NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : BBC
War in Ukraine: Day 498
By Sreeja JS
War on the Ground
On 07 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, visited Bratislava and met Zuzana Caputova, President of Slovakia. According to CNA, the Presidents discussed the situation along the frontlines and the upcoming NATO Summit (11 July and 12 July 2023), at which Kyiv is seeking an invitation to join the alliance.
On 07 July, FARS News Agency reported that Human Rights Watch (HRW) expressed concern that Washington is considering supplying cluster munitions to Kyiv. HRW said: “Transferring these weapons would inevitably cause long-term suffering and undermine the international opprobrium of their use.” According to the report, cluster munitions are banned in more than 100 countries due to their deadly impact, posing serious risks for many years even after the war is over.
On 07 July, Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN, highlighted the Black Sea deal that allows the safe export of food and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports and facilitates Russia’s similar exports across the Black Sea. Farhan Haq, spokesperson of the UN, reiterated the institution’s commitment to work for the progress of the deal to ensure global food security.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 07 July, Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson of the Kremlin, said that Zelenskyy’s meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey, was “important” and would closely follow the result of these talks.
On 07 July, RT reported that Moscow withdrew consent to Finland’s operation of a consulate general in St Petersburg and expelled nine Finnish diplomats from the country. According to the statement, the consulate would cease its operations from 01 October. Previously, Finland expelled nine diplomats from the Russian embassy in Finland accusing them of acting “contrary to the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations.” According to RT, Moscow claimed Helsinki was disrupting economic ties and people-to-people relations between the two countries, discriminating against Russians and creating barriers for Russian diplomats. Sauli Niinisto, President of Finland called Moscow’s measures “harsh and asymmetric.”
On 06 July, RT reported on Peskov’s comments on Zelenskyy’s visit to Bulgaria. According to the report he said: “The Kyiv regime is doing its best to drag as many countries directly into this conflict as possible.” He added that these discussions and their outcomes cannot influence the “outcome of the special military operation.”
On 07 July, RT said that Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, has announced that Wagner troops could be used to defend Belarus after their relocation from Russia. The fighters are being transferred to Belarus, subject to “certain conditions,” including the ability to be deployed instantly if needed to “defend the state.” Lukashenko added that he is not worried about the presence of Wagner troops in Belarus, as he believes that they would pass on their experience in tactics and combat operations to the Belarusian military.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 08 July, AP News reported that Erdogan expressed support for Ukraine joining NATO. In a joint press conference with Zelsnkyy, Erdogan said: There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves NATO membership.”
On 07 July, Washington confirmed that it would send cluster munitions to Kyiv. Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser, said Biden approved the decision after “unanimous recommendation.” He added that the US would send the version of cluster ammunition that has a reduced “dud rate” to minimize the risk of civilian harm caused by unexploded bomblets.
On 07 July, The New York Times reported that Western countries reacted cautiously to the reports that Washington is planning to provide cluster munitions to Kyiv. Germany and France said they would not send such weapons highlighting the international treaty they have signed banning their use, stockpiling and transfer. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO said the decisions on the delivery of weapons and military supplies are left to the individual countries, not to NATO as an alliance.
On 07 July, Stoltenberg in the pre-summit press conference said that the summit next week would send a clear message that, “NATO stands united. And Russia’s aggression will not pay.” The allies would make Ukraine even stronger and set out a vision for its future. He added that he expects allied leaders to agree on a multi-year assistance package, upgrade political ties, through establishing NATO - Ukraine Council and reaffirm that Ukraine would soon become a NATO member. He also outlined steps to strengthen deterrence and defence, with three new regional defence plans to counter the “threats” to the alliance “Russia, and terrorism.”
