NIAS Area Studies


PAKISTAN READER

Photo Source: Times of Israel
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

The US-Iran War, Week Three

  Rohini Reenum

Conflict Weekly Note
In the news

US-Israeli offensive
Between 13 and 14 March, the US conducted strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, targeting military installations while sparing oil infrastructure. The US Central Command claimed to have targeted 90 military sites on the Island. On 14 March, a missile strike on an industrial site in the central Iranian city of Isfahan killed at least 15 people. On the same day, President Trump revealed that he has appealed to China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to join the US in securing the Strait of Hormuz. Later, he called on all “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait” to join the coalition, making a special mention of NATO. No countries have made any announcement so far regarding joining the coalition. On 15 March, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with further attacks on the Kharg Island if it continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

On 17 March, the Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, claimed that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Head, Ali Larijani, and commander of the Basij paramilitary forces, Gholamreza Soleimani, were killed in overnight strikes. On the following day, Iran confirmed their deaths, vowing revenge. On 18 March, President Trump criticised NATO allies and partners for failing to provide stronger military support in efforts to end Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars field, and Iran confirmed the killing of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib in an overnight attack by Israel.

Iran’s Response
Between 13 and 18 March, Iran continued to target US military bases across the Middle East, central Israel, and sporadic attacks in the Gulf countries.

On 18 March, there were multiple drone attacks in Iraq, including near the Baghdad airport and the US embassy in the Green Zone. On the same day, an Iraqi armed group claimed responsibility for 28 drone strikes across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan over the past 15 days. In response to the South Pars field attack, Iran's IRGC  launched attacks on several energy sites in the Gulf countries, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility, where authorities reported significant damage, and at the United Arab Emirates’ Habshan ?gas facility, where operations were suspended. Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, in an interview, said that “This is America’s war” and blamed the US for the regional escalation.

Following the killing of three senior leaders, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the “cowardly assassination” of his “dear colleagues” and added that their “path will continue stronger than before.”

Regional Responses
On 18 March, Al Jazeera reported that Saudi Arabia was hosting an emergency meeting of foreign ministers from Arab and Muslim countries in Riyadh to discuss Iranian retaliation. On the same day, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry made a strong statement following the Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan gas facility. The statement read “Qatar considers this assault a dangerous escalation, a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, and a direct threat to its national security.”

On 19 March, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declared that the “little trust” rebuilt with Iran over the last few years is now “completely shattered.” Farhan also warned that “The Kingdom and its partners possess significant capabilities, and the patience we have shown is not unlimited.”

Developments within the US
On 18 March, US National Counterterrorism Center director Joe Kent tendered his public resignation protesting the Iran War. In his statement, he claimed that “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Issues at large
1. The rapid multi-front escalation
In the third week, the war has significantly escalated across all fronts, with the killing of three key senior Iranian leaders, targeting of its strategic assets, such as the Kharg Island, and its biggest gas field. In retaliation, Tehran has also indiscriminately targeted energy reserves and infrastructure across the Gulf countries, expanding its targets dramatically. On the maritime front, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with Iran allowing only a few ships to pass per day based on the ship’s flagged state. With key mediators in the Middle East like Qatar and the UAE caught in the War’s crosshairs, a defiant Iran and an unwilling Trump, there naturally has been no talk of any ceasefire/peace negotiations. The only development on this front has been President Trump’s assurance that henceforth, Israel will not attack any of Tehran’s gas fields.

2. Pushback, yet reluctance of the Gulf countries to militarily retaliate
Following escalating Iranian aggression, the response from Gulf countries has shifted from defensive posturing to an active, coordinated pushback, stopping short of active military retaliation. For instance, Saudi Arabia issued warnings of military retaliation, and the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs labelled the attack on its gas field a “calculated act of economic terrorism.” Additionally, Qatar has also expelled key Iranian military and security officials along with their staff from its territory. Despite this hardening of their stance, the Gulf countries have maintained a policy of strategic non-retaliation, possibly for the fear of an all-out regional war, its long-term economic ramifications, and being viewed domestically as fighting an Israeli War. Non-retaliation also helps them maintain neutrality and secure international support.

3. Lack of support for the US-Israeli offensive
During the first two weeks, the US allies' lack of support for the Iran War was reflected in their measured statements. However, in the third week, with Trump’s direct appeals for joining the coalition rejected, traditional US allies have made their stance clearer. Further, there are signs of growing divergence of opinion among US allies in the Middle East as well. Interestingly, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi made a surprise statement in an Economist opinion stating that “the United States has lost control of its foreign policy and is involved in a war that is not its own.” This lack of support for the War at the home front was also reflected in the high-profile resignation of Trump’s counterterrorism aide, which not only reflected a difference of opinion but also put under scrutiny the pretext and rationale for starting the war itself.

4. Global economic fallouts
While the first two weeks of the War pushed oil prices past USD 100, the recent attacks on gas fields have triggered a significant global supply shock. Brent crude, which hovered around USD 70 before the war, has surged to USD 126 following the Ras Laffan attack. QatarEnergy confirmed that the strikes wiped out 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG capacity. Experts have warned that repairs could take 3 to 5 years, creating a long-term structural deficit in global gas supply. The Hormuz Blockade has also adversely impacted the global energy supply, which is currently falling 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) short of demand.

