NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Alex Brandon/AP Photo/picture alliance
By Shilpa Joseph, Govind Anoop and Ken B Varghese
Joe Biden and Zelenskyy sign 10-point security agreement: Key articles
On 13 June, The White House published the document of the Bilateral Security Agreement Between the United States of America and Ukraine which highlights the tenets and principles of the security agreement. The US looks at extending the existing security partnerships like the Strategic Defense Framework between the United States Department of Defense and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, and the US-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership, signed in 2021. The deal acknowledged Ukraine’s efforts in reaching a just end to the war and achieving a lasting sustainable peace, based on Article 51 of the UN charter which guarantees an inherent right for self-defence for Ukraine to secure its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The agreement mentions Ukraine’s future in NATO and calls for deepening integration into the Euro-Atlantic community. It recalls the Declaration of the Allies at the Vilnius Summit 2023, in which allies pledged to incite Ukraine into NATO once, all the allies agree and conditions are fulfilled. The agreement condemns Russia’s actions and holds it accountable for the aggression and also seeks compensation for the damages incurred during the war. The US boldly stated that it would take all actions to deter Russia’s aggression by imposing sanctions and export control, consistent with domestic and international law.
I
Article one deals with the principles of cooperation that underline the two parties, which are the UN charter’s right for respect and sovereignty, their shared commitment to democracy and strengthening Euro-Atlantic integration, security and interoperability.
II
Article two talks about the defence and security cooperation for the shared commitment to stability and peace in Europe. It states that an aggression or threat to aggression against one party will be seen as of grave concern to the other. It is also written that any future armed attack of Ukraine would require the parties to immediately meet within 24 hours to decide and develop additional defence and deterrent responses, in terms of economic, military or political sanctions. The two parties agree to share necessary defence information and intelligence to conduct a response. The US aims to develop a Ukrainian future force by implementing the existing security arrangements, meeting regularly to share training and military education programs and cooperation to promote cybersecurity and protection of critical infrastructure.
III
Article three covers matters of Economic Recovery and Reform of Ukraine, including identifying opportunities and capacity for building Ukraine’s economy, especially after the negative impacts of the war. It also aims to develop a decentralised energy system integrated with Europe and to improve its civilian nuclear energy sector. The agreement plans to extend the Collaboration on Ukrainian Energy System Resilience. The deal also brings more strategic investment opportunities in both public and private sectors to forge a deeper US-Ukraine partnership.
IV
Article four deals with Ukraine’s democratic, economic, defence and security institutions looking towards reforms to advance its Euro-Atlantic integration and align with NATO’s values and in line with its EU accession goals. It calls for a strong Ukrainian judiciary, with independence and integrity, implementing anti-corruption measures, reforms in law enforcement, tax and customs, and improving transparency and efficiency in defence planning and resource management at par with NATO standards. It also focussed on corporate governance and efforts to encourage foreign investor confidence. Article five talks about steps to achieve peace that is just under international law, including the UN Charter.
The other articles of the agreement involve disputes and implementation mechanisms which state that disputes will be solved only by consultation and that they shall not be referred to any court or tribunal or any third party for settlement. The agreement also states it that will remain in force for 10 years with a provision of extension by mutual written agreement of the Parties. The terms for termination of the agreement are also detailed and shall take effect six months after the date of the notification. The agreement reaffirms the future membership of Ukraine in the NATO alliance.
