NIAS Area Studies: Pakistan-

02 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #165

War in Ukraine: Day 37

A possible resurgence of Yellow Vest movement; Activists halt the UKâ€™s refineries; The EU-China summit held virtually

Photo : EU Neighbours east

War in Ukraine: Day 37
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Two Ukrainian generals dismissed; Russia violates Mariupol’s humanitarian corridor; Ukrainian helicopters strike Belgorod?
Ukraine in talks to use Romanian port
On 01 April, Ukraine approached Romania to permit it to export farm goods from the Black Sea port of Constanta. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said: “We and our partners are looking for alternative logistical routes to export our goods via European ports, including Constanta.” Russia has blockaded all of Kyiv’s ports since the war began, and Ukraine accounts for 12 per cent of the world’s global wheat exports, 15 per cent of maize, and about 50 per cent of the world’s sunflower oil.

Zelenskyy dismisses two Ukrainian generals
On 01 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the dismissal of two security officials and called them traitors. He said: “Regarding antiheroes. Now, I do not have time to deal with all the traitors. But gradually, they will all be punished.” Naumov Andriy Olehovych and Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych were dismissed by Zelenskyy. However, the reasons behind the dismissal were not mentioned. He further added that those who violate the military allegiance to the people of Ukraine would “inevitably be deprived of senior military ranks.”

Zelenskyy warns of a powerful Russian strike
On 01 April, Zelenskyy warned of a possible “powerful strike” in the Donbas region as Russia claimed it would withdraw from Kyiv. He urged the people to be prepared for a possible devastating assault in the eastern region. The Pentagon also said that Moscow might be repositioning to send forces to the Donbas region.

Russia breaking promises on Mariupol humanitarian corridor
On 01 April, the governor of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region Pavlo Kyrylenko said Russia was breaking its promises of allowing humanitarian aid to reach the encircled city of Mariupol. He added: “Humanitarian deliveries, despite all the agreements and promises of the Russian side, are not being carried out…the humanitarian corridor ... is essentially not operational.” This comes as Ukraine had sent 45 buses to evacuate its civilians from the besiged port city.

Ukrainian helicopters strike Belgorod?
On 01 April, Russia claimed that two Ukrainian military helicopters bombed a fuel depot in the eastern city of Belgorod. The attack would be the first by Ukraine’s forces on Russian soil since the invasion. However, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “I can neither confirm nor reject the claim that Ukraine was involved in this simply because I do not possess all the military information.” On the same day, Ukraine said it exchanged 86 members of its forces with Russia.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Russia’s exit from the Council of Europe
On 01 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Human Rights Envoy Grigory Lukyantsev said Moscow’s decision to exit the Council was not an outcome of the situation in Ukraine. He added: “It’s no secret that this decision had been in the making for a long time….The situation in the organization was nearing a crisis long before the start of the special operation.” Lukyantsev further accused the Council of practicing double standards and claimed that it had an absence of positive changes. He even criticized the agenda of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe as it was inclined to issues against Russia and its allies. A few examples cited by TASS: “poisoning of [blogger Alexey] Navalny,’ ‘arrest and detention of Navalny,’ ‘violation of the rights of Crimean Tatars in Crimea,’ ‘violation of the rights of LGBT community,’ ‘violations human rights in Belarus.”

Peskov on Gazprom
On 01 April, Kremlin’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that nationalizing the subsidiaries of Gazprom and Rosneft in Germany was completely unacceptable. His comments came as speculations arose that Germany’s Economy Ministry was considering nationalizing the subsidiaries of Gazprom and Rosneft. Peskov said: “Of course, such a plan would seriously violate international law and just about all the rules and laws that you can think of. Therefore, we will monitor it closely. Of course, as far as we are concerned, even the very thought of such an option is unacceptable.”

Gas for dollars and euros?
On 01 April, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko spoke about the benefits of exporting Russian gas for dollars and euros. She claimed that both the currencies had lost their credibility. She also talked about the sanctions imposed and said: “Amid the strongest pressures and illegitimate sanctions we still prefer to act as a responsible member of the international economic community. We have been doing nothing that might worsen conditions for our partners who are the recipients of our hydrocarbons.” Matviyenko further argued how Russia was paid for gas in dollars, euros, gold, and even in foreign exchange reserves in the past.

