Imran Khan expresses readiness to talk to the government; Security forces kill 11 militants in Lakki Marwat
In Brief
ECONOMY
Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24 highlights "modest recovery"
On 11 June, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24 was released which showed that despite challenges such as a lack of finance, quality inputs, and research and development, in 2023-24, there was a 6.3 per cent growth in the agricultural sector compared to 2.3 per cent last year. This was mainly due to a healthy growth in important crops, with the production of wheat, cotton, and rice increasing by 16.8 per cent enabling the agricultural sector’s share in GDP to go from 23.2 per cent in FY23 to 24 per cent in FY24. As per the research firm Arif Habib Ltd, this growth of 6.3 per cent was the highest in 19 years. Wheat output grew by 11.6 per cent to reach 31.4 million tonnes, cotton grew by 108.2 per cent to reach 10.2 million bales, and rice increased by 34.8 per cent to reach 9.9 million tonnes. There was also an 8.4 per cent growth in fruits, 5.8 per cent growth in vegetables, and 1.5 per cent growth in pulses. However, sugarcane declined by 0.4 per cent to reach 87.6 million tonnes and maize production declined by 10.4 per cent to reach 9.8 million tonnes. With regard to fertilizers, there was a 17.3 per cent increase in the overall domestic production, an 18.1 per cent increase in the availability, and an 18.7 per cent increase in the total offtake of fertilizer nutrients. Livestock grew by 3.9 per cent, forestry by 3.05 per cent, and fishing by 0.81 per cent.
The survey also highlighted that as many as 4.5 million individuals remained unemployed in Pakistan, with the highest unemployment rate of 11.1 per cent being observed with the youth aged between 15 to 24. The age group of 25 to 34 are the second highest with 7.3 per cent. It highlighted the attitude of officials towards unemployment by pointing out that after the 2020-21 Labour Force Survey, no employment survey has been conducted. Based on this, the total labour force stands at 71.8 million, comprising 48.5 million in rural areas and 23.3 million in urban areas. The unemployment ratio remained higher amongst females, with 14.4 per cent of women unemployed compared to ten per cent of men. The survey revealed changes in the employment structure over decades due to technological transformation like the share of the agricultural sector being diverted to the industrial and services sector. It pointed out that a country’s ability to establish employment depends on resources, technological base and advancement, and institutional strategies. For this purpose, the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) are redesigning the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) landscape, fostering skill development, and addressing systemic TVET challenges in Pakistan. The youth initiative is a PKR 4.9 billion programme for skill training in 39 IT, 53 industrial, and 34 hardcore skills. The programme further targets the domestic and international job market and overseas job opportunities. (Bakhtawar Mian, “Youth hit hardest as 4.5m remain jobless,” Dawn, 12 June 2024; Amjad Mahmood, “ECONOMIC SURVEY 2023-24: Agriculture’s ‘best performance’ in two decades helps drive economic growth,” Dawn, 12 June 2024)
Finance minister gives overview of economic performance and upcoming budget
On 11 June, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb indicated that “no sacred cow” would be allowed to escape without paying due taxes through the upcoming federal budget 2024-25 due on 12 June. In a news conference, he expressed hope that FY25 would begin on a stronger note backed by the IMF, promised to get the government out of the wheat business, and pledged to talk to China for overall debt restructuring. During the launch of the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2023-24, he placed less focus on the performance of each economic sector and sub-sector, unlike his predecessors, and instead spoke on the revival of the parliamentarians’ development schemes and federal financing of more than 235 provincial nature projects. When asked why these schemes were included in the National Economic Council’s (NEC) public sector development programme, he stated that elected governments both in the Centre and provinces “have in their right to reverse the decisions of the caretaker government.” Aurangzeb explained that the upcoming budget would focus on reforming the revenue system, energy sector, and SOEs. While acknowledging public suspicion of the government’s ability in this regard, he stated that they “are left with no other option now.”
