NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Reuters
War in Ukraine: Day 34
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in Danish Parliament and continuing attacks
Zelensky’s address
On 24 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his virtual address to the Danish Parliament demanded the imposition of stricter and tightening sanctions put on Russia. He recommended blocking trade, oil commodities and closing down the port access to Russian ships. In the address, he also highlighted the worsening situation in Mariupol, where more than 100,000 people had been cornered by Russia using force and shelling.
Ukraine Military advance
On 29 March, Ukraine’s armed forces warned against taking action relating to the treatment of prisoners of war if found to be violating. In the statement, it said: “All information that comes is checked by the armed forces of Ukraine and, if there is a violation, appropriate legal decisions will be made regarding that military personnel who violated the laws on the treatment of prisoners of war.”
Negotiation talks
In the ongoing talk with Russia in Turkey, Ukraine has asked for neutral status to acquire a security guarantee. This means Ukraine will not engage in any military alliances or host exercises, it will also include the discussion on deciding the status of Crimea. According to the negotiator, Oleksander Chaly: “If we manage to consolidate these key provisions, and for us, this is the most fundamental, then Ukraine will be in a position to actually fix its current status as a non-bloc and non-nuclear state in the form of permanent neutrality.
Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 29 March, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said the plans to open three corridors for evacuation from Mariupol, which has remained cut from basic necessities, making it lives of civilians difficult.
Other developments
Adviser to Ukraine’s President Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak brought out the topics of discussion in the talks happening between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The key points were “security guarantees and organisation of ceasefire” to solve the humanitarian problem.
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
On 29 March, Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin after the talks said that Russia will be drawing back its military from the cities around Kyiv and Chernihiv. This decision has seen the first progress from the talks. In the press conference he said: In order to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and achieving the ultimate goal of agreeing and signing (an) agreement, a decision was made to radically, by a large margin, reduce military activity in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions.”
On the same day, Russia announced the dismissal of 10 diplomats from the Baltic states as a countermove to Latvia’s removal of Russian diplomats. It accused the actor of Baltic states by stating it was "provocative" and "groundless." Russia also claimed to have destroyed one of the fuel depots in Ukraine in the Rivne region using cruise missiles.
On 29 March, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Information Ministry reported that the centre of Mariupol city was fully under the control of the DPR forces. It also disclosed that close to 94 towns in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions were liberated. In the statement: “The forces of the LPR’s People’s Militia have liberated 94 towns in the LPR and DPR. Several areas remain under the Ukrainian force’s control.” Apart from this, TASS stated that since the invasion 490,000 people had been moved out of the eastern Ukraine regions into Russia. The movement rate is observed to be increasing faster than estimated.
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 29 March, the Eureporter stated that the officials of the US and Germany met to discuss LNG and hydrogen supplies as ways to increase Berlin’s energy supply. The war in Eastern Europe has led European countries to look for alternative energy sources and move away from their dependency on Russia. The meeting would consist of US Commerce Department officials and executives from LNG and hydrogen energy companies. This comes as US President Joe Biden had promised to help Europe get rid of Russian gas supplies.
On the same day, the US and the allies said they were planning new sanctions targeting sectors that would directly impact Russia’s economy, which was critical for sustaining its invasion of Ukraine. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said: “In addition to sanctioning companies in sectors that enable the Kremlin’s malign activities, we also plan to take actions to disrupt their critical supply chains.” He also mentioned that the US plans to target alternative military suppliers that continue to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition used in Ukraine.
Also, on 29 March, Biden announced the proposal of USD 6.9 billion allocated to address the issues in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Xinhua news agency reported: “This funding will enhance the capabilities and readiness of US Forces, (NATO) allies, and regional partners in the face of Russian aggression.” Also, in the budget, the US has kept USD 682 million to support Ukraine’s military needs, such as “security, energy, cybersecurity issues, disinformation, macroeconomic stabilisation, and civil society resilience.”
On the same day, Biden mentioned that it would be better to wait and see Russia implement its plans to de-escalate the conflict. Biden said: “I don’t read anything into it until I see what their actions are…. We’ll see if they follow through with what they’re suggesting. There are negotiations that continued today, one in Turkey and others.”
The UK
On 29 March, the UK’s cyber security centre said it was continuously providing services to Ukraine to support it against Russian cyber attacks. The move could likely cause Russia to attack the UK’s interests in retaliation. Therefore the UK’s Cyber Security Centre said: “We have no evidence that the Russian state intends to suborn Russian commercial products and services to cause damage to UK interests, but the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Earlier this month, Italy announced a warning to replace any Russian-related software or hardware that could pose a severe threat by cyber attacks. The UK said it would be donating bomb disposal kits to Ukraine on the same day. The kit includes first-aid packages and equipment for neutralizing explosive devices.
