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In Focus
Pakistan’s population could double in 25 years if left unchecked, according to experts
National projection shows population could touch 390 million by 2050; Experts say this could threaten country’s economic stability and social development
On 14 May, The News International and Dawn reported that health experts, policymakers and government officials in Lahore and Islamabad warned that unchecked population growth could become a major threat to Pakistan’s economic stability, healthcare system and social development. Experts suggested that the country’s population could double to 500 million within the next 25 years if the growth continues unchecked. Speaking at a consultative workshop organised by the Punjab Health and Population Department and the Mir Khalil-ur-Rahman Foundation, provincial minister Khawaja Imran Nazir stressed that family planning and birth spacing were essential for improving maternal and child health and ensuring sustainable development. Participants highlighted how rapid population growth was intensifying poverty, unemployment, climate pressures, healthcare shortages and educational challenges, while experts warned that Pakistan and Afghanistan remain among the few countries where polio persists, partly because of low awareness and social misconceptions surrounding family planning. Officials said Punjab’s population growth rate currently stands at 3.82 per cent, while around 21 per cent of couples willing to adopt family planning still lack access to healthcare services and medicines.
Yesterday, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal described rapid population growth as a potential “social bomb” during the launch of Pakistan’s National and Provincial Population Projections 2023-2050, warning that unchecked demographic expansion could undermine economic progress and leave the country with a largely unskilled workforce. While the projections were not as stark as those flagged by experts, it still found that Pakistan’s population could rise from 241.5 million in 2023 to nearly 390 million by 2050 under current trends, while the working-age population is expected to grow sharply, potentially creating a demographic dividend if matched by sufficient investment in education, healthcare and employment. Iqbal proposed linking population management to fiscal incentives under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, arguing that provinces successfully controlling population growth should receive greater rewards. The report also highlighted Pakistan’s increasingly youthful demographic profile, with nearly 67 per cent of the population currently under 30 years old, while warning that the country would also face rising demands for elder care and social protection as life expectancy gradually increases. (“Pakistan’s population to double in 25 years if left unchecked: experts,” The News International, 14 May 2026; “Population growth can become ‘social bomb’,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Families of sailors held by Somali pirates demand their safe return
Protest in Karachi over inadequate government response; Officials in touch with authorities in Djibouti and Somalia, FO says
On 14 May, Dawn and The Express Tribune reported that families of 10 Pakistani crew members aboard the hijacked oil tanker MT Honour 25 protested in Karachi on Wednesday, expressing growing frustration over what they described as the government’s inadequate response more than three weeks after Somali pirates seized the vessel off the coast of Somalia. Demonstrators gathered at the Native Jetty Bridge carrying placards with photographs of the abducted sailors and demanding urgent action for their release before Eidul Azha. Family members said the hostages had informed them during brief calls that conditions aboard the ship were rapidly deteriorating, with clean drinking water exhausted and crew members surviving on boiled rice and contaminated tank water. Several women and children participated in the protest, while relatives described severe emotional distress among family members, including children suffering panic attacks and difficulty continuing their studies. Ansar Burney, chairman of the Ansar Burney Trust International, criticised the government’s response as “highly indifferent” and urged authorities to immediately appoint a focal person and intensify diplomatic efforts for the crew’s recovery.
