NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS
In Focus
Peace talks in Saudi Arabia: Moscow's response and China’s renewed interest
By Sreeja JS
On 04 and 05 August, Saudi Arabia hosted Ukraine peace talks in Jeddah, attended by delegates from 42 countries and the UN. Russia was not invited to the talks. According to Ukraine’s government, the delegates agreed that any peace treaty to end Russia’s war against Ukraine must be rooted in respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the UN Charter.
Andriy Yermark, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said: “We had very productive consultations on the key principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built.” Later, he mentioned that the implementation of the “peace formula is part of Ukraine’s victory strategy and the meeting in Jeddah will go down in history.”
Li Hui, China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs, said: “We have many disagreements and we have heard different positions, but it is important that our principles are shared,” underscoring China’s renewed commitment to support the peace talks.
Celso Amorim, Brazil’s Chief Presidential Adviser, said: “Any real negotiation must include all parties. Although Ukraine is the biggest victim, if we really want peace, we have to involve Moscow in this process somehow.” Previously, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s President, rejected the meeting calling it “pointless” unless Russia was present.
Ukraine's aim
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, first announced his ten-point peace formula at a G20 summit held in November 2022. The formula includes proposals for Russia’s complete withdrawal from Ukraine’s territory, restoration of pre-war borders, a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for its war crimes, and the prevention of escalation of conflict. The meeting in Jeddah was the second in the series, with a similar meeting held earlier in Copenhagen (June 2023) where the formula could not garner the support it received now. In Jeddah, Ukraine reiterated the importance of the peace formula and the need to draft principles to end the conflict. Renewing the diplomatic offensive, Zelenskyy engaged with the delegates from the ‘Global South’ countries such as Brazil, India, China, South Africa and the oil-rich Gulf countries who largely remained neutral.
Moscow’s response
Moscow’s response to the ten-point peace plan and the Jeddah meeting remains the same; no talks would be successful without acknowledging Russia’s concerns. On 31 July, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, commented that Moscow would closely follow the meeting in Jeddah. He added that any attempts to promote a peaceful settlement are “worthy of a positive assessment.” On 07 August, Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, remarked that “...without Russia’s participation and without taking into account its interest, no meeting on the Ukraine crisis has any added value.” The response of Russia is lukewarm, and despite its willingness to start negotiations, actual efforts are yet to be seen. Further, Vladimir Putin recently said there could be no cease-fire while Ukraine’s forces are on the offensive without rejecting the idea of peace talks over Ukraine.
China’s interest
China was at the centre stage of the Jeddah meeting as a probable diplomatic success story for Ukraine. Previously, China refrained from attending a similar meeting in Copenhagen. China’s renewed interest follows its proposal of a 12-point peace plan in February 2023. Putin said the plan could become viable if the West and Ukraine are ready to dialogue and negotiate. This peace plan proposed by Beijing aimed to portray itself as a neutral actor and a potential mediator. It called for respect for the UN Charter, balanced European security architecture, cessation of hostilities, conflict resolution through dialogue and negotiation, and an end to unilateral sanctions. Despite the stark criticisms raised against it, the initiative necessarily denotes a shift in Beijing’s approach from abstaining to initiate the dialogue. One of the reasons could be to project itself as a responsible global power. For Ukraine and West, China's engagement is a win despite its future, given the larger role it can play in the negotiating table because of its close relations with Russia.
References
Angus McDowall, "Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed," Reuters, 06 August 2023
Veronika Melkozerova, "Kyiv says Jeddah participants back Ukraine territorial integrity in a peace deal," Politico.eu, 06 August 2023
"Saudi Arabia kicks off Ukraine talks that exclude Russia," Al Jazeera, 05 August 2023
Lawrence Norman and Stephen Kalin, "Saudi Arabia to Host Ukraine Peace Talks as Part of Western Effort to Woo Global South," Wall Street Journal, 29 July 2024
"Peace talks without Russia have no value – Moscow," RT News, 07 August 2023
Xinlu Liang, "China takes cautious line on Saudi-led Ukraine talks but Russia still the big bear not in the room: analysts," South China Morning Post, 07 August 2023
Laurie Chen and Martin Quin Pollard, "Analysis: China's Ukraine peace-talks gambit shows shift in approach," Reuters, 06 August 2023
Kawala Xie, “Explainer | China’s Ukraine peace plan: what does it say and what are its chances of success?” South China Morning Post, 27 April 2023
War in Ukraine: Day 532
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on Ground
On 09 August, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported the spike in deaths in Pokrovsk after a missile attack by Russia. Zelenskyy accused Russia of launching Iskander missiles to target rescue workers. The same was confirmed by Ukraine’s military administration on the death of 82 after the attack. Russia’s Defence Ministry had claimed on the attack on 08 August, stating a strike on Ukraine’s command post in Pokrovsk.
