NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : REUTERS/Oleksandr Klymenko
IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews
The Minsk Protocol
What is the Minsk Protocol?
The Minsk Protocol, signed in 2014 and 2015, consists of two agreements – the Minsk I and Minsk II. Ratified in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, the protocol is a set of agreements created to end the conflict in the disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. The parties to the protocol include Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany along with representatives from the separatist regions and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Why did it come into being?
The two sets of Minsk agreements were a response to the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. It intended to bring an end to the separatist war in Donetsk and Luhansk – the larger Donbas region. The eastern region of Ukraine is largely industrial as it is pro-Russian; the area is occupied and de facto ruled by these proxy forces. The pro-Russian sentiment enabled the separatist war to be fought by these proxies; however, the Kremlin denies any connections to both the forces and the conflict.
Minsk I: The idea and its failure
The initial deal of the protocol, signed on 05 September 2014, involved a 12-point ceasefire agreement. The provisions mentioned in the agreement consisted of prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid deliveries, heavy weapons’ withdrawal combined with the continuation of arms control. An addition was the Kremlin demand to provide the Donbas region with an autonomous status along with the right of veto regarding Ukrainian foreign relations. However, this agreement had a very short life span. It failed within days of its ratification due to violations from both sides.
Minsk II: Another attempt
Signed in February 2015, the Minsk II signatories included the Trilateral Contact Group (includes representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE) along with two pro-Russian separatist regions’ leaders. The 16-hour talks participated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (the Normandy Four members) concluded with a 13-point agreement.
The measures set out in the ceasefire agreement included a call for “an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire” along with the “withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides”. The OSCE would henceforth monitor and verify the implementation of the aforementioned conditions. An important part of the agreement was the provision to consider an “interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law,” which would acknowledge their special status.
How well is Minsk II faring?
Since 2014, the first progress was seen in 2019. There were two prisoner swaps along with the first Normandy Four summit since 2016.
However, the success was limited; it had failed to achieve its aim of ending the separatist war in the Donbas region. Despite the multiple mentions of military and political steps to be undertaken via the agreement, most of them remain unexecuted. One of the primary issues the ceasefire agreement faces is with regard to Russian participation in the conflict. It maintains that it is not a party to the conflict and thus is not bound by the protocol. This is controversial since Ukraine repeatedly calls on the withdrawal of the Russian forces stationed in Donbas.
Meanwhile, the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU economic sanctions remain in place until the agreements are complete enforced. However, criticism against the protocol also arises with scholars claiming the agreement favours Russia while putting Ukraine at a disadvantage.
References:
“China weighs in on Ukraine and Russia in call with Blinken,” Deutsche Welle, 27 January 2022.
“Factbox: What are the Minsk agreements on the Ukraine conflict?,” Reuters, 06 December 2021.
Naja Bentzen, “Factbox: What are the Minsk agreements on the Ukraine conflict?,” European Parliament Research Service, March 2020.
“Ukraine ceasefire: New Minsk agreement key points,” BBC, 12 February 2015.
