PAKISTAN READER

Adarsh Vijay Adarsh Vijay is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.

India’s external relations in the first quarter of 2026 presented unprecedented challenges and opportunities. New Delhi demonstrated pragmatism, cautious engagements and strategic agility in its foreign engagements over the three months. India’s foreign policy was primarily focused on embracing BRICS leadership, navigating tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, managing continental ties with Europe, addressing the West Asian crisis, rebuilding ties with China, and manoeuvring South Asian instability. These major developments highlighted New Delhi’s adaptation vis-à-vis the new realities of multi-alignment, balancing Western partnerships, South-South cooperation, and absorbing the dynamics of the neighbourhood.

1. Balancing the relations with the US
On 6 February, India and the United States (US) issued a joint statement indicating the finalisation of a trade deal that aims to lower tariffs on India’s imports from 50 to 18 per cent. The deal, which was expected to be signed in March, is on hold after the US Supreme Court revoked President Trump’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs. An official delegation from India’s Ministry of Commerce, led by Darpan Jain, was scheduled to visit Washington in February to finalise the legal text of the deal. However, the visit is halted due to the tariff uncertainty resulting from the US Supreme Court’s intervention. The US also issued a 30-day waiver for India to purchase Russian oil loaded onto vessels before 5 March 2026. On 20 February, India joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative (launched in December 2025) to secure resilient supply chains for silicon-based technologies, particularly semiconductors, AI infrastructure, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing and energy.

2. Deepening the partnership with Europe
The chief guests for India’s 77th Republic Day celebrations on 26 January were Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council, respectively. The negotiations between India and the European Union (EU) for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), touted as the “Mother of all Deals,” concluded on 27 January at the 16th India-EU Summit. The Summit also endorsed “Towards 2030: Joint India-EU Strategic Agenda,” reinforcing strategic partnership across “prosperity and sustainability, technology and innovation, security and defence, connectivity and global issues.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was on a two-day visit to India from 12 to 13 January. It was his first Asian visit since he took over as Germany’s Federal Chancellor in 2025. An agreement to strengthen bilateral defence industrial cooperation with a focus on “co-production and co-development” was signed. India’s Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi indicated that New Delhi will launch a “consultation mechanism” amid increasing collaboration with Berlin in the Indo-Pacific region. In a bid to boost the people-to-people relations, a visa-free transit for Indian passport holders through Germany was announced.

3. Resetting ties with China
Against the backdrop of India’s Republic Day, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that India and China are “good neighbours, friends and partners.” The statement came at a time when both neighbours are resetting the ties since the 2020 clashes in eastern Ladakh. China’s Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu attended the first BRICS Sherpa Meeting under India’s chairship from 8 to 10 February in New Delhi. Parallelly, the first strategic dialogue was held on 10 February between India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and his Chinese counterpart Zhaoxu. It was deemed yet another step in the “gradual normalisation” of the bilateral relations. India has also announced plans to resume border trade with China via the Lipulekh pass in Uttarakhand this year.

4. Walking a tight balance in West Asia 
The US-Israel attacks on Iran have caused reverberations in India as well. India’s official statements have focused on urging restraint, avoiding escalation, and prioritising the safety of civilians. India has not officially condemned the US-Israel attack on Iran, for which India has been facing serious criticism. On the flip side, though not via public condemnations, New Delhi has denounced Iran’s attacks through United Nations (UN) resolutions and diplomatic statements. On 11 March, India co-sponsored a resolution by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), alongside 134 other states, calling on Iran to end attacks on GCC member states, including Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Reportedly, New Delhi also condemned the attack by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on Mayuree Naree, an India-bound Thai-flagged dry bulk vessel, in the Strait of Hormuz the same day. On 23 March, PM Modi addressed the Indian Parliament, calling for de-escalation and opposing attacks on civilians, energy and transport infrastructure.

5. Managing new challenges and opportunities in the Neighbourhood
Balendra Shah’s rise as Nepal’s PM, following his historic victory in the 5 March elections, brings new overtures in India’s Kathmandu policy. India and Nepal have launched a joint survey of their international border to mitigate encroachments and infiltrations. New Delhi and Kathmandu also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to promote bilateral cooperation in the domains of forests, wildlife, environment, biodiversity conservation, and climate change. Tarique Rahman’s decisive victory in the Bangladesh general elections on 12 February is also viewed as an opportunity to reset the bilateral ties. PM Modi had also invited Rahman to visit India. In response to the 19 March airstrikes by Pakistan on a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul, India delivered 2.5 tons of medical aid to Afghanistan. India also condemned the Pakistani airstrike as “barbaric” and “unconscionable.”

6. Taking over BRICS Presidency
India assumed the BRICS presidency on 1 January 2026 and will be hosting its 18th summit in September 2026. The theme for India’s chairship is “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability.” Thanks to the strikes on Iran by the United States (US) and Israel, India’s presidency of the grouping coincides with internal divisions within the bloc. Iran has been a member of BRICS since 2024. Some members, including Russia, China and Brazil, are in support of Iran, whereas Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have condemned it. Even Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has urged India (being the BRICS chair) to condemn the US-Israeli attack. 

To conclude: India’s External Relations in Jan-Mar 2026
This year’s first quarter presented India with complex foreign policy choices. As far as BRICS and the Iran “factor” are concerned, India has maintained a cautious stance, maintaining strategic silence and prioritising the safety of its diaspora and regional stability. The involvement of India’s multiple partners in the West Asian crisis complicates the situation and puts India’s chairship in a difficult position in ensuring South-South cooperation. Despite differences over issues such as the Ukraine war and Russia, India’s engagement with the US and Europe, particularly with Germany, further underscores the strategic need to balance its Western partnerships. The US’s waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil has also become a litmus test for India’s ties with Russia. India-China relations show new signs of thawing. The decision to restart the India-China border trade via the Lipulekh Pass has also raised concerns in Nepal. To Kathmandu, it is a disputed territory, and India has previously rejected Nepal’s claim to the region. Moreover, Shah’s leadership at Kathmandu is also expected to bring a new synergy to the Indo-Nepal interface beyond the traditional “roti-beti” relationship. The Indo-Bangladesh relations are expected to ease. Moreover, Indian aid to Afghanistan cements the duo’s historical ties and sends a strategic signal to Pakistan.

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