PAKISTAN READER

Global Politics Team

TWTW Note
US troop withdrawal from Germany: 
Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin

President Trump’s frustration reflects a broader transactional worldview that allies must contribute, not just comment.

Glynnis Winona B

What happened?
On 27 April, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated in Marsberg that Washington had been “humiliated” by the Iranian leadership. Merz urged a rapid end to the war as it was already impacting Germany’s economy. He further criticised the US campaign as “ill considered”, drawing comparisons with previous interventions.

On 28 April, Trump lashed out at Merz on social media, accusing him of suggesting that Iran having a nuclear weapon was acceptable. He went on to defend the war, arguing that other leaders should have taken such a step long ago.

On 30 April, the confrontation escalated further as Trump warned that the US was reviewing the possible reduction of its troops in Germany. He added that Merz should instead focus on the Russia–Ukraine war and address issues within his “broken country.”

On 01 May, the US Secretary of Defence ordered the withdrawal of approximately 5,000 troops from Germany, with the move expected to be completed over the next six to twelve months. Trump also indicated a potential withdrawal of troops from Italy and Spain due to their lack of support. An internal Pentagon document reportedly outlined options to further penalise NATO allies deemed insufficiently supportive of the war with Iran.

What is the background?
1. American military presence in Germany
Germany hosts one of the largest US military deployments overseas, with over 36,000 personnel stationed across major bases as of December 2025. Key installations include Ramstein Air Base and Landstuhl Regional Medical Centre. Established after World War II, this presence has long served a dual purpose: providing forward defence for Europe while extending US global military reach.

The US–Germany relationship remains central to NATO. Germany hosts critical command infrastructure while serving as a bridge between the US and Europe. This interdependence has helped the alliance sustain despite recurring tensions. Beyond troop deployments, cooperation extends to shared intelligence, joint exercises and long-standing interoperability.

2. Frictions between Trump and the German leaders
There is a history of differences between Trump and the German leadership. During Trump’s first term, he had a difference with Angela Merkel over defence and trade. Trump proposed troop reduction during his first term, which was later halted by Joe Biden in 2021. Chancellor Merz was initially seen as aligned with Trump, but differences emerged over the US war in Iran. Trump views the war as a decisive and necessary intervention to eliminate a nuclear threat, one that other presidents lacked the resolve to undertake.

3. Growing European criticism of  US-Iran policy
Germany’s concerns reflect a wider European unease. Trump’s response also reflects broader US criticism of Europe and the transatlantic partnership. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a spike in energy prices in Europe. The UK criticised the lack of a clear exit strategy, Spain refused to allow its bases to be used for military operations, and France raised concerns about limited diplomatic engagement. For most of the European leaders, the US launched the war without consulting most NATO allies. Merz’s remarks highlight a broader European concern, and Trump’s response reflects his larger cynicism towards Europe.

What does it mean?
First, a structural fracture in the transatlantic order. The US–Germany relationship has navigated disagreements before, over the Iraq War and energy policy, but these disputes were managed through diplomatic channels. The current rift, played out through social media exchanges and troop movements, suggests a qualitative shift in Washington's view of its European commitments.

Second, Trump’s frustration reflects a broader transactional worldview that allies must contribute, not just comment. Trump criticised NATO allies for not sending their navies to help open the Strait of Hormuz and stated he was “very disappointed.” With the war already costing at least USD 25 billion, Trump expects burden-sharing, not criticism. The troop withdrawal is less a military decision and more a political projection.

Third, Germany’s tough choices. Berlin cannot easily replace the security architecture provided by the American military presence, and its economy is already facing the costs of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Merz insists that Germany’s compass “remains focused on a strong NATO and a reliable transatlantic partnership,” but the space for independent decision making within the alliance is visibly narrowing.

Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

TWTW Note
UAE’s Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market

The timing of the exit during an ongoing major conflict reflects growing fragmentation within the Gulf.

Aishal Hab Yousuf

What happened?
On 28 April, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially notified its decision to exit from OPEC and OPEC+.

The UAE officials have framed the move as a strategic decision rather than a rupture of the existing status quo. Abu Dhabi insisted on the need for ‘flexibility’ in its production policy and for long-term economic diversification.

Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei remarked that “The exit is tied to expanding production capacity and long-term economic goals”. Senior diplomat Anwar Gargash maintains that the UAE is pursuing “strategic autonomy.”

What is the background?
1. A brief note on the OPEC and OPEC+
Established in 1960, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a coalition of major oil-producing countries that seeks to coordinate petroleum policies to stabilise global markets. Members have sought to collectively influence oil supply and, by extension, global prices. Over time, the organisation has been dominated by Gulf producers, especially Saudi Arabia. OPEC has served both economic and geopolitical interests. OPEC+ is an alliance formed in 2016 between OPEC and major non-OPEC producers, most notably Russia,  to coordinate oil production policies. Over the past decade, Qatar, Indonesia, Angola, and Ecuador have left OPEC, challenging its relevance and highlighting shifts in energy demand. The UAE’s exit from these groupings weakens its internal functioning, especially at a time of increased volatility in global energy. It signals a move towards autonomous energy strategies, undermining the concept of collective price-setting mechanisms.

2. Strains in Saudi Arabia–UAE relations
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been on friendly terms in coordinating oil policy and in regional security. Both countries share similar models of governance and also common security concerns in their immediate neighbourhood. However, recent events indicate signs of differences. Saudi Arabia, under the Vision 2030 framework, has sought to reposition itself as the region's leading economic power, a move that clashes with the UAE’s role as a commercial hub. There have been disputes within OPEC over production baselines in previous years that exposed these underlying tensions. The UAE has asked for higher production quotas that reflect its expanded production; however, Saudi Arabia has prioritised market stability. In addition to these points of contention, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have divergent interests in Sudan and Yemen; both have tried arming and funding proxies to manipulate the outcomes in their favour. The UAE’s exit from OPEC also reflects these tensions. It is not a direct confrontation, but it depicts a form of emancipation from Saudi-led frameworks.

3. UAE’s frustration with Gulf responses to the Iran war
For the UAE, the other Gulf countries have not responded decisively to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Reports indicate that Emirati policymakers are concerned about the implications for regional security and instability in the Strait of Hormuz. While Riyadh has proceeded with relative caution, the UAE’s stance has been focused on security. It has advocated for a stronger collective action to safeguard maritime routes and counter Iranian influence. The frustration is further compounded by economic concerns. The disruption of shipping lanes and oil flows has had a direct impact on the UAE’s trade-dependent economy. Abu Dhabi is increasingly unwilling to rely on multilateral institutions it considers ineffective or slow-moving.

What does it mean?
First, a turning point for Gulf energy politics. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is a significant benchmark in the evolution of Gulf energy governance. It reflects a broader trend towards decentralisation, in which individual states have prioritised their national interests in both the economy and security over collective goals and structures. While the likelihood of OPEC disintegrating is low, its ability to enforce its agenda over member states may come into question.

Second, implications for Saudi Arabian leadership. For Riyadh, the move represents a two-fold strategy, an opportunity and also a challenge. While it may reflect the limitations of its influence over the remaining OPEC countries, it may also allow Saudi Arabia to solidify its leadership. The long-term impact of the move on Saudi Arabia’s leadership is yet to be seen. Analysts and reports from Al Jazeera and Reuters have noted that Saudi Arabia is likely to retain its dominant spare capacity, which may allow it to steer production policy in the short term. Thus, the immediate economic impact on Riyadh is limited. OPEC+ partners like Moscow may find it difficult to navigate market volatility.

Third, regional fragmentation amidst crisis. The timing of the exit during an ongoing major conflict reflects growing fragmentation within the Gulf. The lack of a unified response to the war highlights diverging threat perceptions and policy priorities. 

Fourth, global energy market uncertainty. The UAE’s decision also adds to the uncertainty in global energy markets. With OPEC’s cohesion being questioned and geopolitical tensions being volatile, oil prices are likely to remain unpredictable. The International Energy Agency has already cautioned against prolonged instability, and the UAE’s latest move may accelerate a shift towards an unpredictable energy market.

Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

TWTW Note
Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichi’s Visit: 
Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation

The Japanese PM’s visit has expanded the scope of bilateral cooperation beyond trade, investment, and development aid to include critical minerals, AI, and semiconductors.

Siddhi Halyur

What happened? 
On 1 May 2026, Japanese Sanae Takainichi arrived in Hanoi for her first visit to Vietnam since becoming the PM. On 2 May 2026, Takaichi met Vietnam’s top leadership, including President To Lam and Prime Minister Le Minh Hung. According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the two leaders discussed ways to further develop bilateral ties under the Japan-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The talks focused on economic security, energy, critical minerals, science and technology, artificial intelligence, supply chains, and regional security. Takainichi was also expected to discuss Vietnam’s business environment and how Japanese companies face difficulties gaining access to large infrastructure projects and receiving delayed payments for completed work.  

Following the talks, both countries signed and exchanged six bilateral cooperation documents. The areas covered are space technology, climate change adaptation, disaster-resilient infrastructure, and digitalisation. 

What is the background? 
1. A brief background to bilateral ties
Japan is one of Vietnam’s most important foreign investors. Japanese firms operating in Vietnam work in energy, infrastructure and technology-linked sectors. Investment conditions were one of the main topics of discussion during this visit. Japan’s presence in Vietnam is concentrated in sectors linked to industrial production, energy, urban development and infrastructure. As of January 2026, Japan has 5,722 valid investment projects in Vietnam, totalling USD 78.9 billion in capital. Japanese investment pledges fell by 75 per cent in early 2026 due to concerns over Vietnam's business environment. Key issues included delays in payments for complete work, limited access to large infrastructure projects and regulatory uncertainty. 

2. Importance of Critical Minerals and Supply Chains in Japan-Vietnam relations
Critical minerals are a major part of the newer economic security agenda. Japan is seeking to reduce dependence on China for rare earths. Vietnam has rare-earth and gallium resources, but it faces technical challenges in refining them. During the visit, Japan and Vietnam agreed to cooperate on developing mineral supply chains. In recent years, the cooperation has also expanded into higher-value sectors, including green transition projects, semiconductors, and skilled workforce training. 

