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In Focus
Pakistan facing growing health risks due to decline in international funding, finds report
Underinvestment in healthcare and over-reliance on international loans found to be major causes as disease burdens increase
On 12 May, Dawn reported that Pakistani think tank Tabadlab released a report warning that declining international funding could severely strain Pakistan’s health system, threatening disease control programmes, immunisation efforts, diagnostic capacity and workforce training unless urgent domestic reforms are undertaken. The report, titled “Beyond Dependence: Understanding the Impact of ODA Cuts on Pakistan’s Health System”, noted that global Official Development Assistance (ODA) fell from USD 215 billion in 2024 to USD 174.3 billion in 2025 and may continue declining, while major foreign donors are expected to phase out grants by 2030. Researchers cautioned that shrinking aid could undermine Pakistan’s ability to manage tuberculosis, HIV-AIDS, malaria, polio and child health challenges, particularly as life expectancy remains below the South Asian average and infant mortality remains among the region’s highest. The report also highlighted Pakistan’s continued underinvestment in healthcare, with total health expenditure standing at just 2.9 per cent of GDP and public sector spending at 0.9 per cent, despite rising disease burdens and population pressures.
The report further warned that Pakistan’s increasing reliance on concessional loans instead of grants could deepen financial vulnerabilities, noting that grant-based assistance had declined by 59 per cent while loans now account for 96 per cent of external aid inflows. It identified cuts by institutions such as The Global Fund, World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and World Food Programme (WFP) as early indicators of future disruptions, including reduced disease surveillance and weaker outbreak response systems. According to the report, Pakistan recently faced a USD 27.2 million reduction in Global Fund support, primarily affecting tuberculosis and HIV programmes in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The authors recommended the creation of a National Health Financing Forum, a national ODA registry and broader structural reforms to reduce dependence on foreign assistance and strengthen long-term healthcare resilience. (“Pakistan to face growing health risk as international funding to health sector continues to decline: report,” Dawn, 12 May 2026)
Read the report:
"Beyond dependence: Understanding the impact of ODA cuts on Pakistan’s health system," Tabadlab, 08 May 2026
Pakistan & Afghanistan
Taliban rejects Pakistani claim that Bannu suicide attack was planned in Afghanistan
Spokesperson calls for resolving issues through “genuine cooperation”; FIA arrests 34 undocumented Afghan nationals in Turbat
On 13 May, The News International reported that Afghanistan’s Taliban government rejected Pakistan’s allegation that last week’s deadly suicide attack in Bannu was planned from Afghan territory, after Islamabad summoned Kabul’s top diplomat over the attack that killed at least 15 people. Pakistani authorities said the attack on the Fateh Khel police checkpoint had been “masterminded by terrorists residing in Afghanistan”, but Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid dismissed the accusation as “baseless” and called for resolving bilateral issues through “mutual understanding, respect and genuine cooperation”. The exchange comes amid worsening tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban over cross-border militancy and repeated Pakistani allegations that militant groups, particularly the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are operating from sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.
Separately, Dawn reported that the Federal Investigation Agency arrested 34 undocumented Afghan nationals in Turbat during a raid along the CPEC route, accusing them of attempting to travel illegally towards Iran through Gwadar. Officials said the group included men, women and children, and that investigations were underway to identify human smuggling facilitators and networks involved in cross-border movement. The FIA said the arrests were part of broader efforts to crack down on illegal migration and trafficking activities in the region, and reflect Pakistan’s tightening security and immigration measures amid growing concerns over militancy and undocumented movement along the Afghan border. (“Taliban govt rejects claim Pakistan suicide attack was planned in Afghanistan,” The News International, 13 May 2026; “Dozens of undocumented Afghans held in Balochistan,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
In Brief
ECONOMY
Pakistan maintains macroeconomic stability in H1-FY26
On 12 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability strengthened in the first half of the fiscal year despite headwinds from uncertainty regarding global trade and domestic floods, as per the SBP Half Year Report “State of Pakistan’s Economy 2025-26.” However, the report noted that the war in the Middle East poses “significant risks to the macroeconomic outlook," as supply chain disruptions are likely to affect the inflation trajectory, external trade and remittance flows, and the country’s economic activity. The report highlighted that economic indicators improved significantly in the first half of FY26; real GDP in H1-FY26 grew at twice the pace of the same period last year. The substantial reduction in interest payments and fiscal consolidation measures turned the fiscal balance into a surplus in H1-FY26 for the first time since FY02. The NCPI inflation averaged 5.2 per cent in H1-FY26, about two percentage points lower compared to the same period last year. The report highlighted that while Pakistan’s overall economic conditions improved, the country’s transition to a sustainable high-growth path with sustained macroeconomic stability required deep-rooted economic reforms. (“Despite improved macroeconomic stability in first half of FY26, war in Middle East poses significant risks to outlook: SBP,” Dawn, 12 May 2026)