On 09 August, Ukraine’s spokesperson Mykhailo Podolyak denied Russia’s accusation on Ukraine for attacking Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using a drone. He said: “Ukraine did not carry out any kind of drone attack on the ZNPP, was not planning and will not even in theory do so.” Earlier, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a nuclear fuel storage of the plant.
On 09 August, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister announced the re-opening of the humanitarian corridor between Russia and Ukraine which was closed after the war. The decision comes after refugees found it difficult to cross front line and have entered EU countries like Georgia instead of Ukraine.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 09 August, TASS reported an explosion at Zagorsk, a optical-mechanical factory located 50 kilometres northeast of Moscow. According to the report, 60 were injured and 38 apartment blocks had been damaged. The factory is the key manufacturer of precision optical devices for Russia’s military such as night vision goggles, binoculars, and for police.
Moscow’s Mayer Sergei Sobyanin reported on shooting down of two combat drones targeted towards Moscow. According to the report: “An attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack by unmanned aerial vehicles over the territory of the Moscow Region was thwarted during the night.” This will be the third consecutive drone attack into Moscow since August. Russia appointed governor in Donetsk reported on Ukraine shelling in the eastern Donbas resulting in death of a child and injury of two people.
On 09 August, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Russia will be increasing its military in the western borders, especially Finland and Poland. Shoigu pointed that the move was in caution with NATO ‘s move to deploy forces and weaponry in Finland and Poland’s movement of military forces to its border.
On 09 August, TASS reported on multiple exchange of air and artillery strikes in direction of Kupyansk, Lugansk, Mankovka, Krasny Liman, and Zaporizhzhia between Russia and Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 09 August, Poland’s government announced to send additional 2,000 soldiers to its eastern border shared with Belarus. It is due to increasing fears after movement of the Wagner group into Belarus. Apart from the security threat, Poland also faces the problem of refugees from Africa, and the Middle-East who have been trying to enter Poland through Belarus. According to its President, Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has been conducting military exercises in both sides of the border.
On 09 August, an arms producing German company, Rheinmetall announced to provide Ukraine 50 Leopard 1 tanks. The company bought the weapons system earlier from a Belgian company called OIP Land Systems, and re-equipped it in Germany. Leopard 2 was earlier agreed by Germany along with Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine. Comparing both, Leopard 2 is slightly advanced in terms of calibre, speed, and engine type. Leopard 2 has a calibre of 120 mm, whereas Leopard 1 has only 105 mm. In speed, Leopard 2 is seven kilometres per hours speeder than Leopard 1.
