NIAS Area Studies


PAKISTAN READER

Photo Source: The Hindu
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

The World This Year
Abraham Accords: Rethinking Diplomacy and Restructuring Priorities in the Middle East

  Rashmi Ramesh

Terming the Abraham Accords a peace deal is pre-mature at this point, as its effects are yet to trickle down and solidify. It is certainly a bilateral peace deal but not a peace plan for the region, and hence, there is a long way to go for the peaceful Middle East.

On 15 September 2020, Israel, the UAE and Bahrain created history by normalizing diplomatic relations and signing the Abraham Accords, a peace deal brokered by President Donald Trump. The Accords is a historic diplomatic move to integrate Israel in its neighbourhood and achieve Arab consensus against Iran. 

The Accords
The process of normalizing relations with Israel by the Arab countries gathered steam in the second half of 2020 when the UAE announced its stance in August. Bahrain followed it in September. In October, the transitional government in Sudan, despite opposition, announced starting diplomatic relations with Israel. In December, Morocco recognized Israel and became the fourth Arab country. 

The Accords signal a departure from the Arab unity, where most Arab states did not recognize Israel and demanded a sovereign state for the Palestinians. While the demand for an independent Palestine still stands, it is no more a pre-condition to establishing relations with Israel.  

The Background
Normalization of relations between Israel and the four Arab countries necessitates an insight into the background. 

First, the United States, as a great power, is embroiled in numerous issues of the region and has multiple stakes and interests. Sale of arms is one of the primary interests. In 2019, under Trump administration, arms sales increased by 42 per cent globally. Sales to the Middle East and North Africa specifically skyrocketed, recording a 118 per cent increase in 2019. Abraham Accords can bolster the sale of arms and serve the interests of the US. Supporting Israel and ensuring its security is another primary interest of the US. The Accords is an achievement in the US's policy towards Israel. 

Second, the Israel-Palestine conflict is not the central issue that directs the geopolitics of the Middle East. The prominent members of the Arab world, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, do not place Palestine as a core issue. Though Riyadh has not signed the Abraham Accords, it has not opposed the entire process. This has prompted speculations that it provides covert support to the normalization process, encouraged Bahrain to sign the Accords in September and may recognize Israel in future, provided that the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman deftly manages divergent opinions within the al-Saud family and the public. 

Third, officializing the unofficial. It is well known that the Arab world has been maintaining diplomatic relations and interacting with Israel through back channels. The Abraham Accords is an official acknowledgement of the same, much to the Palestinians' disappointment and some sections of the population in the Arab countries.

Fourth, the role of media and religious leaders. To ensure that the public opinion is not extremely negative, the Arab media weaved narratives about the origin of Jews and how they belong to the region, thereby the need for the Muslim community to "tolerate" them. Religious leaders called upon the people and reminded them of their "duty" adhere and uphold the ultimate decision of the kingdom/state.

The Perspective
First, it is the primary nature of a state to prioritize its national interests. The parties to the Abraham Accords, certainly have specific gains in return to the signing. The UAE and Bahrain will benefit from the defence deals perceived as gains in return for normalization of ties with Israel. The UAE has long wanted the F-35 fighter jets, which the US could not sell because of its commitment to Israel's security. However, Israel now does not oppose the sale, as it said that the US had assured its military superiority in the Middle East. Bahrain gains from the lifting of hold on the sale of F-16s. The Accords may also pave the way for direct defence ties between UAE- Bahrain and Israel. 

Sudan also calculated the transactional gains from the Accords. In return for recognizing Israel, it was assured of being removed from the US's State Sponsor of Terrorism List. The most recent to normalize relations, Morocco was the highest buyer of US arms (worth approximately $12 billion) in 2019 in the MENA region. In return to the Accords' signing, the US recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, where the Polisario Front leads a separatist movement at the behest of neighbouring Algeria. 

As stated earlier, the US gains in terms of arms sale. Abraham Accords will also be projected as one of the biggest achievements of the outgoing Trump administration, on the foreign policy domain. 

Israel perceives the recognition from the Arab countries, as a mammoth gain. However, the conservative section of the Israeli society has opposed the deal, as Netanyahu had to put the West Bank annexation plan on hold in return to be officially recognized. With all the variables remaining constant, the plan will not be implemented shortly. However, the Palestinians are no closer to achieving their sovereignty. Perhaps, the Arab countries believe that avoiding annexation is the best alternative to offer Palestine, as they realize that the stalemate in the conflict continues.  

Second, the intra-Arab concern. The GCC crisis continues to plague the Arab Gulf, and Qatar continues to be isolated. However, the US perceives the GCC crisis as an obstacle to fully realizing the fruits of its efforts towards the peace process. As a mediator, it is in Washington's interest to ensure that the intra-Arab issue does not affect Abraham Accords. In November, the US National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien said that ending the GCC crisis and lifting Qatar's blockade was a priority. 

Third, consolidation against Iran. At present, Iran is the primary rival in the region. Most countries are affected by the Iran-supported militias' activities in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are involved in a proxy war with Iran in Yemen. The interests of most Arab countries, Israel and the US converge around cornering Iran, and Abraham Accords is an apt tool. The Accords try to isolate Iran further. While addressing the GCC crisis's concerns, Robert O'Brien remarked that "it is in America's interest to have harmonious relationships within (GCC) because that provides an important counter-balance to Iran." 

Finally, is peace in the Middle East on the cards? Terming the Abraham Accords a peace deal is pre-mature at this point, as its effects are yet to trickle down and solidify. It is certainly a bilateral peace deal but not a peace plan for the region, and hence, there is a long way to go for the peaceful Middle East.
 

Print Bookmark

June 2026 | CWA # 2132

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:
June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal: 
June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

Conflicts in Africa This Week:
May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru

The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2126

Aparna A Nair | Aparna A Nair is a graduate from the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.

The Shenzhou-23 Mission:
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengalur

The Crisis in Cuba:
May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Associate at NIAS and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

The Ebola and the DR Congo:
May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The War in Ukraine:
May 2026 | CWA # 2121

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph | Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

Conflicts in Africa
May 2026 | CWA # 2116

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is currently pursuing undergraduate studies at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

India, the UAE, and PM Modi’s visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair | Aparna A Nair is a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The Putin-Xi Summit
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

What makes the UAE a global player?
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
May 2026 | CWA # 2112

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in international relations at Loyola College, Chennai. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Why does the Falkland Islands dispute keep recurring?
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Trump-Xi Summit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2109

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2108

Ada Khan | Ada Khan is an undergraduate at the Department of Political Science, Public Policy, and Media Studies, Mount Carmel College, Bengaluru.

The Africa Forward Summit 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2104

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East:
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

King Charles's US Visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur | Siddhi Halyur is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Public Policy and Journalism at St Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

US troop withdrawal from Germany:
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S | Dr Jenin Raj S is an Assistant Professor and Head of the Centre for Media, Department of Journalism, Mount Carmel College (Autonomous), Bengaluru.

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf, Postgraduate student, Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japans New Defence Posture:
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah | Ms Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and Assistant Editor of NIAS Conflict Weekly.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal | Mr Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS. He works on Pakistan and Africa.

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon | Dr Lakshmi Venugopal Menon is an academic and policy researcher specializing in Gulf studies, cultural heritage trafficking, geopolitics, migration, Afghan politics and the Taliban.

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

UK and China
February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The IndiaUS interim trade framework
February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan