Deadlock: Jirga talks over Torkham I
Pakistan’s Air Quality Ranking Responses
PR Explainer
Militancy, Security and Politics in Balochistan:
Evaluating the early responses to BLA's train hijacking
D Suba Chandran
On 13 March, according to the latest media reports, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General and Information Minister announced "the successful completion of the operation and the recovery of all hostages." (Dawn, 13 March 2025)
On 11 March 2025, the BLA targeted the Jaffer Express in Balochistan and took more than 400 passengers hostage. According to the media reports, 33 militants, 21 passengers and eight soldiers of Pakistan's paramilitary were killed in the rescue operation.
On the first day, the immediate response was shock and anger; on the second day, Pakistan has raised questions and also provided a road map on what needs to be done further in Balochistan. Though some of these responses are still early, they explain how Pakistan looks at issues relating to militancy, security and politics in Balochistan. Following is an evaluation of Pakistan's early reactions to what is happening in Balochistan.
Is the militancy in Balochistan fueled from outside, or internal?
An immediate reaction to problems within Pakistan – both in Balochistan and in KP has been to blame the "external" forces. Dawn quoted DG-ISPR Lt Gen Sharif saying: "These terrorists were in contact with their supporters and masterminds in Afghanistan during the operation via satellite phone…This incident changes the rules of the game, because these terrorists have no link to Balochistan or religion."
This has been the case for the last two decades. The immediate blame for violence in the province would be on Baloch militants as being provided sanctuary - previously by the elected Afghan government (led by Karzai and Ghani) and supported by the Americans and the Indians. Now, perhaps the Taliban regime and also the Indian intelligence agencies. Why would the Afghan Taliban support the Baloch insurgency? And is there an Indian collusion with the Taliban in Afghanistan on this? Pakistan needs to relook at blaming everything on Afghanistan and India for what is happening in Balochistan.
On the other hand, an editorial in The News ("Terror's long night," The News International, 13 March 2025) identifies internal issues as the root causes of the problem in Balochistan. The editorial reads: "Balochistan, along with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has been the primary victim of terrorism in recent years. However, the challenges in the province are unique, stemming from political alienation, economic exploitation and human rights violations. The missing persons crisis has fueled resentment, the unequal distribution of resources has deepened economic disparities, and political disenfranchisement has only widened the gap between the people and the state." Dawn, in its editorial ("Shocking ambush," Dawn, 13 March 2025), makes a point. It says: "Beyond kinetic actions, there must be sincere efforts to address the root causes of Balochistan's misery that are exploited by separatists. These include enforced disappearances, the province's appalling socioeconomic indicators, and curbs on political activity. While no cause can justify atrocities that target civilians, many voices — including this paper's — have been raising these issues for years. But those who make and execute policies in this country are not listening."
Above is the question that Pakistan has to find answers to. What has led to the political alienation of the people, economic exploitation of the province, and the abuse of human rights by the State? Were they internal, or supported by external factors? Blaming external actors for violence in KP and Balochistan has not helped Pakistan so far, and is less likely to do so in the future.
Is the problem of violence in Balochistan linked to a lack of Baloch political representation? Did the political engagement curb militancy before?
There is violence perpetrated by the BLA and other militant groups. And there are root causes. The first is a security problem, while the second is a complex mix of political, economic and social. The security forces are best placed to address the first, but they cannot and should not address the second. The polity and society should pursue it.
The News editorial ("Terror's long night," The News International, 13 March 2025), makes an interesting comparison with developments in Balochistan during the last decades. It reads: "The ongoing insurgency is not simply a law-and-order problem but a symptom of these deeper structural issues. There was a time when political engagement helped curb violence. In 2013, when the PML-N appointed nationalist leader Dr Abdul Malik Baloch as Balochistan's chief minister, insurgency levels saw a significant decline. That period offered a glimpse of what genuine representation and dialogue could achieve. However, with nationalist leaders sidelined and disillusioned, the space for political reconciliation has shrunk, creating a vacuum that militant groups have readily filled."
The argument is straightforward. When there was a political engagement, there was a decline in militancy. Data would support the above argument. Political machinations during the previous elections and what happened to the provincial assembly should underline the above case. The 2018 elections, in particular – at the national and provincial levels in Balochistan should highlight what went wrong. In the 2018 Baloch provincial elections, the newly formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party with 24 seats, followed by the MMA and the PTI with ten and seven seats. Leading Baloch (and Pashtun) parties such as the NP, BNP and PkMAP became (or made) irrelevant. The formation of BAP just before the elections and its win would underline the primary problem in Balochistan.