Foreign Ministry on OSCE SMM
On 01 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine could not perform its functions due to political and legal circumstances. She argued that it could not carry out its duties following the previous mandate as it covered the now independent DPR and LPR territory. She added: “Therefore, Russia has not supported its extension for the next year. It means that its continued activities have no consensus support of the participating states, and therefore, cannot be conducted de jure.” Zakharova called on the OSCE SMM to commence measures to curtail its activities as its functions were de facto terminated on 07 March when its international staff was withdrawn from the regions.

Ukraine’s attack on Belgorod
On 01 April, Peskov condemned Ukraine’s attack on a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod. He said: "Clearly, it’s not what could create conditions for further talks.” The Kremlin claimed the Ukrainian forces carried out two airstrikes on the petroleum depot, which caused a fire, but the attack had no casualties.

Lavrov visits India
On 01 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited New Delhi and hailed India for not taking a “one-sided view” on the war. He also tried to gain the country's support to discuss the circumvention of sanctions. He said: “It is absolutely clear that more and more transactions would be done through this system using national currencies, bypassing dollar, euro and other currencies.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
NATO
On the position of the Russian forces, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg observed that the Russian troops were found to be regrouping in the east of the country to multiply their attacks. Russia had brought in 1200 to 2000 troops inside from Georgia. He added: “We see continued shelling of cities and we see that Russia is re-positioning some of the troops, moving some of them around, most likely to reinforce their efforts in the Donbas region.” Apart from the above, Russia also maintains control over Kyiv and other cities and NATO expects more offensive taking place in the coming days. Agreeing on the same, UK Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace warned that Russia was not withdrawing its forces, but rather repositioning.

Northern Ireland
On 01 April, Northern Ireland opened “four advice centres,” in Belfast, Ballymena, Craigavon and Newry to help out the refugees fleeing from Ukraine. Till now the government has not given an exact count of refugees who has entered, but it estimates it to be many hundreds. As per Stormont officials, 40 visas have been given so far for those who have chosen to stay in Northern Ireland.

The US
On 01 April, the US Defence department approved USD 300 million as “security assistance” for Ukraine to boost its defence capacity. The fund will be an addition to the existing sanction of USD 1.6 billion. In a statement, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said: “This decision underscores the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in support of its heroic efforts to repel Russia’s war of choice.”

The UK
On 01 April, UK Finance Ministry announced the issue of a license for receipt and transfer of payments for non-rouble debt given by Russia’s central bank. The wealth fund is expected to run from 01 April and 30 June.
On 01 April, the UK Ministry of Defense reported that Ukraine's military had taken back the villages of Sloboda and Lukashivka located in the south of Chernihiv. Both Chernihiv and Kyiv have been attacked by Russia using air and missile strikes. It said: “Ukraine has also continued to make successful but limited counter attacks to the east and north east of Kyiv.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
MNCs
On 01 April, Tate & Lyle Plc UK’s sweetener company announced the increase in prices of its products to tackle the market pressure rising from the Ukraine war. Being one of the largest producers of sweeteners, it is said that due to rise in the cost price of raw materials, energy, and logistics has led the firm to hike the selling price.

The London Metal Exchange declared the supply suspension of Russian metals into the UK. Along with the metals, lead and aluminium will be also be restricted from the supply. Although Russia is the largest nickel producer, it will continue to be supplied to the UK.

Heineken, a Dutch brewing company announced the end of its business in Russia. It had previously stopped its sale, production and new investments. It also said that it will not make a profit through a transfer of ownership and it expects the amount to be around EUR 400 million.

China
On the question of peace talks, it was observed that China's President Xi Jinping comments in the video conference of the EU summit, asking the EU to consider China as an independent state. Post the EU-China summit in Brussels, both parties agreed on the Ukraine war was a threat to the world. The head of the European Council, Charles Michel said: “We will also remain vigilant on any attempts to aid Russia financially or militarily. However, positive steps by China to help end the war would be welcomed by all Europeans and by the global community.’

