NIAS Area Studies
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By Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
What happened?
On 23 June, Prigozhin, a long-time ally of Putin and the leader of the private army Wagner Group revolted, claiming that the Russian military had killed many of his fighters in an airstrike. The Russian Defence Ministry denied these claims. Prigozhin said: "There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in this country." He also threatened to destroy checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. On the same night, security in Russia was tightened, and the internet was restricted while military trucks were spotted on Moscow streets.
On 24 June, according to reports, the Wagner mercenaries had seized military facilities in Voronezh, a city halfway between Rostov and Moscow. Prigozhin said his fighters had entered Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine, and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way. Further, the Wagner group proclaimed that its mercenaries had seized all military facilities in Voronezh and added that they would march on Moscow to topple the defence minister Sergei Shoigu.
On the same day, President Putin made an emergency address, saying Russia was facing "treason." According to his statement: "All those who consciously stood on the part of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the part of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people." Prigozhin responded, saying that his troops were "patriots of our motherland," and the president was "deeply wrong" to talk of betrayal.
By 24 June evening, the Wagner fighters were advancing through the Lipetsk region, around 450 km from Moscow. The Wagner Group also announced that most Russian army units in the area were switching sides. There were also reports of Wagner fighters leaving the missions in Africa, and Syria, to join the revolt against Moscow. On the other hand, according to state reports, Russian air forces have struck Wagner convoys, and defensive positions around Moscow were set up.
In a late-night development on 24 June, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko broke a deal between Russia and the Wagner Group. Prigozhin agreed to halt his advance towards Moscow and relocate to Belarus. Through a Telegram post, he had ordered his forces to return to their bases to avoid bloodshed. Following the deal, the Wagner fighters initiated their departure from Rostov-on-Don, which served as the starting point of their mutiny. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, announced that the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and the Wagner fighters involved in the "march for justice" would not face the consequences due to their previous service to Russia. Non-participating fighters are expected to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry by 01 July as part of efforts to centralize volunteer forces. Specific concessions made to Prigozhin remain undisclosed.
What is the background?
First, the increasing tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian military. The differences between the two had been growing over how the war has been fought in Ukraine, with the Wagner group's strong criticisms of Russia's military leadership in recent months. Prigozhin repeatedly mentioned Russia's failure to provide sufficient ammunition, resulting in enormous casualties for the Wagner Group. The Wagner had threatened to withdraw from Bakhmut and complained about Russian military authorities for their incompetence. Prigozhin also blamed the Russian military leadership for attacking his men. The present escalation came after Prigozhin accused Russia's military of hitting his group's base in Ukraine. He threatened: "We are going onwards and we will go to the end. We will destroy everything that stands in our way."
Second, the Wagner complaints over the last few months. Since joining the Russian troops at Bakhmut, Prigozhin had complained against the military, accusing them of not supplying ammunition for his fighters. In February, Prigozhin shared an image of dead fighters and blamed the military leaders for their death. In March, in a video message, he claimed that his fighters were being "set up" as scapegoats to take the blame in case Russia lost the war. Also in March, he complained about not getting ammunition according to the agreement calling it: "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal." As the battle for Bakhmut raged on, so did Prigozhin's social media rants against the military top brass. In one of his social media posts, he said: "The shells are lying in warehouses, they are resting there…why are the shells lying in the warehouses? There are people who fight, and there are people who have learned once in their lives that there must be a reserve, and they save, save, save those reserves…Instead of spending a shell to kill the enemy, they kill our soldiers. And happy grandfather thinks this is okay." In another post, he said: "There was only Wagner here...We fought not only the Ukrainian army here, we fought Russian bureaucracy."
Third, the Belarus intervention. President Alexander Lukashenko, a close friend of President Putin, also has a long-standing personal connection with Yevgeny Prigozhin. He has played a mediating role in the agreement between Putin and Prigozhin. Initially, Putin had vowed to punish the mutineers, but the focus shifted towards avoiding further confrontation and bloodshed. Lukashenko's involvement in mediating the crisis highlights his influence and ties with Putin and the Wagner Group.
What does it mean?
First, the fractured equation between Wagner and Russia. The Wagner group is considered Russia's most effective unit among the mercenary groups. From its extensive role in Africa, Syria, in the Crimean annexation in 2014 to the battles in Soledar and Bakhmut in the Ukraine war, Prigozhin has been at the forefront for Russia. The relations began to crack when Russia grew dependent on the Wagner group. Russia's shortage of personnel and constraints to restrict new mobilization delegated Wagner's head to deploy his forces. Wagner group's major role in Soledar and Bakhmut battles showcased its capability, while the Russian military was criticized for not giving enough ammunition and being ineffective in holding control.