What does it mean?
First, the Japanese PM’s visit has expanded the sphere of bilateral cooperation. Previously, Japan-Vietnam cooperation focused on trade, investment, development aid, and other areas related to economic development. This is now extended further to areas related to economic security, such as critical minerals, energy, semiconductors, AI, space technologies, infrastructure, and other supply chains.

Second, this visit is consistent with Japan's efforts to diversify its supply chains and reduce its dependence on China. In particular, Japan may consider Vietnam an additional source of production facilities for electronics, machinery, automotive, and related industries in Southeast Asia. For Japan, Vietnam’s critical minerals can become valuable to its efforts to secure the raw materials needed for advanced technologies, clean energy sources, and industrial production. As a member state of ASEAN, Vietnam offers Japan opportunities to enhance its regional economic and strategic presence through its FOIP strategy. 

Third, for Vietnam, it means attracting investment and developing high-value industries and infrastructure. Strengthening relations with Japan is consistent with Vietnam's general policy practice of developing relations with various partners, both economically and strategically. 

Siddhi Halyur is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Public Policy and Journalism at St Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

TWTW Takeaways
King Charles's US Visit: 
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation

King Charles' speeches at the US Congress and the White House focused on partnership, mutual respect, and long-term friendship between the US and the UK.

Nithin V

On 28 April 2026, King Charles, during his US visit, addressed the US Congress and later spoke at the White House. Although the visit was largely ceremonial, it took place at a time of visible tensions between the US and the UK, especially over foreign policy issues such as the Iran conflict. In his two speeches, King Charles focused on shared values, long-standing ties, and the need for continued cooperation. 

The following are the major takeaways of his two speeches.

1. The US-UK relationship continues to remain strong based on shared history and values
One of the central themes of the visit was the strength of the US-UK relationship. King Charles highlighted the deep historical connection between the two countries and their shared democratic traditions. He noted that both nations have stood together during major global events and have consistently worked together on political, economic, and security matters. This emphasis shows that the relationship is not based only on present political interests but also on deeper institutional, cultural, and historical links. These long-standing connections create a sense of continuity and trust between the two countries. Even when disagreements arise, these shared foundations help maintain stability. By focusing on history and values, the speeches reinforced the idea that the partnership remains strong and resilient despite changing global dynamics.

2. Emphasis on cooperation and not differences
Despite the strong relationship, there are clear differences between the US and the UK, especially in their approach to international issues such as the Iran conflict. The United States has shown a willingness to act independently and quickly, while the United Kingdom has generally preferred working with allies and focusing on coordinated responses. However, these differences were not directly addressed in King Charles’s speeches. Instead, he focused on unity, cooperation, and shared responsibility in dealing with global challenges. This reflects a deliberate diplomatic strategy. By avoiding open discussion of disagreements, the speeches aim to manage differences quietly and prevent them from affecting the broader relationship. It also suggests that both countries recognise the importance of maintaining public cooperation, even when their approaches may differ in practice.

3. Democratic values as the foundation of bilateral relations
Democratic values were strongly emphasised in King Charles’s speeches, particularly in his address to Congress. He spoke about the importance of democracy, the rule of law, and strong institutions as the foundation of both societies. By highlighting these principles, he reinforced that the US and the UK are connected not only by strategic interests but also by shared political values. At the same time, this message can also be seen as a subtle reminder. In the current global and domestic political context, where democratic systems sometimes face challenges, emphasising these values becomes more significant. Without directly criticising any particular political development, the speech underlined the importance of maintaining democratic traditions and responsibilities. This adds a deeper layer of meaning to the relationship.

4. Security cooperation as a practical pillar 
Security cooperation was another important theme in King Charles’s speeches, especially in his remarks at the White House. He highlighted the need for the US and the UK to work together to address current global challenges, including conflicts, instability, and emerging security threats. The focus was on practical and ongoing cooperation between the two countries rather than on broad or symbolic references. This shows that even when there are differences in foreign policy approaches, both countries continue to collaborate closely in security and defence. Such cooperation remains an important factor in stabilising the relationship and ensuring that both countries can respond effectively to global challenges.

5. The significance of the monarchy in sustaining diplomatic relations
The visit also highlights the role of the British monarchy in international diplomacy. As a constitutional monarch, King Charles does not make political decisions and is not associated with any political party. This allows him to act as a neutral and unifying figure in diplomatic engagements. During his visit, his speeches focused on partnership, mutual respect, and long-term friendship between the US and the UK. His presence and messaging helped create a positive and stable diplomatic environment. This shows how the monarchy contributes through soft diplomacy. Instead of addressing conflicts directly, it plays a role in strengthening trust, maintaining continuity, and supporting long-term relationships between countries.

Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

TWTW Regional Roundups
From East Asia to the Americas: News from around the world

Aishal Yousuf, Akshath Kaimal, Aparna A Nair, Ashwin R, Brighty Ann Sarah, Femy Francis, Glynnis Winona Beschi, Kirsten Wilfred Coelho, Lekshmi MK, Manik Dhawan, Nishita Manoharan, Nithin V, R Preetha, Rakshitha B, Rebecca Ann Oomen, Santhiya M, Sreekanishkaa GK, Sreemaya Nair, Shrinidhi Senthivel, Shwetha R, Siddhi Halyur, Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha, Yesasvi Koganti

TWT Special 
The US–Iran War, Week Nine: A Chronological Profile

25 April 2026: Day 57
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Tehran refuses direct talks with the US, rejects “maximalist demands”
On 25 April, Reuters reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi outlined its demands and concerns regarding the US position after arriving in Islamabad. Araqchi held meetings with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and other high-level officials. A statement on Mr Araqchi's Telegram account said the minister "explained our country's principled positions regarding the latest developments related to the ceasefire and the complete end of the imposed war against Iran." Another Iranian diplomat commented on the US's demands and said that Iran will not accept any "maximalist demands." Washington dispatched President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson posted on X that the Iranian delegation did not plan to meet with US representatives and would hold talks only with Pakistani officials. 

Iran to make offer satisfying US demands, claims Trump
On 25 April, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump said on 24 April that the Iranians planned to make an offer that would satisfy US demands. He added that the US was now dealing with "people that are in charge now." Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, stated the US had seen some progress from Iran and hoped for more developments this weekend. Vice President JD Vance is also ready to travel to Islamabad. Meanwhile, international flights also resumed from Iran's Imam Khomeini International Airport on Saturday. The first flights departed for Medina, Muscat and Istanbul. (“Iran to make offer aimed at satisfying US demands, Trump says,” Reuters, 25 April 2026; “Iran says it won't accept 'maximalist demands' as Islamabad hosts peace push,”  Reuters, 25 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-make-offer-aimed-satisfying-us-demands-trump-tells-reuters-2026-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-negotiators-go-islamabad-iran-says-no-direct-talks-2026-04-25)

27 April 2026: Day 59
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Islamabad continues mediation efforts despite failure of planned visit by US envoys; Tehran’s phased proposal stands at odds with Washington’s emphasis on nuclear issues
On 27 April, Reuters reported that Pakistan continues efforts to mediate between the US and Iran despite the breakdown of  diplomatic efforts. This follows the cancellation of a planned visit by US envoys after President Donald Trump called off the trip. The prospects for restarting negotiations have been dim since Washington scrapped the 25 April visit of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Pakistan and Oman before arriving in Russia on 26 April to meet President Vladimir Putin.
Trump stated that the Iranian offer was insufficient, adding that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough.” He further stated: “If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure ?lines.” Trump went on to reiterate Washington’s core demand, stating: “They know what has to be in the agreement. It’s very simple: They cannot have a nuclear weapon; otherwise, there’s no reason to meet.” On the other hand, Iranian sources outlined a phased proposal beginning with ending the US-Israeli war on Iran and securing guarantees against its resumption. Subsequent stages would address sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and eventually the nuclear issue, with Iran continuing to seek US acknowledgement of its right to peaceful uranium enrichment. However, this phased proposal stands at odds with Washington’s emphasis on prioritizing nuclear issues.
Pakistani officials stated that  negotiations were still taking place remotely, but noted that in-person meeting is unlikely until both sides get close to sign an agreement. “Both sides could be settling in for a test of wills to see who can endure economic pain before making concessions,” noted Reuters. (“Pakistan still seeks to bridge US, Iran gaps despite failure of face-to-face talks,” Reuters, 27 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iranian-foreign-minister-heads-russia-trump-says-call-us-negotiate-2026-04-27/)

Chancellor Merz criticises US as Iran talks stall amid rising tensions
On 27 April, Reuters reported that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Iran has been “humiliating” the United States as the negotiations have stalled despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Merz has critiqued Washington’s strategy, questioning its intentions on how it aims to bring the conflict to a conclusion. Merz also insisted that European allies were not consulted by either Israel or US, prior to the conflict, and also expressed his displeasure on the initiation of a conflict to President Trump himself. He also mentioned that there was growing unease among the European allies over the trajectory of the conflict. During his interaction Merz also pointed out the economic impacts of the war which he believes is costing Germany "a lot of money, a lot of taxpayers' money and a lot of economic strength."
(“Germany’s Merz says Iran is humiliating US as talks stall,” Reuters, 27 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/germanys-merz-says-iran-is-humiliating-us-talks-stall-2026-04-27/)

28 April 2026: Day 60
Tehran proposes Hormuz reopening as talks stall over nuclear issue; Iran, in a “State of Collapse,” wants Washington to open the Strait of Hormuz, claims Trump
On 28 April, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz conditionally, in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade. However, there is also a proposal to negotiate its nuclear programme. The proposal, conveyed via Islamabad, aims to de-escalate tensions on the ground and stabilise energy flows disrupted by the closure of the strait. As per Reuters, US officials have maintained that President Trump wants nuclear issues “dealt with from the outset.” The Trump administration expressed reluctance, with officials sceptical of the absence of nuclear provisions and warning against what they consider to be conceding leverage. Via Truth Social, Trump stated that "Iran has just informed us that they are in a 'State of Collapse'. They want us to 'Open the Hormuz Strait,' as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter!", while Reuters has noted that it remains unclear as to how Tehran may have communicated the same. According to The Hindu, while the White House confirmed it is reviewing the proposed plan, early reports suggest rejection in its current form. 
(“What’s in Iran’s latest proposal – and how has the US responded?” Al Jazeera, 28 April 2026.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/whats-in-irans-latest-proposal-and-how-has-the-us-responded. 
“Israel-Iran war LIVE: Gulf leaders meet in Saudi to discuss war's fallout as U.S. examines latest Iran proposal,” The Hindu, 28 April 2026. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-war-live-trump-ceasefire-talks-strait-of-hormuz-updates-april-28-2026/article70914662.ece. 
“Trump says Iran has told him it is in a 'state of collapse',” Reuters, 28 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-not-happy-with-latest-iran-proposal-end-war-us-official-says-2026-04-28/)

