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NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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PR Commentary
Continuing Suicide Attacks in Pakistan: Why, Where and Who
D Suba Chandran
On 4 March 2025, a suicide attack on the Bannu Cantonment in the Bannu district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa resulted in the killing of five women, four children and six militants. The militants, according to the media reports, armed with explosives in two vehicles, were trying to enter the cantonment. A day earlier, another news report mentioned a woman suicide bomber targeting a paramilitary convoy in the Kalat district of Balochistan and killing a soldier belonging to the FC.
On 28 February 2025, in another major suicide attack, Maulana Hamidul Haq Haqqani leader of the JUI-S leader, was killed with six others in a suicide bombing at Darul Uloom Haqqania seminary in Nowshera district in KP. Maulana Haqqani was the son of Maulana Samiul Haq, founder of the JUI-S; Samiul Haq also headed the Darul Uloom Haqqania, founded by his father, Maulana Abdul Haq. The Darul Uloom Haqqania is considered the birthplace of the Afghan Taliban; leading members of the Taliban, including Mullah Omar, Sirajuddin Haqqani and Jalaludin Haqqani, studied here.
According to a report published by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) and referred by The News, Pakistan witnessed an increase in militant attacks in January, when compared to December 2024. According to the data, in January 2025, there were 74 militant attacks resulting in the killing of 20 civilians, 35 security forces, and 36 militants. In January 2025, most militant attacks occurred in two provinces – KP and Balochistan.
The above trend continued in February. According to the PICSS data, the militancy-related casualties in February were 55 civilians, 47 security forces and 156 militants.
For a detailed review of the above, see Rohini Reenum, “Trends in Terror attacks in February: More Civilian Casualties than Military, focused on Balochistan and KP,” Pakistan Reader, 04 March 2025.
Trends in militancy-related events and casualties during the first two months of 2025 appear to continue from 2024. According to a press release by the PICSS, militant attacks increased by 40 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023. In 2024, there were 1,177 casualties, including 488 civilians, 461 security forces, and 225 militants.
There has been a spike in militant attacks and casualties during the last 14 months. However, an important aspect of the above data relating to militant attacks during 2023-2025 is related to suicide attacks. In 2024, according to the PICSS data, there was a decline in suicide attacks inside Pakistan, when compared to 2023.
Why do suicide attacks continue in Pakistan, and why are they focused mainly in KP and now in Balochistan? Besides the suicide attack by a lone woman bomber last week in Balochistan, last year, on 10 November 2024, a major suicide attack in the Quetta railway station in Balochistan witnessed more than 25 civilians getting killed.
Who, Why and Where?
Based on the available data, the following three points could be made.
The suicide attacks, though smaller in the percentage of overall militant attacks – highlight the geographic trend – primarily KP and Balochistan. According to PICSS data, of the 17 suicide attacks in 2024, 12 of them took place in KP.
While the TTP and its affiliates normally claim responsibility for suicide attacks in KP, Baloch militant groups are blamed for the suicide attacks in Balochistan.
The suicide attacks, though smaller in overall numbers, have a high casualty rate. Unlike the regular militant attacks using hand weapons and grenades, the use of suicide bombs ends up having more extensive casualties, causing more panic and widespread destruction. Despite the security measures, it is easier for a suicide bomber to slip in wearing a vest than carrying a machine gun. The lethality and the approach could be two reasons why militant groups use suicide attacks.
The target of suicide attacks seems to be varied. From assassinating religious leaders like Maulana Hamidul Haq in Nowshera in KP to killing civilians in a railway station in Quetta in Balochistan, the victims belong to different categories. However, in KP, especially in the tribal districts, the security forces, cantonments and check posts have been the primary targets during the last 15 years.
There have also been occasional suicide attacks outside the above two provinces. These were well-planned and high-profile attacks with a larger casualty.
Will suicide attacks continue in Pakistan?
Though one could trace suicide attacks in Pakistan since 2001-02, it witnessed an alarming increase during 2007-2017. Since 2017, there has been a decline. However, the attacks continue. According to a PICSS report released in January 2025, there were 550 suicide bombings in Pakistan since 2001.