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
GERMANY
Germany bans Russia Today channel over license violation
On 02 February, Germany’s media regulator announced the ban of the German-language TV channel known as Russia Today (RT) belonging to the Russian State broadcaster. The Commission for Authorization and Supervision released a statement: “The organization and distribution of the TV program via live stream on the internet, via the mobile and smart TV app 'RT News' and via satellite must be discontinued.” The officials have said that the RT did not hold the right licence to broadcast in Germany and has previously tried to run its operations through a Serbian broadcasting licence. The Russian Foreign Ministry has called the act unreasonable. (“Germany bans Russian broadcaster RT’s German-language channel,” Politico, 02 February 2022)
THE UK
Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots orders a halt of post-Brexit checks
On 02 February, the Northern Irish Minister of Agriculture Edwin Poots ordered a halt of post-Brexit checks on agricultural food products into the region that came from the UK. He said the checks imposed had gravely affected the businesses in the UK and led to a surge in trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Poots said: "The advice concluded that I can direct the (Sanitary and phytosanitary) checks to cease in the absence of executive approval. I have now issued a formal instruction to halt all checks that were not in place on 31 December 2020 from midnight tonight." Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill called the decision a political stunt as the region has elections due in May 2020. Neill said it was: "an attempt by the DUP to unlawfully interfere with domestic, and international law." (Ian Graham, "N.Ireland minister orders halt to agri-food Brexit checks," Reuters, 02 February 2022; "Northern Irish minister orders end to post-Brexit controls," Euronews, 02 February 2022)
Boris Johnson's comments on Sue Gray's report
On 02 January, Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the Parliament's weekly Prime Minister's question time (PMQs) said: "I will comply with the law." Johnson made those remarks as he was being questioned about the report by civil servant Sue Gray on the partygate scandals. But, as reported by Euronews: "But unlike in previous weeks, Partygate did not dominate the sitting of the house, with Labour leader Keir Starmer instead grilling Johnson about economic issues." Gray further said she found "failures of leadership and judgement" on Johnson’s part. The police are still investigating the other 12 parties that were held and were not covered by Gray’s report. ("'I will comply with the law': Boris Johnson faces MPs after Gray report," Euronews, 02 February 2022)
CLIMATE
Tata Steel to be investigated by Dutch over excessive pollution complaints
On 02 February, Dutch opened a criminal investigation on Tata Steel. It will examine the pollution levels of the huge steelworks, to see whether it was intentional and unlawful. In the statement released: “introduction of hazardous substances into the air, soil and surface water" by Tata's plant in the port town of Ijmuiden "could potentially place the public's health in danger.” In response, Tata has said that it will cooperate with the investigation. The reason behind the launch was due to complaints coming from 800 people living near the steel factory. (“Tata Steel hit by Dutch criminal probe,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2022)
European Commission labels nuclear energy and gas as green under Taxonomy plans
On 02 February, the European Commission labelled nuclear energy and gas as green energy after a controversial divide amongst the European member states. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has welcomed the European Green Deal. She said: “Europe's man on the moon moment, our European destiny.” Although critics raised concerns that the step can threaten the EU’s target in becoming a climate neutral region by 2050. Along with the critics, many environmental organizations are also not in favor of the Green Deal proposal. (“European Commission declares nuclear and gas to be green,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2022)
MIGRATION
12 bodies of migrants found near Turkey-Greece border
On 02 February, 12 bodies of refugees were found at the Turkish border near Ipsala. The refugees were believed to have frozen to death and have caused issues between Turkey and Greece. Turkey has accused Greece of deliberately pushing the refugees back, leading them to be victims of the harsh cold conditions. Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu accused the Greek border patrols, saying: "They behave like thugs." Greece's Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi responded: "These specific migrants never made it to the border. Any suggestion they did, or indeed were pushed back into Turkey, is utter nonsense." Greece also accused Turkey of not keeping the March 2016 agreement where Ankara was supposed to deter refugees trying to cross the border via its north-eastern land frontier with Turkey. (Helena Smith, "12 people found frozen to death near Turkey's border with Greece," The Guardian, 02 February 2022; "Twelve migrants found frozen to death near Greek border, Turkish authorities say," Euronews, 02 February 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
The US increases military presence in Europe
On 02 February, the US announced the redeployment of 1,000 troops along with an additional 2,000 troops to Poland, Germany, and Romania. The US has also reserved 8,500 soldiers on its mainland who are ready to be mobilized if NATO needs support. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko responded to the announcement saying: "... will only fuel military tensions and narrow the field for political decisions." This would lead to the total number of US troops deployed in Poland reaching 4,000. Meanwhile, NATO has 5,000 troops stationed in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania under their Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) units. NATO is scheduled to extend its EFP strategy to Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. ("US to bolster positions in Europe with additional 3,000 troops," Euronews, 02 February 2022; Phil Stewart, "US sending nearly 3,000 troops to Eastern Europe in coming days," Reuters, 02 February 2022)