Photo : Al Jazeera
NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Al Jazeera
In Focus
Punjab moves to ban TLP after Muridke violence, launches province-wide crackdown
On 17 October, Dawn, The Express Tribune, and The News International reported that the Punjab government has decided to formally propose a ban to the Center on Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) in the wake of the group’s violent protests in Muridke earlier this week. The decision was made in a high-level meeting chaired by Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz, and is the most severe conflict between the PML-N government and the Barelvi hardline movement since 2021.
Officials have advised that Punjab will convey to the Center to enforce TLP’s ban under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), put its leadership under the Fourth Schedule, with the intention to transfer the party's properties and assets to the Auqaf Department. Authorities will freeze TLP’s bank accounts, prevent all public displays of TLP’s symbols, and disable social media pages that are posting hate speech. The Home Department issued a Section 144 in the province to restrict gatherings and has imposed a 10-day ban on all processions.
Security officials pick up on an expansive crackdown in Punjab, making use of AI-based tracking through Safe City cameras. 42,000 forces have been deployed (12,000 of which are undercover). More than 3,400 arrests have been made. The police have also registered over 300 cases of terrorism, arresting hundreds of suspects in Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Gujranwala.
Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Information Minister Attaullah Tarar informed that the operation against the TLP “anarchists” would continue, asserting that the TLP was inciting armed demonstrations by leveraging public outrage over Gaza. The ministers stated that charges would be filed in anti-terrorism courts against those believed responsible for killing a police officer and injuring more than 40 police personnel.
The TLP’s status as a proscribed outfit has followed a familiar pattern: it was banned in April 2021 but was again granted status as a political party several months later after negotiations. Whether this new ban will last depends on federal approval, judicial support, and the Punjab government’s ability to balance security enforcement with religious sensitivities.
Temporary ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan
On 15 October, Cross-border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan came to pause after both sides agreed to a temporary ceasefire, following days of deadly and intense clashes in multiple locations. This is the second ceasefire between the two countries since clashes erupted on 11 October that left dozens of dead on both sides.
Afghanistan retaliation comes after Pakistan has violated the Afghan airspace sovereignty on 9 October. Both countries claimed that Ceasefire was requested by the other and neither side disclosed any external country’s role in Ceasefire. It will be implemented on mutual consent, and would remain in force ‘unless there is a violation’.
Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari called out Afghanistan Government for violating the Doha accord that led to withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan in 2021. He also said that Afghanistan failed to establish an inclusive government. Also, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif showcased a lack of confidence in 48 hour ceasefire, and speculated the role of Saudi Arabia under mutual defence pact in current clashes.
On 14 October, Afghanistan forces attacked Pakistani post in the Sui Karez area of Kozak pass and border town of Chaman. Whereas Pakistani jets targeted camps used by banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). During ceasefire period, both parties are are needed to make sincere efforts find out a way through dialogue.
In Brief
POLITICS
KP CM Afridi denied meeting with Imran at Adiala jail
On 17 October, Dawn reported that the newly elected Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Afridi, was not allowed to meet PTI Founder Imran Khan at Adiala Jail. KP’s new Chief Minister Sohail Afridi has surpassed the majority mark during the CM election session in the assembly, showcasing the PTI's stronghold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. CM Sohail Afridi will decide on the cabinet after consulting with PTI Chairman Imran Khan. He has officially informed the Punjab government and jail authorities in advance but was denied to meet him even after waiting for two hours outside the premises. He would attempt again to meet him in the coming days. Also, the hearing of cases against CM Afridi is going on in the Peshawar High Court, although he has been granted protective bail until the next hearing.
“KP CM Afridi denied meeting with Imran at Adiala jail”, Dawn , 17 October 2025)
Punjab seeks a ban on TLP
On 17 October, Dawn reported that, as a crackdown on Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) is going on by the Punjab Police, the Punjab government has decided to approach the Centre to ban the radical outfit. Following the Muridke crackdown, which has led to the deaths of hundreds of TLP supporters, most of the TLP leaders have now gone underground. Punjab authorities have apprehended the plans of TLP after Friday prayers to stage a violent protest, attacking government infrastructure and law enforcement agencies. Punjab Police senior command had formulated a plan to arrest the senior leadership of the TLP. The Punjab province CM has decided to place the Extremist Party’s leadership in the Fourth Schedule of the Anti-Terrorism Act.
