In Brief
ECONOMY
Pakistan set to bag USD 700million from IMF
On 15 November, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to an agreement at the staff level over the initial review of a short-term loan arrangement that will release around USD 700 million in the coming month. According to a statement, the funds set to be released constitute a second tranche of the nine-month rescue plan and are contingent upon approval by the IMF's executive board. This will raise the total amount disbursed under the USD 3 billion package approved in July to about USD 1.9 billion. In addition to highlighting potential risks resulting from geopolitical tensions, rising commodity prices, and challenging global financial conditions, the IMF urged the authorities to restore the full return to the market-determined exchange rate and encouraged them to keep working to strengthen resilience.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar was informed about the progress of the technical level negotiations with the Pakistani government team under the First Review of the SBA by IMF Mission Chief for Pakistan Nathan Porter. Porter recognized the efforts of the Pakistani government in achieving the quarterly targets for the various programs. He said that these initiatives had produced a successful end to the technical-level discussions. He said that both sides have had lengthy discussions about a number of SBA topics. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Success in IMF review set to unlock $700m,” Dawn, 16 November 2023), (“Quarterly targets: IMF team acknowledges govt efforts in its meeting with Kakar,” Business Recorder, 16 November)
POLITICS
Untold stories of Jaranwala, Dawn
On 16 November, according to an editorial in Dawn titled, “Three months on, the fire is out but Jaranwala continues to burn,” the Christian community people of Jaranwala continued to suffer and were left in a disastrous state. The Punjab administration declared that two prime offenders had been taken into custody the day following the Jaranwala incident. SSP Rizwan told Dawn that 330 persons are being looked into or placed under custody in relation to the matter at this time. While some of these suspects have been granted bail, some are being held by the police, and several are on court remand. The Punjab police stated over two weeks after the incident that they had successfully destroyed the network behind the evil plans and that the blasphemy case in Jaranwala was connected to the espionage agency of an enemy nation. The editorial stated that Some had fled into the fields, while others, were terrified and took sanctuary in the streets of unidentified towns. It further reiterated that the terror and trauma of 16 August still consume a number of Christian families in Jaranwala. There are dreams, careers, homes, and everything else they have lost, and nothing can make up for that. (Muzhira Amin, “Three months on, the fire is out but Jaranwala continues to burn,” Dawn, 16 November 2023)
Government forms commission to implement and investigate Faizabad protest case
On 15 November, the federal government established a three-member commission to enforce the Supreme Court's verdict in the Faizabad protest case and assign responsibility. Retired Inspector General of Police Akhtar Ali Shah will lead the commission, with former IGP Tahir Alam and Interior Ministry's Additional Secretary Khushal Khan as members. The commission is tasked with probing illegal funding sources of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), identifying those who issued supportive statements or fatwas, and assessing if public officeholders were involved in breaking the law during the protest. The commission has two months to submit its report. (“Commission Formed To Probe, Affix Responsibility In Faizabad Case,” The Friday Times, 15 November 2023)
ON AFGHANISTAN
PM defended the policy of repatriating illegal immigrants
On 16 November, Dawn reported on Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar defending the policy of repatriating illegal Afghan immigrants, stating that matters will begin to settle once Kabul has a genuine government. He acknowledged that non-state actors posed a security threat to Pakistan. The main reasons for domestic unrest were identified as the slack implementation of the rule of law, weak governance, proxy warfare, a weak economy, and a low desire for human development. The caretaker Prime Minister made these remarks while addressing the Margalla Dialogue, which was hosted by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) which focused on the theme "Evolving World Environment: Charting the Course for Our Future." (“Issues will start to settle down once ‘legitimate govt’ comes to Kabul: PM,” Dawn, 16 November 2023)
PROVINCE
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Progress made in foreigner documentation
On 16 November, Dawn reported that officials in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have claimed that 19 out of the 36 districts in the province no longer have undocumented foreigners, according to a recent survey. However, they note that 18,665 illegal aliens are still present in the remaining districts. Notably, districts like Hangu, Dir, Tank, and Abbottabad are among those without any undocumented foreigners, while Peshawar has over 500 such individuals. The officials highlight ongoing efforts for voluntary repatriation and stress a state of emergency in specific districts to facilitate the process. (Ghulam Mursalin Marwat & Umer Farooq, “No undocumented migrants in 19 KP districts any more,” Dawn, 16 November 2023)