Reference
“Bilateral Security Agreement Between the United States of America and Ukraine," The White House, 13 June 2024
FRANCE
Witness inflation from hikes in food and energy prices
On 14 June, according to the Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), inflation of 2.3 per cent in May was recorded in France. This was slightly higher than April, 2.2 per cent, which was the lowest in the past two years. This is due to food inflation and increase in energy cost to 5.7 per cent in May, increasing the prices of petroleum products. However, we could see the inflation for the service sectors fall by 2.8 per cent in May compared to April. However, other than inflation, France also saw a higher interest rate on borrowing in 2024. According to Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at JP Morgan said: “The surprise decision to call for snap elections adds to uncertainty, particularly as France could face an EU procedure for excessive deficits later on this month.” (Indrabati Lahiri, “French inflation up in May driven by higher energy and food prices,” Euro news, 15 June 2024)
Pope addresses the consequence of AI in the G7
On 14 June, for the first time, the Pope addressed the leaders at the G7 Summit in southern Italy, while addressing them the Pope challenged them to keep human dignity to the highest proprietary and use intelligence. Pope Francis also brought his moral authority to bear on the group of seven. He also offered an ethical take on government policy and corporate boards. In terms of weapons, G7 leaders recognised the impact of AI in the military domain and the need for proper structure for responsible development and use. They also promote the state to make sure "Military use of AI is responsible, complies with applicable international law, particularly international humanitarian law, and enhances international security. (“Pope Francis attends G7 summit in historic first, warns of dangers of AI,” Euronews, 15 June 2024)
GREECE
UNESCO sites in Athens closed due to heat waves
On 13 June, the Acropolis of Athens, a UNESCO recognised historical site was closed down for the second day by the Greek authorities due to unusually high temperatures. Temperatures of more than 40 Celsius were forecast in central and southern Greece, and the Culture Ministry closed the Parthenon, and other Greek archaeological sites in Crete, the Dodecanese, the Cyclades and the Peloponnese as a precautionary measure. The minister for civil protection, Vassilis Kikilias, said the heat wave, combined with the dry winter posed a particular wildfire risk. Authorities in Athens provided air-conditioning facilities and issued fans to secondary schools where entrance exams were being held. “Greece: Heat forces Acropolis closure for 2nd straight day,” Deutsche Welle, 13 June 2024
ROMANIA
IKEA's furniture is costing the Romanian forests
On 09 June 2024, Greenpeace claimed that Ikea’s suppliers are benefitting from Romania’s environment. Recent two investigations revealed the impact of the flatpack furniture giant on the Romania’s Carpathian Mountains, which is Europe’s largest remaining area of primary and oldest growth forests. According to a Greenpeace report, more than 50 per cent of Romania's old forest has been destroyed in the past 20 years, due to corruption and poor law enforcement. IKEA and the Ingka Group were found to have exploited the areas which were marked as protected areas. As per the investigation, protected areas of the forest underwent intensive commercial logging causing soil degradation and ecosystems. According to the research on the type of forest management, in every Ingka investment property in Romana, only a per cent of the total area was strictly prohibited, while eight per cent was only partially protected. Whereas the rest was used for industrial wood production. In another investigation by Greenpeace in the oldest forest of Romania to examine IKEA’s supply chain, it claimed that at least seven suppliers for IKEA’s leading wood products were linked to the “systematic destruction” of old growth forests, including two Natura 2000 protected sites. The franchisor for IKEA’s supply strongly disagreed with both claims according to the report. In response, Ingka Group: “Authorities found no evidence of non-compliance with forestry regulations.” and stated that its practices were “…aligned with rigorous environmental standards set by national laws and international certification bodies like the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).” According to the report by Earthsight, IKEA's fast furniture business surged in 2019. IKEA consumed one tree every second, according to the reports by Earthsight (an NGO) and owns around 2800 square kilometres of forest worldwide and 500 square kilometres in Romania. (Charlie Jaay, “IKEA in the spotlight: Flatpack furniture linked to ‘systematic destruction’ of Romanian forests” Euronews, 14 June 2024)
THE UK
Labour Party leads polls, Tories down by four points
On 14 June, Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde reported that both the Conservative and Labour parties have reduced support as per the seven polls conducted over the previous week. The Labour still has a 41 per cent average support from their 44 per cent, while the Conservatives are down at 20 per cent from their 24 per cent. The party that gained support was Reform UK, which went up by five points to 16 per cent in comparison to the 11 per cent they had when the elections were called. BBCs analysis reported that Tories have lost support due to the Reform UK’s decision to stand in almost every constituency, which contrasts their predecessor, the Brexit Party’s 2019 campaign of avoiding seats that were held by the Tories and Nigel Farage’s decision to contest the elections, the announcement of which resulted in a rise of three points. The BBC also speculated that the rise of the Liberal Democrats to 12 per cent might account for the reduction in the Labour Party’s support. This has now made the two spearheads of the UK general elections take notice of the potential challenge from the smaller parties. (“Polling expert Sir John Curtice on Reform and Lib Dem gains,” BBC, 14 June 2024)
