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In Brief
Clashes in Gwadar continue, as the government and protestors blame each other
On 29 July, the Balochistan provincial government and protesters exchanged blame over who was responsible for the violence in Gwadar’s Balcoh Rajee Muchi, where at least three people died after clashes between security personnel and the Balochistan Yakjehti Committee (BYC). As per Dawn’s sources, two people were killed and many others injured after security forces stopped a convoy at the Talar checkpost, while officials maintained that the forces were trying to defend themselves against a mob which was attacking the checkpost. The third person was killed during clashes that erupted after authorities used tear gas to disperse people. This incident also injured eight people and led to 20 being arrested. On 29 July, a day after these clashes, allegations were passed from either side in Gwadar amid a communications blackout. The BYC announced shutter down strikes and sit-ins across Balochistan against the “worst brutality of the state of Pakistan in Gwadar,” as part of which forces “attacked the peaceful protest,” and allegedly did not allow the injured to be taken to the hospital or access an ambulance. Expressing fear of multiple casualties if the injured are not given immediate medical attention,” the BYC alleged that hundreds have been “forcibly disappeared from the sit-in venue and Gwadar city,” while houses were “raided and ransacked.”
Balochistan’s Chief Minister, Sarfraz Bugti, said that the government had a previous agreement with the BYC that included acknowledgement of the state’s right to decide the destination for a protest. Though the government reportedly suggested the protest be held at Turbat, Gwadar was chosen by the protesters. He asserted that the “intentions of this rally were not peaceful,” stating that the BYC’s “purpose is only to sabotage all those activities which benefit the people of Balochistan somehow.” Bugti emphasized that the government would “not allow anyone to take the law into their own hands,” adding that it had offered to hold talks and negotiations. Separately, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated that a “violent mob” had “assaulted security forces’ personnel employed for security duties in Gwadar,” killing a resident of Sibi district. It also added: “In addition, the unprovoked assaults by the violent protesters have resulted in injuries to sixteen soldiers, including an officer. While on the other hand, fake and malicious propaganda is being spread on social media using doctored pictures and videos by the propagandists to gain sympathy and support.” Urging citizens to “not to fall prey to the propaganda,” the ISPR maintained that “violent actions of the mob are unacceptable and those responsible will be brought to justice.” (Iftikhar Shirazi, “Govt, protesters trade blame as Gwadar’s Baloch National Gathering descends into violence,” Dawn¸ 29 July 2024)
POLITICS
JI leader warns it would extend protests if demands are not met
On 29 July, at a sit-in at Liaquat Bagh Chowk in Rawalpindi, the Emir of Jamaat e Islami (JI), Hafiz Naeemur Rehman, gave the government an ultimatum by warning he may call on all citizens to stop paying their electricity bills if the party’s demands are not met. The delay in addressing the party’s demands of eliminating past agreements with independent power producers (IPPs) would have consequences for the government, and would also lead to protests expanding to Karachi, Peshawar, and Quette within the following two days. The problem with IPPs stems from the fact that 70 to 80 per cent of them are non-operational due to contractual issues and the government holds shares in 52 per cent of them. With regard to education, Rehman denounced the government for dragging its feet and called for the abolition of taxes, levies on petroleum, and electricity taxes. He said: “This is not mere politics. While they [rulers] adhere to the teachings of Islam, they follow unjust laws. Sovereignty belongs only to Allah; anyone who denies this is a tyrant. Those who recognize Allah as the provider and owner fear no one Additionally, he asked how the government had neglected “the education and rights” of the “daughters” of Pakistan, and ensured that his party would implement policies that imprison those who deny women their rights. He decried the growing costs of the government’s “extravagance,” accusing it of lacking vision, saying that the “days of distributing laptops and sacks of flour for photo ops are over.” (“JI threatens nationwide power bills boycott,” The Express Tribune, 30 July 2024)
TLP members booked for inciting violence against Chief Justice Isa
On 29 July, two members of Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), including leader Saqib Ibrahim, were taken into custody, while about 1500 were booked by the Okara police after the party made violent statements against the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Qazi Faez Isa, at a public address at the Lahore Press Club in Okara. Earlier last week, the TLP held a series of gatherings in various parts of Pakistan against the apex court’s judgement in the Mubarak Sani case. The case was booked under sections 7 and 9 of the Punjab Holy Quran Act, 2011 for a crime Sani committed back in 2019. However, the SC said that these provisions were made part of the law in 2021, two years after the alleged crime. Following this, during one of the gatherings outside the Lahore Press Club, TLP’s vice-emir Pir Zaheerul Hasan Shah delivered remarks relating to the incitement of violence against Isa. Though he claimed that he was speaking in a personal capacity, the statement drew condemnation and led to Shah being booked by Lahore’s Qila Gujjar Singh police on 28 July. The complainant stated in the FIR that head money of PKR ten million was offered in exchange for engaging in violence against Isa, and added that Shah had “threatened” Isa and “spread religious hatred.”