SECURITY
Pakistan officials emphasizing the capability to sort out banned TTP
On 16 November, The Express Tribune reported that "the country can tackle the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)'s presence over there." This is a response by a Senior Official to a question on the Country's possible ways to tackle the presence of TTP if the Taliban continue to provide a roof. The official, in any case, did not mention the exact plans to tackle the problem, despite emphasizing the capability and said, "Even they (Afghans) know our Capability." His description of capability raises the possibility that Pakistan is considering carrying out cross-border operations. Pakistan indeed carried out limited cross-border strikes against the TTP's shelters in March of last year. Those strikes led to the peace talks between TTP and Pakistan, which were mainly negotiated by the Taliban. Yet, it failed and Pakistan insisted the Taliban should choose either Pakistan or TTP. Most recently, Asif Durrani, Pakistan's special envoy to Afghanistan, argued that the Taliban were in charge of the TTP and the attacks on the Pakistan border. As per the statement from Anwaarul Haq Kakar, Prime Minister, Since the Taliban regained control in August 2021, it turned out to been a 60 per cent rise in terrorist attacks. Suicide attacks have increased by 500 per cent. (“Pakistan weighs options to tackle cross-border TTP threat,” The Express Tribune, 16 November 2023)
Cleansing, intelligence-based operation (IBO) carried out
On 16 November, according to Dawn, Inter Service Public Relations released a report that said a sanitation intelligence-based operation was conducted by the security forces in the Kiri Machan Khel area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Tank district. The ISPR added, that during the operation, a fierce gunfight between the terrorists and the security forces happened, and as a result, seven terrorists were killed. During the operation, the hideout places of those militants came to light. The report further noted, "Weapons and ammunition were also recovered from the killed terrorists. " The locals were appreciating the operation and had given their full support. There has been a surge in terrorist activities following the termination of the ceasefire by the TTP. On 13 November, an exchange of fire conducted between security forces and the terrorists in the Mir area killed one terrorist and two soldiers. Last week reported in Tirah where one Pakistan army officer and three soldiers died. (“7 terrorists killed in an intelligence-based operation in KP’s Tank district: ISPR,” Dawn, 16 November 2023)
Fresh survey results 19 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa districts with no undocumented foreigners
On 16 November, Dawn reported that fresh surveys were conducted to collect the number of undocumented or illegal migrants in the country. As a result of the survey, officials announced that 19 out of 36 districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa totalled zero undocumented foreigners. However, other districts recorded illegal migrants and insisted that 18,665 illegal migrants continue to stay in the rest of the provinces. The survey further revealed the presence of more than 500 illegal aliens in the provincial capital, Peshawar. Following the officials, there has been reported voluntary repatriation of undocumented foreigners from Peshawar and Khyber districts, but there has been no such movement in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. (“No undocumented migrants in 19 KP districts any more,” Dawn, 16 November 2023)
Upswing in terrorist activities, challenges to Pakistan's internal security
On 16 November, Friday Times reported the analysis of the official record of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) police website which describes the increasing surge in terrorist activities and violence against law agencies. These attacks were suicide bombings, ambushes, and targeted assassinations and these attacks reportedly undermined the capability of police forces and took several police officers' lives. The rising upswing from June 2022 to June 2023 recorded 665 militant attacks, of which 15 were suicide attacks. These attacks took almost 200 police officers and 300 other persons' lives. Parallel to these attacks, the KP province has been undergoing economic challenges and the recent wave of attacks, along with the pervasive sense of insecurity felt by the business community. The economic fallout swirls KP's already unstable financial situation. This dire economic situation is mainly highlighted due to the worrying incident involving a gas exploration company in Dera Ismail Khan, which experienced three attacks in a row within a week. However, these recent escalations exposed the inability of the KP police force to tackle the challenges and the vulnerabilities. (“Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police Are At Their Breaking Point,” The Friday Times, 16 November 2023)
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“Dispelling economic concerns: Despite prevailing perceptions, Pakistan's positive economic indicators showcase a growing economic health. Time highlight the nation's progress.”
