NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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War in Ukraine: Day 55
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
War on the ground
Zelenskyy’s address
On 19 April, President Zelenskyy talked about the escalating Russian offensive in the eastern parts of the country, especially in the Kharkiv, Donbas and Dnipropetrovsk regions. He referred to how destructive the Russian forces were, and said: “They still consider ordinary housing infrastructure normal targets for them. In this war, the Russian army will forever inscribe itself in world history as perhaps the most barbaric and inhuman army in the world.”
Donbas
On 19 April, the Russian attack on the Donbas line of control continued its escalation, even though the Ukrainian forces managed to repel several advances. UK Defence said that the Russian offensive has been somewhat impacted by the environmental, logistical and technical challenges that the region offers along with the determination of the highly motivated Ukrainian Army.
Kreminna
On 19 April, Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of the Luhansk region said in a briefing that the Kreminna in the eastern part of Ukraine has been occupied by the Russian forces. Kreminna which has a population of 18,000 people becomes the first city to fall to the Russians since their renewed offensive in the east of Ukraine.
Other developments
On 19 April, the deputy prime minister of Iryna Vereshchuk reported that Russia has over 60 soldiers and 16 civilians to Ukraine. She said: "This was the fifth exchange of prisoners of war. A total of 76 people.” This swap also included 10 Ukrainian officers. Vereshchuk also informed that no humanitarian corridors had been established for the third consecutive day due to rising Russian offensive making it difficult to conduct negotiations.
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Putin’s decree
On 18 April, Russia President Vladimir Putin signed a decree titling the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade “Guards” for their heroism and courage in a war in Bucha. Along with this he also announced an additional pay-out of USD 62000 for the soldiers who are serving in the Ukraine war within the eastern Ukraine borders. According to TASS: “in order to provide additional measures of social support to service personnel of the border agencies of the Federal Security Service and members of their families.”
Russia Foreign Ministry
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that the “next phase” of Russia’s operations had begun. He also affirmed that Russia will use only “conventional weapons,” on the question of the possibility of using nuclear weapons. He said: “The real reason is the complacency of most countries in the world after the end of World War II when our Western colleagues led by the United States declared themselves the winners, and in violation of their promises to the Soviet and Russian leadership, [they] started moving NATO eastward.”
On 18 April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry expelled all employees in Dutch, Austrian and Belgian embassies as a counter to the European country's move in expelling Russia’s diplomats. This includes 15 Dutch diplomats, four Austrian diplomats and several Belgian employees.
Other developments
On 18 April, Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia was preparing for a lawsuit against the frozen assets, gold and foreign currency reserves in the West. She commented: “unprecedented on a global scale.” No further details were given on how Russia would approach the lawsuit, but Russia’s Finance Ministry estimated USD 300 billion to be frozen in Russia’s gold and currency reserves.
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 19 April, the US said it was planning to seize a superyacht Amadea which was docked in the Pacific Island nation of Fiji. The yacht is suspected of belonging to Suleiman Kerimov, a Russian oligarch sanctioned by the US and EU. Fiji’s director of public prosecutions, Christopher Pryde, filed an application to prevent the yacht from leaving Fiji.
On the same day, US president Joe Biden at an event mentioned that he was unsure if he would visit Kyiv. His comments come as Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy urged him to visit the country depending on the safety situation.
Also, on 19 April, reports stated that Biden would be announcing another USD 800 million military aid package for Ukraine. Last week, he announced a similarly sized package and sent Ukraine artillery systems, artillery rounds, armoured personnel carriers and unmanned coastal defence boats. The new package would bring the US military aid to a total of USD three billion.
The UK
On 19 April, the UK said it had only delivered GBP 60 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine until 01 April. Commons international development committee chairwoman said she was disappointed at the speed the aid was being delivered as only GBP 60 million was dispersed out of the GBP 220 million. She said that it was shocking and disappointing as the people needed the help immediately. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss mentioned that the delivery would be expedited.
On the same day, the defence ministry stated that they would be sending armoured missile launchers to Ukraine. This would help Ukraine to resist the Russian forces and take control of the eastern region. Truss also mentioned that the UK would be stepping up their supply of arms.
Boris Johnson called on the world leaders and reiterated a critical need for military support to Ukraine. Johnson said: “The leaders agreed to work together to find a long-term security solution so that Ukraine could never be attacked in this way again. They discussed the need to increase the pressure on Russia with more sanctions against Putin’s war machine, as well as further diplomatic isolation.”
On 19 April, UK’s top negotiator, Mykhailo Podolyak, who is also a political advisor to Zelenskyy said that Kyiv and Moscow had not had face-to-face talks since March 29. He also mentioned that given the situation in Mariupol and failing to arrange for humanitarian corridors, the situation regarding peace talks has gotten more complicated.
France
On 19 April, France’s president Emmanuel Macron stated that his dialogue with Putin had stalled since the mass killings were discovered in Ukraine. He added: “Since the massacres we have discovered in Bucha and in other towns, the war has taken a different turn, so I did not speak to him again directly since, but I don’t rule out doing so in the future.”
Moldova
On 19 April, Moldova’s president Maia Sandu urged the people and opposition politicians to refrain from using any Russian symbols during the celebrations that marked their victory in the second world war. Her calls came as the country protested against Russian troops killing Ukrainian civilians. Sandu added: “It is impossible to combine in the same symbol the memory of lives given for peace and the current inhumane war.”
Spain
On 19 April, Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he would be visiting Kyiv soon. He said that his visit would be a symbol of showing Spain’s commitment to the Ukrainian people and government.
