Pakistan-IMF Staff Level Agreement I CII calls Supreme Court's polygamy case verdict "un-Islamic"
In Focus
Arrest of Dr Mahrang Baloch and BYC leaders: “Protest rallies” and “sit-ins” rock Balochistan demanding their release
On 26 March, various “protest rallies” and “sit-ins” were staged in different cities and towns of Balochistan at the behest of the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) protesting against the earlier arrest of Dr Mahrang Baloch, Sammi Deen Baloch, Bebow Baloch and other Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) leaders. From gathering of protestors outside the Quetta Press Club to protest rallies in Panjgur and Nushki, workers and supporters of the BNP-M demonstrated against the government crackdown against these protests. Outside the Quetta Press Club, incumbent president of BNP-M Sajid Tareen and other leaders, including provincial President of ANP Asghar Achakzai and National Party Democratic provincial president Muhammad Jan “addressed the protestors.” They alleged that the province has been “subjected to oppression and coercion” from the start and even at this juncture, the people were being denied their constitutional right to protest peacefully. They also alleged that people across the province were protesting while their voices were being stifled and that women were being subjected to violence.
Additionally, in a rally in Surab, “a large number of children, elderly people, and women also participated.” The major demand is the release of Dr Mahrang Baloch and other arrested BYC leaders. The protestors, however, have also raised slogans criticizing the provincial government. Separately, Mahrang Baloch’s sisters have alleged that she is being mentally tortured in detention and can be subjected to “harm” while in jail. Further, Iqra Baloch, Nadia Baloch, and Advocate Imran Baloch informed that “between 115 and 125 individuals have been arrested and are being held in various police stations and jails,” however, officially this number stands at 48. They also claimed that those arrested and still being detained despite the grant of bails. In this regard, the Advocate General alleged that the arrests had been made under the Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance (MPO). The BNP-M has also called for a “long march from Wadh to Quetta on 28 March.”
On the same day, responding to external criticism against the aforementioned arrests, the Foreign Office (FO) categorically remarked that “the measures undertaken by the government [in Balochistan] are fully consistent with the international law, which categorically prohibits incitement to violence and terrorism. There can be no tolerance, let alone impunity, for terrorists, their facilitators, or their abettors.” The FO, however, did not make any references to Dr Mahrang Baloch or the BYC in its statement. The FO was responding to a statement of the office of the High Commissioner of the United Nations Human Rights in Geneva where some “UN experts” while condoling the Jaffer Express attack had also called for the release of those detained, terming them “Baloch human rights defenders” and urged the government to end its crackdown against peaceful protests. This press release by the UN experts had noted that “We have been monitoring with growing concern reports of alleged arrests and enforced disappearances of Baloch activists over the past number of months, and the violent incidents in the past few days have significantly increased our concerns.”
Separately, a meeting with the IT department and network providers highlighted the need to regulate internet services terming it “inevitable.” He said this while pointing out the use of social media by “anti-state elements” to “negatively influence the minds of the youth.” He also noted the need to steer minds in a “positive direction” and use the IT sector to “improve governance.
References
Saleem Shahid, “BNP-M demands release of Mahrang, other BYC leaders,” Dawn, 27 March 2025
Mohammad Zafar Baloch, “BNP holds protests, demands Mahrang’s release,” The News International, 27 March 2025
Mariana Baabar, “Pakistan rejects criticism of UN HR experts,” The News International, 27 March 2025
Mohammad Zafar Baloch, “Regulating internet in Balochistan has become inevitable’,” The News International, 27 March 2025
In Brief
ECONOMY
Pakistan arrives at a Staff Level Agreement with the IMF
On 26 March, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it has come to a Staff Level Agreement (SLA) with Pakistan wherein they have agreed to reduce electricity tariffs, increase water bills, introduce a carbon levy, and liberalize the automobile sector for global trade. These measures will be implemented from July 2025. An official notification from the IMF highlighted an SLA on the first review under the Extended Facility Fund (EFF) and the approval of a USD 1.3 billion Resilience Sustainability Facility (RSF) for 28 months. The Pakistani authorities have expressed commitment to maintaining a fiscal consolidation by reducing public debt, maintaining a tight monetary policy, lowering inflation levels, and advancing cost-efficient energy sector reforms among others. The Resilience Fund will help Pakistan build security against natural disasters, enhance funding for climate adaptation, improve efficient usage of water, strengthen climate risk management, and align energy sectors with climate goals. Now the agreement awaits approval from the Executive Board to release the second tranche of USD one billion under the EFF. Hence, the total disbursement from the IMF to Pakistan will amount to USD 2.3 billion by the first week of May, ahead of the 2025-2026 budget session.
On the same day, in an analysis titled “Analysis: IMF deal sealed — is growth next?,” in The News International, Ammar Habib Khan deemed the upcoming disbursements as a departure from the “close-to-default scenario” in the last 18 months. He argued that the country can now assume a shift in its priorities from macroeconomic stability to growth. The author expressed a positive outlook on the continuation of the programme. He argued that it will assist in unlocking external sources of funding that can be used for export-driven growth instead of consumption. Hope can also be pinned on the RSF as it will address Pakistan’s vulnerabilities to natural disasters and enable sustainable development. By treading the low-growth path constituting investments and exports, the country may eventually avoid the IMF programme in the future. A “high-growth spurt based on borrowed capital, only to fizzle out in a matter of few quarters” will not yield favorable consequences. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Carbon levy on the cards after IMF funding secured,” Dawn, 27 March 2025; Mehtab Haider & Muhammad Anis, “IMF team due in May to finalize FY26 budget,” The News International, 27 March 2025; Ammar Habib Khan, “Analysis: IMF deal sealed — is growth next?” The News International, 27 March 2025)
GDP in Q2 jumps to 1.73 per cent
On 27 March, according to The News International, Pakistan’s GDP was recorded at 1.73 per cent during the second quarter of the current fiscal. The growth is attributed to advancements in the services and livestock sectors. Growth in the service sector is due to an increase in government expenditures and not creation of employment. In the livestock sector, the number of livestock rose reflecting a growth of 6.4 per cent in the second quarter. Usually, it is at four per cent. To meet the International Monetary Fund’s conditions, the government arrived at a provision GDP growth of 1.73 per cent during the second quarter while it lags behind its 3.6 per cent annual fiscal target of 2024-2025. This decision was made at a meeting of the National Accounts Committee of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The projected estimates were made due to positive growth of 1.10 per cent and 2.57 per cent in agriculture and services, respectively. Improvement was seen in public sector education, human health and social work, and other private services. However, a decline was measured in the major crops industry of the agriculture and industrial sectors. Important production of crops like rice, cotton, and maize showed a negative growth of -7.65 per cent in Q2. Industrial growth stood at a negative 0.18 per cent in the current Q2 compared to the same period last year. Wholesale and retail trade were at -1.13 per cent growth due to a decline in outputs from the large-scale manufacturing industry and imports. Nevertheless, significant growth was recorded in the information and communication sector along with the finance and insurance industry, among others. (Mehtab Haider, “Second quarter GDP growth reaches 1.73 per cent,” The News International, 27 March 2025; Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Economic growth almost steady in second quarter,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
On the economic progress after receiving assistance from the IMF:
“Hard-won macroeconomic stability is only a short distance away from a deeper crisis” says an editorial in Dawn
On 27 March, an editorial in Dawn titled “Some progress,” discussed the state of the economy in Pakistan after it received assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The editorial cites remarks from the IMF mission chief in which he praised Pakistan for displaying “significant progress” in bringing back “macroeconomic stability” in spite of a difficult “global environment.” The editorial, however, is skeptical that the same should be considered as an indication of a “long-term recovery.” As per the editorial, a “deeper crisis” still looms despite the stability observed in macroeconomic indicators. The editorial points out how assistance from the IMF does provide temporary relief to the economy. However, in the long run, the economy debacles due to the urgency for “rapid growth.” The editorial suggests that the government must put in efforts to enhance “public finances” and make sure that the prices of commodities remain stable. The editorial points out how the IMF was unhappy with the government not being able to increase the “tax base” and how it reduced property taxes and electricity prices. The editorial highlights the need to not deviate from a “reform agenda” especially considering the possibility of “geopolitical shocks” that could impact “commodity prices.”
