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In Focus
Balochistan: The government warning to BNP-M and the breakdown in negotiations
Rohini Reenum
What happened?
On 6 April, the Balochistan government notified Balochistan National Party (BNP-M) head Sardar Akhtar Mengal that if he moved the ongoing sit-in towards Quetta, he would be arrested under the Maintenance of Public Order (MPO). This announcement was made on X by Balochistan government spokesperson Shahid Rind. An arrest under MPO is usually ordered to “maintain public order” in circumstances where there is a “threat to the public safety, including a “breach of peace and tranquility”. Rind also informed that Mengal had refused to turn himself in which is why the “enforcement agencies” were present at Mengal’s sit-in which was currently “stationed” at Lakpass. The sit-in at Lakpass has entered its tenth day. Earlier, Mengal had also written on X that his sit-in was “completely encircled by security forces” and that a “major operation against us is imminent.”
Separately, BNP-M’s official handle on X has also claimed that on 6 April, the “Police used tear gas and shelling on BNP district office bearers and workers” at their sit-in in Quetta while authorities simultaneously raided “houses in Sariab, violating the sanctity of their homes.”
Mengal in his aforementioned post on X has also called for an immediate “shutdown of all national highways in protest.” BNP-M has also reiterated the call for “roadblocks and a shutter-down strike” across the province on 7 April.
BNP-M Senior Vice President Sajid Tareen backed the call for a strike at a press conference in Quetta which was also attended by members of the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP). BNP-M supporters and workers have already blocked a road near the Eastern Bypass in Quetta’s Baloch Colony area and the route to the city’s Sariab Road
Why is the BNP-M protesting? What happened to the negotiations between the BNP and government?
Reacting to the arrest of Dr Mahrang Baloch and other Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) leaders and activists, subsequent arreat of Sammi Deen Baloch, and action against BNP-M sit-in in Quetta, the BNM-P had began a “long march” on 28 March from Wadh to Quetta. Dr Baloch and 16 BYC members were arrested while protesting in Quetta after they accused the police of having “beaten to death” three of their fellow protestors. Sammi Baloch was later detained under Section 3 of the Sindh Maintenance of Public Order (3 MPO) order in Karachi while protesting against the arrest of Dr Mahrang Baloch and other BYC activists. Her name has now been removed from the order and she has been released.
According to Rind, the Balochistan government has held two rounds of talks with the BNP-M over the latter’s demands since it began its “long march.” However, both sides have failed to reach an agreement. The BNP-M has been demanding the release of all arrested/detained “Baloch activists.” Further, Rind alleged that the BNP-M had asked permission to protest in the “Red Zone” which could not be granted and hence they were alternatively asked to protest at Sariab Road. Referring to the failure of the talks, Mengal claimed that negotiations had failed because the “government delegations” did not possess “the authority to make decisions on the demands tabled by the BNP.”
What next?
What started as an anti-arrest “long-march,” sit-in” and “protest” has already turned into a larger BNP-M and provincial government standoff. Despite international condemnation over Dr Mahrang Baloch and BYC members arrest, and calls by the civil society and by print national media to refrain from treating the BYC as an anti-state element and to take a reconciliatory approach, the state seems fixated on projecting itself as a “hard state.” If Mengal is arrested, tensions are likely to exacerbate between the provincial government and the BNP-M. Any protracted standoff with its characteristic violence will not only adversely impact the already tense social fabric of the province but will also have economic fallouts as was witnessed by the country very recently in Kurram.
