NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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War in Ukraine: Day 18 & 19
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
Increased explosions, continuing talks, and new maritime block
Zelensky’s address
On 13 March, Zelensky spoke to thousands of protestors in Italy. Many pro-Ukraine protestors in Italy gathered in large in Turin and Florence with Ukrainian flags. In the speech, President urged for more sanctions against Moscow and demanded the grant of a no-fly zone.
On 14 March, in his video address, Zelensky reiterated the demands for declaring a no-fly zone to NATO leaders. He said: “If you don't close our sky, it is only a matter of time before Russian rockets fall on your territory, on Nato territory.” The demand has been once again kept forward due to increasing airstrikes and attacks on the military base in Yavoriv.
On 14 March, the Ukrainian government announced the upcoming addresses of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. The president will deliver addresses to the US politicians using an online platform and the Senate has appreciated the address. In the address, both parties will discuss on bringing new legislation to “cripple and isolate,” Russia and to help Ukraine in carrying out the evacuation.
Ukraine-Russia Talks
On 14 March, the peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv began with the Ukrainian minister stating the negotiations, after the discussion the Deputy Head of office for President Zelensky said that Russia’s position is seen to be becoming more constructive than before. According to the Ukraine negotiator, the talks henceforth will target establishing a ceasefire and removal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
Ukraine Military advance
On 14 March, Ukraine’s military claimed to have struck four planes, three helicopters and many unmanned aircraft of Russian troops in the past 24 hours. It reported that it had attacked Russian bases and warehouses to interrupt its supply into Ukraine. Other observations made by the military were, the draining psychological condition of Russian soldiers and Russia's moves to be maintaining control of captured territories than occupying further.
Naval block
As per the recent report, UK Ministry of Defense confirmed a naval blockade being installed by Russian naval forces in Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline. This means blocking maritime trade, UK also said that a similar event had taken place in the Sea of Azov.
Disappearing Mayors
After the kidnapping of the Mayor of Melitopol as reported by Ukraine, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has been reportedly disappearing according to Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He said: “Getting zero local support, invaders turn to terror. I call on all states and international organizations to stop Russian terror against Ukraine and democracy.”
Explosions
On 13 March, a wide range of explosions took place across Ukraine. Amongst the explosions, Lviv, one of the main cities in western Ukraine was attacked rigorously by Russian missiles and airstrikes. The Lviv military officers reported that eight missiles of Russia targeted the International Peacekeeping and security centre. This centre expands to 30 km, which forms the base for training Ukraine’s forces, it also holds international forces such as NATO and the EU. Along with this, Ivano-Frankivsk was also experiencing similar attacks. These attacks are observed to be the closes of all to the borders of NATO.
On 14 March, upon the attacks in Lviv, the Mayor of Lviv reported: “I had a meeting with Polish politicians and Polish mayors. I sent a very strong message, 20km (12.5 miles) from the European Union’s borders. We need military equipment, we need bullet-proof vests, we need [helmets]… We need together support and help, help [for] refugees, and help [for] Ukrainian troops.” He recommended for the no-fly zone to be declared by NATO, as the war nears NATO borders.
On 13 March 1300 Ukrainian troops were declared dead by Ukraine President and Mariupol has been further captured by Russian troops. Ukraine’s centuries-old orthodox monastery in eastern Ukraine was shelled by Russia using aerial bombs, causing severe damage to the building. Many people including the refugees, monks and children were evacuated. As Russia advances further into Mariupol, the count of death have gone up due to attacks, shortage of water and lack of essential supplies, killing close to 2100 people.
Evacuation
On 13 March, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine reported the evacuation of 13,000 Ukrainians through the laid humanitarian corridors. Ukraine’s National Rail Company reported the attack on a passenger train that was used in evacuating refugees from eastern Ukraine. In the attack, the conductor was killed and other employees were badly injured.
