Photo : Dawn
NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Dawn
In Focus
IMF disbursement boosts reserves ahead of budget talks
On 15 May, Dawn reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Pakistan’s total revenue to rise to nearly PKR 20 trillion in the next fiscal year, up from under PKR 17.8 trillion currently. This forecast follows technical-level discussions ahead of the federal budget. Formal policy-level talks are set for 19–23 May, aiming for budget finalization before its announcement on 2 June. The IMF has projected a GDP growth rate of 3.6 per cent and inflation averaging 7.7 per cent, significantly higher than this year’s 5.1 per cent. This scenario, combining growth and inflation, is expected to boost revenue collection by over PKR 1.4 trillion from this year’s estimated PKR 12.4 trillion. The fiscal deficit is targeted at 5.1 per cent of GDP. These figures will form the basis of the agreement between the IMF and Pakistani authorities.
A day earlier, the State Bank of Pakistan confirmed receiving USD 1 billion from the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), raising reserves to USD 11.33 billion. This second tranche, brings total assistance disbursement under EFF to USD 2.1 billion, and is said to strengthen reserve stability amid external debt stress and regional tensions. According to senior financial officials, the inflow sends a strong signal to investors and is expected to stabilize the exchange rate, which is crucial for attracting foreign investment. Additional climate financing is anticipated to further support reserves and manage upcoming debt repayments. (Khaleeq Kiani, “IMF expects Rs20tr revenue, stricter spending,” Dawn, 15 May 2025; Shahid Iqbal, “SBP receives 2nd tranche of $1bn from IMF,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)
India-Pakistan Tensions
Shehbaz Sharif invites India to a comprehensive dialogue on Kashmir
On 14 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif has invited India to comprehensive talks on all major issues, including Kashmir and water sharing. Speaking at Pasrur Cantonment in Sialkot, he responded strongly to Prime Minister Modi’s recent speech, warning, “Water is our red line; don’t even think about diverting our water.” Referring to alleged damage to Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum project, Shehbaz claimed Pakistan could have retaliated by damaging major Indian dams like Baglihar but chose restraint. He also challenged the Prime Minister over historical and recent incidents, asking who trained Mukti Bahini in 1971, attacked the Samjhota and Jaffar Express trains, and sent Kulbhushan Jadhav. He also stated that “We have fought terrorism for years, don’t lecture us.”He warned India of a strong response to any further aggression, saying Pakistan would destroy any remaining enemy assets. He rejected claims of inferiority in conventional warfare and criticized India for avoiding neutral investigations. Sharif asked PM Modi to set aside differences. “Let us extinguish this fire,” he said, calling for dialogue on the core issues.
PM Sharif speaks to Antonio Guterres, the third call in two weeks
On the same day, Shehbaz Sharif spoke with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. He expressed appreciation for their diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the region.. He praised Guterres’ continued engagement and preventive diplomacy, calling it a reflection of his commitment to the UN Charter and regional peace. This was their third call in two weeks. Sharif also voiced concern over alleged Indian provocative rhetoric, which he said threatened fragile peace. He stressed that resolving the Kashmir issue per UN Security Council resolutions was essential for lasting stability. Guterres welcomed the recent ceasefire and expressed condolences over alleged civilian casualties. He reaffirmed the UN’s commitment to staying engaged with both nations to promote peace and stability.
Pakistan thanks UAE, Azerbaijan, and Turkiye
On 15 May, The News International reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke with the UAE President, emphasizing Pakistan’s commitment to peace in South Asia and the ceasefire with India. Shehbaz appreciated the UAE’s diplomatic efforts during the crisis and highlighted growing economic cooperation between the two, aiming to deepen their partnership. Separately, PM Sharif met Azerbaijan’s Ambassador Khazar Farhadov, thanking Azerbaijan for its solidarity during tensions. He expressed hope to strengthen economic ties following President Aliyev’s visit to Pakistan in July.