The United Arab Emirates leaves OPEC amid emerging differences with Gulf states
On 28 April, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates is quitting the organisations OPEC and OPEC+. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the UAE made this decision after carefully considering Abu Dhabi’s strategies and future production policies. He also said the UAE did not consult any other country, including Saudi Arabia, which is considered the de facto leader of OPEC. He added that the UAE's exit from the organization will not have a significant impact on the oil market, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This announcement comes after the UAE criticised its neighbouring Arab states for not doing enough to protect it from Iranian attacks. Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said on Monday that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries provided very limited support to one another in political and military terms. 
(“UAE leaves OPEC in major blow to global oil producers' group,” Reuters, 28 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/)

Saudi Arabia chairs the first in-person GCC meeting on Iran strikes; GCC’s political and military response “weakest in history,” criticises the UAE’s top official
On 28 April, Reuters reported that Saudi  Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chaired a consultative meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah, the first in-person meeting of Gulf leaders since the war began. Sources revealed that the meeting hinged on responding to the Iranian strikes on the Gulf states during the course of the war, including the attacks on critical energy infrastructure across six GCC states. Qatar's emir, Kuwait's crown prince, Bahrain's king and the United Arab Emirates' foreign minister attended the summit. Saudi state media said the summit discussed "topics and issues related to regional and international developments, and the coordination of efforts regarding them." The UAE has levelled severe criticism against the GCC in their response to the war, as senior UAE official Anwar Gargash stated that while the forum ensures mutual logistical support, “politically and militarily, I think their position was the weakest in history.” "I expected such a weak position from the Arab League, and I am not surprised by it, but I have not expected it from the GCC, and I am surprised by it,’ he added.
(“Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss response to Iranian strikes,” Reuters, 28 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-leaders-meet-saudi-arabia-discuss-response-iranian-strikes-2026-04-28/)

29 April 2026: Day 61
Trump's proposed deal: President Trump urges Iran to make a deal as the US prepares to extend its blockade
On April 29, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal with the US soon. Posting on Truth Social, Trump said that Iran doesn't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal and it should get smart soon. According to another report, President Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. Officials said that the US President believes that bombing Iran or leaving the conflict would be risky choices, prompting him to squeeze the Iranian economy through a blockade. The Iranian Student News Agency said on Wednesday that Iran's Rial fell to a record low of 1.8 million rials per the US dollar. The proposal made by Iran to end the conflict demands that its nuclear programme be discussed only when the conflict ends and shipping issues are resolved. This proposal contradicts President Trump's demand of the nuclear issue being discussed as a part of the deal. Last weekend, President Trump also scrapped a visit by his envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Pakistan. He also met top officials from US energy companies to discuss oil production, gas and shipping. According to a poll by Reuters, only 34 per cent of Americans approve of President Trump's leadership, putting him under strong domestic pressure. 
( "Trump urges Iran to sign a deal and discusses prolonged blockade," Reuters, 29 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-urges-iran-sign-deal-after-report-suggests-us-may-extend-blockade-2026-04-29/)

EU warns aftermath of Iran war may last longer than predicted; Von der Leyen urges shift to clean energy as Iran war triggers prolonged crisis risks
On 29 April, The Guardian reported that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned the Iran war may have long term economic and energy impacts. She urged the EU to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. She spoke before the European Parliament “There is also a harsh reality we all need to face: the consequences of this conflict may echo for months or even years to come.” Rising energy prices following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified supply concerns and increased the costs of imports. She also remarked “This is the second energy crisis within four years, and the lesson should be very clear. Our overdependency on imported fossil fuels makes us vulnerable.“ The EU is now considering further policy measures, though differences exist among member states over the scale and also the pace of response.
(“EU warns of prolonged energy fallout from Iran war,” The Guardian, 29 April 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/29/europe-iran-hungary-russia-ukraine-eu-latest-news-updates)

30 April 2026: Day 62
Tehran threatens to retaliate as tensions increase oil prices; Washington calls for a global coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz
On 30 April, Reuters reported that Iran has warned of a “long and painful” strike if the US resumes attacks, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz persist. Oil prices have surged amid stalled talks and continued supply disruptions. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said new management of the Strait of Hormuz would bring stability and economic benefits. Iran's Supreme Leader stated Tehran will secure the Gulf region and curb what he believed is "the enemy's abuses of the waterway.” On 29 April, Reuters also reported that the United States is urging its allies to form a coalition to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz amid stalled efforts to resolve the conflict. Oil prices have surged on supply fears, with tensions escalating as negotiations remain deadlocked.
(“Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz 'will bring calm’,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-says-new-phase-taking-shape-gulf-strait-2026-04-30/
“Iran threatens painful response if US resumes attacks, oil prices seesaw,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-seeks-international-help-reopen-strait-hormuz-crude-prices-surge-2026-04-30/
“US seeks international help to reopen Strait of Hormuz as crude prices surge,” Reuters, 29 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-urges-iran-sign-deal-after-report-suggests-us-may-extend-blockade-2026-04-29/)

The Iran war has cost USD 25 billion so far, reveals Pentagon
On 29 April, Reuters reported that the US war with Iran has cost USD 25 billion according to a senior Pentagon official. This is the first official estimate of the USA's expenditure on the conflict. Jules Hurst informed the House Armed Services Committee that most of this money was spent on munitions. Jules did not provide details on what the estimate included and whether the cost of repairing damaged US bases was included. Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said he was glad to receive this information after repeated requests. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that this cost was justified because the American objective was to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. He attacked Democrats for their stance on the Iran war, which he according to him, hands propaganda to the enemies of the US. 
("US war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, says Pentagon official," Reuters, 29 April 2026.) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-war-iran-has-cost-25-billion-so-far-says-pentagon-official-2026-04-29/)

Oil prices retreat after hitting a four-year high
On 30 April, Reuters reported that global oil prices had surged above USD 126 per barrel, the highest since 2022 on fears of escalating US-Iran conflict and a threat of prolonged supply disruptions, before retreating amid heightened market volatility. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil flows, has sharply constrained the existing supply. Analysts have noted that extreme price swings reflect the uncertainty over potential US military action and stalled negotiations. Sustained volatility is therefore expected due to fuel global inflation, raise fuel costs, and weigh on economic growth.
(“Oil retreats after hitting four-year high on concern of US-Iran war escalation,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-retreats-after-hitting-four-year-high-concern-us-iran-war-escalation-2026-04-30/)

Lebanon: Israel intensifies attacks on south Lebanon despite ceasefire; Nine civilians killed and evacuation alerts issued to eight towns
On 30 April, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed nine civilians as Tel Aviv intensified artillery shelling in the region. The attacks were launched despite a three-week extension to the US-mediated ceasefire with Lebanon. The Israeli Defence Forces also warned residents of eight towns outside of the "buffer zone" to evacuate their homes immediately ahead of strikes. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz threatened that Lebanon’s fate will be like Gaza’s, despite the ceasefire agreement. Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun decried the “continuing Israeli violations” in southern Lebanon, highlighting that they were launched “despite the ceasefire, as do demolitions of homes and places of worship, while the number of killed and wounded rises day after day”. “Pressure must be exerted on Israel to ensure it respects international laws and conventions and ceases targeting civilians, paramedics, civil defence, and humanitarian health and relief organisations,” he added. (“Israel kills nine people in southern Lebanon despite ‘ceasefire’.” Al Jazeera, 30 April 2026.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/israel-kills-nine-people-in-southern-lebanon-despite-ceasefire)

01 May 2026: Day 63
Iran presents a new proposal; UAE official says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz
On 01 May, Reuters reported that UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said that Iran could not be trusted to make unilateral arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. Gargash, highlighting the interests of the Gulf states, said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the Strait. He further added that no unilateral arrangement by Iran could be trusted following its "treacherous aggression against all its neighbors." Iran also sent a new proposal for negotiations with the United States to Pakistani mediators which led to a drop in oil prices. The Iranian state news agency gave no details of this proposal. According to reports, US President Trump was briefed on plans for new military strikes to force Iran to negotiate. In response, Iran has activated air defences and plans a wider retaliation. 
("Iran sends proposal for negotiations with US to mediator Pakistan," Reuters, 01 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/uae-says-iran-cannot-be-trusted-over-hormuz-peace-efforts-an-impasse-2026-05-01/)

Iran’s President and Parliamentary Speaker seek Foreign Minister Araqchi’s ouster over ties with the IRGC leadership, reports Iran International; Speaker Ghalibaf accuses Trump of exploiting internal divisions to force “surrender”
On 01 May, Iran International, in an exclusive report, stated that Iran’s president and parliament speaker are reportedly seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, accusing him of following directives from the Revolutionary Guard Commander Ahmad Vahidi during nuclear negotiations without informing the presidency.  President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf expressed disagreements over the conduct of the war and its damaging impact on livelihoods and the economy. The report also highlighted the president's frustration over the “complete political deadlock” and had been stripped of the authority to appoint replacements for officials killed during the conflict. According to the report, Ahmad Vahidi argued that, given the wartime situation, all key and sensitive positions should be directly controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. 
On 30 April, CNN reported that Speaker Ghalibaf had accused President Trump of attempting to force Iran into “surrender” through economic pressure and by exploiting internal divisions. Ghalibaf accused Iran’s adversaries of trying to weaken the country from within through “siege tactics and media manipulation.” He urged public unity as the main defence against what he called a new “conspiracy,” saying “every divisive action is part of the enemy’s plan” and that officials remain aligned with the supreme leader. He did not specify the nature of the divisions.
(“Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf seek Araghchi’s ouster over 'subservience' to Guards,” Iran International, 01 May 2026.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604302117
“Iran’s Ghalibaf urges unity amid divisions, says Trump seeks surrender,” CNN, 30 April 2026.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/29/world/live-news/iran-war-peace-proposal-trump?post-id=cmokizwfv00003b6qtqomi3jr)