In perspective

With expanded targeting of energy reserves and infrastructure, the War has metamorphosed from an earlier precise decapacitation military campaign to a comprehensive energy war, threatening the global energy supply chain and immediate and future energy security. With the intensification of Iranian retaliation across the Middle East and consequent growing frustration among the Gulf countries, the region could very well be at the precipice of a total regional conflagration.

The successive killing of key Iranian leaders has also hardened Iran’s defiance and rhetoric, which views the Israeli-US offensive as an existential threat to the country. This makes negotiations difficult and only heightens the threat of miscalculation. Further, President Trump is also beginning to face the repercussions of starting a unilateral war, both from his allies and at home. Overall, the trajectory of this war is becoming difficult to predict, with its progression and expansion, and a lot will depend on who blinks first and calls for de-escalation.


Click here for recent and related publications:
Rohini ReenumThe US Iran War, Week Two: Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout,” Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026
Rohini Reenum
The US-Iran War, Week One: Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty,” Conflict Weekly #322, 06 March 2026

 

Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS.

Print Bookmark

August 2026 | CWA # 2241

Urja R Kudalkar | Urja R Kudalkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, RUAS, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Board of Peace Plan for Gaza:
August 2026 | CWA # 2235

Adwaith Sankar | Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

Southeast Asia (April-June 2026)
August 2026 | CWA # 2232

Dattesh D Parulekar | Dr Dattesh D. Parulekar is an Assistant Professor at the School of International and Area Studies, Goa University.

Latin America (Apr-Jun 2026):
August 2026 | CWA # 2226

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Colombia's ban on Female Genital Mutilation:
August 2026 | CWA # 2222

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar are postgraduate students at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences. They are currently Research interns at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)

Peru's new President Netanyahu's Washington visit
July 2026 | CWA # 2217

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar are postgraduate students at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences. They are currently Research interns at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)

The Berlin Pride attack
July 2026 | CWA # 2216

Manikranth Chakravarthula | Manikranth Chakravarthula is a doctoral student at the Conflict Resolution and Peace Research Programme, School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The Houthis:
July 2026 | CWA # 2213

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Bengaluru

The US-Iran War, Week 22:
July 2026 | CWA # 2211

Priyanka Makhijani | Priyanka Makhijani is a postgraduate student at the department of Public Policy, School of Social Science, Ramaiah University of Applied science. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

AI's Rogue Agent Breach:
July 2026 | CWA # 2210

Adwaith Sankar | Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

ASEAN Regional Forum:
July 2026 | CWA # 2209

Namrata L Ghanghatkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).

The return of US-Canada Tariff Tensions:
July 2026 | CWA # 2208

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Saudi Arabia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement:
July 2026 | CWA # 2204

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Houthis target Saudi Arabia:
July 2026 | CWA # 2203

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

US-Iran War, Week 21:
July 2026 | CWA # 2197

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran War, Week 20:
July 2026 | CWA # 2195

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a an internt at NIAS and also a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM | Dhivya K M is an intern at NIAS and is also a postgraduate student from the Department of Financial Economics, Madras School of Economics, Chennai.

The IMF World Economic Outlook: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

UNHCR Global Trends Report 2025: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Iran after Ali Khamenei
July 2026 | CWA # 2177

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

PM Takaichi's India visit: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2174

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. She is also an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru. 

The Israel-Lebanon Framework:
July 2026 | CWA # 2172

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran negotiations:
June 2026 | CWA # 2164

Shreya Upadhyay | Dr Shreya Upadhyay is an Assistant Professor at Christ (deemed to be) University, Bengaluru, and Fellow, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.

The United States (April-June 2026)
June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran MoU
June 2026 | CWA # 2151

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel's Ultra-Orthodox Jews:
June 2026 | CWA # 2149

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran MoU:
June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H | Acsah H is a postgraduate student at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Institute of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, MAHE, Manipal, Udupi. She is currently a research intern at NIAS.

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion:
June 2026 | CWA # 2135

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026:
June 2026 | CWA # 2134

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies. Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Four Major Takeaways
June 2026 | CWA # 2132

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:
June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru

The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengalur

The Crisis in Cuba:
May 2026 | CWA # 2121

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East
May 2026 | CWA # 2116

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is currently pursuing undergraduate studies at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

India, the UAE, and PM Modi’s visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

What makes the UAE a global player?
May 2026 | CWA # 2112

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in international relations at Loyola College, Chennai. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Why does the Falkland Islands dispute keep recurring?
May 2026 | CWA # 2109

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2104

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East:
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

King Charles's US Visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur | Siddhi Halyur is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Public Policy and Journalism at St Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

UAE's Exit from OPEC:
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

US troop withdrawal from Germany:
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S | Dr Jenin Raj S is an Assistant Professor and Head of the Centre for Media, Department of Journalism, Mount Carmel College (Autonomous), Bengaluru.

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf, Postgraduate student, Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japans New Defence Posture:
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah | Ms Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and Assistant Editor of NIAS Conflict Weekly.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal | Mr Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS. He works on Pakistan and Africa.

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon | Dr Lakshmi Venugopal Menon is an academic and policy researcher specializing in Gulf studies, cultural heritage trafficking, geopolitics, migration, Afghan politics and the Taliban.

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

UK and China
February 2026 | CWA # 1957

Preetha Renganarayanan | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The India-US interim trade framework
February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan