerEU strategy has been formalised to phase out Russian gas imports completely by 2027, compelling member states to submit diversification plans and reduce remaining contracts. However, persistent LNG purchases and pipeline exemptions for landlocked states demonstrate how energy security concerns and national interests continue to complicate Europe’s effort to cut off its energy relationship with Russia.


CW Column: Conflicts in Africa
Violence in South Sudan and the US sanctions on Rwanda
Anu Maria Joseph

In the News
1. South Sudan
On 03 March, the BBC reported that at least 178 people were killed in an attack in South Sudan's Ruweng region. Ruweng Administrative Area's Information Minister, James Mijok, said that the attack was carried out by the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) from the Unity state. Meanwhile, the SPLA-IO denied any involvement and accused the authorities of politicising the violence.

On the same day, the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said: "The mission has enhanced its protective posture and is working with the government of South Sudan to support urgent efforts to restore calm and safeguard affected communities." The development came after 27 February, when the UN'S investigative body warned risk of "a return to full-scale war" in South Sudan. The UN's Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan (CHRSS) reported that civilians were enduring severe abuses, including killings and "systematic" sexual violence, arbitrary detention, and forced displacement in many regions.

2. Democratic Republic of Congo
On 03 March, the US imposed sanctions on Rwanda's military and four of its top officials for providing "direct operational support" to the M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The US Department of the Treasury spokesperson stated: “M23, a US- and UN-sanctioned entity, is responsible for horrific human rights abuses, including summary executions and violence against civilians, including women and children. The continued backing from the RDF and its senior leadership has enabled M23 to capture DRC sovereign territory and continue these grave abuses."

On the same day, the Rwandan government spokesperson responded that the sanctions "unjustly" target Rwanda and “misrepresent the reality and distort the facts of the conflict." Meanwhile, the Congolese government welcomed the sanctions and described them as "a strong signal in support of respect" for its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Issues at large
1. South Sudan: Renewed tensions between political rivals, increasing violence and threats of another civil war
Renewed tensions in South Sudan began in September 2025 when the first vice president and the leader of SPLA/IO, Reik Machar, was charged with murder, treason and human rights atrocities. The charges were linked to his involvement in an attack by the White Army militia against the federal forces in March 2025 in Upper Nile state.

The ongoing tensions and clashes are linked to the power struggle between Machar and South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, which triggered a six-year civil war in 2013, which ended with a power-sharing agreement in 2018. The arrest of Machar and renewed tensions have resulted in multiple armed clashes in several parts of the country over the past months, with both sides blaming each other for breaking the 2018 agreement. The latest attack came after the attack by the federal forces on a hospital in Jonglei state during early February. In January, SPLA-IO-linked forces attacked and captured several areas in the state, including the capital, Bor. In December, the government restricted humanitarian access exclusively to the SPLA/IO-held region in Jonglei. President Kiir's government accuses Machar and his party of plotting a coup.  

The renewed tensions and violence are attributed to the failure in implementing the 2018 peace agreement. Both factions were never fully integrated and unified, reforms were delayed, and presidential elections were repeatedly postponed.

2. DR Congo: A protracted conflict amidst a challenged US-led peace deal
In December, US President Donald Trump mediated between the leaders of Rwanda and the DRC to sign a peace deal. The signing of the peace deal portrayed an image of an end to the conflict. However, the M23 violence and fighting have continued in eastern DRC on several fronts. During late December 2025, the rebel group captured the city of Uvira in South Kivu province. Although M23 pulled out of Uvira under US pressure, the group still controls Goma and Bukavu, the regional capitals of South and North Kivu.

The US and several international bodies, including the UN, have accused Rwanda of supporting M23 with evidence since the beginning of the conflict. For Rwanda, M23 has acted as a proxy to fight the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels along the Congolese border and to access mineral deposits in eastern DRC.

While the US-mediated peace deal was expected to lay the ground for an end to violence, the deal was criticised for many reasons. First, the deal lacked inclusivity; M23, the major actor in the conflict, was not a signatory to the agreement. Second, the deal displayed a transactional character when Trump involved the US's mineral interests in the bargaining and deviated from a genuine interest in resolving the conflict. Third, the deal discusses an end to hostilities, disarmament and disengagement of the rebel groups, and a regional economic integration. However, the deal does not discuss resolving the decades-long root causes behind the complex conflict in eastern DRC. Ultimately, the deal reflected a US geopolitical manoeuvre that served Trump's global peace pursuits. Finally, six months into the signing, the deal could not materialise any of its provisions on the ground and ended up being a peace deal without peace.

In perspective
In South Sudan, the frequent clashes signal a potential resumption of intense violence rather than isolated skirmishes. It implies increasing fears of a breakout of another civil war. Meanwhile, the political tensions also point to a breakdown of potential grounds for negotiation, making violence more likely.

In DR Congo, the US sanctions on Rwandan forces appear to be a punitive measure to compel Rwanda to comply with its commitments under the peace deal. However, Rwanda's allegations of "unjust" points to mistrust between the signatories of the peace deal, which is likely to strain the implementation of the peace deal. The move risks the potential sustainability of the peace deal and resumption of violence.


ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS.
Akshath K is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Padmashree Anandan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
Anu Maria Joseph was a Project Associate at NIAS.


Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week
Regional Roundups
Abhimanyu Solanki, Adwitiyo Das, Akshath K, Glynnis Winona Beschi, Lekshmi MK, Siddhi Haylur,  Tonica Sharon C, Vani Vaishnavi Jupudi, Yesasvi Koganti

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
Pakistan and Afghanistan: Cross-border fighting persists
On 02 March, France 24 reported that the Afghan Air Force launched drone attacks on several key Pakistani air bases, especially in Rawalpindi. The 12th Corps headquarters in Quetta, Khowizoo Camp in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Ghulni military bases and the Nur Khan airbase were some of the primary targets. The Taliban led Afghan government commented on social media via its defence ministry, stating that based on “preliminary assessments,” strikes on Pakistani bases have been largely successful and have caused “significant damage.” These developments follow up on the Pakistani Defence Minister claiming an “open war” between the two rival states.

On 03 March, Reuters reported that the ongoing cross-border fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan had entered its fifth day with no signs of either side withdrawing from the conflict. Though the intensity of the exchange has decreased compared to the initial days, both sides have added to the existing instability in the Middle East, especially amid the conflict with Iran. This exchange marks the most violent conflict between the two that share a 2,600-kilometre-long border with each other. Despite cordial ties in the past, neither
Islamabad nor Kabul have retreated from the exchange, while both sides accuse the other of killing civilians in alleged military attacks.

On 04 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan's PM, Shehbaz Sharif, held a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During which President Erdogan reaffirmed Turkiye’s support for Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, pledging to help re-establish the ceasefire through Turkiye-led initiatives. According to a post on X by the Turkish presidency, the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and regional and global issues. President Erdogan highlighted the importance of reactivating diplomacy in the wake of attacks on Iran. PM Sharif stated that he discussed with President Erdogan the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, further condemning Israel’s attack on Iran and the subsequent attacks on Gulf States. PM Sharif reiterated Pakistan’s solidarity with Iran and its readiness to support de-escalation efforts. According to Radio Pakistan, the two leaders stressed the need for maximum restraint to avoid further escalation of the situation.

Pakistan: Hundreds of flights to and from cancelled following airspace closure in West Asia
On 03 March, The Express Tribune reported that as the regional security crisis intensified, hundreds of flights were cancelled in Pakistan, hurting the overall economy. Thousands of passengers remain stranded, as more than 500 domestic and international flights have been cancelled over the past three days. In particular, the suspension of air cargo services halted the transport of various goods, including food items and other supplies.

Bangladesh: Security tightened in diplomatic area amid global concerns
On 02 March, Dhaka Tribune reported that Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said security has been strengthened in Dhaka’s diplomatic zone, including the United States Embassy in Dhaka, in view of the global situation. Speaking during a meeting with US Ambassador Brent T Christensen, he said additional forces, including Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), have been deployed and law enforcers placed on high alert. The two sides discussed security cooperation, counterterrorism, illegal migration, and implementation of the SPEAR and Electronic Nationality Verification ENV programs, with both expressing commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.

Bangladesh: Dhaka emphasises dialogue, trade and the Rohingya issue in talks with the US
On March 04, Dhaka Tribune reported that Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman called for an early resolution of ongoing Gulf conflicts through dialogue and diplomatic means during a meeting with visiting US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Paul Kapur in Dhaka. During the meeting at the foreign ministry, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening Bangladesh–United States bilateral relations, particularly in economic engagement, based on mutual respect and shared interests. Khalilur highlighted the government’s “Bangladesh First” policy under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, emphasising Dhaka’s strategy of maintaining strong ties with regional and global partners to advance national interests and shared prosperity. Kapur congratulated the new government following what he described as a peaceful general election and referred to US President Donald Trump’s congratulatory letter to the prime minister, expressing confidence in the continued growth of bilateral relations. He also stressed the importance of implementing the Reciprocal Trade Agreement to boost trade and investment. The discussions also covered the Middle East situation and the Rohingya crisis, with Bangladesh seeking sustained international support for a durable solution while urging restraint and diplomacy to prevent further regional instability.