Finland
On 29 March, the government of Finland said it was preparing for a campaign of disinformation that is speculated to be launched by Russia. This disinformation campaign would supposedly influence the country’s debate over joining NATO. Recently, the people of Finland have been more supportive of their country joining NATO since Russia attacked Ukraine. Finland’s Security and Intelligence Service Director Antti Pelttari said: “Public authorities must secure the conditions for a full and frank debate without intimidation, and ensure that outsiders are unable to influence security policy decisions made by Finland.”
Europe expelling diplomats
On 29 March, BBC reported on European countries expelling Russian diplomats from their respective countries. The list included Belgium, Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, and North Macedonia, which expelled diplomats, officials, and other representatives from their countries.
Poland
On 29 March, Poland’s government said it had approved a bill that would ban the country from importing Russian coal. The EU has been pushing its members to impose an embargo on purchasing Russian energy. Poland’s Spokesperson Piotr Muller further discussed how the country is the EU’s largest coal producer, but a few of its heating plants depend on Russian coal.
The EU
On 29 March, the EU was working towards setting up centres on its borders to Ukraine to receive and distribute refugees that were escaping the war. These centres would provide the needed healthcare to member states treating the refugees. EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said: “We are working closely with the Member States and (the World Health Organization’s Europe office) to set up triage hubs directly at the border for patients in the most affected Member States to speed up the transfers.” Kyriakides mentioned that almost 4 million Ukrainians had fled their homeland and had moved toward Western Europe.
Peace talks in Istanbul
On 29 March, the delegates of Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul as Turkey called for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: “As members of the delegations, you have taken on a historic responsibility. The whole world is awaiting the good news that will come from you.” Erdogan further mentioned how there was a possibility of solving if both the parties put an end to the tragedy. The meetings are being held in Dolmabahce, at a government building on the shores of the Bosporus strait.
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
Impact on the space industry
On 29 March, a report by Al Jazeera mentioned how the war in Ukraine could impact private and state investments due to the war. Due to the war, many launches and other programs have remained grounded. However, the report argues that this would de-link the East and West and increase investments to work without Russia’s supply chains or investments. Nevertheless, this would impact the space industry as Russia provided cheaper, ready-made launching services.
Japan
On 29 March, Japan said it would ban Russian-bound exports of luxury cars, and goods in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The ban would be implemented from 5 April; this would affect Japan, as well as automobiles, which account for half of its exports to Russia. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said the list would: “…span 19 categories, from cars worth more than 6 million yen ($48,630) to jewellery, watches, cosmetics, liquor and art priced at more than 40,000 yen19 categories, from cars worth more than 6 million yen ($48,630) to jewellery, watches, cosmetics, liquor and art priced at more than 40,000 yen.”
Singapore
On 29 March, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong met with US President Joe Biden and discussed the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Indo-Pacific. Biden mentioned how Singapore had been actively voicing its concern about the war and had imposed sanctions on Russia. He said: “We are very happy with what Singapore has done, and I think that the key is going to be to continue looking for ways in which we can expand our cooperation on this and other issues.”
UAE
On 29 March, Dubai’s state carrier, Emirates, stated that it would continue its flights to Russia until its owners stopped it. Emirates President Tim Clark said: “We carry humanitarian goods in our holds. We’ve got NGOs travelling in and out of Russia. We’ve got the diplomatic community going in and out of Russia...so all we’re doing is being an enabler, facilitator, without taking a political position on this for the time being.” Clark mentioned how the sanctions did not impact the Emirates as the sanctions did not apply in the East as they did in the West.
The UN
On 29 March, the head of the UN atomic watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said he was in Ukraine to monitor the safety and security of nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Grossi would meet senior government officials and travel to one of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Grossi said: “Just crossed the border into Ukraine to start IAEA’s mission…We must act now to help prevent the danger of a nuclear accident.” He further mentioned that the IAEA planned to ship critical safety and security supplies to Ukraine to avert a nuclear accident. He also talked about how the war-induced unprecedented danger to nuclear power plants and other facilities with radioactive materials.
Asian and European markets
On 29 March, equities rose in Asia and Europe, bringing hope as Russia and Ukraine negotiators met in Istanbul for talks. Traders moved towards stocks as diplomats moved to discussions. The focus was now on the outcome of the meeting and even on Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he urged the two sides to “put an end to this tragedy.” As reported by BBC: “The CAC40 in Paris and the Dax in Frankfurt were both up more than 3% at 12:44 GMT, and London’s FTSE100 index is up by 1.34%.”
Red Cross
On 29 March, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) condemned the violence inflicted on civilians due to the ongoing war. The Red Cross called for an end to the “abhorrent and unacceptable” levels of violence. On the other hand, ICRC was being accused of maintaining communications with both sides and facilitating evacuations. ICRC Spokesperson Ewan Watson said: “We are seeing deliberate, targeted attacks using false narratives, and disseminating this information to discredit the ICRC.’
