Photo : x.com/MOIofficialGoP
NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : x.com/MOIofficialGoP
Global Politics Explainer
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
What happened?
On 20 July, Pakistan’s minister for interior Mohsin Naqvi met Sirajuddin Haqqani, interior minister in the interim Taliban government, in Kabul. The two ministers delved into issues related to “counter-terrorism, infiltration and the proscribed militant organization in Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).” Interior Minister Naqvi called for joint efforts to prevent militant organizations from creating “chaos and instability.” He stated that Pakistan for years has provided refuge to those who fled from Afghanistan, and that the country would still welcome Afghani citizens who come through legal channels.
On 19 April, Foreign Minister Dar visited Kabul for a one-day visit to deliberate on the security concerns. Both the countries decided to continue engaging in bilateral discussion for solving disputes. FM Dar claimed that both the countries would not allow their respective territories to be exploited by militant groups for launching terror attacks. FM Dar assured Kabul, that Afghan refugees who were being repatriated from Pakistan would be treated in a fair manner.
On 17 July, Pakistan and Afghanistan along with Uzbekistan inked a “trilateral agreement” for initiating a railway project-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) which will link the three countries. It is anticipated that the railway line would be 640 long which would link Termez in Uzbekistan, Logar in Afghanistan and Kurram in Pakistan.
What is the cross-border terrorism issue?
Islamabad had continually accused Afghanistan for furnishing “logistical and operational” backing to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which operates from its soil. There have been numerous attempts from the TTP fighters to trespass Af-Pak border, some of which were foiled by the Pakistani security forces. A report brought out by UN Security Council also had backed Pakistan’s claims. According to Global Terrorism Index 2025, 52 per cent of deaths due to terror attacks in Pakistan were orchestrated by the TTP. The two provinces adjoining Afghanistan – KP and Balochistan bore the major brunt of the terror attacks in the country.
It is unlikely that under Islamabad’s pressure and threats of causing disruptions in bilateral trade, the Taliban government would adopt harsh stance against TTP. It is obvious that Taliban government is looking to partner with other countries in order to reduce their dependency on Islamabad. Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government could be seen as a positive with regards to Taliban’s efforts towards finding new partners. If Pakistan wants to improve relations with Afghanistan, it must see the Taliban as an equal partner, and not a group which can be controlled by the ISI.
What is the Afghan refugee issue?
Pakistan’s federal government had come with a deadline of 31 March 2025 for all the 800,000 Afghan citizens who possessed Afghan Citizen Cards to leave the country. The interior ministry further warned that after the expiration of deadline, government would go ahead with forceful deportation. The move from the government resulted in distress among Afghan refugees who were waiting to be resettled in other countries. After the announcement from the government, close to two lakh Afghan citizens have returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan.
It is clear from the statements of the Pakistani government that Islamabad views housing of Afghan refugees as a big favor to their “Afghan brothers.” While this might be true, government’s threat to forcefully deport refugees, would further aggravate the anti-Pakistan sentiment among Afghan nationals. The step has backtracked years of hardships Pakistan had gone through to earn goodwill of Afghan nationals.
What is the likely future of Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan trilateral partnership?
In August 2024, the current PM of Uzbekistan Abdulla Aripov became one of the first head of the states to travel to Afghanistan, after Taliban took control over the country in 2021. During the visit, the two countries signed USD 2.5 billion worth agreements in “trade and investments.” A total of 35 MoUs were also signed during the visit. In October 2024, Uzbekistan appointed its envoy for Afghanistan.
On 25 February, PM Sharif embarked on a “two-day visit” to Uzbekistan. The two countries had then decided to enhance their bilateral trade volume to USD two billion. In June, to increase connectivity, flights were opened between Tashkent and Islamabad.
For the trilateral partnership to foster between Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is important that the UAP railway line project gets to see the light of the day. However, there is a possibility that the project might witness the same fate as that of gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan. Though Uzbekistan does not have sanctions imposed on it like Iran, the fragile economic situation in Pakistan could emerge as a challenge for completion of the project.