Labour Party on the grasp of victory, Tories pessimistic
On 14 June, the BBC reported on the contrasting moods seen in the Labour and the Conservative party camps as the halfway stage to the polling day has passed. Most of the former believe that victory is in their grasp whereas the latter believe that the gap between the two parties is too much. Part of the Tories have described their campaign to be “utterly dire” and criticised the lack of a clear message or strategy from their leader, Rishi Sunak. A “prevailing pessimism” is also causing a lack of campaigning and motivation to work for the seats according to some of his conservative peers. However, others believe that the gap between the Labour and Tories is not as serious as the polls indicate and that the undecideds will swing the polls on Election Day. The pointing out of the consequences of a Labour majority by Grant Sharps, Defence Secretary of the UK has been criticised as a move from a campaign that has run out of ideas. Furthermore, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has shown to be ahead of the Conservatives by one point in a poll conducted by YouGov, ablow to the Tories. On the other hand, the Labour Party prepares to take power, with Sir Keir Starmer attributing their lead to the stability in their promised programmes and the cultural change brought forth. However, Sir Keir faced criticism for his inability to respond to Sunak’s tax attack in the debate last week. Furthermore, the far left will be left unhappy with the lack of radical policies in the manifesto he revealed in Manchester. The party has also given major focus to “ground war,” by spending resources on door-to-door knocking and leaflet distribution. The party has also spent resources on the “air war,” ensuring their best image is spread across the media. Sir Keir’s planned visits to constituencies widely considered to be Tory strongholds show confidence in the Labour campaign and in their ability to expand on their seats. The start of the Euros and the attention and passion it will command from the people will disrupt television hours and distract people from the election campaigns. There is also confusion and anticipation about who will take which position in the newly forming Government. (“As campaign passes halfway, the mood in Tory and Labour camps could not be more different,” BBC, 14 June 2024)
Major food recall due to E. Coli outbreak
On 14 June, the BBC reported on a major recall by food manufacturers on at least 60 types of pre-packed sandwiches due to possible contamination with E. Coli. While E. Coli bacteria has not been detected on the products, it is still being recalled as a precaution. Major retailers that have been affected include Aldi, Asda, Co-op and Morrisons. Currently, 211 people in the UK are known to have been affected by E. Coli which is 113 more than last week. 67 of these have been admitted to the hospital, according to the UK Health Security Agency. Experts believe that the outbreak was linked to ready-made food that is widely available but they have not been able to pin down specific items. Major manufacturers that were affected include Greencore Group who recalled 45 different products and Samsworth Brothers Manton Wood who recalled 15. A third manufacturer is expected to recall products on Saturday too. E. Coli is a broad category of bacteria that are typically found in the intestines of humans and other animals. According to tests, this outbreak's type is E. coli STEC O145. It generates a toxin called Shiga that can damage the lining of the stomach. Frequent symptoms may include vomiting, cramping in the stomach and fever. It typically takes a few days after infection for symptoms to manifest. Most people heal quickly, but some—like small children or those with underlying medical issues—may get quite sick. Experts have advised the usual methods of reducing the risk of infection by “Washing hands with warm water and soap, washing fruits and vegetables and cooking food to the temperatures suggested.” (“Supermarket sandwiches linked to E. coli outbreak,” BBC, 14 June 2024)
Labour Party raises GBP 350,000 more than the Tories in the first week
On 14 June, the Electoral Commission reported that the Labour Party raised over GBP 350,000 more than the Conservatives in the first week of the general election campaign. The Labour Party totalled their donations to GBP 926,908, the Tories saw a total of GBP 574,918, and the Liberal Party saw a total of GBP 454,999. The Reform UK raised GBP 140,000 and the Scottish National Party raised GBP 127,998. This contrasts with the donations raised by the parties in 2019 which include GBP 5.7 million raised by the conservatives in the first week compared to the Labour party’s GBP 218,000. The biggest Labour donor was Toledo Productions with GBP 500,000 and the largest Tory Donor was GBP 88,000. from 30 May to 05 June, the general election campaign, GBP 3.274 million was donated to political parties, according to official numbers released by the Electoral Commission. Reform UK received the highest donation amount of any smaller party, totalling GBP 140,000. The largest contributions made to the campaign in its first week of operation were from Fitriani Hay, the wife of former BP CEO James Hay, and H R Smith Group, each contributing GBP 50,000. This report is the first of six on party donations, according to Louise Edwards of the Electoral Commission, who called it: "an important part of delivering transparency for voters." (“Labour raises £350k more than Tories in first week,” BBC, 14 June 2024)
