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In Focus
Imran and wife get bail extension
Interim bail of Imran and Bushra extended till 27 January
On 24 December, Dawn reported that a local court on Tuesday extended the interim bail of Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi in the 9 May cases and five other matters while directing Imran to appear at the next hearing in person or via video link. Arguments on the bail plea could not be advanced due to the unavailability of Imran. The court extended the interim bail and adjourned the hearing till 27 January for both Imran and Bushra. Separately, a PTI lawyer once again was denied the opportunity to meet Imran to obtain his signature on the power of attorney papers for filing the appeal against his recent conviction in the Toshakhana case. (“Interim bail of Imran, Bushra extended till Jan 27,” Dawn, 24 December 2025)
PIA bidding process complete
Arif Habib wins auction for airline with PKR 135 billion bid
On 24 December, as reported by The Express Tribune and Dawn, a consortium led by investment firm Arif Habib Corp won the auction for Pakistan Airlines Corporation Limited (PIACL) with a PKR 135 billion bid placed during the open auction. Initially, pre-qualified bids were submitted by Lucky Cement, Airblue and Arif Habib. Airblue exited the race after the first round with a bid lower than the reference price of PKR 100 billion. Following a 30-minute break, the next round commenced with Lucky Cement placing a bid of PKR 134 billion, which was subsequently countered and topped by a PKR 135 billion bid from Arif Habib. “PIA is our national institution,” Habib said. “Initially, we plan to expand the fleet to 38 aircraft in the first phase, then to 65, depending on demand. Employment opportunities will grow as we expand. The existing experienced employees will also get opportunities,” he added. Arif Habib will purchase a 75 per cent stake in the PIA, with the transition committee giving them an option to purchase the remaining 25 per cent.
Out of the PKR 135 billion, the government will receive PKR 10 billion, and the remaining amount will be invested in the PIA. Muhammad Ali, privatisation adviser to the prime minister, said that the winner would have to deposit two-thirds of the bid amount within three months and the remaining within the next year. He also mentioned that the successful bidder will have three months to show interest in acquiring the remaining 25 per cent shares of the PIA at a 12 per cent premium. There is also a possibility for Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. to become the fifth partner in the consortium. The government’s desire is for the PIA to have 40 functional aircraft carrying seven million people annually, up from the current four million. It has also barred the new owners from terminating any employee for a maximum period of one year.
The completion of the bidding process for the PIA marks the first major privatisation transaction in Pakistan in nearly two decades. This was the second attempt to sell the PIA in just over a year and marks the first successful transaction since the country’s largest power distribution company, K Electric, was sold by the government in 2005. To make a successful second attempt, the government even waived off the 18 per cent sales tax on aircraft lease, gave PKR 36 billion tax credit to the bidders and extended the timeframe to clear the current PKR 33 billion of liabilities of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). The airline currently has fewer than 6,900 permanent employees, in addition to the 2,900 contractual employees. Arif Habib assured employees that they should not have any fear, as good and competent workers will be retained and compensated. (Shahbaz Rana, “Govt finally cuts loose 'white elephant' PIA,” The Express Tribune, 24 December 2025; Amin Ahmed, “Arif Habib consortium emerges victorious in PIA auction with Rs135bn bid,” Dawn, 23 December 2025)
In Brief
POLITICS
PTI sit-in at Rawalpindi’s factory Naka concludes meeting without meeting Imran
On 23 December, Dawn reported that Imran Khan’s sisters, Aleema Khan, Noreen Khan, and Uzma Khan, ended their sit-in and left Rawalpindi’s factory Naka on Tuesday night. Over several weeks, Imran was denied meetings in prison with his family, party members, and lawyers, prompting them to stage sit-ins outside the prison complex every Tuesday and Thursday. Crowds of party supporters marched towards prison on Adiala road before being stopped in front of the riot fence, chanting slogans and waving both Pakistani and PTI flags. Imran’s sister Aleema gave a statement saying, “Whoever says that we should negotiate with the government after Imran gave these instructions, they cannot be a member of Imran Khan’s party.” (“PTI sit-in at Rawalpindi’s factory Naka concludes as Aleema, party workers leave without meeting Imran,” Dawn, 23 December 2025)
SECURITY
CDF Field Marshall Munir highlights security challenges and hostile actors’ tactics
On 23 December, Dawn reported that the Chief Defence Forces (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshall Asim Munir warned of ‘indirect and ambiguous approaches’ employed by actors hostile to Pakistan, which included the use of proxies, during a visit to Islamabad’s National Defence University (NDU). According to a statement by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the CDF was briefed by civil and military participants of the ongoing national security and war course about their academic perspectives on national security. Munir emphasised how future leaders must be trained and remain alert to recognise, anticipate, and counter multi-layered cognitive challenges. (“CDF Field Marshal Munir talks about security challenges, highlights ‘indirect, ambiguous approaches’ used by hostile actor,” Dawn, 23 December 2025)
