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NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Reuters
In Focus
Pakistan sees 32 per cent decrease in violence-related deaths between April-June 2025
On 30 June, The Express Tribune reported on the recently published report by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) highlighting the state of violence across the country in the second quarter of 2025. As per the report, the number of deaths due to violence in the second quarter has come down by 32 per cent in comparison to the first quarter. In the first quarter, 900 people lost their lives due to violence. This number has come down to 615 in the second quarter. The deaths due to violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) came down to 389 in the second quarter, which was 567 in the first quarter. Balochistan, in the second quarter, recorded 190 deaths due to violence as opposed to 317 in the first quarter. KP and Balochistan continue to remain the most affected provinces. Close to 94 per cent of the deaths that occurred due to violence in the second quarter took place in KP and Balochistan. Further, 93 per cent of “violent incidents” in the second quarter took place in the two provinces. The number of deaths that occurred due to violence saw a surge in Punjab and “Azad Jammu and Kashmir.” Punjab witnessed 21 fatalities in the second quarter. This number was eight in the first quarter. “Azad Jammu and Kashmir” which did not see any deaths due to violence in the first quarter, witnessed six fatalities in the second quarter. Further, the report highlighted that terrorists endured most of the deaths due to violence. Civilians continue to be the prime target of the terrorist attacks.
On 1 July, an editorial in Dawn titled “Terrorist threat,” discussed the recent suicide attack in North Waziristan, which has claimed the lives of 13 soldiers. The editorial highlighted the report published by PICSS, according to which 85 militant attacks took place in May which resulting in the killing of 113 people. The editorial expressed concern, terming the numbers as “alarmingly high.” The editorial pointed out how the military blamed India for allegedly facilitating the TTP, which carried out the suicide attack. The editorial demanded that the government should put forward the evidence that substantiates India’s alleged role in the suicide attack in front of the world community. Further, the editorial demanded that the government should convey its stance to the Afghan Taliban: its support to TTP and enhancement of bilateral ties “cannot go hand in hand.”
On the same day, an editorial in The News International titled “Terror strike,” argued in favour of enhancing intelligence-based operations against militants. The editorial also emphasized the importance of strengthening the police force for combating terrorism. Further, it suggested that the Foreign Office must reveal the evidence that substantiates India’s role in terror activities across Pakistan on the international stage. The editorial also demanded that the Afghan Taliban take concrete steps to inhibit the anti-Pakistan activities of TTP.
References:
“Violence in Pakistan declines by 32% in Q2 2025,” The Express Tribune, 30 June 2025
“Terrorist threat,” Dawn, 1 July 2025
“Terror strike,” The News International, 1 July 2025
Pakistan assumes UN Security Council presidency
On 1 July, Dawn reported that Pakistan has assumed the presidency of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, undertaking a “symbolic but strategic role at a particularly fraught moment.” Pakistan’s presidency of the UN Security Council this year will mark the country’s eighth term on the body and its first presidency since 2013. Pakistan, as a non-permanent member, began its current two-year term in January this year and will serve through the end of 2026. Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, stated “Pakistan is going to assume the presidency of the United Nations Security Council at a time of global tumult marked by growing instability, escalating conflicts, complex geopolitical and geostrategic landscape, and serious threats to international peace and security.” He also highlighted that Pakistan will bring a “principled and balanced” worldview to the functioning of the Security Council. Further, he mentioned that Pakistan would work with other Council members “in a spirit of cooperation for collective and timely action” in consonance with the UN Charter and “corresponding to the expectations of the international community.” (Anwar Iqbal, “Pakistan assumes UN Security Council presidency,” Dawn, 1 July 2025)
Government hikes petrol and diesel rates
On 30 June, the federal government announced that the petrol and diesel rates would be hiked by PKR 8.36 per litre and PKR 10.69 per litre respectively. The increased rates would continue to apply until 15 July. After the increase in rates, the “ex-depot” rates of high-speed diesel and petrol stand at PKR 272.98 per litre and PKR 266.79 respectively. The surge in petrol and diesel rates is attributed to the conflict between Israel and Iran. The increase in diesel rates is expected to impact the inflation in the country as the transport sector heavily depends on it. The increase in cost of diesel would further add costs to vegetables and other food items. Petrol is mainly used by private vehicle owners, rickshaws, and two-wheeler vehicles, thus, the increase would impact the middle and lower-middle class sections of society. Further, the government would also charge an additional PKR 2.5 per litre “climate support” tax from 01 July 2025. (“Fuel prices go up in aftermath of Israeli attacks on Iran,” Dawn, 1 July 2025)
In Brief
POLITICS
Two PTI senior members in “Azad Jammu and Kashmir” join PPP
On 30 June, The Nation reported that two members of “Azad Jammu and Kashmir’s” legislative assembly who belonged to the PTI have quit the party. They have “officially joined” the PPP. The two members who defected from PTI are Chaudhry Rafiq Nayyar who was Senior Vice President of PTI “Azad Jammu and Kashmir” and the transport minister of “Azad Jammu and Kashmir” Javed Butt.
