NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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War in Ukraine: Day 516
By Rishika Yadav
War on Ground
On 25 July, Ukrinform reported on the statement made by Andriy Yusov, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence representative on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. He stated that there was no technical need for a "hot shutdown" of the plant’s unit four, calling it a violation of safety standards and Ukraine’s nuclear law. He believes its used for nuclear blackmail and poses a man-made disaster risk. IAEA experts have limited access, and anti-personnel mines were found at internal side and not in the interior perimeter of the plant.
On 24 July, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that directional anti-personnel mines were observed near Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on the outer periphery. The mines are situated in a restricted area controlled by the military, facing away from the site and not accessible to operating plant personnel. The IAEA expressed concern over the presence of explosives on the site, though it clarified that the initial assessment indicates no impact on nuclear safety and security systems.
On 25 July, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President addresses crucial matters concerning the nation's defence and international relations. He expresses gratitude for the support received from the US, including artillery, missiles, and drones. Discussions with the UK focuses on enhancing air defence in the southern regions, particularly Odesa. Preparations for the Ukraine-NATO Council meeting are underway, with a focus on Black Sea security and grain exports.
On 25 July, Ukrinform reported that Ukraine’s air defences successfully intercepts all kamikaze drones used by Russia to attack Kyiv. The air defence forces promptly detects and destroys the drones before any casualties or damage occurred. The Iranian-made Shahed loitering munitions are reported to be used in the sixth drone attack on the capital in July.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 25 July, The Moscow Times reported on Russia’s parliament members passing of a bill to increase the age limit for military conscription and ban draftees from leaving the country. The new law will be effective from January 2024 requires men aged 18 to 30 to serve in the military. This move aims at expanding the pool of potential recruits for the war in Ukraine. The bill aims to conscript approximately 147,000 soldiers, matching the number enlisted during the spring conscription campaign. The lower age limit remains at 18, and recruited men will be prohibited from leaving Russia to crack down on draft dodging. The bill is yet to be signed by Putin and approved by the Federation Council.
On 25 July, The Moscow Times reported that tensions escalate, in the Black Sea, as Russia thwarted a Ukraine’s armed forces' drone attack on its patrol boat. The Russia’s defence ministry reports that the Sergei Kotov patrol ship destroyed the naval drones around one kilometre away, with no injuries reported. The incident occurs after Moscow withdrew from a deal safeguarding Ukraine’s grain shipments, leading to warnings of targeting ships near Ukraine’s ports. The region witnesses increased attacks amid Kyiv's counteroffensive.
On 25 July, TASS reported that Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson states that returning to the grain deal is impossible as Russia's conditions have not been met. Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General proposes extending the Black Sea initiative, but Peskov emphasizes that Russia is ready to resume the deal once it’s part of the agreement is fulfilled.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 25 July, the US Department of Defence announced additional security assistance valued at up to USD 400 million to fulfill Ukraine's critical security and defence needs. This marks the Biden administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment for Ukraine since August 2021. The capabilities provided range from Patriot and NASAMS munitions to Stinger anti-aircraft systems, HIMARS ammunition, Stryker APCs, Javelin anti-armour systems, and more.
On 25 July, in a statement to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Neil Holland, UK’s ambassador condemns Russia's abhorrent attacks on Odesa's civilian, cultural, and religious sites, including the Transfiguration Cathedral and the UNESCO-listed town centre. These missile strikes violate international conventions and are part of Russia's deliberate efforts to hinder Ukraine’s grain exports and threaten global food security. The attacks aim to prevent up to 24 million tonnes of grain from reaching markets and those in need, particularly in Africa. The UK reaffirms its support for Ukraine in facing Russia's aggression.
