NIAS Area Studies
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Photo : Bernd von Jutrczenka/Pool via Reuters
War in Ukraine: Day 21
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address to the US Congress, Attacks in Kyiv, and a derailed evacuation
Ukraine President addresses the US Congress
On 16 March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the US Congress. In the address, he highlighted three key points. One, he urged on sanctioning of politicians and requested the American companies to withdraw business from Russia. He expressed his gratitude for US President Joe Biden’s aid supply to Ukraine. Two, he brought back the incidents of Pearl Harbour and 9/11, comparing the situation with that of Ukraine’s present day. He also emphasized on jet fighters and “advanced air defense systems.” Three, he appealed to President Joe Biden to show up as leader of the world and fight for Europe. He said: “Peace in your country no longer depends only on you and your people. President Biden, you are the leader of your nation. I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means being the leader of peace.”
Apart from the address, Zelensky tweeted announcing the linking of the European electricity grid with Ukraine to counter the power outage due to Russian shelling. He also called out the senior Russian officials to quit their post and to stand against the invasion of Ukraine. He said: “If you remain in office, if you do not oppose the war, the international community will deprive you of everything…Everything you have earned over the years. This is already being done.”
Ukraine-Russia Talks
On 16 March, Advisor to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the offer made by Russia on adopting “Austrian style” neutrality. The negotiator of the process said that the model should be in terms of Ukraine with “verified security guarantees.” On the other side, the Kremlin spokesperson expressed interest to sign a peace deal to hold an army and navy along the borders of Austria and Sweden.
Ukraine’s military advance
On 16 March, Ukraine’s armed forces released a report on launching attacks on Russian groups involved in occupying territories. The report stated that, despite Russia targeting bombs at populated cites, the troops have failed to go further in cities Donestk, Luhansk and Mykolaiv. Similarly, UK Defense Ministry said: “..it is likely Russia is struggling to conduct offensive operations in the face of sustained Ukraine resistance.” Kyiv’s Interior Minister announced the killing of the fourth Russian General in the fight at Mariupol, a similar announcement was made by President Zelensky on death of another Russian General. Till now Russia has engaged 20 Major Generals in mission in Ukraine.
Attacks continue
On 16 March, the Ukraine armed forces announced the rockets launched by Russia, while a group of civilians were being moved from Zaporizhzhya. They reported firing of BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system on civilians at 13:30 GMT.
As of 16 March, Russian troops have advanced their attacks to Kyiv, Mariupol, and Kharkiv. Although Russia claimed to have captured the Kherson region and Odesa, there have been no ground developments.
On 16 March, a 35-hour curfew was declared in Kyiv. While the three Prime Ministers met in Ukraine, Russia continued shelling Ukrainian cities through its artillery and warplanes.
According to recent reports, a 12-storey suburban building in Kyiv was targetted, injuring two and resulting in evacuation of 35 people from the block. Apart from these, a series of explosions were recorded in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. In Mariupol, close to 400 patients along with doctors have been held in capture in hospital. With the attacks furthering in Mariupol, the living possibility has narrowed, risking the lives of 400,000 people to go without water, electricity, gas, no entry for aid and no exit from the place.
Evacuation
On 16 March, Ukrainian Presidential Adviser reported that close to 30,000 people have been evacuated from various Ukrainian cities using the humanitarian corridor. Most of the civilians belonged to the city of Mariupol and Sumy. The evacuation took place in midst of Russian blockades of buses and private cars.
On 16 March, students from Nigeria have been reported to be cornered by Russian forces in southern Ukraine city, Kherson. As per the report, more than 100 African students have been stranded and have requested the Nigerian government for rescue. The Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Geoffery Onyeama had previously said that the ministry was in contact with Ukraine and Russia to evacuate students.
Other Developments
On 16 March, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that Ukraine has incurred more USD 500 billion damages from the start of the Russian invasion and asserted that Russia must provide relief to restore Ukraine post-war.
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
On 16 March, during a broadcasted government meeting, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called out that the efforts taken by the West in the Ukraine war will not help acquire global dominance or separate Russia. On the sanctions imposed by the US on Central Bank, he countered by stating that Russia had sufficient financial resources to run its economy. On the special military operation launched by Russia, President Putin said that the operation was proceeding successfully and criticised Ukraine for engaging in ethnic cleansing in the Donbas region. He said: “A massive assault on Donbas and then on Crimea was only a matter of time and our Armed Forces thwarted those plans.”
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stating: “they say that the negotiations are not easy for obvious reasons. But nevertheless, there is some hope of reaching a compromise,”
On 16 March, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency Head said that while Russia’s position in the world is being defined, Ukraine’s fate will be decided soon. His speech highlighted the sovereignty aspect and stressed that Russia will not compensate when it came to sovereignty. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian troops assisted in the evacuation of 36,000 civilians who were found trapped in the west of Ukraine. The Ministry also released a video of the destruction of Ukraine’s weapons and ammunition depot in Chernigov region. In the statement released: “The Russian Armed Forces’ artillery unit conducted a fire mission, carrying out a pinpoint strike that destroyed a combined depot site containing missile and artillery weapons, as well as up to 20 pieces of weapons and military equipment.”