SBP receives USD 1.3 billion from IMF under EFF and RSF disbursement
On 13 May, Dawn reported that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) had received USD 1.3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF Board completed the third review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in its meeting held on 8 May and approved the disbursement of SDR 760 million for Pakistan. Furthermore, the IMF Executive Board has also approved the disbursement of the second tranche of SDR 154 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Accordingly, SBP received SDR 914 million (equivalent to USD 1.3 billion). However, the IMF warned of shocks emanating from the West Asian crisis. The IMF underlined the continued importance of maintaining strong policies to continue building resilience and of moving ahead with structural reforms to achieve sustainable long-term growth. (“SBP says it has received $1.3bn tranche from IMF,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Pakistan records lowest fiscal deficit in nearly three decades
On 13 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan recorded its lowest fiscal deficit in at least 27 years at 0.7 per cent of GDP during the first three quarters of the current fiscal year. It is supported by higher-than-targeted provincial contributions, strong petroleum levy collections, and lower interest payments. As per the Ministry of Finance's July-March data, the historically low fiscal deficit was achieved after a gradual reversal of the current fiscal year. The data showed that the petroleum levy remained the government’s largest revenue source, surging by 45 per cent to PKR 1.025 trillion. However, the largest contribution came from the provinces, which exceeded their annual target by a big margin under the IMF’s USD 7 billion EEF. The four provinces collectively posted a cash surplus of PKR 1.636 trillion during the first nine months of the fiscal year, surpassing the full-year target of PKR 1.464 trillion by PKR 172 billion. Despite these gains, the data reflected weakness in both revenue generation and expenditure management. Overall revenue-to-GDP ratio dropped to 11.4 per cent during July-March compared to 11.7 per cent during the same period last year, despite strong growth in petroleum levy collections and SBP profits. (“Fuel levy yields lowest fiscal deficit in nearly three decades,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
ADB gives nod to Karachi Circular Railway project with USD 1 billion support
On 13 May, Dawn reported that the Karachi Circular Railway project received a nod from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), raising hopes for the revival of the long-delayed transport scheme. ADB assured the Sindh government of USD 1 billion in support funding, including an initial USD 10 million for preparatory work such as design review, operational planning, institutional arrangements, and financing models. Earlier, the KCR project failed to get priority status under CPEC. In a recent meeting, the chief secretary and the ADB delegation focused on developing a sustainable, integrated, and modern urban transport system in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, and Larkana, to improve public transport, reduce traffic congestion, promote environmentally friendly mobility, and strengthen future transport planning. (“ADB to provide $1bn for Karachi Circular Railway revival,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
EXTERNAL
PM Shehbaz and Azerbaijan's Aliyev discuss Middle East peace efforts, reaffirm bilateral ties
On 12 May, Dawn reported that PM Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, with the two leaders discussing regional developments and ongoing peace efforts in the Middle East. Aliyev expressed deep appreciation for Pakistan's initiatives in bringing about the US-Iran ceasefire, describing it as a reflection of international trust in Pakistan's leadership. The two sides reaffirmed bilateral ties and agreed to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, energy, and people-to-people contacts, with both leaders agreeing to meet in person later this year. PM Shehbaz conveyed regrets over being unable to attend the World Urban Forum in Baku next week and reiterated his invitation for Aliyev to visit Pakistan. ("PM Shehbaz, Azerbaijan's President Aliyev discuss peace efforts in Mideast: PMO," Dawn, 12 May 2026)
Kuwait agrees to explore strategic petroleum storage in Pakistan amid ongoing energy cooperation
On 12 May, Dawn reported that Kuwait agreed to explore building strategic petroleum storage facilities in Pakistan during a meeting between Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik and Kuwaiti Ambassador Nassar Abdulrahman Jasser Almutairi in Islamabad. Both sides discussed prospects for enhanced cooperation in refining and energy, with the storage initiative expected to bring mutual benefit. Malik expressed gratitude to Kuwait for facilitating the dispatch of the vessel Khairpur, which delivered approximately 45,000 tonnes of diesel and 10,000 tonnes of jet fuel to Pakistan under special approvals following Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The ambassador praised Pakistan's constructive peace efforts, saying the country's responsible stance had elevated its standing in the eyes of the international community. Pakistan imports over 60 per cent of its diesel from Kuwait under a long-term contract between Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Pakistan State Oil, and Kuwait had extended an oil credit facility to Pakistan for an additional two years in April. ("Kuwait to 'explore new opportunities' around building strategic storage in Pakistan's petroleum sector," Dawn, 12 May 2026)
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
