NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Mikhail Klimentyev/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS
War in Ukraine: Day 36
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in the Australian parliament and evacuation in Mariupol
Zelensky’s address
On 31 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his virtual address in the Australian parliament highlighted three key factors. One, is the threat to global security, where Russia is being allowed to invade a neighbouring country openly, without any power to stop it. Second, the risk of nuclear weapons, he urged imposing sanctions for “nuclear blackmail.” Third, Russia is a motivator for other aggressive nations. He said: “But the most terrible thing, if we don’t stop Russia now if we don’t hold Russia accountable, then some of the countries of the world that we're looking forward to a similar war against their neighbours will decide that such things are possible for them as well. The fate of global security is decided now.” Ahead of the Australian parliament, Zelensky addressed the Dutch Parliament, where he urged weapons support, reconstruction aid and stopping the existing businesses with Russia.
Zelensky warned of Russia's attempts of amassing bigger troops in the Donbas region for a bigger attack. The Russian military also reported that: “A planned regrouping of troops is taking place in these areas, its goal is to intensify actions in priority areas and, above all, complete the operation to completely liberate Donbas.” In his everyday video address, remarked the disbelief in Russia’s word to de-escalate. Pointing to the negotiation talks he said, there was no progress and does not believe in “verbal constructions.”
Ukraine Military advance
On 31 March, Ukraine’s ground forces Deputy Chief of staff observed that the offensive capacity of Russia had gone down and the tactics appeared to be changing from direct attacks to long-range attacks. He said: “The enemy has almost exhausted its offensive potential, but the forces that remain around Kyiv are not small.” Apart from this the Ukrainian Atomic Energy Ministry reported the exit of Russian troops from the Chernobyl power plant.
Other developments
On 31 March, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported that the Ukrainian government had sent 45 buses to rescue out the citizens from Mariupol. The move comes after the Russian Defense Ministry agreed to open the humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
President Putin’s new decree
On 31 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a decree mandating the payment for Russian gas to be in Roubles from 01 April. He said that the sanctioning of the West began a year back and it shall be hard to impose new sanctions. On Europe’s shift to buying liquid natural gas from the US, he pointed out that it will lead to loss of jobs in Europe. Apart from this after the telephonic call with French President Emmanuel Macron, he demanded Ukraine to surrender Mariupol. The Defense Ministry called for a one-day ceasefire to allow the evacuation of people from Mariupol.
Russian Foreign Ministry
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced a new set of sanctions on the EU leaders, banning their entry into Russia, it also blacklisted some EU member states. According to the Ministry: “The restrictions apply to the top leadership of the European Union; including a number of European commissioners and heads of EU military structures, as well as the vast majority of members of the European Parliament who promote anti-Russian policies.”
Other developments
On 31 March, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin permitted “parallel imports,” as part of the support for small and medium businesses. Till now the goods in Russia were sold without trademark authorisation. This was done to ease the access of goods for people despite the sanctions put by other foreign countries. Currently, the annual inflation stands at 15.66 per cent and other essential commodities are expected to rise more.
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 31 March, US President Joe Biden speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin was self-isolating in Russia. He said: “He seems to be self-isolated and there’s some indication that he has fired or put under house arrest some of his advisers….But I don’t want to put too much stock in that at this time.”
On the same day, the US said it imposed fresh sanctions on Russia that target its technology sector. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: “We will continue to target Putin’s war machine with sanctions from every angle until this senseless war of choice is over.” The sanctions were imposed to target Russia in different sectors and deter “malicious cyber actors.”
Italy
On 31 March, Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that he did not expect Russia to cut off its gas supplies. Draghi made these comments at a conference and mentioned that in his telephonic call with Putin, the latter assured him that the gas contracts would continue and that European firms can continue to pay in euros and dollars. However, he said: “What I understood, but I may be wrong, is that the conversion of the payment ... is an internal matter of the Russian Federation.”
France and Germany declined to pay for gas in roubles
On 31 March, France and Germany rejected the demand by Russia to pay for all gas purchases being paid in roubles. Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck said: “It is important for us not to give a signal that we will be blackmailed by Putin.” On the other hand, France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire mentioned that both nations were preparing for the possibility of Russia halting deliveries. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price also mentioned how this was a tactic by Putin due to Moscow’s economic and financial situation, which has escalated due to the sanctions.