Have the "big-ticket" projects failed to address the economic situation? Have they made the situation worse?
The Express Tribune, in its editorial, ("The Mashkaf Moment," The Express Tribune, 13 March 2025), says: "Big-ticket projects, such as CPEC, have made little impact, and are in the eye of the storm as terrorists have regrouped and are gaining currency."
The CPEC projects in Balochistan were expected to uplift the local population. In Gwadar alone, there are multiple projects, including the Gwadar Port. Gwadar Free Zone, Gwadar International Airport, Gwadar Coal Power Plant, and Gwadar Expressway. Have they changed the economic situation for the local population?
The CPEC projects were sold to the local people as game changers. The same way the Sui gas plant was sold in the 1950s. There were promises of local employment, royalties, revenue, local supply etc. In the long run, the local population feel that the resources are being exploited by the outsiders for the benefit of other provinces. This is one of the reasons behind the attack on CPEC projects by the militants and also the targeted attack on migrant workers from other provinces.
Does the answer lie in more security or a democratic process?
Dawn's Dawn, in its editorial ("Shocking ambush," Dawn, 13 March 2025), argues: "Security and the rule of law are essential. Lasting peace in Balochistan, however, can only come when there is good governance, the province's people have a share in its mineral wealth and other resources, and the genuine representatives of the inhabitants are allowed to take the democratic process forward."
Security is important. The immediate response will have to be aimed at enforcing the writ of the state. The militants cannot be allowed to hijack buses and trains and take hostage of civilians. The security forces – starting from the local police, paramilitary and the military have to play a role – in that order. The primary responsibility of provincial security should be with the local police.
What is more important is the democratic process and decisions by political representatives. Balochistan needs a democratic process; the province has enough political parties representing the Baloch grievances. They should be allowed to grow at the grassroots and reach Quetta and not engineered in Islamabad (worse in Rawalpindi).
Also Read: D Suba Chandran, "Militants hijack a train in Balochistan: Where, Who and Why," Pakistan Reader, 12 March 2025
In Focus
Second Day: Updates and Responses to BLA’s Train Hijack in Balochistan
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Hijack of Jaffar Express in Balochistan comes to an end
On 12 March, the military announced that the hijack of the Jaffar Express has come to an end. Information Minister Atta Tarar, in a separate communique, informed about the “successful completion” of the rescue “operation” as all held hostages have also been rescued. The Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG-ISPR) Lt General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry informed that a total number of 33 militants have been neutralized in the operation. He, however, did not mention the exact number of hostages held who have been saved. Further, he informed about the contribution from the “army, air force, Frontier Corps and SSG personnel” in the rescue operation. He also highlighted the difficulty in reaching the hijack spot, which was far from “road networks.” He claimed that the militants had used “children and women” as “human shields.”
Response from Balochistan Chief Minister
Onthe same day, CM of Balochistan, Sarfaraz Bugti stressed on the requirement to initiate “coordination actions” for combating the security situation in the province. He warned that the state would violently crush those who take up arms and indulge in violence. Further, he also expressed that the government is keen on having a dialogue. He said “targeting unarmed people is not part of Baloch tradition.” However, he also mentioned that the people who have taken up arms are fighting for the separation of Balochistan and not for obtaining “rights” or end “deprivation.” He vowed that anyone who demands for separation of Balochistan or takes up arms against the state will be neutralized. Further, he informed about the upcoming visit of PM Shehbaz Sharif to Balochistan. The Chief Minister will also be pushing the Prime Minister to convene a jirga which would look into the problem.
ISPR and federal government target Indian media and PTI for spreading misinformation
DG-ISPR claimed there was a wave of misinformation which was propagated from India. He said, “this openly displayed the nexus between the terrorists and their masters to the whole world.” He also claimed that some of the political parties in Pakistan were indulged in spreading misinformation. On this, he commented: “Sadly, some elements are sacrificing the national interest due to their lust for political power.” He was also joined by Information and Broadcasting Minister Ataullah Tarar in alleging that Indian media is spreading misinformation about the hijack. Further, targeting the opposition political parties in Pakistan, he stated, “Language of some opposition leaders was the same as that used by the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army and Indian media.”Specifically he targeted PTI and claimed that the party has taken the same position as that of India and BLA. He alleged that BLA, Indian media, and PTI are promoting a “coordinated narrative” about the hijack from which it could be understood that they are attempting to use the attack for their “own political gain.”
