On Operation Azm-i-Istehkam, military leadership responds to the critics; Domestic debt rises to PKR 67.8 trillion
In Focus
KP worst hit by militant violence: Three think tank reports
On 5 July, the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), a research and advocacy think-tank in Islamabad, said in a press release that as per its monthly security review for Pakistan in June 2024, there was an expansion in the “geographical spread of terrorist violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), with attacks in June spread across nine districts. Though militant groups in the province mainly targeted security forces personnel, recent attacks saw “frequent attacks” on educational institutions, polio workers, tribal elders, and political leaders. According to the report, in the month of June, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other local Taliban groups were responsible for 21 terrorist attacks in KP, compared to 19 in May 2024. The attacks killed four people and injured 14. On a national level, PIPS recorded 27 terrorist attacks, down from 36 in May, of which 21 were in KP and six in Balochistan. Security and counterterrorism departments conducted five anti-militant operations across Pakistan, killing 17 militants and injuring three. Four of these operations took place in KP’s Bannu and Lakki Marwat districts, while one happened in Sindh’s Karachi. Earlier in May, ten operations had been carried out.
PICSS report on security in Pakistan in June 2024
On 2 July, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) in a report for the month of June said that Pakistan saw 69 attacks by militants in June 2024. This caused 60 deaths and 65 injuries. In comparison to May, there was a 20 per cent decline in attacks, a 33 per cent decrease in subsequent deaths, and a 25 per cent decrease in injuries. The PICSS report highlighted KP as the most affected province in June 2024, same as the PIPS report, noting 27 attacks by militants which killed 21 and injured 18. The PICSS report stated that in KP’s tribal districts, 28 militant attacks resulted in 30 deaths and 28 injuries. Balochistan was the second-worst hit, as pointed out by both PICSS and PIPS, as it witnessed 11 attacks causing six deaths and 14 injuries. In June alone, Balochistan recorded a 52 per cent fall in militant attacks, an 80 per cent decline in deaths, and a 69 per cent decline in injuries.
CRSS report on terrorism in Pakistan in Q2 2024
On 1 July, the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) highlighted in a report that in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024, there were 380 violence-linked fatalities and 220 injuries from 240 terror attacks and counter-terror operations. The CRSS report, similar to PIPS, highlighted KP along with Balochistan, as being “epicentres of violence” given that they accounted for 92 per cent fatalities and 87 per cent attacks. KP was worse hit, as it suffered 67 per cent of fatalities while Balochistan suffered 25 per cent. Though Balochistan had the “most notable improvement” with violence decreasing by 41 per cent compared to Q1, KP and Punjab “experienced a surge in violence.” However, the PICSS report noted an improvement in Punjab’s security situation in the month of June alone. Both the CRSS and the PIPS reports pointed out that government officials and security personnel were targeted more.
(“Militants Expanding Their Targets And Areas Of Operation In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” Pak Institute for Peace Studies, 5 July 2024; Ikram Junaidi, “Militant attacks down 20pc in June: PICSS data,” Dawn, 2 July 2024; “Terrorism Continues to Batter Pakistan,” Centre for Research and Security Studies, 1 July 2024)
In Focus
On Operation Azm-i-Istehkamm military leadership responds to the critics
On 5 July, Pakistan’s top military officials condemned critics of the new Operation Azm-i-Istehkam, saying that they were peddling self-serving agendas and malicious propaganda with the aim of undermining counterterrorism efforts. During the 265th corps commanders’ conference chaired by the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) asserted: “Forum noted with concern the unwarranted criticism by some quarters and deliberate misrepresentation of the vision, only for furthering their vested interests.” Commanders at the meeting reviewed details of the operation, which is directed at fighting resurgent terrorism by using all elements of Pakistan’s security apparatus. Munir said at the conference that the army has “always been fully prepared to thwart all internal and external challenges and play its due role in the stability and prosperity of Pakistan, regardless of the challenges posed.”
However, following the announcement of the operation, opposition parties criticized the government for its failure to consult them and lack of transparency, calling for answers to the true objectives of the operation. Many subsequently called for a parliamentary debate in order to decide the operation’s fate through a political consensus. The government requires the PTI’s support for this operation, since it would primarily focus on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the province which has been described as the epicentre of violence in Pakistan where the provincial government is led by the PTI. While talking to reporters, Imran Khan said the PTI would participate in an All-Parties Conference (APC) in which the government will take all parties into confidence regarding the operation. He noted that while the PTI believes the operation will “only lead to further instability,” it would “participate in the all-parties conference and hear what the government has to say.” His remarks came after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he would organize an APC to “gain political parties’ confidence” in the operation.
