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Conflict Weekly 47
An assassination in Iran, Massacre in Nigeria and Suicide bombings in Afghanistan
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Conflict Weekly, 03 December 2020, Vol.1, No.47
Iran: Nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh assassinated by remote-controlled gun mounted on a car
In the news
On 27 November, Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Mahabadi was assassinated, east of Tehran. According to Iran's semi-official Fars News agency, the scientist's car was sprayed with bullets by a remote-controlled machine gun operating from an adjacent car.
Speaking at his funeral, Security chief Ali Shamkhani said the attackers "used electronic equipment." Tehran has alleged Israeli involvement in the assassination. Meanwhile, Iranian foreign minister Zarif warned of 'misinformation' over Mohsen's killing. He said a 'targeted misinformation campaign and psychological war' had commenced following the scientist's death.
Issues at large
First, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and Iran's nuclear program. During the early 2000s, Mohsen played a crucial role in the nuclear programme of Iran. Mohsen was a senior official in Iran's nuclear program and a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. Although the Iranian government insists that the country's nuclear pursuit is purely peaceful, Western suspicion led to crippling US sanctions aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Second, the Israel factor. Israel had previously accused the scientist of covertly helping Iran in developing nuclear weapons. Despite accusations, Israel has not publicly commented on its alleged role in the assassination. However, over the past decade, Israel has been linked to such attacks in Iran.
Third, discrepancies in the Iranian narrative. Although Iranian versions of the incident have substantially changed, the Iranian media currently maintains that Mohsen was killed using weapons "controlled by satellite" or a "remote-controlled machine gun". A report even quoted witnesses as saying "three to four individuals, who are said to have been terrorists, were killed". The exploding of a nearby Nissan pickup truck, during the attack, was also reported. On 30 November, head of the Supreme National Security Council Rear Admiral Shamkhani confirmed that it was a remote attack, using "special methods".
In perspective
First, the upcoming change in US leadership. With US Presidential candidate Joe Biden's victory, US' Middle Eastern allies are preparing for the end of the Trump-Jared Middle-east plan, which materialized the normalization of certain Middle Eastern states with Israel through the Abraham accords.
Second, the regional poles. As the regional apprehensions are becoming rife, the tussle between the conflicting blocs in the Middle East (Saudi and Iran) is worsening.
Nigeria: The Maiduguri massacre, an indicator of increasing State failure
In the news
On 1 December, the leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau claimed responsibility for the massacre of at least 78 farmers in the Zabarmari region of the Borno state in Nigeria. In the video, he says they attacked because a group of farmers had handed over one of their gunmen to the Nigerian Army.
Earlier in the day, the House of Representatives summoned President Muhammadu Buhari and demanded that he brief them about the security situation of the country. The House also adopted a motion of urgent national importance. Further, Senators asked the President to sack the military chiefs and called for an immediate investigation into alleged corruption in the country's security system.
On 28 November, unidentified assailants rounded up the farmers and slit their throats; several women were abducted. The incident which took place 20 kilometres away from the state capital, Maiduguri, has raised concerns in neighbouring areas, especially in the farming communities. Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have targeted labourers, farmers, herders suspecting that they pass on information to the military.
Issues at large
First, the worsening overall security situation in Nigeria. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2020, Nigeria ranks third among the countries most impacted by terrorism. Apart from terrorism that has paralyzed mostly the north and north-western regions, the security situation across the country is volatile due to worsening socioeconomic indicators. Ethnic clashes between farmers and herders and crimes resulting from poverty and food insecurity are on the rise.
Second, problems in governance and military approach. After the Maiduguri massacre, the Presidential spokesperson said the farmers had not obtained military clearance to be in the area. Later, he clarified that his statement was not an attempt to shift the blame to the farmers. However, there has been a similar lack of accountability from the government on security issues. On the other hand, lack of personnel, expertise and morale plague the military. After a spate of attacks against the military by the ISWAP and Boko Haram in 2019, the Nigerian army withdrew its troops from crucial positions. This left areas previously under military protection open to attacks by terrorist outfits. Further, the heavy-handedness of the military against the civilians has instilled a sense of resentment against the military in the minds of people.
Third, the lack of regional and international response. While the problem of terrorism has spilt over to neighbouring countries like Niger and Chad, there have been no sustained joint operations to address the issue. For example, in April 2020, the Chadian President announced the withdrawal of Chadian troops from joint operations against "armed groups active in the Lake Chad region and the Sahel." Internationally, the global war on terror has failed to bring any change to the security situation in Africa. Though the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has been brought down, the ideological influence has risen in other parts of the world, like in north and west Africa.
In perspective
Despite, numerous operations against terrorism like - Operation Lafiya Dole, Operation Safe Corridor - Nigeria has failed to reduce the impact of terrorism. President Buhari who won the elections in 2015 on the promise of improving the security situations has failed to bring about any change. Further, in October, the Nigerians' protest against the brutality of the Special Anti-Robbery Squads transitioned into a protest against the government and the rampant corruption. Unless President Buhari introduces substantial reform in the security system, it is unlikely that the public scrutiny will fade.
Afghanistan: Violence continues despite the Doha talks; suicide bombings leave 34 people dead
In the news
On 29 November, at least 34 people were killed in two separate suicide bombings that targeted a military base and a provincial chief. According to an official in Afghanistan's National Security Council, 31 soldiers were killed and 24 others wounded in eastern Ghazni province when an attacker drove a military vehicle full of explosives onto an army commando base before detonating it.
The other attack took place in southern Afghanistan, where a suicide bomber targeted the convoy of provincial council chief Attajan Haqbayat in Zubal, where at least three people were killed and 12 were injured, including children. No group claimed responsibility for the attacks. Further, these attacks took place as Afghan government representatives and the Taliban are holding talks in Qatar.