ECONOMY
Pakistan plans largest-ever 5G spectrum auction
On 23 December, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Minister for Information Technology Shaza Fatima Khawaja stated that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has approved the recommendations of the Spectrum Advisory Committee for the upcoming spectrum auction. This would now be forwarded to the federal cabinet for final approval, accelerating the Digital Pakistan programme. The auction process, described by the government as the largest such auction in the country’s history, was expected to be completed by the end of January or early February, with the overall timeline for launching 5G services spanning the next four to six months. The move was aimed at accelerating the Digital Pakistan agenda, with assurances of transparency, stakeholder consultation, and in accordance with the government’s forthcoming “Connect 2030” plan, which targets minimum internet speeds of 100 Mbps nationwide over the next five years. (“5G spectrum auction to be ‘Pakistan’s largest’,” The Express Tribune, 23 December, 2025)
Trade deficit with nine states swells to USD 6.22 billion
On 24 December, Dawn reported that in the first five months of the financial year, Pakistan’s trade gap with nine neighbouring countries widened by 39.33 per cent to USD 6.221 billion compared to USD 4.465 billion at the beginning of FY 2024-25. Exports to the region declined by over 17 per cent, with the steepest drops recorded in trade with China and Afghanistan, while imports surged by more than 22 per cent, largely due to increased inflows from China. Although a marginal increase was seen in exports to India, trade volumes remained negligible, and exports to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka also contracted, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. Analysts note that the growing imbalance of exports highlights Pakistan’s weakening regional performance and increasing dependence on imports, particularly from China, worsening the external sector pressures. (“Trade deficit with nine states swells to $6.22bn,” Dawn, 24 December 2025)
Foreign loan inflows surge in early FY26 despite a fall in grants
On 24 December, according to Dawn, in the first five months of FY 2025–26, there was an inflow of foreign loans and grants to Pakistan, which increased by 14 per cent to USD 3.032 billion, compared to USD 2.667 billion, driven largely by IMF-linked support, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The amount of loans alone increased by 46 per cent from last year to USD 2.52 billion. However, the amount of grants decreased by 43 per cent from last year to USD 54 million. Thus, the country is increasingly dependent on debt-based external funding. The amount received in November was USD 511 million, a substantial increase from the month before, but still far below the amount received in November 2024. Nearly USD one billion of this total amount consisted of budget-support loans, as well as continuing amounts received through the Saudi oil facility and increasing amounts from overseas Pakistani investments in Naya Pakistan Certificates, with the total received to date having exceeded the full-year target. Nonetheless, disbursements from multilateral lenders (other than the IMF) were much lower than projected, continuing to create significant pressures on Pakistan's external financing framework, even with ambitious targets of USD 19.9 billion for total inflows for the entire year. (“Foreign loan inflows surge by 46pc in July–Nov,” Dawn, December 24, 2025)
AF-PAK
Tribal elders urge reopening of Chaman border
On 24 December, as reported by Dawn, Amanullah Khan and Malik Abdul Khaliq Lala Ghabizai, Pashtun tribal elders, urged the government to reopen the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing in Chaman to facilitate thousands of travellers and traders, who are stranded in Afghanistan. The elders were addressing a press conference and said that all business activities along the border have been brought to a standstill over the last two months. “Pakistanis stranded in Afghanistan are not allowed by the authorities concerned to return to Pakistan,” Malik Ghabizai said. Thousands of trucks carrying household belongings of migrants are also stuck at the border, with the drivers and cleaners facing severe food shortages and diminished income. The leaders urged the authorities to allow residents of Chaman to travel freely to their area and remove checkpoints (“Jirga seeks reopening of Chaman border,” Dawn, 24 December 2025)
Editorials/Opinions
AI
Naveed R Khan, “AI governance begin?” The Express Tribune, 24 December 2025
“Over the past few weeks, social media in Pakistan has exploded with frustration. Drivers across Lahore and Karachi have been posting screenshots of unexpected challans, debating wrongful fines, sharing blurry images captured by traffic cameras and asking the same question, "How did I get this ticket?" Some report receiving multiple challans at once, while others argue the system is unfair, confusing or technologically flawed. Albeit underneath this noise lies something far more important. Has Pakistan just launched its first real test case of AI-driven governance? The public's reaction exposes deep anxieties about automation, fairness and trust in public institutions.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2583684/ai-governance-begin
Taxes
Editorial, “Stalled tax effort,” Dawn, 24 December 2025
