NIAS Area Studies: Pakistan-

13 April 2022, Wednesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #174

War in Ukraine: Day 48

Hungary rejects EUâ€™s rule of law; Cyber-attack on Ukraine's power grids; Macron to compete with Marine Le penÂ

Photo : Mikhail Klimentyev/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS

War in Ukraine: Day 48
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address
On 12 April, Zelenskyy asked the European Union to further tighten the sanctions on Russian banks and oil, ‌‌to choke the funding for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He has also appealed to the African Union for their support in the fight and from Senegalese, Macky Sall confirmed the same.

Deputy defence minister’s address
Deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar again issues a warning against Russia using chemical weapons against her country. She reiterated Zelenskyy’s words and said that the unverified reports of usage of chemical weapons in Mariupol were being checked.

Kyiv
Bucha, near Kyiv was one area where the Russian forces had wreaked havoc, killing, raping and torturing innocent civilians. French forensic experts have come down to Bucha, to examine what happened to the hundreds of bodies that have been discovered here.

Mariupol
On 12th April, Ukraine’s marines stationed in Mariupol expressed their dissatisfaction with Zelenskyy, as they were facing a dwindling of ammunition and stocks. They accused the president of abandoning them amidst a siege as if the fight in Mariupol was over. The brigade posted on Facebook regarding this and said: “For over a month, the marines fought without replenishment of ammunition, without food, without water, drinking from a puddle and dying in batches.”

Ukraine’s human rights representative reported that a cargo ship kept in the Mariupol port was detained by Russian forces. The ship contained 18 Ukrainians and one Egyptian who were taken along by the Russians.

Kharkiv
As the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine grows with each passing day, Kharkiv faced another round of anti-tank mine showers. Residents were forced to stay indoors while the de-mining unit arrived. Ukraine’s officials have said that this is the first time that the Russian forces have used such a tactic so far.

Other developments
On 12 April, Ukraine also captured Moscow’s most high-profile ally Viktor Medvedchuk, of the For Life party, who is also the leader of the Opposition platform. Ukraine’s officials said that the prisoners of war in Ukraine would need to be released if Russia wanted Medvedchuck to be freed. The Kyiv Independent released a photo of a handcuffed Medvedchuk on Twitter.

On the same day, the government also announced that the Russians had tried to hack into the country’s power grid, but Ukraine could manage it ‌well. However, experts are of the opinion that the Russian military group Sandworm is responsible.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Putin’s speech
In his address on Russia’s cosmonautics day, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin praised the troops for bravely and efficiently carrying out the military operations using modern weapons. He said: “This is the way it will be. There is no doubt about it. The objectives are absolutely clear, they are noble.” On the relations between Russia and Belarus, Putin said that both countries will collaborate on space infrastructure projects. In response, Belarus President Lukashenko said: “Know that no matter what the situation is, you can count on us, and the Russians can count on us. We will always be there.” On the constant levying of sanctions on Russia by the West, Putin said that Russia will become stronger with the sanctions. In the speech, he continued to denied on the claims of killings in Bucha and stated them as “fake.”

Warnings and accusations
Upon Finland and Sweden taking the initiative to join NATO, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has warned against the move. The initial demand placed by Russia before the invasion was to prevent NATO from extending its membership, with both the Nordic countries coming forward to submit applications to NATO has furthered tensions. According to Peskov: “the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation.”

Russia’s human rights commissioner declined the claims on refugees from Donbas regions being moved into Russia. The commissioner said that the refugees were not forced but had chosen to move into Russia. According to her: “I am saying with a high sense of responsibility that there have been no cases of forcible resettlement of refugees to Russia. Such allegations are lies. I have met with people at temporary accommodation centres personally. They told me the Ukrainian forces had kept them in cellars and used them as a human shield. All those people wished to be taken to safety in Russia.”

Russia’s representative to OSCE accused the West of triggering Ukraine to take a stanch military stance instead of diplomatic negotiation. He said: “We see how foreign patrons of the current Ukrainian authorities are persistently dissuading them from political and diplomatic ways.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry
On 12 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova questioned the operations of the special monitoring mission (SMM) of OSCE in Donbas. The SMM, which was established earlier in 2014, since the start of the war 500 SMM had left Ukraine. With the exit of the mission’s foreign diplomats, the labour contracts have been prolonged by one more year. The foreign minister of DPR called to end the operations of OSCE SMM.