Issues at large
First, the steady rise of militancy and conflicts over the past couple of months. According to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) violence has surged across Afghanistan in recent months, with ground fighting causing the most casualties followed by suicide and roadside bomb attacks, targeted killings by the Taliban and air raids by Afghan troops. Further, the UNAMA report claimed that violence has also failed to slow since the beginning of talks between government negotiators and the Taliban that began in Doha. Earlier in November US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said attacks by anti-government forces have increased by 50 per cent in the third quarter of the year, compared to the second quarter.
Second, Afghan forces are still not capable of providing security. According, to the acting Defence Minister the Afghan forces have been independently conducting 96 per cent of operations, adding that they receive air support from international forces only when needed. Although Afghan officials have stated that their military is capable of fighting militant aggression once foreign troops leave the country, the Afghan forces still depend on outside support against such attacks. Further, the US's decision to withdraw only make it more difficult for the Afghan forces, who ultimately need to reduce their reliance on foreign support.
Third, the surge in Islamic State terrorist attacks in Afghanistan. There has been an alarming surge in IS terrorist attacks mostly targeting the civilian population in Afghanistan. The IS has carried out numerous high-profile attacks in Kabul in recent years, the most recent being the attack on the Kabul University. Although there have been many campaigns to curb this terrorist group, it still maintains capable terrorist cells in cities like Kabul, protected by secure messaging apps and careful communication with outside leadership.
In perspective
First, the blame game continues with no one held responsibly. The government has blamed the Taliban for the attacks, but the Taliban has denied responsibility. This leaves the question of who is behind these attacks and for what reason. Further, although IS has claimed responsibility for few of the attacks that have taken place over the last weeks it is still not clear if they are solely responsible for these attacks.
Second, the inability of the intra- Afghan talks to prevent such attacks. Although both sides have stated that they had resolved most issues on how the negotiations should be conducted, the question of reduction of violence is yet to be addressed. Further, the US withdrawal of troops as violence continues rise is likely to further complicate the intra- Afghan Talks.
From around the world
Peace and Conflict from Southeast and East Asia
China-Australia: PM Scott Morrison demands apology from the Chinese government for "repugnant" image on Twitter
On 30 November, Australia demanded an apology from China for posting a fake picture on its government Twitter account that depicted an Australian soldier murdering an Afghan child. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Beijing should be "utterly ashamed" for sharing the "repugnant" image. The demand for apology comes amid escalating political and economic tensions between the two countries. The image made reference to a report published earlier this month that alleged 25 Australian soldiers were involved in the murders of 39 Afghan civilians and prisoners between 2009 and 2013. The bilateral relations between Australia and China have rapidly deteriorated in 2020 after Australia called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic and in recent months, China imposed a series of economic blows, including tariffs on Australian imports including wine, barley and beef.
Australia: "To partner with the US to develop hypersonic missile," says Defence Minister
On 1 December, the Defence Minister Linda Reynolds said, Australia will jointly develop hypersonic cruise missiles with the US in an attempt to counter China and Russia which are developing similar weapons. "We will continue to invest in advanced capabilities to give the Australian Defence Force more options to deter aggression against Australia's interests," Reynolds said in a statement. Earlier this year Australia had set aside up to 9.3 billion Australian dollars for high-speed, long-range missile defence systems, including hypersonic research. Australia said in July it would boost defense spending by 40 per cent over the next decade to acquire longer-range strike capabilities across air, sea and land. The decision by Canberra could now be viewed by China as an attempt to broaden the tension in military arenas which also parallels Australia's expanding strategies in the Indo-Pacific region.
Thailand: Prime Minister found not guilty, favours the constitutional court ruling
On 2 December, the constitutional court in Thailand voted unanimously in favour of its Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha with regard to a conflict-of-interest case filed by the opposition leaders. Prayuth was accused of remaining in military housing despite his retirement from the army in 2014. Prayuth, in his defence, has reiterated that he needed to stay there for security reasons. The court said the former army chief's stay in the residence was in line with the army's rules, and the safety. "The plaintiff did not commit acts that constituted conflicts of interest. He did not seek personal gains, whether directly or indirectly, nor breach ethics. His ministerial post therefore does not end according to the constitution," ruled the court. The court's decision comes amid months of protests to demand Prayuth's removal - a call he has resisted.
Hong Kong: Joshua Wong and three prominent pro-democracy leaders get 13 months jail term
On 2 December, pro-democracy leaders in Hong Kong, Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam have been sentenced to a 13-months jail term over an unlawful anti-government rally in 2019. The sentencing is one of the toughest and most high-profile ruling for an opposition figure this year and solidifies, as some critics say, Beijing-backed government's intense crackdown on Hong Kong's opposition and chipping away freedoms guaranteed after the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997. Reacting to the court ruling, Britain's foreign minister Dominic Raab urged Hong Kong and Beijing authorities to stop their campaigns to stifle the opposition.
Cambodia: Mass trial of opposition leader and activist begins
On 27 November, a court in Cambodia began hearing the cases of nearly 130 government critics and opponents charged with treason for taking part in nonviolent political activities over the past three years. Only 33 defendants attended the court session. Most of the accused are former members or supporters of the disbanded Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). As the sole opposition party in Parliament, it had been expected to build a challenge to Prime Minister Hun Sen's ruling Cambodian People's Party in the 2018 general election. But in late 2017, Hun Sen launched a clampdown on his opponents and the CNRP was forced by the high court to disband and its lawmakers removed from Parliament. This trial is now believed to be conducted to safeguard Hun Sen's continued power control.
Peace and Conflict from South Asia
India: Transporters call for a nation-wide strike as farmers' protest against privatization of agriculture intensify
On 2 December, the All-India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC), an umbrella body of goods' vehicles operators representing about 10 million truckers, called for a strike from 8 December in support of the farmers' protest that has currently gripped the country. The transporters would halt the movement of essential goods across the country if the demands of the farmers protesting against three farm laws passed in September to liberalize the sector are not met. Farmers, especially from Punjab and Haryana, have been protesting against the laws which will privatize farming and will replace existing middlemen with more powerful corporate entities. The laws are entitled to permit private traders to stockpile large quantities of essential commodities for future sales and lay down new rules for contract farming. The farm leaders have opined this will leave them at the mercy of private buyers.