On 14 March, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine reported that after thousand were evacuated on the previous day. More than 140,000 civilians were confirmed to be rescued from the conflict zone mainly from the front lines through humanitarian corridors.
Other developments
On 13 March, the Regional Council of Kherson voted against the independence referendum of Russia. It passed a resolution confirming that the city of Kherson remained part of Ukraine. The Deputy Head of the Council said: “never recognise attempts to create a 'people's republic' in the Kherson region and seize part of Ukraine.” Previously Ukraine Foreign Minister tweeted that: “Russians [are] now desperately try to organise a sham 'referendum' for a fake 'people's republic' in Kherson.”
On 13 March, Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had talks discussing the possibility of installing peace to end the war with Russia. Zelensky asked for assistance in releasing the kidnapped mayor of Melitopol.
On 13 March, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said that Ukraine will settle down only for negotiations and will not surrender to Russia. He also warned that, with the progression of Russia, Kyiv needed more arms, strong air defense systems, and supplies from the West to withhold and carry out the evacuation. He claimed that despite continuous shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine is still in control of the city.
On 14 March, the Turkish Foreign Minister urged Russia to allow the evacuation of Turkish citizens cornered in Mariupol Mosque. He asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to support the process. So far 86 Turks were said to be taking cover, which includes 34 children.
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Russia to China
On 14 March, an important development of the week is Russia seeking military and economic help from China. As per recent news reports Russia’s ask for economic assistance is to help mitigate its economy from sanctions. Till now China has maintained a neutral position in the Ukraine war, but the economic relations have consistently increased between Russia and China in past year. Upon Russia’s move, the West has raised alarm and assured to take necessary steps to keep China away. According to Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, denied Russia asking for military help from China and said: “independent potential to continue its special operation in Ukraine.” He also added: “Russia has sufficient potential for conducting the special military operation in Ukraine. The operation is proceeding in accordance with the original plan and will be completed on time and in full.”
Death claims and accusations of the UN
On 13 March, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that 3,687 military operating spaces have been attacked, which includes 99 aircraft, 1,194 tanks, combat vehicles and hundreds of artillery guns. In the attack on the Yavoriv training base, Russia claimed to have killed 180 foreign mercenaries and caused large destruction on weapons supplied by external powers to Ukraine.
On 13 March, after the accusation of kidnapping Ukraine’s mayor of Melitopol, the Russian military has positioned new mayor Galina Danilchenko in Melitopol. Russia has also decided to temporarily shut down its stock market till 18 March as western sanctions mount over its economy.
On 14 March, the Defense Ministry confirmed 20 being killed in the Donetsk region by the Ukrainian military, it said: “it appears the bosses of Ukraine across the ocean are giving orders to the Ukrainian army.” But, Ukraine has denied suck killings. Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the attack of Ukraine using a Tochka-U missile on Donetsk. On the same, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia said: “But the under-secretary-general did not find a single word to tell about today’s strike by a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile with a cluster bomb at central Donetsk. The strike killed 20 and wounded 35 civilians. Neither did any of the representatives of Western countries find a single word about it.”
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 13 March, US President Joe Biden spoke to France’s President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. The White House released a statement about the two leaders’ discussion and how they “reviewed recent diplomatic engagements and underscored their commitment to hold Russia accountable for its actions.” The two leaders also pledged their support to the people and the government of Ukraine.
On the same day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned a missile attack by Russia on Ukraine’s border with Poland. Blinken said: “We condemn the Russian Federation’s missile attack on the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security in Yavoriv, close to Ukraine’s border with Poland. The brutality must stop.” Also, on 13 March, Biden authorized USD 200 million to procure additional military equipment for Ukraine. The announcement comes as Washington had already authorized USD 350 million worth of military equipment on 26 February.
On 13 March, US journalist and filmmaker Brent Renaud were killed while covering the war in Ukraine. Kyiv’s police Chief Andriy Nebytov said the Russian soldiers targeted Renaud and two other journalists. Fellow reporter Juan Arredondo said the soldiers indiscriminately fired at them while they were going to photograph refugees leaving Irpin.
