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NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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In Focus
Proposal for a Pakistan Confederation with Bangladesh
Bilateral Bonhomie on an upswing
What happened?
On 19 May, Dawn reported that PML-N’s Abdul Qayyum, who is also a former Lt General in the army, has floated the idea of Bangladesh and Pakistan coming together in a confederation. As per the former Lt General, Pakistan could furnish “military training and assistance” for the Bangladeshi military. He also pointed out how Pakistan can draw lessons from Bangladesh, given the latter’s progress in “industrial growth, commerce and financial management.”
On 17 May, Bangladeshi High Commissioner of Pakistan Iqbal Hussain informed that the present visa regulations between the two countries have been simplified. The purpose for simplifying of the visa regulations is to enhance “economic growth” given that Dhaka recognizes Pakistan as “gateway to central Asian countries.”
What is the background?
First, the restart of the government-to-government trade. On 25 February, Pakistan exported 50,000 tons of rice to Bangladesh, ending the pause in government-to-government trade. Trade between the private players of the two countries had restarted in November 2024. However, the export goods from Pakistan to Bangladesh had to first be unloaded in either Sri Lanka, Malaysia or Singapore before reaching the final destination in Bangladesh. Over the years, Bangladesh has primarily relied upon India, Thailand and Vietnam for its rice imports.
Second, the visit of Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch. On 16 April, Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch landed in Dhaka. The visit of the foreign secretary of Pakistan came after 15 years, ending the pause in “diplomatic engagement.” Foreign Secretary Baloch and Chief Adviser of the interim government in Bangladesh deliberated on how to revitalize the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Third, the enhancing of defence relations between the two countries. On 14 January, the Principal Staff Officer of Bangladesh Lt General S.M Kamrul Hassan held a meeting with Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Sahir Shamshad Mirza in Rawalpindi. The two sides decided to jointly look into the “regional security dynamics.” The military leaders from the two countries discussed the need to collaborate to combat the threat of terrorism and also for sharing of intelligence data. Lt General Hassan praised the Pakistan military for showcasing “exceptional professionalism” and noted the lives laid down by the Pakistani soldiers in combating terrorism.
Fourth, the emphasis on the need to enhance cooperation in education sector. On 19 March, the High Commissioner of Bangladesh in Pakistan urged for enhancing cooperation in the “higher education sector” of the two countries. Previously, in December 2024, the federal government of Pakistan had announced that it would provide 300 scholarships in a number of areas such as engineering, sciences, medicine, arts, social sciences etc for Bangladeshi students to study in Pakistan. As per the ministry of education in Pakistan, the purpose to provide scholarships to Bangladeshi students is to enhance relations between the two countries.
References
(“Pakistan, Bangladesh begin direct trade with rice exports,” Dawn, 25 February 2025
Waseem Ashraf Butt,Bangladesh easing visa policy for Pakistani traders,” Dawn, 18 May 2025, Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Bangladesh PSO, military leadership discuss defence ties,” Dawn, 15 January 2025, “Pakistan, Bangladesh underscore ‘enduring partnership’ for resillience against external influences,” Dawn, 14 January 2025, “Bangladesh for strengthening collaboration in higher education,” Dawn, 20 March 2025, “Pakistan to offer 300 scholarships to Bangladeshi students,” Dawn, 13 December 2024, “Foreign secretary in Bangladesh for FOC talks after 15-year diplomatic break,” Dawn, 17 April 2025, Mariana Baabar, Pakistan,Bangladesh revive high-level talks after 15 years,” The News International, 18 April 2025, Iftikhar A Khan, “PML-N leader proposes confederation with Bangladesh,” Dawn, 19 May 2025)
ON INDIA
Renewed calls for reopening of Kartarpur corridor post India-Pakistan ceasefire
On 19 May, Dawn reported on the alleged growing demands in India to reopen the Kartarpur Corridor, to enable Sikh devotees to visit Guru Nanak’s shrine in Pakistan. This follows India’s recent permission to Afghan truckers through Wagah, despite earlier closure of the Wagah-Attari crossing after the Pahalgam attack, a move reciprocated by Pakistan. Giani Kuldeep Singh Gargajj, the officiating Jathedar of Sri Akal Takht Sahib, urged both governments to reopen the corridor, stating easing bilateral atmosphere between the two. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi added to this, calling Kartarpur a symbol of Pakistan’s solidarity with our Sikh brothers and sisters. In his statement on X, he alleged that “Stopping Sikhs from visiting Kartarpur exposes Modi and BJP’s fascist communal agenda and lack of religious tolerance.” (“Demands grow for Kartarpur corridor reopening,” Dawn, 19 May 2025; “Stopping Sikhs from Kartarpur exposes Modi’s fascist agenda: Naqvi, The News International, 19 May 2025)
Responses from civil society
On 19 May, in an opinion in Dawn titled “After the crisis,” Maleeha Lodhi argued that it may be too early to fully assess the dimensions of the India-Pakistan recent tensions but some conclusions can be made. The recent military escalation between the two, marks the first time both sides used missile and air strikes on each other’s mainland since becoming nuclear powers. It saw usage of advanced technologies like drones and the conflict moved beyond Kashmir, bringing the two nations alarmingly close to a full-scale war.