(“Some progress,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT & WATER
Pakistan likely to face water supply shortage during April to June, says Indus River System Authority
On 26 March, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) cautioned that the country is likely to witness a “shortfall” in water supply by 43 per cent in the coming month of April. The shortfall in water supply is expected at a time when farmers are preparing to harvest their crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane. Punjab and Sindh which contribute the most to agricultural produce in the country are likely to see critical “irrigation shortages.” As per some officials, the water level in some of Pakistan’s main water reservoirs has come down to “dead levels.” This is a serious concern which could impact “agricultural output.” As per the Water and Power Development Authority, “Tarbela and Chashma reservoirs” do not have any “usable live water storage.” One of the dams which is holding a little more water than its dead level is Mangla reservoir. As per the Pakistan Meteorological Department, snow “catchments” in the Indus and Jhelum came down by 31 per cent. It is anticipated that the period between April to June will see a decrease from the normal rate of rainfall and a surge in average temperatures. This would likely lead to irrigation shortages. (Israr Khan, “Irsa warns of 43% water shortfall in April,” The News International, 27 March 2025)
Rice production to decline due to shortfall in water supply
On 26 March, The Express Tribune reported that the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Punjab has sent out an “alert” which delineates preventive steps needed for addressing the possibility of “drought conditions” due to a decrease in rainfall. The alert has been sent to “commissioners, deputy commissioners” and concerned departments in Punjab. As per the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Punjab saw 38 per cent less rainfall during the winters. PDMA has cautioned that a decrease in rainfall could severely impact “Rabi season crops.” This would add to the distress of farmers who would incur losses because of a lowered rice production. PDMA’s Director General informed that measures have been taken to deal with the shortfall in water supply in Thal and Cholistan. Further, he informed that the “school education department” would take part in “awareness campaigns.” (“Water scarcity threatens Punjab’s Rabi crops, rice production,” The Express Tribune, 26 March 2025)
Government reconsiders its solar metering policy amid criticism from consumers and traders
On 27 March, Dawn reported on the government’s decision to reconsider its “solar net metering policy” which has received intense criticism from consumers and traders after it was announced that “buyback rates” would be set at PKR 10 which was earlier proposed to be PKR 27. On 26 March, a cabinet meeting presided by PM Shehbaz Sharif took place. The cabinet decided to include suggestions from all “stakeholders” regarding its solar metering policy. The federal government has affirmed its resolve to encourage the use of “renewable energy.” PM Sharif instructed the concerned officers to look into the “confusion” related to the solar metering policy. He said: “There is no change in the government’s solar energy policy and priority.” According to changes that received approval from the Economic Coordination Committee, power firms would buy “solar electricity” at the rate of PKR 10 per unit “from consumers.” Power firms would sell “grid electricity” at the rate of PKR 42 per unit in off-seasons and PKR 48 per unit in “peak” seasons. This does not include tax and duties. Also, consumers would not be permitted to “install solar capacity” which surpasses their “sanctioned load.” This includes a 10 per cent exemption, which as per the earlier policy was set at 50 per cent. (Syed Irfan Raza, “Govt has second thoughts on changes to solar policy,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
SOCIETY
CII declares SC verdict in polygamy case “un-Islamic”
On 27 March, Dawn reported on a Council of Islamic Ideology (CII)’s divergence of opinion from the Supreme Court’s (SC) polygamy verdict during its 241st meeting between 25 and 26 March. It said: “It is un-Islamic to grant the first wife the right to annul the marriage as a result of solemnizing a second marriage without her permission.” In the SC’s 23 October 2024 decision, a husband had entered a second marriage without his former wife’s permission which resulted in violation of the Muslim Family Laws Ordinance 1961. In response, the first wife sought an annulment from the marriage based on this violation. The apex court later upheld it as the violation served as grounds for dissolving a marriage. Under ordinary circumstances, two options exist for dissolving an alliance i.e. khula and talaq. The CII observed males do not require permission from their spouse for a second marriage and subsequent marriages under the Sharia. It noted how the 1961 Law contradicted the Sharia, making it an “un-Islamic” practice. The CII said: “Any such court’s decision which gives the right to a woman to cancel her marriage is against Shariat.” (Kalbe Ali, “Council of Islamic Ideology comes out against SC verdict in polygamy case,” Dawn, 27 March 2025; “Giving woman right to annul marriage against Shariah, says CII,” The News International, 27 March 2025)
MEDIA
Journalist Waheed Murad detained by Federal Investigation Agency for sharing posts related to Balochistan Liberation Army
On 26 March, Waheed Murad was detained by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA). The court has permitted the FIA to keep Murad under custody for two days. Murad is presently engaged in an International media department and has previously worked for several “print and electronic media” houses. The FIA accused Murad of posting “highly intimidating content” on “Facebook and X.” As per the FIR lodged by FIA, Murad provoked “hatred against institutions” and government members. Officials from FIA allege that Murad was found to share posts related to the Balochistan Liberation Army. They further informed that Murad’s social media accounts and his cell phone have to be scrutinized. Reportedly, law enforcement officers forcefully barged into his house to arrest him. As per Murad, the law enforcement officers had attacked his mother-in-law as well. Murad’s lawyers have dismissed the accusations put forward by FIA. (Shakeel Anjum, “Another journalist arrested under Peca,” The News International, 27 March 2025)