Second, the blow to bring the Wagner Group under the effective control of the Russian military. The Wagner's head did not accept the military's efforts to bring the mercenary units under one contract. The revolt could be seen as a reflection of unwillingness of the Wagner to work under direct Russian military command. This highlights an internal divide between supporters of Putin and Prigozhin and a more significant question to the leadership of Russia.
Third, the impact of the Wagner revolt on Russia's war in Ukraine. For Russia to fight in Ukraine, a new mobilization was launched to recruit more. The recruits and not-so-fully trained soldiers led to the gap between operations and command. Although there was not much awareness or objection against Russia on mobilization, Russia slowed down the recruitment to prevent domestic dissent. On the other hand, the Wagner was allowed to recruit prisoners across Russia and command better despite the shortage of equipment. Human resource is the strength of any war; Russia's operation in Ukraine will have consequences of Prigozhin leaving for Belarus. Ukraine will benefit from the recent development. The immediate impact will be on the Wagner units deployed inside Ukraine, which may pause their operations or stop fighting for Russia. The damage caused to the M4 highway, and Rostov-on-Don is crucial to Russia's offensive in southern Ukraine and can help Ukraine gain in its counter-offensive.
Fourth, Putin's reputation. As stated by Putin, the motive of the Ukraine invasion was to bring back USSR or reinstall Russia as a geopolitical power, but the fallouts of the war have been nothing but a backfire. From Finland joining NATO to minor incursions into Russia, the Wagner group's revolt should question Putin's reputation within Russia.
War in Ukraine: Day 486 & 487
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 24 June, Ukraine's air defence reported on a missile strike in Kyiv and Kharkiv. According to the report, 20 such missiles were destroyed in the airspace in Kyiv. Apart from the two cities, northern Sumy and Poltava and Dnipro were also subject to missile attacks.
On 24 June, Ukraine reported on the meeting held in Denmark to discuss its peace formula. According to an Agence France Presse spokesperson, the meeting aimed at a "lasting peace" for Ukraine. During the meeting, Ukraine was reported to have stressed the US to motivate Brazil, India, and South Africa to attend.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 24 June, the Wagner group marched (calling it "March for Justice") towards Moscow after claiming to have captured Rostov-on-Don. They accused the Russian army of attacking them.
During 24-25 June, in response to the Wagner's revolt, Russia implemented "anti-terror" measures by keeping combat-ready and imposed travel restrictions to protect civilians. The Wagner group was reported to have seized Rostov's military headquarters and exited through the Voronezh area upon the deal signed in the mediation of Belarus. The Voronezh governor said regular activities resumed after the Wagner troop's exit. Later, the Foreign Ministry of Russia reported on China's interest in standing for Russia in case of a revolt by the Wagner group.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 24 June, Germany announced sending Ukraine 45 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks by the end of 2023. According to the plan, 15 will be delivered by Germany and 30 with the support of the US.
On 25 June, on the Wagner revolt, US spokesperson Antony Blinken stated that the tension revealed the "cracks in the Russian façade." He said: "It may be that Putin didn't want to debase himself to the level of negotiating directly with Prigozhin." On the same day, Deutsche Welle reported on the death of 13 to 20 Russian soldiers in the Wagner revolt destruction of six helicopters by the Wagner fighters.
On 25 June, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda warned over the presence of the Wagner group in Belarus. He said that the ambiguity over the plans of the Wagner group in Belarus necessitates the strengthening of the eastern European borders.