Court declares TLP leader Saad Rizvi and 23 others proclaimed offenders
On 13 May, Dawn reported that an anti-terrorism court (ATC) in Lahore declared Saad Rizvi and 23 other leaders of Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) as proclaimed offenders in a case related to violence during protests last year. The court also issued permanent arrest warrants after police said the accused had gone into hiding to avoid arrest. Police informed the court that public notices had already been issued, but the suspects did not appear before the court. The case includes charges related to terrorism, vandalism, violence and attacks on police officials. Several senior TLP leaders were among those declared proclaimed offenders. The development comes as legal action continues against TLP leaders and workers over protest-related violence and attacks on law enforcement personnel in Punjab. (“ATC declares Saad Rizvi, 23 others proclaimed offenders,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
KP CM Afridi and Imran Khan’s sisters demand meeting at Adiala jail
On 12 May, Dawn reported that the sisters of former prime minister Imran Khan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi were again denied a meeting with the jailed PTI founder at Adiala jail. Imran’s sister Aleema Khan said the decision violated Islamabad High Court orders that allow family meetings twice a week. Speaking to the media outside the jail, Aleema Khan warned that they could hold a sit-in protest if meetings continued to be blocked. Sohail Afridi criticised the authorities and called on parliamentarians to support Imran Khan’s family. PTI leaders also accused the government of ignoring court orders and limiting access to the former prime minister. The incident reflects continuing tensions between PTI and the government over Imran Khan’s imprisonment and restrictions on meetings with family members and party leaders. (“Imran’s sisters, KP CM demand meeting with incarcerated PTI founder, threaten sit-in,” Dawn, 12 May 2026)
SECURITY
Punjab: Four killed and three injured in police encounters
On 12 May, Dawn reported that four people were killed and three others injured in separate police encounters in central and southern Punjab. The incidents took place in different districts during police operations against suspected criminals and armed groups. Police officials said the suspects were involved in crimes such as robbery, murder and other violent activities. According to police, the suspects were killed during exchanges of fire after they resisted arrest. Some police personnel were also injured during the operations. Authorities said raids and search operations were continuing in different areas to arrest other suspects linked to criminal networks. The incidents come during ongoing police operations in Punjab against organised crime and violent offenders. (“Four killed, three injured as encounters continue in central, south Punjab,” Dawn, 12 May 2026)
Lakki Marwat: Blast kills nine people and injures 33
On 12 May, Dawn reported that at least nine people, including two traffic police personnel, were killed and 33 others injured in a blast in the Serai Naurang area of Lakki Marwat district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Local officials said the explosion was caused by explosives planted in a rickshaw parked in a crowded market area. Several shops and vehicles were also damaged in the blast. Police and rescue teams reached the site soon after the incident and shifted the injured to nearby hospitals. Some critically injured people were later moved to hospitals in Bannu and Peshawar for treatment. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi condemned the attack and asked for reports on the incident. The blast came days after another deadly militant attack in nearby Bannu, highlighting continuing security concerns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. (“Blast in KP’s Lakki Marwat claims 9 lives, injures 33,” Dawn, 12 May 2026)
SOCIETY
Pakistan's population could reach 389.9 million by 2050 as Planning Minister warns of "social bomb"
On 13 May, Dawn reported that Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal warned that unchecked population growth could become a "social bomb" and a major obstacle to economic progress, speaking at the launch of the National and Provincial Population Projections 2023-2050. The report projects Pakistan's population rising from 241.5 million in 2023 to between 371.9 million and 389.9 million by 2050, depending on the pace of fertility decline. The working-age population is projected to rise sharply from 135.2 million to 255.4 million, presenting a potential demographic dividend if sufficient investment is made in education, health, and employment. Iqbal proposed linking population management to NFC Award incentives, noting that 82 per cent of resource distribution currently depends on population share, creating little incentive for provinces to reduce growth rates. He said the 2023 census had revealed a far more serious situation than earlier assessments had suggested, and that Pakistan's growth rate was now comparable to some of the world's least developed countries. ("Population growth can become 'social bomb'," Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Pakistan and the US-Iran War
China reaffirms support for Pakistan’s mediation role between US & Iran
President Trump heaps praise on CDF Munir and PM Sharif, and adds that he is not reconsidering Pakistan’s mediation role