Pakistani officials said the pirates had not directly contacted Islamabad and that negotiations were instead being handled by the Indonesian-based ship operator in coordination with Somali authorities. Foreign Office spokesman Tahir Andrabi said a team from Pakistan’s embassy in Djibouti had visited Somalia earlier this month and was informed that the hostages were alive, though Somali forces were unable to storm the tanker because it carried flammable cargo. The hijacking of MT Honour 25, which has a 17-member crew including 10 Pakistanis, is part of a broader resurgence in Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters after years of relative decline. Maritime security concerns have intensified amid ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz and the diversion of international naval resources toward tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict, prompting renewed warnings from maritime security agencies about heightened threats to commercial shipping routes. (“Safe return of seamen held by Somali pirates demanded,” Dawn, 14 May 2026; “Sailors’ families protest as Somalia ship hijacking enters 23rd day,” The Express Tribune, 13 May 2026)
In Brief
ECONOMY
Pakistan’s per capita income grew marginally, signalling a gradual economic recovery
On 13 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income increased in dollar terms at a modest pace, indicating a recovery in the country’s overall output compared to the previous year. During the 117th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the government revealed that the country’s economy is expected to grow by 3.70 per cent in the current fiscal year. The provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services in FY26 are 2.89 per cent, 3.51per cent, and 4.09 per cent, respectively. The size of the economy went up to USD 452.1 billion in FY26 from USD 410.96 billion in FY25, mainly driven by growth in the services sector, followed by industry and livestock. The per capita income slightly increased to USD 1,901 in FY26 from USD 1,824 in FY25. The projection is based on the 2023 population census. (“Modest gains in GDP, per capita income indicate recovery in output, government says,” Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Chinese firm seeks to establish an export-oriented manufacturing facility in Pakistan
On 14 May, Dawn reported that Challenges Fashion, a leading Chinese company, is establishing a large-scale manufacturing facility in Pakistan, with the potential to generate annual exports of USD 400 million to USD 500 million and create up to 20,000 local jobs. This was disclosed by a Chinese business delegation on a visit to Pakistan, led by Challenges Fashion Chairman Huwang Weiguo and Challenge Apparel CEO Ms Karen Chen. The delegation highlighted Pakistan’s strategic advantages, including its skilled workforce and geographic position linking regional and international trade routes. The investors expressed confidence in Pakistan’s industrial potential and expressed growing interest among Chinese businesses in expanding their presence in the country. (“Chinese firm plans $500m export facility,” Dawn, 14 May 2026)
Public development spending remains sluggish despite budget allocations
On 14 May, Dawn reported that spending under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) remained sluggish in Pakistan, with allocations reaching only 56 per cent and actual utilisation falling short by around 18 per cent during the first ten months of the current fiscal year. Actual spending under the PSDP amounted to PKR 469.9 billion during the first ten months of FY26 against releases of PKR 571.2 billion, indicating a significant shortfall of 18 per cent in utilisation during the period. The government has also scaled down the overall development outlay to PKR 837.2 billion from the originally projected PKR 1,010 billion for FY26, reflecting a cut of PKR 172.8 billion amid fiscal constraints. The planning ministry released only PKR16.8 billion for the merged districts, erstwhile FATA, in the first ten months of FY26 against the annual revised allocation of PKR 54.3 billion. The utilisation of development funds for the tribal areas stood at 31 per cent. (“Public sector development programme spending remains sluggish,” Dawn, 14 May 2026)
IMF mission begins pre-budget review of Pakistan’s economy
On 14 May, Dawn reported that Pakistan has received fresh inflows of USD 1.3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has pushed the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves above USD 17 billion and closer to the central bank’s target of USD 18 billion. Additionally, a visiting IMF mission began a pre-budget review of Pakistan’s economy, focusing on revenue collection targets, proposed tax measures, reforms, and the fiscal strategy for 2026-27. The IMF team, led by Mission Chief Iva Petrova, is expected to remain in Pakistan for about six working days. However, Pakistan has struggled to attract foreign investment, which has been declining for years. Foreign direct investment fell 27 per cent during July-March FY26. (“IMF funds arrives as govt opens pre-budget talks,” Dawn, 14 May 2026)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan and WHO launch Hepatitis C elimination programme targeting 164 million people by 2030
