NIAS Area Studies: Pakistan-

02 May 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #190

War in Ukraine: Day 66 & 67

May Day demonstrations held across Europe; US crude oil replacing Russian oil in Europe

Photo : JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP

War in Ukraine: Day 66 & 67
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
Ukraine’s foreign ministry’s comments
On 01 May, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister said that the next round of European Union sanctions must include the oil embargo. Speaking to Josep Borell, a top diplomat in the EU, he also discussed the situation in Mariupol. He said: "I also emphasized there can be no alternative to granting Ukraine EU candidate status. We paid separate attention to further safe evacuation from besieged Mariupol.”

Attacks on and evacuations from Mariupol
On 30 April, President spoke about how around 100 people have been evacuated from the region safely. This has been possible because there were two days of ceasefire in the region. The evacuees will be brought to Zaporizhzhia. This news has been confirmed by the UN and the Red Cross who are also helping in coordinating the evacuation efforts.

On 01 April, Ukraine said that another round of evacuation might be possible under the given circumstances. They advised the people seeking evacuation to gather at the meeting point at 4 pm. A Reuters photographer reported that 14 more people from Mariupol arrived at a temporary accommodation centre, after leaving the Azovstal steel plant region.

Attack on Odesa airport
President Zelensky said that a newly-constructed runway at the main airport in Odesa was destroyed by Russian forces. The mayor of Odesa, Gennadiy Trukhanov spoke about how the airport has taken 10 years to build, only to be destroyed by Russian aggression. He said: "Thanks to the new runway we were expecting a colossal influx of tourists from all over the world. Instead, we got a rocket strike… But Odesa is not a city which surrenders to difficulties. We will absolutely restore the runway after our victory and even more tourists will come to us." The Russian Ministry said that they used high-precision Onyx missiles to strike the airfield.

Other developments
On 30 April, in an online posting, Ukraine's deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk informed us about the prisoner exchange with Russia. As a part of the exchange, seven soldiers and seven civilians would be coming back. She, however, did not mention how many Russians would be transferred.

On 30 April, Kyiv police found the bodies of three bound men, in Bucha, which they claim are civilians. The bodies had also sustained gunshot wounds.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Foreign Ministry’s address
On 01 May, foreign Minister Lavrov said that, unlike popular belief, the upcoming anniversary of Russia’s liberation after World War II on 9 May 1945, will not be having any consequence on the military operations in Ukraine. Lavrov, in an address to the Italian television. He said: "Our soldiers won't base their actions on a specific date… We'll commemorate our victory in a solemn manner but the timing and speed of what is happening in Ukraine will hinge on the need to minimise risks for civilians and Russian soldiers.”

Lavrov in his comments to China's news agency Xinhua said that Russia and Ukraine were discussing a possible treaty, on a daily basis over videoconferences. He said as a part of the peace talks, they have been discussing the issues of denazification and the lifting of sanctions. Ukraine’s negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak however, has denied these statements. He also mentioned that since the beginning of the war, around 2.8 million people in Ukraine have asked to be evacuated to Russia.

Defence Ministry’s update
On 30 April, Russia’s defence ministry said that four of their missiles have hit ammunition and fuel depots in Ukraine. They also mentioned that their artillery units had hit 389 Ukrainian targets overnight, which included 35 control points, 15 arms and ammunition depots, and several concentrations of Ukraine's troops and equipment. In an online post, the ministry also said that an air force strike has killed 200 of Ukraine's troops and destroyed 23 armoured vehicles.

On 01 May, Russia's defence ministry provided an update about successfully striking a depot stocked with weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States and European countries.

Attacks in Russia
On 30 April, Russia's western Kursk region witnessed the firing of several shells, at a checkpoint near the border. The governor Roman Starovoit, on his Telegram channel reported that there were no casualties or damage. Reuters also reported that Russian air defences have prevented one of Ukraine’s aircraft from entering Bryansk region, but the resultant shelling has hit portions of an oil terminal and an adjacent territory.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 01 May, house of representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi said the US pledged to continue its support to Ukraine until Kyiv wins the war. Her statements come as she visited Kyiv and met with Ukraine’s president Zelenksyy and said the US stands with Ukraine as it defends itself against “Putin’s diabolic invasion.” Pelosi added: “Our delegation travelled to Kyiv to send an unmistakable and resounding message to the entire world: America stands firmly with Ukraine.”

On the same day, US senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he would request the Biden administration to add provisions in the new proposal for the USD 33 billion Ukraine aid package. He said he wanted the US to seize and sell the Russian oligarch’s assets and use the money for Ukraine. Schumer said: “Ukraine needs all the help it can get and, simultaneously, we need all the assets we can put together to give Ukraine the aid it needs.”