The Trump administration cites the April ceasefire to counter the War Powers Resolution at the 60-day deadline
On 01 March, Reuters reported that senior Trump officials argued that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in April and the subsequent suspension of hostilities bypasses the 01 May deadline on achieving congressional approval for the US-Israel war against Iran. "For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated," said the official. 
The War Powers Resolution is a federal law passed in 1973 to limit the president’s ability to engage the US forces in armed conflict without congressional approval. Enacted in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, it requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops and prohibits forces from continuing hostilities for more than 60 days, with a possible 30-day withdrawal period, unless Congress authorizes the action or declares war. The act aims to ensure that war-time decisions are in line with the Constitution’s division of war powers where only the Congress declares war and the president serves as Commander-in-Chief. 
In the US-Israel war against Iran which began on 28 February, the deadline was set to expire on 01 May.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers at a Senate hearing with the ceasefire in place, the “60-day clock pauses, or stops.” 
(“US official says Iran war truce 'terminated' hostilities for war powers deadline,” Reuters, 01 May 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/war-powers-resolution-purposes-us-hostilities-with-iran-that-began-february-have-2026-05-01/)

US Navy awards USD 99 million contract to AI firm to accelerate mine detection in the Strait of Hormuz
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the US Navy is accelerating its AI capabilities to track and remove mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy has awarded a USD 99 million contract to San Francisco-based artificial intelligence company Domino Data Lab to develop software that can train underwater drones to identify new types of mines.  The project is central to the Navy’s  Project AMMO - Accelerated Machine Learning for Maritime Operations - a program to make underwater mine detection faster, more accurate, and less dependent on human sailors. “The Navy is paying for the platform that lets it train, govern, and field that AI at a speed required for contested waters,” said Domino's CEO, Thomas Robinson. Prior to the initiative, updating AI models for the navy’s unmanned underwater vehicles to detect new or previously unseen mines could take up to six months; Domino says it has reduced that timeline to just days.
(“US Navy turns to AI firm Domino for options to counter Iranian mines,” Reuters, 01 May 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-navy-turns-ai-firm-domino-options-counter-iranian-mines-2026-05-01/)

Lebanon: Division among top officials hindering Saudi mediation efforts
On 30 April, Reuters reported that a growing divide between top Lebanese officials has hindered Saudi Arabia's efforts to help Lebanon have a united position over negotiations with Israel. Riyadh has deepened its engagement with Beirut in recent days after Hezbollah was severely weakened by Israel in 2024. The US had hoped that the recent truce between Israel and Lebanon would lead to direct negotiations on a peace agreement. However, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri are divided over the format and objectives of the negotiations. President Aoun supports direct talks with Israel and has expressed desire for permanent peace agreements. Berri, who is a Hezbollah ally, opposes direct talks with Israel and supports a non-aggression pact instead of a complete peace agreement. Last week, Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Farhan visited Beirut to help Lebanese leaders find common ground. However, tensions between Aoun and Berri derailed Saudi plans to organise a meeting between Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, President Aoun and Berri this week.
("Lebanon's internal splits over talks with Israel trip up Saudi mediation efforts," Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-internal-splits-over-talks-with-israel-trip-up-saudi-mediation-efforts-2026-04-30/)
 
CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
China: Beijing tests deep-sea neutrino telescope equipment successfully
On 26 April, Global Times reported that Chinese scientists successfully completed sea trials of key equipment for the Tropical Deep-sea Neutrino Telescope (TRIDENT) located at about 3,500 metres underwater in the South China Sea. The project aims to study high-energy neutrinos to better understand cosmic rays and space-related phenomena. During the tests scientists checked important systems such as the instrument deployment system, underwater positioning, and connector devices. The equipment performed well under deep-sea conditions confirming its strength and accuracy.The telescope uses a new method that detects neutrinos passing through the Earth allowing it to observe without any blind spots.. Its core detection unit was able to capture very weak signals with high precision. The project also collected environmental and biodiversity data to support future work. The development highlights China’s progress in advanced scientific research, especially in space science and deep-sea technology. (“China's neutrino telescope hardware passes deep-sea test,” 26 April 2026. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359823.shtml)

China: Authorities order reversal of Meta’s AI acquisition
On 27 April, The New York Times reported that China has ordered the unwinding of Meta’s acquisition of Manus, a Singapore based AI firm with Chinese founders, citing foreign investment and technology export concerns. The move highlights increased regulatory scrutiny over cross-border tech deals and could deter Chinese startups from partnering with foreign firms. Analysts suggest that the decision reflects broader geopolitical tensions shaping global AI competition and investment flows.
(“China Orders the Unwinding of Meta’s Acquisition of an A.I. Start-Up,” The New York Times, 27 April 2026. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/china-meta-manus-ai-deal.html)

China & Europe: China warns EU over ‘Made in Europe’ policies, reports France 24
On 27 April, France 24 reported that China has warned the European Union against policies promoting domestic manufacturing under “Made in Europe” initiatives, signalling potential countermeasures. The report noted that China views such policies as restrictive and inconsistent with open trade principles, while the EU aims to strengthen industrial capacity and reduce reliance on external suppliers. The development highlights growing tensions between China and the EU over trade and industrial strategy, reflecting broader debates over economic security and supply chain resilience.
(“China warns EU over ‘Made in Europe’ plan,” France 24, 27 April 2026)
Link: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260427-china-warns-eu-made-in-europe-plan-countermeasures

China: Industrial firms see profits rise in first quarter of 2026; Beijing expands economic tools despite trade truce with Washington, says Reuters
On 27 April, Reuters reported that China’s industrial firms saw their profits rise by 15.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to last year. This shows that the economy is slowly improving mainly due to better performance in manufacturing and high-tech industries. In March profits grew at the fastest rate in six months showing stronger industrial activity. However, the recovery is not equal across all sectors. Industries linked to new technologies are doing well but consumer-related sectors are still weak because demand remains low. There are also challenges such as slow global trade, rising costs, and international uncertainties that could affect future growth.Overall the data shows that China’s economy is recovering, but there are still risks, and the government may need to take steps to support stable growth.

In a separate report, Reuters highlighted that China is quietly strengthening its economic tools even while keeping a trade truce with the United States under President Donald Trump. While both sides appear stable publicly, China has taken steps like tightening export controls on important materials such as rare earths and limiting the use of foreign technology. China has also introduced new laws that allow it to act against foreign companies if they are seen as harming its interests or moving supply chains out of China. These measures aim to reduce dependence on other countries and support China’s own industries. Experts say China is preparing for future tensions by building stronger economic power. Overall even though tensions seem lower now, both countries are getting ready for continued economic competition. (“China's industrial profit growth quickens even as the Iran war heightens risks,” Reuters, 27 April 2026; “Under cover of trade truce with Trump, China expands economic pressure toolkit,” Reuters, 26 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-industrial-firms-profit-rises-155-first-quarter-2026-04-27/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/under-cover-trade-truce-with-trump-china-expands-economic-pressure-toolkit-2026-04-26/)

China: Xi chairs CPC meeting to reinforce economic policy
On 28 April, Global Times reported that President Xi Jinping chaired a Communist Party Politburo meeting to assess economic conditions, noting a strong start to 2026 but highlighting persistent challenges. The meeting called for proactive fiscal and targeted monetary policies, expansion of domestic demand, and strengthening of industrial and technological self-reliance. Officials also emphasised managing risks in property markets and local debt while boosting long term economic resilience.
(“Xi chairs CPC leadership meeting on economic situation and work,” Global Times, 28 April 2026. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359968.shtml)

China & Iran: Beijing’s call to keep Hormuz open reflects limits of Iran ties says SCMP
On 29 April, SCMP reported that China has called for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open amid rising tensions involving Iran, emphasising the importance of stability and uninterrupted energy flows. The waterway is a critical transit route for global oil shipments, including a substantial share of China’s crude imports. The report noted that China’s dependence on energy supplies passing through Hormuz makes any disruption a direct economic concern. While Beijing maintains strong diplomatic and economic ties with Iran, experts cited in the article said China’s position underscores the limits of this relationship when core energy security interests are at stake. The development highlights China’s balancing approach in West Asia, where it seeks to maintain strategic partnerships while ensuring the stability of key supply routes essential for its economic growth. (“China’s calls to keep Hormuz open show limits of its ties with Iran,” SCMP, 29 April 2026. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3351707/chinas-calls-open-hormuz-show-limits-its-ties-iran-experts-say) 

China & Africa: Beijing identifies faster shipping routes to Africa amid trade growth
On 29 April, Business Insider Africa reported that China has identified faster maritime shipping routes to Africa as bilateral trade continues to expand, with trade volumes reaching significant levels in recent years. The development aims to reduce transit times and improve logistical efficiency between Chinese and African ports. The report noted that enhanced shipping routes and supply chain optimisation are helping lower transportation costs and strengthen connectivity. These improvements support growing demand for goods and infrastructure across African markets, where China remains a major trade partner. The shift reflects China’s broader focus on trade facilitation and supply chain resilience, reinforcing Africa’s role in its global economic strategy while improving the efficiency of cross-regional commerce. (“China discovers faster shipping routes to Africa,” Business Insider Africa, 29 April 2026. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/china-discovers-faster-shipping-routes-to-africa-as-dollar63bn-trade-surge-signals/8le3g0n)

China & Latin America: Latin American states criticise China’s response over Panama Canal dispute reports Al Jazeera
On 29 April, Al Jazeera reported that several Latin American countries have criticised China’s retaliatory measures linked to tensions surrounding the Panama Canal, raising concerns about the implications for trade and regional stability. The dispute has drawn attention due to the canal’s importance as a key global shipping route. The report noted that governments in the region expressed concern over the economic and diplomatic consequences of China’s actions, calling for dialogue and restraint to prevent further escalation. The issue has highlighted sensitivities around external involvement in strategic infrastructure. The development reflects broader complexities in China’s engagement with Latin America, particularly where economic interests intersect with geopolitical considerations involving major trade routes. (“US, Latin America criticise China’s retaliation over Panama Canal,” Al Jazeera, 29 April 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/29/us-latin-america-countries-criticise-chinas-retaliation-over-panama-canal)