He linked the “almost unprecedented” revenue growth of 30 per cent to the provinces being able to deliver cash surpluses and observing fiscal discipline. The current account deficit was reduced to USD 200 million, which helped stabilize the currency and foreign exchange reserves which can now finance more than two months of imports. There was also a decline in inflation to 11.8 per cent, allowing the central bank to reduce the policy rate by 150 basis points. Aurangzeb credited the completion of the IMF’s standby arrangement for restoring Pakistan’s image and credibility, adding that talks with the IMF have been “so far so good.” (Khaleeq Kiani, “ECONOMIC SURVEY 2023-24: No sacred cows when it comes to tax,” Dawn, 12 June 2024)
Growing dispute between PML-N and PPPP over agricultural tax
On 11 June, the Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remained unable to reconcile their differences over the proposed 18 per cent standard sales tax on agriculture inputs and machinery. The mentioned tax was recommended by the IMF to end the tax exemptions in Pakistan. The PPPP expressed displeasure towards the PML-N for sidelining the major coalition and said it would not tolerate new taxes on the agriculture sector. Additionally, the PPPP leadership also expressed its discontent over load-shedding, importing wheat at the wrong time and the inquiry results and no relief to the agricultural sector in the upcoming budget. PPPP leader Shazia Marri questioned: “Does the government want that PPPP should start protesting; does the government want us to express our anger about the way we have been treated on the floor of the house.” She also lamented that the party had “thought that Shehbaz Sharif was aware” of its concerns “and that he would not only realise it but approach” them. She asked whether the government wanted the PPPP to “start protesting” and express its “anger” about the way it has been “treated on the floor of the house.” Marri then warned that while the PML-N had been given “a lot of space,” if it continued to treat the PPPP “this way” then her party would have to ensure the implementation of its manifesto. (Rizwan Shehzad, “PPP, PML-N in dispute over agriculture tax,” The Express Tribune, 12 June 2024)
POLITICS
Opposition claims of irregularities in Senate over standing committee distribution
On 11 June, the government and the opposition sparred over the distribution of standing committees, as the opposition threatened to boycott the committees while the government maintained that the committees would be able to function without the opposition. After PPP Senators Saleem Mandviwala and Quratulain Marri were elected as the chairpersons of the standing committees on finance and revenue, and planning and development respectively, the PTI parliamentary leader objected to the deviation from the parliamentary tradition of the opposition getting the committees relating to government’s accountability. He stated that the government claimed the committees sought by the opposition, and claimed that a computer made the decision instead of parliamentary leaders. The leader remarked: “We do not recognize these committees. Go ahead, if you can run the house without the committees.” Barrister Ali Zafar called on the Senate Chairman to bring the Leader of the House in the Senate and the parliamentary leaders to a negotiating table, warning that failure to do so would lead to a “crisis” and “compel” the opposition to “boycott the committees.” The Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, Syed Shibli Faraz, objected to the way in which the committees had been formed. However, PPP’s parliamentary leader in the house, Senator Sherry Rehman, rejected the impression of irregularities created by the opposition. (Iftikhar A Khan, “Govt, opposition spar in Senate over committees,” Dawn¸ 12 June 2024)
Imran Khan expresses readiness to talk to the government
On 11 June, PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar announced that Imran Khan had agreed to hold talks with the government after talking to Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) chief Mahmood Khan Achakzai. Gohar’s statements came after Khan’s decision to “step back” from his rigid stance, and he detailed: “We told the PTI founder that dialogue is necessary, as the distance is widening. He agreed with us [on this].” Gohar underscored Khan’s readiness to “forgive what happened.” With regard to the negotiations being done at the behest of the Supreme Court’s advice, he noted that while the “option given by the SC is also under consideration,” it is ultimately the PTI’s “own decision” to negotiate. These negotiations, which “can also be held at the alliance level,” will be done after talks with Achakzai. Gohar added: “We have never refused to negotiate. The ice is breaking. We want things to improve.” (Shabbir Dar, “Imran Khan consents to holding talks with rivals: PTI chief,” The News International, 11 June 2024)
JUI-F chief emphasizes party’s belief in “positive democratic struggle”