On 13 May, The Express Tribune reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed Beijing’s support for Pakistan’s mediation role in the ongoing US-Iran conflict during a phone call with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, as both sides stressed the importance of sustaining the fragile ceasefire and ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Pakistan’s Foreign Office (FO), the two diplomats discussed Islamabad’s continued efforts to facilitate engagement between Iran and the United States following Pakistan-brokered ceasefire talks in Islamabad earlier this year. While Pakistan remains hopeful that direct negotiations will resume, sources indicated Tehran’s latest response to Washington focused primarily on ending hostilities and offered little movement on core American demands regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, though Iran reportedly reiterated willingness to suspend uranium enrichment for five years while rejecting a longer moratorium.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Washington was not reconsidering Pakistan’s mediation role and praised Pakistan’s leadership, saying “the field marshal and the prime minister have been absolutely great”, ahead of his visit to China for talks with Xi Jinping. Trump insisted the US did not require Beijing’s help in dealing with Tehran, even as Washington seeks pressure on Iran to reopen maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz. His remarks came amid rising domestic scrutiny over the war’s growing financial and military costs after the Pentagon told Congress the conflict had now cost nearly USD 29 billion. Tensions remain high despite a month-old ceasefire, with Trump warning the truce was on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, while Iranian officials responded defiantly, demanding recognition of what they called the “rights of the Iranian people” and pushing for sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade and restoration of frozen Iranian assets. (“China lauds Pakistan’s mediation role in US-Iran talks, stresses durable ceasefire,” The Express Tribune, 12 May 2026; “Trump hails Pakistan's 'great mediation' role,” The Express Tribune, 13 May 2026)
Editorials/Opinions
Geopolitics
Zahid Hussain, "Geopolitical shift in ME," Dawn, 13 May 2026
"US President Donald Trump is doing what he does best: keeping the world guessing with his puzzling declarations. He has rejected Iran’s latest proposal for peace talks, stating, “I don’t like it”. He has also threatened Iran with more strikes. He claims the ceasefire is now on “massive life support”. At the same time, he has asserted that he has achieved all his war objectives. What are we to make of such, often conflicting, statements? One thing that can be deduced from Trump’s declarations is that there is not going to be an end to one of the most consequential conflicts in recent history anytime soon."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1999825/geopolitical-shift-in-me
Gender equality
Fiza Farhan, "Child marriage: a persistent form of gender inequality," The Express Tribune, 13 May 2026
"Child marriage is not a tradition we can afford to romanticise. It is a violation of childhood, consent and opportunity. Defined as any formal or informal union where one or both parties are under 18, child marriage remains one of Pakistan's most persistent forms of gender inequality. Despite legal prohibitions, girls continue to be married before they are old enough to choose, study, work, vote, or understand the consequences of a decision made for them."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2607738/child-marriage-a-persistent-form-of-gender-inequality
Terrorism
Editorial, "Now Lakki Marwat," The Express Tribune, 13 May 2026
"The Foreign Office's decision to summon the Afghan Deputy Head of Mission and serve a demarche was a much-needed step. But this should not stop here. Such reminders in the past have fallen on the deaf ears of Kabul. The reclusive regime – apparently obsessed with a power-intoxicated approach – has fallen back on international commitments, breached the Doha and Urumqi accords, and is seen openly pampering the terror nexus for political considerations. The least that the Afghan authorities can do is to cooperate with Pakistan, undertake a verifiable probe into the upheavals and sincerely go for exterminating the gangrene. These are altogether desired for the security and survival of the Afghans as well."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2607733/now-lakki-marwat
Food security
Daud Khan & Mujahid Rasool, "Food self-sufficiency - the elephant in the room," The Express Tribune, 13 May 2026
"Pakistan's food security policy continues on its chaotic rollercoaster course. Two years ago, public procurement of wheat was abolished and minimum support prices were discontinued. These were good decisions – in principle! Unfortunately, they were implemented too quickly and without the complementary measures that would allow the private sector to smoothly take over market operations. As a result of this hasty and poorly implemented policy, the wheat market fluctuated wildly. Prices of wheat stood at around Rs2,200 per 40kg at the time of harvest causing much distress to farmers. Subsequently, they shot up to Rs4,000 per 40kg through the course of the marketing year, causing much distress to consumers."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2607737/food-self-sufficiency-the-elephant-in-the-room
Politics & governance
Editorial, "Locked in," Dawn, 13 May 2026
"The acquittal of as many as 74 PTI activists by a Peshawar court in a case pertaining to the May 2023 violence is a generous and welcome step. The judge said that the prosecution’s case relied on “bald and unsubstantiated allegations”. While the events of May 9 and subsequent days are highly condemnable, releasing political prisoners can go a long way in not only initiating the process of reconciliation but also fostering amity in a polarised society. Meanwhile, with Pakistan shining on the world stage as a peacemaker, the government needs to align actions at home with its positive image abroad. In a show of good faith, a sympathetic stance towards PTI prisoners as well as some other segments should not be delayed. Each one of them is reliant on the state for their welfare."
https://www.dawn.com/news/1999809/locked-in
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