On 30 April, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby lashed out at Putin and called out Moscow’s justification for invading Ukraine. He said: “I don’t think we fully appreciated the degree to which Putin would visit that kind of violence and cruelty and depravity on innocent people, on non-combatants, on civilians, with such utter disregard for the lives he was taking.”

The UK
On 30 April, the UK military reported that Russian forces were forced to merge as many units had depleted due to their failed advances in northeast Ukraine. The military reported: “Shortcomings in Russian tactical coordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements.”

Norway
On 30 April, Norway announced that it would be closing access for Russian trucks and ships as it joined the EU’s sanctions against Moscow. However, they said the Russian fishing vessels that have been landing at the ports in the northern region would be exempted from the sanctions. Norway is currently not a part of NATO but is a part of the Schengen Area.

Finland
On 01 May, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde mentioned that Finland would undoubtedly apply for membership in NATO. Linde added: “We know more or less that they (Finland) will apply for NATO membership. And that changes the whole balance...If one of our countries joins, we know that tensions would increase.” This comes as Finland’s foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said he hoped both Finland and Sweden would join the military bloc at the same time.

France
On 30 April, France’s president Emmanuel Macron said the country would increase military and humanitarian support to Ukraine. Macron spoke with Zelenksyy and reiterated his “strong concern” over Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian cities.

Germany
On 01 May, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz defended his decision to not send heavy weapons to repel Russia’s invasion. He argued that he would be more cautious than make any hasty decisions. He added: “I take my decisions fast and in concert with our partners…I find hasty actions and maverick German efforts questionable.” According to the recent polls, this further led to his approval rate falling by 32 per cent.

Greece
On 01 May, Greece experienced widespread protests in the May Day rallies. The protestors demonstrated against the rapidly increasing energy and food prices because of the war in Ukraine. Greece is also experiencing a surge in gas and power bills as the sanctions against Russia exacerbated its inflation rate to an all-time high.

Serbia
On 30 April, Serbia showed off its new Chinese made surface to air missiles and hardware it had bought from Russia in a display of support. The country seeks to show a balanced act over the War in Ukraine. President Aleksandar Vucic said: “We’re going to significantly strengthen our fighter air force ... Serbia is a neutral country and Serbia must find solutions enabling it to preserve its sky and its state.”

Turkey
On 01 May, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would continue undertaking efforts to organise meetings between Putin and Zelenskyy. Turkey’s diplomat Mevlut Cavusoglu said: "Our president is holding negotiations with both leaders.”

The Vatican
On 01 May, Pope Francis discussed the war in Ukraine as a “macabre regression of humanity” that makes him “suffer and cry”. He urged for humanitarian corridors to evacuate the people trapped in the Mariupol steelworks. He added: “My thoughts go immediately to the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the city of Mary, barbarously bombarded and destroyed.”

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war

Australia
On 30 April, Australia’s Olympic Committee(AOC) said it would help and support Ukrainian athletes seeking to resettle in Australia on humanitarian grounds. AOC President John Coates said: “Today I announced that the AOC executive has by circular resolution last week, determined that the AOC will support humanitarian visa applications by Ukrainian athletes and will seek the assistance of you, our member sports, in their settlement requirements.”

China
On 01 May, China’s regulators held a meeting to prepare and protect China’s overseas assets from potential US sanctions. China wants to prepare for US-led sections that it imposed on Russia.

Kenya
On 01 May, Kenya’s president announced that he would hike the country’s minimum wage by 12 per cent. He said he had increased the minimum wage to help workers cope with the surge in consumer prices which were caused by the war in Ukraine. The president's office said: “There is a compelling case to review the minimum wage so as to cushion our workers against further erosion of their purchasing power.”

The UN
On 01 May, UN chief Antonio Guterres called for a debt relief package for countries in Africa. The debt relief package would help the countries to recover from the devastation caused by COVID-19, climate change and the War in Ukraine. He mentioned how the supply chain disruptions had caused a simultaneous increase in food, energy and inflation in Africa. Guterres added: “International financial institutions must urgently put in place debt relief measures by increasing liquidity and fiscal space, so that governments can avoid default and invest in social safety nets and sustainable development.”

On the same day, the UN said it was trying to create a safe passage for civilians stuck in Azovstal steelworks. UN spokesperson Saviano Abreu said: “The operation began on 29 April and is being coordinated with the International Committee of the Red Cross, Russia and Ukraine.”