While third-party intervention eased the situation, each side interpreted outcomes differently. India claimed to have set a “new normal,” where military retaliation would follow any terror attack. Pakistan, on the other hand, argued that its swift response reaffirmed the credibility of its conventional deterrence, preventing further escalation.
Lodhi noted that India failed to achieve its military objectives, and Modi’s claims of destroying “terrorist infrastructure” remain unverified. The crisis also exposed New Delhi’s miscalculation of US support, with Trump offering to mediate on Kashmir, a diplomatic setback for India. Though a fragile ceasefire is in place and confidence-building measures are underway, normalcy is unlikely to return soon and remains uncertain. (Maleeha Lodhi, “After the crisis,” Dawn, 19 May 2025)
On India-Pakistan ceasefire
On 19 May, Dawn reported on the ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, which was reached on 10 May and is said to have no expiry date, despite speculation that it would end on 18 May. The ceasefire was brokered through US and Saudi mediation, primarily by US Vice President JD Vance and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The report stated that military officials from both sides have remained in contact and agreed to reduce the deployment of troops along the border. The Pakistani military spokesperson said that the ceasefire was “holding” and emphasized that Pakistan remains committed to avoiding attacks on infrastructure and civilians. He urged for a resolution through dialogue. The report claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi described the ceasefire as a “temporary pause,” and the defense minister allegedly declared that Pakistan is on probation and that Operation Sindhoor is not over. Additionally, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry stated that India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty “could unleash consequences that echo for generations.” (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Ceasefire has no expiry date, officials say,” Dawn, 19 May 2025, "Pakistan warns India: don't weaponise water," The Express Tribune, 19 May 2025)
ON CHINA
Beijing to host trilateral talks with Pakistan and Afghanistan on regional peace
On 19 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan are set tohold trilateral talks on 20 May in Beijing to discuss regional peace and security. The meeting follows recent India-Pakistan tensions and alleged Afghan support for India. Pakistan’s Foreign Office confirmed that Foreign Minister Mr. Dar is travelling to China on 19 May at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart. (Syed Irfan Raza, “Dar heads to Beijing today for tripartite talks,” Dawn, 19 May 2025)
Sindh announces collaboration with China on a mini truck plant in Karachi
On 19 May, The News International reported that the Sindh government will establish a mini truck assembly plant in Karachi in collaboration with Chinese investors. In the launch ceremony held in the Chinese city of Bozhou, Senior Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon highlighted the initiative as a major step in Pakistan-China industrial and technical cooperation. Further, the government plans to set up electric vehicle charging stations across the province. (“Sindh, China to set up mini truck assembly line in Karachi,” The News International, 19 May 2025)
In Brief
ECONOMY
On Budget 2026:
“What Pakistan lacks is not a diagnosis but a cure,” argues The News International
On 19 May, an editorial in The News International titled “All eyes on Budget” discussed the upcoming FY 2026 budget, which will be presented on 2 June. The budget is crucial as it comes amid a cautious economic recovery. The finance team is confident, promising an "export-driven" and "strategic" budget. However, previous budgets with similar promises failed due to poor execution, not lack of analysis. Key barriers to growth include high financing costs, energy tariffs, and a complex tax system. The editorial emphasized that the budget must avoid political interference and focus on long-term reforms. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted the need for a bipartisan “charter of economy.” Export-led growth depends on reducing business costs, such as cheaper energy, streamlined regulations, and tax reforms. The rise in tax complaints indicates deep flaws in the tax system, with taxpayers facing harassment. Reforms should be fair, broad-based, and consultative, eliminating exemptions that benefit privileged groups. The savings should be directed toward education, healthcare, and social development. Pakistan’s low Human Development Index (HDI) underscores the lack of investment in these areas. The FY26 budget must not only balance the books but also build investor and public confidence, driving long-term reform. (“All eyes on Budget ‘26,” The News International, 19 May 2025)