As a counterstrategy, the security forces across the world took time to devise means to prevent suicide attacks. However, they continued. Unless the perpetrators change their strategy or are entirely wiped out, counterstrategies to prevent suicide attacks have been less effective.
In Brief
POLITICS
Imran Khan seeks Fazlur Rehman’s membership in opposition alliance, says PTI General Secretary Raja
On 4 March, addressing media personnel outside the Central Jail post his meeting with Imran Khan, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Secretary General Barrister Salman Akram Raja revealed that he would communicate partially the directions regarding JUIF chief Fazlur Rehman that Khan had given him. He elaborated that PTI respects Rehman and would like him to join the opposition alliance. Raja also put to rest rumors regarding Khan’s health, assuring that he was well. He also dismissed allegations that Khan was not being provided with Suhoor and was disallowed from conducting religious activities. Raja revealed that Khan discussed future plans/strategies for the party and assured that the latter had no qualms about the party. (Shakeel Anjum, “Imran wants Fazl to join opposition alliance: Salman Akram,” The News International, 5 March 2025)
ECONOMY
On IMF’s second tranche:
“The government might just be able to keep the IMF onside for now, but it runs a serious risk of losing the people first,” argues an editorial in The News International
On 5 March, an editorial titled “IMF review,” The News International, highlighted what the next tranche of International Monetary Fund (IMF) would mean for the common Pakistani. On 3 March, an IMF mission visited Pakistan to review its progress in the first installment under the USD 7 billion Extended Facility Fund. It is set to evaluate Pakistan’s compliance with the predetermined benchmarks established by the IMF in order to release the second tranche of USD 1.1 billion. While Pakistan has shown favorable figures on macroeconomic statistics, the shortfall in revenue collection remains a matter of concern. Its shortfall volume in the current fiscal year is at PKR 604 billion. To address this, the government seeks to bring retailers under the tax net, but it may prove insufficient. However, this does not remain a major concern for the government as it has achieved a higher-than-estimated primary budget surplus and revenue-to-GDP ratio. Amid all of this, what should concern the average Pakistani is that they may not enjoy the benefits of tranche, at least not in the short term. They will experience minimal relief as the taxes and tariffs will continue to be high amid sluggish growth projected by the IMF, from 3.0 in the last month to 3.2 per cent of the current month. With no signs of interest rate cuts, economic analysts warn of the prolongation of high interest rates. It may result in fiscal strains, especially to fund debt servicing, and stifle economic recovery. Hence, the eventual burden of this will be borne by ordinary people as the “economic stabilization Pakistan has seen over the past few months has relied on taking more money from ordinary people to meet revenue collection targets.” If the government falls short of its revenue collection again, then the country may return to square one, as was the case last September. The main collateral here again is the people. Therefore, instead of trying to convince people that “'it could be worse’ and that they ought to be grateful,” the government should focus on not losing public support. (“IMF review,” The News International, 5 March 2025)
On Gwadar:
“Gwadar’s story” “is a reflection of Pakistan’s wider struggle to turn grand strategic ambitions into lasting economic transformation,” argues an opinion in The Express Tribune
On 5 March, in an opinion titled “The dream of Gwadar” in The Express Tribune, Syed Jalal Hussain discussed the untapped potential of the Gwadar port. Amid the establishment of an international airport in the port city, “a different story unfolds.” The forgotten China-Pakistan Economic Corridor deep sea port project is in limbo of a “promise and a reality.” While it may serve China’s Belt and Road Initiative objectives, it also provides opportunities to Pakistan’s economic growth and investment. It has been years since agreements have been inked and world-class infrastructure has been built but there are no ships in sight. The surroundings of the port are mired with paradoxes. What was meant to be a rival to the Dubai and Singapore trade hubs lacks connectivity to the economic zones of Pakistan as rail and road infrastructure are incomplete or poorly maintained. This is compounded by the growing discontent among the local communities. The people of Gwadar are restricted from accessing the sea to protect the projects that are supposed to elevate them. They also deal with water shortages and power outages. One of the main fallout of this is the rise of separatist Baloch insurgents who perceive the development projects with skepticism. They see their province being plundered instead of opportunities being created. In the grand scheme of things, the story of Gwadar is symbolic of Pakistan’s struggle to translate its grand ambitions into reality. The author suggests sustainable measures to be adopted to move forward from the state of affairs. He calls for local grievance redressal, political engagement, and policies that “encourage investment” and “cut through bureaucratic inertia” for inclusive instead of resorting to force to flexing muscles. (Syed Jalal Hussain, “The dream of Gwadar,” The Express Tribune, 5 March 2025)