SECURITY
Five people killed by armed men on Gwadar highway
On 26 March, at least five people were killed by an armed group on the main highway of Gwadar. Many heavy vehicles loaded with goods, including three body trailers carrying urea from Afghanistan and the Gwadar port, were torched by the group that blocked the highway. The roads to Turbat, Panjgur, Pasni, Bolan, Kolpur, and Mastung were blocked. A levies personnel’s vehicle was also set on fire in the Mastung area as they arrived to clear the roads blocked by militants. In a separate development, four people were killed in Kalmat after they were offloaded from a passenger bus traveling to Karachi. An official from the local administration said: “Armed men killed four passengers after checking their ID cards and took away three others.” The four killed were from Punjab. Additionally, reports of late-night attacks on a security forces post in Turbat have emerged. While the incidence of the event hasn’t been confirmed, heavy fire exchanges and explosions were heard in Turbat town. (Saleem Shahid, “Several killed, vehicles torched in Balochistan,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
AF-PAK
Amnesty voices concerns against the government’s plan to forcefully repatriate Afghan refugees
On 27 March, Dawn reported on Amnesty International voicing concerns against Pakistan’s plan to repatriate Afghan refugees after the deadline of 31 March. As per Amnesty International, forceful repatriation would further aggravate the distress of Afghan refugees. A statement from Amnesty said, “Pakistani government’s unyielding and cruel deadline shows little respect for international human rights law, particularly the principle of non-refoulement.” The regional director for South Asia at Amnesty International stated that it was unfair to label Afghan refugees as “menace” for Pakistani cities like Islamabad and Rawalpindi. She said: “Government of Pakistan is only making a scapegoat of a community that has been fleeing prosecution.” A human rights lawyer pointed out how devastating it was for families that have been instructed by the government to “relocate” within Pakistan. Another lawyer claimed that the deadline issued by the government for repatriation is “an executive instruction.” On another note, the International Organization for Migration has stated that “returns and deportations” of refugees hailing from Afghanistan have come down in the first 14 days of March. The number of returns had come down by 67 per cent whereas deportation numbers had decreased by 50 per cent in the first 14 days of March when compared to the last 13 days of February. (Amin Ahmed, “Amnesty urges Pakistan not to expel Afghans,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
CHINA & CPEC
China and Pakistan talks on security arrangements for Chinese citizens underway says Pakistan envoy to Beijing
On 26 March, Pakistan’s envoy to China Ambassador Khalil Hashmi informed that the two countries are discussing the security arrangements required for the safety of the Chinese citizens working in Pakistan. Chinese citizens working in Pakistan have witnessed a surge in attacks from proscribed organizations who allege that China is assisting Pakistan in unearthing minerals from the impoverished province of Balochistan. Hashmi acknowledged that the safety of Chinese citizens working in Pakistan is the latter’s “national responsibility” and that it is taking all possible measures. China has been urging Pakistan for allowing to send its security officials for the safety of its citizens working in Pakistan. China’s demand for sending its security officials came after the Karachi airport assault where two engineers from China lost their lives. (“Talks on security of Chinese ongoing, says envoy to Beijing,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
US blacklists close to 80 firms, mostly Chinese, for allegedly indulging in activities detrimental to its interests
On 25 March, Dawn reported on the blacklisting of firms by the US on charges of indulging in “activities contrary to US national security and foreign policy.” The blacklisting would hurt close to 80 firms which have their bases in China, Taiwan, Pakistan, UAE, Iran and South Africa. More than 50 of the firms blacklisted are headquartered in China. The firms which are blacklisted would not be allowed to procure items from the US except if they have authorization from the government. China criticized the embargo put upon its firms and alleged that the US “weaponizing trade and technology” showcases its “hegemonism.” The spokesperson of China’s Foreign Ministry informed that it would take all the necessary steps to protect the “rights and interests” of Chinese firms. The Chinese embassy in the US criticized the blacklisting measures taken by the US and called for putting an end to “using miliary-related issues as pretexts to politicize, instrumentalize and weaponize trade and tech issues.” As per an official from the US Commerce Department, the US government does not want its “technologies and goods” to be utilized for “high-performance computing, hypersonic missiles, military aircraft training and UAVs,” which could be a possible threat to the security interests of the US. (“Pakistani entities linked to China face US curbs,” Dawn, 27 March 2025)
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Pakistan is not the name of any Asim Munir, Shahbaz Sharif, Imran Khan or Asif Zardari, Pakistan was created with the blood of martyrs for the sake of ideology. A system of justice and fairness should be established in Pakistan based on Islam.
Naeem-ur-Rehman
- Jamaat e Islami Pakistan
Imran Khan has been unjustly imprisoned for 600 days. Imran Khan neither made a deal nor feigned illness. Perhaps that is why the regime and its cronies have suffered the biggest blow that Imran Khan has proven them wrong once again..!!
- Tehreek-e-Insaf
Nothing is final in politics. Politicians should not go behind closed doors. If they are asked to sit together on issues that are beyond political interests, they should move forward. There are many PTI leaders who do not want chaotic politics at all and want to leave this party.
- PMLN
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"Pakistan faces reductions in aid across education, healthcare & infrastructure."
An opinion in Dawn, 'New world order.’
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