References
“Balochistan govt warns of detaining Akhtar Mengal if BNP-M heads to Quetta,” The News International, 7 April 2025
“BNP-M demonstrators face tear gas, shelling amid sit-in near Quetta,” Dawn, 7 April 2025
In Brief
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Opposition parties demonstrate against six-canal project in Sindh
On 6 April, various parties continued to stage demonstrations against the federation’s proposed plan to construct canals on the Indus River. Members of the Grand Democratic Alliance, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F), nationalist parties of Sindh, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) deemed the plan as a life-and-death issue for Sindh. In a statement, the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional leader Sardar Abdul Rahim rejected the provincial government’s claims as propaganda while speaking to protestors. He alluded to relevant stakeholders of Sindh who have taken to the streets by marching from Karachi to Kashmore to protest. He urged the residents of Karachi to take over the streets as around 85 per cent Indus River serves as a water source for the province’s capital and the further worsening of the water scarcity if there is no downstream flow in the Kotri Barrage. Alongside Rahim, PTI President Haleem Adil Sheikh called for the Sindh government to step down and that President Asif Ali Zardari actually backed the project. Separately, a conference organized by the Sindh Haari (Peasant) Committee was organized at the Hyderabad Press Club to explain the issue pertaining to the canal’s construction. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s grandson Zuliqae Ali Bhutto Jr also attended the conference and condemned the government of separating “the sea from the river” as the Tarbel and Mangla dams have turned dry. He asserted that the canal on the Indus River was unacceptable. Addressing the project’s proponents he said: “You cannot lecture us, go study geography,” as the people of Sindh have uncompromised and complete “rights over the Indus River.” In another demonstration, the JUI-F held demonstrations across various bridges of the Indus River opposing the project and demanding its cancellation. (“Sindh’s opposition parties intensify agitation against canals project,” The News International, 7 April 2025)
On a hard state approach: “Without a strong political dimension in the state’s response, that meets the requirements of legitimacy, peace and security will remain elusive,” argues an opinion in Dawn
On 7 April, in an opinion titled “Hard or competent state?” in Dawn, Maleeha Lodhi argued against the government’s promotion of a ‘hard state’ rhetoric after recent events in Balochistan. The country has employed a set of coercive measures over the years but it hasn’t yielded desirable results of security, stability, and financial solvency. In her opinion, a competent or strong state notion must alternatively be pushed. The author described a competent state as one which effectively performs the fundamental role of a strong state. In such a state, all government organs function as per the purpose of their creation while the governance and institutions are robust. In this regard, Pakistan has “a long way to go” to be held as a strong or competent state. The author shifted her focus to those in state positions as their role is relevant to the discussion. She began by differentiating the postulations of power and authority and how they apply in the present context of Pakistan. Authority is the legitimate use of power that “goes beyond the narrow interests or self-preservation of the ruling elite” while power as a whole needn’t be so. Applying this in the current realities of Pakistan, it is apparent how elected or appointed representatives have “come up short.” The employment of “kinetic means” and flawed policies to resolve ancient predicaments, and address popular discontent, injustice, and poor governance has led to a rise in “raging insurgencies” that are hard to contain or defeat. It becomes a ground for foreign “hostile powers to exploit,” the author observed while alluding to potential foreign involvement in the terror violence and support to militants in Balochistan. The state has used hard power to curb militant activity in Balochistan. However, the absence of “non-kinetic efforts” to provincial politics, economy, and society to address public grievances has unintentionally heightened the situation. Instead of engaging militants who attract participation via people’s grievances, the government has cracked down on the leaders and activists of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee. Hence, the use of a heavy-handed approach in a political vacuum amidst an unrepresentative provincial government “has meant state actions have lacked the authority and legitimacy needed to elicit public support.” (Maleeha Lodhi, “Hard or competent state?,” Dawn, 7 April 2025)
ECONOMY
US delegation to attend minerals investment event
On 6 April, according to The Express Tribune, a US delegation led by Bureau of South Central Asian Affairs official, Eric Meyer is set to visit Islamabad between 8 to 10 April. The visit is aimed at advancing the US’ interest in critical minerals at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum (PMIF25). It will be jointly organized by the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited in collaboration with the Government of Pakistan to create a platform for investment opportunities in the mineral sector of Pakistan. The event is expected to project the country’s mineral potential by having key stakeholders participate in it. In fact, the Shehbaz Sharif administration intends to exhibit its 600,000 square kilometers of mineral outcrop zones. (“US delegation to attend minerals investment forum in Islamabad,” The Express Tribune, 6 April 2025)
Farmers to launch nationwide demonstrations on 13 April against corporate farming
On 7 April Dawn reported that farmers will be initiating a countywide demonstration on 13 April. The farmers are furious over the government’s plan to introduce corporate farming. Corporate farming is being brought under the Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI). Pakistan Kissan Rabita Committee, Anjuman Mazareen Punjab, Hari Jadojehad Committee, Crofter Foundation and several others have collectively decided to hold demonstrations in a number of towns across the country on 13 April. The demonstrators is aimed at pushing the government to put a stop to corporate farmingand expulsion of laborers from farming areas in which they have contributed “for generations.” They also aim to force the government to stop the building of “controversial canals” in Punjab. In addition to that, the protesters want that the “public sector agricultural lands” must be allocated to the “peasants” and repeal of “notices” which have asked “tenants” to pay their “dues” worth “millions of rupees.” (“Farmers plan countrywide rallies against corporate farming,” Dawn, 7 April 2025)
Tendering process to begin for Khyber Pass Economic Corridor
On 7 April, Dawn reported that the National Highway Authority (NHA) has begun the procedure to construct Khyber Pass Economic Corridor. (KPEC). NHA has opened tenders for “two lots of its component.” It is known by “Khyber Torkham Expressway” which is a “48 km long highway.” Earlier, it was decided that the project would be initiated in 2017, however, due to various causes it could not advance. As per the information available on the Economic Affairs Division webpage, the KPEC project envisions to build “48 km long 4-lane, dual carriageway high speed access-controlled motorway.” KPEC would connect Peshawar and Torkham which would enhance growth in the economy and bring prosperity to regions linked with it. As per a member of NHA, it is made sure that there are no discrepancies in the tendering process. He confirmed that the firm quoting the lowest value would be offered the “contract.” Once completed, KPEC would link “Pakistan and Afghanistan with Central Asia” via Khyber Pass.