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
EU leaders in Kyiv
On 15 March, leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia visited Kyiv by train to extend their ‘unequivocal support’ to Ukraine. As the talks took place, explosives could be heard across the western part of the capital as fighting continued. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said: “The main goal of our visit and the main message of our mission is to say to our Ukrainian friends that they are not alone.”
Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister JarosÅ‚aw KaczyÅ„ski mentioned: “I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - Nato, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory.” Prime Minister Petr Fiala further talked about a broad package of support for the citizens of Ukraine. At the same time, the EU officials in Brussels were nervous about the leader’s meeting, as other members were not notified until a few minutes before the trip was announced.
Poland
On 15 March, with the invasion continuing and the number of refugees increasing, Poland was worried about a possible spillover of Russian aggression. The BBC reported: “In terms of security, alarm bells are also ringing. Over the weekend, Russia bombed a Ukrainian military base in Yavoriv, just 16 km (10 miles) from the Polish border.” Poland has now become a critical link for the West and Russia as it is the easternmost flank of the NATO alliance.
The US
On 15 March, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution supporting a war crime investigation on Putin. The resolution was headed by Senator Lindsey Graham and was passed by a voice note after negotiations. Graham said: “The next step for me is to work with our British allies and hopefully others to create an intel cell that will make available to the public Russian military units engaged in war crimes and start naming their commanders. A name-and-shame campaign is in the making.”
On 16 March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated: “One way or the other, Ukraine will be there and at some point Putin won’t.” Although his comments came as the US was working towards limiting the war, he added: “working as hard as we can to limit, to stop, to put an end to this war of choice that Russia is committing.”
At the same time, on 16 March, according to the UN data released, the US had only accepted a few hundred refugees. US President Joe Biden said the US was ready to accept refugees but further mentioned that Europe should still be the primary destination for refugees. In response to Biden's comments, Representative Raul Ruiz said: “The crisis could overwhelm the countries currently hosting many of the Ukrainian refugees, and the United States must lead in the effort to assist these countries in helping the vulnerable escape war.”
The UK
On 15 March, the UK government announced 370 new sanctions against Russia, including on Putin. The UK had already implemented a few sanctions earlier concerning trade restrictions and an additional 35 per cent tariff on vodka. However, this time the government fast-tracked the new sanctions as it had received criticism for being too slow. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We are holding them to account for their complicity in Russia’s crimes in Ukraine…Working closely with our allies, we will keep increasing the pressure on Putin and cut off funding for the Russian war machine.”
On 16 March, the Church of England put pressure on the French energy giant, TotalEnergies, for their continuing services in Moscow. The church said it would reconsider its shareholdings in the company as they had not withdrawn from Russia. The church stated: “in response to the attack on Ukraine by Russia and supporting the sanctions announced by the UK and other governments.” The church’s letter came after French NGOs warned to take legal action against TotalEnergies over their role in possible human rights abuses.
Germany
On 15 March, Germany’s cyber security agency BSI warned about the anti-virus software developed by Russia-based Kaspersky Lab. BSI said the software posed a severe risk of a successful hacking attack. The BSI alleged that the Russians could coerce the company to hack into IT systems and hack the server to launch cyber attacks.
Lithuania
On 16 March, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda said that the country was willing to stop importing oil and gas from Russia. This was aligned with the EU countries planning to tighten penalties on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. However, Lithuania received 63 per cent of its oil imports from Russia in 2019, and in response, Nauseda said: “It would create some problems, but those problems would not be critical.”
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
Singapore
On 16 March, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan talked about the war in Ukraine and hoped China would play a critical role in ending the war. He said: “The big issue now is what decisions and actions China takes…I hope they will assert their influence with Chinese characteristics, which means quietly and discreetly, but effectively.” Singapore played a crucial role against Russia’s war on Ukraine as its banks sanctioned Mosow’s entities and trade financing.
China
On 16 March, China accused Taiwan of taking advantage of the war in Ukraine. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said: “The Democratic Progressive Party authorities are using the Ukraine issue to validate their existence and piggyback on a hot issue.” China’s government called on Taiwan for its humanitarian aid for Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia.
Western brands
On 16 March, a report by the BBC talked about how a few western brands could not easily withdraw from Russia. Certain brands like Marks and Spencer, Burger King, and hotel groups Marriott and Accor were restricted by complex franchise deals that prevented them from withdrawing. BBC reported: “…brands are locked into legal franchise agreements, making it difficult for them to remove their name from Russia’s High Streets and shopping malls.”
NATO
On 16 March, at the emergency NATO defence meeting in Brussels, the US and the alliance pledged their support to continue fighting off Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “We need to reset our military posture for this new reality.” Stoltenberg’s comments came as the alliance was looking to reset its own security to adapt to the “new reality.”