“Pakistan’s tax effort appears to have plateaued. Or so the latest IMF projections stress. After a jump of 1.4 percentage points in the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.3pc in FY25, largely through additional revenue-enhancing measures that mostly burdened captive taxpayers — the salaried class and compliant businesses — the FBR tax collection as a ratio of the country’s GDP is projected to stagnate for the next five years. The only modest gains, if any, will likely come from provinces, and that too if they decide to effectively tax agriculture income and services. The Fund expects the provincial tax-to-GDP ratio to jump from the current 0.9pc to 1.3pc of GDP in FY27 and further to 1.6pc in FY28 before flattening until FY30. Overall, the country’s tax revenues are projected to flatten at 11.1pc of GDP — much below the 13.3pc mark the government has committed to achieve during the current IMF programme period — all the way through FY30. What the lender is signalling is that the government has ‘exhausted’ its option to raise taxation without fixing the underlying structural problems and better enforcement, or further burdening compliant sectors of the economy, or both.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1962949/stalled-tax-effort
Economy
Ehsan Malik, “Quick fixes,” Dawn, 24 December 2025
“Every economic slowdown in Pakistan revives the expectation within the business community that some incentives will quickly restore growth. This expectation is understandable, but it is misplaced. Pakistan’s growth challenge is not cyclical; it is structural. And structural weaknesses do not yield to quick fixes. The IMF programmes are often seen as turning points for economic revival. In reality, their primary function is to stabilise the macroeconomic environment by restoring external balance, enforcing fiscal discipline, and anchoring inflation expectations. Structural reforms — the kind that raise productivity and expand markets — cannot be delivered within the short lifespan of an IMF programme. Pakistan’s persistent export underperformance illustrates the depth of the problem. Exports remain low and narrowly concentrated, hovering around 10 per cent of GDP, far below regional peers.For Pakistan’s business community, the message is clear. There will be no economic miracle produced by short-term fixes. Sustainable growth is a long game — and those who adapt early to a competitive, export-led future will be best placed for success.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1962940/quick-fixes
Poverty
Murad Moosa Khan, “Psychology of poverty,” Dawn, 24 December 2025
“In Pakistan, poverty is often discussed in numbers, percentages, GDP ratios, and economic growth rates. Policymakers debate fiscal reforms, economists analyse inflation trends, and politicians promise relief packages. Yet, what remains largely ignored is the psychology of poverty — the effect chronic deprivation has on the human mind, behaviour and social fabric. Poverty is not only an economic condition but also a psychological experience, one that influences how millions of poor in Pakistan think, feel, and act every day. Behind statistics lie complex emotional realities: uncertainty, humiliation, despondency and a persistent sense of powerlessness. Poverty in Pakistan is not only a failure of economics; it is a crisis of the mind. It erodes hope, corrodes trust, and diminishes the belief in collective progress. For millions of Pakistanis, poverty means living with daily psychological strain that no relief package can quantify. If Pakistan truly seeks inclusive development, it must place mental well-being at the heart of its poverty alleviation agenda. The fight against poverty is not only about raising incomes; it is about restoring dignity, rebuilding confidence, and healing minds.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1962945/psychology-of-poverty
Law
Omay Aimen, “From opinion to verdict - without evidence,” The Express Tribune, 23 December 2025
"The line between human rights advocacy and political storytelling becomes dangerously thin when allegations are amplified before they are examined. Pakistan finds itself confronting such a moment after a recent statement by a UN Human Rights Council mandate holder triggered sensational headlines, amplified selective claims and framed an ongoing domestic legal matter through an oversimplified lens. The ease with which an independent expert's non-binding remarks were repackaged as a definitive UN judgment reveals less about Pakistan's legal framework and more about the modern appetite for quick outrage. It is essential, therefore, to place facts back into context and reassert the foundational principle that Pakistan is a sovereign state with its own institutions, its own judicial rhythm and its own accountability mechanisms that cannot be pre-judged from afar. Sovereignty means that domestic legal processes are neither subordinate to external conjecture nor obliged to align with politicised interpretations presented as global concern."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2583526/from-opinion-to-verdict-without-evidence
Politics & Governance
Editorial, “The way forward,” The Express Tribune, 23 December 2025
“The political opposition has come up with a coordinated narrative calling for resorting to democratic norms and undoing all extra-constitutional measures undertaken recently. Tehreek Tahaffuz-e-Ain Pakistan, the six-party conglomerate, has demanded an independent probe into the allegation of rigging in the February 2024 elections; appointment of an impartial chief election commissioner; holding polls afresh in a free and fair manner; and release of all political prisoners. The alliance has resolved to work collectively for the rule of law and supremacy of the Constitution - and has gathered support from saner elements in the ruling PML-N. This development on the political horizon should be seen as an opportunity in disaster to make a good start towards reconciliation in wider national interests.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2583521/the-way-forward-4
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