(“ Punjab seeks ban on TLP after violent protest”, Dawn, 17 October 2025)
Sohail Afridi sworn in as KP chief minister amid PTI chants
On 16 October, The Express Tribune reported that PTI's Sohail Afridi was sworn in as the new chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at the Governor House in Peshawar, after a Peshawar High Court ruling instructed Governor Faisal Karim Kundi to do so by 4:00 PM. The ceremony was disrupted when PTI supporters surrounded the dais chanting slogans for Imran Khan, and began taking over the ceremony. Afridi's oath of office was also clouded by controversy over Ali Amin Gandapur's resignation as chief minister, which the former chief minister contested. The opposition walked out prior to the vote of the new chief minister, while members of the PTI considered the ruling a political victory, and excitedly celebrated. (Cheers and chants as Sohail Afridi takes K-P helm, The Express Tribune, 16 October 2025)
Punjab moves to neutralize TLP
On 16 October, Dawn reported that Punjab government’s crackdown on Tehreek- i- Labaaik Pakistan (TLP) protests which led to deaths of hundreds of TLP workers and supporters, will be intensified as authorities decided to take a series of measures to neutralize the TLP group. The Punjab police arrested more than 2700 people during the recent crackdown operation on TLP supporters in Muridke. In reaction to this, TLP supporters took to the streets and allegedly stormed the riverine police post ‘Bait Cheen Wala’. An Anti terrorism court also granted physical remand of TLP workers in cases related to attacks on police. Law enforcers have also raided the TLP leader Hafiz HussainRizvi’s house in a money laundering probe. Punjab Government decided to leash down the TLP as the outfit's continuous record of violent agitations, attacks of law enforcers, and targeting of Christian and Ahmediayys places of worship tainted large. Authorities believe that it becomes crucial to penalize the TLP which provoke youth in the name of religion.
(“Punjab cracks down on TLP activists”, The Express Tribune, 16 October 2025)
(“ Punjab looks to `neutralise` TLP”, Dawn, 16 October 2025)
EXTERNAL
Afghan cargo movement suspended
On 17 October, Dawn reported that movement of Afghan Transit Trade (ATT)cargo has been halted by the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI). Also, bilateral trade at all four border crossings between the two neighbours, including Chaman, Torkham, Kharlachi, and Gulam Khan, has been suspended for the past five days following clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. All traders are informed and advised to offload perishable goods in warehouses or sell them locally that are destined for Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. The halt impacted daily ATT cargo movement, which used to be approximately 1,000 containers. Meanwhile, PAJCCI has already expressed concern over declining trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which slipped to USD 1 billion. Particularly at Torkham, due to the imposition of the Infrastructure Development Cess, the container traffic at Torkham had declined sharply from almost 6500 containers per day to just a few hundred.
(“ Afghan cargo movement suspended”, Dawn, 17 October 2025)
SECURITY
Punjab to introduce ‘whistleblower system’ for undocumented foreigners
On 17 October, Dawn reported that in a bid to deport remaining Afghan nationals residing illegally in the Punjab Province, the Punjab government has decided to introduce a ”whistleblower system.” Under the Whistleblower System, the name of the informant will be kept confidential. Afghan citizens will also be brought under the tax net, and their undocumented businesses will be found out; a real-time database of ‘illegal Afghan residents’ will also be set up. A drive to expel millions of Afghan nationals with proof of registration who were living legally in Pakistan was already initiated by the federal government in September. The Punjab government, focusing on illegal arms, also requested the federal government to regularize arms factories and manufacturers.
(Punjab to introduce `whistle-blower system` for undocumented foreigners, Dawn, 17 October 2025)
ECONOMY
SBP projects GDP growth at 3.25 per cent in FY26
On 17 October, The Express Tribune reported that the State Bank of Pakistan published its Annual Report on State of the Economy 2024-25. SBP projects FY 26 growth at 3.25- 4.25 per cent, with expected inflation to be around 5-7 per cent and current account deficit is projected at 0-1 per cent of GDP. However, Central Bank cautioned that flood losses, high energy prices, and global trade uncertainty with supply chain disruptions will impact the gains. Report also identifies that low domestic savings is major hurdle which is due to low per capita income, high inflation, fiscal imbalance and weak finances. As GDP is highly dependent on consumption driven by remittances and borrowing, constituting around 92 per cent of GDP have impacted productive investment. As a result, SBP observes that "Pakistan's economy remains predominantly consumption-oriented, with potential GDP growth declining steadily over the last two decades."