India: Second phase of the DDC elections held in Jammu and Kashmir
On 2 December, polling for 43 constituencies in the second phase of election for District Development Council (DDC) in Jammu and Kashmir was held. The contest is between the newly launched People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, the BJP and the Apni Party floated by former finance minister Altaf Bukhari. "Of the total 280 DDC constituencies in J&K, 25 will go to polls in Kashmir and 18 in Jammu in the second phase of the election," election commissioner of the union territory KK Sharma said. As many as 7.90 lakh voters are eligible for voting in this phase and 142 polling stations have been set up across the union territory. The first phase of polling, also for 43 seats, was held on 28 November. As much as 51.76 per cent voting was recorded in this phase.
Bangladesh: 'It is difficult for women to get justice,' says Human Rights Watch report
On 25 November, the Human Right Watch published a report on rising gender-based violence in Bangladesh taking stock of the role of judiciary and access to justice for the victims of violence in the country. "Violence against women and girls is so pervasive in Bangladesh, it is sometimes dismissed as unsolvable," says the report. Marking the 16 days of activism, the government and donors should listen to activists who are offering workable solutions and the Bangladesh government should ensure that legal aid is reaching women and girls in need and that they are aware of their rights, said the report taking a sharp critique of the government's skewed attention to gender violence.
Nepal: Protests seeking justice for Uighur Muslims in China
On 29 November, the Muslim Kalyankari Samaj in Nepal organized a protest against atrocities on the Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang province of China. The protesters raised voice against the demolition of thousands of mosques in Xinjiang and the treatment being meted out to them by the Chinese government. The Muslims in Pokhara also joined the international community in expressing their views on the gruesome human rights violations against Uyghur Muslims. The community leaders said that they would keep raising their concern against atrocities on Uyghurs in the future as well.
Pakistan: Ahead of PDM rally, Imran Khan calls for stern action against violations of COVID-19 rules
On 1 December, Imran Khan ordered authorities "to take stern action" against the opposition leaders if the Pakistan Democratic Movement conducts its rally in violation of the COVID-19 guidelines in Lahore on 13 December. The stern actions include lodging FIRs against the organizers and leaders. According to the news report in the Dawn, ahead of the anti-government rally, hundreds of opposition workers were booked and arrested while Pakistan Peoples' Party leader Ali Qasim Gilani was shifted to Multan jail on 29 November.
Pakistan: World's loneliest elephant finds a family all the way in Cambodia
On 2 December, the "world's loneliest elephant", Kaavan, reached Cambodia on a flight Islamabad in Pakistan after which the elephant will spend his days at the Cambodia Wildlife Sanctuary. Animal experts began the task of airlifting Kaavan on 29 November, in a crate made especially for him. His departure from Pakistan marks the end of a campaign led by local activists and American singer and actress Cher, who has been campaigning for the elephant's freedom since 2016.
Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan reclaims territories held by Armenian forces
On 1 December, Azerbaijan completed reclaiming territories held by Armenian forces after a peace deal ended six weeks of fierce fighting over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hailed the restoration of control over the areas as a "historic victory" and a demonstration of his nation's "unbending spirit." "We all lived with one dream, and now we fulfilled it," said the President in an address to the nation. The reclamation follows a protracted six-week violent conflict killing thousands. Azerbaijani families are beginning to return to hometowns for the first time in decades.
Iraq: Fears loom large over intra-Kurdish clashes
On 3 December, according to a news report in Al Jazeera, fears loom large of a conflict between Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and forces of the ruling Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the autonomous region of northern Iraq. Tensions between the two sides are increasing amid a military standoff on the Iraq-Turkey border. The tensions began when the KRG-led Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) accused the PKK of assassinating Ghazi Salih, a security official working at the Sarzer border crossing in Duhok province on 8 October. The PKK denied the charges but the situation quickly intensified when the PKK on 29 October claimed responsibility for a "successful sabotage action" on a KRG pipeline to Turkey near Mardin province, suspending all oil exports.
Iran: The Parliament approves bill to stop nuclear inspections
On 1 December, Iran's parliament approved a bill that would suspend the UN inspections of its nuclear facilities and require the government to boost its uranium enrichment if European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal do not provide relief from oil and banking sanctions. The vote to approve the bill, would require approval by the Guardian Council and comes a day after the killing of a prominent Iranian nuclear scientist. The bill would give the European countries one month to ease sanctions on Iran's key oil and gas sector and to restore its access to the international banking system. It would have authorities resume enriching uranium to 20 per cent which is below the threshold needed for nuclear weapons but higher than what is required for civilian applications.
Israel: Early elections as Ganz divorces Netanyahu, votes to dissolve the parliament
On 2 December, the parliament (Knesset) in Israel voted to dissolve in a preliminary vote, bringing the country closer to a fourth election in less than two years. Sixty-one lawmakers voted in favour, and 54 voted against. The proposal will now go to the Legislative Committee for discussion. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear that his Likud party will vote against the bill, which was put forth by the opposition. Benny Gantz, hoping to spur Netanyahu to reach a compromise on the 2021 state budget, voted in favour. Slamming Netanyahu, Gantz said that the Knesset's dissolution could have been averted had Netanyahu passed the biannual budget. In his address, Gantz said he'd had "no illusions" about Netanyahu when he formed the government. He accused Netanyahu of blocking key appointments, delaying legislation and claiming credit for the accomplishments of others.
Uganda: Bobi Wine resumes election campaign after suspending over violence
On 2 December, Bobi Wine, the Ugandan singer and contesting presidential candidate, announced resuming of his electoral campaign after suspending it after members of his campaign were injured and his car was shot during clashes with security personnel. He told reporters that he had asked the electoral body to protect opposition politicians from harassment by the security forces. "If they can't do it, they should resign," said Wine. He told the election commission to ensure that the security forces stop blocking roads and venues to prevent opposition candidates from campaigning. The police have defended themselves, saying they were implementing guidelines to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Bobi Wine is seeking to end the decades-long rule of 76-year-old President Yoweri Museveni in an election scheduled for 14 January.