Cotton industry hit by tax-free imports
On 19 May, Dawn reported on the potential crisis faced by the cotton industry due to tax-free imports of raw cotton and yarn, which pose a threat to the local industry. The cotton ginning season began early this year, and the industry fears that a 50 percent reduction in the total crop capacity could lead to an increased importation of cotton and edible oil. The cotton prices have been finalized between PKR 17,000 and PKR 17,500 per maund, and the new phutti would be traded for PKR 8300 to 8,500. The federal government approved the import of cotton seeds for the first time in 50 years, even though the trial imports from Russia and China were unsuccessful. This issue is linked to the lack of crop zoning laws, which has led to pollution and hindrances in cultivation. The report stated that Pakistan is facing issues not because of production, but due to consumption; the unsold bales in ginning factories are around 20,000 to 25,000, even though this year has seen the second-lowest cotton harvest. The ginners are facing payment delays worth millions of Pakistani rupees from textile mills for cotton sold on deferred payment terms.(“Cotton sector faces potential crisis amid tax-free imports,” Dawn, 19 May 2025)
IMF warns of USD 31.4 billion financing gap by 2027, signals need for another loan
On May 19, The News International reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected an external financing gap of USD 31.4 billion by 2027. Specifically, the gap is expected to be approximately USD 19.75 billion in the fiscal year 2025-26 and USD 19.35 billion in 2026-27. The report emphasized that managing this gap will be challenging without another loan from the IMF. The IMF also anticipated that there would be no privatization receipts until 2030. Exports are forecasted to reach USD 38.59 billion by 2027, while imports are expected to grow to USD 67.13 billion in 2027-28. Additionally, the current account balance and remittances are projected to remain between USD 1.48 billion and USD 3.85 billion until 2027, with worker remittances staying around USD 36 billion through 2027. The IMF predicted that Pakistan's gross foreign reserves would stand at USD 23 billion by 2027-28, complicating efforts to bridge the financing gap. Economists remain sceptical about economic progress, forecasting a GDP growth of only 4.5 percent by 2027. Despite various reforms, the population continues to face economic stress and poverty. Pakistan has accepted the IMF's conditions under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), which includes 13 key reforms. Some of these are a revenue-neutral electric vehicle (EV) policy that will tax combustion vehicles while subsidizing EVs and energy-efficient procurement rules. Additionally, Pakistan has agreed to allocate 30 percent of the weight for climate infrastructure projects selected by the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP), expand the green finance framework, and finalize its energy project by June. The expansion of the Abiana system for efficient water pricing could generate revenues of PKR 300-325 billion, which could then be used to support water and irrigation projects. Additionally, Pakistan has agreed to implement a supplementary carbon levy through the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL), introducing an increase of Rs 5 per liter on gasoline and diesel over two years and extending the PDL to fuel oil. (Khalid Mustafa, Mehtab Haider, “IMF expects no proceeds from Pakistan’s privatisation plans till 2030, The News International, 19 May 2025)
On Agriculture:
“Getting agriculture right is not a luxury; it is a necessity,” highlights an opinion in the The Express Tribune
On 19 May, an opinion in The Express Tribune titled “Rise and fall of Pakistan's agriculture” examined the cause and impact of the dramatic fall in Pakistan’s agriculture sector in the 2024-25 fiscal year. Cotton production dropped by over 30 per cent, and maize and rice faced a similar drop, threatening food insecurity. The opinion identified unfavorable weather, low rainfall, erratic temperatures, and water scarcity as the major causes of low yields. “Water scarcity will likely remain an existential threat for Pakistani agriculture,” stated the opinion as it highlighted the “near, or dead levels” in Pakistan's largest reservoirs - Tarbela and Mangla dams. The Indus Water Treaty crisis with India is stated as adding a “layer of political risk” to the water crisis. The opinion also criticised various policy missteps, unsustainable system and rapid changes “without adequate preparation and the withdrawal of Government support” for exacerbating the issues.