Military commanders also spoke on “politically motivated digital terrorism” during the meeting, accusing conspirators of using lies and fake news on social media to induce despondency in Pakistan. They expressed solidarity with the people of Kashmir and Palestine, condemning the human rights violations in these two regions. (Asim Yasin, “Operation Azm-e-Istehkam: Army concerned at ‘unwarranted criticism’,” The News International, 6 July 2024; Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Military brushes aside criticism of new ‘vision’,” Dawn, 6 July 2024)
In Brief
JUDICIARY
January judgement stripping the PTI of its bat symbol “remains a rolling disaster,” argues an opinion in Dawn
On 6 July, in an opinion titled “What a mess,” Asad Rahim Khan argued that the judgement stripping the PTI of its electoral symbol “remains a rolling disaster.” It has led to the parliament being “paralyzed,” legal wrangling over reserved seats, leaving a full bench of the Supreme Court to pick through the mess. Describing the developments in the aftermath of the judgement “as legal jiggery-pokery to suppress the will of the people,” the author argues “elected representatives cannot be denied their rightful strength in the assembly.” The author also brought up the fact that CJP Isa was not a “literalist” earlier and even if he is one now, the Constitution does not allow for the reserved seats to be allocated to the “loser.” Further, even in criminal cases, “literalism was let go.” The author concludes that the question of reserved seats not only “concerns minority representation, but the fate of democracy itself.” (Asad Rahim Khan, “What a mess,” Dawn, 6 July 2024)
ECONOMY
Indirect taxes push weekly inflation to 23.5 per cent
On 6 July, Dawn reported that short-term inflation has risen to 23.59 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This is because of the “tax measures enacted in the budget that led to a high cost of living.” Another factor is the Pakistan Muslim League (N) government’s decision to allow sugar exports, which has inflated the price of said commodity at the domestic level. The index comprises 51 items and this week’s data shows a rise in the price of 29 items, decline in the prices of five and no change in those of 17. In the week ending on 4 July and on a week-on-week basis, the short-term inflation has increased by 1.28 per cent. The government has also reversed the low prices of petroleum and diesel from the beginning of the financial year and also increased sales tax and customs on fresh fruits and vegetables imported from Iran and Afghanistan. Consequently, this has resulted in an inflation of food and non-food items. On an annual basis, some of the goods whose prices have increased in the first quarter include tomato at 161.12 per cent, onion at 79.04 per cent, chilly powder at 55 per cent, and LPG at 21.15 per cent price drops were seen in some items, for example, wheat flour dropped to 28.5 per cent, chicken to 28.23 per cent, cooking oil to 15.17 per cent and so forth. (Mubarak Zen Khan, “Indirect taxes fuel weekly inflation to 23.5 per cent”, Dawn, 6 July 2024)
PM Sharif takes stock of FBR reforms
On 6 July, Dawn reported that a meeting was chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for the review of the Federal Board of Revenue on 5 July. At the meeting, the PM was informed of the identification of “4.5 million potential taxpayers” and “300,000 new taxpayers” who paid their returns as a result of government measures. Additionally, the tax refunds to 4,000 companies were stopped due to cases of “under-invoicing and forged sales tax refunds.”