Mali: Al Qaeda-linked terrorists bomb three French military bases
On 30 November, Al Qaeda-linked terrorists rocketed French military bases in Kidal, Menaka and Gao in northern Mali. In this rare display of coordinated attacks, the camps were hit by "indirect fire," although no deaths or injuries were reported. The region has more than 5,100 personnel. In a statement on Al Thabat, an affiliated media outfit, al Qaeda said, "the rocket attacks of the Mujahideen, in support of Islam and Muslims, targeted the bases of the French infidel army." The attacks after the French forces killed Bah ag Moussa, a military leader of al Qaeda's North Africa wing on 10 November.
Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas
COVID-19 vaccine: The UK is first to authorize Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, first shots roll out next week
On 2 December, the UK has become the first country ahead of the US and the European Union to authorize the Covid-19 vaccine of the US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech. This paves the way for the first doses to be rolled out across the country next week. "Help is on the way," said Health Secretary Matt Hancock. A final analysis of the Phase 3 trial of the vaccine shows it was 95 per cent effective in preventing infections, even in older adults, and caused no serious safety concerns, said Pfizer in November.
France: Protests over security law after racial abuse by police
On 29 November, protests broke out in France as tens of thousands took to the streets against the new security legislation, with tensions intensified by the police beating and racial abuse of a black man. Several fires were started in Paris, sending acrid smoke into the air, as protesters vented their anger against the security law which would restrict the publication of police officers' faces. Some 46,000 people marched in Paris and 133,000 in total nationwide, the interior ministry said. Protest organizers said some 500,000 joined nationwide, including 200,000 in the capital. French President Emmanuel Macron said the images of the beating of music producer Michel Zecler by police officers in Paris last weekend "shame us." The incident had magnified concerns about alleged systemic racism in the police force.
France: Former President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing passes away from COVID-19 complications
On 3 December, the former French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, a key architect of European integration in the early 1970s, died at the age of 94 after contracting Covid-19. Giscard, who served as France's leader from 1974 to 1981, was hospitalized in Tours with respiratory problems and was released only to return to the hospital in mid-November. He died after suffering from complications linked to the virus, according to a statement issued by the Foundation Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. Giscard was known for steering the modernization of the French society during his presidency, including allowing divorce by mutual consent and legalizing abortion. He was elected President at 48, coming to power after years of Gaullist rule, and sought to liberalize the economy and social attitudes.
Germany: Far-right extremist group 'Sturmbrigade 44' banned
On 1 December, Interior Ministry of Germany banned the neo-Nazi group "Sturmbrigade 44" after a series of raids across three German states. The Interior Minister Horst Seehofer described the group, as "Wolfsbrigade 44," allowing a series of measures to be taken against its members. The classification allows officials to confiscate assets and propaganda material, with the aim of also collecting evidence on any right-wing extremist structures. Raids on the properties of 13 group members took place on in the states of Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and North Rhine-Westphalia.
Russia: Probe begins on Navalny's interview on coronavirus
On 1 December, Russian authorities announced that they are probing opposition figure Alexei Navalny's comments during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic for inciting extremism. The investigators are reportedly examining whether Navalny's interview on 27 April interview with the liberal Ekho Moskvy radio station contained calls for a violent overthrow of the Russian government. If the charges are proven and labelled it will carry prison sentence for five years for "public calls for terrorism."
Denmark: Zombie minks likely to be dug up from mass graves
On 1 December, the government in Denmark has announced its intention to dig up mink that were culled to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, after some resurfaced from mass graves. Denmark ordered all farmed mink to be culled early this month after finding that 12 people had been infected by a mutated strain of the virus that causes COVID-19, which passed from humans to mink and back to humans. The decision led to 17 million animals being destroyed and to the resignation of Food and Agriculture Minister Morgens Jensen. Dead mink were tipped into trenches at a military area in western Denmark and covered with two meters (about six feet) of soil. But hundreds have begun resurfacing, pushed out of the ground by what authorities say is gas from their decomposition. The Danish newspapers have referred to them as the 'zombie mink.'
The US: COVID-19 cases surge as experts credit it to extensive Thanksgiving travel
On 1 December, the US continued to report more than 1,00,000 new coronavirus cases a day over the holiday weekend, as experts warned that widespread Thanksgiving travel has mostly likely fuelled the surge. The number of new cases reported in the US topped 2,00,000 for the first time on 27 November, according to Johns Hopkins University. Since January, when the first US infections were reported, more than 13 million cases have been recorded and more than 2,65,000 people have died. Positive news emerged when Moderna said it would apply for the US authorization to use its coronavirus vaccine as the company announced final results from its trial confirming 94 per cent efficacy.
The US: "No electoral fraud found to overturn Biden's win," says Attorney General William Barr
On 1 December, the US Department of Justice said that it has not found evidence of any large-scale ballot fraud that would reverse President-elect Joe Biden's projected win over President Donald Trump in the election. The Attorney General William Barr's statement to the media now sharply challenged the claims by Trump, his lawyers and many of his political allies that he was the victim of massive voting fraud that swindled the Republican incumbent out of a win over the Democratic challenger. "Most claims of fraud are very particularized to a particular set of circumstances or actors or conduct. They are not systemic allegations. ... And those have been run down; they are being run down," said Barr.
The US elections: Arizona and Wisconsin certify victory for Biden, Trump to challenge
On 30 November, the US states of Arizona and Wisconsin declared President-elect Joe Biden as the certified winner further widening the chances of a win for President Donald Trump. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs certified the state's results while Governor Doug Ducey, Attorney General Mark Brnovich and Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel served as witnesses. In addition to Biden being certified as the winner of Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly was certified as the winner of the Senate election in the state. Similarly, the Wisconsin Elections Commissions Chairwoman Ann Jacobs certified the votes in that state one day after a partial recount, which found dozens of more votes for Biden. Challenging the votes, Trump tweeted, "The Wisconsin recount is not about finding mistakes in the count, it is about finding people who have voted illegally, and that case will be brought after the recount is over."