However, the opinion highlighted the emergence of educated entrepreneurs' professional approach to farming and technological aids as signs of encouragement. Further, the opinion suggests “five key priorities” that need to be addressed to boost the sector. Firstly, water management through efficient irrigation like drip systems and revised water pricing to promote conservation. Second, enforced zoning to protect farmland from conversion to housing. Third, research focus that expands beyond seed development and includes soil health, storage, water, and value chains. Fourth, providing targeted subsidies and financing for smallholders based on performance. Finally, data-driven decision making by use of remote sensing, satellites, and AI for crop monitoring, yield prediction, and risk management. The opinion additionally recommends the involvement of the private sector, farmers’ organizations and civil society as full members in government initiatives. (“Rise and fall of Pakistan's agriculture,” The Express Tribune, 19 May 2025)
SOCIETY
On child marriage bill:
“Women and girls cannot remain imprisoned behind the bars of primeval social more,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 19 May, an editorial in Dawn titled “Overdue solace” welcomed the new, yet “long overdue” bill that penalises child marriage in the Islamabad Capital Territory. The editorial staunchly criticised the various legislations across Pakistan that “validate child abuse as well as allow adults to coerce young girls into illegal unions.” The editorial urged politicians and lawmakers to “own their responsibilities and convey the dangers of these primitive practices and pledge to implement reformist policies and laws” (“Overdue solace,” Dawn, 19 May 2025)
SECURITY
Balochistan car bomb explosion kills four, injures over 20
On 19 May, The News International reported four deaths and over 20 injured in a car bomb explosion at a Jabbar commercial market in Gulistan town of Balochistan on 18 May. The target of the attack is claimed to be Faizullah Ghabizai, “a pro-government tribal elder.” The back wall of the fort of Frontier Corps (FC) in the Gulistan area of Qila Abdullah was damaged, and heavy firing “between FC personnel and unknown armed men” followed the explosion. The banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has reportedly claimed responsibility for the FC fort attack. (“Four killed, 20 injured in Balochistan’s Qila Abdullah blast,” The News International, 19 May 2025)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan strengthens Russian and Central Asian connections at the Kazan forum
On 19 May, Dawn reported on Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Communications, Abdul Aleem Khan’s announcements on the country’s plan to “emerge as a key transit hub, bridging economies of South Asia and Central Asia,” through road networks connecting the cities of Karachi, Quetta and Gwadar with Central Asia and Europe. He highlighted the Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway (M-6) as a “focal project for good investment,” and also “revealed ongoing work on a pilot project for a railway line to Russia via Iran.” At the Kazan Forum organised by the Russian Federation in Tatarstan, Pakistan “welcomed cultural exchanges with Russia and Central Asian states,” reaffirming Pakistan's commitment to enhancing regional trade and economy. Mr Khan has also reportedly held a bilateral meeting and a joint session with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, expressing Pakistan’s “strong interest in developing a broad-based partnership with Russia.” Additionally, he met with Dubai Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem on matters of shipping and cargo logistics, and the Dubai delegation has expressed interest in investing in Pakistan’s projects, including M-6, M-9 and N25 Highways, reported Dawn. (“Pakistan aims to bridge Asian economies: Aleem,” Dawn, 19 May 2025)
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- An opinion in Dawn, 'After the crisis.’ |