On 1 July, an editorial in Dawn titled “PTI in disarray,” discussed the current dire state of the PTI. As per the editorial, PTI is bearing the brunt of its “own indiscipline and incoherence.” The editorial highlighted how the factions inside the PTI are continually accusing each other of not being loyal to the party. The leaders in PTI continue to stress on the problem of not being able to consult party-Supremo Imran Khan. His lawyers and family members are only permitted to meet him. As per the editorial, “public sympathy and anger” had initially kept the party intact after Imran Khan was imprisoned. The editorial pointed out how the KP budget was hastily passed in the provincial assembly without CM Gandapur consulting Imran Khan. The editorial mentioned that PTI leaders would convene a press conference where they would dismiss reports of internal rifts. However, as per the editorial, this would not help in solving the party’s “deeper issues.”(“PTI faces blow in AJK as two key lawmakers defect to PPP,” The Nation, 30 June 2025 “PTI in disarray,” Dawn, 1 July 2025)
ECONOMY
Finance Bill 2025-26 receives approval from the President
On 30 June, The Express Tribune reported that President Zardari has approved the Finance Bill 2025-26, which was earlier passed in the National Assembly and the Senate. The Finance Bill will now be enforced as a law. Previously, on 10 June, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had put forward a budget of PKR 17.6 billion for the Financial Year 2025-26, emphasizing the government's priority towards “economic stability and growth.” In his address to the National Assembly regarding the federal budget, he highlighted how the remittances have climbed to USD 31.2 billion. He expects that the remittances will increase to PKR 37-38 billion by the end of the Fiscal year 2024-25. Opposition parties had put forward an amendment for postponing the passing of the budget, however, it was dismissed by the house. (“President Zardari signs Finance Bill 2025-26 into law,” The Express Tribune, 30 June 2025)
Government forecasts rise in exports, inflation at 5-7 per cent in FY 2025-26
On 1 July, Dawn reported that the government has projected a surge in exports and a moderate rise in inflation to a range of 5-7 per cent for FY2025-26, citing improved global economic conditions and domestic recovery trends. The Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for June, stated that Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) of Pakistan’s major trading partners, including the UK, US, Eurozone, and China, were operating above their long-term average of 100, indicating a likely hike in demand for Pakistani exports. Further, the ministry also predicted a potential increase in Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM), citing robust trends in cement dispatches and automobile sales.
Economic optimism as projected by the report is driven by an increase in current account surplus due to a rise in private sector credit, rising remittances, increased exports, and fiscal prudence. Worker remittances saw a sharp increase of 28.8 per cent, reaching USD 34.9 billion from USD 27.1 billion in the same period last year. Goods exports increased by 4 per cent to USD 29.7 billion, while imports increased 11.5 per cent to USD 54.1 billion, widening the trade deficit to USD 24.4 billion from USD 20 billion a year earlier. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at USD 2 billion, marginally decreased from USD 2.1 billion a year ago. The report noted that revenue growth exceeded expenditure growth during July-April FY25, reflecting a successful fiscal consolidation drive by the government. This has resulted in the fiscal deficit declining to 3.2 per cent of GDP from 4.5 per cent in the same period last year. Overall, the reports predicted “growth in production activity and enhanced investor confidence.” (Khaleeq Kiani, “Government sees exports rising, inflation at 5-7pc in FY26,” Dawn, 1 July 2025)
SPORTS
PCB appoints Azhar Mahmood as Pakistan’s head coach for Tests
On 30 June, Pakistan Cricket Board announced the appointment of Azhar Mahmood as Pakistan’s head coach for Test cricket. His tenure as the head coach would continue till April 2026 during which Pakistan is set to play two series, one against South Africa and the other against Bangladesh. In PCB’s official communique, it underscored the “extensive coaching and playing experience” of the new head coach. The position of Pakistan’s head coach for Tests was previously held by Aaqib Javed and Australia’s Jason Gillespie. (“Azhar named as acting red-ball coach,” The Express Tribune, 1 July 2025)
EXTERNAL
Iran border closure blocks access to edible items in Mashkhel, Balochistan
On 1 July, Dawn reported that during the Israel-Iran conflict last month, the people of Mashkhel were struggling to purchase essential commodities. Mashkhel is a border town in Balochistan, located around 700 km from Quetta with a road link. For years, the town with a population of approximately 67,000 has relied on Iran for daily use items, mainly because of its geographical remoteness from regular supply chain routes within Pakistan. Kabir Ahmad Reki, a local, claimed that the residents of this town are forced to purchase edible items from either Dalbandin, in neighbouring Chaghi district, or from Quetta at three times the original price. This is because of added transportation costs, owing to the long distance between the town and Quetta. Notably, the goods bought by Mashkhel residents from larger urban centres are also Iranian-made products that are brought in via transit trade. President of the Quetta Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mohammad Ayub Mariani, stated that “hurdles to trade with Iran lie on our part,” advocating subsidies and ration supplies from Karachi to be provided to people living in border towns. (Muhammad Akbar Notezai, “Iran border closure puts edibles out of reach for Mashkhel in Balochistan,” Dawn, 1 July 2025)