Brazil: Deforestation of Amazon reached the highest level in 12 years
On 30 November, Brazil's space agency (Inpe) published in its report that deforestation of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil has surged to its highest level since 2008. A total of 11,088 sq km (4,281 sq miles) of rainforest were destroyed from August 2019 to July 2020. This is a 9.5 per cent increase from the previous year. Amazon is a vital carbon store that slows down the pace of global warming. Scientists say it has suffered losses at an accelerated rate since Jair Bolsonaro took office in January 2019. The Brazilian president has encouraged agriculture and mining activities in the world's largest rainforest. Brazil had set a goal of slowing the pace of deforestation to 3,900 sq km annually by 2020. But under Bolsonaro, development-induced deforestation of the rainforest have continued wherein the President has also cut funding to federal agencies that have the power to fine and arrest farmers and loggers breaking environmental law.
Brazil: Bolsonaro to wait to recognize the winner of the US election
On 29 November, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil said he will wait "a little bit longer" to recognize the winner in the US Presidential election, suggesting that there was evidence of fraud in the process. Drawing parallels from what the US President Donald Trump calls 'massive poll rigging', Bolsonaro also questioned the legitimacy of Brazil's electoral process, decrying its electronic voting system and calling for a return to paper voting. Bolsonaro, an ally of President Trump, said he had heard the US vote was rigged, but presented no evidence. "I have sources and they said there was a lot of fraud."
About the authors
Apoorva Sudhakar, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, Lakshmi V Menon, and Sourina Bej are Research Assistants, Project Associate and Research Consultant at NIAS.
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Sudan: A Civil War’s Implications Beyond Borders
Anu Maria Joseph
The Conflict in Eastern Congo: Rebel Violence, State Failure and Failed Mediations
R Preetha
The War in Gaza: Alarming Ground Situation, Failed Global Interventions, Competing Visions and Viability of Two-State Solution
Brighty Ann Sarah
The War in Gaza: Israel’s expanding military campaign
Anshuman Behera
State of Conflicts and Peace in India’s Northeast India: The Challenge of Demography, Development and Dialogue in Divided Societies
Anshuman Behera
The Meanings and Warnings of Nepal’s Youth Protest: Insulated political leadership, Unchecked corruption, and Mounting Unemployment
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Myanmar Since the 2021 Coup: Cost and Consequences of the Military's Containment Strategy
Kasvi Batra
Thailand–Cambodia border conflict: History, Politics, Cost and Regional Mediation
Avishka Ashok
The US-China Tariff War: The Battle for Global Economic Supremacy
IPRI Team
Congo: M23 Violence and Failed Peace Efforts in Eastern DRC
IPRI Team
Protests and Instability in Nepal
IPRI Team
The War in Gaza: US Post-War Plans and Global Accountability Efforts
IPRI Team
Trump-Putin-Zelensky-EU Leaders meetings, Reoccupation of Gaza by Israel, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement
IPRI Team
Trump-Putin Talks on Ukraine, Israel's reoccupation of Gaza City, and a Fragile Ceasefire in DR Congo
IPRI Team
The War in Gaza: Failed negotiations, unfolding famine and the mounting international pressure
IPRI Team
Thailand–Cambodia Diplomatic and Military Standoff & Third Round of Russia–Ukraine Negotiations in Turkey
IPRI Team
Sectarian Violence in Syria and New US Sanctions on Russia over Ukraine
IPRI Team
Conflict Weekly # 287-88
IPRI Team
Conflict Weekly #286
IPRI Team
Conflict Weekly #284-285
Conflict Weekly # 282-83
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan Tensions | Ukraine between missile attacks and ceasefire proposals
IPRI Team
Expanding anti-Erdogan Protests in Turkey and Russia’s Continuing Military Strikes in Ukraine
IPRI Team
The Farmer-Herder Conflict in Nigeria, and Remembering the Genocide in Rwanda
Women and Peacebuilding: An interaction with Ms Visaka Dharmadasa on International Women's Day
IPRI Team
Devastating Earthquake in Myanmar
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Myanmar: State of Perpetual War
IPRI Team
Ukraine's Failed Kursk Offensive, Congo-Rwanda Ceasefire Statement, and the Return of War in Gaza
IPRI Team
Ukraine: Discussions in Russia and Saudi Arabia, A Ceasefire Proposal, and Drone/Missile Attacks
IPRI Team
Ukraine and Gaza under Trump’s Shadow
IPRI Team
Three Years of Ukraine War
IPRI Team
Europe's Ukraine Dilemma
IPRI Team
Gaza’s fragile ceasefire, Violence in Bangladesh, and DR Congo's M23 problem
IPRI Team
A Dangerous Offensive in DR Congo by M23
IPRI Team
The Israel-Hamas Deal (and its challenges)
IPRI Team
The Israel-Hamas Deal and Wildfires in California
IPRI Team
Trump’s Threat to the Middle East, Genocide in Sudan, Fears over China’s Dam on Yarlung Tsangpo, andTen Years after Charlie Hebdo Attacks
IPRI Team
Crisis in Syria, Protests in Georgia, Violence in Mozambique, and an Update on Ukraine War
IPRI Team
State of Peace and Conflict in 2024
IPRI Team
The Rise of HTS and the Fall of Assad in Syria
IPRI Team
Continuing Baloch Disappearances and the Failed PTI Protest in Pakistan
IPRI Team
The Long Range Missiles in Ukraine War and the Prolonged War in Sudan
IPRI Team
Trump and the Conflict in the Middle East
IPRI Team
India-China Border Disengagement and Floods in Spain
IPRI Team
Continuing Israel-Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas Conflict and a Controversial Election in Georgia
IPRI Team
Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Attacks and a Militant Attack in Kashmir
IPRI Team