PTI on government’s silence in the National Assembly
PTI leader Omar Ayub Khan denounced the manner in which the government approached the hijack crisis. He called out the government for not holding “a debate” on the Jaffar Express hijack. He said, “Balochistan is burning and the government is doing business as usual.” However, the PTI leader also did not speak in length about the hijack. The main focus of his speech was on how the government is targeting the opposition members and the imprisonment of Imran Khan. He claimed the job of “13 intelligence agencies” present in the country is to attack the opposition. He pointed out how the provincial government of Balochistan only emphasized targeting opposition leaders such as Mahmood Achakzai, Akhtar Mengal, and Mahrang Baloch. It however, remains unsuccessful in taking action against the militants. On the other hand, the government was reluctant to comment on the hijack in the National Assembly. As per Dawn, not even one minister from the federal cabinet spoke about a “policy statement” on the attack.
Media Responses
On 13 March, an editorial in Dawn titled “Shocking ambush,” discussed the need for a comprehensive “security plan” in Balochistan. The editorial noted that the recent hijack is not an isolated incident and reminded the readers that previously in 2024, a suicide attack took place at Quetta railway station. The target was Jaffar Express at that time as well. The editorial highlighted how, despite the security forces launching numerous counter-terrorism operations, Balochistan still suffers from instability. The editorial demanded “no-go areas and ungoverned spaces” should be brought to an end as these places serve as the breeding ground for the terrorists. The editorial also urged that Pakistan must raise the issue with Afghanistan, given that it alleges that the latter has given refuge to those who orchestrated the attack. Apart from military actions, the editorial also called on the government to pay heed to the grievances of the people of Balochistan.
On 13 March, an editorial in The News International titled “Terror’s long night,” discussed the need to address the grievances of the people of Balochistan. The editorial highlighted problems such as the breaching of human rights and “economic exploitation” that fuel the grievances of the people of Balochistan. Further, the problem of enforced disappearances aggravates the dissatisfaction of the Baloch people with the federal government. Despite that, the editorial strongly advocated against taking up arms and actions by the BLA. The editorial highlighted how the hijacking incident further overshadows the case put up by the people of Balochistan for addressing their grievances. The editorial reminded the government that it cannot only pursue a heavy-handed approach. The editorial further claimed that the people of Balochistan should separate themselves from the BLA and look for better representatives.
On 13 March, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled “The Mashkaf moment” appreciated the efforts put in by security forces in successfully rescuing the hostages despite several challenges. The editorial highlighted how difficult it was for the security forces to save the hostages as the latter were being used as “human shields” by the terrorists. The editorial also highlighted how mega projects like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor in Balochistan has further aggravated the resentment of Baloch people. The editorial called for a “grand dialogue” where the government could pay heed to the grievances of the Baloch people.
References
Syed Irfan Raza & Saleem Shahid, “Balochistan standoff ends after all Jaffar Express hostages rescued,” Dawn, 13 March 2025
“Armed groups not ready to talk will face state’s wrath: Bugti,” Dawn, 13 March 2025
“Targeting unarmed people not part of Baloch traditions: Balochistan CM,” The Express Tribune, 12 March 2025
“Tarar calls out propaganda by Indian media over Jaffar Express attack,” The Express Tribune, 12 March 2025
Amir Wasim, “Govt maintains eerie silence in NA over train hijacking,” Dawn, 13 March 2025
“Shocking ambush,” Dawn, 13 March 2025; “Terror’s long night,” The News International, 13 March 2025
“The Mashkaf moment,” The Express Tribune, 13 March 2025
In Brief
POLITICS
Nawaz Sharif blames PTI’s stubbornness for failure of dialogue