Maldives: Government establishes Special Cabinet Committee amid tensions in the Middle East
On 02 March, The Sun reported that President Mohamed Muizzu, moved to create a Special Cabinet Committee on Middle East tensions. This was formed to coordinate and plan a national response to the escalating instability. The committee aims to monitor and respond to the crisis as required by developments. The committee comprises key ministries including foreign affairs, finance, economic development, defence and homeland security and transport. It seeks to implement joint measures to protect the interests of Maldivian citizens, overseas workers and also economic interests. The Maldivian economy relies on tourism, global trade routes, fuel prices and remittances.

Sri Lanka: Surge in queues at fuel stations, as public anxiety increases amidst tensions in the Middle East
On 03 March, the Daily Mirror reported a nationwide surge in queues at fuel stations, as the public became increasingly concerned about potential fuel shortages amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Motorists were reportedly lining up at petrol pumps, despite government reassurances that national stocks are ample until May 2026. The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation ( CPC) banned filling fuel into bottles and cans to prevent hoarding. The situation largely reflects apprehensions rooted in the 2022 fuel crisis which triggered mass protests and political upheaval.

Myanmar: Junta forms high-level Information warfare task force
On March 04, Mizzima reported that the Myanmar military junta has established a high-level 12-member task force to intensify information operations and counter-narratives against revolutionary forces and international media. Officially titled the “Information Sheet Publication and Counter-Information Dissemination Group,” the body was formed in late January 2026 to conduct psychological warfare against armed insurgent groups and refute unfavourable reports from independent outlets. According to the report, the group will publish morale-boosting content aimed at military personnel, their families, and civil servants, while disseminating key policy-related reports from state-run newspapers to embassies and military attaché offices. The task force is also expected to expand its presence on social media platforms to promote the junta’s narratives domestically and internationally, and to respond swiftly to criticism from organisations and media outlets opposed to military rule. Since mid-2025, the junta has additionally operated the Community Development Committee to mobilise public support and denounce revolutionary forces through coordinated propaganda efforts.

Middle East and Africa
Lebanon: Hezbollah opens fire on Israel; government calls for its disarmament, while Tel Aviv strikes back
On 02 March, Lebanon’s government made a statement regarding the military activities of Hezbollah after the group opened fire on Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s drone and rocket attack with heavy airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern Beirut suburbs and other parts of Lebanon, killing 31 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Hezbollah said its attack was to avenge “the pure blood” of Khamenei, who was killed in a bombing on Saturday. Israel declared its leader, Naim Qassem a “target for elimination.” Lebanon’s PM said the state rejected any military actions from Lebanese territory outside legitimate institutions and that war and peace decisions were exclusively its prerogative. The Lebanese government has called for “immediate prohibition” of Hezbollah’s security and military activities and the handover of its weapons to the state.

Oil price soars; air travel gets disrupted
On 02 March, media reports indicate a spike in oil prices and disruptions to air travel. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20 per cent of global oil flows, has pushed Brent crude up 10 per cent to USD 79 per barrel. Natural gas prices have surged by 25 per cent. The conflict, according to reports have also affected the aviation sector. Major transit hubs such as Dubai and Doha have remained closed for three consecutive days, leaving approximately 90,000 passengers stranded. More than 2,800 flights have been cancelled. Travel-related stocks have depreciated by up to 10 per cent. Since the US warns that strikes could last for weeks, travellers are to expect higher ticket prices and long delays with no clear end.

Kuwait: US fighter jets shot down in ‘friendly fire’ amid rising Iran tensions
On 02 March, three US jets were shot down in Al Jahra by Kuwaiti air defences in a friendly fire incident while participating in operations against Iran. All six crew members ejected safely and were taken to safety. A drone attack struck the American embassy compound in Kuwait, according to US officials. Several US bases and military facilities in the region have been attacked by Iran, prompting the militaries of the Gulf states to mobilise air defences to deter strikes.