China & Africa: Africa sees surge in Chinese solar imports
On 29 April, Business Insider Africa reported that African countries are experiencing a significant increase in imports of Chinese solar technology, while Latin America has seen a sharp decline. The shift reflects changing regional demand patterns in the global renewable energy market.The report noted that China continues to dominate solar equipment manufacturing, supplying panels and components to support Africa’s growing energy needs. Increased imports are linked to expanding electrification efforts and investment in renewable infrastructure across the continent.The development highlights Africa’s rising importance in China’s clean energy export strategy, while also reflecting broader shifts in global energy demand and regional market dynamics. (“Africa surges in Chinese solar imports,” Business Insider Africa, 29 April 2026. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/africa-surges-in-chinese-solar-imports-as-latin-america-sees-sharp-51-collapse-in/fn3y9lz)

China & Global Economy: China’s trade outlook remains central to global trends reports FT
On 29 April, Financial Times reported that China’s trade performance continues to play a central role in shaping global economic conditions. The report highlighted developments in exports, supply chains, and economic policy direction. It noted that China remains a key driver of global trade flows, with changes in its economic strategy having ripple effects across international markets. The report also pointed to challenges including geopolitical tensions and market adjustments. The development underscores China’s continued importance in the global economy, where shifts in its trade and industrial policies carry broader implications for economic stability.
(“FT report on China’s trade outlook,” Financial Times, 29 April 2026.  https://www.ft.com/content/c9cd5751-8d2d-4f24-b676-7c3ec349e404)

China: Conducts patrols near Scarborough Shoal
On 30 April, Reuters reported that China’s military carried out naval and air patrols near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea to test its combat readiness. The drills were done by the Southern Theater Command to improve coordination and preparedness. China said the patrols were in response to what it called “provocative actions” referring to joint military exercises by the United States, the Philippines and their allies in the region. These exercises involve several countries and focus on defence cooperation and training. China said the patrols were meant to protect its territorial claims and maintain stability. However, the Philippines said it did not see any unusual Chinese military activity and accused China of exaggerating the situation. The incident shows ongoing tensions in the South China Sea where competing claims and military activities continue to raise security concerns. 
(“China conducts combat readiness patrols in Scarborough Shoal,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-conducts-combat-readiness-patrols-scarborough-shoal-2026-04-30/)

China and US: Tensions rise over Taiwan and trade ahead of Trump-Xi summit
On 01 May, Reuters reported that China warned the US that the Taiwan issue remains the “biggest point of risk” in bilateral relations. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to respect Beijing’s core interests and take decisions that would sustain cooperation. The remarks come ahead of a planned mid-May summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, with both sides preparing for high-level exchanges while attempting to preserve stability in ties. Simultaneously, senior economic officials from both countries held “candid” discussions which highlighted concerns over each other’s trade actions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described China’s recent supply chain rules as “provocative” and warned that they could unsettle global supply networks. In response, China has raised objections to US trade restrictions. Despite these differences, both sides indicated willingness to manage disagreements and continue engagement ahead of the summit.
(“China's foreign minister tells Rubio Taiwan is 'biggest risk' in ties,”Reuters, 30 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-foreign-minister-tells-rubio-taiwan-is-biggest-risk-ties-2026-04-30/ 
“China, US economic chiefs raise complaints in 'candid' call ahead of Trump-Xi summit,” Reuters, 30 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-us-trade-chiefs-had-candid-call-weeks-ahead-expected-trump-xi-summit-2026-04-30/)

SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
The Philippines and the US: Joint coastal defence exercise near the South China Sea conducted along the strategic Palawan islands
On 27 April, the Philippines and the US, along with Australia and New Zealand conducted annual coastal defence maneuvers along the Palawan islands facing the South China Sea. The annual “shoulder to shoulder” defence exercise tested advanced weapons capabilities and operational readiness, focusing on counter-landing exercises. The drills featured systems such as HIMARS, differing from previous iterations by its heavy use of unmanned systems, including drones, reported Reuters. Military Chief Romeo Brawner underscored Palawan’s strategic importance, noting it faces the South China Sea and lies opposite the Kalayaan Island Group in the Spratly Islands, which Manila considers part of its exclusive economic zone. “We are defending our exclusive economic zone, where we get our resources, food and energy. So it’s really very important that we defend this territory of the Philippines,” he said.
(“Philippines and US stage counter-landing drills with allies near South China Sea,” Reuters, 27 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/philippines-us-stage-counter-landing-drills-with-allies-near-south-china-sea-2026-04-27/)

Myanmar and Thailand: Bilateral engagement expands as Thailand strengthens cooperation with military leadership
On 25 April, according to Mizzima, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow visited Naypyidaw and met with Myanmar’s leader, Min Aung Hlaing, to agree to expand cooperation across multiple sectors. Reports indicate that discussions focused on border security, trade, investment, energy, and development, as well as on joint efforts to address cross-border issues such as drug trafficking and online scams. The visit also included meetings with senior officials to strengthen economic partnerships and regional connectivity. Observers note that the engagement reflects a pragmatic regional approach, balancing diplomatic relations with concerns over ongoing conflict and instability in Myanmar.
(“Thai FM meets Myanmar leader, agrees to expand border cooperation,” Mizzima, 25 April 2026. https://eng.mizzima.com/2026/04/25/33484)

Myanmar and China: Both sides discuss to strengthen bilateral ties
On 26 April, Global TImes reported that Myanmar’s President U Min Aung Hlaing met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss strengthening bilateral relations. The Myanmar president said China remains Myanmar’s most important partner and reaffirmed support for the One-China policy. He expressed interest in increasing high-level exchanges, advancing the Myanmar-China Economic Corridor, and maintaining peace along the border. He also assured that Myanmar will not allow any activities harmful to China and will continue action against online scams and illegal activities, while ensuring the safety of Chinese projects and personnel. Wang Yi said China will continue to support Myanmar’s development, sovereignty, and efforts toward peace and stability. He stressed the importance of building a closer partnership and expanding cooperation, including tackling online fraud. The meeting reflects deepening ties between the two countries, especially in security, economic cooperation, and regional engagement. (“Myanmar president meets Chinese FM,” Global Times, 26 April 2026. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359773.shtml)

Myanmar and the EU: EU renews restrictive measures on Myanmar for an additional year
On 28 April, according to Mizzima, the Council of the European Union extended sanctions on Myanmar for another 12 months, until 30 April 2027. The decision reflects ongoing concerns over democratic backsliding and human rights violations since the 2021 coup, with measures targeting 105 individuals and 22 entities through asset freezes and travel bans. Observers note that additional restrictions remain, including arms embargoes, export controls, and suspension of cooperation with the Tatmadaw. The EU has also halted financial assistance to avoid legitimising the regime. The move highlights sustained international pressure while raising questions about the effectiveness of sanctions.
(“European Union prolongs sanctions against Myanmar amid ongoing crisis,” Mizzima, 28 April 2026. https://eng.mizzima.com/2026/04/28/33595)

Myanmar: Suu Kyi meets legal team after years of detention 
On 01 May, Reuters reported that Myanmar’s former leader Aung San Suu Kyi is expected to meet her lawyers over the weekend after being moved to house arrest in Naypyidaw. Her legal team said the meeting will help discuss her case and provide her with basic items like food and medicine. Suu Kyi has been in detention since the military took power in a coup in February 2021. Since then there has been ongoing conflict in the country and her location and condition were not clearly known for a long time. This development comes as international pressure grows on Myanmar’s military government to release political prisoners and return to talks. The meeting is seen as a small step that allows her to reconnect with her legal team after years of limited contact. 
(“Detained Myanmar ex-leader Suu Kyi to meet legal team this weekend,” Reuters, 01 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/detained-myanmar-ex-leader-suu-kyi-meet-legal-team-this-weekend-2026-05-01/)

Myanmar: Rising Chinese influence and border concerns amid political crisis, says Irrawady
On 01 May, according to The Irrawaddy, developments indicate growing Chinese involvement in Myanmar during the ongoing political crisis. China continues engagement with the military-backed administration, particularly in economic and strategic sectors, reflecting increased dependence on Beijing. Concerns have also emerged over gradual territorial encroachment along the China–Myanmar border, where temporary arrangements are becoming more permanent. Observers note that these trends highlight the junta’s reliance on external support amid international isolation. The development raises concerns about sovereignty, shifting regional dynamics, and the long-term implications of China’s expanding role in Myanmar’s affairs.
(“China’s longstanding ties with Aung San Suu Kyi and concerns over gradual border encroachment,” The Irrawaddy, 01 May 2026. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/china-briefing/daw-aung-san-suu-kyi-chinas-old-friend-territorial-creep-on-the-border-and-more-2.html)

SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Nepal: Opposition party finally elects its parliamentary party leader
On 28 April, according to The Kathmandu Post, Nepal’s Constitutional Council regained full composition after the Nepali Congress elected Bishma Raj Angdembe as its parliamentary party leader, ending an eight-month vacancy that stalled key constitutional appointments. The council, chaired by the prime minister, is responsible for recommending officials, including the Chief Justice, the Chief Election Commissioner, and members of various constitutional bodies, many of which remain unfilled. The process to appoint a new Chief Justice has now advanced, following the retirement of Prakash Man Singh Raut, with Acting Chief Justice Sapana Pradhan Malla among six recommended candidates. The council had been inactive due to political instability, including the dissolution of Parliament after the Gen Z movement. Although elections on 05 March restored its membership, legal ambiguities persist. Previous ordinances governing council decisions lapsed without approval, leaving decision-making procedures in doubt. The government is now preparing new ordinances to resolve these issues and restore functionality.
("Constitutional Council regains full strength after eight months," The Kathmandu Post, 28 April 2026. https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2026/04/28/constitutional-council-regains-full-strength-after-eight-months)

Nepal: Beijing and Kathmandu to strengthen infrastructure partnership; signs a five-year deal to operate Kathmandu's first modern road tunnel
On 30 April, according to the Himalayan, China pledged a grant of NPR 11 billion for the second phase of the Kathmandu Ring Road expansion project, with an agreement signed on Wednesday between Minister Sunil Lamsal and Chinese Ambassador Zhang Maoming. The project will expand the Ring Road section from Kalanki to Basundhara, following the completion of the first phase from Koteshwor to Kalanki. At the signing ceremony, Lamsal assured smooth implementation and timely resolution of challenges, while highlighting north–south connectivity as a key government priority. He also expressed confidence in increased Chinese investment in infrastructure. Ambassador Zhang noted that more Chinese investors are willing to invest, provided a favourable investment environment is ensured, signalling continued interest in supporting infrastructure development.
("China to provide Rs 11 billion grant for Ring Road expansion," The Himalayan Times, 30 April 2026. https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/china-to-provide-rs-11-billion-grant-for-ring-road-expansion)

