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Pakistan-Afghanistan War Update
Peace with Kabul contingent on Taliban forsaking terrorist support, says CDF Munir
Pakistan’s “Operation Ghazab Lil Haq” enters seventh day as 481 Taliban fighters reported killed, 281 posts destroyed
On 04 March, The Express Tribune reported that Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and Chief of the Army Staff Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir called the use of Afghan soil by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other groups for terrorism against Pakistan “unacceptable”. He added that all necessary measures would be taken to neutralise any threat originating from across the border. A press release from the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that the CDF visited Wana in South Waziristan to review the prevailing security situation, where he was given a comprehensive briefing on the ongoing operations and measures in place for border management. The field marshal also reiterated that peace is only possible if the Afghan Taliban “renounced their support for terrorism and terrorist organisations," the statement said.
Pakistan’s “Operation Ghazab Lil Haq” entered its seventh day, following renewed clashes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border last week. Afghanistan had launched a broader offensive in response to Pakistani airstrikes, which prompted a more comprehensive operation from Islamabad. According to Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, so far 481 Afghan Taliban fighters have been killed, while more than 696 have been injured since the operation was launched. Additionally, the information minister said that 226 Afghan checkposts had been destroyed, while 35 others were captured by Pakistani forces. “One hundred and ninety-eight tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery guns have also been destroyed during the operation,” he said. He also added that 56 locations across Pakistan had been targeted, as of Wednesday.
Islamabad’s airstrikes on Afghan territory followed a series of terrorist attacks in Pakistan by the TTP and other militant groups in Balochistan and KP. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif had earlier said that “all options were on the table” regarding responding to the terror threat, and this culminated with Pakistan undertaking airstrikes on terrorist camps in three provinces in Afghanistan. This prompted a military response from Kabul, which resulted in the ongoing war. On Monday, a senior Pakistani security officer said that the operation would continue until Kabul gave guarantees that would stop supporting terrorist groups targeting Pakistan. On Wednesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an said that Türkiye would be willing to help re-establish the ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan. (“CDF Munir says all necessary measures to be taken for neutralising threat from Afghan border,” The Express Tribune, 04 March 2026; “481 Afghan Taliban killed, 226 checkposts destroyed as Operation Ghazab Lil Haq enters seventh day,” The Express Tribune, 03 March 2026)
In Brief
ECONOMY
Pakistan’s exports continue to fall, contracting 8.76 per cent in February
On 05 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s merchandise exports fell 8.76 per cent to USD 2.27 billion in February, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics' latest data. Amid rising volatility in the region, it raises more concerns for Pakistan, which has faced consecutive months of export contraction, except in January, when exports rose modestly. The crisis in West Asia will further impact export performance in the coming months, with demand in key regional markets dampened and key trade routes remaining disrupted. Exports proceeds recorded a negative growth of 7.03 per cent in the first eight months, falling to USD 20.46 billion from USD 22.07 billion in the corresponding period last year. Imports also fell by 1.68 per cent to USD 5.25 billion in February from USD 5.34 billion over the corresponding month of last year, according to the PBS data. On a month-on-month basis, imports decreased by 9.51 per cent. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed 4.63 per cent to USD 2.98 billion in February from USD 2.85 billion over the corresponding month of last year. In the coming months, with geopolitical risks mounting, Pakistan’s exports will face more volatility. (“Exports contract 8.76pc in February,” Dawn, 5 March 2026)
UAE allows monthly rollover in place of a yearly rollover on Pakistan’s USD two billion loan
On 5 March, The Express Tribune reported that the State Bank of Pakistan Governor claimed that the UAE was not demanding repayment of a USD two billion loan but had instead shifted it to a monthly rollover, as the UAE’s two loans of USD one billion each matured on 16 and 22 January 2026. In 2018, the UAE provided USD two billion to Pakistan for one year, but Pakistan was unable to repay the amount and has sought rollovers annually since then. As a result, Pakistan is paying about USD 130 million annually in interest rates of three per cent on the debt, but last year UAE increased it to 6.5 per cent. The SBP governor, while providing insights into the country’s economic challenges to the National Assembly Standing Committee. also acknowledged the economic strain of being under an IMF programme, which limited the country’s ability to offer subsidies and rebates. (“No demand for repayment of $2b loan from UAE, says SBP governor,” The Express Tribune, 5 March 2026)
Government to take several measures amid Strait of Hormuz closure
On 05 March, Dawn reported that Pakistan is all set to take several measures to keep the markets liquid amid the drying out of trading activity following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The measures will include weekly petroleum price revisions, compensating oil companies for elevated insurance and import premiums, and fuel conservation measures like mandatory work-from-home for public and private sectors following a surge in petroleum prices. At present, Pakistan has both petrol and diesel stocks of over 5,00,000, enough for 25 days. Also, the Pakistani government has requested Saudi Arabia to provide oil supplies through an alternative Red Sea route. Pakistan’s petrol imports continue to be in a safe zone, but diesel imports remain at risk as Pakistan heavily relies on long-term supplies from Kuwait, and all those cargoes have to move through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, more than 20 per cent of global oil cargoes remain stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz, creating a shortage of ships available for diesel cargo. (“Pakistan to take emergency measures on petroleum pricing ‘to keep markets liquid’,” Dawn, 05 March 2026)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia amid regional escalation
On 04 March, The Express Tribune reported that the prime minister’s adviser on political affairs, Rana Sanaullah, said that Pakistan was mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reduce the current level of tension in the wake of US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks on US bases across the Gulf. Sanaullah said that Pakistan’s political and military leadership was in continuous contact with Iran and the Gulf countries. He said that the foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, had briefed the leadership on the diplomatic efforts being made to avert an increase in the current level of tension and that the prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, was in contact with leaders of the region to urge them to exercise restraint and seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict. (“Pakistan acting as mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran to defuse tension: Rana Sanaullah,” The Express Tribune, 4 March 2026)