Special Edition on “Contemporary Conflictsâ€
IPRI Team
Israel-Hezbollah-Iran Missile Attacks, and New Tensions in Sudan
IPRI Team
From Gaza to Lebanon: A New Phase of War in the Middle East
IPRI Team
The War in Ukraine: Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk
IPRI Team
The Continuing State of War, Mediation and Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan
IPRI Team
Protests in Israel and Drone Attacks in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Telegram Founder’s Arrest, Attack in Burkina Faso, Canada’s Ban on Chinese EVs and Wildfires in Greece and Canada
IPRI Team
Blinken’s Ninth Visit to Israel and the Mpox Outbreak in Africa
IPRI Team
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive inside Russia, and the UK Violence
IPRI Team
Violence in Bangladesh, the UK, and Nigeria
IPRI Team
Houthis-Hezbollah-Israel Tensions, and Continuing & Expanding Protests in Kenya
IPRI Team
Continuing Crisis in Kenya, Doha Talks with the Taliban, and Suicide Bombings in Nigeria
IPRI Team
Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, Terror Attacks in Dagestan, and Protests in Kenya
IPRI Team
Ukraine Peace Summit, New Challenges to Netanyahu, and Wildfires in California
IPRI Team
Biden's Gaza Proposal, New US Order on Migration, and a Guilty Verdict in Hong Kong
IPRI Team
International Condemnation of Israel, Battle for Kharkiv in Russia, and the Protests in New Caledonia
IPRI Team
Growing International Pressure on Israel, Protests in Armenia and Elections in South Africa
IPRI Team
Conflict in Gaza, Elections in Catalonia and Protests in Georgia
IPRI Team
Elusive Negotiations over Gaza and Complex Abortion Legislations in the US
IPRI Team
UK's Rwanda Deportation Bill and Ecuador's Referendum
IPRI Team
Conflict Escalation in the Middle East, and One Year of Civil War in Sudan
IPRI Team
Six Months of War in Gaza & the Mexico-Ecuador spat
IPRI Team
Remembering the Rwandan Genocide and Martin Luther King
IPRI Team
UNSC Resolution on Gaza, Terror Attack in Moscow, and a Profile of the IS-K
IPRI Team
The Female Genital Mutilation bill in The Gambia, Search for a Ceasefire in Gaza and Continuing Instability in Haiti
IPRI Team
Continuing Kidnappings in Nigeria
IPRI Team
Sweden in NATO, Farmers' Protest in Poland, and the anti-LGBTQ bill in Ghana
IPRI Team
The Battle for Avdiivka in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Israel's Military Campaign in Rafah
IPRI Team
Protests in Senegal
IPRI Team
UNRWA 's funding crisis in Gaza, Farmers' protest in France, and Withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from ECOWAS
IPRI Team
Continuing Violence in Haiti, Myanmar and Gaza
IPRI Team
The Red Sea Crisis: Attacks and Counter Attacks
IPRI Team
Blinken's Fourth Visit to Middle East, Ecuador's State of Internal Armed Conflict, and Ethiopia-Somaliland tensions in the Horn of Africa
IPRI Team
The War in Ukraine and Gaza
IPRI Team
Special Edition: Conflicts in 2023
IPRI Team
The Red Sea Crisis and Hungary's blockade of EU's Ukraine aid
IPRI Team
Tensions in South China Sea and Ukraine and Terror Attack in Pakistan
IPRI Team
End of a Fragile Peace in Gaza, and a Failed Coup in Sierra Leone
IPRI Team
Floods in East Africa, the London Summit on Global Food Security, and the War in Gaza
IPRI Team
Into the Fifth Week: The Continuing Ground Offensive and Israel’s Search for Hamas’ Command Centre
IPRI Team
The Conflict in Sudan and Pakistan's Repatriation of Illegal Refugees
IPRI Team
The Worsening Situation in Gaza, Rapprochement between Venezuela and the US, and the Philippines- China Maritime Dispute
IPRI Team
The Conflict Escalation in Israel and the Failed Indigenous Voice Referendum in Australia
IPRI Team
Israel-Palestine Conflict and Earthquake in Afghanistan
IPRI Team
Rising security threats after the coup in Niger
IPRI Team
Nagorno-Karabakh and the End of the Republic of Artsakh
IPRI Team
Decriminalisation of Abortion in Mexico, Continuing Violence in Sudan, Floods in Libya, and Earthquake in Morocco
IPRI Team
The Fall of Black Sea Grain Initiative, Leadership Troubles for Myanmar in ASEAN, and Post-Coup Tensions in Gabon
IPRI Team
Coup in Gabon and One Year of “Total Peace†in Colombia
IPRI Team
Another Conflict in Ethiopia and a Stalemate in Niger
IPRI Team
Political Violence in Ecuador, Wildfires in Hawaii, and Two Years of Taliban Rule
IPRI Team
Continuing Standoff in Niger, Expanding War in Ukraine, and Political Crisis in Senegal
S Shaji
Increasing Insurgency in East Africa: Major Trends and Trajectories
IPRI Team
The Coup in Niger, Violent anti-government demonstrations in Kenya, and Protests in Israel over judicial reforms
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Return of Violence in Manipur
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Myanmar continues to burn
IPRI Team
Protests in France, Termination of UN Mission in Mali, and Violence in Israel
IPRI Team
Rise and Fall of the Wagner Revolt, Failure of the Ninth Ceasefire in Sudan, and the Global Gender Gap Report
Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran, Sandra D Costa, Ryan Marcus, Prerana P and Nithyashree RB
Global Gender Gap Report 2023: Regional Takeaways
IPRI Team
Violence in Uganda, Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean, State of the Climate in Europe, and Taliban Arms Management
Bibhu Prasad Routray
The Civil War in Myanmar: Continuing Violence, the Battle of Attrition, and the Divide within ASEAN
IPRI Team
Counter-Offensive and Drone Attacks in Ukraine, and Continuing Violence in Manipur
Bibhu Prasad Routray
India: Violence continues in Manipur
IPRI Team
Canada's Wildfires, and Reviews of two reports on Tigray and the Arctic Ice-melt
IPRI Team
The Russia-Ukraine Drone Warfare, Violence in Kosovo, and a Separatists' Crisis in Cameroon
IPRI Team