Also on 29 July, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif pointed out how certain elements are “trying to incite people to killings on social media through extremist posts.” He asserted that the state would “take action against this because things being said about Qazi sahab is based on lies and he has been targeted through different tactics for the last few years.” Speaking on the importance of the Constitution and the writ of the state, he maintained that no group could “incite violence in the name of faith or politics.” Separately, Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Attaullah Tarar, condemned the decrees against Isa, saying that the issue had “gone beyond condemnation” and would be “dealt with an iron fist.” Denouncing the “politically motivated false statements” against Isa, he emphasized that there is “room for such statements in the State of Pakistan and it will not be tolerated.” (Asif Chaudhry, “Two TLP men in custody, hundreds booked as hunt for 'inciters' continues,” Dawn, 30 July 2024; Wasim Riaz, “TLP vice emir booked under terrorism law as govt vows 'iron' action on threats to top judge," Dawn, 29 July 2024)
President Zardari calls for greater minority representation in government positions
On 29 July, President Asif Ali Zardari petitioned for greater female and minority representation in government positions, with the aim of enhancing their inclusion in mainstream of society. In his meeting with a delegation of the Federal Public Service Commission led by senior member Akbar Hussain Durrani, Zardari urged the Commission to improve recruitment to the civil service, calling for the selection of the right person for the right job. He highlighted the need to adopt new technologies and methods such as computerized testing, that would aid in efficient and transparent recruitment of qualified and efficient civil servants. Separately, he emphasized the need to enhance the outreach of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) by establishing an office at Gwadar, so that the deserving people of the area will be able to benefit from the programme. (“President wants more women in govt jobs,” The Express Tribune, 30 July 2024)
Imran Khan reaffirms ‘peaceful protests’ outside GHQ on 9 May
On 29 July, Imran Khan told the media that he had called for a peaceful protest outside the General Headquarters (GHQ) in case of his arrest on May 9. However, he specified that the PTI was not involved in the “pre-planned” violence that unfurled. This statement came as the accountability court extended the remand of Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi for ten, and instructed the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) to produce them in the Toshakhana reference on 10 August. Khan claimed that CCTV footage would help prove the PTI’s innocence, adding he would approach the court to seek production of the footage of the 9 May violence. Additionally, he condemned the PML-N government for its crackdown on social media activists, alleging that those who used “bogus” elections to come to power were trying to cause a rift between the PTI and the army. (Malik Asad, “Imran again admits calling 'peaceful protest' outside GHQ, in cantonments,” Dawn, 30 July 2024)
“There is a need to urgently rethink the policies that have been chosen,” cautions an editorial in Dawn
On 30 July, an editorial in Dawn titled ‘Summer of protests’ noted the “seismic disruptions” to Pakistan’s social order, taking the examples of recent developments in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Islamabad. The “significant turmoil” in each of these areas has exposed how decision-makers are “out of their depth” when combating the issues, causing the challenges to expand. In Balochistan, Mahrang Baloch was met with “scorn and treated in the crudest way possible” during her march to Islamabad to demand the whereabouts of missing persons. Currently, the Baloch people have rallied around her, and the state, which is unable to cope with the “outpouring of sympathy,” has responded with even more violence stemming from “desperation.” In Bannu, the federal government’s failure to keep national security and politics separate resulted in an uprising, causing violence and “unnecessary bloodshed” that just added to the pre-existing tensions between KP and the centre. The editorial questioned whether the situation would have been different had the federal government “heeded multiple calls to take the provincial political leadership into confidence.” In Islamabad, the state has recently taken “several contradictory positions.” Ahead of the JI protest, the TLP seized an “important artery” in Islamabad, and its decision to protest the Gaza war was “entertained” until talks were held. Then, seemingly unsatisfied with the “nuisance it had caused,” the party issued a death warrant for the country’s chief justice. It shows how the state’s “soft touch” has emboldened the TLP and let it think it can “cross unthinkable lines.” Meanwhile, despite the PTI assuring it wanted to hold peaceful protests, the campaign to suppress the party “continues apace.” The policies currently in place are “catalyzing societal breakdown.” (“Summer of protests,” Dawn, 30 July 2024)