SOCIETY
Rise in “mob-led attacks” against minorities: HRCP report
On 5 March, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) revealed in its report titled Under Siege: Freedom of Religion or Belief in 2023-24 that there has been a rise in cases of “mob-led attacks” against minorities, especially in their homes and places of worship. The report also highlighted the “arbitrary detention” of Ahmadis and the “desecration of their graves.” Further, the report pointed out that
“Hindu and Christian women” were vulnerable to “forced conversion.” The report revealed that upto October 2024, around 750 people had been incarcerated on charges of blasphemy. In most of these cases, legal action was taken following “disinformation on social media.” The report also enumerated four “faith-based killings” out of which in three the targets were Ahmadis. Additionally, the report revealed that around “42 attacks on Ahmadis’ places of worship were recorded” and nearly more than half of these happened in the presence of law enforcement agencies. The report also highlighted the role of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) in initiating blasphemy cases against Ahmadis. The report was displayed at a meeting of its National Interfaith Working Group which was constituted to advocate for the rights of minorities. The members suggested some procedural and constitutional changes. For instance, they called for “procedural changes to discriminatory laws that affect religious minorities disproportionately.” They also argued for a constitutional amendment providing minorities the right to hold office of the president and the prime minister. (“Mob-led attacks on Ahmadis growing, says HRCP,” Dawn, 5 March 2025)
SECURITY
Security attack in KP
On 4 March, security personnel foiled terror attack attempts on the Bannu Cantonment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Reports from security forces state that suicide bombers forced two explosive-laden vehicles into two different gates of the cantonment. The explosion caused infrastructure damage and killed at least 12 civilians and one personnel and injured 32 people, among many others. Initial reports suggest that two suicide bombers detonated themselves near the Kohati gate. This was followed by an infiltration attempt into the cantonment, which was prevented by the forces. Military sources reported by The News International have announced the launch of an operation to capture the attackers. So far, about six of them linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan have been killed, while the search continues. The attacks were claimed by the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) faction, Jaish Fursan Muhammad. Furthermore, verified reports suggest that these militants are in contact with Afghanistan through phone. (Muhammad Alam, Muhammad Anis & Yasir Shah, “Security forces foil attack on Bannu Cantt, killing 6 terrorists,” The News International, 5 March 2025)
IGP announces crucial development in the Madrassah bombing investigation
On 4 March, the Inspector General of Police of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Zulfiqar Hameed, announced a crucial development in the probe launched into the suicide attack on the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami (JUI-S) leader Maulana Hamidul Haq Haqqani at Darul Uloom Haqqani, a religious seminary in Akora Khattak. In a media statement, he cited the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra), which revealed that the suicide bomber was not a Pakistani national. He further noted significant progress in the investigation and assured disclosure of findings to the public in the near future. (“Madrassa bombing: IGP says probe enters crucial stage,” The News International, 5 March 2025)
Parachinar sit-in against road closure extends for the third day
On 4 March, the ongoing sit-in at the Parachinar Press Club reached its third consecutive day amid road closures. The locals staged demonstrations seeking the immediate reopening of the routes and the enforcement of security measures in the zone for safe public movement. An activist representing the protestors stated that 500,000 people are suffering from food shortages due to the border closure. The situation is further exacerbated as there have been previous road closures that lasted for five months. In a separate development, essential commodities were delivered by small and large vehicles to Parachinar, Ali Zai, and other areas. However, officials have banned the movement of fuel and gas tankers into the district. (Ali Afzal Afzaal, “Protests in Parachinar continue over road closure,” The News International, 5 March 2025)
Unidentified armed assailants set fire to LPG vehicles on Makran Highway