References:
“Interior Minister Naqvi discusses counterterrorism in Kabul meeting with Afghan counterpart,” Dawn, 20 July 2025
Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan upgrades ties with Afghanistan,” The Express Tribune, 31 May 2025
“Pakistani diplomat in Afghanistan granted rank of ambassador amid ‘improving ties,’” Dawn, 30 May 2025
Shahabullah Yousafzai, “Pak, China push regional shift with Afghanistan,” The Express Tribune, 11 May 2025
Tahir Khan, “Trilateral dialogue: Afghan Taliban govt seeks constructive engagement with Pakistan, China,” Dawn, 11 May 2025
Tahir Khan, “FM Dar says Afghan side told won’t allow each other’s soil to be used for terror,” Dawn, 19 April 2025
Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan ink rail project deal,” The Express Tribune, 18 July 2025
Umair Jamal, “Pakistan-Afghanistan Trade Grows Amid Security Challenges,” The Diplomat, 16 July 2025
Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan rises to second in Global Terrorism Index,” Dawn, 6 March 2025
“54 terrorists killed as infiltration attempt thwarted in KP: ISPR,” Dawn, 27 April 2025
Iftikhar A Khan, “March 31 deadline for Afghan citizen card holders to exit Pakistan,” Dawn, 8 March 2025
“200,000 Afghans left Pakistan since deportations renewed,” Dawn, 4 June 2025)
Catherine Putz, “Uzbekistan Forges Ahead, Deepening Relations With Taliban-ruled Afghanistan,” The Diplomat, 21 August 2024
“Uzbekistan Appoints Oybek Usmanov as New Ambassador to Afghanistan,” Kabul Now, 28 October 2024
“Pakistan and Uzbekistan agree to expand bilateral trade to $2bn,” Dawn, 26 February 2025
Imtiaz Ali, “Uzbekistan Airlines flies inaugural Pakistani route: PAA,” Dawn, 14 June 2025
“PM Shehbaz arrives in Uzbekistan on 2-day visit to boost bilateral ties,” Dawn, 25 February 2025
Sarah Zaman, “Pakistan hires 2 law firms to fight Iran's pipeline delay claim,” VOA, 5 November 2024
In Focus
Ishaq Dar- Marco Rubio meeting: Focus on bilateral trade, investment, and India-Pak relations
On 25 July, Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar held a meeting with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, DC. FM Dar expressed Pakistan’s willingness to “expand and stable” ties with the US. This was the first time that the two leaders met “face to face.” The meeting comes years after the erstwhile Joe Biden administration showed reluctance in engaging with Islamabad. The two leaders delved into the issues related to “trade, investment, counter-terrorism cooperation, and India-Pakistan ties.” FM Dar on his social media appreciated the alleged efforts put in by the US in achieving a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. He said, “The US role helped avert a potential nuclear confrontation and restored calm to a volatile region.” Rubio acknowledged Pakistan’s role in combating terrorism and claimed that Pakistan was a “constructive actor” working towards peace and stability in the region. Dar asserted that Pakistan is an “attractive destination” for US firms to invest. He also pointed out the urgent need for a “sustainable mechanism for conflict resolution” in South Asia, claiming that regional peace can only be ensured if New Delhi agrees to discuss all contentious matters, especially the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir.
Previously, US President Donald Trump appreciated Pakistan for detaining and handing over one of the main perpetrators of the Kabul Airport attack to the US. Previously, in June, President Trump held a one-to-one meeting with the Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, at the White House. (Anwar Iqbal, “Dar, Rubio discuss trade, investment, ties with India,” Dawn, 26 July 2025; Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan seeks 'stable relationship' with US,” The Express Tribune, 26 July 2025)
Monsoon crisis in Pakistan leads to loss of 266 lives
On 26 July, The News International reported that across Pakistan, 266 people, including 126 children, have lost their lives in monsoon-related incidents. Children were at greater risk due to school vacations. The national disaster agency said that the deaths have occurred due to electrocution, drowning, building collapse, and lightning strikes. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted a strong new monsoon spell beginning on 28 July, this spell will likely bring flash floods, urban inundation, and landslides across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Balochistan, and Sindh. The situation is expected to worsen with the arrival of a westerly weather system on 29 July, during which the monsoon activity is set to strengthen further. Water levels across key reservoirs and rivers in Pakistan show varying degrees of capacity and flood risk. Mangla Dam is currently at 54 per cent of its storage capacity, while Tarbela Dam stands at 79 per cent. The Indus River is experiencing low to medium-level flooding at multiple locations, whereas other major rivers, including the Chenab, Ravi, Jhelum, and Sutlej, are flowing at normal levels currently. A cloudburst also took place near Saiful Muluk Lake, triggering a landslide that stranded over 200 tourists. (Ag Afp & M Waqar Bhatti & Sher Ali, ”Half of 266 monsoon deaths are children: govt”, The News International, 26 July 2025
In Brief
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Rift widens within PTI over Salman Akram Raja’s role
On 26 July, The Express Tribune reported that several leaders from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Party are expressing diminished faith in the party's secretary general, Salman Akram Raja’s leadership. As PTI gears up for its 5 August protests, skepticism surrounding Raja’s role in the party organization has arisen due to Raja stating in multiple meetings that this is "not protest material". An important meeting of PTI’s political committee is also slated to be held today, but with Raja already leaving for Sindh, his absence is being seen as reducing the significance of the committee. Previously, a statement appeared from imprisoned PTI founder Imran Khan urging the party membership to keep in abeyance all internal divisions and provide undivided attention to build momentum for 5 August protests. Post the convictions in the 9 May case, the absence of senior PTI leadership has impacted the party's organizational activities. (Usama Iqbal, “PTI finalises protest plan”, The Express Tribune, 26 July 2025)
