NIAS Area Studies: Pakistan-

09 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #171

War in Ukraine: Day 44

Germany vows EUR 100 billion to NATO defence expenditure; Leaders of Spain and Morroco meet to improve ties; London protests against the use of fossil fuels

Photo : Reuters Graphics

War in Ukraine: Day 44
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

WAR ON THE GROUND
Attack on Kramatorsk train station; Situation of Makarov, Mariupol and Bucha
Zelensky’s interview with the CBS News
On 08 April, Zelensky, in his interview with CBS News, mentioned how Ukraine was “defending the right to live.” He further talked about how the right to defend was so costly as Russia was trying to infringe on Ukraine’s fundamental rights and values. His interview also covered the Bucha incident, and he responded by accusing Russia of war crimes.

Kramatorsk: Attack on the train station
On 08 April, Ukraine’s officials mentioned that dozens of people were killed and over 100 were injured due to a rocket attack launched by Russia. The station was being used to disperse evacuees from the Donbas region. According to the governor, around five children were also killed in the attack.

On the same day, Zelensky condemned the attack and said: “This is an evil that has no limits. And if it is not punished, it will never stop.” Ukraine’s national railway head stated that it was a deliberate attack to strike the passenger infrastructure and harm civilians. However, Russia denied it carried out the attack.

Makarov: 132 bodies of civilians found
On 08 April, the mayor of Makarov said bodies of 132 civilians were found in the town located west of Kyiv. He added: “The occupiers destroyed almost all infrastructure, bombed [homes] and apartment buildings, completely destroyed hospitals and kindergartens.”

Odessa: Weekend curfew
On 08 April, the Southern port city of Odessa imposed a weekend-long curfew citing potential missile threats from Russia. The warning came after Russia shelled the train station of Kramatorsk. As a result, Odessa’s regional military administration announced: “A curfew will be introduced in Odessa and the Odessa region from 9 p.m. on 09 April to 6 p.m. 11 April.”

Bucha: Investigation on civilians killed
On 08 April, Ukraine’s forensic investigators exhumed the mass graves in Bucha and warped the bodies of the civilians who were killed by Russian troops. The prosecutor’s office in Bucha stated that out of 20 bodies exhumed, 18 had firearm and shrapnel wounds indicating atrocities by Russian forces. Bucha’s mayor further accused Russian troops of extra-judicial killings while retreating from Kyiv.

Mariupol: 160,000 civilians trapped
On 08 April, the mayor of Mariupol said there were 160,000 civilians trapped in the port city with shortages of food, water and medicine. He further stated that 40,000 residents were forcefully deported to Russia.

Also, on 07 April, Zelensky urged Greece’s parliament to use its influence and organise a rescue operation in Mariupol. However, the appearance of an ultranationalist Azov battalion member who identified as an ethnic Greek member outraged the opposition members of the parliament.

THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
Russia expels Poland’s embassy and consulate staff
On 08 April, Russia expelled 45 of Poland’s embassy and consulate staff in retaliation for Warsaw’s expulsion of 45 Russian diplomats. Poland had stated that Russian diplomats were working as intelligence agents. Similarly, Russia retaliated and declared Poland’s staff “persona non grata”.

Lavrov suggests Belarus be Ukraine’s security guarantor
On 08 April, Russia’s foreign minister recommended that Belarus should provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the future. Lavrov added: “At the request of the Ukrainian side, its neutral, non-bloc, non-nuclear status should be accompanied by security guarantees.”

Russia destroys mercenary training centres near Odessa
On 08 April, Russia claimed to destroy foreign mercenaries’ training centres as part of its military campaign in Ukraine. A defence ministry spokesperson stated that high-precision missiles of the Bastion coastal missile system were destroyed. The centres were located near the Krasnosilka village, northeast of Odessa.

Euro drops to 79 rubles
On 08 April, for the first time, the Euro declined to 79 rubles since June 2020. The dollar, too, lost 1.58 per cent to 74.55 rubles. Kremlin’s spokesperson on the negotiations with Ukraine.
On 08 April, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Russia was hoping to reach its objectives in Ukraine or the situation would end in talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in the next few days. Peskov added: “Substantive work is being carried out both on the military side, in terms of advancing the operation, and on the side of the negotiators who are in the negotiation process with their Ukrainian counterparts.”

Response to the suspension from the UNHRC
On 07 April, the UN General Assembly passed the resolution to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. Russia’s representatives said that the steps were politically motivated and that they threatened to destroy the UN’s entire system. However, Russia is only suspended from the current membership, ending in 2023.