Hence, to improve transparency, Sharif asked for the installation of modern scanners at seaports, a report consisting of tax evasion estimates and preventive measures as well as the appointment of personnel of excellent professional repute to formulate the taxation policy. On the other hand the FBR, under the PM’s approval has withdrawn powers from 25 chief commissioners in all offices of Large Taxpayer and Regional Taxpayers Offices. A new post was made, termed “commissioner refund” for the swift resolution of refund cases from 1 July. It also issued a notice for the “transfer and postings of 101 officers of the Inland Revenue Service.” (Mehtab Haider, “4.5m potential taxpayers identified: PM,” Dawn, 6 July 2024)
Domestic debt rises to PKR 67.8 trillion
On 6 July, according to The News International, Pakistan’s debt rose by 11.46 per cent during July 2023 to May 2024, from PKR 66.1 trillion to PKR 67.8 trillion. On a year-on-year basis the government debt has risen to 15 per cent in May 2024. The government has been forced to resort to domestic borrowing to due to its “budget deficit, maturing debt repayment and growing interest rates”. However, there are signs of a decrease in inflation as the interest rate was lowered from 22 per cent to 20.5 per cent by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). There looms an accumulation of private credit as “government’s domestic debt increased by 19 per cent to PKR 46.2 trillion”, May experienced a 4 per cent rise on a monthly basis and a 25 per cent rise on an annual basis. On a positive note, the SBP data released on 4 July reflects a decline in foreign debt. In the backdrop of the finalization of a loan with the IMF, there has been an increase in foreign reserves amounting to USD 494 million. (Erum Zaidi, “Public debt increases to Rs67.8 trillion in 11MFY2024”, The News International, 6 July 2024)
MEDIA
“Shutting down the internet, phones and social media is not the way to ensure communal peace,” argues an editorial in Dawn
On 6 July, an editorial titled “Gagging social media” in Dawn criticized the Punjab government’s suggestion “calling for the gagging of social media apps during Muharram,” as “troubling.” The editorial conceded that security concerns during Muharram are “absolutely valid,” however, cutting off internet and gagging social media are not the solution. This is because “the presence of violent hate groups that have been fanning the flames of communalism in society for decades” is the real problem while “hate material and misuse of social media” are mere symptoms. The editorial further argued that the government’s suggestion can set a terrible precedent and could be used “by some elements within the state to permanently throttle free expression.” The editorial also rightly pointed out other repercussions of the proposed move: countrywide disruption of communication and adverse effect on e-commerce. The editorial also highlighted that such precedents can be used to stifle strikes and protests in the future. Instead of the proposed move, the editorial suggested that “less intrusive and less draconian methods” could be used. For instance, through “greater vigilance and monitoring,” communal harmony can be maintained. (“Gagging social media,” Dawn, 6 July 2024)
SECURITY
Bomb attack in Mardan kills three and injures five
On 5 July, a bomb attack on the Jalala Bridge at Malakand-Mardan Road killed three people and injured five other, including two children. Local police spokesman, Farman Ali Khan told Dawn that a remote-controlled bomb was planted on the bridge in Takhtbai tehsil of Mardan. The bomb was triggered when a police van and motorcycle rickshaw were crossing the bridge. All three travelling in the rickshaw were killed. The area has been cordoned off and a search operation has been launched to nab the culprits. (Muhammad Jamal Hoti, “Three killed in Mardan bomb attack,” Dawn, 6 July 2024)
AF-PAK
Former Ambassador calls Pakistan and Afghanistan ‘conjoined twins’
On 6 July, The News International revealed that in a statement released by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Ayaz Wazir has stated that “challenges and tensions” between Afghanistan and Pakistan is due to the non-existence of a bilateral dialogue. Wazir made this statement while chairing the 5th Round of ‘Pak-Afghan tribal stakeholders dialogue’ held in Peshawar. According to Wazir, “both nations must prioritize negotiations and diplomatic interventions over military options”. Issues related to girls’ education do not get the attention they deserve as in Pakistani and Afghan societies and it is the responsibility of scholars from religious community to engage with the de facto authority of Afghanistan and understand their priorities and concerns. He added, that “Pakistan and Afghanistan are conjoined twins and are never meant not to be separated”, they must collaborate on “strengthening their security against threats from terrorism and prioritize counter-terrorism cooperation” and cease the “blame game.” Former chairperson of Council of Islamic Ideology also attended the dialogue and stated that Pakistan’s hosting of Afghan refugees during periods of unrest in Afghanistan must be acknowledged as “an international humanitarian obligation”, of a “neighboring country.” Assistant Professor from University of Peshawar, Dr. Aamir Raza opined the empowering of ‘jirgas’ or tribal councils “to play a more active role in conflict resolution and community governance,” to “foster dialogue” and build “trust at the grassroots level.” Tribal leaders expressed the “importance of consulting and empowering” them as their local influence and insights could be leveraged, as they are essential in conflict resolution. (Rasheed Khalid, “Pak-Afghan tribal stakeholders’ dialogue”, The News International, 6 July 2024)