PM Sharif unveils Skills Impact bond to secure employability of youth
On 26 July, The Express Tribune reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has approved Pakistan’s first Skills Impact Bond, which is a "Pay-for-Success" model aimed at equipping youth with market-relevant skills and ensuring their employment. Under this model, public or donor funds will be disbursed only upon independently verified outcomes such as job creation or income generation. Sharif further directed that overseas employment training should be prioritized with youth being enabled to pursue learning the local languages of the countries where they are desirous of seeking employment in. Sharif affirmed the importance of spreading awareness about this programme through the Digital Youth Hub, which already has 500,000 registered users, 500 registered companies and more than 500 institutions, including Pakistani embassies abroad, government agencies and other Non-Governmental Organisations, including the United Nations are said to have joined the portal. Sharif also stated “There were more than 47,000 employment opportunities in Pakistan and more than 100,000 jobs were available abroad besides availability of more than 2,000 scholarships.” Sharif further affirmed that Pakistani youth are the country’s most valuable asset and by providing them employable education destiny of Pakistan can be transformed (“PM approves Skills Impact Bond for youth”, The Express Tribune, 26 July 2025)
JUDICIARY
Chief Justice of Pakistan reveals blueprint to protect district judges from external influences
On 26 July, Dawn reported that Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP)Yahya Afridi, while speaking at a symposium marking the International Day for Judicial Wellbeing, under the theme ‘The Human Dimension of Responsive Justice’ stated that a committee has been activated with the decision that each high court would develop specific guidelines for district judiciary members to follow when confronted with external pressures. In addition to providing defined directives on how the High Courts should respond to such situations, CJP mentioned that he had also requested the Chief Justices of the High Courts to consider including the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) in the response framework to ensure cohesive and robust institutional backing. CJP emphasized that the message must be unequivocal: the CJP will stand firmly in support of judicial officers who are “independent, honest, and committed to their duties”. CJP also mentioned some other reform measures initiated by the National Judicial Policy Making Committee (NJPMC), such as institutionalisation of arbitration. NJPMC also discussed guidelines for ethical incorporation of artificial intelligence. CJP also spoke about humanizing judicial reforms and adopting a grassroots-to-leadership approach in judicial affairs. (Nasir Iqbal “CJP Afridi unveils road map to empower district judiciary”, Dawn, 26 July 2025)
ECONOMY
Economic Coordination Committee approves housing subsidy
On 26 July, The News International reported that the Economic Coordination Committee (EEC) of the cabinet has approved a mark-up subsidy for 50,000 first homeowners, the total budgetary outlay approved for the scheme is PKR 71.98 billion for the 2025-2026 financial year. The scheme covers housing units up to 5 Marla (1360 sq flats) with no processing fees and prepayment penalties. The scheme will be supported by the Ministries of Finance, Planning, and the State Bank of Pakistan, offering subsidized fixed interest rates. The scheme will be managed by the Pakistan Housing Authority Foundation (PHAF). During the meeting, the EEC also endorsed policy aligned with National Tariff Policy 2025–30 to enhance export competitiveness, endorsed Pakistan’s green taxonomy, which involves boosting finance for sustainable projects, and approved a government guarantee of PKR 1 billion for issuance of Pakistan Skill Impact Bond (PSIB). (Mehtab Haider ”ECC okays Rs72bn subsidy for 50,000 housing units”, The News International, 26 July 2025
SOCIETY
Honor killing in Rawalpindi: Man murders wife for marrying another person
On 25 July, The Express Tribune reported on another incident of honor killing which took place in Rawalpindi. As per the police, the culprit had lodged a “missing person report” after his wife fled with “cash and jewelry.” Later, the culprit realized that his wife got married to another person. The Police informed that the culprit had forcefully brought his wife back and eventually murdered her. Some of the family members of the culprit were also involved in helping him commit the crime. Later, the culprit “buried” the victim's dead body in a close by area. Police came to know about the location of the burial after they interrogated a “local gravedigger.” (“Man allegedly kills wife for 'honour' in Pindi,” The Express Tribune, 25 July 2025)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan-Tajikistan look towards enhancing defence cooperation
On 25 July, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Sahir Shamshad Mirza, held a meeting with the Deputy Minister of Defence of Tajikistan, Major General Saizoda Bobojon Abdukodir, in Rawalpindi. The Deputy Minister of Defence of Tajikistan is also the chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Tajikistan. The two military leaders delved into issues related to “regional security” and bilateral “strategic interests.” The two sides underscored the importance of historical ties between the two countries and looked into possible areas where they could enhance “defence cooperation.” Major General Abdukodir appreciated the efforts put in by the Pakistani military in combating the threat of terrorism. (“Tajik deputy defence minister meets Gen Sahir Shamshad,” The News International, 26 July 2025)
|