References
Olha Hlushchenko, "NATO has to strengthen its eastern borders if Belarus accepts Prigozhin – Lithuanian President," pravda.com.ua, 26 June 2023
"Key moments of aborted Wagner revolt in Russia," RT, 25 June 2023
"Ukraine updates: Focus moves to Russia amid Wagner rebellion," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2023
"Wagner chief 'humiliated' Putin, Ukraine says," Deutsche Welle, 25 June 2023
"Wagner group withdraws from Russian positions after ending rebellion," France 24, 25 June 2023
John Ismay, "Blinken Says Wagner Rebellion Shows the Cracks in Putin's Power," The New York Times, 25 June 2023
Nectar Gan, "China throws support behind 'strategic partner' Russia after Wagner insurrection challenges Putin," CNN, 26 June 2023
In Brief
By Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran and Prerana P
FRANCE
President Emmanuel Macron to visit Marseille
On 26 June, Les Echos reported that President Emmanuel Macron would be on a three-day trip to Marseille to look into the Marseille plan launched in September 2021. The visit marks the end of self-imposed "hundred days" after the pension reforms protests. During his visit, the President will discuss education, transport, housing, security, and culture. (Gregoire Poussielgue, "Macron in Marseille to close his "hundred days" period," Les Echos, 25 June 2023)
GREECE
New Democracy party wins in the second round of elections
On 25 June, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's New Democracy party (ND) won a second victory in the Parliamentary election, with 40.5 per cent. The election consisted of 9.8 million, with 32 political parties represented. After the triumph, Mitsotakis announced: "The people have given us a safe majority. Major reforms will proceed rapidly." Earlier in the May elections, the party missed by five seats in forming a single majority party in Parliament. Mitsotakis's confidence over the bonus votes available in the second round called for another election. The Syrian party, considered the far-left received only 18 per cent vote, followed by PASOK with 13 per cent, KKE with seven per cent and the Spartans party received five per cent. The Syrian left party leader stated: "We have suffered a heavy electoral defeat." Mitsotakis promised a strong economy and combat unemployment rates under his leadership. Despite the election held during the shipwreck tragedy, the pre-election poll had predicted a victory for the New Democracy Party. Adding to it, Mitsotakis has promised a robust increase in wages. ("Greece election: Conservatives claim resounding victory," Deutsche Welle, 26 June 2023)
LATVIA
Strengthens eastern border control amidst Russian paramilitary rebellion
On 24 June, Latvia's Prime Minister KrišjÄnis Kariņš (New Unity) tweeted that due to the rebellion by the Russian paramilitary Wagner group, stricter control has been implemented along the eastern border. The Latvian government, along with relevant authorities and services, are closely monitoring the situation in Russia. Border control has been reinforced to ensure national security, and citizens are strongly advised against travelling to Russia or Belarus. Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars RinkÄ“viÄs (New Unity) also emphasized the importance of avoiding travel to Russia and urged those already there to leave. Internal Affairs Minister MÄris KuÄinskis requested increased border controls in coordination with the State Border Guard chief. The State Border Guard, along with Frontex and other Latvian services, are working intensively to conduct thorough inspections. If necessary, support from the National Armed Forces (NBS) will be sought, as Defence Minister InÄra MÅ«rniece (National Alliance) stated. ("Latvia's eastern border under enhanced control," eng.lsm.iv, 24 June 2023)
NORWAY
Not to close the border with Russia
On 25 June, NewsinEnglish.no reported on Norwegian officials' statement that they do not plan to close the border with Russia in the far north, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the military conflict within Russia. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre emphasized that the situation remains serious and unclear. Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt described the conflict as dangerous and urged Norwegians in Russia to leave. He emphasized that there is also uncertainty regarding an alleged agreement made by the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to end the rebellion in exchange for amnesty in Belarus. ("Norway keeps border to Russia open," NewsinEnglish.no, 25 June 2023)
REGIONAL
Finland's Sato Oyj downgraded amid Swedish real estate crisis and forest fire warnings
On 25 June, Helsinki Times reported that a Finnish real estate company, Sato Oyj, has been downgraded to junk status by Moody's Investors Service due to Sweden's real estate crisis. This downgrade is part of a larger trend affecting the Nordic region. Sato Oyj, which owns 25,000 apartments in Finland, is now among several companies facing financing difficulties. Moody's downgraded Sato's rating from investment grade to high-yield status, citing concerns about its interest coverage ratio, financing challenges, and the weakening position of its majority owner, Fastighets AB Balder. Meanwhile, forest fire warnings have been issued across Northern Europe, including Finland, due to dry conditions and rising temperatures. The lack of experience in dealing with droughts makes these countries vulnerable. ("Finland hit by Sweden real estates woes, wildfire warnings and digital detox island: Finland in the world press," Helsinki Times, 25 June 2023)
EU alert to border countries after the Wagner threat