On 30 April, according to The Kathmandu Post, the Nagdhunga–Sisnekhola tunnel is set to open within three months after the government signed a five-year operation and maintenance agreement with Yusin–ART JV, a China-Nepal joint venture. The project, now 98 per cent complete, will operate around the clock, with around 150 personnel undergoing training before deployment. Trial runs, including during the monsoon, are planned ahead of full-scale operation. The 2.8 kilometre tunnel, built by Hazama Ando Corporation, includes a parallel emergency passage and a 2.3 kilometre access road. The total cost stands at NPR 22 billion, funded partly by a Japanese concessional loan.
("China-Nepal joint venture to manage Nagdhunga tunnel," The Kathmandu Post, 30 April 2026. https://kathmandupost.com/national/2026/04/30/china-nepal-joint-venture-to-manage-nagdhunga-tunnel)

Bangladesh: Dhaka seeks to deepen ties with Belarus
On 30 April, according to the Dhaka Tribune, Bangladesh expressed interest in expanding bilateral relations with Belarus, focusing on trade, investment, and technological cooperation. Officials highlighted opportunities to enhance collaboration in sectors such as industry, agriculture, and energy. The discussions emphasised improving market access, increasing trade volumes, and strengthening economic engagement between the two countries. Both sides reiterated their commitment to building long-term partnerships that support mutual development and regional economic cooperation.
("Bangladesh keen to deepen ties with Belarus across sectors," Dhaka Tribune, 30 April 2026. https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/foreign-affairs/409023/bangladesh-keen-to-deepen-ties-with-belarus-across)

Bangladesh: Biman signs 3.7 billion dollars deal with Boeing for 14 aircraft
On 01 May, according to The Daily Star, Biman Bangladesh Airlines signed a deal worth around 3.7 billion dollars with Boeing to acquire 14 new aircraft as part of its largest fleet expansion. The agreement includes Ten Boeing 787 Dreamliners and Four Boeing 737 MAX jets, aimed at modernising the airline’s fleet and expanding international connectivity. Officials stated that the fuel-efficient aircraft will enhance operational efficiency and passenger capacity. The move is also expected to strengthen Bangladesh’s aviation sector and support growing demand for air travel.
("Biman signs $3.7b deal with Boeing for 14 jets," The Daily Star, 01 May 2026. 
https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/biman-signs-37b-deal-boeing-14-jets-4165231 )

Maldives: Beijing and Male to join hands to develop 500 housing units in Male
On 25 April, according to The Sun, the Maldives and China are engaged in discussions to develop 500 housing units as a welfare measure. According to the Maldives' housing ministry, the project will be financed through an interest-free facility extended by the government of China. The ministry also stated that bilateral meetings have been held to discuss additional grant aid projects. 
(“Maldives and China discuss interest-free loan to develop 500 flats in Male,” The Sun, 25 April 2026. https://english.sun.mv/104875)

Sri Lanka: Vietnamese president to address Sri Lankan Parliament
On April 28, the Daily Mirror reported that the President of Vietnam. And the leader of the Communist Party, To Lam, is scheduled to address the Sri Lankan parliament on May 8, as per the office of the Leader of the House. The Vietnamese President is to undertake an official visit to Sri Lanka from May 7 to 8 to strengthen bilateral ties. 
(“Vietnamese President to address Sri Lankan Parliament on May 8,” Daily Mirror, 28 April 2026. https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/Vietnamese-President-to-address-Sri-Lankan-Parliament-on-May-8/108-338938)

Sri Lanka: President signals intensified anti-corruption drive
On 01 May, Daily Mirror reported that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced a crackdown on corruption and organised crime, with several major cases progressing through strengthened investigative and judicial mechanisms. Authorities have reinforced institutions such as the Criminal Investigation Department and also the anti-corruption commission to accelerate probes. The administration expects multiple case outcomes this year, emphasising on accountability across political and public sectors.  
(“President signals intensified anti-corruption drive, targets major cases,” Daily Mirror, 01 May 2026. https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/President-signals-intensified-anti-corruption-drive-targets-major-cases/108-339241)

Pakistan: Iranian envoy lands in Islamabad; US officials to join soon
On 25 April, according to the News International and Dawn, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad for high-level consultations, even as uncertainty persisted over a second round of talks between the United States and Iran. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said he looked forward to “meaningful engagements”. At the same time, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, clarified that “no meeting was planned” with Washington, adding that Iran would instead convey its position to Pakistan. Despite this, the White House said envoys would travel to Islamabad for “direct talks”, highlighting deep contradictions as Pakistan continues mediation efforts following an inconclusive first round earlier this month.
(“Iranian delegation led by FM Araghchi lands in Islamabad; US officials to also arrive in Pakistan,” Dawn, 24 April 2026)

Pakistan: Islamabad launches first land route to Kyrgyzstan via China corridor 
On 30 April, Dawn reported that Pakistan Customs launched the first export from the Karachi Export Processing Zone (EPZ) to Kyrgyzstan via the TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) land route through Sost Dry Port and China, opening a new Central Asian corridor. The inaugural consignment, valued at USD 59,314 and weighing 23.9 tonnes, contained assorted oil, tea, henna, herbs, cream, and soap from Hemani Group, cleared electronically through the Pakistan Single Window system. The route comes as the Chaman and Torkham border crossings with Afghanistan have remained closed since October 2025 due to security concerns and cross-border militancy, pushing exporters to route shipments through Iran and China to reach Central Asian markets. The government has also recently notified six transit routes through Iran to expand regional trade options. Separately, Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan met Tajikistan's Ambassador Sharifzoda Yusuf Toir to discuss measures to enhance bilateral trade and transit connectivity.
("Pakistan opens land route to Kyrgyzstan," Dawn, 30 April 2026)

Pakistan: Trump administration backs US firm's USD 2.4 billion investment proposal in Islamabad’s airport security system
On 30 April, The Express Tribune reported that the President Donald Trump administration has backed a USD 2.4 billion investment offer from Securiport, an American firm, to install advanced security systems at major Pakistani airports to detect criminals and transnational threats. Securiport has proposed funding all upfront investment in deploying its system and has offered to recover its costs over the contract term via a government-mandated passenger security surcharge model. As per the proposal, the American firm would also establish a subsidiary in Pakistan through which it will train over 1,000 Pakistani citizens in these modern technologies. The proposal aligns with Pakistan's efforts to install automated border control systems, known as E-gates. However, those efforts have recently become controversial due to the decision to award the contract to a state-owned enterprise by invoking the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA) direct contracting rules. The IMF has already asked Pakistan to withdraw the PPRA rules that allow direct contracting to state-owned enterprises as part of its conditions under the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment report. 
(“Trump backs US investment of $2.4b,” The Express Tribune, 30 April 2026)

Afghanistan: Uzbekistan expands rail infrastructure to strengthen regional trade connectivity
On 24 April, according to Afghanistan International, Uzbekistan Railways announced the construction of a 1,000 metre branch line at Naibabad station on the Hairatan-Mazar-i-Sharif railway to improve cargo movement and reduce congestion. The upgrade is expected to increase station capacity, accelerate loading and unloading processes and minimise delays along a key trade corridor linking Central Asia to South Asia. The route is increasingly used for freight flows from countries including Russia, Kazakhstan and China towards markets in Pakistan and India. The project comes amid increasing trade volumes between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, with the route gaining importance for regional transit.
(“Uzbekistan Expands Afghan Rail Line To Boost Trade,” Afghanistan International, 24 April 2026. https://www.afintl.com/en/202604248842 )

Afghanistan: SCO members discuss revival of Contact Group and reaffirm support for neutral state
On 25 April, according to Afghanistan International, deputy foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation met in Moscow to discuss Afghanistan and broader regional developments, emphasising that the country should remain free from war, terrorism and narcotics. Russia’s foreign ministry stated that participants supported an independent, neutral and peaceful Afghanistan and reviewed options for resuming engagement mechanisms, including the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group, which has remained inactive since the Taliban’s return to power. The meeting also addressed prospects for pragmatic dialogue with the Taliban and discussed regional security concerns, including tensions with Iran. Calls for reviving the Contact Group have previously been supported by Vladimir Putin and Ishaq Dar.
(“SCO Calls For Peaceful Afghanistan, Revives Contact Group Talks,” Afghanistan International, 25 April 2026. https://www.afintl.com/en/202604258508)

Afghanistan: Floods affect over 73,000 people as UN reports rising humanitarian risks
On 30 April, according to Afghanistan International, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said recent floods in Afghanistan have affected at least 73,300 people, with hundreds reported dead or injured, though exact figures were not specified. Preliminary data indicate that up to 7,500 homes have been damaged or destroyed, while over 14,000 people face risks of gender based violence in affected areas. The agency also warned that floodwaters have displaced unexploded ordnance and mines, threatening around 2.7 million people. Between 17 April and 26 April, extensive agricultural land was destroyed, increasing risks of food insecurity, disease and displacement. OCHA said urgent needs have been identified for 56,900 people, with around 31,000 reached through emergency assistance, while assessments across multiple districts remain ongoing.
(“Floods In Afghanistan Leave Hundreds Dead Or Injured, Says UN,” Afghanistan International, 30 April 2026. https://www.afintl.com/en/202604301080)

Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions
Afghanistan and Pakistan: Taliban mortar strikes hit Chaman and Bajaur amid escalating cross-border clashes
On 28 April, according to Afghanistan International, local sources said Taliban forces fired mortars from Afghan territory into Pakistan’s Chaman in Balochistan and Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing at least one person and injuring another. The strikes come amid renewed escalation in cross-border exchanges following a period of relative calm. Earlier, Pakistani forces were reported to have carried out artillery attacks on Asadabad in Kunar, including areas near Sayed Jamaluddin Afghan University, with casualty figures rising to seven killed and 75 injured. Additional exchanges were reported in Spin Boldak in Kandahar, where Pakistani forces fired mortars at several villages, followed by Taliban fire on border posts. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of backing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, an allegation the Taliban deny.
(“Taliban Forces Strike Chaman In Balochistan, Bajaur In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” Afghanistan International, 28 April 2026. https://www.afintl.com/en/202604282942 )

Afghanistan: Taliban defence chief chairs security meeting amid rising border tensions
On 30 April, according to Afghanistan International, Mullah Yaqoob chaired a Taliban security commission meeting to review the country’s defence and security situation, with reports from various provinces presented to the members. Taliban affiliated Bakhtar News Agency said decisions were taken to address existing challenges in a timely and effective manner, though no specific details were disclosed. The meeting comes amid escalating cross-border tensions, with Pakistani sources stating that their forces carried out operations in Chaman, destroying Taliban posts and vehicles in response to alleged aggression. Earlier, Pakistani forces were also reported to have conducted strikes in Kunar, including areas in the provincial capital. 
(“Taliban Defence Chief Holds Security Meet As Border Tensions With Pakistan Rise,” Afghanistan International, 30 April 2026. https://www.afintl.com/en/202604302027 )

Afghanistan: Informal Istanbul talks conclude with draft agreement on militant groups
On 01 May, according to Afghanistan International, sources said informal talks between representatives close to the Taliban and Pakistan in Istanbul concluded with a general agreement on issues related to militant groups, with the support of Turkiye. The discussions focused on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State, with negotiators proposing that the Taliban designate TTP as a terrorist organisation while Pakistan would acknowledge the presence of Islamic State within its territory. Sources said a draft agreement has been finalised, though differences remain over formally recognising TTP as a terrorist group and the text has not been made public. It remains unclear whether the Taliban administration will accept the outcome, although the talks involved a non-Taliban delegation approved by both sides. Previous formal rounds of talks in Doha, Istanbul, Riyadh and Urumqi had not produced results.
(“Informal Taliban-Pakistan Talks In Türkiye End With Agreement,” Afghanistan International, 01 May 2026. https://www.afintl.com/en/202605010692 )

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
The War in Gaza: Palestinians vote in symbolic local body elections, marking the first electoral process in two decades
On 25 April, Palestinians in central Gaza voted in the first local body elections since the outbreak of the war in 2023, marking the first electoral process in the enclave in 20 years. The elections were held in the city of Deir-Balah, which is one of the regions relatively less devastated by the war, with the least population displacement and Israeli occupation. The voting is largely symbolic as official decision-making in the enclave is carried out with Israeli approval. The polls are being organized by the Central Elections Commission, an independent PA-affiliated body that runs elections in Palestinian territories. Palestinians will vote for independent, apolitical electoral lists rather than individual candidates, with four groups contesting. Under a new electoral law introduced by the Palestinian Authority, the minimum age for candidates has been reduced to 18, and a quota has been established, reserving 25 per cent of seats for women.  The Palestinian Authority expressed hope that the inclusion of the Gazan city of Deir-Balah would bolster its claim to authority, Reuters reported. Several Palestinian factions are boycotting the elections in protest against the Palestinian Authority’s requirement that candidates endorse its existing agreements, including recognition of the state of Israel. Meanwhile, Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly two decades, has not officially fielded any candidates. 
(“Palestinian local elections give some Gazans first chance to vote in years,” Reuters, 25 April 2026. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-local-elections-give-some-gazans-chance-vote-first-time-years-2026-04-25/)

The War in Gaza: Palestinian Authority sweeps victory in municipal elections; Voter turnout stands at 23 per cent in Gaza and 56 per cent in the West Bank
On 26 April, loyalists of President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) won most races in Palestinian municipal elections. The symbolic elections marked the first electoral exercise in the enclave since 2006, and recorded a low voter turnout of 23 per cent in Gaza and 56 per cent in the West Bank. Hamas had not officially fielded any candidates in the election and factions affiliated with the group also failed to secure a victory. Chairman of the Central Elections Commission ?Rami al?Hamdallah stated that ballot boxes and voting equipment did not make it to some parts of the enclave due to Israeli restrictions. 
(“Palestinian leader's loyalists win local elections, including some seats in Gaza,” Reuters, 26 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-leaders-loyalists-win-local-elections-including-some-gaza-2026-04-26/)

The War in Gaza: Israel intercepts second Sumud flotilla carrying aid to Gaza
On 30 April, Israel intercepted aid ships bound for Gaza in international waters near Greece in a move that the flotilla organisers denounced as an “escalation of Israel’s impunity.  The ships were part of a second Global Sumud flotilla that sailed from the Spanish port of Barcelona on 12 April. Israel's foreign ministry called the flotilla organisers "professional provocateurs" and said that its forces acted lawfully. Turkey condemned the interception as a clear violation of international law that endangered navigational safety and said it would take steps to support the flotilla.
(“Israel intercepts Gaza aid ships in international waters, organisers decry move,” Reuters, 30 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-begins-intercepting-gaza-aid-ships-far-shores-army-radio-says-2026-04-29/)

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Mali: Attacks and coup claims highlight security challenges and Russia's role
On 27-28 April, The Guardian and Al Jazeera reported that Mali faced a series of coordinated attacks by militant and separatist groups raising concerns about the country’s security situation and Russia’s role. Armed groups targeted towns and military bases, leading to heavy fighting and instability, and forcing Russian backed forces to withdraw from some areas. The attacks also resulted in the death of Mali’s defence minister highlighting serious security challenges. During this period, Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita reappeared after being out of sight for several days which had raised concerns about stability. Russia, a key ally of Mali’s military government, said it helped stop what it described as a coup attempt linked to the violence. Goita later stated that the situation was under control and that operations against armed groups would continue. Experts said the attacks raise doubts about how effective Russia is in supporting Mali’s security and could affect its wider influence in Africa. The developments highlight ongoing instability and challenges in controlling militant threats in the country.
 (“Mali military leader Goita emerges as Russia declares it halted coup,” Al Jazeera, 28 April 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/malis-military-leader-goita-emerges-as-russia-declares-it-halted-coup   
“Mali’s militant attacks expose limits of Putin’s power in Africa,” The Guardian, 27 April 2026. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/27/mali-militant-attacks-putin-russia-africa)

Mali: Russia’s Africa Corps withdraws from Kidal amid escalating violence
On 27 April, Reuters reported that Russia’s Africa Corps confirmed its withdrawal from the northern Malian town of Kidal following intense fighting. The paramilitary group, which operates under Russia’s defence ministry and supports the Malian government, stated that the withdrawal was carried out alongside Malian army forces and in coordination with national leadership. The withdrawal occurred amid a surge in coordinated attacks across Mali by armed groups, including an al-Qaeda-linked organisation and a Tuareg-led rebel movement. These attacks targeted multiple locations, including Kidal, Bamako, Gao, and Mopti, involving explosions and sustained gunfire. The escalation also included high-level casualties, notably the killing of Mali’s defence minister during the wave of attacks. The United Nations condemned the violence and called for an international response, citing concerns over worsening instability. ("Mali defence minister killed in major weekend assault,"Reuters, April 202;
"Russia's Africa Corps confirms withdrawal from Mali's Kidal,"Reuters, April 27 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/gunfire-persists-mali-town-un-urges-international-response-after-attacks-2026-04-26/
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/russias-africa-corps-confirms-withdrawal-malis-kidal-2026-04-27/)

Mali: Al Qaeda-linked insurgents urge uprising and call for Sharia rule
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the Al Qaeda-linked group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has urged Malians to rise up against the military-led government and move towards the establishment of Sharia law, following a series of coordinated attacks across the country. In a statement issued in French, the group called on “all sincere patriots” to unite against what it described as a terrorist junta, extending its call to political actors, members of the armed forces and broader sections of society. The statement follows the 25 April assaults carried out jointly with the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), which targeted multiple military positions, including areas close to the capital Bamako, and resulted in the capture of Kidal. Reports also suggest that JNIM has set up checkpoints along key routes which appears to be an attempt to consolidate its presence. Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita stated that the situation is under control and vowed to neutralise the insurgent forces linked to the attacks.
(“Al Qaeda-linked insurgents establish check points around capital, call on Malians to rise up,” Reuters, 01 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-linked-insurgents-call-malians-rise-up-establish-sharia-law-2026-05-01/)

Madagascar: Madagascar expels French diplomat amid growing tensions
On 29 April, Africa News reported that Madagascar expelled a French diplomat, accusing them of involvement in alleged destabilisation activities, in a move highlighting rising tensions with former colonial power France. Authorities summoned Ambassador Arnaud Guillois before declaring an embassy staff member persona non grata, though details of the accusations were not disclosed. The development comes amid renewed political uncertainty under interim leader Michael Randrianirina, following protests that ousted former president Andry Rajoelina last October. Demonstrations have since resumed in Antananarivo, with Amnesty International warning of a “climate of fear” due to arrests, while the government alleges foreign involvement in unrest and a reported assassination plot. (“Madagascar expels French diplomat amid rising tensions,” Africa News, 29 April 2026)

Ghana: Ghana exits US aid talks over privacy concerns
On 29 April, Africa News reported that Ghana withdrew from negotiations on a multi-year US aid package after rejecting Washington’s alleged demand for access to citizens’ personal data, with a source saying the talks turned “hostile” as pressure increased. The proposed deal, reportedly worth USD 109 million over five years, was expected to fund programmes targeting HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, though the US State Department declined to confirm details. The breakdown comes amid broader concerns over new bilateral agreements under the US “America First Global Health Strategy” following the dismantling of USAID, with countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia rejecting similar proposals and Kenya suspending its deal over data-sharing concerns. (“Ghana quits US aid deal talks over privacy concerns,” Africa News, 29 April 2026)

Sudan: Child Alert issued by UNICEF as children face extreme hunger and violence amid the civil war
On 28 April, Reuters reported that children in the Darfur region of Sudan are facing severe humanitarian conditions, with the United Nations warning that they have reached a critical threshold. UNICEF issued a “Child Alert,” a rare mechanism used to signal extreme crises. This marks the first such alert for Darfur in two decades. Approximately five million children across the region are affected by extreme deprivation as the civil war enters its fourth year. The crisis includes widespread violence, displacement, and acute hunger. Children are being killed, injured, and forced to flee their homes, while access to basic services has been severely disrupted. Homes, schools, and healthcare facilities have been damaged or destroyed, further limiting access to essential support systems. Conditions are particularly severe in areas such as North Darfur, where malnutrition has reached critical levels and violence continues to escalate. Reports indicate that children are also exposed to recruitment by armed groups and other forms of exploitation. Despite the scale of the crisis, humanitarian assistance remains limited. UNICEF has highlighted the urgency of increased international support as the situation continues to deteriorate across the region. 
("Children at 'breaking point' in Darfur as they face extreme hunger and violence, UN says," Reuters, April 28 2026,
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/children-breaking-point-darfur-they-face-extreme-hunger-violence-un-says-2026-04-28/
"Children in Darfur have reached a breaking point,” UNICEF, April 28 2026, https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/children-darfur-have-reached-breaking-point)