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
Japan
On 19 April, Japan announced that it would send masks and clothing designed to protect Ukrainians from chemical weapons and drones attacks. This would be a part of Tokyo’s latest shipment consisting of defence supplies, NBC suits, NBC masks and drones.
Ethiopia
On 19 April, Ethopians stormed the Russian embassy at Addis Ababa at a rumour that stated Russia was recruiting soldiers to fight in the war in Ukraine. The embassy’s spokeswoman, Maria Chernukhina clarified that this was not true; however, she added that the crowd showed their solidarity with Russia.
The UN
On 19 April, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for a four-day Orthodox Easter humanitarian ceasefire. He said: “Humanitarian needs are dire. People do not have food, water, supplies to treat the sick or wounded or simply to live day-to-day.” He further mentioned how a humanitarian pause would help create a safe passage for civilians willing to leave the conflict.
IMF
On 19 April, the IMF said it had cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine. In its half-yearly reports, the IMF said it had worsened significantly in the past three months as it reduced from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent. The organisation further mentioned that all members of the G7 would grow less rapidly and could even experience a significant risk.
WHO
On 19 April, WHO’s director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus condemned the attacks on healthcare workers and provisions in Ukraine. He said: "WHO unequivocally condemns the continued increase in attacks on health care in Ukraine. They must stop. To date, WHO has verified 147 attacks, including 73 people killed, and 53 injured. War will not be a solution. Once again, I call on Russia to end the war.”
References
“If our partners have the weapons Ukraine needs, their duty is to help protect freedom and the lives of people - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 19 April, 2022
“Ukraine says Mariupol 'tragedy' complicates peace efforts with Russia,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
“Russian shelling increasing in Donbas, UK military update says,” Reuters, 20 April 2022
“Ukraine says no safe corridors agreed for third successive day,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
“Ukraine receives 76 Ukrainan prisoners of war in swap with Russia,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
“Regional governor says Russian forces have seized east Ukrainian city of Kreminna,” Reuters, 19 April 2022
“Latest News in the Russia-Ukraine War,” WSJ, 19 April 2022
“Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 19 April 2022
“Ukraine war: Only third of UK’s £220m humanitarian aid delivered by 1 April,” BBC Live, 19 April 2022
“Biden ‘to announce another $800m military aid package’,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“Joe Biden says he does not know if he will visit Kyiv,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“The US is reportedly seeking to seize a superyacht suspected of belonging to a Russian oligarch that is docked in the Pacific island nation of Fiji,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“Boris Johnson reiterated a “critical need” for further military support for Ukraine in his earlier video call with Joe Biden and other world leaders,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“Britain to send armoured missile launchers to Ukraine - reports,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“Macron says his dialogue with Putin has stalled,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“The UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, has called for a four-day Orthodox Easter humanitarian pause in fighting in Ukraine, Reuters reports,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Larry Elliott, “The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia’s invasion could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), has condemned attacks on healthcare workers and provisions in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
“Japan will send masks and clothing designed to protect against chemical weapons as well as drones to Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 19 April 2022
Kalkidan Yibeltal, “Ethiopians queue at Russia embassy to enlist for war,” BBC Live, 19 April 2022
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
CYPRUS
Plans to install an electronic surveillance system to monitor migrant crossings
On 19 April, the government spokesperson, Marios Pelekanos, announced that they would be installing an electronic surveillance system in the country. This would be installed along the buffer zone that divides the island nation along ethnic lines. The system would help the government monitor illegal immigration through the breakaway north. Between 2021-and 2022, migrants crossing from the Turkish-Cypriot north to the internationally-recognised Greek-Cypriot south rose by 184 per cent. Pelekanos urged the EU to help with financial and material support for the project. (Menelaos Hadjicostis, “Cyprus plans surveillance system to stem migrant crossings,” Associated Press, 19 April 2022)
SWITZERLAND
Authorities approve cannabis pilot project
On 19 April, Switzerland approved the first cannabis pilot project and allowed a few hundred people from Basel to participate. Currently, growing, importing, producing and selling cannabis is banned in the country. The federal office of public health said that the project would help people understand “alternative regulatory forms,” that could be used as the basis for future legislation. The people consuming the substance would be regularly questioned, and their physical and mental health will be checked. However, if the cannabis from the pilot projects is sold, the people involved will be penalised and taken out of the projects. (“Swiss authorities clear 1st cannabis sale pilot project,” Associated Press, 19 April 2022)
FRANCE
Emmanuel Macron leads in polls ahead of second-round runoff
On 19 April, three polls conducted for the second round runoff came to the conclusion that president Emmanuel Macron has a lead over his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen. France will have their presidential runoff vote on Sunday, Macron got an average score of 55.83% in the polls. Prime minister Jean Castex however said, "The game is not done and dusted." Both the contenders are looking to attract those voters who voted for far-left leader Jean Luc Melenchon, who with 22% came third in the first round. Even Melenchos has not asked his followers to vote for Macron, he did say that voting for Le Pen would be a ‘colossal mistake’ (“Macron's polling lead over Le Pen widens ahead of France's Sunday runoff,” Reuters, 19 April, 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
World leaders plan to walk out at the G20 meeting as a protest against Russia
On 19 April, Reuters reported that western countries are planning to coordinate a walk-out or similar snubs, as a mark of protest against Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Washington. German, US, British and French officials have spoken about their disapproval about the attendance of the Russian delegation. This however brings up the issue of how effective G20 can be if there are such deep fault lines amongst the member nations.MF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said: "One scenario is one where we have divided blocs that are not trading much with each other, that are on different standards, and that would be a disaster for the global economy." (Andrea Shalal and David Lawder, “Delegate protests over Russia to upstage G20 meeting,” Reuters, 20 April 2022)