The UK
On 31 March, the UK government said it had expanded its sanctions to cover 14 more people and organisations, including the group that controlled RT, a television channel. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that these sanctions were aimed at countering the fake news that Russian media spread regarding the invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions also targeted Col Gen Mikhail Mizintsev, the officer in charge of Russia’s siege of Mariupol.
Norway
On 31 March, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said that Russian President Vladimir Putin issued him that Russia would create a humanitarian corridor for the besieged civilians in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Stoere’s comments were an outcome of an hour-long call with Putin, where he also said he had urged him to put an end to the war in Ukraine. He further said: “We have minimal expectations of what could be achieved, but nothing should be left untried in the situation we are now in.”
NATO
On 31 March, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at Brussels said that Russian forces in Ukraine were not withdrawing but regrouping. He said: “According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region.”Stoltenberg also said that the military alliance would need more convincing as while the talks were going on in Istanbul, Moscow continued its attacks in Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
The UN
On 31 March, the UN said it delivered aid to northern Ukraine, but in the south, they could not access the regions due to the cities being encircled. The UN humanitarian coordinator Osnat Lubrani said, "…basic household items, including blankets and kettles from the UN refugee agency, will support 1,500 people. Sanitation kits will also help 6,000 people with hygiene and drinking water." She added that accessing Mariupol, Kherson and other southern Ukrainian cities was not possible due to safety concerns.
Oil Prices
On 31 March, US President Joe Biden announced the largest ever release of oil reserves to decrease gasoline prices. He said: "This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as a bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up." Biden further said the US would release one million barrels of oil for the next six months to control oil prices.
Red Cross
On 31 March, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it was preparing to evacuate citizens from Mariupol. A staff member with the ICRC team, Lucile Marbeau, said: "We're here because really, we hope to be able to facilitate safe passage for civilians desperately wanting to flee Mariupol." The ICRC said it also had a team assembled with medicines, food, water, hygiene items, and other essentials near the city of Zaporizhzhia. Russia had committed to a ceasefire on the route between Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia to evacuate citizens.
UNHRC
On 31 March, UNHCR said about 4,059,105 had fled the country since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. UNHCR said: "We are confronted with the realities of a massive humanitarian crisis that is growing by the second." Apart from them, about 13 million people have been internally displaced or were stranded in affected areas.
India
On 31 March, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited India to strengthen their ties and to discuss aspects of the situation in Ukraine. Truss' visit comes as India had not condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Lavrov was in Delhi to discuss India bypassing sanctions and increasing its Russian oil and gas purchase.
References:
“BBC Live,” BBC, 31 March 2022
“Ukraine War: Putin demands Mariupol surrender to end shelling,” BBC, 31 March 2022
“White House says the US has evidence that the war against Ukraine has been ‘a strategic disaster’ – as it happened,” The Guardian, 24 March 2022
“Russians Start to Withdraw from Chernobyl: U.S.,” The Moscow Times, 24 March 2022
“Russia will view refusal of paying for gas in rubles as breach of contract — Putin,” TASS, 23 March 2022
“France, Germany reject Putin demands for gas payments in roubles as ‘blackmail’,” France24, 31 March 2022
“Russian troops not withdrawing but regrouping in Ukraine, NATO says,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Terje Solsvik and Gwladys Fouche, “Russia's Putin assured his commitment to humanitarian access in Ukraine, Norway PM says,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Crispian Balmer, “Italy's Draghi does not expect halt to Russian gas flows,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
Peter Walker, “UK sanctions target Russian general and media heavyweights,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022
“UN delivers aid to northern Ukraine, says south inaccessible,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022
Daphne Psaledakis, “U.S. targets Russia's technology sector in fresh sanctions,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
“Biden says Putin seems to be self-isolating,” Reuters, 31 March 2022