Also, on 13 March, the warfare in Ukraine opened a civil war within the US Republican Party as candidates exchanged attacks on each other’s past comments praising Putin. Republican Senate candidate targeted Republican rival representative Ted Budd saying: “While Ukrainians bled and died ... Congressman Budd excused their killer.” Budd responded, saying: “Ted Budd presented the sort of level-headed assessment of a foreign crisis you would expect from a US Senator because he knows these are serious times that require strength and substance, not the empty soundbites.”
On 13 March, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated that he would discuss the war in Ukraine with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at talks in Ankara on 14 March. Turkey has voiced its support for Ukraine and called the invasion unacceptable; however, it also opposed sanctions on Moscow. Erdogan said: “Aside from bilateral ties, an exchange of views is expected to be held on other regional and international issues, primarily Ukraine and Turkey-EU relations.”
On 14 March, the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that China would face the consequences if it helped Russia evade sanctions. Sullivan would be meeting China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome. As reported by Reuters: “Sullivan plans in his meeting with Yang to make Washington’s concerns clear while mapping out the consequences and growing isolation China would face globally if it increases its support of Russia.”
At the same time, in response to Sullivan’s concerns on Beijing’s role in the crisis, China’s Spokesperson Liu Pengyu said: “We support and encourage all efforts that are conducive to a peaceful settlement of the crisis.” However, China has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has also abstained from voting at the UN Security Council and General Assembly.
On 14 March, days after Poland welcomed about a million refugees from Ukraine, an article in the BBC talked about how the country now feels the strain of increasing immigrants. Zamosc’s mayor Andrzej Wnuk mentioned: “We thought there would be the first wave of refugees and then we would get significant support from the government and the EU, but it turns out we were left alone. We need financial help or the quality of our hospitality will drop drastically.” Wnuk mentioned the shortcomings of financial help as they only had enough handouts for two weeks.
Nevertheless, On the same day, as the war continued, an army of Polish volunteers joined to help facilitate the refugees. The volunteers have been providing food and blankets that they received from all over Europe. At the same time, a team of hospital medics from the UK flew to Poland to bring 21 Ukrainian children with cancer back to England. The hospital said: “The families were so incredibly grateful and the stories they told were horrific. We were just so pleased to do something to help.”
On 14 March, the UK announced a new visa scheme under which there would be no limit to the number of Ukrainian refugees who can live with UK host families. The scheme will benefit the thousands of displaced refugees in the country. Furthermore, the UK government stated, it would grant GBP 350 a month from the government as a “thank you” for helping the people out. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: “I’m pleased that we’re doing this because as a country we have a very proud record of offering sanctuary to people from wars and from conflicts.”
However, the Welsh Refugee Council Chief Executive, Andrea Cleaver, said the UK government was not doing enough compared to the EU countries. She said: “Whereas, in the UK at the moment, we have only taken in 3,000 people, through a visa route, not through a refugee route, and that is really quite disheartening, it is really quite shocking, frankly.”
Also, on 14 March, the UK’s Ministry of Defence talked about the 2,500,000 refugees that were forced from their homes and the indiscriminate shelling that had caused widespread destruction in Ukraine. The Ministry also talked about the UN reports that stated 1,663 civilian war casualties.
From Belarus, on 14 March, the Belarusian armed forces pushed asylum seekers towards Poland and Ukraine. The asylum seekers were mainly from the Middle East and were trapped after the war broke out. As reported by the Guardian: “a group of Belarusian soldiers on 5 March to leave the building at gunpoint and given two options: crossing the border into Poland, where guards have beaten them back or entering Ukraine, one of them said.” This was the first time the guards had entered the camp and forced them to choose between the two options.