On 3 March, a “large group” of unidentified armed assailants blocked the Makola area of Makran Coastal Highway (N-10) in Gwadar and torched several vehicles, including LPG tankers. These tankers were on their way back to Iran after supplying gas to Karachi. Commenting on the incident, SSP Highway Police Hafeez Baloch said, “Seven vehicles were torched, including six gas tankers and a Highway Police vehicle.” Additionally, the assailants also attacked the Highway police, raided their checkpoint, and set fire to their official vehicle. This mayhem lasted for around three hours. Only when police forces from Pasni and Ormara rushed to the spot on being intimated did the attackers flee the highway. A search operation has been launched to nab the assailants, and security along the route has been upped. (Behram Baloch, “Armed men block Makran highway, torch vehicles,” Dawn, 5 March 2025)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan seek to expand bilateral collaboration
On 4 March, Kyrgyzstan’s Ambassador to Pakistan Avazbek Atakhanov called on Power Minister Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari. In their meeting, both sides discussed potential areas for strengthening bilateral ties while underscoring better energy cooperation. The power minister informed the ambassador about the current reforms in the power sector aimed at improving efficiency and sustainability which was appreciated by the latter. Sardar also invited Kyrgyz investors to explore investment opportunities in Pakistan’s energy sector and other projects. In his statement, the Ambassador expressed Kyrgyzstan’s willingness to collaborate in mutually beneficial areas and noted the importance of enhanced cooperation in energy and power infrastructure for economic growth and regional stability. (“Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan agree to expand collaboration,” The News International, 5 March 2025)
AF-PAK
On the closure of Torkham:
“The continued closure of the Pak-Afghan Torkham border could be seen as a manifestation of just how complicated our border with Afghanistan is,” argues an editorial in The News International
On 4 March, the Torkham border closure extended for the 12th consecutive day following clashes between Afghan and Pakistani security personnel. While there are no clear reports pertaining to casualties, both sides have suffered losses. The current situation remains tense, and the closure has impacted trade and commerce severely as millions of dollars in losses have been incurred by the national kitty and the local traders. It has also caused surrounding communities to vacate the area as both sides have deployed heavy artillery while targeting one another. This comes as tensions between the Pakistan and Afghan forces heightened after Afghan forces started constructing bunkers near the zero point. Despite several rounds of negotiations between Pakistani and Afghan officials, there has been no breakthrough as both sides play the blame game, making it difficult to arrive at a resolution.
On 5 March, an editorial titled “Border crisis,” in The News International indicated the underlying geopolitical complexities linked to the closure of the Torkham Border. The issue lies in more than just the construction of a bunker. In the wider geopolitical context, there are unresolved matters between both sides. Islamabad has frequently asked Afghanistan to keep a check on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, as it has become a breeding ground for terrorism. The Afghan sides’ failure to clamp down on the terror activities has raised concerns for Pakistan, which have also been validated by the UN Security Council. However, in spite of this, efforts at dialogue have been made. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, has sought direct negotiations with Kabul. However, this has not gone well with the federal government. The reason is that the foreign policy falls under the Foreign Office’s domain and the centre. Nevertheless, KP’s vulnerability to violence should not be discounted. It bears “most of the brunt of the Afghan Taliban’s refusal to crack down on terror.” Under such circumstances, there is a need for coordination between the central and provincial governments to engage with the Taliban government. A combined effort may be directed towards pressing the Afghan government to stop its territory from being used as a launchpad for militant attacks.
On the same day, another editorial titled “Torkham turbulence,” in The Express Tribune highlighted how Pakistan and Afghanistan have failed and how their unresolved matters have affected the region’s geo-economics. The underlying issues have magnified the reaction towards Afghanistan’s unilateral decision to build a checkpoint near the border without consulting Pakistan, which is necessary under the principle of reciprocity. The editorial lamented the eruption of clashes over such a “petty issue.” In this regard, it forecasted the renewal of a “crisis of confidence” which may call for “astute leadership” to return to normalcy. In its conclusion the editorial read: “This Torkham turbulence is now getting on the nerves, and is in need of a generous solution by flagging tribal conventions and cordiality.” (“Torkham border clashes continue, trade paralysed as talks fail,” The News International, 5 March 2025; “Border crisis,” The News International, 5 March 2025; “Torkham turbulence,” The Express Tribune, 5 March 2025)