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav

SERBIA
Serbia flaunting its Chinese and Russian imported weaponry
On 30 April, Serbia flaunted Chinese and Russian military weaponry publicly. Serbia displayed the weapons at the Batajnica military airfield near Belgrade. Serbia imported defence systems from Russia, China, the US and France. It showed off its defence to the media and the public. Even though Serbia wants to join NATO, they also have a long relationship with Russia. Most of the defence system that Serbia uses now is that of ex-Soviet technology. Most of the European nations especially Germany warned Serbia to align its interests with the EU if Serbia wants to become its member. Serbia is seen showing signs of distancing itself from Russia and China by buying weaponry from the UK and France. (Aleksandar Vasovic, “Serbia shows off new Chinese missiles in display of military power,” Reuters, 2 May 2022)

THE UK
Local authorities aim to develop climate action plans to reduce emissions
On 01 May, the BBC examined the role and powers of local councils in the UK to control emissions and tackle climate change. It may play a significant part in the upcoming municipal elections. The council’s first step after declaring a “climate emergency” is to create an action plan outlining the measures to reduce emissions. BBC suggests local authorities can build charging ports in lamp posts and parking spaces for electric vehicles to help residents. Most local councils have their own housing development companies and private partnerships, enabling them to install insulation and other energy-saving measures for energy-efficient housing. Further, the report suggested the promotion of onshore wind turbines and local green networks to reduce energy costs. Councils can also reduce the climate impact by systematic waste collection and recycling. (“Elections 2022: How are local councils tackling climate change?,” BBC, 01 May 2022)

REGIONAL
May Day demonstrations held across Europe turns violent in Paris and Berlin
On 01 May, traditional May Day demonstrations were held across Europe, while Paris and Berlin witnessed political and violent protests. On the eve of the peaceful march in Paris, a small group of people dressed in black, called “black bloc” anarchists, shattered windows of businesses and attacked cash dispensers while lighting dumpsters on fire. Simultaneously, a feminist march, known as Walpurgisnacht, started their rallies in Berlin, with a group of 2,500 marching to “take back the night.” According to the organisers, the rally’s purpose was to reclaim the night for women, lesbians, intersex, and transgender people. Thousands more took to the streets around the country to protest various issues, including the conflict in Ukraine, the rising cost of living, workers’ rights, rental regulations, and plans to increase military spending substantially. (Angelique Chrisafis, “May Day marches across France send pensions message to Macron,” The Guardian, 01 May 2022; Kate Conolly, “Feminist’ witch’ protest kicks off May Day protests in Berlin,” The Guardian, 01 May 2022)

Berlin files a case against Rome on filing compensation for Nazi-era war crimes
On 30 April, Germany lodged a case against Italy at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for allowing its domestic courts to try Nazi-era war crimes and claim compensation. A 2012 ICJ ruling confirms that Germany has legal immunity from being sued for reparations in foreign courts by victims of Nazi war crimes in breach of their human rights. Despite the 2012 ruling, more than 25 additional compensation claims against the German state were filed in Italy. Berlin claims it is filing the complaint now because of two ongoing trials in which German state-owned properties in Rome might be auctioned to fund compensation payments. The ICJ can take years to rule; however, Germany has urged the court to take steps to prevent Italy from auctioning any property while the case is being tried. (“Germany takes Italy to UN court over Nazi-era compensation claims,” BBC, 30 April 2022)

Russia’s response to the EU sanction troubles Europe
On 28 April, the European Commission warned Russian gas buyers to not breach sanctions if the payments are converted into Roubles. Gazprom, a Russian gas company had cut supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, earlier last week after they refused to pay for gas in Roubles. This was a statement against the sanctions imposed by the West for Russia invading Ukraine. Last month, a decree was issued by president Vladimir Putin stating that any country that Moscow deems unfriendly has to pay in roubles for gas. Buyers have to deposit into an account at Gazprombank which then converts Dollars or Euros into Roubles and then proceedings are placed in another account of the buyer which makes it possible for the payment in Russian currency. This system will brake some of the EU sanctions imposed on Russia. The EU countries demanded clearer information from the officials on this issue. (Kate Abnett and Francesco Guarascio, “Europe struggles for clarity on Russia's roubles-for-gas scheme,” Reuters, 2 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
US light crude oil: An alternative to Russian oil
On 29 April, Europe had been importing light crude oil from the US as an alternative to Russian energy imports. Buyers and refiners from Europe have imported almost 1.5 million barrels of crude per day from the US. Most are light sweet grade crude oil which is exported to countries like Spain, the UK, Denmark and Italy. Due to Russia invading Ukraine, Europe has struggled to embargo the Russian energy supply as it constitutes 45 per cent of its energy imports. To reduce importing oil from Russia, they turned towards the US for the favour. The flow of oil from the US to Europe has decreased the flow bound to Asia, Latin America and Canada. European countries are buying this crude oil in large quantities at lower prices. (Arathy Somasekhar and Stephanie Kelly, “More of Europe's crude supply is coming from deep in the heart of Texas,” Reuters, 29 April 2022)

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