Another ceasefire in Sudan, and a Counteroffensive in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Evacuation in Sudan, and the Chinese Ambassador's statement on the status of former Soviet republics
IPRI Team
Violence in Sudan and the Battle for Bakhmut
IPRI Team
Violence in Israel and 25 years of the Good Friday Agreement
IPRI Team
Protests in Israel, Elections in Finland, and Kidnapping in Nigeria
IPRI Team
Protests in Senegal, Imran Khan's arrest attempt and Bank distress across the US and Europe
IPRI Team
Protests in Georgia, Japan-South Korea reconciliation, and Iran’s school poisoning
IPRI Team
New BREXIT deal on Northern Ireland, battle for Bakhmut and return of violence in Palestine
IPRI Team
Protests in China and France, and post-earthquake crises in Turkey and Syria
IPRI Team
The US-China tensions over balloon, and Weather anomalies in the Americas
IPRI Team
The continuing crisis in Israel
IPRI Team
Protests in Spain, Sweden and Israel
IPRI Team
Population decline in China, and Protests in Peru
IPRI Team
Peace and conflict in 2022: Top 50 stories from around the world
IPRI Team
Global Biodiversity Framework and the EU's gas price capping regulation
IPRI Team
Workers strike in the UK
IPRI Team
Drone attacks in Russia
IPRI Team
Protests in China and the end of TTP's ceasefire in Pakistan
IPRI Team
A ceasefire in DRC and a report on the repatriation from Syria's detention camps
IPRI Team
Special Edition: 150th Issue of Conflict Weekly
IPRI Team
Assassination attempt on Imran Khan and Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson
IPRI Team
Permanent ceasefire in Ethiopia and a report on the supply chain behind war crimes in Myanmar
IPRI Team
Chad: Extension of transition period sparks pro-democratic protests
IPRI Team
Haiti's Gang Violence, Venezuelan Migrants and the US, and Global Hunger Index
IPRI Team
UNHRC proceedings on Xinjiang and the Oxfam report on reducing inequality
IPRI Team
North Korea's missile tests and Russia's annexation of four territories
IPRI Team
Protests in Iran
IPRI Team
The UN report on Xinjiang: Four Takeaways
IPRI Team
Violence in Baghdad and Renewed fighting in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
Clashes between Armenia-Azerbaijan
IPRI Team
Ukraine's counter-offensive, North Korea's legislation on preemptive nuclear strike, and a report on Modern Slavery
IPRI Team
Six months of War in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Zawahiri's killing, Pope's apology to the indigenous people in Canada, Iraq's political crisis, and Senegal's disputed elections
IPRI Team
Russia’s gas warning to Europe, and Sudan’s intra-tribal clashes
IPRI Team
President Rajapaksa’s resignation and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, and the military's withdrawal in Sudan
IPRI Team
Political Stalemate in Libya, and the Fall of Luhansk in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Attacks on pride marches in Europe, Migration problems in Morocco, and Russia's new attacks in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Heatwave in Europe, rise of the Left in Colombia and the UNHCR report on Forced Displacement
IPRI Team
The new UK new bill on Brexit, Turkey's NATO concerns on Finland and Sweden and the SIPRI report on nuclear arsenal/weapons
IPRI Team
North Korea's Missile Tests and Sanctions on Mali
IPRI Team
Denmark's referendum on EU defence and interstate tensions in Africa
IPRI Team
Another school shooting in the US, and EU-UK tussle over Northern Ireland protocol
IPRI Team
Another racial attack in the US, Divide within the EU over the Russian oil ban, and violence in Israel
IPRI Team
Intensifying political crisis in Sri Lanka, Communal tensions in Ethiopia, and 75 days of Ukraine war
IPRI Team
Mali-France tensions and anti-UK protests in the Virgin Islands
IPRI Team
​​​​​​​UK-Rwanda asylum deal, Mexico's continuing femicides, and Afghanistan's sectarian violence
IPRI Team
The battle for Donbas, Violence in Jerusalem, Riots in Sweden, Kyrgyzstan- Tajikistan border dialogue, and China’s military drills
IPRI Team
Violence in Nigeria, and Russia’s new military strategy in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Political Crises in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Tunisia; Ceasefire in Yemen; and the Battle for Mariupol
IPRI Team
30 days of War in Ukraine
IPRI Team
Sri Lanka’s worsening economic crisis
IPRI Team
The end of Denmark’s Inuit experiment
IPRI Team
International Women’s Day: Gap between policies and realities on gender equality
IPRI Team
Russia’s Ukraine Invasion: One Week Later
IPRI Team
Russia’s Ukraine salami slicing and Canada’s freedom convoy protests
IPRI Team
Unfreezing the Afghan assets, Tunisia’s judicial crisis and Libya’s new political deadlock
IPRI Team
Freedom convoy protests in Canada, and a de-escalation over Ukraine
IPRI Team
One year of the coup in Myanmar, Taliban meetings in Oslo, and the Global hunger report
IPRI Team
Coup in Burkina Faso, Continuing violence in Yemen, and an ISIS attack in Syria
IPRI Team
Threat of War over Ukraine, a Syrian trial in Germany, and Protests in France
IPRI Team
Conflicts in 2021 : Through Regional Prisms
IPRI Team
New reports on the Omicron threat, and lifting sanctions on humanitarian aid to Afghanistan
IPRI Team
West warns Russia over Ukrainian aggression and South Korea and North Korean agree on end-of-war declaration in principle
IPRI Team
Unrest in the Solomon Islands, and the 12 million missing children in China
IPRI Team
Anti-lockdown protests in Europe, Farmers' protests in India, and Continuing instability in Sudan
IPRI Team
Europe's other migrant crisis, and Protests in Cuba and Thailand
IPRI Team
The migrant threat to Europe from Belarus and Ceasefire with the TTP in Pakistan
IPRI Team
One year of Ethiopian conflict and UK-France fishing row
IPRI Team
