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In Focus
Defence Ministry confirms airstrikes inside Afghanistan during the recent clashes
On 22 October, The News International reported that Defence Minister Khawaja Asif publicly confirmed Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan, which was the first official recognition of cross-border activity amidst rising tensions between the two countries. The airstrikes aimed at Pakistani TTP militants who were reportedly based in Kabul, Kandahar, and other cities, after a strike killed 11 Pakistani soldiers in Afghanistan earlier in October.
The acknowledgement follows a period of ambiguity where Islamabad did not clearly admit to Afghan assertions that civilians had been killed. Instead, in a statement, Asif turned the operations into premeditated counterterrorism activity and asserted the TTP leadership was “housed” in Afghanistan. The entry also coincides with numerous discussions ongoing in Doha and Istanbul, where Türkiye and Qatar have offered to mediate and act as guarantors to ensure cross-border hostilities will not recur.
This latest conflict documented airstrikes, retaliatory raids, and at least 23 deaths among Pakistani military personnel, marking the most serious escalation in tensions with the Taliban regime since 2021. Asif's comments indicate a harder line from Islamabad and a step away from an earlier policy of restraint, indicating an evolving security dilemma in South Asia as counterterrorism imperatives continue to increase against disputes over sovereignty. (Minister confirms airstrikes in Kabul, other cities during recent conflict, The News International, 22 October 2025)
IMF's GDP growth forecast at 3.6 per cent amidst flood and fiscal risks
On 22 October, The News International reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast upward to 3.6 per cent for the current fiscal year, while warning that severe flooding in the third quarter could derail progress by affecting growth, inflation, and the current account. The upgrade was published in the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for the Middle East and Central Asia released this week.
According to the report, Pakistan’s economic performance showed resilience despite global uncertainty and domestic fiscal pressures. Inflation had eased significantly in 2025, reflecting declines in food and energy prices, but was projected to rise again in 2026 as energy subsidies were gradually withdrawn and price levels normalised. The IMF forecast GDP growth at 3.6 per cent in 2026 as well, supported by ongoing structural reforms, improved financial conditions, and restored investor confidence.
The Fund underscored that oil-importing economies in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region were set to improve their cyclically adjusted primary fiscal balances through better tax mobilisation and energy-subsidy containment. In Pakistan’s case, these measures were expected to strengthen fiscal discipline and expand fiscal space for social spending.
However, the IMF cautioned that higher borrowing costs, coupled with large gross financing needs and sovereign-bank linkages, posed risks to financial stability. It stressed that flood-related disruptions could also exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine external balances if reconstruction costs rose sharply.
The REO emphasised that since 2020, the Fund had extended USD 55.7 billion in financial assistance to countries in the MENAP and Caucasus-Central Asia regions, including USD 21.4 billion since early 2024 for programmes in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Pakistan. It also delivered over 385 capacity-development projects worth USD 36.8 million to strengthen macroeconomic management.
Overall, the IMF advised Pakistan to maintain fiscal prudence, accelerate structural reforms, and enhance climate resilience to sustain recovery momentum and safeguard macroeconomic stability amid ongoing regional and global uncertainties. (Mehtab Haider, "IMF raises Pakistan’s growth forecast to 3.6pc amid flood risks," The News International, 22 October 2025) ("IMF / Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia Press Briefing," IMF Media Center, 17 October 2025)
PML-N withdraws from PoK government, opts for opposition role
On 22 October, The News International reported on the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) formally announcing its withdrawal from the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) government, choosing instead to sit on the opposition benches. The decision was confirmed by PML-N AJK President Shah Ghulam Qadir, who stated that the party would not support any new coalition government or participate in what he termed “unnatural or forced political arrangements.”
Speaking at a press briefing, Qadir clarified that if the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) decided to move a no-confidence motion against the incumbent government, it would be considered a democratic right, but the PML-N would remain neutral and not join any resulting government. He emphasised that the party’s focus would now be on playing the role of a constructive opposition, ensuring accountability while prioritising the welfare of refugees and overseas Kashmiris.
Qadir further warned that disciplinary action would be taken against any PML-N member who defied the party’s official stance. He reiterated the party’s belief that only transparent and inclusive general elections could bring stability to PoK’s political landscape. The PML-N, he said, would campaign actively under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif and Shehbaz Sharif to secure a legitimate and popular mandate in the next elections.
The decision marks a significant shift in PoK’s political dynamics, potentially paving the way for a power contest between the PPP and other opposition groups. Qadir’s remarks also hinted at discontent over recent political manoeuvrings and alliances that, according to the PML-N, compromised the autonomy of democratic processes in the region.
Observers view the PML-N’s move as an attempt to consolidate its political identity and prepare for upcoming elections by distancing itself from contentious governance decisions. As PoK continues to grapple with constitutional and administrative challenges, the PML-N’s transition to opposition could reshape the political balance, intensifying competition while testing the stability of the current government. ("PMLN announces split from AJK govt," The News International, 22 October 2025)
In Brief
POLITICS
Ulema Council moves to combat religious extremism through Paigham-e-Pakistan
On 22 October, The News International reported that the Pakistan Ulema Council decided to implement Paigham-e-Pakistan. The Council aims to eliminate political and religious extremism in Pakistan. As Pakistan hosts around 600,000 mosques and over 36,000 religious seminaries as per the Economic census, the council has to take measures at all levels to make mosques the centre to eliminate religious extremism.
In a joint declaration, a convention held in collaboration with the Pakistan Ulema Council and Jannatul Ulema Pakistan, religious scholars of all schools of thought give fatwas regarding the entry of terrorists from Afghanistan into Pakistan. The joint statement also criticised the Muridke incident and said it was the responsibility of leaders and the government to investigate the case. It also stated its goal to establish an independent and sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. A 50-member delegation of Ulema and Mashaikh from all schools of thought will meet the President, Deputy Prime Minister, Chief of Army Staff, and Chief Ministers and Governors to showcase to them a plan. (“Mosques to be made centre to curb extremism, violence," The News International, 22 October 2025)
HRCP flags rising extrajudicial killings in Punjab
On 22 October, The News International reported that police encounters have increased staggeringly this year in Pakistan, particularly in Punjab Province. According to the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), since January 2025, Punjab has witnessed more than 500 encounters. It also noted that this pattern was entrenched with the formation of the Crime Control Department as a special wing of the Punjab Police in February 2025. In Punjab province, extrajudicial killings are not a new phenomenon; even during PTI’s rule in Punjab (2018-2022), there were 612 such killings. HRCP criticised this rise in extrajudicial killings as a violation of fundamental rights, including the right to due process, fair trial, and life itself.
An editorial in The News International stated that although the criminal justice system in Pakistan may be slow and flawed, the police must not bypass the legal process. True justice requires a process, evidence, and accountability. The Punjab government must review the alleged extrajudicial interventions and strengthen the oversight over all police operations. (“No shortcut to justice," The News International, 22 October 2025)
Punjab intensifies crackdown on TLP
On 22 October, The Express Tribune reported that the Punjab government has identified 3800 national and international bank accounts and frozen 95 bank accounts linked to Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan and its chief, Saad Rizvi. Property in the name of Saad Rizvi is also being sealed. A substantial quantity of gold and cash has been recovered at the residence of TLP Chief Saad Rizvi. The Punjab government had taken control of 330 mosques associated with TLP and placed them under the Auqaf department. Also, the government claimed that six of the TLP seminaries were built on government-owned land. Any student involved with TLP will be denied university admissions, visas and any state facility. A crackdown is underway against all three tiers of TLP. (“TLP funders, supporters to face terrorism charges - Pakistan," Dawn, 22 October 2025) (“Crackdown widens as Punjab freezes 91 TLP-linked bank accounts,"The Express Tribune, 22 October 2025)
ECP backtracks on Punjab local government polls
On 22 October, Dawn reported that the Election Commission of Pakistan withdrew the delimitation schedule, issued under a 2022 local government law, further delaying the local government elections in Punjab. Earlier, on 8 October, the ECP ordered local government polls in December and asked Punjab to complete the delimitation exercise within two months. However, the Chief Election Commissioner reversed this order, as the Punjab government has passed the Punjab Local Government Act 2025. The delimitation exercise has been halted, and the plan to hold local government elections in Punjab province in December has been dropped. This decision could lead to an indefinite delay, as there are no constitutional compulsion under Article 140-A. (“ECP backtracks on Punjab local govt polls - Pakistan," Dawn, 22 October 2025)
Editorials/Opinions
Sam Waldock, "Every flood is a warning," The News International, 22 October 2025
"Over 1,000 lives lost, over 1,000 injured and some seven million people affected — that is the reality of this year's floods in Pakistan. Even now when the floodwaters are receding, the crisis is far from over. Nearly 3,000 kilometres of roads, over 750 bridges and around 230,000 homes have been partially or completely destroyed. Recovery does not, and will not, happen overnight. It must be a sustained effort that goes on well after the floods stop dominating the headlines. But we must be honest: humanitarian aid alone is not enough. Without urgent adaptation, up to 400 million people could be displaced, millions of livelihoods destroyed and vulnerable groups pushed deeper into poverty and exclusion. Let us not treat these floods as just another disaster. Let them be a turning point — a moment when we all decide to act for a safer, more sustainable future."