On 24 June, the EU countries bordering Russia alerted their border security after the Wagner group threatened to enter Moscow. Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused Kremlin soldiers of the death of 1000 Wagner Group soldiers, while Putin called the move "treason". Estonia and Latvia have stepped up their border security, and Latvia has suspended visa applications and entry from Russia. Despite no direct threat, the EU countries have strengthened border security. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland have declared close cooperation over the incident. Further, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister stated: "The goal, as ever, is victory and justice for Ukraine. The time is now." (Victor Jack, "EU countries bordering Russia on alert after mutiny against Moscow," Politico, 24 June 2023)
CLIMATE
Swiss cities take on heat islands
On 25 June, Swissinfo.ch reported that cities in Switzerland were taking measures to tackle heat islands. Climate change is expected to intensify the situation. A commune guide for the canton of Fribourg stated: "Heat islands concern all communes, whether urban, semi-urban, rural or pre-Alpine…This phenomenon is set to increase dramatically over the coming decades, and we need to start preparing for it today." Swiss authorities have started implementing projects such as increasing vegetation cover, mapping vulnerable zones, installing micro-oases, misting systems, and replacing bitumen with grass and gravel surfaces in an effort to minimize the heat. ("Climate change: Swiss cities combat heat islands," Swissinfo.ch, 25 June 2023)
ECONOMY
ECB interest hikes and the inflation
On 24 June, Deutsche Welle reported on the Vice President of ECB, Luis de Guindos statement that recent interest rate hikes had impacted the economy and lowered inflation. ECB expects an inflation fall of 5.4 per cent, three per cent and two per cent in the upcoming consecutive years. During an interview, de Guindos stated that the ECB had raised the rates by 400 bases and would hold at around 2 per cent to stabilize. Energy and food prices have risen extensively during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The banks have decided to prioritize lowering inflation to improve their economy. The Baltic states have experienced massive inflation hikes as the marked regions are exposed to the Ukraine conflict. De Guindos reminded of government spending and borrowings lender's necessity to increase deposit rates instead, not just on loans to alleviate and stabilize the economy. ("ECB says 'finishing line in sight' on inflation, interest," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2023)
ENERGY
Germany to support Georgia's Hydrogen Project
On 25 June, Deutsche Welle reported on the EU's desire to import green electricity to Georgia and make the country less independent of Russia. Currently, 70 per cent of the country's electricity is nestled between Russia, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Georgian electricity producer has expected to increase the current 4,500 MW to 10,000 MW by 2023. Additional construction projects are new wind farms and photovoltaics etc. The German Engineering Firm has proposed transporting Caucasian green electricity via Turkey, as the electricity prices are triple and can fetch a vast windfall for Georgia. The GES board member Zviad stated: "Without such an open electricity market, no foreign investor will come." Additionally, Germany has decided to support the Georgian hydrogen project with a backup of EUR 1.5 million. (Oliver Ristau, "Georgia: A source of green energy for Europe?," Deutsche Welle, 25 June 2023)
ENVIRONMENT
Buy-out scheme to tackle pollution creates tensions in the Netherlands
On 25 June, The Guardian reported that Netherlands farmers are at a crossroads with the government over a new buyout scheme to reduce nitrogen-based pollution. The scheme was introduced after reports showed that nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide emissions from transports and ammonia from farming exceeded the EU threshold. A 2020 commission report proposed asking 500-600 livestock farmers to shut down their businesses within a year. 3000 "peak polluter" livestock farmers are offered EURO 975 million for voluntary buy-outs. The scheme, which begins on 3 July, has been received well by environmentalists. (Senay Boztas, "Farmers on frontline as Dutch divided by war on nitrogen pollution," The Guardian, 25 June 2023)
MIGRATION
Frontex has considered a temporary suspension of the Mediterranean tragedy
On 24 June, Politico reported that the EU Border and Coast Guard has considered suspending temporarily on Greece's activities. Tensions widened between the EU agency and Athens over the role of dealing with the tragedy. Various critics have blamed the Greek authorities for the delay, which has caused the death of numerous lives. On the contrary, Greek authorities have denied the accusations. Frontex has reportedly initiated the requirement of potential human rights violation recordings. (Varg Folkman, "Frontex consider suspending activities in Greece: Report," Politico, 24 June 2023)
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Meta to conduct "stress test" of new EU content rules
On 23 June, following a meeting with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton reported that Meta had agreed to "stress test" the new EU digital rules in July. The EU's Digital Services Act will come into effect from August. Major tech companies will have to comply with the new rules to tackle online hate speech, disinformation, and illegal content. (Varg Folkman, "Meta agrees to July' stress test' on new EU content rules," Politico, 24 June 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
China sides with Russia on Wagner issue
On 26 June, The Guardian reported that China called the Wagner rebellion Russia's "internal affairs." On 24 June, a Chinese-state-owned newspaper stated that the reports around the internal divide in Russia were an "illusion" being propagated by Western media to strike at Russia's unity. China added, "As a friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner in the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity." On 25 June, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko held discussions in Beijing, although the date and purpose of his arrival were unclear. ("China downplays Wagner rebellion as Russia's 'internal affairs'," The Guardian, 26 June 2023)