(“Debt, climate risks hurt economy, The Express Tribune, 17 October 2025)
(“SBP projects 3.25pc growth in FY26, Dawn, 17 October 2025)
IMF approves USD 1.2 billion for Pakistan after staff-level deal
On 16 October, The Express Tribune announced that a staff-level deal had finally been struck between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan, unlocking USD 1.2 billion of much-awaited funding disbursements from Pakistan's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). As part of a condition of the staff-level agreement, Pakistan had reaffirmed that it would stick to its fiscal goals from prior to the floods and the IMF expects a delayed governance and corruption report will be published by mid-November. The IMF acknowledged Pakistan's improvement on developing macroeconomic stability, normalized access to electricity and a reduction in economic activity due to flooding and revenue shortfalls and current issues with governance. The hope is that the IMF staff-level agreement will restore confidence in markets ahead of approval by the IMF Board. (IMF unlocks $1.2b after govt revisits pre-flood pledges, The Express Tribune, 16 October 2025)
Textile exports fall for second month
On 16 October, Dawn reported that Pakistan has faced a second consecutive month of negative growth in textile exports. Textile exports fell by 1.99 per cent in September, whereas 7.34 per cent declined in August. In September 2025, textiles exports dropped to USD 1.57 billion from USD 1.61 billion in September 2024. Particularly, Cotton exports saw a significant decline, highlighting concerns of rising cost of doing business in Pakistan. The textile sector’s performance hit hard despite Pakistan’s USD 25 billion installed capacity. Also, fall in oil imports is visible as oil import bill showed a negative growth of 6.97 percent in the first quarter of FY26.
(“Textile exports fall for second month”, Dawn, 16 October 2025)
Editorials/Opinions
Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, "KP shows the way," Dawn, 17 October 2025
"For most of Pakistan’s existence, its elites and the institutions they dominate have governed, controlled, deceived, robbed, and suppressed its people. They continue to do so. Instead of being servants of the people, they have become their masters. As such, they are the principal obstacle in the way of the development of the country, including the rights and freedoms its people are guaranteed by the Constitution of Pakistan. And yet a ray of sunlight seems to break through the dark clouds over the country in the shape of a courageous and defiant person considered too young, too poor, and too honest to be the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We are at a ‘to be or not to be’ moment in which common moral sense must prevail. Accordingly, the people’s mandate of Feb 8, 2024, must be restored. Only then can the Quaid’s Pakistan be progressively restored in friendship and cooperation with Bangladesh, and maybe eventually, principled accommodation with India."
"Spiralling conflict," Editorial, Dawn, 17 October 2025
"WITH at least three major cross-border clashes within a week, there is an urgent need to address the core issues affecting Pak-Afghan ties and prevent the situation from transforming into a full-blown conflict. While the nation must be defended against foreign aggression, a long-term conflict against Afghanistan should be eschewed. Hence, a conflict with the Afghan Taliban will only benefit India. For Pakistan, the best option in these difficult circumstances appears to be to coordinate a response with regional allies, including China. What is beyond doubt is that unless the threat of terrorist groups present in Afghanistan is addressed, the whole region will suffer, not just Pakistan."
F.S. Aijazuddin, "The womb of war," Dawn, 16 October 2025
"Wars should be stillborn. They enter the world and, like delinquents, they cause disruption, chaos, and mayhem. And when wars end, as they do so abruptly and painfully, survivors lament that such wars should never have been born. Throughout the history of mankind — and man has fought more damaging conflicts than any other species on earth — wars have shown that they are inherently barren. They cannot birth peace. Peace is conceived artificially, through intellectual insemination. In Trump’s lexicon, war is the necessary cost of a lasting peace on earth — or what may be left of earth."
Khurram Husain, "Withering geoeconomics," Dawn, 16 October 2025
"It was almost exactly three years ago that a paper was published by Moeed Yusuf and Rabia Akhtar arguing in favour of a pivot away from geopolitics towards geoeconomics as Pakistan’s primary external orientation. The paper argued that a sound economic footing built on domestic reform is the key to securing Pakistan’s future. Sadly, the advice seems to have generated little more than chatter and ample nodding of heads, with little to no impact on policy. All signs are now pointing in the direction of yet another incoming geopolitical rent. The specifics are unknown, but Pakistan’s rulers seem to be busy securing for themselves one more round of security-related inflows of exactly the sort that the authors of that paper said Pakistan needs to depart from."