ECONOMY
Fitch Ratings upgrades Pakistan ratings for the second time in 12 months
On 30 July, The Express Tribune reported on Fitch Ratings upgrading Pakistan’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) from ‘CCC’ to ‘CCC+.’ This means that there has been an improvement in the country’s foreign debt repayment capacity ahead of the IMF’s executive board meeting, for approving a USD seven billion Extend Fund Facility (EFF). Earlier in February 2023, the status was downgraded to ‘CCC-’; however, in the last 12 months, the rating was upgraded twice. Fitch stated in its commentary that the upgrade “reflects greater certainty over continued availability of external funding, in the context of Pakistan’s staff-level agreement (SLA) with the IMF on a new 37-month USD seven billion Extended Fund Facility.” Of the more than USD 22 billion external public debt maturing in FY25, USD 13 billion is in the form of deposits, USD four billion given by Chinese commercial banks, and USD four billion from multilateral creditors. Fitch added that the Pakistani government claimed to have “identified over USD 24 billion in gross external financing, mostly from bilateral and multilateral sources,” including a potential Panda bond issuance and not including potential bond issuance or the renewal of an oil facility with Saudi Arabia.
It estimated that official gross reserves rose to over USD 15 billion by June 2024 from USD ten billion at the end of June 2023, and projected a rise to USD 22 billion by the end of FY26. Further, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) narrower measure of net liquid foreign exchange reserves recovered to reach over USD nine billion by June 2024, while the country was able to narrow its fiscal deficit due to strong performance on the previous IMF programme. However, “Pakistan’s large funding needs leave it vulnerable if it fails to implement challenging reforms, which could undermine programme performance and funding.” Additionally, according to the agency, Pakistan will be able to secure additional IMF funding “given the strong past record of support and significant policy measures in the recent budget for the fiscal year ending June 2025.” (“Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s long-term rating,” The Express Tribune, 30 July 2024)
EXTERNAL
Indonesian envoy calls for tapping into bilateral trade potential
On 29 July, in his speech at the Quetta Press Club, the Charge d’ affaires of Indonesia to Pakistan, Rahmat Hindiarta Kusuma, highlighted the untapped trade potential between both countries, with the current annual trade standing at USD 45 million. He declared that the Indonesian government is prioritizing “economic diplomacy and people-to-people contact,” and its “arrival in Balochistan is a part of this agenda.” Kusuma elaborated that the Baloch business sector, media and civil society had a lot of potential, and could be an “important factor” in Pakistan and Indonesia’s diplomatic ties. Additionally, he mentioned that he had “invited the business community of Balochistan to participate in a trade expo” in Indonesia this October. The expo would see businessmen, trade, and industrialists from 116 countries, making it one of the biggest global business activities. He also outlined the opportunities for Baloch students to study in Indonesia and get scholarships, and pointed out that 400 Pakistani students are on scholarships in Indonesia, which can be increased through a scholarship quota for the students of Balochistan. (Saleem Shahid, “Indonesian envoy calls for increasing volume of bilateral trade,” Dawn, 30 July 2024)
SECURITY
Five militants were killed in three separate operations in KP
On 29 July, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement saying that a joint Intelligence-Based Operation (IBO) in the Mohmand district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) led to three militants being killed. The security forces obtained arms, ammunition and explosives. The ISPR added that during an “intense fire exchange,” Constable Abrar Hussain was killed. Separately, in an operation conducted in Dera Ismail Khan, a wanted militant named Sifatullah was killed while three were injured. Additionally, security forces killed one militant in North Waziristan. The ISPR asserted: “Pakistan’s security forces stand shoulder to shoulder with other law enforcement agencies to ensure peace and stability across Pakistan and such sacrifices of our brave men further strengthen our resolve.” (“Five militants killed in seperate operations across KP,” Dawn, 30 July 2024)
CLIMATE CHANGE/ENVIRONMENT
NDMA warns of heavy nationwide rains and potential flash floods