Central Bank slashes its key interest rate
On 08 April, the Russian Central Bank decided to cut its key interest rate from 20 to 17 per cent. This comes after the interest rate had been hiked after Russian troops launched their offensive against Ukraine and a series of sanctions sent the ruble into a free fall. The statement released by the Central Bank stated: “Financial stability risks are still present but have ceased to increase for the time being, including owing to the adopted capital control measures.” However, the banks added that they would take further measures depending on the situation to deter a destabilisation of the economy.

Russia redirects its coal shipments away from the EU
On 08 April, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia is redirecting its coal supplies to other markets after the EU refused the shipments. This came as the EU released new sanctions on Russia that restricted its imports of coal from Russia and supplies of high-tech goods.

THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 08 April, US president Joe Biden released a statement to appreciate the UN's move to vote out Russia from the UNHCR. He said: “This is a meaningful step by the international community further demonstrating how Putin’s war has made Russia an international pariah.” He condemned Russia for torturing, killing people and for violating human rights.

The US Department of Treasury blacklisted two Russian businesses from the US financial system. The companies were Alrose, which accounts for 28 per cent of global diamond mining and United Shipbuilder Corp, which deals in constructing Russia’s warships.

Biden accused Russia of the missile attack on the train station in Kramatorsk; he pointed out that Russia had targeted those civilians who were being evacuated safely. Apart from this, he thanked the government of Slovakia for sending a missile defence system to Ukraine and assured to supply Slovakia with the Patriot missile system.

The EU
On 08 April, the EU imposed an embargo on Russia’s coal imports. The embargo will come into practice from mid of August. While the EU plans for the next set of sanctions, the sanction on coal needs to be agreed upon by all the member states of the EU, this is likely to raise concern for Germany, considering its dependency on Russia.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited the town of Bucha to take a look at the ruins. She said: “It is the unthinkable has happened here, we have seen the cruel face of Putin's army.” In the meeting with President Zelensky, a questionnaire was given which will be a step for Ukraine to get the candidate status in the coming days.

Cryptocurrency
The EU, as part of the fifth package of sanctions on Russia, has levied a ban on coal, accessing EU ports and restrictions on transactions with four additional banks of Russia. It also targets crypto wallets, banks, currencies and trusts. The move comes to close down the loopholed exploited by individuals to access their cryptocurrencies.

Slovakia
Slovakia announced its decision to supply Ukraine with the S-300 surface-to-air missile system to strengthen its air defences. According to Slovakia’s Prime Minister Eduard Heger: “I believe that this defence system will help save as many innocent lives as possible from the aggression of Putin's regime.” In line with Biden’s statement, Slovakia has received surface to air missiles from Germany and the Netherlands as part of reinforcing the borders of eastern Europe.

Germany
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pointed out the displacement of people due to war inside Ukraine to be the “terrible consequences.” He said: “Many countries in Europe have hosted refugees, in particular, those along [Ukraine’s] borders – Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania - and we are very grateful to these countries.” Till now Poland holds the largest share of refugees, close to two million and Germany hosts more than 300,000.

Montenegro
Montenegro’s deputy prime minister announced the imposing of unspecified sanctions on Russia. He tweeted: “[The Montenegrin government] has adopted restrictive measures in response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.” Montenegro, although being a NATO member and a candidate for EU membership initially resisted sanctioning Russia concerning the effect on its tourism sector.

The UK
On 08 April, UK’s Defence Ministry reported that Russia had “fully withdrawn” from northern Ukraine and observed that Russia would need a week to redeploy its troops back in the region. The movement of arm troops is predicted to be going towards eastern Ukraine for the fight. It also expects the attacks and shelling to continue in the east and south of Ukraine.

Following the trail of the US, the UK has also sanctioned Putin's daughters along with Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s daughter. Over the last few weeks, the UK has seized GBP 275 billion from Putin’s chest through direct measures and sanctions.

UK prime minister, Boris Johnson announced additional funding of GBP 100 million for supplying Ukraine with “high-grade military equipment.” Along with the equipment, Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, precision munitions, helmets, night-vision goggles, and body armour have also been planned to be sent to Ukraine. On the question of the UK sending tanks to Ukraine, Johnson said: “I’m in principle willing to consider anything by way of defensive weaponry to help the Ukrainians protect themselves and their people.”

THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
International implications of the Ukraine war
UNFAO
On 08 April, UNFAO reported on the highest record of price hike in grains, oil markets and food prices. It said, Ukraine and Russia being the largest exporters of basic agricultural products, the war has caused a ripple effect on exports of wheat, potash, phosphate, and fertilizers.