On 12 June, The Express Tribune reported that Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam’s (JUI-F) Chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, decided to continue opposing the government which formed after the “rigged elections,” adding that if their struggle is construed as a war, so let it be. During a press meeting, he also denied reports of his contacts with Imran Khan and referred it as a pack of lies. Rehman detailed that his party, which believes in a “positive democratic struggle,” would establish a political strategy and remain “ready to face the repercussions.” He asserted that the JUI-F would continue to “resist” all “global powers” aiming to control Pakistan economically and politically. Further, Rehman criticized intelligence agencies and reiterated his party’s rejection of the 2018 and 2024 election results. He expressed his concern by stating: “It pains me to say that the government’s writ has ended in K-P and Balochistan. The resources of tribal area are being captured. We don’t want to see weak military and national defence, but they want to see us and the parliament toothless.” (Jehanzeb Abbasi, “Fazl says if struggle construed as a war, let it be,” The Express Tribune, 12 June 2024)
SECURITY
Security forces kill 11 militants in Lakki Marwat
On 11 June, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) in its statement reported that during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), at least 11 terrorists were killed and multiple hideouts were found. The operation was taken in response to a recent improvised explosive device (IED) explosion where seven soldiers were killed. The ISPR added that a sanitization operation was being carried out to eliminate any other terrorists in the area. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised the security forces for the effective action against terrorists and stated: “The entire nation is standing with the security forces in war against terrorism.” (“11 terrorists killed in Lakki Marwat IBO,” The Express Tribune, 12 June 2024)
CPEC
Dasu Hydropower Project receives USD one billion in additional funding from World Bank
On 11 June, the World Bank said in a press release that it has approved USD one billion “in a second round of additional financing for the Dasu Hydropower Stage I (DHP I)” in Upper Kohistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The new support aims to “support the expansion of hydropower electricity supply, improve access to socio-economic services for local communities, and build the Water and Power Development Authority’s (Wapda) capacity to prepare future hydropower projects.” World Bank Country Director for Pakistan, Najy Benhassine, pointed out that Pakistan’s energy sector “suffers from multiple challenges to achieving affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy.” He described DHP as “one of the best hydropower sites in the world and a game changer for the Pakistan energy sector” which has the potential to “contribute to ‘greening’ the energy sector and lowering the cost of electricity.” The task team leader for the project, Rikard Liden, stated that the project is essential in the country’s “efforts to reverse its dependence on fossil fuels and reach 60 per cent renewable energy by 2031.” He added that this financing has the potential to help Pakistan save USD 1.8 billion annually “by replacing imported fuels, and offset around 5 million tons of carbon dioxide.” (“World Bank approves $1bn additional financing for Dasu Hydropower Project,” Dawn, 11 June 2024)
INDIA VIEW
India wishes to solve cross-border terrorism problem with Pakistan, says foreign minister
On 11 June, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized that India wants to “find a solution to the issue of years-old cross-border terrorism” with Pakistan. This comes after India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third term on 9 June. Jaishankar said that relations and problems with China and Pakistan were different, and referring to Pakistan, said that cross-border terrorism “cannot be the policy of a good neighbour.” (“India wants to solve ‘issue of cross-border terrorism’ with Pakistan: FM Jaishankar,” Dawn, 11 June 2024)
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Who is it that is heating up the market of organized state oppression and fascism in the country while openly trampling the responsibilities imposed on us under our constitution and international agreements? The ongoing crackdown on the media and the silencing of journalists through intimidation, threats, fear, and other fascist tactics are an open attack on our democracy and freedom of expression.
- Imran Khan
Imran Riaz Khan, dressed in Ihram, was arrested by unknown persons in violation of court orders
- Tehreek-e-Insaf
I really congratulate Excise & Narcotics and Sindh Police for this joint action. This culprit was wanted since many years and he was the biggest supplier of synthetic drugs “Ice and Crystal” in educational institutes in Hyderabad.
