NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
In Focus
Pakistan, US seal trade deal focused on energy and market access
On 31 July, Pakistan arrived at a new trade agreement with US President Donald Trump. The agreement focuses on joint efforts to develop Pakistan’s substantial oil reserves and includes broader cooperation in energy, minerals, information technology, and crypto currency. It is expected to boost U.S. investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and expand bilateral market access.Trump confirmed the agreement on social media, stating "We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves.We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day". Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, after meetings with senior U.S. officials in Washington, confirmed the finalization of the agreement and highlighted the key role played by the private sector. In 2024, total U.S.-Pakistan trade reached USD 7.3 billion, with a USD 3 billion U.S. goods trade deficit. To address this, Pakistan has offered to increase imports of American goods. Meanwhile, negotiations on tariff arrangements are still ongoing, with Pakistan seeking terms similar to recent trade deals that the US made with countries like Japan and Vietnam, where tariffs range from 15 per cent to 20 per cent (Anwar Iqbal, “ US makes deal to tap Pakistan’s oil reserves,” Dawn, 31 July 2025; “ Pakistan wins pivotal US trade deal as India risks penalties over Russian oil imports,” The News International, 31 July 2025; “ Pakistan, US seal trade deal,” The Express Tribune, 31 July 2025)
Iranian President Pezeshkian to visit Pakistan to deepen bilateral ties
On 31 July, Dawn reported that Iranian President Dr Masoud Pezeshkian will arrive in Pakistan on 2 August for a two-day official trip, making this his first visit to the country. Invited by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pezeshkian will hold meetings with Pakistani leadership and engage with cultural and business figures in Islamabad. The visit aims to strengthen ties across political, economic, religious, and cultural arenas. Strengthening cooperation on the border and boosting bilateral trade are said to be key agendas for this visit. This is the second visit by an Iranian president to Pakistan in two years. Pakistan and Iran maintain close relations, evident during the Iran-Israel conflict when Pakistan expressed strong support for Iran. Previously, Shehbaz Sharif travelled to Tehran and expressed support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme. The two leaders also engaged during the 17th ECO Summit in Azerbaijan, further advancing their bilateral collaboration. (“ Iran’s Pezeshkian to visit Pakistan on Aug 2,” Dawn, 31 July 2025)
Gilgit Baltistan faces climate fallout as PMD sounds GLOF alarm
On 31 July, The News International and Dawn reported that the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued new Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) alerts for Gilgit Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, warning that severe weather may trigger flash floods, landslides, and further casualties. Scattered rains, thunderstorms, and isolated heavy showers are also forecasted, this will elevate the risk in glaciated regions like Kumrat and Dir. Authorities have ordered disaster response teams to stay on high alert and advised tourists to avoid high-altitude destinations such as Fairy Meadows and Babusar Top. In Ghizer district’s Ishkoman valley, a cloudburst on Wednesday caused devastating floods, destroying or damaging over 100 homes and dozens of shops, schools, and key infrastructure, including a power station. Extensive damage was also reported to farmland, water channels, and communication networks. Many families have been relocated, and officials are still assessing the total damage. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has restricted travel to high-risk areas and placed emergency teams on standby. Experts note that the region is facing a rise in climate-induced disasters like GLOFs and cloudbursts. ( “ GLOF alerts issued for Gilgit Baltistan, KP, ” The News International, 31 July 2025; “ Fresh flood rips through GB’s Ishkoman valley,” Dawn, 31 July 2025)
In Brief
POLITICS
National AI policy, Hajj reforms, and green building code unveiled by the cabinet
On 31 July, Dawn and The Express Tribune reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has unveiled Pakistan’s National Artificial Intelligence Policy, which aims to train one million professionals by 2030, creating 50,000 civic tech projects, developing 1,000 Artificially Intelligent products, and awarding 3,000 annual scholarships. It also ensures inclusion of women and persons with disabilities, promotes research, strengthens cyber security, and calls for the creation of an AI Council and Action Plan for implementation. The cabinet also announced the Hajj Policy 2026, which features a 70-30 quota split between the government and private sectors. It includes 1,000 hardship seats, third-party oversight, real-time payment tracking, and improved digital services for pilgrims, including SIM cards and mobile apps. The PM complimented efforts to digitize Hajj operations and prioritize service quality. In environmental governance, the cabinet approved the Green Building Code of Pakistan and rainwater harvesting provisions. These regulations apply to new multi-storey buildings, mandating green roofs, solar integration, and energy-efficient systems to enhance sustainability and water conservation. ( “ Cabinet approves national AI policy, targets 1m professionals by 2030," The Express Tribune, 31 July 2025), ( Syed Irfan Raza, “ Cabinet takes major decisions on Haj, AI, building codes, Dawn, 31 July 2025)
CM Gandapur calls armed forces “guests” after earlier criticism of Bajaur operation
On 31 July, Dawn reported that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s (KP) Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur appeared to have changed his position on armed forces' presence in the region due to the ongoing military operation in Bajaur. On 29 July, following the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) parliamentary meeting, Gandapur resolved to take strict measures such as the withdrawal of the Action in Aid of Civil Power Regulations 2011. He also stated that the KP assembly would evaluate whether the presence of the armed forces has been beneficial or whether it has deepened the mistrust between the forces and the local population. However, on 30 July, after a KP apex meeting, Gandapur stated that armed forces were here in the province at the behest of the government and that they should be treated as “guests”. Gandapur also spoke of militants’ tendency to seek cover in residential areas, which are then targeted by security personnel, leading to “collateral damage”. Gandapur’s shifted stance is at odds with PTI’s official position, which has criticized the offensive as a step that will “squander the hard-won peace” and lead to grave consequences for the incumbents and the country’s stability. (Umer Farooq, “ CM Gandapur changes his mind, ‘backs’ military action,” Dawn, 31 July 2025)
ECONOMY
FBR moves to resolve Gilgit-Baltistan tax dispute amid ongoing protests
On 31 July, Dawn reported that amid ongoing protests in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) over federal taxation on Chinese imports, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has constituted a seven-member committee to address local concerns. The demonstrations, now in their tenth day, have disrupted trade at the Sost Dry Port and along the Karakoram Highway, as traders demand exemption from sales, income, and excise taxes on goods brought in through the Khunjerab Pass for use within GB. The newly formed committee, comprising senior FBR officials and GB’s finance secretary, has been tasked with assessing the applicability of federal taxes in the region and recommending a clear framework for applying exemptions where appropriate. It will also propose safeguards against misuse of such exemptions, identify relevant codes, and estimate GB’s annual import needs based on national per capita benchmarks. Additionally, the committee will also review customs procedures at Sost to ensure that exempted goods are consumed locally. The committee will consult stakeholders and deliver its report within a week. (Jamil Nagri, “ FBR forms seven-member committee to settle GB tax issue,” Dawn, 31 July 2025 )
SBP cites economic gains, keeps policy rate at 11 per cent
On 31 July, The Express Tribune reported that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 11 per cent, pointing to stable inflation and encouraging signs of economic recovery. Current inflation is at 7.2 per cent, with the previous fiscal year averaging 4.5 per cent. Although a slight increase in core inflation is expected, both food and core inflation declined last year. Exports have risen by 4 per cent, and remittances grew by USD 8 billion, which in turn led to Pakistan’s first external account surplus in 14 years. Imports rose by 11 per cent, mainly due to increased economic activity. Economic growth is expected to range between 3.25 per cent and 4.25 per cent, led by improvements in agriculture, industry, and services, while external debt repayments total USD 25.9 billion. Foreign reserves now exceed USD 14 billion and are projected to rise further. (“SBP keeps interest rate at 11%,” The Express Tribune, 31 July 2025)
Editorials/Opinions from Pakistan
On Climate Change
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, "Pakistan’s changing climate," Dawn, 31 July 2025
THE ongoing floods paint a stark picture: the traditional monsoon system that has sustained the region for millennia is undergoing dramatic changes. Pakistan is at the epicentre of a climate transformation that is fundamentally altering the nature of monsoon rains and flood patterns across the country. No longer do the monsoons follow predictable patterns, locations, calendar and intensity.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1927738/pakistans-changing-climate
On Gender Laws
Abdullah Khalid, "Why gender laws need follow-up," The News International, 31 July 2025
In recent years, Pakistan has seen the passage of several progressive laws aimed at safeguarding women’s rights, laws that promise protection against violence, harassment at the workplace, equal participation and access to property. Yet, despite these well-intentioned efforts, a troubling question remains: why do these laws not translate into real-world impact for most Pakistani women?
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1332037-why-gender-laws-need-follow-up
On Arabeen travel ban
"Arbaeen travel ban," Dawn, 31 July 2025
In light of the difficulties that the state’s abrupt decision has created for Pakistani zaireen — that too at a time when the largest number of pilgrims heads to the holy sites in Iraq and Iran — the government must reconsider the land travel ban. It is true that many parts of Balochistan suffer from major security issues, and massacres have occurred in the province on a sectarian or ethnic basis.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1927728/arbaeen-travel-ban
On India
Durdana Najam, "Operation Mahadev and India's shifting role in South Asia," The Express Tribune, 31 July 2025
India recently launched Operation Mahadev in Lidwas, near Srinagar, targeting militants allegedly involved in the April 22 Pahalgam attack. While the government called it a success, there is still no verified evidence linking those killed to the Pahalgam attack. This recurring gap between military actions and verifiable outcomes is eroding India's credibility, both domestically and internationally.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2558737/operation-mahadev-and-indias-shifting-role-in-south-asia
"Modi narrative: no takers," The Express Tribune, 31 July 2025
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being slapped around by friends and foes alike, perhaps for the first time in his premiership. A parliamentary debate on Tuesday quickly saw the Modi government's propaganda around the Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor crumble, as Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi and others slammed Modi's use of India's military for political optics and the disinformation campaign about all aspects of the war, which has made India's foreign ministry and media into laughing stocks.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2558733/modi-narrative-no-takers