REGIONAL
Euros 2024: A second Sommermärchen
On 14 June, the BBC reported on the general apathy and lack of enthusiasm seen in Germany ahead of the latter hosting Euros 2024. This has been attributed to a combination of the country’s men's team’s lack of success over the previous decade since their World Cup victory in 2014, the political clashes among the coalitions which have caused rifts in the political state of Germany and the slowing down of economic growth. The situation is reminiscent of the last time Germany played host to the World Cup, in 2006. The period is described as “Sommermärchen,” a summer fairy-tale. Due to the country’s history and role in the events of the 20th century, their natives had felt uncomfortable with displaying national colours. However, the national team’s semi-final run had managed to inspire the nation to let go of its reservations which in turn displayed itself to the world as a united and confident nation. The first concern of the national organizers is the safety and security of every fan. Due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East, Euro 2024 will take place during a period of heightened worldwide tension. Additionally, threats from the Islamic State have been documented. Attacks with political motivation have increased recently in Germany. However, authorities trust in the power of football to result in another “Sommermärchen.” (“Will Euro 2024 give Germany another summer fairytale?,” BBC, 14 June 2024)
Meloni and Macron exchange spurs at G7 Summit
On 14 June, Giorgia Meloni, Italy's Prime Minister, accused Emmanuel Macron, President of France of using the G7 forum as a form of campaign in response to Macron’s criticism of Italy’s alleged actions of “watering down language” on abortion rights. This was regarding Meloni’s request to remove the term “safe and legal abortion” in the final statement by the G7. The Italian Prime Minster denied any accusations of Italy’s reluctance to defend abortion rights. She also denied reports that Italy did the same concerning LGBTQ+ rights from the conclusion of the summit. Macron stated that the clash of women’s rights is taking place at a time when French voters are reflecting on how to vote in the snap elections called by the former upon the Far-Right’s victory with 31.4 per cent in the European Parliament elections which is double the margin of 14.6 per cent earned by Macron’s party. Clashes between Macron and Meloni have been frequent, ranging from issues on migration to Italy’s exclusion from initiatives for Ukraine. Meloni’s positions on fundamental rights have always been closely looked at by French officials, although Meloni has never publicly questioned Italy’s laws on abortion. (“Macron, Meloni clash over abortion rights at G7,” Politico, 14 June 2024)
INTERNATIONAL
China threatens EU against tariffs on EV
On 12 June, according to Deutsche Welle, the European Commission planned to impose provisional duties of up to 38.1 per cent on imports of Chinese electric vehicles. In response, the Chinese Commerce Ministry threatened to sue the European Union at the World Trade Organization (WTO) due to the high import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Earlier, the EU investigated the illegal support from subsidies in China. The EU mandates that the tariffs will come into effect on a provisional basis from 04 July and if China does not act upon it, it will continue permanently from November. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said: "We urge the EU… to correct its wrong practices, stop politicising economic and trade issues, and properly handle economic and trade frictions through dialogue and consultation,” The German Economy Minister Robert Habeck also added: "Tariffs as a political tool are always only the last resort and often the worst path." (“China threatens WTO action over EU electric car tariffs”, Deutsche Welle, 13 June 2024)
Germany against EU sanctions on Chinese EV
On 14 June, Euronews reported on Germany’s stalling of the EU process on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. On 04 July, EU manufacturers were found to have received huge subsidies from the Chinese government which allowed them to sell in the EU market for lower prices. Such tariff was expected to hit Chinese car companies such as BYD, and SAIC motors as they were more affordable in the European market compared to the western producers. China has already hinted that enforcing such tariffs to affect major brands such as BMW, and Porsche. While Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor highlighted such tariffs causing problems in job creation in Germany. Scholz said: “Isolation and illegal customs barriers- that ultimately just makes everything more expensive, and everyone poorer. We do not close our markets to foreign companies, because we do not want that for our companies either.” While addressing all these issues, the best course of action is to promote EV adoption and slowly stop internal combustion engines by 2035. (Indrabti Lahiri, “Why is Germany opposed to EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles?” Euronews, 14 June 2024)