“Refugees fleeing Ukraine (since 24 February 2022),” Operational Data portal Ukraine Refugee situation, 31 March 2022
“Liz Truss visits India on same day as Sergei Lavrov,” BBC, 31 March 2022
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events, day 36,” Al Jazeera, 31 March 2022
“Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 36 of the Russian invasion,” The Guardian, 31 March 2022
“Ukraine: NATO warns Russia 'repositioning,' not withdrawing — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 31 March 2022
“Ukraine war: Putin being misled by fearful advisers, US says,” BBC, 31 March 2022
Thomas Wintle, “Ukraine conflict day 36: Putin threatens to shut off Europe's gas, Moscow bars EU leaders,” CGTN, 31 March 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
FRANCE
France exceeds the deadline to abide by the council of state's ruling
On 31 March, France missed the deadline issued by the Council of State to reorient itself with the Paris Climate Agreement objectives. In July 2021, the Council of State criticized the government's failure to comply with the 2015 agreement to combat climate change. Following an assessment, it was concluded that the government was not doing enough to meet the agreement's goal of cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990. The council granted nine months to take necessary measures on it. (“France fails to meet court deadline to get Paris climate deal objectives back on track,” Euronews, 31 March 2022)
SPAIN
Illegal immigrants drowned near Canary Island
On 31 March, 25 migrants are believed to have drowned at sea near Spain's Canary Islands during an attempted sea crossing. Survivors testify that many were thrown overboard after running out of supplies. On 19 March, over 75 individuals, including several children, emigrated from Mauritania, but only 48 people arrived on the Spanish island of El Hierro. More than 40,000 migrants, primarily from Morocco, immigrated to Spain by the sea in 2021. However, at least 1,255 individuals died attempting to cross the border. (“Twenty-five migrants feared dead off Spain's Canary Islands,” Euronews, 31 March 2022)
THE UK
Brexit, rising demand and the Ukraine war drive the UK’s cost of living
On 30 March, The Guardian examined the cost of living for low and average income groups in the UK. The extra income available to the UK's lower-income households will decrease by a fifth this year, leaving EUR 850 less to spend on non-essentials. For the average income group, it is expected to reduce by over 6.5 per cent. The rise in prices is being driven by a mix of Brexit, recovery in demand as businesses reopen following pandemic lockdowns and the war in Ukraine. Chief executive of Retail Economics, Richard Lim said: “Rising inflation will see spending power under huge pressure, particularly for the least affluent households who spend a disproportionate amount of their income on non-discretionary items such as food, energy, and fuel.” (Sarah Butler, “UK’s low-income families to lose a fifth of their spare cash in 2022,” The Guardian, 30 March 2022)
REGIONAL
Crypto-assets transfers to be closely tracked by the EU
On 31 March, the EU legislators endorsed stronger traceability requirements for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency transfers. The proposed legislation would oblige cryptocurrency firms to gather and share data on transactions. The proposal would also target individuals holding crypto assets rather than exchanges, by requiring them to retain the records and inform the authorities whenever a transaction worth more than EUR 1,000 occurs. The parliamentary committees also want the European Banking Authority (EBA) to issue a public record of crypto-asset service providers who may be vulnerable to money laundering and other criminal activity, as well as a list of non-compliant enterprises. (Natalie Huet, “EU lawmakers back tough traceability rules on crypto transfers in fight against money laundering,” Euronews, 31 March 2022)
Disappointments arise over the UN Biodiversity talks
On 29 March, Deutsche Welle reported on the disappointments over the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The objective of CBD is to compose and adopt a global agreement to end environmental degradation and promote restoration. The treaty is envisaged to achieve for government-led biodiversity action what the Paris Agreement did for climate action. The document must be completed in time for the COP15 conference in Kunming, China. Greenpeace International, as an observer, appealed for the same political leadership that was exhibited in the Paris Climate Agreement to provoke urgency in the discussions. Director-General of World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Marco Lambertini stated: “As we move forward, political leadership is going to be critical to resolve some of the stickiest points and to drive consensus. And so we are calling upon heads of states, prime ministers and ministers of the environment to drive that leadership.” (“Calls for leadership ahead of Kunming biodiversity deal,” Deutsche Welle, 29 March 2022)