-Mustansar
“Impressive milestone for Pakistan's economic recovery! Kudos to COAS Gen Asim Munir, SIFC, and Caretaker PM Anwarul Haq Kakar for steering through challenges.”
- Sanie Khan
“2023 has witnessed two disparate #IMF reviews – one unfolding over nearly six months, juxtaposed with the other, concluded in less than six hours shortly after the departure of the #IMF team from #Pakistan.”
- Ausnain Naveed Khan
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Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, ‘Implementing fiscal strategy’
Dawn, 16 November 2023
“The federal government has rectified what successive governments in Pakistan had overlooked for many years: announcing a National Climate Finance Strategy to help mainstream climate change in national policymaking processes. The NCFS has raised the bar of Pakistan’s ambition and committed to reorient the portfolios of key national institutions for climate finance, enable innovative instruments, secure carbon credits and accreditation with global climate funds. Building resilience to climate disasters for reducing economic costs for the economy is one of four objectives of the ongoing $3 billion Stand-by Arrangement with the IMF. The NCFS is expected to create some badly needed fiscal space while building resilience.”
Rafiullah Kakar, ‘Balochistan politics’
Dawn, 16 November 2023
“Balochistan has again captured the spotlight, courtesy of Nawaz Sharif’s strategic foray into the province to court electables from BAP and other parties in a bid to solidify PML-N’s position ahead of the polls. The influx of over two dozen electables into PML-N begs a critical evaluation of Islamabad’s approach towards Balochistan. The national discourse has almost always attributed the plight of Balochistan to its own predatory and corrupt political elite, particularly the tribal sardars. While Balochistan’s people generally agree with this assessment, they stress a crucial exception: these predatory elites owe their sustenance primarily to the patronage emanating from Islamabad. The genesis of the predatory political behaviour of traditional elites in Balochistan can be traced to the tribal governance system of the British. Popularly known as the ‘Sandeman system’, the colonial frontier governance model corrupted tribal social structures and fortified the position of tribal sardars by extending to them patronage in exchange for performing specific administrative functions. Tribal sardars thus became integral to a two-way patron-client relationship, acting as both clients of the colonial state and patrons of their tribal subjects.”
Awais Anwer Khawaja, ‘SIFC and Pakistan’s future’
The News International, 16 November 2023
“Pakistan’s economy has witnessed several challenges in the past few years. The country was on the verge of default up until a few months back. Some quarters blame the PDM’s coalition government for edging Pakistan to default. Others put the responsibility on the PTI government for reneging from its commitment to the IMF. Although the immediate threat of default has been averted, a lot is yet to be done. Political stability, in the interim setup, is better compared to the preceding governments. The role of the SIFC and the military leadership’s active participation therein and its impact on the future of Pakistan require further analysis. Economists Daron Acemoglu and James A Robinson in their book ‘Why Nations Fail’ cite the example of a few countries where the respective economies prospered despite the absence of fully functional democratic institutions. The past and present political systems of China, South Korea – under the leadership of General Park Chung Hee – and Singapore – in Lee Kuan Yew’s era – have witnessed economic advancement despite these countries not meeting the yardstick of Westminster’s democracy.”
Husain Haqqani, ‘Learning from the past’
The News International, 16 November 2023
“Soon after Nawaz Sharif was convicted by an Accountability Court in July 2000, during the regime of General Pervez Musharraf, I wrote in a column that “In a country where successive regimes have pursued mistaken policies and wrongs have been committed on a wide scale, the most logical course of action is to try to bury the past.” The suggestion was aimed at finding a way to move on, not to forget history. Most of the young Pakistanis who have been brought up to hate conventional politicians have no recollection of past repression and injustices. They are angry only over what they perceive to be the mistreatment of their favourite leader. The key to changing Pakistan’s trajectory, however, lies in understanding, acknowledging, and learning from Pakistan’s difficult and tragic history.”
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