On 13 May 2026, Dawn reported that Pakistan's Ministry of Health and the WHO launched the Prime Minister's Hepatitis C Elimination Programme in Islamabad, with a PKR 67 billion allocation and a goal of eliminating the disease as a public health threat by 2030. The programme aims to reach 1.6 million people in the initial six months before expanding to over 164 million across the country in subsequent phases. Health Minister Mustafa Kamal noted that approximately ten million of the world's nearly 60 million hepatitis C patients are in Pakistan, with around 80 per cent unaware of their condition. Free screening and a complete three to six-month treatment course will be provided, with 12 screening counters established at federal hospitals in Islamabad as a starting point, supported by Nadra's national database for outreach and transparency. WHO Representative Dr Luo Dapeng said the programme could avert 850,000 deaths and 1.1 million new infections by 2050. ("Pakistan, WHO launch Prime Minister's Hepatitis C Elimination Programme," Dawn, 13 May 2026)
PM Shehbaz to visit China from 23 to 26 May as Pakistan-China ties enter digital phase
On 13 May 2026, Dawn reported that PM Shehbaz Sharif will undertake a three-day official visit to China from 23 to 26 May, including a B2B forum on 24 May, as announced by FM Ishaq Dar at the launch of the IBI Pakistan Digital Economy Centre in Islamabad. The visit follows President Zardari's five-day China trip earlier this month and comes as the two countries prepare to mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations on 21 May. Dar described the launch of the digital centre as a step toward a "Pak-China digital corridor" spanning digital transformation, agriculture, disaster management, healthcare, and smart cities. The visit also carries diplomatic weight given China's role in supporting Pakistan's mediation efforts between the US and Iran, with Dar having spoken with Chinese FM Wang Yi a day earlier on the same subject. ("PM Shehbaz to undertake official three-day China visit: DPM Dar," Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Foreign Office convenes five-day regional envoys' conference to review US-Iran conflict
On 14 May, The Express Tribune reported that Pakistan's Foreign Office will convene a Regional Envoys' Conference in Islamabad from 14 to 18 May, bringing together Pakistan's ambassadors and envoys from key capitals across West Asia and the Middle East. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced the conference on X, saying it would review regional and global developments, Pakistan's bilateral relations with friendly countries, and the shifting geopolitical landscape against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict. The conference is expected to help recalibrate Pakistan's strategy to protect its economic and geostrategic interests, with the ongoing confrontation between Washington and Tehran set to dominate deliberations. ("FO convenes envoys' moot to review Iran-US conflict," The Express Tribune, 14 May 2026)
POLITICS & GOVERNANCE
PTI criticises government over security situation in KP and Balochistan
On 14 May, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) intensified criticism of the federal government over worsening insecurity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, with party information secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram accusing authorities of prioritising political survival and victimisation of opponents over public safety and economic relief. Referring to recent violence in areas including Bannu and Lakki Marwat, he said citizens in KP and Balochistan deserved “peace, security, dignity, and a state that treats their lives as a priority”. PTI also criticised the government’s handling of the wheat sector, arguing that shifting procurement to private companies without adequate safeguards had harmed farmers and contributed to rising flour prices. (“Centre blamed for KP, Balochistan turmoil,” Dawn, 14 May 2026)
PTI Secretary General Akram Raja alleges Imran Khan lost vision in one eye due to jail torture
On 13 May, The Express Tribune reported that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Secretary General Salman Akram Raja on Wednesday alleged that jailed former prime minister Imran Khan was facing serious health risks in custody and had “lost vision” in one eye due to alleged mistreatment in prison. Speaking outside the Supreme Court of Pakistan, Raja claimed Khan had spent nearly 1,000 days in jail and said PTI had exhausted all legal avenues, leaving street protests as its only remaining option. He further alleged that meetings with Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, as well as the signing of legal documents, were being obstructed despite court orders, while describing cases against the couple, including the Toshakhana-II case, as politically motivated. Senior lawyer Hamid Khan also criticised restrictions on lawyer access to prisoners and said petitions seeking prison facilities and meetings for the couple were pending before the court. Earlier medical reports had shown Khan suffering from reduced vision in his right eye due to central retinal vein occlusion, for which he underwent multiple anti-VEGF injections at Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS), while Bushra Bibi underwent treatment and surgery for eye-related complications earlier this year. (“Imran Khan 'loses vision' in one eye due to jail torture, alleges Salman Akram Raja,” The Express Tribune, 13 May 2026)
SECURITY
Balochistan: Seven militants and five soldiers killed in sanitisation operation