On 29 July, the National Disaster Management Authority warned that heavy rains may stir up flash floods in the northeastern portion of Punjab between 28 July to 4 August. Due to the movement of monsoon currents from the Bay of Bengal to the central and southern parts, rainfall is set to pervade Pakistan’s river system. Urban flooding is expected in parts of Punjab, including Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Faisalabad. Surrounding areas of Sindh, such as Hyderabad and Karachi, may also be subjected to the same weather conditions. Low-to-medium-level flows are anticipated in rivers such as the Jhelum upstream of Mangla and the river Chenab at Tarbela, and increased flows may be expected in the nullahs of Zhob. In its advisory, the NDMA cautioned that flash floods may “strike suddenly” and catch people off guard. Citizens were warned to avoid crossing bridges if “water is flowing rapidly,” and were instructed to not stay in “weak structures.” (“Monsoon currents to bring heavy rain nationwide: NDMA,” Dawn, 30 July 2024)
“The extreme heat this summer, coupled with a declining quality of life, has failed to spur those in power or those with resources into action,” laments an opinion in The News
On 30 July, an opinion in The News International titled ‘This is climate hell’ by Masood Lohar pointed out that the world experienced its hottest day in 100,000 years, fuelling concerns about the “accelerating pace of climate change.” Global temperatures averaged 17.23 degrees Celsius on 4 July 2024, though extreme heat is just part of a “broader trend driven by human activities” including deforestation and burning fossil fuels. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are also a cause, with carbon dioxide levels reaching 420 parts per million, the highest in human history, along with significant rises in methane and nitrous oxide. Implications of the extreme heat are already evident, in the form of heatwaves, crop failures, and threats to marine ecosystems. It also carries health risks, especially for vulnerable populations, including heatstroke and dehydration. In countries like Pakistan where power outages and water shortages are frequent, the severity of the crisis is higher. Lohar also highlighted how agriculture is facing unprecedented challenges, as crop yields are going down, and food prices and insecurity are going up. This calls for “decisive leadership and responsible behavior.” As per experts, heatwaves will impact Sindh and Punjab’s crop yield. 4 July is a “dire warning,” and with COP29 approaching, the world must decide whether “slow climate negotiations can keep pace with nature’s rapid climate shocks.” In Pakistan and other water-scarce countries, the real-estate sector uses fresh water for construction and ignores the consequences this wastewater has on marine environments. A “relentless pursuit of land for housing” by the affluent class has contributed to ecosystem destruction. In Punjab and Sindh, urban sprawl has threated food security, while in Karachi, coastal real estate is developing without consideration for tidal pressures. Lohar concluded by equating this situation to a “home burning down while its occupants play the fiddle, oblivious to the flames.” (Masood Lohar, “This is climate hell,” The News International, 30 July 2024)
SOCIETY
“Women who dare to speak out are not welcomed here and some of them will be punished,” says an opinion in Dawn
On 30 July, an opinion in Dawn by Arifa Noor titled ‘No country for women’ contended that women are at the receiving end of the “battle” between the state of Pakistan and its citizens, from Balochistan to Karachi. Mahrang Baloch, who called for a protest in Gwadar, and Sammi Deen, have become “household names” as they were met with resistance in the form of blockages, intimidation, and violence. Since mainstream media was missing, social media showed how “dynamic young, educated women” are leading a movement. Images showed how women bore the “brunt of the state’s bullying tactics” after being taken into custody, and symbolized a “larger pattern of oppression vis-à-vis women who became politically active.” Though political persecution was limited to the “top tier,” it has spread to other women leaders, ordinary workers, and protesters. Noor detailed how the “incarceration of PTI women has taken the persecution of women to new lows.” Many cases where women are targeted involve educated women, who have “opted for activism or politics in their own right.” However, Pakistan has “never been comfortable” with women who want to take their fate into their own hands or speak their minds. The harassment of women online is a “constant barrage,” showing how misogyny is so widespread. Despite the passage of new laws, women are not afforded greater protection as their safety has “never been a priority.” Though some women are more privileged based on their ethnicity or class, the bottom line is that women who dare to speak out are unwelcome in Pakistan. (Arifa Noor, “No country for women,” Dawn¸ 30 June 2024)
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