Oil, Gas and Shipping: Prices increase, as the conflict surge; LNG tankers price increase by forty per cent
On 03 March, supertanker costs in the Middle East hit an all-time high of more than USD 400,000 as the US-Iran conflict intensified, with Iran warning that it would attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s attack on Gulf countries has prompted them to shut down the oil and gas facilities as a precautionary measure. The freight rates for LNG tankers jumped by more than 40 per cent and could rise above USD 100,000 this week. Atlantic rates rose by forty-three percent and Pacific rates rose by forty-five per cent. The disruption has caused oil and gas prices to spike and stock market indices to stumble. Crude oil prices could pass USD 100 per barrel, and US petrol could rise by twenty-five per cent. UK gas prices have doubled, surging by more than 46 per cent. The UK’s FTSE 100 index fell by 2.6 per cent, Germany’s Dax fell by 3.7 per cent, and France’s CAC-40 fell by 3 per cent.

Iran: Israel claims to have hit “security headquarters” in Tehran
On 04 March, the BBC reported that while Israel has launched attacks on the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, they are also claiming to have struck “security headquarters” across the Iranian capital of Tehran. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency added that at least 1,097 civilians have been killed in Iran ever since the conflict with the US-Israel began. The conflict is a follow-up to three rounds of failed talks between the USA and Iran about control over nuclear enrichment in Iran. These talks, led by US President Donald Trump, have now been likened to a “real estate transaction” by the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who also accused Trump of “bombing the negotiating table out of spite.”

Africa
South Sudan: Violence escalates as UN warns country at “dangerous point”
On 03 March, South Sudan faced an escalation in violence that has raised fears the country could slide back into a civil war. Fighting has intensified between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those associated with former Vice President Riek Machar. Parts of Jonglei state are among thr regions affected the most by this violence. 169 people were killed after armed youth fighters known as the White Army, along with allied militias, carried out a raid in Abiemnom county near the Sudan border. Over 1,000 civilians have sought shelter at a United Nations base, where they are being provided protection and medical assistance.  Following the suspension of Machar by President Kiir on the grounds of murder and treason, the political arrangement between the two is feared to collapse. Doctors Without Borders reported that operations have been disrupted by attacks on facilities and the disappearance of staff members. UN officials warn that South Sudan has reached a “dangerous point.” These developments threaten the 2018 peace agreement that ended the five-year civil war in South Sudan.

Europe and the Americas
Operation Epic Fury, Day 03: The US is hitting Iran "surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically," says the American Defence Secretary
On 02 March, addressing a news conference, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US did not start the war and was only responding to the Iranian threat. He also explained that the American objective in Iran is to target Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program, and also Iran’s navy. According to him, the US operations have a "clear, devastating, decisive mission: destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, no nukes." The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - Gen Dan Caine, warned that the US operations against Iran are in their early stages and said: "This work is just beginning and will continue."

US-Iran War, Day 04: US and Israel hit inside Iran; Missiles and drones strike the US embassy in Riyadh; Washington orders evacuation of non-emergency personnel from diplomatic missions, as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz
On 03 March, it marks the 4th day of the US - Israel and Iran war. The war has expanded across the Middle East region, leading to violence and economic disruption. Explosions were reported in Tehran and Bahrain, as US and Israeli air strikes hit the targets inside Iran and Iranian-aligned forces in Lebanon. In response, Iranian drones and missiles struck US diplomatic posts in the region, causing fire at the US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In response to escalating threats, Washington ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from diplomatic missions in Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan, expanding earlier precautionary measures across the Gulf. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Homuz which has spiked the cost of crude and transport across the world. Global stock markets fell due to disruptions in energy flows from the East. Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanhyu stated that the war could take “sometime” but would not stretch into years like previous Middle East wars. According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, 787 people have been killed across Iran, with the toll rising as bombing continues. Russia raised an alarm about fighting near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility, warning of potential risks.

US-Iran War, Day 05: NATO intercepts Tehran's missile over the Mediterranean, reports Turkey; Iranian warship sinks off Sri Lanka; Mourners gather in Tehran for the late supreme leader’s funeral
On 04 March, Turkey reported that NATO air defences destroyed a missile fired by Iran over the Mediterranean Sea. Turkish officials said the interception occurred after the missile crossed international airspace, prompting a coordinated response among alliance members. Separately, an Iranian warship was reported to have sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Authorities confirmed that 30 people on board an Iranian ship were rescued in an emergency operation in open waters. Sri Lanka’s foreign minister confirmed the rescue, underscoring the wider regional spillover effects of the ongoing war beyond direct military engagements. In Tehran, mourners gathered to bid farewell to Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a state funeral ceremony attended by thousands.

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IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

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