Australia
On 08 April, Australia transferred the first set of armoured military trucks as a gift to Ukraine. The Bushmaster vehicles will be used to transport soldiers into the war area and not for attacking purposes. Australia will further supply another 17 such trucks, till now it stands committed to providing military and humanitarian aid worth AUD 190 million to Ukraine.

India
India once again abstained from voting in the UN to expel Russia from the Human Rights Council. The statement said: “Since the inception of the Ukrainian conflict, India has stood for peace, dialogue and diplomacy. We believe that no solution can be arrived at by shedding blood and at the cost of innocent lives. If India has chosen any side, it is the side of peace, and it is for an immediate end to violence.” Despite giving a strong statement accusing Russia of the killings in the Bucha, India maintains a neutral stance in the UN.

Africa
The recent data shows that the confidence of South African businesses has slowed down due to the growing uncertainty of the market situation as the war continues. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) released a statement saying that the recovery that was seen in the post-pandemic period has gone extinct due to the unforeseen Russian invasion. It said: “South Africa's business confidence may struggle to maintain its current higher levels.”

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan, Sai Pranav, and Rishma Banerjee

BELGIUM
Potential Salmonella contamination closes Kinder operations in Europe
09 April, all Kinder products from the Arlon factory have been recalled from stores due to the salmonella incident. The rise in cases of the salmonella bacteria can be seen all over western Europe and most of the patients who have been infected fall under the age of ten. The factory was shut down due to the non-disclosure of complete information for the investigation to Belgium’s food safety authority, the AFSCA. The AFSCA said that the factory can become operational only after Ferrero, the owner of Kinder provides guarantees that it followed food and safety regulations and also advised people not to eat Kinder products. Dozens of salmonella cases are suspected to be a result of the consumption of chocolate and the distribution of the products seems to come from the Arlon factory in Belgium. So far, the infections have spread to over nine countries. (“Kinder chocolate factory told to shut over salmonella cases,” BBC, 09 April 2022)

FRANCE
Macron accuses Poland’s prime minister of being ‘a far-right anti-Semite who bans LGBT people’
On 08 April, Macron said that France was willing to be a guarantor of peace when a ceasefire is finally reached between Ukraine and Russia. It is therefore important for him to negotiate with both Putin and Ukraine's president Zelensky. This is in response to Poland's prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki's criticism of France's president Emmanuel Macron, for holding regular conversations with Russia's Vladimir Putin. With Macron’s far-right rival Marine Le Pen closing in on the gap in the upcoming French presidential elections, Macron accused Morawiecki of assisting Le Pen and of being a “far-right anti-Semite who bans LGBT people”. This accusation comes considering how Poland is making it more difficult for Jewish people to recover lost property and making Poland a holocaust denier. A Polish foreign ministry spokesperson, Lukasz Jasina said "As a result of assertions by the French president in an interview with Le Parisien, Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau decided to summon the French ambassador." (“Macron calls Polish PM 'a far-right anti-Semite' in row over Putin talks,” BBC, 08 April 2022; “Poland summons French ambassador after Macron insults prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 08, April 2022)

Elections: Macron to face Le Pen in a close tie
On 08 April, BBC reported about the influence of the war in Ukraine and its impact on the elections in France. The current issues have favoured the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and her progress as an upcoming contestant in the presidential elections. The outcome of the French presidential election appeared to be in Macron's favour for months, as he was constantly topping polls and was anticipated to win a second term. However, just a day before the first-round voting Macron is dealing with a sudden surge in the popularity of Le Pen. Macron held a 14.5 per cent- point lead over Le Pen in March as Russia's war in Ukraine overshadowed the campaign and strengthened Macron's leadership credentials. Nevertheless, it has been reduced by more than half, with Le Pen following Macron by two points. (Lucy Williamson, "French election: Far-right Le Pen closes in on Macron ahead of vote," Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022)

The French lack faith in the Greens party despite concern over climate change
09 April, the polls prior to the presidential election show that French people lack confidence in the Greens Party even though they worry about climate change. The Greens candidate Yannick Jadot seems to have failed to garner popularity among his voters. He is only 5 to 6 per cent ahead in the recent poll and received similar results in the 2002 elections with 5.25 per cent of votes. Jadot seems to have gained the trust of the French people only in terms of addressing the environmental issues and not with regards to issues such as health, and inequality. The people are observed to be in favour of the far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who also proposes environmental action against climate change. He has risen to be the third most popular in the recent polls after president Emmanuel Macron of La République en Marche (LREM) and Marine Le Pen of National Rally (NR). Many experts say that the Greens did not properly capitalise on the void left by the Socialist Party after its collapse in 2017. (Lauren Chadwick, “France election: Voters worry over climate change. So why are the Greens polling badly?,” Euronews, 08 April 2022)