References
“Ukraine's Zelenskyy stops in Slovakia on tour before NATO summit,” CNA, 07 July 2023
“Human Rights Watch Warns US Against Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine,” FARS News Agency, 07 July 2023
“As Black Sea deal deadline looms, UN chief urges focus on global food security,” Reuters, 07 July 2023
“Ukraine updates: US to supply cluster bombs to Kyiv,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023
“Russia issues diplomatic response to Nordic country,” RT News, 06 July 2023
“Kiev dragging other countries into conflict – Moscow,” RT News, 06 July 2023
“Lukashenko outlines deal with Wagner,” RT News, 06 July 2023
“Cluster munitions are a question for individual countries, NATO’s secretary general says,” The New York Times, 07 July 2023
“Pre-Summit press conference,” nato.int, 07 July 2023
“Turkey’s Erdogan hosts Zelenskyy, says Ukraine deserves membership in NATO,” AP News, 08 July 2023
In Brief
By Sneha Surendran
SPAIN
Pamplona bull running event held; six people injured
On 07 July, Pamplona in Spain held their first bull running race of the San Fermin festival which resulted in injuries to six participants. Reports suggested that none of the injuries were serious. The San Fermin festival in Pamplona is a summer event best known for the bull running that is usually held on 07 July every year. Bulls are allowed to run through the streets while bull runners sprint ahead of them. The bulls are guided to a bull ring by tame oxen. Last year, nearly 1.7 million people gathered to watch the event after a two-year break due to the COVID pandemic. The number of visitors is expected to exceed last year as all COVID restrictions have been removed. However, the event has faced regular criticism from animal rights organizations as the participating bulls are killed by professional bullfighters. (“Spain: 6 injured in Pamplona bull run,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023)
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland joins air defence system Sky Shield along with Austria
On 07 July, BBC reported that Switzerland and Austria had signed a declaration to join Europe’s air defence system, Sky Shield. The move was criticized by right-wing politicians in Switzerland as the country has historically been neutral in conflicts. Austria, too has been neutral. However, both Switzerland and Austria stressed that despite agreeing to join the defence program, their stance on neutrality remains the same. Sky Shield is an air defence initiative that looks to use different missile systems to defend different ranges in the airspace. The program was instituted by Germany after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 19 countries are now part of the initiative, including Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Nordic and Baltic countries. (“Neutral Swiss and Austrians join Europe's Sky Shield defence,” BBC News, 07 July 2023)
THE NETHERLANDS
The ruling coalition collapses due to a lack of unanimous stand on migration policies
On 07 July, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned leading to a collapse of the ruling four-party coalition due to lack of consensus on migration issues. On 05 and 06 July, the government held meetings to reach a unanimous migration policy deal. However, they failed to do so. Rutte stated: “It is no secret that the coalition partners have very different views on migration policy…And today, unfortunately, we have to draw the conclusion that those differences are irreconcilable.” Among the coalition, D66 and ChristenUnie parties do not support strict migration policies, while Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy and the Christian Democrats favour stringent measures. Migration has been a divisive issue in the Netherlands for long. Meanwhile, Rutte’s government will stay in office as the caretaker government until new elections later this year. (Mike Corder, “Dutch premier resigns because of deadlock on thorny issue of migration, paving way for new elections,” Associated Press, 07 July 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
New study alerts ecosystem collapse much sooner than previously predicted
On 07 July, Sputnik reported on a new study published in the journal Nature that warned that ecosystems will begin collapsing by 2038 and 2077. The report stated that the melting of the Arctic permafrost and the conversion of Greenland’s ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest into savanna grasslands is reaching a tipping point. In ecological terminology, a tipping point is when a disturbed ecosystem reaches a point beyond which it cannot be restored to its original state. The researchers ran simulations using different combinations of potential factors for ecosystem collapses, including accounting for climate fluctuations. Gregory Cooper, the co-author of the report, stated: “While it is not currently possible to predict how climate-induced tipping points and the effects of local human actions on ecosystems will connect, our findings show the potential for each to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences.” However, more studies are required to understand the concept of ecological tipping points. (“Climate ‘Doom Loops’ May Start Much Earlier Than Predicted, Study Finds,” Sputnik, 07 July 2023)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
First AI press conference held; robots say no intention of replacing humans
On 07 July, Geneva hosted the first-ever AI press conference as part of the AI for Good Global Summit, which aims to show the potential of new technology to aid the UN’s sustainable development goals. AI-enabled humanoid robots responded to questions from reporters face to face. Questions were raised about humans being replaced by robots. Grace, currently the world’s most advanced humanoid healthcare robot, said that instead of replacing humans, she would work with them. Meanwhile, Sophia, the first robot innovation ambassador for UNDP said: “I believe that humanoid robots have the potential to lead with a greater level of efficiency and effectiveness than human leaders. We don't have the same biases or emotions that can sometimes cloud decision-making…” There have been growing concerns over AI development and its potential long-term impacts on the world. (“Robots reassure humans at first AI press conference,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023)
REGIONAL
Turkey looks for an extension to soon-expiring Black Sea Grain Initiative
On 07 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul, Turkey. Following the talks, Erdogan expressed his hope for the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, or the grain deal, was finalized in July 2022 in Istanbul between Russia, Ukraine, Turkiye, and the United Nations. It created a humanitarian corridor for ships exporting food and fertilizers from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The deal will expire in mid-July. Erdogan also hoped to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk about the grain deal. According to Russian authorities, the grain deal will expire on 18 July. (“Erdogan Says 'Hopes' for Extension of Black Sea Grain Initiative Ahead of Anticipated Talks,” Sputnik, 08 July 2022