On 13 May, Dawn reported that five soldiers, including Major Tauseef Ahmed Bhatti from Pakpattan, were martyred during an area sanitisation operation in the Nosham area of Barkhan district, Balochistan, conducted jointly by the Pakistan Army and Frontier Corps. Seven militants affiliated with Fitna al Hindustan were killed during the operation, with weapons, ammunition, and explosives recovered from the site. The other martyred personnel were identified as Naik Fida Hussain from Sukkur, Sepoy Zakir Hussain from Skardu, Sepoy Suhail Ahmed from Khanewal, and Sepoy Muhammad Ayaz from Rahim Yar Khan. ISPR said sanitisation operations in the surrounding area were continuing. ("Major among five soldiers martyred during operation in Balochistan's Barkhan: ISPR," Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warns of "open war" with Kabul if Afghan Taliban continue facilitating terrorism against Pakistan
On 13 May, Dawn reported that Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, speaking in the National Assembly, acknowledged that the KP government was now firmly aligned with the Centre in combatting terrorism, describing it as a positive development. However, he issued a stark warning that if the Afghan Taliban continued to refuse written guarantees against using Afghan soil for attacks on Pakistan, "there will be open war then." Asif said Pakistan had engaged in multiple rounds of dialogue with Kabul, including talks held in Turkiye, Qatar, and China's Urumqi last month, but the Taliban were "ready to verbally agree, but not in writing." He described Afghanistan as fighting "Hindutva's war against us," drawing a direct equivalence between Delhi and Kabul, and said that following "Marka-i-Haq", India was now waging its campaign against Pakistan through Afghan proxies. The remarks came days after Islamabad issued a strong demarche to Afghanistan over a 10 May suicide attack in Bannu that killed 15 police personnel. ("Khawaja Asif says KP now on 'same page' as Centre in fight against terrorism," Dawn, 13 May 2026)
Editorials/Opinions
US-Iran War
Inam Ul Haque, "Lessons from US-Iran War - alternative energy," The Express Tribune, 14 May 2026
"Last week we began discussing lessons from the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Pakistan-mediated peace effort has hit roadblocks. This week's Irani demands of lifting US maritime blockade, recognition of Irani sovereignty over Hormuz, sanctions relief, guarantees about permanent peace, simultaneous cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and war reparations to Iran have been rejected by Washington, which instead demands greater scrutiny of Iran's nuclear, missile programmes and its proxies. Pakistani interlocutors are painstaking trying to bridge gaps in belligerents' perspectives, and rubbishing CBS News allegations of hiding Irani warplanes."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2607937/lessons-from-us-iran-war-alternative-energy
Geopolitics
Durdana Najam, "Is Pakistan rising as a middle power?" The Express Tribune, 14 May 2026
"For the better part of the last twenty years, whenever the world thought of Pakistan, the focus was usually on terrorism, political chaos and a struggling economy. Naturally, this bad press made investors nervous and left the country's diplomats with very little room to manoeuvre. Lately, however, the narrative has started to shift. Pakistan is quietly adopting a much more flexible foreign policy, working hard to balance its relationships with competing global powers."
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2607938/is-pakistan-rising-as-a-middle-power
Judiciary
Anwar Mansoor Khan, "Judicial disaster," Dawn, 14 May 2026
"On April 28, we witnessed a judicial disaster, with the roll-out effect of the 26th and 27th Amendments puncturing the judiciary’s independence yet again. Three judges were transferred from the Islamabad High Court to three other high courts. The justification offered was that their transfer would fill vacancies in those high courts — when in reality it would create vacancies in the IHC to appoint likeminded judges in the capital area."
https://www.dawn.com/news/2000090/judicial-disaster
Population growth
Editorial, "Growing numbers," Dawn, 14 May 2026
"Forward-looking nations do not just celebrate their advantages; they turn them into tangible gains. They also prepare for times when those very advantages could become a liability. Pakistan’s experience suggests the opposite trajectory, however. It has long celebrated its youthful population as a future economic asset but has failed to develop policies to turn it into tangible gains. It is therefore no surprise that this asset is rapidly turning into a liability. In this context, the warning from the planning minister deserves attention because the country is running out of time to take advantage of the so-called demographic dividend, or prepare itself to meet the challenge of a very high birth rate and an increasing aging population. The projections suggest that unless governance, education and employment systems improve as fast as population, the demographic dividend will trigger social instability."
https://www.dawn.com/news/2000088/growing-numbers
Politics & governance
Editorial, "Trump in Beijing," Dawn, 14 May 2026
"Donald Trump’s arrival in Beijing marks the first China visit by a sitting US president in almost a decade. That alone makes the summit significant. But the timing has given it even greater weight. Originally planned for April but delayed because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the talks now unfold under the shadow of conflict, economic strain and renewed tariff tensions, alongside growing debate over whether American global dominance is beginning to fade as China’s influence expands."
https://www.dawn.com/news/2000089/trump-in-beijing
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