References
“Russian forces press ahead with advance in Kupyansk area, top brass reports,” TASS, 09 August 2023
“Russian defense ministry reports Kiev’s failed attempted attack on Moscow Region by drones,” TASS, 09 August 2023
“Ukraine updates: Russia downs drones headed for Moscow,” Deutsche Welle, 09 August 2023
Polina Ivanova, “Blast rocks Russian military optics plant near Moscow,” Financial Times, 09 August 2023
“Child killed, two injured by shelling in Donetsk - Russian-installed official,” Reuters, 09 August 2023
“Russia launches deadly rocket attack on city of Zaporizhzhia,” France24, 09 August 2023
“Russia to build up forces at western borders to counter NATO threat, defence minister Sergei Shoigu says,” Sky News, 09 August 2023
“Poland to send 2,000 troops to reinforce Belarus border,” Reuters, 09 August 2023
Gaëlle Girbes and Marc Santora, “A Missile Strikes the Heart of a Ukrainian City — and Then Another,” The New York Times, 08 August 2023
In Brief
By Rishika Yadav
NORWAY
Southern Norway dam partially bursts amidst heavy rain and landslides
On 09 August, days of heavy rainfall triggering landslides and floods in southern Norway led to the partial bursting of a dam, forcing downstream communities to evacuate. Initially considering a controlled explosion to alleviate pressure, authorities abandoned the idea as water breached the dam at the Braskereidfoss hydroelectric power plant. The Norwegian Prime Minister warned of ongoing flooding risks, stating this could be the highest water level in 50 years. Dam generators failed due to a power grid outage, causing water to overflow and damage the power station. Storm Hans, affecting Scandinavia and the Baltics, was linked to extreme weather. Scientists highlight the challenge of old dams against intensified rainfall and potential climate change impact. (Jan M. Olsen, “Dam in Norway partially bursts after days of heavy rain, flooding and evacuations,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)
THE UK
Seven foreign ships being detained after failing inspections
On 09 August, the UK's Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) reported that seven foreign-flagged ships were detained in UK ports in July due to failed Paris MOU Port State Control (PSC) inspections. The MCA also noted five new detentions during the month. This action is in line with Lord Donaldson's inquiry recommendations to prevent pollution from merchant shipping. The Paris MOU, a regional port state control agreement, aids inspections and targets high-risk vessels for future assessments using the THETIS electronic database. Inspections, conducted by MCA surveyors, identify non-compliance, potentially leading to detention. The list provides ship details, company information, classification society, recognized organization, and flag state. Grounds for detention and other deficiencies are also outlined. The detention of foreign ships underscores the importance of stringent inspections to ensure maritime safety and environmental protection. (“Foreign flagged ships detained in the UK during July 2023 under Paris MOU,” gov.uk, 09 August 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Storm 'Hans' ravages Scandinavia
On 09 August, Deutsche Welle reported that the powerful storm 'Hans' swept across Scandinavia, unleashing strong winds and heavy rain that triggered landslides, infrastructure damage, and evacuations. The storm hit Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland, disrupting power, flooding villages, and halting public transport. Mud and rocks from overflowing streams damaged roads and homes in northwestern Sweden. Denmark's northern parts faced storm winds complicating wildfire containment. The storm's impact underscores the region's vulnerability to extreme weather events. (“Storm 'Hans' batters Scandinavia,” Deutsche Welle, 09 August 2023)
ECONOMY
Italian bank stocks plunge as 40 per cent tax on profits approved
On 09 August, according to Associated Press, Italian bank stocks faced sharp declines after the approval of a proposal to impose a 40 per cent tax on certain bank profits this year. The tax aims to assist consumers and businesses grappling with higher borrowing costs caused by European Central Bank interest rate hikes. Major banks like UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Banco BPM, BPER, and Banca MPS experienced stock drops on the Milan Stock Exchange. The Italian finance ministry justified the tax, stating it aligns with existing European rules on extra bank margins. Analysts anticipate banks will challenge or seek amendments to the proposal during parliamentary approval. The unexpected tax announcement triggered significant stock declines for Italian banks, hinting at potential opposition from the banking sector during the upcoming parliamentary process. (Nicole Winfield, “Italy proposed a bank tax to help people with interest rate hikes. The move sent stocks plunging,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)
ENVIRONMENT
Stagnation in European freshwater biodiversity
On 09 August, the Federal Council of Switzerland reported that an international team, including a researcher from Eawag, has published a study in the journal Nature focusing on the biodiversity of European inland waters based on invertebrates. The study reveals that biodiversity in river systems across 22 countries increased significantly since 1968, but this positive trend has stalled since 2010, as many rivers struggle to fully regenerate due to ongoing pressures like pollution, climate change, and invasive species. The research underscores the need for further measures to restore freshwater biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of combating pollutants, linking floodplains, and adapting river systems to changing conditions. The study provides valuable insights into the state of European freshwater biodiversity and the need for sustained conservation efforts to counter ongoing threats, echoing global concerns over ecological degradation in aquatic ecosystems.(“First recovery, then stagnation: The state of biodiversity in European bodies of water,” admin.ch, 09 August 2023)