India
India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman confirmed that India will continue to purchase crude oil from Russia as per the country’s needs, but at a discount due to hike in oil prices.

Mexico
On 01 April, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has reported a contraction for a continuous 25^th month due to rising inflation, global shortage in supplies, economic instability and most importantly Ukraine war. According to the economics associate director at S&P Global: “PMI data showed the second-sharpest increase in input costs in the 11-year survey history, which companies often linked to raw material scarcity, the pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine.”

Canada
On 01 April, Canada’s intelligence observed the disinformation campaigns launched by Russian backed disinformation campaigns supporting the killings in Ukraine. It claimed that: “Russia had promoted stories that "falsely categorize Russian protesters and citizens opposed to the invasion as supporting neo-Nazis and genocide.” Although the Communications Security Establishment (CSE) agency did not provide any evidence on the stated campaigns, it said: “Later the Communications Security Establishment (CSE) agency did not provide any evidence on the stated campaigns.”

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

FRANCE
Possible resurgence of Yellow Vest movement before elections
On 01 April, France24 reported on the Yellow Vest uprising of 2018 and examined its potential to rise. The Yellow Vests demonstrations staged 60 consecutive weeks of protest against economic hardship, inequality, and a discredited political elite. They patrolled roundabouts throughout the country at all hours and marched to the streets of towns and cities every Saturday. The Yellow Vest uprising was sparked by an unpopular fuel tax that was nominally supposed to fund France’s transition to a green economy. But it became apparent that the proceeds would be directed to compensate for the deficit created by the government’s tax cuts for businesses. A researcher at Sciences-Po in Bordeaux, Magali Della Sudda, who has studied the uprising, stated: “There are signs the movement is picking up again, focusing once again on its original themes of purchasing power and social justice.” (Benjamin Dodman, “Will France's Yellow Vests come back to haunt Macron on election day?,” France24, 02 April 2022)

THE UK
Fines to be collected for Downing parties.
On 01 April, the UK officials started to collect fines after the Downing Street party probe. The fines were imposed on parties conducted during the lockdown restrictions on 18 June 2020 at Downing Street offices and residences. A few of the parties were attended and organized by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The incident had previously jeopardized Johnson's position, with members of his party demanding his resignation and plummeting confidence in his leadership. However, as the public attention was directed toward the war in Ukraine, many opposition leaders suppressed their calls to focus on the developments in eastern Europe. (“UK officials begin to receive 50 pound fines following probe into Downing Street parties - Sky,” Reuters, 01 April 2022)

Activists halt the UK’s refineries
On 01 April, climate activists group Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil blocked ten oil refineries in London, Birmingham, and Southampton in protest of climate change. A spokesperson for the group, Andrew Smith stated: “We will be more disruptive than ever, and we will be impossible to ignore.” To avoid the worst scenarios of global warming destruction projected by scientists, the Extinction Rebellion is calling for an emergency intervention from governments and a massive shift from polluting industries. Another activist group present at the protest, Just Stop Oil, describes itself as a coalition of groups working together to end the exploration, exploitation, and production of fossil fuels. (Andrew Macaskill and Muvija M, “Climate activists plan daily protests after blocking 10 UK oil terminals,” Reuters, 01 April 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The EU-China summit held virtually
On 01 April, the EU and China held a virtual summit concerning the war in Ukraine and China’s ambiguous position over Russia’s actions. While China has expressed concerns over the rising conflict in Ukraine, there are disagreements regarding the critical causes of the conflict. China backs Russia’s anti-NATO narrative, whilst the EU and the West oppose it. The EU diplomats also spoke with the Premier of China’s State Council, Li Keqianng. Li said that Beijing opposes the division of blocs, taking sides and further mentioned that China pushed for peace "its own way." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, warned China not to interfere with the EU’s sanctions and that any support to Russia would damage its reputation. (“EU-China summit focuses on war in Ukraine amid tense relations,” Deutsche Welle, 01 April 2022)

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