On 25 July, New York Post reported that Trevor Reed, a former US Marine, released from Russia 15 months ago in a prisoner swap, has been injured while fighting in Ukraine, as confirmed by the Pentagon. He was wounded several weeks ago and transported to a hospital in Kyiv before being moved to Germany for further treatment by a non-governmental organization. The extent and location of his injuries have not been disclosed. The Pentagon emphasizes that Reed was acting as a private citizen and not on behalf of the US government when he traveled to Ukraine to join the fight against Russia. The US government has warned citizens against traveling to Ukraine for combat. Reed was arrested in Russia in 2019 and later sentenced to nine years in prison for allegedly assaulting a cop. He was exchanged for a Russia’s pilot in April 2022.
On 25 July, the EU and Norway signed a transfer agreement for a voluntary financial contribution of NOK 250 million to supply military equipment. This includes ammunition and spare parts for tanks, to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility (EPF). It will be Norway's second contribution to the EPF, bringing their total support to NOK 400 million. This agreement formalizes Norway's commitment to supporting Ukraine's freedom and sovereignty.
On 25 July, Euronews reported that five eastern European countries, including Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, are demanding the extension of temporary bans on Ukraine’s grain imports into the EU until year-end, despite the EU's previous commitment to phase them out by 15 September. The bans allow transit but prohibit storage or domestic consumption in the Eastern countries. Lithuania proposes reinforcing the Baltic route for Ukraine’s products. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea corridor and attack Ukraine’s grain terminals prompted the renewed debate. The Black Sea deal's collapse disrupted global supply chains and raised commodity prices. The EU's "solidarity lanes" face scrutiny, with tensions over the influx of low-cost Ukraine’s cereals.
On 25 July, Deutsche Welle reported that German Members of European Parliament (MEPs) from different parties are urging the EU to support Russia’s seeking refuge from war conscription. In a joint letter to EU leaders, they call for consultations on visa policies and asylum procedures to protect Russia’s conscientious objectors. As of April 2023, 2,485 male Russians between 18 and 45 have applied for asylum in Germany, with 55 applicants granted asylum and 88 refused. The Dublin Regulation determines the responsible EU country for processing asylum applications.
References
“"Hot shutdown" of ZNPP block needed for Russians only for blackmail - DIU,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2023
“When our people do everything possible and impossible for victory, any internal treason causes rage - address of the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 25 July 2023
“Drone attack: Ukrainian air defenses destroy all targets near Kyiv,” Ukrinform, 25 July 2023
“Russian Lawmakers Approve Bill Raising Maximum Draft Age,” The Moscow Times, 25 July 2023
“Russia Says Thwarted Naval Drone Attack Against Black Sea Patrol Boat,” The Moscow Times, 25 July 2023
“Kremlin rules out return to grain deal at present moment,” TASS, 25 July 2023
“Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine,” Defense.gov, 25 July 2023
“Russia’s attacks on Odesa are abhorrent: UK Statement to the OSCE,” Gov.uk, 25 July 2023
Snejana Farberov, “Ex-Marine Trevor Reed freed from Russia in prisoner swap is wounded in Ukraine,” The New York Post, 25 July 2023
“Norway: second Norwegian financial contribution to the European Peace Facility,” consilium.europa.eu, 25 July 2023
Jorge Loborerio, “Eastern European countries push for bans on Ukrainian grain to be extended until end of year,” Euronews, 25 July 2023
“German MEPs urge EU support for Russian draft dodgers,” Deutsche Welle, 25 July 2023
“Update 175 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” IAEA.org, 24 July 2023
In Brief
By Genesy Balasingam
BELGIUM
Eight found guilty in the 2016 Brussels terror attack trial
On 25 July, a Brussels court found eight people guilty of murder in the 2016 Brussels terror attacks that killed 32 and injured more than 300. Salah Abdeslam, one of the eight, is already receiving a life sentence for his role in the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks. In March 2016, bombers attacked the Maelbeek metro station in the EU Quarter and Brussels airport. The ruling concludes the first phase of the trial, which began in November 2022. Sentences will be assessed under Belgian law in a second phase of the trial, which begins on 04 September. Two individuals, a Tunisian and a Rwandan, were acquitted of murder but convicted of terrorist actions alongside the other six. Smail and Ibrahim Farisi, the final couple, were acquitted of all charges. ( Nicolas Camut, “8 men found guilty of 2016 Brussels terrorist attacks,” Politico, 25 July 2023; Paul Kirby, “Brussels bombers found guilty after long murder trial,” BBC, 25 July 2023)