(Syed Irfan Raza, “Khyber Pass Economic Corridor project gets rolling,” Dawn, 7 April 2025)
Traders call for reducing tariffs on imports from US
On 7 April, an article in Dawn discussed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The Trump administration has levied a flat 10 per cent duty on any item imported to the US and an extra “reciprocal tariff” on products imported from “57 countries.” The introduction of reciprocal tariffs have driven the “average” 2 per cent “US import” duty to 22 per cent. The import duties in the US after introduction of reciprocal tariffs would be the highest in the last 100 years of history. As per Dawn, the recently imposed import duties are neither “fair” nor “reciprocal.” The objective of the reciprocal tariffs is to bring down the US “trade deficit. The US has imposed 29 per cent reciprocal tariffs on products imported from Pakistan. As per renowned economists, the reciprocal tariffs would seriously damage the economy of several countries apart from the US. The tariffs are likely to impede “global supply chains” and increase costs “for businesses and consumers.” The US is likely to incur retaliation from countries that have been hit with reciprocal tariffs. China has levied 34 per cent retaliatory duties on products coming from the US. Canada and the EU are still discussing how to respond to the imposed tariffs. India has reduced tariffs on products coming from the US. Vietnam has offered to reduce import duties to zero provided if the US decides to decrease import duties. Pakistani importers have called for eradication of import duties on products arriving from the US like “cotton, soybean and pharmaceuticals.” They have also called for formulating a “free trade agreement” with the US. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that a FTA would be formulated. Pakistan cannot decrease taxes on imports coming just from the US. As per WTO norms, Pakistan has to decrease tariffs for all countries, if it is “extending” the privilege to the US. (Manzoor Ahmed, “Adapting to Trump’s new tariffs,” Dawn, 7 April 2025)
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT & WATER
On the looming water crisis: “The path forward demands not just awareness but actions — a decisive course correction and a collective effort to secure the nation’s water future — before it’s too late,” argues an editorial in Dawn
On 7 April, an editorial titled “Water scarcity — A threat to food security in Pakistan,” highlighted the looming water crisis in Pakistan despite possessing the largest irrigation systems in the world. As an agro-based economy, Pakistan’s current water shortage will have undesirable implications on food security, threatening livelihoods amid a rapidly growing population. The primary causes behind this shortage, according to economist Sumbal Riaz, are linked to over-extraction from the Indus River system and car washing machines as well as the use of outdated irrigation techniques. Moreover, the non-construction of dams and canals has unfavorably impacted the natural flow of water. The current situation is further exacerbated by insufficient rains and snowfall. The editorial quoted former Conservator of Forests, Gulzar Rehman, who noted Pakistan’s extreme vulnerability to climate change and proposed a “multi-faceted approach” to improve “water management and safeguarding food security” in the short term and long term. These strategies include modernizing outdated irrigation systems, implementing water conservation practices, recycling water, desalination, constructing new dams, adapting to climate change among others.