Coup in Sudan, ASEAN on Myanmar, and the Migrant game by Belarus
IPRI Team
One year after Samuel Paty's killing, Kidnapping in Haiti, and Instability in Sudan
IPRI Team
ISIS violence in Afghanistan, and Targeted killings in J&K
IPRI Team
Anti-Bolsonaro protests in Brazil, UK-France fishing row, Talks with the TTP in Pakistan, and the anti-abortion law protests in the US
IPRI Team
Pride marches in Europe, Jail term for Hotel Rwanda hero, and continuing Houthi-led violence in Yemen
IPRI Team
Protests in Europe and Brazil, and an impending humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan
IPRI Team
Texas' abortion ban, Return of the Thai protests, the Taliban government, and the Guinea coup
IPRI Team
The US exit from Afghanistan, the Houthi violence in Yemen, and Hurricane Ida in the US
IPRI Team
Return of the Taliban and the fall of Afghanistan
IPRI Team
Taliban offensive, New Zealand's apology over the Pacific communities, Peru's new problem, and an inter-State clash in India's Northeast
IPRI Team
France's anti-extremism bill, Canada's burning churches, and Tunisia's new political crisis
IPRI Team
Floods in Germany, Wildfires in Siberia and the Pegasus Spyware
IPRI Team
Anti-government protests in Cuba, Pro-Zuma protests in South Africa, and remembering the Srebrenica massacre
IPRI Team
Taliban offensive in Afghanistan, Protests in Colombia, and the Heat Wave
IPRI Team
Ceasefire in Ethiopia, Berlin Conference on Libya and the World Drug Report
IPRI Team
The US Juneteenth, UN resolution on Myanmar and Global Peace Index
IPRI Team
Three new reports on Child labour, Ethiopia and Xinjiang, Tensions in Belfast, and the Suu Kyi trial
IPRI Team
Continuing protests in Colombia, another mass abduction in Nigeria, and a controversial election in Syria
IPRI Team
Ceasefire in Israel, NLD ban in Myanmar and a new Belarus crisis
IPRI Team
Violent protests in Colombia, US troops withdrawal in Afghanistan, and the battle for Marib in Yemen
IPRI Team
Israel-Syria missile strikes, Clashes in Somalia and Afghan meetings in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Riots in Northern Ireland, Sabotage on an Iranian nuclear facility, and a massacre in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
Bloody Week in Myanmar, a Suicide attack in Indonesia and an Insurgency in Mozambique
IPRI Team
Sanctions on China, Saudi Arabia ceasefire in Yemen, the UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka, and a massacre in Niger
IPRI Team
Gender Protests in Australia, Expanding Violence in Myanmar and Anti-protests bill in the UK
IPRI Team
Women’s Day, Swiss Referendum, Myanmar Violence, George Floyd Trial and Lebanon Protests
IPRI Team
From Myanmar and Hong Kong in Asia to Nigeria in Africa: Seven conflicts this week
IPRI Team
Continuing Protests in Myanmar, ‘Comfort Women’ issue in South Korea and Abductions in Nigeria
IPRI Team
Anti-Coup protests in Myanmar, a new US strategy on Yemen, and the US-Iran differences on nuclear roadmap
IPRI Team
Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia
IPRI Team
Farmers' protests in India, Vaccine Wars, another India-China border standoff, and Navalny's imprisonment
IPRI Team
New President in the US, new Chinese Village in Arunachal Pradesh, new Israeli settlement in West Bank, and another massacre in Sudan
IPRI Team
Trump impeached by the US House, Hazara miners buried in Pakistan, Farm laws stayed in India, and the Crisis escalation in CAR
IPRI Team
Hot on the Conflict Trails: Top Ten Conflicts in 2020
IPRI Team
Boko Haram abductions in Nigeria, Violence in Afghanistan and Farmers' protest in India
IPRI Team
Farmers protest in India, Radicals target idols in Bangladesh, UK reaches out to the EU and Saudi Arabia to mend ties with Qatar
IPRI Team
An assassination in Iran, Massacre in Nigeria and Suicide bombings in Afghanistan
IPRI Team
Electoral violence in Africa, War crimes in Afghanistan, COVID's third global wave, and Protest escalation in Thailand
IPRI Team
A peace agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh and a brewing civil war in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
IS terror in Vienna and Kabul, new controversy along Nepal-China border, and a boundary dispute in India’s Northeast
IPRI Team
Solidarity in France, Emergency withdrawn in Thailand, Terror tag removed in Sudan and Hunger in South Asia
IPRI Team
An Afghan woman nominated for the Nobel and a Dalit woman assaulted in India. External actors get involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
IPRI Team
Al Qaeda module in India, Naga Peace talks and the Polio problem in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Targeted Violence in Pakistan, Protests in Hong Kong and the Charlie Hebdo Trial in France
IPRI Team
Anti Racist Protests in the US and the Floods in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Proposed amendment in Sri Lanka, Verdict on the gunman in New Zealand, Peace Conference in Myanmar and the Ceasefire troubles in Libya
IPRI Team
Release of Taliban prisoners in Afghanistan, Troubles in Naga Peace Talks in India’s Northeast, and a deadly week in Lebanon
IPRI Team
Devastating floods in Assam, and a mob Lynching of cattle smugglers along India-Bangladesh border
IPRI Team
Violence in India's Northeast, FGM ban in Sudan, the UN warning on Global Hunger & the Return of Global Protests
IPRI Team
Geelani's Exit and Continuing Violence in J&K, and the BLA attack on Pakistan stock exchange in Karachi
IPRI Team
Baloch Disappearance issue returns, Nepal tightens Citizenship rules, and Egypt enters the conflict in Libya
IPRI Team
A week of violence in Afghanistan, US and Africa, Urban drivers of political violence, and anti-racism protests in Europe
IPRI Team
Kalapani dispute in India-Nepal border, Migrants exodus in India, Continuing violence in Balochistan and KP
IPRI Team