Other developments
The satellite images on the footage of dead civilian bodies in Bucha was revealed by the New York Times on 19 March. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has contradicted the footage and claimed it was “staged.” On the unrecorded killing, Russia has so far blamed it on Ukraine.

On 12 April, TASS reported on the state of people in the DPR region. As per the report, due to continuous attacks from Ukraine’s military, the people in the region had been sustained without water, food, heating and gas. According to the Donetsk separatists group, immediate measures to repair the damages were being carried out, apart from them that it reported on how the Ukraine military had destroyed homes, social infrastructure and bridges in the area.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 12 April, US president Joe Biden reiterated that he stood by the characterisation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine as “genocide.” He said: “I called it genocide because it has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of being able to be Ukrainian, and the evidence is mounting.” However, he further mentioned that he would let the international courts and lawyers decide whether Russia could be called the same. Biden also mentioned that he would be releasing one million barrels of oil per day from the US strategic reserves to counter Russia’s energy supplies.

On the same day, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said they could not verify the reports of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine. However, claims of poisoning by chemical warfare were made by the leader of the Azov volunteer regime at Mariupol. Blinken mentioned: “We had credible information that Russian forces may use a variety of riot control agents, including tear gas mixed with chemical agents, so that would cause stronger symptoms to weaken and incapacitate entrenched Ukrainian fighters and civilians as part of the aggressive campaign to take Mariupol.” Blinken also expressed about the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons was a significant concern to the US.

The UK
On 12 April, the head of the UK’s army chief General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith predicted a possible tactical stalemate in the Ukraine war. However, he mentioned how Russians could also be following “an operational pause” to regroup and focus on the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. He added: “Whether that proves to be the decisive battle or not, we are currently measuring this campaign in days. We ought to expect to measure it in months, if not – in the scheme of things – in years.” Nevertheless, the chief of the general staff stated that a frozen conflict or a tactical stalemate would not be favourable for the international community and Europe.

Also, on 12 April, the UK’s armed forces minister James Heappey said they were investigating if Russian forces were using chemical weapons in Ukraine. The authorities said they had received intel from Mariupol, but neither British defence intelligence nor Kyiv was able to verify the claims. Heappey exclaimed that if evidence were found of such weapons being used, then “all options are on the table” in terms of a united international response. He further stated that he had confidence in the international courts. He added: “Everything that is happening in Ukraine is being catalogued and he will be held to account.”

France
On 12 April, the presidential candidate Marine Le Pen stated that she broadly supported sanctions against Russia but did not support sanctions related to oil and gas. She justified her statement by stating that she did not want the French citizens to suffer the consequences of oil and gas were sanctioned. Earlier, she had backed Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Belarus
On 12 April, Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko denied allegations of Russia’s atrocities in Bucha. He said these were staged and were a type of psychological operation carried out by the English to create a narrative against Russia. He further justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying, if they had not done it, Russian territory would have received a “crushing blow.”

Poland
On 12 April, the government of Poland said it had arrested a Russian citizen on suspicion of spying. The Russian businessman was a long term resident of Poland but was allegedly collecting information about the country’s military capabilities and the locations and strengths of NATO troops stationed in the country.

On the same day, a report by the Polish Border guard stated that 2.681 million people had fled Ukraine and entered Poland since the war began. However, recently the number of refugees coming in has decreased drastically. About 1.2-1.4 refugees only remain, and most of them have already left Poland as only 800,000 had registered for Polish ID numbers.

Germany
On 12 April, Germany’s energy regulator said the country had enough reserves to last till summer if supplies of Russian gas were cut off. Furthermore, the regulator said that Germany had improved its gas supplies since last month.

Netherlands
On 12 April, Dutch authorities stated that they had impounded 20 yachts belonging to Russia and Belarus. Fourteen yachts were still under construction, while six were in storage or undergoing maintenance. Moreover, four had been linked to entities on the EU sanction list. Dutch customs authorities said: “Because these 20 yachts are under increased surveillance, they are not authorised to be delivered, transferred or exported.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
Lebanon
On 12 April, Lebanon’s government said it had agreed to distribute USD 15 million to resolve the acute shortage of bread in the country. This comes as the country’s Muslims held fasts on account of the holy month. The government said it had dispersed the credit to importers to issue subsidised bread. The government further stated that they plan to open another USD 21 million credit after two or three weeks if the issues persist. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated Lebanon’s wheat supplies.