CPEC
“Pakistan can’t choose between China and the USA,” suggests an opinion in The Nation
On 6 July, in an opinion titled “CPEC to CPEC 2.0,” in The Nation, Sher Ali Bukhari reviewed the historical trajectory of CPEC, its importance for Pakistan, and possible solutions to problems plaguing its completion and effective implementation. The author has argued that Pakistan’s historical support and diplomacy before during “the isolation period of China that acted as a bridge between China and the international community” deepened their relationship over time and in return China proposed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor “CPEC” when it became “the second largest economy in” 2010 and decided to establish BRI. Officially launched in 2013, “Pakistan viewed CPEC as a game changer in the region.” The author has argued that a deep economic partnership between the two “can deepen their strategic relations and become partners in regional peace and connectivity.” The author points out that the journey from CPEC to CPEC 2 has been fraught with difficulties: from the US trying to present “rival plans” to India smearing the CPEC as “debt-trap” and raising objections towards projects located in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The author also alleged that India also is engaged in sabotaging the CPEC projects by “covertly attacking Chinese workers and engineers for sabotaging CPEC Projects while instigating terrorism in Baluchistan for crippling Gwadar Port.” The author emphasized that for a successful CPEC, Pakistan must “eliminate the menace of terrorism,” “build political stability,” undertake necessary economic reforms and be cautious about the mounting debt from CPEC. Most importantly, Pakistan should do this without antagonizing the US. (Sher Ali Bukhari, "CPEC to CPEC 2.0," The Nation, 6 July 2024)
INDIA VIEW
“India may not be as robust as advertised,” argues and opinion The News International
On 6 July, in an opinion titled “What to do with India?,” Engineer Khurram Dastgir-Khan highlighted India’s problems and argued that “India may not be as robust as advertised.” He, however, conceded that “Pakistan has its own challenges.” The myriad issues plaguing India range from: “glaring economic inequality,” “relative weakness against China,” increasing unemployment, “crippling mass poverty,” agitated farmers, and “systematic suppression of minorities, especially Muslims.” The author argues that this has put a dent in India’s image. However, the “widening” gap between India and Pakistan’s economic, diplomatic and military strengths has allowed the Modi government to pursue a 'not war, not peace' strategy to punish Pakistan beneath the nuclear umbrella” since 2016. The author suggests that in order to deal with India and “salvage its international reputation,” Pakistan should “stop offering talks to India,” materialize its talk on “regional geo-economics” and eradicate “violent extremism” from the country, deepen its partnership with China and SCO, conduct “discreet but consistent diplomacy with our European partners,” focus on achieving “parity with India’s provisional status in the Nuclear Suppliers Group,” “expose India’s human rights violations across the world” and “invest in studying India. (Engineer Khurram Dastgir-Khan, “What to do with India?,” The News International, 6 July 2024)
WORLD VIEW
Labor Party in the UK has taken over “a country weaker and more dysfunctional in almost every way,” argues an editorial in The News International
On 6 July, an editorial in The News International titled “Landslide by Labour” reviewed the recently concluded UK elections and termed the defeat of the conservatives the “worst electoral performance by Conservative Party ever” in terms of seat share. The editorial described the 14 year long Tory rule in the UK as “dismal.” Referring to the Brexit, the “migrant scandal,” and a poor performing economy, the editorial pointed out to the Conservative government’s “total inability to govern their country sensibly.” The party also was unable to “navigate” the divide between “far-right backbenchers and outsiders like Nigel Farage and more pragmatic centrists.” The editorial further argues that the Labor Party has thus taken over “a country weaker and more dysfunctional in almost every way than the one they inherited.” Describing the win of the Labor Party “a landslide victory,” the editorial commented on the possible changes that this shift in power could bring. The editorial argues that the winning party has “an unenviable task ahead” as not only will it have to deal with a “resurgent far right” but also intra-party divisions. Further, the editorial highlights that the intra-party divide is of the probable new Prime Minister and Labor Party leader Keir Starmer’s own making: His sidelining of previous leader Jeremy Corbyn. This means that the most immediate challenge for Starmer is staying in power. (“Landslide by Labour,” The News International, 6 July 2024)
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We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided
- Dr Yasmin Rashid
The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention adopted Opinion 22/2024 concerning Pakistan, finding the deprivation of liberty of Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi to be arbitrary.
- UN Special Procedures
Congratulations to Keir Starmer on his election as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Look forward to further deepening the strong bonds of friendship between our two nations.
- Ishaq Dar
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“The next IMF programme will not be the last.”
-An opinion in Dawn, ‘A heavy burden’
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