Hina Ayra, "The unquiet frontier," The News International, 22 October 2025
"For too long, Pakistan has endured the illusion that diplomacy alone could secure peace along its western frontier. The recent Pakistan–Afghanistan border clashes have merely torn that illusion apart. These are not impulsive exchanges of fire but the slow eruption of an exhausted patience — years of appeasement, restraint, and misplaced faith in a regime that thrives on denial. The October 2025 TTP assault on Pakistan’s border posts in Orakzai and D.I. Khan, killing 12 soldiers including senior officers, was not an isolated act of terror; it was an act of war by proxy. Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes were calibrated, not reckless — a necessary reassertion of sovereignty long taken for granted. The Durand Line today is not just a fault line between two nations but a test of regional maturity. Unless Kabul rethinks its defiance and regional powers stop playing double games, the frontier will remain unquiet and the fires that begin in the mountains of Khost and Kurram could one day engulf the entire region."
"No shortcut to justice," The News International, 22 October 2025
"The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has raised serious concern over the growing normalisation of what are being alleged as police encounters in Punjab. According to the HRCP, Punjab has witnessed more than 500 suspected encounters since January 2025, claiming over 670 lives – more than in any other province. While all chief ministers would understandably like to see a province free of crime, the method by which this goal is pursued matters deeply. Extrajudicial killings are a blatant violation of fundamental rights, including the right to due process, fair trial and life itself. There is no such thing as quick justice; true justice requires process, evidence and accountability. Crimes go down not when laws are broken by those meant to enforce them, but when laws are upheld. Justice cannot be built on bloodstained shortcuts."
"Blame solves little," Dawn, 22 October 2025
"As lives continue to be lost in Pakistan’s renewed battle against terrorism and violent extremism, the role played by the national leadership has left much to be desired. Representatives of the state and the federation have blamed KP’s political leadership for much that ails the country with respect to the deteriorating national security situation. On the other hand, the civilian leadership of KP, as well as the leader of the party that runs it, have chosen to take their own hard-line stance against the federal government and the state. All that this finger-pointing has achieved is to needlessly politicise a highly sensitive issue for Pakistan. It is high time for the federation to call a ‘ceasefire’ on its internal strife and for its political rivals to do the same. One cannot keep repeating mistakes and expecting different results."
Zahid Hussain, "A line of contention," Dawn, 22 October 2025
"While the ceasefire agreement might have brought down hostilities and the borders reopened after the weeklong fierce fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the situation remains extremely volatile. The Afghan Taliban leaders continue to insist that the border between the two countries, also known as the Durand Line, is ‘imaginary’, and question its legitimacy. The current Taliban administration has raised the Durand Line issue far more aggressively, using Afghan nationalism to divert international scrutiny from its patronage of transnational militant groups. Although the Taliban administration has agreed to a ceasefire, there’s no indication yet that it would be willing to take action against the TTP that it considers its jihadi brethren. Nevertheless, Islamabad should exercise prudence. It is not in the interest of a country facing internal and external challenges to escalate the situation. It was certainly a wise decision to agree to a ceasefire and sit at the negotiating table."
Arifa Noor, "Too many battlefronts," Dawn, 21 October 2025
"It seems as if the time for playing nice is over and if the terrorist attacks in Pakistan continue, Islamabad will inflict pain on Afghanistan to change its big, bad ways. Picking so many battles leaves the state in a mode of crisis management all the time. Between the crackdowns on the people, parties, rights movements, militants and angry neighbours, it is difficult not to wonder whether the tough posturing or the effort at shaping a hard state may also be one that is overstretched. At odds with forces within as well as enemies without, what if the burden proves too much? There is a price to be paid for this tough posturing. And what it really cost the hapless people of Pakistan will continue to be calculated for long after this period is over."
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