- Sharjeel Inam Memon
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Rafia Zakaria, ‘Working children’
Dawn, 12 June 2024
“Pakistan has several pieces of legislation that deal with child labour and yet millions of children are exploited and put to work in full view of the rest of us. Today, as they do every year on this day, countries are marking the World Day Against Child Labour. It is estimated that Pakistan has over 12 million children who are victims of child labour. According to data compiled in 2021, the vast majority of these children are working in the agricultural sector, helping with planting and harvesting wheat and cotton. They also work in the deep-sea fishing and poultry sectors. In the industrial sector, they make glass bangles, amongst other occupations. Other hazardous occupations, sometimes claiming their health and life, are coal and gemstone mining.”
Niaz A Shah, ‘Independence of judiciary under Islamic law’
The Express Tribune, 11 June 2024
“An independent and impartial judiciary is an absolute principle of Islamic law. No derogation from it is permitted under any circumstances. One of the foremost duties of a judge is to be impartial. The Quranic principle (4:135) of impartiality is applicable to everyone and in all fields of life: “O you who believe! Stand out firmly for justice, as witness to Allah, even as against yourself, or your parents, or your relatives, and whether it be (against) rich or poor: for Allah can best protect both. Follow not the lusts (of your hearts), lest you swerve, and if you distort (justice), or decline to do justice, verily Allah is well-acquainted with all that you do.” The Holy Quran (5:8) also says that “let not the hatred of others to you make you swerve to wrong and depart from justice.” The thrust of these verses is that personal interests or bias of judges must not stand in the way of delivering justice.”
Hafiz Ahsaan Ahmad Khokhar, ‘How to fix the power sector’
The News International, 12 June 2024
“These contracts stipulate that you must purchase a minimum and fixed quantity of power from the IPPs. The tariff structure indicates that fuel charges, under the ‘take or pay’ contracts that Pakistan has embraced, account for one-third of the total expenses of a typical thermal IPP, while fixed charges make up two thirds of the total costs of these IPPs. The main drawback of these charges is that most of them were awarded without first seeking competitive bids and due diligence. Because of the IPP agreements, energy users already receive the worst form of invoices in the world, taxes and capacity fees accounting for 70 per cent of their bills. In the past 15 years, the country has lost approximately Rs5,082 billion due to the governments’ inability to control the circular debt, amounting to an annual loss of Rs370 billion. Since July 2018, the power purchase price has climbed by 95.82 per cent. The spanning period of these IPPS will end around 2050.”
Editorial, ‘Unyielding onslaught’
Dawn, 12 June 2024
“Several pivotal developments have led to the resurgence of terrorist activities in Pakistan, notably the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021. The collapse of the ill-advised ceasefire with the banned TTP has only exacerbated the situation. Meanwhile, Kabul’s reluctance to rein in the group and ensure Afghan soil is not used for launching attacks against Pakistan has made an already messy situation even messier. Despite repeated diplomatic engagements and cross-border actions, the Taliban have shown little inclination to curb the activities of their ideological brethren. And so, an emboldened TTP has been able to regroup and mount sophisticated attacks against targets inside Pakistan. The presence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan, reportedly supported by modern weapons and financial aid from the Taliban, poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s national security.”
Editorial, ‘Elusive targets’
The Express Tribune, 12 June 2024
“All in all, the pre-budget report tells a story of elusive targets and disappointing key indicators. The FBR tax collection, for instance, did grow by 30.6% to Rs7,361.9 billion (in the July-April period), but is destined to fall way short of the targeted Rs9,415 billion for the full fiscal year. The investment-to-GDP ratio, at 13.14%, slipped to a 50-year low. With a measly 1.25% growth in industrial and services sectors, the neglected agriculture sector — which rather grew by 6.25% as compared to the targeted 3.5% — came up as the sole saving grace, arresting what could have been an awful fall in the growth rate. Adding to the woes, the circular debt crisis in the energy sector persisted and there was no answer either to the loss-making State-owned enterprises — something that has culminated in the realisation that there are no strategic assets and privatisation of the bleeding entities is a must.”
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“Gender-centric planning is crucial going forward.”
-An opinion in Dawn, ‘Thinking pink’
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