On the same day, an editorial in Dawn provided a set of solutions to address Pakistan’s water crisis. It decried the non-prioritization of costs linked to climate change, the environment and the water sector. It highlighted the acknowledgment of these issues by the judiciary and the government but conceded that no policy action or strategy is in sight as Pakistan lacks technologies for groundwater recharge and water storage. One way is the usage of an inflatable rubber dam which has been used in countries like Europe, North America, and Asia. They not only help store water and control floods but also help recharge groundwater aquifers. Another approach is the construction of groundwater recharge wells to protect water tables and manage urban flooding. (“Water scarcity — A threat to food security in Pakistan,” The News International, 7 April 2025; “Agriculture: Deepening water crisis,” Dawn, 7 April 2025)
Gilgit-Baltistan farmers resort to artificial glaciers amid warmer winters
On 7 April, Dawn reported how the farmers of Gilgit-Baltistan have resorted to self-help amidst warmer winters perpetuated by climate change. The lack of water caused by reduced snowfall and seasonal snowmelt that flows through the valleys havedriven farmers in Skardu to create ice towers as an alternative source of water in order to irrigate their apple and apricot orchards. This solution was discovered via a YouTube video where environmental activist Sonam Wangchuk from Ladakh developed the technique of creating artificial glaciers ten years ago. It entails the transfer of water from streams into the village and spraying it in the air during extreme cold temperatures leading to the creation of ice towers. (“Artificial glaciers boost water supply in Gilgit-Baltistan,” Dawn, 7 April 2025)
SECURITY
Security forces neutralize eight militants attempting to trespass border in KP
On 6 April, security forces neutralized eight militants in Hassan Khel, North Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As per the communique from Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the militants were attempting to trespass the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Security forces deployed at the border were vigilant and opened fire againstthem. The exchange of fire between terrorists and security forces resulted in the wounding of four militants. Security forces have also initiated a military “operation” to root out any militants present in the region. President Zardari praised the security forces for successfully neutralizing the terrorists. PM Sharif also appreciated the efforts put in by the security forces to prevent militants from entering Pakistan. ISPR highlighted how Pakistan has been continually urging the Taliban government to have better surveillance on their “side of border.” Pakistan has also been pushing the Afghan government to not let their land become a breeding ground for anti-Pakistan terrorists. The Taliban government has rejected Pakistan’s claims. However, as per a report published by UN in February brought forward how the Taliban government has been providing “logistic, operational and financial” to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan which has facilitated their resurgence. The report mentioned that TTP has set up “new training” camps in Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost and Paktika.” (Umer Farooq, “8 terrorists killed after infiltration bid foiled, says ISPR,” Dawn, 7 April 2025; Muhammad Anis, “Infiltration bid at border with Afghanistan thwarted,” The News International, 7 April 2025)
PAKISTAN OCCUPIED KASHMIR
Gilgit-Baltistan legal fraternity to carry out strike till 16 April
On 5 April, a legal statement issued by the Gilgit-Baltistan High Court Bar Association highlighted reservations over the government’s failure to fulfill lawyers’ demands. Key demands include the appointment to vacant seats in the GB Supreme Appellate Court and the extension of the Lawyers Protection Act to GB. Another bone of contention is the proposed land reforms draft which the legal community has labeled as ambiguous and faulty. They have demanded that their recommendations be included in the bill before it is passed in the legislature. Failure to do so would curtail people’s rights, they maintained. Hence, the statement comes as lawyers in the region have staged protests and boycotted court proceedings. A meeting held by GB’s legal fraternity decided to not appear before courts even in case of emergency cases till 16 April. Additionally, judges have been asked to not decide on cases in the absence of a lawyer as they will hold protests across various districts of the region. Furthermore, the licenses of those counsels that do not boycott proceedings till 16 April will be revoked. In case of appearances, the lawyers of various courts and tribunals will be imposed with a fine ranging from PKR 100,000 to PKR 300,000. (Jamil Nagri, “Lawyers in Gilgit-Baltistan go on strike till 16th,” Dawn, 6 April 2025)
AF-PAK
1636 Aghan refugees settled in Punjab sent back, 300 from Sindh
On 6 April, 1636 refugees from Afghanistan settled in Punjab and Sindh were sent back. From Punjab, more than 5000 refugees who belonged to Afghanistan and several other countries were sent to “transit camps” built specially for the “repatriation” process. Among the people who were sent to transit camps, more than 2000 were children and more than 1100 were women refugees. A major chunk of those being sent to transit camps possessed Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC). As per sources of Dawn, close to 100,000 refugees from Afghanistan have been residing illegally in Punjab. Those refugees who reside in Pakistan under “UNHCR mandate” and those who possess “valid legal documents” would be exempt from the repatriation process. In Sindh, more than 300 refugees from Afghanistan were sent back. Among the repatriated refugees, “37 were women, 79 were children and 191 were men.” Many refugees from Afghanistan have expressed discontent towards the “sudden” nature of executing the repatriation process. Many argue that they have been “peaceful and law abiding” individuals.
On 7 April, an editorial in Dawn titled “Afghan return” discussed the repatriation of refugees from Afghanistan who were settled in Pakistan. The editorial mentioned how the federal government gave the refugees a deadline of 31 March to go back, after which they would be forcefully deported. The editorial highlighted how Pakistan is not obligated to pay heed to the concerns raised by the UN High Commissioner of Refugees on the deportation process as Islamabad is not a signatory to refugee convention. The editorial, however, urged the federal government to ensure that the refugees who are being sent back are “treated humanely and respectfully.” Further, the editorial suggested that the concerned authorities must make sure that the “lives, property and dignity” of the refugees remain unharmed. (Mohammad Asghar, Imtiaz Ali & Asif Chaudhry, “Thousands of Afghans being deported from Punjab, Sindh,” Dawn, 7 April 2025; “Afghan return,” Dawn, 7 April 2025
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