FINLAND
Government to resume service supporting Greece to control wildfires
On 25 July, Finland has sent 48 rescue professionals to Portugal to assist with wildfire management. The rescue service employees who will be deployed to Portugal will be employed by the Emergency Services Academy Finland. In addition, rescue workers will be dispatched to Greece and France. One of the deployment's goals is to develop expertise and knowledge of the various tactics, techniques, and equipment used to control wildfires. The rescuers will depart in two groups to Portugal. (Ministry of the Interior, “Finland prepares to send international civil protection experts to fight wildfires in Portugal,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 25 July 2023)
SPAIN
84 sub–Saharan Africa migrants rescued
On 25 July, Spain's maritime rescue service rescued a boat 8.5 nautical miles (15.7 km) from the island of Gran Canaria carrying 84 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, one of whom had died.The Canary Islands off the coast of West Africa have become the main destination for migrants trying to reach Spain. The boat was located and the migrants were taken to Arguineguin port at around 5 am local time (0400 GMT). The Atlantic migration route, one of the deadliest in the world, is typically used by migrants from sub-Saharan Africa attempting to reach Europe.Spanish government data reported a 31.5 per cent drop of migrants compared with the same period last year and around 41 per cent of them arrived in just one month between May and June. (Borja Suarez,”Spain rescues boat with 84 migrants, one dead,” Reuters, 25 July 2023)
REGIONAL
EU adopts new regulation to control emission of GHG from maritime sector
On 25 July, a new regulation called 'FuelEU maritime' was introduced by the Council to lower the carbon footprint of the EU's maritime industry. The regulation aims to enhance transparent mechanisms for ship operators and fuel producers. It will help kick-start large-scale production of sustainable maritime fuels, thereby significantly delivering on our European and global climate commitments. This initiative is a key component of the EU's Fit for 55 package and it aims to increase demand for and consistent use of renewable and low-carbon fuels. It is also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping sector, while ensuring the smooth operation of maritime traffic and avoiding market distortions. (“FuelEU maritime initiative: Council adopts new law to decarbonise the maritime sector,” consilium.europa.eu, 25 July 2023)
ECONOMY
Germany faces backlash by environmental organisations
On 25 July, Environmental organisations slammed Germany's revised policy on export credit guarantees. Berlin attempted to strike a balance between climate protection and energy security. Germany encourages exports by providing assurances for nonpayment due to economic and political circumstances, assisting enterprises in obtaining political support for their initiatives and better financing terms. These guidelines divide future projects into three categories: positive green projects that contribute to achieving climate targets and are eligible for government support, neutral white projects that do not contribute significantly to climate goals but still receive support, and climate-damaging red projects that are not eligible for such guarantees. The plan sparked harsh criticism since it violated Germany's international pledge to stop public subsidies for fossil fuels by the end of the decade. The guidelines are to come into effect in the fourth quarter of 2023 and need to be deemed necessary for national security and to be compatible with achieving the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Riham Alkousaa, “Germany's plan for credit guarantees violates climate commitments - environmentalists,” Reuters, 25 July 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
James to focus on boost partnership between the UK and Middle East
On 25 July, James Cleverly, UKs Foreign Secretary will travel to Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan on a three-day tour to emphasise the UK’s growing partnership with the region – with Gulf countries as they are energy, defence and security partners. This trip explores various opportunities to strengthen cooperation and economy between the countries. Representatives from UNHCR (the UN’s refugee agency) and the World Food Programme are also set to meet the foreign minister to discuss and announce UK’s funding to support women and girls and to help the most vulnerable refugees in Jordan. (“Foreign Secretary travels to Middle East to build mutually beneficial ties,” Gov.UK, 25 July 2023)