On 12 March, during a meeting with National Assembly speaker Ayaz Sadiq, Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) President Nawaz Sharif blamed the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) “lack of seriousness” and inflexibility for the breakdown of government-opposition dialogue. He indirectly referred to the PTI, stating that the masses were “not interested in protests and sloganeering,” instead, they sought a resolution to their pressing issues. These statements come a month after the PTI leveled accusations against the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)’s of non-compliance with its demands. These demands had included the constitution of a judicial commission to probe into the incidents of 9 May and 26 November. (Zulqernain Tahir, “Nawaz blames ‘stubbornness’ of PTI for failure of negotiations,” Dawn, 13 March 2025)
ECONOMY
IMF may waiver delays in agricultural tax collection, reports The News
On 12 March, top officials reported by The News International alluded to the possible waiver by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the delay of Agriculture Income Tax (AIT) collection by provinces. This is indicated by Fund’s inquiry on the provincial revenue authorities’ readiness to collect AIT from 1 July 2025. Furthermore, at a recent workshop with the World Bank, the Bank was tasked with providing a roadmap for the collection of AIT, effective from 1 July 2025. On the other hand, the Fund also asked provinces to convert the collection of Goods and Service Tax on services from positive to negative list from the upcoming fiscal year of 2025-2026. In response, the provinces notified that the above instruction would be implemented under the National Tax Council. However, approval will have to be sought from regional cabinets and legislative assemblies, which will transpire during the 2025-2026 budget discussion. (Mehtab Haider, “$7bn bailout review approval: IMF likely to retrospectively endorse delay in agriculture tax collection,” The News International, 13 March 2025)
On sugar cartel and inflated prices:
“The government must take decisive action against those responsible for artificial shortages and price manipulation,” argues an editorial in The News International
On 13 March, an editorial titled “Dear Sugar,” in The News International, discussed the inflated prices of sugar in Pakistan’s domestic markets. With this, the government has found itself in a tussle with the sugar industry yet again. Subsidized rates on the commodity are not reflected in open markets as major cities have witnessed a rise of PKR 160-170 per kilogram before Ramzan, when the demand for it rises significantly. Karachi saw its “steepest jump” from PKR 145 to PKR 180 per kilogram. Industry insiders have claimed that this surge in price is due to the government’s approval of sugar exports. This approval has made it possible for wholesalers and other vested interests to capitalize on it and create an artificial scarcity by hoarding supplies and selling sugar at exorbitant rates. However, this would not have happened if the government had challenged sugar cartels with deep political affiliations that allow them to control the mechanisms of demand and supply. Instead of going head-on, the government has sought to import raw sugar. This move highlights an irony: “Pakistan exports sugar only to import it back at inflated rates, burdening the economy and consumers alike.” The editorial deemed this illogical and also linked it to the flawed governance that allows the crisis to perpetuate. (“Dear Sugar,” The News International, 13 March 2025)
ENVIRONMENT AND WATER
On Pakistan’s Air Quality Index ranking:
“What Pakistan needs is a national clean air policy that matches the scale of the crisis,” argues an editorial in Dawn
On 13 March, an editorial titled “Suffocating crisis” in Dawn highlighted the challenges faced by the country in light of the recent World Air Quality Report published by IQAir and the need for policy intervention. Pakistan has been ranked among the three most air-polluted countries in the world with its “annual average concentration of PM2.5 stands at a staggering 73.7 micrograms per cubic metre.” This is a serious issue as air quality levels are nearly 15 times worse than the acceptable levels. The editorial has attributed this to emissions from industries, vehicles, agriculture stubble burning, and even Diwali celebrations in India as a form of cross-border contributor. The editorial lamented that the government has struggled to control such activities due to policy incoherence. Weak efforts are made to monitor brick kilns while public cleaner transport initiatives continue to be underfunded. In this regard, Pakistan requires “a national clean air policy that matches the scale of the crisis.” For starters, it could begin by declaring an air pollution emergency. This can be followed by the creation of a regulatory body. Additionally, the market mechanisms can be veered to “accelerate the adoption of cleaner technologies, complemented by stricter emissions standards,” and stubble burning alternatives should be introduced in the farm sector, like waste-to-energy programmes.