From Italy, on 14 March, Pope Francis condemned the invasion of Ukraine. He said the “unacceptable armed aggression” had to stop. Pope Francis addressed the issues at St Peter’s Square, where thousands had gathered for the Sunday blessings. Regardless, Pope Francis did not mention Russia but stated words like “armed aggression” and “no valid strategic reason,” hinting towards Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
IMF: On 13 March, the International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva talked about the possibility of Russia defaulting on its debts in the wake of the unprecedented sanctions and its invasion of Ukraine. However, she assured that both the debt nor war would not trigger a global financial crisis. A total amount of USD 120 billion was the debt owed by Russia. At the same time, Russia even asked the IMF if it could access the USD 1.4 billion emergency fund approved for Ukraine if it won the war and installed a government.
EUROZONE: On 14. March, the Finance Ministers of the Eurozone, as reported by Reuters, said: "on Monday the European Commission's view that fiscal policy should move from supportive to neutral in 2023, but that they must be ready with more cash should the war in Ukraine make it necessary." The 19 Euro area members would meet to discuss the implications of war and its risk to the EU economic growth.
NATO: On 13 March, NATO's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned of a possibility that Russia planned to use chemical weapons in Ukraine. He said: "Now that these false allegations have been made, we must remain vigilant because it is possible that Russia itself could be conducting missions with chemical weapons under this tissue of lie." At the same time, Stoltenberg rejected Zelenskyy's calls for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
INSTAGRAM: On 13 March, the social media app Instagram was blocked in Russia after the country banned Facebook and Twitter. Russia justified its ban saying, the app allowed calls for violence against Russian troops and Putin. Moscow further encouraged its platforms called Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki to be used in place of the banned apps.
INDIA: On 13 March, India announced temporarily shifting its embassy from Ukraine to Poland amid the deteriorating security situation. The Ministry of External Affairs said it was only a temporary shift and added: "The situation will be reassessed in the light of further developments."
AUSTRALIA AND NETHERLANDS: On 14 March, Australia and the Netherlands launched a legal proceeding against Russia for downing the civil Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in 2014. The complaint was lodged through the International Civil Aviation Organization, and if found guilty, Russia could be penalized by the UN organizations. In addition, the two countries sought compensation and an apology from Russia that saw the death of 298 people, including 38 Australians.
OIL: On 14 March, As Ukrainian and Russian negotiators were set to discuss the crisis virtually, oil prices fell to about USD seven a barrel. The recent lockdowns imposed in China are an added reason for the drop in prices. Analyst at CMC Markets Tina Teng said: "Oil prices might continue moderating this week as investors have been digesting the impact of sanctions on Russia, along with parties showing signs of negotiation towards (a) ceasefire."
References:
“BBC Live” BBC, 14 March 2022
“Russia’s operation in Ukraine proceeds according to plan — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 14 March 2022
“Not a single word said by UN deputy chief about shelling of Donetsk — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 14 March 2022
“Russia resolutely condemns shelling of Donetsk by Ukraine — MFA statement,” TASS, 14 March 2022
“Tochka-U missile debris cause massive devastation in Donetsk,” TASS, 14 March 2022
Andrea Shalal, Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom, “China faces consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions, U.S. says,” Reuters, 14 March 2022
Mark Lowen, “Poland feels the strain of Ukraine's refugees,” BBC, 14 March 2022
Kevin Jackson, “Ukraine war: Poland's army of volunteers help fleeing refugees,” BBC, 14 March 2022
“Southampton hospital medics fly 21 Ukrainian children with cancer to England,” BBC, 14 March 2022
George Bowden & Alice Evans, "Ukraine war: 'No cap' on refugees under new UK visa scheme,” BBC, 14 March 2022
“Ukraine: My hopes to host refugees delayed by UK government,” BBC, 14 March 2022
