NIAS Area Studies
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IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews
The Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs: Key Takeaways
What happened?
On 30 November, Latvia hosted the two-day summit for the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs at Riga. Conducting a summit for the first time at Riga, the Alliance intended to send a larger political message regarding the essentiality of the Baltics to the Alliance. According to the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, the meeting focused on three issues: “Russia’s military build-up in and around Ukraine, the actions by the regime in Belarus, and NATO’s leading role in arms control.”
On 01 December, the Alliance also met with Ukrainian and Georgian officials to discuss the crisis escalation.
Russia and Ukraine
NATO-Russia relations lie on shaky ground since the Kremlin’s decision to cut off ties with the Alliance. During the meeting, the NATO ministers reiterated their intent to stay united in efforts to deter Russia from taking further actions that would lead to escalation of tensions. Moscow was called on to be more “transparent, de-escalate and reduce tensions”. This was followed by a threat from Stoltenberg who warned: “Any future aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price. And have serious political and economic consequences for Russia.” The organization has promised to observe and assess the fragile situation along the borders and promised its readiness to counter any Russian aggression. Ukraine was also commended on its “measured response” to a provocative Russia.
Adding to his comments on Russia, Stoltenberg stated the organization’s commitment to defend itself while simultaneously deterring Russian military aggression. The organization noted the significance and necessity of dialogue during these tense times and regretted the Russian decision to alienate itself from NATO. He hoped that the Kremlin would soon reverse their decision and “re-engage in the NATO-Russia Council for the benefit of peace and security.”
Responding to a question on the delay pertaining to the Ukrainian accession into NATO and Russia’s role in the same, Stoltenberg elaborated: “To become a member of NATO, you have to meet NATO standards, and there has to be a decision by 30 Allies. We need consensus in the Alliance to enlarge and to invite a new country to join our Alliance… So it is up to Ukraine and 30 Allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the Alliance. (Russia) has no veto, no right to interfere in that process.”
The ‘Cynical’ Belarusian Regime
Stoltenberg condemned the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s “cynical and inhumane” attempt at pressurizing Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia via a “hybrid campaign”. He said: “Lukashenko should stop using vulnerable people as pawns in a political game against other countries.” On 25 November, Polish President Andrzej Duda had called on NATO, pointing out the need for the deployment of additional forces on its eastern borders. At the joint press conference with Stoltenberg, Duda said: “Caution and vigilance from NATO, which is responsible for the military security of the allies, is necessary.”
Arms Control
Stated to be a “priority for NATO”, discussions included talks on arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation. The NATO allies affirmed their aim of supporting a “world without nuclear weapons” but expressed their concern over the “worrying” nature of the global nuclear trends. References were made regarding the growing arsenals of Russia and China, the backing out from treaties, and other disruptive technologies that were essentially altering the nature of the conflict. Stoltenberg assured: “NATO Allies are determined to lead a renewed effort to strengthen arms control. Because in a more dangerous world, we need more predictability and more transparency.”
References:
“Press conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Riga,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 30 November 2021.
“Meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Riga: en route to the NATO Summit in Madrid,” Federal Foreign Office, 29 November 2021.
David M. Herszenhorn, “At NATO, Polish president calls for allied response to Russian troop build-up near Ukraine,” POLITICO, 25 November 2021.
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
PORTUGAL
Portugal's Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita resigns
On 04 December, Portugal's Interior Minister Eduardo Cabrita, resigned after his car was involved in a crash that killed a road worker. He had been repeatedly urged to resign, but he refused responsibility, as he was in the backseat while his driver was driving. The government recently was not able to pass a state budget bill and with the snap elections coming up next month, he decided to step down. In his tenure as interior minister, he was accused of scandals, a custodial death by officers, and the mismanagement of the wildfires in central Portugal that killed hundreds of Portuguese. He also faced heat as he had given protective bandanas to the country's firefighters that were flammable. The Portuguese Prime Minister accepted his resignation after thanking him for his service and informed the President. (“Portugal’s interior minister resigns after car crash that killed road worker,” The Guardian, 04 December 2021)
FINLAND
Finland's first case of suspected far-right terrorism
On 04 December, Finland arrested five men suspected to have planned a bombing and a gun attack. The men belonged to the Southwestern municipality of Kankaanpaawere and were under surveillance for two years as some of them had previous convictions. The suspects participated in far-right ideologies of ‘accelerationism’ which, is a white supremacist ideological tendency that foments racial division. This ideology has been at the forefront of US mass shootings. The Police reported that they do not belong to a specific extremist organization but work as small groups. The group was found to possess arms and ammunition with homemade explosives for a possible attack. (“Finland arrests 5 over far-right terror plot,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2021)
UKRAINE-RUSSIA
Possible Russian escalation and Putin’s ‘red lines’
On 04 December, US President Joe Biden warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that it would be "very, very difficult” for Russia to invade Ukraine. This statement appears after the recent escalations and military buildups on the eastern borders of Ukraine. A video call is supposed to happen this week to further ease the tensions, but Biden has been firm on not "accepting anybody's red lines". Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Reznikov is concerned about a possible large-scale escalation by the end of January, this is similar to the US intelligence officials' claim of a possible offensive. While the deputy speaker of the Russian Parliament, Konstantin Kosachev denied any attack or preparation underway for an offensive. Russian Foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov said that President Putin will only be reiterating Russia’s “Red lines” in the negotiations ahead and he would demand a legally binding guarantee that NATO would not expand into Ukraine. (“Russia Ukraine: Biden warns Russia against Ukraine 'red lines,” BBC, 04 December 2021)
COVID-19
Europe reach a mark of 75 million corona virus cases
On 03 December, Europe hit the mark of 75 million coronavirus cases. More than 15 countries in Europe have reported the new variant cases. According to the European Union’s Public Health Agency, “the omicron variant could be responsible for more than half of all COVID-19 infections in Europe within a few months.” Eastern Europe has reported 33 per cent new cases and 53 per cent deaths of total Europe. This sums to 39 per cent of the region's population. In the region, the UK marked the highest number of infections, along with Latvia, the Czech Republic, Germany and Ukraine, where new cases have shot up. Several governments have taken various control measures to contain the spread by imposing restrictions in terms of lockdown in the unvaccinated parts of the country. (Aparupa Mazumder and Rittik Biswas, “Europe surpasses 75 million COVID-19 cases amid spread of Omicron,” Reuters, 03 December 2021
FRANCE
A joint French-Qatar evacuation operation in Afghanistan
A French evacuation mission took place in Afghanistan with the help of the ministry of Qatar. The evacuees consisted of journalists; civilian workers employed by the French army. As per the recent statement, 110 French along with 396 Afghans have been evacuated from Afghanistan till now. This evacuation operation also involved a humanitarian mission on supplying medical equipment, food and winter essentials to international organisations in Afghanistan through a military plane of Qatar. (“France evacuates more than 300 people from Afghanistan,” Reuters, 04 December 2021)
French President meets Saudi crown prince to reach a peace deal
On 04 December, French President Emmanuel Macron held an in-person meeting with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman. This will be the first time a western leader visits the kingdom after the Jamal Khashoggi incident. France and its leader sees Saudi Arabia as a vital actor to strike a peace deal with Iran and to fight against Islamist militants in the MENA region.
Post the meeting, Macron said, “We talked about absolutely everything, without any taboos and we were obviously able to bring up the question of human rights.” From the point of view of Saudi Arabia, which has been facing global criticism after the killing of Khashoggi, the meeting with Macron will assure its arms imports. (John Irish, “In Khashoggi's shadow, Macron holds Saudi talks with crown prince,” Reuters, 05 December 2021)