Energy contingency plan as Hormuz disruptions persist
On 04 March, The Express Tribune reported that Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik said Saudi Arabia has assured Pakistan of continued oil supplies via the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and energy markets face disruption. He said Pakistan is closely monitoring supply risks because Hormuz is a key route for the country’s oil imports, and noted that Saudi support is critical during the disruption. The report added that Saudi ambassador Nawaf bin Said Al-Malki reaffirmed the kingdom’s commitment, and that at least one vessel dispatch for lifting crude from Yanbu has been assured for Pakistan. (“Saudi Arabia assures Pakistan of oil supply through Port of Yanbu on Red Sea,” The Express Tribune, 04 March 2026)
US withdraws non-essential consular staff from Karachi and Lahore amid security alert
On 04 March 2026, Dawn reported that the State Department Orders US Consulate Personnel In Karachi, Lahore To Leave Due To Terror Threats The US State Department on Monday ordered the departure of non-emergency US government employees and their families from the US consulates in the southern cities of Karachi and Lahore citing concerns over the global terrorist threats associated with the Middle East conflict - including the threat of drone and missile strikes and possible disruptions to commercial air travel. There were no changes to the operating status of the US embassy in the capital Islamabad, Dawn reported, citing the US mission. The protests at the US consulates in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad were part of a broader security context, the report said. (“US orders non-emergency consular staff in Karachi, Lahore to leave Pakistan,” Dawn, 4 March 2026)
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Govt criticises opposition for boycotting in-camera security briefing
On 05 March, Dawn reported that the government criticised the opposition for boycotting an in-camera national security briefing convened by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, urging it to reconsider its stance on matters of national interest. The boycott followed a decision by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which said it would not attend unless a meeting with its founder, Imran Khan, was arranged. Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Tariq Fazal Chaudhry said the briefing aimed to foster unity on national security and regional developments. He noted that Ishaq Dar and Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch briefed lawmakers on issues concerning Afghanistan, Iran and the Gulf. The minister added that Pakistan was pursuing regional de-escalation and seeking stronger measures from the Afghan Taliban to curb cross-border terrorism. (“Govt deplores opposition’s boycott of in-camera briefing on national security,” Dawn, 04 March 2026)
ENERGY
IAEA approves safeguards agreement for Unit 5 at Chashma Nuclear Plant
On 5 March, Dawn reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board approved the agreement between the agency and Pakistan for the application of safeguards at Unit 5 of the Chashma nuclear plant. The decision reflects the international community’s continued confidence in Pakistan’s commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear energy and its adherence to global non-proliferation and safeguards obligations. The plant had a gross capacity of 1,200 MW, and the pressurised water reactor was expected to become operational by 2030. Currently, Pakistan operates six nuclear power plants with a combined installed capacity of 3,530 MW. (“IAEA’s board of governors unanimously approves safeguards for Chashma nuclear power plant unit, FO says,” Dawn, 5 March 2026)
Editorials/Opinions
Conflict & terrorism
Khurram Husain, “The burdens of war,” Dawn, 05 March 2026
"For many decades now, Pakistan has been investing in a large and expensive military apparatus to fend off external threats to the country. Today, that apparatus faces its supreme test. With the near simultaneous start of conflict in Afghanistan and Iran, the country’s entire western border is now a war zone. Moreover, neither war looks like it will be over soon. With the prospect of protracted conflict on the entire western flank, Pakistan must now take sober stock of its resource position to be able to sustain the burdens that conflict will inevitably bring."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1978517/the-burdens-of-war
Durdana Najam, “Balochistan: beyond the politics of deprivation,” The Express Tribune, 05 March 2026
"Mention Balochistan in any political conversation, and the word "deprivation" almost always follows. For decades, this idea that the province is systematically neglected by Islamabad has shaped how Pakistan imagines the region. It is a powerful narrative: a land rich in natural resources, yet its people remain poor and restless, with their grievances echoing across generations. This story has become so familiar that it is rarely questioned."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2595827/balochistan-beyond-the-politics-of-deprivation
Dr Syed Akhtar Ali Shah, “Terrorism, memory and the politics of simplification,” The Express Tribune, 04 March 2026
"An intense and emotionally charged debate is once again underway over the stance of the Government of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa on terrorism, particularly following recent statements by provincial leadership questioning dominant narratives on militancy and cross-border dynamics."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2595650/terrorism-memory-and-the-politics-of-simplification-1
Economy
Editorial, “Economic impact,” Dawn, 05 March 2026
"AS the confrontation between the US-Israel combine and Iran escalates across the Middle East, increasing regional instability is no longer a mere geopolitical concern for Pakistan; it now has tangible implications for its fragile economy."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1978513/economic-impact
Sakib Sherani, “The IMF’s culpability,” Dawn, 05 March 2026
"The mismanagement of Pakistan as a polity by its ruling elite has landed the country in periodic crises. These crises have been as much political as economic. The resulting economic turmoil has necessitated 25 IMF programmes. While Pakistan’s elites are to blame for their recidivist, incorrigible (and extractive) nature, each interaction with the IMF has compounded the country’s structural problems rather than provide a pathway to sustainable growth and development. The latest example is the ongoing programme where the IMF has endorsed the government’s free-spending fiscal profligacy while imposing the burden of adjustment on ordinary Pakistanis. The carte blanche on spending comes on top of repeated forbearance of slippages on structural and institutional reform. In doing so, the Fund has failed its basic duty-of-care responsibility to ordinary citizens of a member country."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1978518/the-imfs-culpability
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