On the same day, an editorial titled “Appalling air quality” in The Express Tribune discussed the same issue of air pollution concisely. It argued that Pakistan seems to have slid backwards even as cities and countries around the world have shown improvements in air quality. The government policies have been unable to suppress the primary contributors of pollution, while other “poor countries” have been able to phase out industrial, vehicular, and biomass emissions. In this regard, the editorial emphasized a shift in “trajectory” where citizens, industries, and the government could collaborate to restore clean air. (“Suffocating crisis,” Dawn, 13 March 2025; “Appalling air quality,” The Express Tribune, 13 March 2025)
On IRSA’s Six Canal project decision:
There is a need to “strengthen national cohesion, improve governance and ensure the equitable management of common resources with sequential benefits,” argues an opinion in The News International
On 13 March, in an opinion titled “Water, power and politics,” in The News International, Syed Mohibullah Shah provided a five-point recommendation on inter-provincial water distribution. The author began by denouncing the Indus River System Authority’s decision to approve the Six Canals Project as it violates the 1991 Accord. The 1991 Water Accord is an agreement between four provinces to determine the distribution of water from the Indus River. It was ratified by the Council of Common Interests (CCI), which was solely created to monitor water sharing between the provinces. Even though the CCI is an independent organization, in recent times, it seems to function as a “product of the government.” Since its inception, the CCI has not been “treated well.” The council has held only 11 meetings between 1973 and 2010, and this pattern has continued despite making it mandatory to hold meetings every 90 days. Hence, such inertia has allowed the IRSA to circumvent its authority and approve the Canal project ahead of the CCI. This has, however, not been received well among the people of Sindh, as it struggles with water scarcity and a booming population. A UN Report on Water Development has warned of a water scarcity by 2050, which will affect 3.2 billion people. Despite this, the IRSA’s decision to divert water from the lower riparian areas to upstream “signals a grim future.” In this context, the author highlighted two key structural issues, namely, the IRSA’s incapacity to function as an “equitable manager of a common resource” and the CCI’s inactivity. In this regard, the author extended five suggestions. The first is engaging an international agency to conduct a study of how much water ought to reach the sea via the Indus to prevent rising sea levels from flooding land and settlements. Second, adoption of a corporate type model, where ultimate beneficiaries like shareholders would determine the management of common resources. Furthermore, the IRSA’s chair must be the last riparian in order to ensure equitable justice. The third suggestion calls for the establishment of an Indus Water Tribunal to provide redressal to provincial grievances linked to the IRSA’s decision. The last two suggestions are related to the CCI, proposing the council to be made more judicious and democratic by appointing members from provinces and addressing the council’s failure to meet its constitutional requirements immediately. (Syed Mohibullah Shah, “Water, power and politics,” The News International, 13 March 2025)
AF-PAK
Jirga talks over Torkham at a deadlock
On 13 March, according to official sources reported by The News International, negotiations between the Afghan and Pakistani jirgas regarding the reopening of the Torkham border have collapsed. Allegedly, the Afghan side exited the talks due to the latter’s unserious approach towards the matter. These talks were initiated amid a suspension of all activities at the Torkham crossing due to clashes between the Afghan and Pakistani security forces. Tensions had arisen after Pakistan had denounced the Afghan forces’ construction activities at the zero-point zone. To address the issue, jirgas from both countries negotiated for four days. An upcoming meeting would have determined the next move towards resolving their territorial disputes and reopening the border after the jirgas mutually agreed upon a ceasefire and dialogue in the previous meeting. The reason cited by the Afghan delegation for walking out of the talks is the expansion of Pakistan’s delegation without prior notice. The list of members attending the meeting was increased from 17 to 50. (Afshafruddin Pirzada, “Torkham stalemate: Talks between jirgas to resolve issue fizzle out,” The News International, 13 March 2025)
INDIA VIEW
Ban of two more parties in J&K is deplorable: Foreign Office
On 12 March, Pakistan opposed India’s decision to label two organizations in the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as “unlawful associations.” Citing The Hindu, Dawn reported that India’s Ministry of Home Affairs has decided to declare the Jammu and Kashmir Awami Action Committee (AAC) and the Jammu and Kashmir Ittehadul Muslimeen (JKIM) unlawful for the next five years. A Foreign Office (FO) statement from Pakistan also referenced the Indian government’s decision to ban political parties last year, bringing the total ban on J&K parties to 14. The recent decision further increases the number of banned associations in J&K to 16. The FO said: “Banning of different political parties and organizations is yet another manifestation of the Indian authorities’ iron-fisted approach in the IIOJK [Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir].” (“FO deplores India’s ban on two more parties in held Kashmir,” Dawn, 13 March 2025)
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Imran Khan is a facilitator of terrorists.
- PMLN
India and PTI are two sides of the same coin, enemies of Pakistan's progress and stability. Both exploit Pakistan's difficulties for their own interests.
- PMLN
The government is busy creating a false narrative against a political party that the PTI is an enemy of the country - terrorism is rising in the country, the government should deal with it seriously but is not able to do so
Mehr Bano Qureshi
- PTI
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