References:
“Ukraine president tells Danish parliament Russia sanctions must be tightened,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
“Center of Mariupol is under full control of DPR forces, DPR’s Information Ministry says,” TASS, 29 March 2022
“LPR reveals how many Donbass towns have been liberated since February 24,” TASS, 29 March 2022
“Number of arrivals in Russia from Ukraine and Donbass rises to almost 490,000,” TASS, 29 March 2022
“Disinformation endangering Red Cross work in Ukraine: ICRC,” France24, 29 March 2022
“Asian, European markets rise as ceasefire talks begin,” The Manila Times, 29 March 2022
“UN atomic watchdog chief in Ukraine to discuss nuclear safety amid Russia’s invasion,” The Times of Israel, 29 March 2022
“Emirates will continue flying to Russia until told not to by owners, president says,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
Nandita Bose and Alexandra Alper, “Biden discusses Ukraine, Indo-Pacific with Singapore PM,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
Kantaro Komiya, “Japan to ban Russia-bound exports of luxury cars, goods from 5 April,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
“Will the Ukraine war ground the space industry?,” Al Jazeera, 29 March 2022
“U.S., German officials to meet this week on LNG, hydrogen supplies,” Eureporter, 29 March 2022
“Russian supply chains next in line for sanctions, deputy U.S. treasury secretary says,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
“EU sets up distribution centres on Ukraine border for refugees needing care,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
“As Ukraine-Russia peace talks kick off in Istanbul, Erdogan urges ‘end to tragedy’,” The Times of Israel, 29 March 2022
“US proposes $6.9 bn in FY 2023 budget for countering Ukraine war,” Business standard, 29 March 2022
“Finland must guard against Russia influence in NATO debate, security service says,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
“Britain updates guidance on use of Russian computer tech,” Reuters, 29 March 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
FRANCE
Macron faces tough competition as Le Pen gains support
On 29 March, French President Emmanuel Macron said, he plans to relaunch his election campaign this week with walkabouts outside Paris and a large rally in the city. The diplomatic strains from the war in Ukraine hampered his election campaign and have narrowed the poll gap between him and his rival Marine Le Pen. After a successful campaign focused on France's high cost of living, Le Pen is gaining support. The majority of voters trusted Macron to take a lead on the war in Ukraine which initially did seem to secure his position. However, his presidential rivals on the right and left accuse him of avoiding domestic political debate. (Angeline Chrisafis, “Macron kickstarts re-election campaign as Le Pen gains ground,” The Guardian, 29 March 2022)
THE UK
Heatwave parameters increased in certain counties
On 29 March, the Meteorological Office raised the temperature at which a heatwave is to be declared in certain parts of the UK. A heatwave is defined when daily maximum temperatures in a certain location meet or surpass a specified level for three days in a row. In Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, and Cambridgeshire, the temperature is 28 degrees Celsius. In Lincolnshire, it is 27 degrees Celsius and in the East Riding of Yorkshire, it will be 26 degrees Celsius. The prior limits were based on data from 1981 to 2010, whereas the new ones are based on data from 1991 to 2020. The rest of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland still fall under a 25 degrees Celsius threshold. Head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre, Dr Mark McCarthy has raised concerns over frequent heatwaves stating: "As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, heatwaves of similar intensity are projected to become even more frequent, perhaps occurring as regularly as every other year." (Adam Durbin, “Climate change: Heatwave temperature threshold raised in England by Met Office,” BBC, 29 March 2022)
Rishi Sunak defends his spring statements
On 28 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak received backlash from the Treasury Committee for his spring statements announced on 23 March. The Committee Chairman Stride accused Sunak of not increasing the benefits for individuals. Sunak defended his decision by stating that operational issues were present and government borrowings had to be reduced. Labour Member of Parliament Angela Eagle questioned Sunak on benefits payments and the increasing cost of living. She stated that Sunak chose to drive 1.3 million people including half a million children into poverty. (“Universal Credit: Chancellor defends decision not to boost benefits,” BBC, 29 March 2022)
REGIONAL
The EU files a dispute over the UK’s green subsidy
On 28 March, the EU filed its first-ever World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the UK over its green subsidy plan. The European Commission, which supervises trade policy for the EU's 27 members, stated that the UK government adopted parameters favouring its own when giving offshore wind power projects subsidies. The commission alleged that this violates the WTO's key principle that imports must be allowed to compete on an equal basis with domestic products. This also affects the EU’s green energy producers, including numerous SMEs. It further stated that the procedure would raise manufacturing costs and potentially delay the deployment of green energy. (“EU launches first WTO challenge against Britain over green subsidies,” Reuters, 28 March 2022)