NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Xinhua
IN FOCUS
BY Dincy Adlakha
Four internal drivers of China’s external behaviour: Review of Amb Shivshankar Menon’s essay
On 12 January, Centre for Social and Economic Progress published a working paper by Amb Shivshankar Menon titled, ‘Internal Drivers of China’s External Behaviour'.
The primary hypothesis of the essay is that unlike most countries, China highly depends on regime survival, internal stability, economic growth and other internal interests while framing external interactions.
The essay begins with China’s relations having worsened with all neighbours recently except Pakistan, Cambodia and Russia. It looks at the “Wolf warrior” diplomacy, extension of “Chinese Dream” to the diaspora, and constant assertion for territorial integration and sovereignty that leave sour impressions of Chinese external behavior.
1. Geography of China
The essay suggests that major powers of the world like the US and the UK are situated in seas that separate the enemies. However, China is surrounded by foes on land as well as sea. It has contentions of territory with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, India over Arunachal Pradesh, and other complications like Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan. Such opposing geography has made sovereignty a core value for China that must be guarded through military, economy and information security.
2. Internal stability imperative
According to the essay, China realised it early (as early as the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre) that internal stability is crucial to avoid foreign interference and strong global standing. Ever since, China has promoted “stability over all else.” Leaders like Mao and Xi have promoted ideological stability by ultranationalism and the state intervenes to ensure demographic, religious, and societal stability as well. Economic and military strength of China have been prioritised to avoid faltering and behavioral units like PLA, the CCP and national banks have been strengthened to make China stand tall.
3. Realigning the past with nationalism
The essay recalls Chinese narratives of being the centre of the world (which also gives the name Zhongguo) that were later switched to being a victim of foreign imperialism. From creating historical memory of avenging the “national humiliation” suffered due to Japan and Britain to Mao expanding the victor or hero narrative, China has utilized its past to influence public support. Once again, Xi Jinping appeals to the victims of Chinese archetypes and also showcases the victor built through the suffering. The emphasis on tragedies of Opium Wars and 1911 revolution is a pathway to the focus on China’s growing economic and regional success, especially through initiatives like Common Prosperity.
4. Maritime dominance
The essay argues that China has always remained a power that focused on land and slash the sea links. However, its export-led development model and dependence on the world for energy, raw materials and technology have forced it to enter the sea. China has harnessed its maritime capabilities late but strong. Its behavior as a maritime power can be guessed through its internal dynamics but not forecasted due to its vulnerabilities at global trade.
On the above four factors, the essay concludes with the following three major projections. First, China will become more assertive for its internal needs to be accepted in external scenarios. Second, this assertiveness will create resistance from other global powers. And finally, an internally driven foreign approach will make it difficult for other countries to relate with Chinese interests.
References:
Shivshankar Menon, “Internal Drivers of China’s External Behaviour,” Centre for Social and Economic Progress, 12 January 2022
IN BRIEF
By Avishka Ashok and Keerthana Nambiar
INTERNAL
Xinjiang’s economy hit record high with an increase of 7 per cent
On 23 January, Xinjiang local government delivered a report to the annual session of the regional legislature on Xinjiang’s economy. According to the report, in 2021 Xinjiang’s economy expanded up to seven percent year-on-year about 1.6 trillion yuan. Global Times reported that there are three drivers of Xinjiang economy- fixed-asset investment, social retail and foreign trade which increased by 15 per cent, 17 per cent and 5.8 per cent respectively. Cotton is the major agricultural product and the planting area has reached 2.5 million hectares. The regional government stated that they will take full advantages of the cotton production, petrochemical and coal chemical industries for an overall development of Xinjiang. ( Xinjiang's regional economy grows 7% in 2021, with grain output hitting record high,” Global Times, 23 January 2022)
Chinese PLA pledges its support in eradicating corruption within the party and the society
On 24 January, South China Morning Post reported that the Chinese military promised its support to the Communist Party of China and extended its support to working towards the anti-corruption drive. One of the Central Military Commission’s Vice-chairmen said that the PLA is loyal to the party and will innovatively eliminate corruption. The remarks were made soon after President Xi Jinping promoted seven generals in the PLA. (“Chinese military pledges loyalty to Communist Party and vows to keep up anti-corruption drive,” South China Morning Post, 24 January 2022)
REGIONAL
34 PLA aircrafts enter Taiwan’s ADIZ
On 23 January, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army had caused the largest incursion since October 2021 by sending 39 aircrafts to Taiwan’s ADIZ. The recent incursion included 34 fighter jets, four electronic warfare aircraft and one single bomber aircraft. The incursion took place in the northeast section of the Pratas island. (“Taiwan reports new large-scale Chinese air force incursion,” The Strait Times, 24 January 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
China accuses UK of following Cold War playbook
On 23 January, China warned the UK not to follow the Cold War playbook after Britain’s top foreign and defence officials visit to Australia. The Chinese Embassy to the UK made a statement on its website: “Today's world is a far cry from the one 40 or 50 years ago. The Cold War is long gone!,” reported Global Times. The statement came in as a response to UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss at the Lowy Institute of Australia. The Chinese embassy spokesperson said that the accusations made against China are “full of disinformation.” (“China slams UK for following Cold War playbook,” Global Times, 23 January 2022)
President Xi Jinping exchanges congratulatory remarks with Israeli President Issac Herzog
On 24 January, Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with Israeli President Issac Herzog marking the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Israel. President Xi pointed out the deepened relations, diplomatic relations and comprehensive since the establishment of ties. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also congratulated his Israeli counterpart Naftali Bennet and said “China and Israel have carried out fruitful and innovative cooperation and achieved mutual benefits and win-win results,” reported CCTN. (“Xi exchanges congratulations with Israeli president on 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties,” Global Times, 24 January 2022: “Xi exchanges congratulations with Israeli president on 30th anniversary of China-Israel diplomatic ties,” CGTN, 24 January 2022)