GERMANY
Berlin's energy dependency on Moscow can be terminated by December
08 April, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) estimated that Germany could cut its Russian energy imports by the end of 2022. DIW issued a study proposing a three-pronged approach of supply diversification, storage and pipeline efficiency, and reduced industrial and residential consumption. DIW further suggested that conserving household electricity alone could cut the need for Russian gas by 18-26 per cent, while German industries could switch to other fuels like coal and biomass. Additionally, imports from Norway alone could cover a fifth of Russia's present yearly imports. The study also refuted the idea to construct new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals stating that long construction timeframes and diminishing natural gas demand make the import facilities unfeasible. ("Germany could be off Russian gas by winter says economic think tank," Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022)

Germany progresses toward NATO's defence commitments
On 08 April, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany's commitments to NATO's defence expenditure guidelines. In 2014, NATO members pledged to devote two per cent of their GDP to national security within ten years. Germany was progressively approaching that level but remained one of the large economies, still falling short until 2021. On 27 February, Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to rectify the shortfall, beginning with an additional EUR 100 billion for the armed forces. Another NATO expenditure guideline where Germany has been lagging was that its members had to devote 20 per cent of their yearly military spending to "major new equipment." However, recently, Scholz initiated plans to replace its Tornado fleet with the US-made F35 fighters and import missile systems and drones from Israel. ("William Noah Glucroft, "Germany checks one NATO box, leaves another open," Deutsche Welle, 08 April 2022)

First democratically elected German chancellor staged a Watergate scandal
On 08 April, independent researchers found researchers have found that Germany’s first democratically elected chancellor, Konrad Adenauer, spied on his political rivals through the country’s foreign intelligence service to maintain an upper hand for almost a decade. His collaboration with the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) chief, Reinhard Gehlen, helped him with inside information about the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Siegfried Ortloff, the SPD’s executive secretary at the time, acted as Gehlen’s informant, providing approximately 500 memos between 1953 and 1962, proving a tactical and strategic advantage to Adenauer. Klaus-Dietmar Henke, speaking on behalf of the research group looking into the matter said that this was eerily similar to Richard Nixon’s Watergate scandal, only, unlike Nixon’s efforts, this infiltration was a successful one. Henke says “...his chummy arrangement with the BND against the SPD confirms in the most drastic way possible that he was also a brutally callous power-seeker.”(Philip Oltermann, “Germany’s Watergate: 1950s chancellor used spy agency to infiltrate rival party,” The Guardian, 08 April 2022)

THE UK
Protests against the use of fossil fuels wreak havoc in London
On 08 April, two activists dangled themselves from the Tower Bridge, using suspension cords, and hung a banner that said "End fossil fuels now." This led the police to close the bridge till midday and arrest four people. The police also had to take action and arrest about 100 people amongst the ones protesting at a site in Kingsbury, an oil depot in Warwickshire in the last week, for criminal damage. The police spokesperson said, "We will always respect people's right to peaceful protest, but we are committed to taking action against those who break the law and significantly impact the lives and livelihoods of others." These protests were staged by the Extinction Rebellion (XR) and the Just Stop Oil Coalition, two activist organisations trying to protest against the use of fossil fuels in London, through peaceful non-violent protests, which have already been conducted in several areas across the country. (“Kingsbury oil depot protests lead to more than 100 arrests,” BBC, 08 April 2022; “Tower Bridge reopens after Extinction Rebellion protest,” BBC, 08 April 2022)

REGIONAL
Spain's prime minister visit Rabat to begin a new phase of relations with Morocco
On 07 April, Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez and Morocco's King Mohammed VI agreed to improve their strained relations on migration and initiate a new phase of cooperation. The Royal Palace of Morocco said the two leaders "reiterated their willingness to usher in a new phase, based on mutual respect, mutual trust, permanent consultation, and frank and faithful cooperation." The two countries' leaders pledged to engage in negotiations on the demarcation of Atlantic sea borders and airspace management. Furthermore, they will be reinforcing cooperation on migration, economy, and energy. Morocco also announced plans to import liquid natural gas by re-establishing an idle pipeline. ("Morocco, Spain mend ties after change in policy on Western Sahara," Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2022)

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