Responding to PM Sharif’s post, in which he praised Turkiye’s role in promoting peace, Turkish President Erdogan wrote on X “We highly appreciate the prudent, patient policy of the Pakistani state that prioritises dialogue and reconciliation in resolving disputes.” Separately, the Saudi Crown Prince expressed hope that the recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan would contain escalation and “restore calm” between the two neighbors. He welcomed the ceasefire during his opening speech at the GCC-USA summit in Riyadh on 14 May held in Trump’s presence. (Syed Irfan Raza, “Pakistan invites India for ‘comprehensive dialogue’ on Kashmir,” Dawn, 15 May 2025; Asim Yasin, Muhammad Anis, “‘Score settled, don’t lecture us’: Ready for both peace, war: choice is yours, PM tells Modi,” The News International, 15 May 2025)
In Brief
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Balochistan CM warns “militants” and urges them to surrender
On 15 May, Dawn reported that Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Sarfraz Bugti has stated that the ongoing insurgency would face the fate of the Kurdish movement in Turkiye at the celebration of Youm-i-Jashn-i-Fatah, describing the conflict as an India-backed campaign driven by personal interests. He urged the militants to surrender and warned them by referring to the 9 May and 10 May incidents as a demonstration of Pakistan's military resolve, and said that the insurgency could be dealt in the same way. He asserted that the death of innocent laborers and travelers on suspicion of being informants is unrepresentative of Baloch traditions. He paid tribute to martyred soldiers, vowed to deliver justice to the killers, and assured government support to their families. (“Balochistan CM asks ‘militants’ to surrender,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)
Imran Khan agrees to a dialogue following PM Sharif’s invitation
On 15 May, The News International reported that Imran Khan has agreed to a dialogue following the invitation from PM Shehbaz Sharif. According to sources of The News, Khan approved the offer during a meeting with PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan at Adiala jail on 12 May. Barrister Gohar declined to provide further details about the discussion. While the party has not explicitly accepted the offer, The News says that the party plans to proceed with private discussions, avoiding media attention to ensure effectiveness, unlike past efforts. Sources claim that Khan expects the dialogue to have support from the military establishment and that he is open to meeting a representative from the establishment to facilitate the dialogue. This dialogue calls for political reconciliation amid growing tensions with India. (“Imran accepts Shehbaz’s offer for talks,” The News International, 15 May 2025)
Following the tensions with India, calls for an internal reset
On 15 May, an editorial in The News International titled “Let this be a reset,” urged Pakistan to build on the national unity witnessed during recent tensions with India. The article pointed out that following the Pahalgam attack, Pakistan’s calm yet firm response reflected a rare cohesion among the state, military, media, and citizens. Despite deep political divisions, the country stood united. This rare unity is a reminder that internal polarization can be overcome. The lifting of the ban on X (formerly Twitter) enabled diverse voices to counter “Indian propaganda” with facts and humour, highlighting that free expression strengthens national resolve. The editorial warned against equating dissent with disloyalty and urged the state to differentiate between genuine political grievances and anti-state actions. As India may now shift to indirect tactics, Pakistan must respond not just with force, but with political clarity, public trust, and inclusiveness. This, it argues, should mark a national political reset. (“Let this be a reset,” The News International, 15 May 2025)
ECONOMY
Government mulls hiking fuel prices
On 15 May, Dawn reported that the government is considering imposing an additional PKR 4.12 per litre increase on petroleum products for the third time in two months. This move is expected to offset relief in fuel prices set to be announced today. The PKR 4.12 per litre charge would generate approximately PKR 75 billion annually, enabling oil marketing companies (OMCs), refineries, and retail dealers to address their financial concerns. Additionally, the Petroleum Division has proposed implementing a general sales tax of PKR 3–5 per litre on petroleum products starting 1 July. In a summary sent to the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), it also recommended a PKR 1.87 per litre allowance through adjustments in the inland freight equalization margin (IFEM), aimed at appeasing OMCs and refineries. This is projected to have a financial impact of nearly PKR 34 billion. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Citizens may bear brunt of extra costs on fuel prices,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)
SOCIETY
On honour killings:
“There is no honour in murder,” argues an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 15 May, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled “Honour Killing Disgrace” discussed the issue of honour killings in Pakistan, where hundreds of women and some men are killed by family members each year. The editorial delineated the main reasons, which include the choice of spouse, rumours, and suspicions, which are perceived by families as bringing shame. The editorial referenced a recent High Court ruling on a case in which a man allegedly killed his wife for honour. The court strongly denounced honour killing, calling it a “barbaric and religiously indefensible act.” Despite such condemnations, the editorial noted that honour killings remain widespread, particularly in rural areas of Sindh, Balochistan, and South Punjab. The court also labeled this practice as fasad fil arz, meaning “mischief on earth.” The editorial argued that honour killings are wrongly justified using cultural and religious reasoning, while in reality, all major Islamic schools of thought consider such acts grave sins. It further pointed out that the continued cases of honour killings are not just due to “outdated mindsets “but also because of “weak law enforcement, out-of-court settlements, and legal loopholes.”The editorial criticized political patronage and local jirgas for protecting perpetrators. It demanded that the government to go beyond merely passing laws and ensure consistent enforcement. This could include “cracking down on jirgas and implementing strict legal prosecution.” The editorial concluded that Pakistan cannot claim to be a just and modern society while women’s lives continue to be sacrificed at the “altar of misplaced honour.” It emphasized that society must collectively accept the notion that “there is no honour in murder” and assert instead that there is “only shame in silence.” (“Honour killing disgrace,” The Express Tribune, 15 May 2025)
SECURITY
Grenade attack on PPP rally in Quetta kills two, injures ten
On 15 May, Dawn reported on the attack during a Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) rally in Quetta on 14 May, leading to the death of one party worker and another man. Ten others were reportedly injured. The report revealed that the grenade attack took place during the PPP rally that was led by Ali Madad Jattak, former president of the PPP Balochistan, and MPA Obaidullah Gorgag on their way to the public meeting to celebrate Pakistan’s victory against India. Armed men were seen by witnesses to be firing into the air, followed by the throwing of grenades. The injured were rushed to the hospital, in Jattak and Obaid were left unharmed. Officials have blocked the blast site, and search operations have been launched to track the attackers. Despite the attack, most of the participants continued towards the public meeting. Balochistan CM Mir Sarfraz Bugti condemned the attack, expressed his grief, and assured that the attackers would be brought to justice, while ensuring the injured received proper care. (Saleem Shahid, “Grenade attack on PPP rally in Quetta leaves two dead,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)
Pakistan safe for tourism post-ceasefire, claims PATO
On 15 May, Dawn reported on the Pakistan Association of Tour Operators (PATO) reassurance to both domestic and foreign tourists that, following the ceasefire announcement, Pakistan is safe and ready for tourists. PATO Chairman Niaz Ahmed said that the “fog of war” has lifted and that both countries have committed to upholding peace. He also highlighted that tourism has resumed across the country, with tourists expected to visit key locations such as K2, Gilgit-Baltistan, and the Chitral Valleys in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which are described as “safe, peaceful, and open to visitors.” However, Mr. Ahmed acknowledged that “some segment of media and fake posts over social media may create some level of uncertainty.” On the contrary, he emphasized that the situation on the ground is stable and tourism will continue as planned. (Jamil Nagri, “Pakistan safe, peaceful for tourists post-ceasefire,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)
EXTERNAL
Japan grants USD 3.5 million for smart water meters in Faisalabad
On 15 May, Dawn reported on the agreement signed between Pakistan’s Economic Affairs Division and the Embassy of Japan, under the Economic and Social Development Programme. The report stated that the Japanese government has approved a USD 3.5 million grant for Pakistan under this programme, and this grant will be used to install smart water meters and equipment that are related to the Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA). The goal of the programme is to supply about 8,400 smart water meters to WASA in Faisalabad. It aims to shift the flat rate system to a metering rate system that would be based on actual water consumption and would increase the water revenue of WASA. This programme aims to improve water distribution, supporting digital transformation of water supply, an efficient billing system, and also to improve the distribution of water. The report stated that during the signing ceremony, the Japanese Ambassador conveyed his hope for improved water services and public health through this grant, and JICA Pakistan Chief Representative emphasized that the smart meters played a key role in digital transformation, and the service delivery has also improved. JICA plans to provide safe water in Pakistan through this aid. Currently, Faisalabad is facing water issues is mainly due to the existing “flat rate tariff system” that leads to water wastage, and the residents of this area only get water for six hours a day. WASA does not have any means to “expand or renovate the facilities” due to the water tariff revenue is not increasing. (Amin Ahmed, “Japan approves $3.5m grant for smart water meters,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)
China welcomes India-Pakistan ceasefire
On 15 May, Dawn reported on the Vice Foreign Minister of China Sun Weidong’s, meeting with the Pakistan Ambassador to China, Khalil Hashmi, on 14 May. According to China’s Foreign Ministry statement, the meeting was held to discuss the issues between Islamabad and New Delhi. The report mentioned Sun’s statement: “China welcomes and supports Pakistan and India achieving a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire,” and that China is ready to play a constructive role in the matter. (“China, Pakistan discuss tensions with India,” Dawn, 15 May 2025)