NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
In Focus
The third round of the Af-Pak talks in Istanbul today
On 6 November, delegations from Afghanistan and Pakistan are meeting in Istanbul for the second time in the last ten days. The previous round of talks between the two countries took place in Istanbul during the last week of October 2025.
During the second round in Istanbul, the initial discussions failed to yield a consensus, and the negotiations nearly broke down. However, in the last minute, Turkey managed to bring the two countries back to the negotiation table and even made them agree to a joint statement. According to the joint statement, both have agreed to continue the ceasefire agreed in Doha, and to “place a monitoring and verification mechanism” that would “ensure maintenance of peace and imposing penalty on the violating body.” Pakistan wanted an assurance from Kabul that the latter would not allow the TTP to operate on Afghan soil.
In the third round, which begins in Istanbul today (6 November), Pakistan’s agenda will be to pressurise Afghanistan to withdraw its political support for the TTP in a statement and ensure that Kabul pursues a proactive strategy to dismantle what Islamabad considers the TTP’s training camps and safe havens. Pakistan also wants a verifiable mechanism along the border. On the other hand, the Taliban would want Pakistan not to carry out any military strikes in the Afghan territory, and close the border points unilaterally, preventing the movement of people and goods.
The first round of talks was held in Doha in October. Turkey and Qatar have been mediating the negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, after the air strikes by the former inside the latter’s territory, and subsequently an attack by the latter on the former's border posts, leading to violent military clashes between the two countries. (“
the two countries. (“Mediators in Istanbul for third round of talks,” Dawn, 6 November 2025; “Make or break talks: Pakistan, Afghan Taliban to meet in Istanbul today,” The Express Tribune, 6 November 2025)
Pakistan has “the highest share of inefficient agricultural water consumption under drying conditions”: World Bank report
On 6 November, a Dawn article discussed findings from a World Bank report named “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future,” which highlights the growing overlap between inefficient water use and declining freshwater availability. The study reveals that approximately one-quarter of inefficient water consumption in rain-fed agriculture and one-third in irrigated farming occurs in regions experiencing pronounced drying trends. These hotspots are most common in Western Asia, Eastern Europe, and North Africa. At the national level, the highest inefficiencies under drying conditions are found in Algeria, Cambodia, Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, Tunisia, and Romania. Drawing on two decades of satellite data and advanced modelling, the report provides a comprehensive assessment of how agricultural and land management practices are influencing global water security today.
Over the past twenty years, global agriculture has increasingly shifted toward more water-intensive crops. Among countries experiencing drying, 37 have adopted such practices, including 22 located in arid or semi-arid zones. This transition, along with continued inefficiency, has significantly raised water demand in already stressed regions. A key point to note is that over two-thirds of inefficient irrigation in dry areas is attributed to water-intensive crop cultivation, highlighting the need for more sustainable and region-specific agricultural strategies.
The report further estimates that the planet is losing around 324 billion cubic metres of freshwater annually, which could meet the basic needs of 280 million people. These losses stem from worsening droughts and unsustainable human activities, including deforestation, wetland degradation, and inadequate policy frameworks, such as ineffective pricing and weak institutional coordination. Since 2000, global water use has increased by 25 per cent, with nearly one-third of this growth occurring in areas already facing drying trends. The findings showcase the immediate need for integrating efficient water use, smart crop selection, and strong governance to ensure freshwater sustainability in the long run. (Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan among nations using water ‘inefficiently’,” Dawn, 6 November 2025)
Opposition protests proposed 27th Constitutional Amendment
On 6 November, The Express Tribune reported that opposition lawmakers staunchly resisted the proposed 27th Constitutional Amendment bill at the National Assembly. Speaking at the lower house of the parliament, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan condemned the proposed amendments to the 1973 Constitution as “an attack on the Parliament,” and vowed that his party would continue to resist the bill. He recalled the controversy surrounding the proposal for the 26th Constitutional Amendment, stating that the PTI, along with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, had made "great efforts" to block it. Gohar described the 27th Amendment as “against the spirit of this House and the Constitution,” cautioning that the country could not afford further divisions. He reminded the deputy speaker that the 18th Amendment, enacted in 2010, had been passed “with consensus and in unity with the people,” but that “the people have no faith in the courts." Addressing the treasury benches, he added that “this is a time when the nation is divided; tensions are running high, terrorism is on the rise, the [trade] deficit is rising, and people cannot bear further problems. Please, be concerned about Pakistan's security.”
Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Dr Tariq Fazal Chaudhry dismissed the opposition's cautions on the rollback of the 18th Amendment as "false and misleading propaganda." He assured that neither the ruling party nor the Prime Minister had any intention of reversing the 18th Amendment. "Let me make it absolutely clear — there is no move to roll back the 18th Amendment through the 27th Amendment. Such politically motivated propaganda must stop," he asserted. He also clarified that the deliberations on the proposed amendment were still preliminary as the official draft had not yet been presented in the National Assembly, urging the members to share their concerns over the bill “once the document is formally tabled.” Chaudhry added that the government believed in dialogue, not confrontation. “We are committed to strengthening the federation and promoting unity among all provinces. No step will be taken that weakens national harmony,” he said. He added that “Consensus is desirable, but constitutionally, amendments are passed with a two-thirds majority."
JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman also cautioned that the Constitution must not be turned into a "plaything". Following a meeting with Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party chief Mahmood Khan Achakzai, he warned that coercive constitutional changes would erode public trust, adding that the opposition had yet to receive the draft of the 27th Amendment but would formulate a collective position once it was shared. PTI leader Asad Qaiser told reporters that the opposition would adopt a united stance in parliament and devise a joint strategy. He thanked Fazlur Rehman for his support for Achakzai and urged that his notification as opposition leader be issued without delay. (“Opposition sees red over 27th amendment,” The Express Tribune, 6 November 2025)
In Brief
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Defence Minister seeks clarity over consensus on Constitutional Amendment
On 6 November, Dawn reported that Defence Minister Khawaja Asif demands clarity on a consensus over the proposed 27th Constitutional Amendment within two to three days, after which the legislation is likely to be tabled in parliament. He stated that deliberations on amending Article 243 on the governance of the armed forces are underway, stressing that the discussions are essential because the “defence requirements have changed.” Article 243 of the Constitution empowers the federal government to “have control and command of the armed forces” and stipulates that “the supreme command of the armed forces shall vest in the president.”
Responding to the opposition at the National Assembly, Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Tariq Fazal Chaudhry clarified that there was no plan to assume control of provincial educational institutions or boards. “We are only discussing the introduction of a uniform syllabus,” he said. The minister reiterated that no action would be taken that undermines the federation, the provinces, or their mutual relationship. “The objective is to improve governance, strengthen defence, and reinforce ties between the federation and the provinces,” he added. (“27th Amendment may be tabled next week,” Dawn, 6 November 2025)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Pakistan to submit a proposal at COP30 for USD 20 million to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage
On 6 November, Dawn reported that Pakistan plans to submit project proposals to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) at COP30. Three years after its launch at COP27, the Fund holds USD 300 million, with an additional USD 700 million pledged, far below the scale of climate-related losses, says the news report. Although designed as a rapid-response mechanism, it is to release any funds. Pakistan’s Climate Minister confirmed that the country has not received assistance despite severe climate damages. He stated that the FRLD is set to operationalise USD 250 million this year, half is reserved for Small Island and Least-Developed States, leaving roughly USD 100–150 million for others, including Pakistan. He said Pakistan plans to submit proposals worth up to USD 20 million, without revealing much details. Further, the Minister criticised the Global North for shifting responsibility to developing nations despite their historical emissions. He said bureaucratic delays and hypocrisy hinder climate talks and the purpose of the fund. The minister added that Pakistan would pursue all available opportunities to access funds and advocate for fair, efficient, and less bureaucratic climate financing. Meanwhile, an FRLD board member advised Pakistan to act proactively by appointing a national authority, developing a unified national policy, and involving provinces. Such steps, he said, would signal political commitment and strengthen Pakistan’s case for accessing the fund’s limited resources. (Zaki Abbas, “Pakistan to tap Loss & Damage fund despite reservations,” Dawn, 6 November 2025)
ECONOMY
Pakistan’s power sector circular debt reaches PKR 1.693 trillion in the first quarter
On 6 November, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s power sector circular debt increased by PKR 79 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, reaching PKR 1.693 trillion. The Power Division’s quarterly report noted that payables to power producers increased, reflecting continued financial pressure in spite of earlier capital injections and borrowing. Debt parked in the Power Holding Company remained the same, but inefficiencies and weak bill recovery by Distribution Companies (Discos) were key challenges, though their losses declined compared to last year. The Power Division stated that the increase should not be seen as a reversal of the government’s debt control efforts, explaining that the rise is a reflection of seasonal and operational factors which is expected to stabilise later in the year. (“Circular debt rises to Rs1.7tr in Q1,” Dawn, 6 November 2025)
EDITORIAL/OPINIONS
Nasir Jamal, “What we (don’t) know about proposed changes to Article 243,” Dawn, 6 November 2025
"Debate over possible changes to Article 243, which governs command and control of the armed forces, has revived scrutiny of Pakistan’s long and contested civil-military power balance. While security circles cite evolving warfare and the need for greater inter-service synergy, legal experts remain divided on whether structural reforms require a constitutional amendment or can be achieved through ordinary legislation — leaving more questions than answers about the true intent and scope of the proposed 27th Amendment."