World Food Programme
On 12 April, the WFP pleaded with the world to not ignore the food crisis globally. They said: “Don’t make us take food from children that are hungry to give to children that are starving.” The WFP stated that the war in Ukraine had caused budget cuts in some of their traditional donor countries. This fund cutting had affected the WFP’s food programmes in Yemen, Chad and Niger.

On the other hand, many countries that do not depend on aid face a shortage of food grains as they depend on Russia and Ukraine for their needs. For example, Somalia gets about 60 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, while Eritrea imports nearly 97 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine. As a result, these import-dependent countries would have to now depend on other markets for their food stocks, which would likely come at a higher cost.

World Bank
On 12 April, the World Bank announced that it would send USD 1.5 billion packages to Ukraine. They also assured that it would release aid to help countries affected by the war to deal with the surging food and energy prices. The Bank also stated that it would give Moldova a USD 100 million International Development Association payment. This comes as the World Bank released a report stating that Ukraine’s economic output would be slashed by 45 per cent due to the war.

Nokia
On 12 April, Nokia announced that it would be withdrawing from the markets in Russia. This comes as the sanctions imposed by the West were causing disruptions to its businesses. CEO Pekka Lundmark said: “We just simply do not see any possibilities to continue in the country under the current circumstances.” At the same time, Russia has also been lately pushing companies to start building networks using Russian equipment and had asked Nokia to set up factories in the country.

International religious leaders
On 12 April, a delegation of international faith leaders visited Ukraine to show solidarity with the people affected by the invasion. As reported by BBC: “The delegation will include monks, rabbis, Muslim clerics, Buddhist and Hindu religious leaders and the former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan William.”

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Macron will face a competitive second round
On 12 April, after the first round of France's presidential elections, the incumbent president and candidate Emmanuel Macron have been aggressively campaigning around France, especially in rural areas. Since there are only two weeks left until the second round of the elections, Macron is trying to win as many voters as possible. This comes as the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is only a few points behind Macron. Macron was even seen talking with health workers and other social workers about some of the issues that they were facing. He further assured on increasing the retirement age for workers. The third-placed far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon advised his voters not to vote for Le Pen. Macron and Le Pen are trying to bring in Mélenchon's voters. (“Macron debates angry voters as campaign intensifies ahead of runoff,” Euronews, 13 April 2022)

HUNGARY
EU’s rule of law rejected by the majority in Hungary
On 12 April, following the latest election in Hungary, the EU is insistent on upholding the bloc's Rule of Law in the country. Prime minister Viktor Orban won his re-election with an overwhelming victory. The EU, which is on bad terms with Orban, is determined to uphold its rule of law in Hungary. The Hungarian justice minister Judit Varga said that the EU should not concentrate on matters such as these when there is a war going on. She also said that everyone should work together and face the crisis. But the EU is adamant about practising the rule of law even if the majority of the country had elected a government that disregards it. Orban hasn’t let refugees from Ukraine into his country. Hungary’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has received a lot of criticism, especially from its ally Polland. (“EU determined to uphold rule of law following Orban's re-election in Hungary,” Euronews, 13 April 2022)

THE UK
Prime minister Boris declined to step down over Downing party accusations
On 13 April, prime minister Boris Johnson, his wife Carrie, and chancellor Rishi Sunak were fined for violating the lockdown restrictions of 2021. Opposition parties accused Johnson and Sunak of lying to the public about their presence at the Downing Street event. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and the first ministers of Scotland and Wales called for their resignations. Johnson apologized and said he felt “an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people.” Sunak also responded by stating: “I understand that for figures in public office, the rules must be applied stringently in order to maintain public confidence.” However, they declined to step down from their posts. (Jennifer Scott, “Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak reject calls to resign over lockdown fines,” BBC, 13 April 2022)

UKRAINE
Major cyber-attack on power grids averted
On 12 April, deputy chairman of the state service of special communications, Viktor Zoha, revealed that they narrowly escaped a major cyber attack on the country’s power grids by the Russians. Hackers attempted to shut down substations at one of the country’s primary energy firms, which may have resulted in blackouts for two million people. Zoha stated that the attack was planned for 08 April. Researchers suspect Sandworm, a Russian military group, of the attack. Sandworm is also accused of outages in several Ukrainian towns and cities in 2021. Although Russia denies responsibility for the cyber-attacks, the US and EU have officially accused Sandworm of both events, and cyber authorities have named several suspects. (Joe Tidy, “Ukrainian power grid ‘lucky’ to withstand Russian cyber-attack,” BBC, 13 April 2022)

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