The DRC: Congo launches mining security force
On 27 April, Africa News reported that the Democratic Republic of Congo announced the creation of a paramilitary guard to secure its mining sector, backed by funding from the United States and United Arab Emirates. The unit, led by the General Inspectorate of Mines, will begin with 2,500-3,000 personnel and expand to over 20,000 by 2028, tasked with protecting mine sites, escorting mineral shipments and strengthening oversight. Officials said the initiative aims to curb illegal mining and improve transparency in a sector that produces around 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt and holds major reserves of copper, lithium and coltan. The move comes amid ongoing conflict in eastern Congo and growing global competition over critical mineral supply chains. (“DRC creates paramilitary mining security unit backed by US and UAE funding,” Africa News, 27 April 2026)

The DRC: US imposes sanctions on Congo's former President Joseph Kabila 
On 30 April, Reuters reported that the United States placed sanctions on former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila saying he supported the Rwanda backed M23 rebel group and added to instability in eastern Congo. The US said Kabila helped the group financially and encouraged some soldiers to leave the national army. The conflict in eastern Congo has caused many deaths and forced large numbers of people to leave their homes. The sanctions are part of US efforts to reduce violence and support peace between Congo and Rwanda. Under the sanctions any assets linked to Kabila in the US will be frozen and he will not be able to use the US financial system. Congo’s government supported the decision while Kabila denied the claims. This move shows ongoing international concern over the conflict in eastern Congo and efforts to bring stability to the region. (“US imposes sanctions on former Congo President Joseph Kabila,” Reuters, 30 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-imposes-sanctions-former-congo-president-joseph-kabila-2026-04-30/)

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: Washington and Riyadh facilitate a major prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia
On 24 April 2026, Reuters reported that Ukraine and Russia carried out a prisoner exchange where each side released 193 prisoners of war. The deal was helped by the United States and the United Arab Emirates. In total, 386 people were freed, making it one of the notable humanitarian steps in the ongoing war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the exchange was important because it brought many citizens back home. The released Ukrainians included soldiers, border guards, and police officers. Some of them were injured or had faced legal cases while in captivity. When they returned, many were emotional and reunited with their families. Some were seen wrapped in Ukrainian flags, expressing relief after spending years in detention. One soldier said he felt happy to be free after three years. Even though the conflict continues, such prisoner exchanges are one of the few areas where both sides still cooperate. (“Ukraine, Russia swap 193 prisoners of war each in US, UAE-facilitated exchange,” Reuters, 24 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-swap-193-prisoners-war-each-us-uae-facilitated-exchange-2026-04-24/)

The War in Ukraine: Kyiv may need to cede territory for peace with Russia and EU membership, says Germany’s Chancellor Merz
On 27 April, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Ukraine must cede control over some of its territory to achieve a peace deal with Russia, and for its membership in the European Union. "At some point, Ukraine will sign a ceasefire agreement; at some point, hopefully, a peace treaty with Russia. Then it may be that part of Ukraine's territory is no longer Ukrainian," Merz said. Merz cautioned against expectations of swift EU accession, that membership even by 2028 might be unrealistic despite Kyiv’s status as an official EU candidate. Ukraine cannot join while at war and must first meet strict criteria, including on rule of law and anti-corruption, he emphasised. He proposed interim steps such as granting Ukraine observer status in EU institutions, an idea he said received broad backing from European leaders at last week’s Cyprus summit attended by Zelensky. The EU also approved a EUR 90 billion loan covering most of Ukraine’s needs through 2027.
(“Merz suggests Ukraine may have to accept territorial loss to help pave way for EU membership,” Reuters, 27 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merz-suggests-ukraine-may-have-accept-territorial-loss-help-pave-way-eu-2026-04-27/)

The War in Ukraine: Kyiv seeks weapon support from Tokyo following relaxations in export-restrictions
On 01 May, Reuters, in an exclusive report, revealed that Japan’s easing of its weapons-export restrictions opens the door to talks that could eventually lead to Tokyo supplying military equipment to support Ukraine. Kyiv's ambassador to Japan, Yurii Lutovinov, stated that the move was “a very big step forward,” and that “Indo-Pacific and the European continent are inseparable from the point of view of our security." Lutovinov stated that Ukraine is proceeding cautiously given Japan’s sensitivities around defence exports. In the near term, he suggested Tokyo could help fund the development of an air-defence system to reduce reliance on scarce US-made Patriot missiles. He added that talks are also under way on Japan contributing to NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), which finances the purchase of U.S. military equipment for Kyiv.
(“Exclusive: Ukraine sees path to getting Japanese arms after Tokyo eases export rules,” Reuters, 01 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-sees-path-japanese-arms-after-tokyo-eases-export-rules-2026-04-30/)

Belarus and US: Potential prisoner releases discussed amid ongoing diplomatic engagement
On 28 April, Reuters reported that the United States special envoy indicated that Belarus may release additional prisoners within the next month, as part of continued diplomatic engagement between the two countries. US envoy John Coale stated that efforts are ongoing to secure further releases, following a recent prisoner exchange involving five individuals, including a Polish-Belarusian journalist. Coale noted that while sanctions relief was not directly tied to the latest exchange, future releases could contribute to the easing of restrictions imposed on Belarus. He also indicated that negotiations remain active, with plans to continue discussions aimed at facilitating additional outcomes. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has released hundreds of detainees in recent years. Human rights groups estimate that more than 830 political prisoners remain in detention. Discussions have also included potential steps such as reopening diplomatic channels, including the possibility of restoring a US embassy presence in Minsk.
("US envoy says Belarus may free more prisoners in next month," Reuters, April 28, 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-envoy-says-belarus-may-free-more-prisoners-next-month-2026-04-28/)

AMERICAS THIS WEEK
The US and Venezuela: US eases sanctions on Maduro to allow payment of his legal fees in drug case
On 25 April, Reuters reported that the United States had agreed to ease the sanctions on Venezuela to allow the government to pay legal fees for its former president, Nicolás Maduro, ensuring the continuity of his drug trafficking trial.  Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured by US forces earlier in 2026 in Caracas. They were captured on charges of narcoterrorism and have pleaded not guilty to the charges. The dispute initially emerged after sanctions blocked the payments from the Venezuelan government. However, defence lawyers argued that this violated Maduro’s constitutional right to a fair legal representation. A US judge has also questioned the justification for restricting payments, emphasising the vitality of legal representation rights for the accused. Prosecutors, however, have defended these sanctions on grounds of national security. 
(“US to let Venezuela pay Maduro’s lawyer in drug trafficking case,” Reuters, 25 April 2026. 
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-let-venezuela-pay-maduros-lawyer-drug-trafficking-case-2026-04-25/)

Mexico: President Sheinbaum warns the US over its role in anti-drug operations
On 27 April, Reuters reported that Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said US involvement in anti-drug operations in Mexico should not happen again without proper approval. The warning came after an incident in the state of Chihuahua, where two US officials and two Mexican officials died in a car crash after an operation. Sheinbaum said the Mexican government was not informed about the role of the US personnel. She stressed that any foreign involvement must follow Mexico’s laws and respect its sovereignty. Mexico has sent a message to the United States asking that such incidents should not be repeated. While Mexico supports cooperation with the US against drug cartels, it does not allow foreign agents to take part directly in operations inside the country. The incident shows ongoing concerns in Mexico about foreign involvement and the need to protect national control over security matters. 
(“Mexico’s Sheinbaum warns US involvement in anti drug operation not to be repeated,” Reuters, 27 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iranian-foreign-minister-heads-russia-trump-says-call-us-negotiate-2026-04-27/)

The US and UK: King Charles highlights partnership with US in Congress speech
On 28-29 April, The Guardian and The Hindu reported that King Charles III addressed the US Congress during his state visit and highlighted the strong relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States. He said both countries share common values and have worked together for a long time, even during difficult periods. He also noted that the world is facing a time of uncertainty and stressed the need for closer cooperation. The King spoke about working together on global issues such as security, climate change and the economy, and stressed the importance of alliances like NATO and support for Ukraine. At the same time, he made indirect references to differences between the two countries, especially over the Iran war and trade issues. The speech came amid political tensions, including differences between US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Despite this, his message focused on unity and continued cooperation, showing efforts to maintain strong ties while managing differences. (“UK and US always find ways to come together, King Charles to tell Congress,” The Guardian, 28 April 2026). https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/apr/28/king-charles-speech-us-congress-state-visit“King Charles highlights U.S.-U.K. bond in speech to Congress noting ‘times of great uncertainty’,” The Hindu, 29 April 2026).https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/king-charles-highlights-us-uk-bond-in-speech-to-congress-noting-times-of-great-uncertainty/article70918090.ece

About the authors
Brighty Ann Sarah, Aishal Yousuf and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. 

Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair, Kirsten Wilfred Coelho, Rebecca Ann Oomen and Yesasvi Koganti are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

Glynnis Winona Beschi and Siddhi Halyur are undergraduate students at the Department of International Relations, Public Policy, Peace Studies and Journalism, St Joseph's University.

Nithin V is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Loyola College, Chennai.

Sreemaya Nair is an undergraduate student from the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St Joseph’s University 

Rakshitha B is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and Economics, Mount Carmel College, Bengaluru. 

Sreekanishkaa GK is a postgraduate student from the Department of Political Science, Kumaraguru College of liberal arts and Sciences, Coimbatore.

Ashwin R, Nishita Manoharan, Shrinidhi Senthivel and Shwetha R are undergraduate students from the Department of Political Science, Kumaraguru College of liberal arts and Sciences, Coimbatore.

Manik Dhawan is an undergraduate student from the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Chennai.

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha is an undergraduate student double majoring in BSc Clinical Psychology and BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru.

Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Femy Francis is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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