“Turkey's Erdogan, Germany's Scholz to hold talks in Ankara on Ukraine,” Reuters, 14 March 2022
Lorenzo Tondo, “Fears grow of new crisis as refugees in Belarus driven into Ukraine,” The Guardian, 14 March 2022
“‘Stop this massacre’: pope condemns invasion of Ukraine,” The Guardian, 14 March 2022
Andrea Shalal, “Russian default no longer 'improbable', but no trigger for global financial crisis- IMF,” Reuters, 14 March 2022
Jan Strupczewski, “Euro zone to back broadly neutral, but flexible 2023 fiscal stance amid Ukraine war,” Reuters, 14 March 2022
“India to temporarily shift its embassy in Ukraine to Poland,” Reuters, 13 March 2022
Sarah Martin, “Australia and the Netherlands launch legal action against Russia over MH17 disaster,” The Guardian, 13 March 2022
“Ukraine: Talks with Russia could yield results in days, Kyiv says — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2022
“Brent Renaud: US journalist and filmmaker killed in Ukraine,” BBC, 13 March 2022
David Morgan, “Ukraine war becomes a cudgel in Republican Party's internal conflict,” Reuters, 13 March 2022
“U.S. Authorizes $200M in Additional Military Aid to Ukraine,” Moscow Times, 13 March 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Joeana Cera Matthews
THE UK
National Museum Wales defends its decision to display Black Lives Matter placards
On 13 March, the former UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage criticized the National Museum Wales for displaying placards from the Black Lives Matter protests. He stated that the movement was Marxist and violent, and its motive was to defund the police. However, the Museum's Director General, David Andersson, upheld his decision and said: "Now if ever is the time to defend democracy and cultural rights; we must collect far more of the histories of black communities in Wales, not less." Further, National Museum Wales public history and archaeology head, Sioned Huges, defended Anderson. Huges expressed that the collection of contemporary material displaying the placards, photographs, and accounts from activists was crucial to tell the story of the Black Lives Matter movement. (“St Fagans: Museum hits back after Farage rebuke over BLM display,” BBC, 13 March 2022)
British Academy Film Awards Ceremony, amid the war in Ukraine
On 13 March, the movie the Power of Dog won two honors at the BAFTA ceremony while Dune bagged up most of the prizes. The award ceremony was held at London's Royal Albert Hall. References of the war in Ukraine were visible in the ceremony as nominees wore ribbons and badges in blue and yellow to depict the Ukrainian flag. A few nominees even spoke about the crisis on the red carpet and on stage. Actor Benedict Cumberbatch who arrived with theatre director Sophie Hunter, wore a Ukrainian flag badge at the 75th ceremony. (Marie-Louise Gumuchian, "'The Power of the Dog', 'Dune' triumph at BAFTA Awards,” Reuters, 14 March 2022)
THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Tender for a new unit at the Dukovany nuclear power plant
On 13 March, the Czeck Industry Ministry Spokesperson Vojtech Srunka said: “Industry Minister Jozef Sikela will issue an order next week for the tender for a new unit at Dukovany nuclear power plant.” The new unit is intended to replace structures slated for retirement in the coming decades. Concerning that nuclear energy accounts for 40 per cent power supply, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said in February that he expects a supplier for the new Dukovany unit to be picked by 2024, construction permits obtained by 2029, and the unit to be operational by 2036. (“Czech ministry to order launch of nuclear power plant tender -spokesman”, Reuters, 13 March 2022)
REGIONAL
Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis visits Istanbul
On 13 March, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis agreed to improve ties, despite the long-running disagreements between the two countries. The Turkish presidency stated: "the benefits of increased cooperation between the two countries" in light of "the evolution of the European security architecture." After the meeting, Mitsotakis said: "I believe we set the foundations to improve our relations." For years, Ankara and Athens have had issues over maritime, energy, the division of Cyprus, the status of the Aegean islands, and migration. The two leaders agreed for further talks and emphasized building a positive agenda in the economic sector. (“Turkey and Greece talk Ukraine, pledge to improve ties,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2022)