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, “Transboundary Rivers,” Dawn, 6 November 2025
"With India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and Afghanistan planning new dams on the Kunar River, Pakistan faces a tightening upstream chokehold that exemplifies a global trend of ‘hydro-hegemony.’ From the Nile to the Indus, upstream states are weaponising water through unilateral diversions and dam projects, eroding decades of negotiated cooperation. As climate change amplifies scarcity, the region risks sliding from shared management to water-driven conflict — a shift that transforms transboundary rivers into geopolitical fault lines."
Khurram Husain, “NFC and the 27th Amendment,” Dawn, 6 November 2025
"As the federal government seeks Rs500 billion annually from provinces to fund defence expenditure, the long-standing balance under the NFC Award faces fresh strain. While the centre pressures provinces to contribute without formally amending Article 160(3A), discussions suggest an emerging workaround—provincial assent through consensus mechanisms rather than constitutional revision. The move, however, raises concerns over precedent, fiscal autonomy, and the durability of any ‘temporary’ burden-sharing arrangement that could erode provincial control over their constitutionally guaranteed shares."
Nasim Zehra, “Hope Emerges from Istanbul,” The News International, 6 November 2025
"Amid years of devastation in Gaza, the Istanbul Conference offered a rare moment of coordinated Muslim diplomacy. Convened by seven key nations—including Pakistan, Turkey, and Indonesia—it sought to shift from rhetoric to action by outlining mechanisms for reconstruction, security, and Palestinian participation under potential UN oversight. Pakistan’s stance, articulated by Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, underscored that rebuilding Gaza without lifting the siege would only invite renewed destruction. Though modest, the Istanbul process marks a tentative but vital return of Muslim nations to collective agency in shaping Gaza’s post-genocide recovery and the broader struggle for Palestinian sovereignty."
Editorial Board, “The Last Hurrah,” The News International, 6 November 2025
"As debate intensifies over the proposed 27th Amendment, concerns mount that Pakistan’s democratic consensus could again be undermined by political expediency. Critics like Raza Rabbani warn that the amendment threatens to roll back the provincial autonomy secured under the 18th Amendment, while others fear the process is being rushed and obscured from public scrutiny. Amid speculation of behind-the-scenes bargaining—especially between the PPP and PML-N—the controversy underscores a deeper unease: that constitutional reform is once more being driven by power politics rather than democratic deliberation, risking the very spirit of federalism it claims to refine."
Hina Ayra, “Bordering on Connectivity,” The News International, 6 November 2025
"Pakistan’s newly established Land Port Authority (PLPA) marks a critical shift from border control to trade facilitation. By unifying customs, immigration, and security functions under one institutional framework, the PLPA aims to replace decades of fragmented management with measurable efficiency and accountability. If effectively implemented—with digital integration, funding, and political backing—the reform could transform Torkham, Chaman, and other crossings from choke points into regional trade gateways. Yet, as Hina Ayra cautions, success will depend on overcoming bureaucratic resistance and infrastructure deficits to ensure Pakistan’s borders finally serve as bridges of connectivity rather than symbols of control."
Inam Ul Haque, “IEA — The Myth of Invincibility and India,” The Express Tribune, 6 November 2025
"Inam Ul Haque argues that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s self-styled narrative of invincibility masks a dependence on Pakistan’s decisive historical support during both the Soviet and U.S.–NATO conflicts. The retired major general warns that Kabul’s current hostility and its warming ties with India represent strategic overreach by an isolated regime seeking short-term leverage. He contends that Pakistan’s patience has worn thin after repeated cross-border provocations and the Taliban’s continued sheltering of the TTP. As regional alignments shift, Haque suggests that Islamabad’s next moves — including limited strikes or outreach to former Afghan stakeholders — could determine whether Afghanistan’s present rulers retain legitimacy or face another cycle of internal fracture and external pressure."
Editorial Board, “In a ‘Good Spot’? Sustainable Growth Depends on Tax Reforms, Climate Action, Political Stability,” The Express Tribune, 6 November 2025
"Following Pakistan’s latest staff-level agreement with the IMF, the editorial notes that while the upcoming tranche offers temporary relief, true stability hinges on structural reforms. Expanding the tax base—especially by bringing elites and agricultural incomes under taxation—remains essential to end chronic dependence on borrowing. The piece also highlights climate change and population growth as emerging economic threats requiring coordinated policy action. Yet, it cautions that without political stability, investor confidence, and a shift from consumption to investment-led growth, Pakistan’s economy will remain trapped in cycles of short-lived recoveries and external dependence."