MIGRATION
Calamitous migrant shipwreck: Lampedusa
On 09 August, according to Politico, the Italian island of Lampedusa witnessed a tragic shipwreck as a small boat carrying migrants capsized in the Strait of Sicily. Forty one migrants, including three children, lost their lives, while four survivors were rescued by a Maltese cargo ship. The survivors recounted that a seven metre metal boat carrying 45 migrants had left Sfax, Tunisia. After about six hours, it capsized due to a large wave, leading to the tragic incident. The bodies of the deceased migrants have not yet been recovered. The International Organization for Migration reports that 2,387 people have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean this year while attempting to reach Europe. Italy's far-right government seeks to revise EU rules on welcoming and relocating migrants, while the EU recently reached an agreement with Tunisia to deter asylum seekers from departing for Europe. Around 1,100 migrants hosted in Lampedusa will be transferred to other towns in Sicily. (Elena Giordano, “41 migrants die in shipwreck off Italy’s Lampedusa island,” Politico, 09 August 2023)
SPORTS
Croatian Soccer fans in Athens court over deadly violence
On 09 August, around 100 Croatian soccer fans faced criminal charges in an Athens court, including murder and affiliation with a criminal organization, for their alleged involvement in deadly fan violence. Following the fatal stabbing of a Greek fan outside AEK Athens' stadium, charges were issued against 103 suspects, primarily Croatian nationals, for offences like assault and illegal possession of explosive materials. The murder charge is expected to be reconsidered for most defendants. Video footage showed youths wielding weapons and explosives during the incident, leaving 10 injured and one dead. Greek authorities arrested six Croatian nationals attempting to flee the country. The Greek capital hosted a Champions League qualifier amid high security, while UEFA Super Cup preparations continued. (Derek Gatopoulos and Lefteris Pitarakis, “Nearly 100 Croatian soccer fans face murder, gang-related charges in Greece after deadly violence,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
UK and Turkey strengthens anti-illegal migration partnership
On 09 August, according to the Government of the UK, UK and Turkish law enforcement agencies are intensifying collaborative efforts to combat organized immigration crime and disrupt the supply chain of materials used in illegal migration journeys, including boat parts. Following Robert Jenrick, the UK’s Immigration Minister, visit to Turkey last month and other strategic international visits, this partnership aims to tackle illegal migration routes and smugglers. The cooperation involves joint operations, information exchange, and the establishment of a new "Centre of Excellence" by the Turkish National Police, supported by the UK, to counter organized immigration crime. A MOU will facilitate swift data and intelligence sharing, while increased personnel deployment will enhance collaborative efforts to dismantle criminal gangs involved in facilitating illegal crossings. The partnership reflects the UK's commitment to addressing global migration challenges through international cooperation and disruption of criminal networks. (“UK and Türkiye strengthen partnership to help tackle illegal migration,” gov.uk, 09 August 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Ignazio Cassis visits to Australia and New Zealand
On 09 August, according to the Federal Council of Switzerland, Ignazio Cassis, Swiss Federal Councillor, concluded his visit to Australia and New Zealand from 06 to 09 August, focusing on bilateral relations, Pacific geopolitics, and climate change. During the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties celebration with New Zealand, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed to establish diplomatic relations with Niue. Cassis highlighted the strong bonds between the countries and their commitment to multilateralism. In Australia, discussions centred on cooperation, science, Ukraine conflict, consular relations, and climate change, with plans for Australia to host COP31 in 2026. Cassis also engaged with Swiss communities abroad, emphasizing their connection to homeland. His visit marks the first by a Swiss government member to Australia and New Zealand in a decade. Cassis' visit signifies Switzerland's diplomatic efforts in strengthening relationships with Pacific countries, addressing climate concerns, and engaging with its diaspora. (“Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis in Australia and New Zealand: global security and bilateral relations at centre of talks,” admin.ch, 09 August 2023)
Lebanese traffickers arrested for Europe-bound migrant smuggling
On 09 August, Lebanese troops arrested Lebanese and Syrian traffickers planning to send migrants to Europe through the Mediterranean Sea. The military detained 31 Syrians and 15 Lebanese in northern coastal towns, where they had prepared boats for illegal sea crossings. The detainees are under investigation. The country, once a haven for refugees, now witnesses Lebanese, Syrians, and Palestinians seeking better prospects overseas. In September, a boat from Lebanon sank off Syria's coast, claiming 94 lives. The incident led to a crackdown on smuggling networks. Lebanon's deteriorating economic situation has prompted a rise in people attempting dangerous sea journeys to Europe, challenging its role as a host for refugees. (“Lebanon’s army says it has detained dozens of smugglers planning to send migrants to Europe,” Associated Press, 09 August 2023)