International Court of Justice
On 16 March, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said it would rule on the Russian invasion lawsuit. The ruling would be the first since Russia invaded Ukraine, the judgement would be binding; however, speculation arose if Moscow would abide by it. Russia earlier had claimed it was acting in self-defence and justified its invasion. The session comes as Russia intensified its attacks on residential buildings in Kyiv and the war's displacement of about three million people.
References
“BBC Live,” BBC, 16 March 2022
“Russia’s military operation in Ukraine develops successfully, goes to plan — Putin,” TASS, 16 March 2022
“Russian forces knocked out communications, reconnaissance nodes in Vinnitsa — ministry,” TASS, 14 March 2022
“Kiev’s attack against Donetsk with Tochka-U Mar 14 was bloody terror act — Putin,” TASS, 14 March 2022
“Russian military destroys weapons depot in Ukraine’s Chernigov region,” TASS, 14 March 2022
“Ukraine war: European leaders risk train ride to meet Zelensky,” BBC, 16 March 2022
Daniel Boffey and Jennifer Rankin, “‘Europe stands with you’: EU leaders vow support for Ukraine during Kyiv visit,” The Guardian, 16 March 2022.
“Russia-Ukraine latest: Peace talks ‘realistic,’ but more time needed, says Zelensky,” The New York Post, 16 March 2022
Ted Hesson, “Explainer: Why isn't the U.S. accepting more Ukrainian refugees?,” Reuters, 16 March 2022
“Germany issues hacking warning for users of Russian anti-virus software Kaspersky,” Reuters, 16 March 2022
Victoria Craig, “Lithuania threatens to stop using Russian oil and gas,” BBC, 16 March 2022
“Church of England pressures TotalEnergies over Russia business,” BBC, 16 March 2022
Katya Adler, “Ukraine war: Fears Russian aggression could spill into Poland,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Jordain Carney, “Senate passes resolution supporting Putin war crime probe,” The Hill, 15 March 2022
“Ukraine war: Russia's ex-president among 370 new UK sanctions targets,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Michael Race, “The Western brands unable to leave Russia,” BBC, 15 March 2022
Robin Emmott and Ingrid Melander, “NATO vows more help for Ukraine,” Reuters, 16 March 2022.
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
GERMANY
Fresh debts to be incurred in the new budget
On 15 March, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany's upcoming budget plans for 2022, which is set to incur USD 108.8 billion in debt. The current draft's key points have been rendered obsolete due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, the budget does not account for the impact of the conflict in the region, surging energy prices, and the costs of assisting refugees fleeing from Ukraine. The Finance Ministry has prepared a "core budget," which the federal cabinet is expected to approve on Wednesday before sending it to the parliament. It allocates EUR 457.6 billion in overall spending. In addition, the government decided to create a separate fund for military up-gradation. The Chancellor earlier announced this, and the fund would be raised through loans. Nevertheless, it will not be included in the budget to increase the debt ratio further. (Sabine Kinkartz, “Germany's massive budget increase: Who foots the bill?,” Deutsche Welle, 15 March 2022)
IRELAND
Meta fined EUR 17 million for data breach
On 16 March, Ireland’s data regulator stated that it would be imposing a EUR 17 million fine on Meta platforms. The country’s Data Protection Commissioner said: “Meta Platforms failed to have in place appropriate technical and organisational measures which would enable it to readily demonstrate the security measures that it implemented in practice to protect EU users’ data.” The decision came after an inquiry in 2018 on the 12 data breach notifications, which were then submitted to the regulator. The Data Protection Commissioner has many other ongoing investigations into Meta; Dublin regulates the internet giants as their European Headquarters are based in Ireland. (“Irish watchdog fines Meta 17 million euros for data breach,” Reuters, 16 March 2022)
RUSSIA
Central Bank suspends purchase of Gold
On 15 March, the Russian central bank suspended gold purchases from banks to fulfil the rising household demand for precious metals. This is the latest attempt by the government to control the adverse effects of Western sanctions. In a statement, the bank said: "Currently, households' demand for buying physical gold in bars has increased, driven, in particular, by the abolition of value-added tax on these operations." VTB Bank analysts said the central bank's move appeared reasonable, considering that the loss of access to USD 300 billion in reserves which meant gold's share of accessible reserves had climbed to 40 per cent from 21 per cent.. (“Russian c.bank halts purchases of gold from banks to meet household demand,” Reuters, 15 March 2022)
ENVIRONMENT
Europe accelerates clean energy missions
On 15 March, Europe's high dependency on Russia’s gas has accelerated its transition to cleaner energy sources. The EU expects to save about one-third of its gas this year by reducing fossil fuel demand. It would reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by installing solar panels, wind turbines, making buildings more energy-efficient, and installing heat pumps. European Director of the Regulatory Assistance Project Jan Rosenow recommended an overhaul of permit processes for renewable energy to help decarbonize the power sector. They further suggested a change in subsidies from gas boilers to heat pumps, and an information campaign to encourage energy conservation at home. (Ajit Niranjan, “Russia-Ukraine war risks greater carbon pollution despite boost to clean energy,” Deutsche Welle, 15 March 2022)