UK-Pakistan Trade dialogue to address non-tariff barriers
On 1 July, Dawn reported that British trade envoy to Pakistan, Mohammad Yasin, said that both countries will be launching the UK-Pakistan Trade Dialogue, a structured ministerial platform, mandated to “reducing non-tariff barriers through practical cooperation, technical support, and regulatory alignment” to streamline bilateral trade. Yasin visited Pakistan recently to discuss the establishment of the trade dialogue, which is scheduled for late 2025. During his visit, he held meetings focused on regulatory compliance, investment opportunities, and improving business-to-business links, especially in “high-value sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals.” NTBs hampering Pakistan-UK trade comprise strict UK technical standards and their accompanying high costs of certifications, complex post-Brexit customs procedures resulting in delays, and growing UK consumer demand for sustainably and ethically sourced commodities. Further, Pakistan’s “inefficient export procedures and infrastructure bottlenecks” limit trade growth, preventing businesses from fully benefiting from tariff exemptions. Yasin also emphasised the UK’s commitment to supporting Pakistan’s technology sector stressing that the UK “wants to see more Pakistani tech companies use the UK as a springboard to access wider European and global markets.” (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Pakistan-UK trade talks to tackle non-tariff barriers,” Dawn, 1 July 2025)
ON INDIA
Deputy PM Ishaq Dar condemns ‘weaponisation of Indus waters’
On 1 July, Dawn reported that Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that Pakistan “remains determined” to safeguard its rights, privileges, and entitlements under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and strongly rejects India’s attempts to weaponize water for its “narrow geopolitical objectives.” India has held the treaty in abeyance since May 2025. Deputy PM Dar said that India’s action of putting the treaty in abeyance is illegal, unilateral, and has no validity. Further, he stated that “the mettle of the nation was tested again recently,” accusing India of blaming Pakistan based on unfounded allegations following the Pahalgam attack and displaying unprovoked aggression during Operation Sindoor. Dar claimed that Islamabad retaliated to Delhi’s escalation with a “quid pro quo plus” response, which he stated is the “new normal” set by Pakistan if India continues to pursue the “dangerous” notion of “limited war under the nuclear threshold.” Additionally, on its case over the Indus Waters Treaty, the Foreign Office appreciated the decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague to issue a supplemental award.
On 1 July, an editorial in The Nation titled ‘IWT Legal Victory’ asserted that Pakistan has defeated India on all fronts—militarily, diplomatically, and now legally. The editorial claimed that the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling and issuance of a supplemental award in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) case is a legal defeat for India, which has suffered “diplomatic setbacks” and “military embarrassment” during the India-Pakistan conflict in May. The editorial advocated for Pakistan to champion the IWT at the “centre of its diplomatic agenda,” just like India’s campaign to isolate Pakistan.
The editorial claimed that the ruling clearly states that India has no authority to withdraw from the treaty on its own. Further, the editorial stated that the court affirmed its jurisdiction and issued a decision that reaffirms Pakistan’s stance, arguing that under international law, an upper riparian state cannot lawfully stop water to a lower riparian state. The editorial accused India of weaponizing the right to water, asserting that Pakistan must amplify such gross injustice around the world. The editorial also sought to connect the Kashmir issue with the IWT case, arguing that if Kashmir was provided the “promised plebiscite” and joined Pakistan, “the integrity of Pakistan’s water supply would be secured.” The editorial concluded by stating that India now faces a “mounting legal and diplomatic reality.”
On 30 June, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled ‘Watershed decision’ asserted that the Permanent Court of Arbitration's supplemental award affirming its jurisdiction over the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) “marks a critical juncture in South Asia's most volatile water dispute.” The editorial claimed that India’s rejection of the ruling reflects “dangerous fissures.” The editorial accused India of being a “rogue state” having disregard for international law and its enforcement, citing allegations of foreign interference and military aggression based on “flimsy grounds” devoid of evidence. Further, the editorial expressed disappointment, speculating that Western nations are biased when working with India because of its large consumer market, arguing that these circumstances will make it difficult to enforce a legal arbitration decision. Additionally, the editorial claimed that the ruling by the Court confirmed that “India has no authority to build any dams or barriers that would alter the flow of the river without Pakistan's consent.” The editorial concluded by stating that India needs to treat Pakistan with due respect. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “Pakistan to resist ‘weaponisation of Indus waters’,” Dawn, 1 July 2025 ;“Watershed decision,” The Express Tribune, 30 June 2025; “IWT Legal Victory,” The Nation, 1 July 2025)
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